Change in the Weather: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (7)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 5:14 AM GMT on November 19, 2013

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Change in the Weather: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (7)

This is the end-for-a-while of my series on the Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation. Links to background material and previous entries are below.

At the end of the previous blog I showed the following figure. The top panel shows the observed Arctic Oscillation Index from 1864 to 1960. The middle panel shows the observed Arctic Oscillation Index from 1864 to about 2000. The little number “r” in the panel is a measure of how well one year’s Arctic Oscillation Index is linked to or correlated with the previous year’s. A number close to zero is a measure of being unrelated. Prior to 1960, the observations were almost unrelated from year to year (r=-0.03). After 1960 there is a much stronger relation (r=0.4). Just looking at the graph after 1960, you can convince yourself that the Arctic Oscillation stays stuck in one mode or another for several years.



Figure 1: The top two plots in the figure show the observed Arctic Oscillation Index. The bottom plot shows a model simulation of the Arctic Oscillation Index. See text for more description. Thanks to Jim Hurrell

The bottom panel of Figure 1 shows a model simulation with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model. In this model simulation the model’s carbon dioxide is held constant at levels prior to the industrial revolution, when man-made carbon dioxide was quite small. This simulation does not represent any particular year; it is 200 years which when taken together might look, statistically, like the atmosphere. An interesting feature of this simulation is that the Arctic Oscillation does look like the observations before 1960, but not after 1960. One possible suggestion of the reason why the model loses its ability represent the behavior of the Arctic oscillation is that carbon dioxide has increased enough to change the Arctic Oscillation.

I will come back to this below, but first a reminder of the other ideas I introduced in the middle part of the series. Most importantly, there is a stream of air that wants to flow around the North Pole. Likely in a world that has no mountains, no land and water sitting next to each other, then that air would actually circulate with the pole in the center. We live in a world with mountains and oceans and continents, which distort this stream of air. It’s a little like boulders in a creek, and water going around the boulders. The stream becomes wavy. There are other factors that also cause the air to be wavy, but I have introduced enough to make my points, and you can go back to the earlier blogs linked at the bottom for words and pictures. What causes the air to spin around the North Pole? The first thing to consider is the rotation of the Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere wants to line up with the rotation. Another important factor in determining the details of the air circulating around the North Pole is heating and cooling. The patterns of heating and cooling contribute to setting up high-pressure and low-pressure systems. Air flows from high to low pressure and as it flows towards low pressure it does its best to line up with the rotation of the Earth. This relation between high and low pressure and the Earth’s rotation is one of the most important features of the motion of the air in the atmosphere and the water in the ocean.

The way carbon dioxide changes the Earth’s climate is by changing the heating and cooling. A common comparison is to compare additional carbon dioxide to a a blanket which holds the Sun’s heat closer to the Earth’s surface. This blanket causes the Earth to heat up more at the pole than at the Equator. The poles are also special because the Sun goes down for the winter and it cools off. In fact, it gets very cold, and as discussed in the previous blogs, the stream of air that gets spun up isolates the pole enough to let the cooling really get going. With these changes to heating and cooling, if we add a lot of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, then it is reasonable to expect that the Arctic Oscillation might change.

The studies prior to, say, 2008, suggested that the effect of carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere would be to cause the Arctic Oscillation Index to become more positive. This would be the pattern of the Arctic Oscillation where the cold air is confined to the pole; that is, the less wavy pattern (scientific references: for example, Kuzmina et al. 2005 and the 2007 IPCC AR-4). The studies prior to 2008 support the idea that the additional carbon dioxide is a leading suspect in the changes after 1960 noted in Figure 1. That is, without carbon dioxide increasing in the simulation, the models cannot reproduce the statistical characteristics of the observations and with it increasing, they can.

Those pre-2008 studies, effectively, only considered increasing carbon dioxide. They did not represent the huge changes in the surface of the Arctic that have been observed. Notably, sea ice and snow cover have declined. These surface changes also cause changes in heating and cooling. The decline of sea-ice, for example, changes the surface of the Arctic Ocean from white to dark. This changes the surface from a reflector of energy to an absorber of energy. Sea ice is also a temperature insulator; hence, without the ice the ocean and atmosphere exchange heat more easily. There are many other changes as well, but all I want to do here is establish the plausibility that large changes at the surface are also likely to change the behavior of the Arctic Oscillation. Why? Changes in the patterns of heating and cooling, leading to changes in high and low pressure systems, which then with the influence of the Earth’s rotation, change the waviness of the stream of air around the Arctic.

There have been a series of papers in the past couple of years that suggest that the changes in sea ice and snow cover are having large effects on the weather in the U.S. If you look across these papers, then there is growing evidence that the meanders (or waviness) of the Arctic Oscillation are getting larger and that storms over the U.S. are moving more slowly. Here is a list of quotes from these papers.

From a paper I have previously discussed:

Francis and Vavrus (2012): Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes - “Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.”

Liu et al. (2012): Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

Greene et al. (2012): Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events? - “However, there is increasing evidence that the loss of summertime Arctic sea ice due to greenhouse warming stacks the deck in favor of (1) larger amplitude meanders in the jet stream, (2) more frequent invasions of Arctic air masses into the middle latitudes, and (3) more frequent blocking events of the kind that steered Sandy to the west.”

There is some controversy about the work connecting the changes in the sea ice and snow cover to changes in the Arctic Oscillation and to changes in extreme weather in the U.S. (Barnes (2013): Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes, Francis response, and Freedman @ Climate Central ).

I think there is significant merit in the work that connects changes in the Arctic Oscillation to increases in carbon dioxide and related changes to the surface of the Earth. Part of my intuition comes from a career of working with atmosphere models. If a model is radiatively dominated, then the vortex over the pole is very strong. In this case, there is little waviness in the jet stream. This is analogous to the case of increasing carbon dioxide and the Arctic Oscillation becoming more common in its positive phase. If a model is less driven by radiative forcing, then it is easier for the waves that are initiated by the flow over the mountains to grow and distort the edge of the jet stream – more waviness. This is like the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Though in the end it will require a careful calculation of the energy budget, the removal of sea ice from the surface of the Arctic Ocean allows more heat into the polar atmosphere, which means the radiative cooling will be less intense. Hence, the vortex will be weaker or the Arctic Oscillation will more commonly be in its negative phase. If there are changes in the Arctic Oscillation, which are realized as changes in the waviness and speed of the jet stream around the Arctic, then there will certainly be consequences to the weather in the U.S.

Potential changes in the character of the Arctic Oscillation are an important issue for those thinking about how to respond to climate change. The loss of sea ice is a large change, which will undoubtedly have important impacts in the Arctic. It is reasonable to expect large impacts on weather at lower latitudes, in the U.S., Europe and Asia. The change in the Arctic sea ice has happened very rapidly. This challenges the assumption often made in planning that climate change is a slow, incremental process. The weather of the here and now and/or the next fifty years, a common length of time for planning, is likely to be quite different from the past fifty years. Since we rely on our past experience to plan for the future, this is a direct challenge to our innate planning strategies. If we are cognizant of the possibility of significant changes to weather patterns on decadal lengths of time, then we can develop new planning strategies that will improve our resilience and make our adaptation decisions more effective.

r

Previous entries:

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”


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Quoting 477. georgevandenberghe:


I too am replacing CFL with LED as the former fail. There is only one catch, reported by a MN friend. His LED lights emit RF frequency that interferes with his garage door opener. I've not observed this personally but my garage door opens the old fashioned way, by hand.


At the time I did research on LED lighting, I read similar accounts. I believe it is not the actual LED causing the interference, but rather there is modulation drive electronics at the power management component of the bulb. This can cause interference at the 30-300MHz, coincidentally the operating range of some of the older garage door openers. With that said, many of the newer LED bulbs have addressed this problem through better shielding of the electronics components. To be honest, if I were in the situation where RF interference were affecting my garage door opener I would be concerned about a bigger security issue. I would either most likely upgrade the opener or its computer board to a multi-band frequency or investigate a shielding system for my existing opener. If I recall, when I was a kid there were a few houses where our RC cars would open up the garages. We thought that was pretty cool at the time. :)
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Science Museum Declines To Show Climate Change Film



"A premier science museum in North Carolina has sparked controversy by refusing to show an hour long film about climate change and rising sea levels. The museum may be in a bit of a delicate position. It is part of a state agency, the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. The state government has been perceived as hostile to action on climate change; last year, the legislature passed a bill forbidding the state coastal commission from defining rates of sea-level rise for regulation before 2016."

SlashDot.org

ScienceMag.org
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Quoting 485. Creideiki:


Huh. I'm trying to remember why a diode would affect radio frequency from classes and coming up blank.

The Christmas lights we had on our tree last year did not affect the WiFi within our apartment...

I only saw one thing that said that the LED's can effect the retina negatively--of course, if that's the case, then uh, why not change the shield material? Seems more luddite malarkey than anything. Especially since LED's have been everywhere for decades without the ill-effect.


A trivial google search revealed that the circuitry within the lights emits at 250-300MhZ which is the range garage door openers use. This circuitry converts the AC line voltage to DC and steps it down (a lot.. LEDs typically run at a voltage difference of about 3 volts). Besides these results I trust my friend who is no luddite (I am much more.. I believe in controlling my house, appliances and other tech by hand.)

But every socket that I can fit one in is going to get an LED bulb as the CFL's wear out.
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Quoting 488. barbamz:
Two extracts, concerning environment and science, of the new programmatic document by Pope Francis (head of a church with 1.2 billion members), which was published today, November 26:

"...215. There are other weak and defenceless beings who are frequently at the mercy of economic interests or indiscriminate exploitation. I am speaking of creation as a whole. We human beings are not only the beneficiaries but also the stewards of other creatures. Thanks to our bodies, God has joined us so closely to the world around us that we can feel the desertification of the soil almost as a physical ailment, and the extinction of a species as a painful disfigurement. Let us not leave in our wake a swath of destruction and death which will affect our own lives and those of future generations. Here I would make my own the touching and prophetic lament voiced some years ago by the bishops of the Philippines: “An incredible variety of insects lived in the forest and were busy with all kinds of tasks… Birds flew through the air, their bright plumes and varying calls adding color and song to the green of the forests… God intended this land for us, his special creatures, but not so that we might destroy it and turn it into a wasteland… After a single night’s rain, look at the chocolate brown rivers in your locality and remember that they are carrying the life blood of the land into the sea… How can fish swim in sewers like the Pasig and so many more rivers which we have polluted? Who has turned the wonderworld of the seas into underwater cemeteries bereft of color and life?” ...

Dialogue between faith, reason and science

242. Dialogue between science and faith also belongs to the work of evangelization at the service of peace. Whereas positivism and scientism “refuse to admit the validity of forms of knowledge other than those of the positive sciences”, the Church proposes another path, which calls for a synthesis between the responsible use of methods proper to the empirical sciences and other areas of knowledge such as philosophy, theology, as well as faith itself, which elevates us to the mystery transcending nature and human intelligence. Faith is not fearful of reason; on the contrary, it seeks and trusts reason, since “the light of reason and the light of faith both come from God” and cannot contradict each other. Evangelization is attentive to scientific advances and wishes to shed on them the light of faith and the natural law so that they will remain respectful of the centrality and supreme value of the human person at every stage of life. All of society can be enriched thanks to this dialogue, which opens up new horizons for thought and expands the possibilities of reason. This too is a path of harmony and peace.

243. The Church has no wish to hold back the marvellous progress of science. On the contrary, she rejoices and even delights in acknowledging the enormous potential that God has given to the human mind. Whenever the sciences – rigorously focused on their specific field of inquiry – arrive at a conclusion which reason cannot refute, faith does not contradict it. Neither can believers claim that a scientific opinion which is attractive but not sufficiently verified has the same weight as a dogma of faith. At times some scientists have exceeded the limits of their scientific competence by making certain statements or claims. But here the problem is not with reason itself, but with the promotion of a particular ideology which blocks the path to authentic, serene and productive dialogue. ..."


It's good to see such pronouncements . . . and did not expect anything less from a Jesuit.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 485. Creideiki:


Huh. I'm trying to remember why a diode would affect radio frequency from classes and coming up blank.

The Christmas lights we had on our tree last year did not affect the WiFi within our apartment...

I only saw one thing that said that the LED's can effect the retina negatively--of course, if that's the case, then uh, why not change the shield material? Seems more luddite malarkey than anything. Especially since LED's have been everywhere for decades without the ill-effect.

Probably something more to do with the garage door system or the garage door opening that somehow got attributed to the light.
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Two extracts, concerning environment and science, of the new programmatic document by Pope Francis (head of a church with 1.2 billion members), which was published today, November 26:

"...215. There are other weak and defenceless beings who are frequently at the mercy of economic interests or indiscriminate exploitation. I am speaking of creation as a whole. We human beings are not only the beneficiaries but also the stewards of other creatures. Thanks to our bodies, God has joined us so closely to the world around us that we can feel the desertification of the soil almost as a physical ailment, and the extinction of a species as a painful disfigurement. Let us not leave in our wake a swath of destruction and death which will affect our own lives and those of future generations. Here I would make my own the touching and prophetic lament voiced some years ago by the bishops of the Philippines: “An incredible variety of insects lived in the forest and were busy with all kinds of tasks… Birds flew through the air, their bright plumes and varying calls adding color and song to the green of the forests… God intended this land for us, his special creatures, but not so that we might destroy it and turn it into a wasteland… After a single night’s rain, look at the chocolate brown rivers in your locality and remember that they are carrying the life blood of the land into the sea… How can fish swim in sewers like the Pasig and so many more rivers which we have polluted? Who has turned the wonderworld of the seas into underwater cemeteries bereft of color and life?” ...

Dialogue between faith, reason and science

242. Dialogue between science and faith also belongs to the work of evangelization at the service of peace. Whereas positivism and scientism “refuse to admit the validity of forms of knowledge other than those of the positive sciences”, the Church proposes another path, which calls for a synthesis between the responsible use of methods proper to the empirical sciences and other areas of knowledge such as philosophy, theology, as well as faith itself, which elevates us to the mystery transcending nature and human intelligence. Faith is not fearful of reason; on the contrary, it seeks and trusts reason, since “the light of reason and the light of faith both come from God” and cannot contradict each other. Evangelization is attentive to scientific advances and wishes to shed on them the light of faith and the natural law so that they will remain respectful of the centrality and supreme value of the human person at every stage of life. All of society can be enriched thanks to this dialogue, which opens up new horizons for thought and expands the possibilities of reason. This too is a path of harmony and peace.

243. The Church has no wish to hold back the marvellous progress of science. On the contrary, she rejoices and even delights in acknowledging the enormous potential that God has given to the human mind. Whenever the sciences – rigorously focused on their specific field of inquiry – arrive at a conclusion which reason cannot refute, faith does not contradict it. Neither can believers claim that a scientific opinion which is attractive but not sufficiently verified has the same weight as a dogma of faith. At times some scientists have exceeded the limits of their scientific competence by making certain statements or claims. But here the problem is not with reason itself, but with the promotion of a particular ideology which blocks the path to authentic, serene and productive dialogue. ..."
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A major new study blows up the whole notion of natural gas as a short-term bridge fuel to a carbon-free economy.

Natural gas is mostly methane (CH4), a potent heat-trapping gas. If, as now seems likely, natural gas production systems leak 2.7% (or more), then gas-fired power loses its near-term advantage over coal and becomes more of a gangplank than a bridge. Worse, without a carbon price, some gas displaces renewable energy, further undercutting any benefit it might have had.
Fifteen scientists from some of the leading institutions in the world — including Harvard, NOAA and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab — have published a seminal study, “Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States.” Crucially, it is based on “comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model,” rather than the industry-provided numbers EPA uses.
Indeed, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study by Scot Miller et al takes the unusual step of explicitly criticizing the EPA:
The US EPA recently decreased its CH4 emission factors for fossil fuel extraction and processing by 25–30% (for 1990–2011), but we find that CH4 data from across North America instead indicate the need for a larger adjustment of the opposite sign.


Read More at Think Progress ...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3165
Quoting 485. Creideiki:


Huh. I'm trying to remember why a diode would affect radio frequency from classes and coming up blank.

The Christmas lights we had on our tree last year did not affect the WiFi within our apartment...

I only saw one thing that said that the LED's can effect the retina negatively--of course, if that's the case, then uh, why not change the shield material? Seems more luddite malarkey than anything. Especially since LED's have been everywhere for decades without the ill-effect.
"Luddite malarkey". Isn't that the theme of next year's Heartland Institute conference?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
Quoting 477. georgevandenberghe:


I too am replacing CFL with LED as the former fail. There is only one catch, reported by a MN friend. His LED lights emit RF frequency that interferes with his garage door opener. I've not observed this personally but my garage door opens the old fashioned way, by hand.


Huh. I'm trying to remember why a diode would affect radio frequency from classes and coming up blank.

The Christmas lights we had on our tree last year did not affect the WiFi within our apartment...

I only saw one thing that said that the LED's can effect the retina negatively--of course, if that's the case, then uh, why not change the shield material? Seems more luddite malarkey than anything. Especially since LED's have been everywhere for decades without the ill-effect.
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Ain't that the truth!
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3165
From InsideClimate News:

VIDEO - Shattered by Oil: Exxon Arkansas Spill and the People Left Behind, Part 2

Fears for the future: About one in four people in Arkansas counts on drinking water from a source that is crossed by Exxon's burst Pegasus pipeline.

By Elizabeth McGowan

Nov 26, 2013

On March 29, 2013, ExxonMobil's 850-mile Pegasus oil pipeline split open and spilled 210,000 gallons of Canadian dilbit across an Arkansas suburb.

The oil spill was a wake-up call about aging pipelines and specifically the Pegasus, a 65-year-old line that most people near the spill site didn't even know existed. The pipe crisscrosses 13 Arkansas counties and 18 drinking water sources on its way to Texas—including the Maumelle watershed, a water source for 400,000 people in Central Arkansas. The rupture happened just eight pipeline miles from Maumelle.

In Part 2 of "Shattered by Oil"—an ICN co-production with This American Land—Pulitzer Prize-winner Elizabeth McGowan talks with water utility officials, residents and others about the "what-ifs"—and about how they're working to get the pipeline relocated or shut down for good.



This video is part of a joint investigative project by InsideClimate News and the Arkansas Times. Funding for the project comes from readers who donated to an ioby.org crowdfunding campaign that raised nearly $27,000 and from the Fund for Investigative Journalism.

See also

VIDEO - Shattered by Oil: Exxon Arkansas Spill and the People Left Behind, Part 1

InsideClimate News' comprehensive coverage of the Exxon oil spill in Arkansas.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting 480. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

Sorry to hear about your friend. It's awful when that kind of thing hits at all; and it's terrifying when it worsens rapidly.

I'm doing fine, considering my age and background. I think that I may be less cranky than I was a few years ago. That does cause me concern since a trend in that direction could theoretically cause me to be a nice guy at some point. Then how do I keep the relatives away, you know?

I'm glad you're enjoying your car. I lost much of my interest in cars after they told me I couldn't repair autos with dynamite. I swear, some zoning ordinances are unConstitutional. If a man can't blow up his own car in his own driveway...well, that's just oppression, no? :)

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469




Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 468. Birthmark:

It means that the Moon Landings were a hoax, right?

Where and how have you been, Rookie?


I am doing fine, Birthmark. I have been taking some time off from trying to explain what the science tells us concerning climate change to those that are unwilling to understand. Or, if they do understand, could care less about it as long as they get to party any which way they choose to do so and without regards to the reality of the forth coming problems climate change will bring to our future generations. ....... Then I read all of nonsense they will post and have to interject with a dash of reality again.

I have been busy. A friend of mine was recently diagnosed with Parkinson's disease. She started off with a her right hand beginning to shake and within two months her right arm was beginning to shake. She recently has been having trouble with getting her legs to move right. She has a fast progressing form of Parkinson's and the doctors do not know if it will continue to progress at a fast pace or if it will reach a plateau soon and slow down. At this time, it is unknown.

On a lighter note, I have been restoring a Base V6 1999 Camaro. The car was already in great shape when I got, but it needed some mostly cosmetic work done on it due to the former owner's attempts to make some repairs and only made the matters worse. ... A labor of love for me.

Not mine, but it looks nearly identical to mine.

I am pleased to see many of the familiar people are still here and dismayed that a few here will never admit to the reality of what we are doing to the climate. Let alone how we are changing the world in other less than positive ways.

How are you and everyone else here doing? Well, I will hope. I just ask each of you to continue the great work that you doing here. I shall rejoin the fray soon.
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Thanks Pat... scary stuff given their track record for safety and then obstruction after the fact. All for something less than 75 jobs, they want to endanger the last healthy inlet on the Indian River lagoon, and subject our citizens to the benzene and other fumes. All the tankers with oil on their decks and our frequent rain.. naaaa, there wouldn't be any oil slicks anywhere...

ohhh, and they are in an area that has a clean deep fetch to the open ocean which is just two miles from the mouth of the inlet. Rollers travel a mile into the inlet on a normal day... add 15 feet of surge and rollers on that and the same sort of assault directly on the tanks and the same leakage you had could occur here.
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Quoting 476. indianrivguy:
403. JohnLonergan 5:04 PM EST on November 24, 2013

nice video John, thanks.


475. Xandra 7:51 PM EST on November 25, 2013

I have something important up on my FB page I want to stand alone tonight, but I will be posting this video tomorrow.. They are trying to sneak in without public process, a petroleum tank farm in the Port of Ft. Pierce. Thanks for posting the video!


Saw one that failed here in Chalmette during K when the water caved them. Crude all in the Suburban Hood.

so..........,


This street in Chalmette, a suburb southeast of New Orleans, was not only flooded by Hurricane Katrina, but it also was covered in contaminants from a nearby oil refinery spill.

The case of benzene
At issue is how to test for contaminants inside homes, on streets and in lawns, and then how to publicize those results.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting 471. calkevin77:


I replaced all the antiquated bulbs in my house with CFLs years ago. They are affordable now and many providers even give them away free so there is no excuse not to replace old bulbs with CFLs at the very least.

As for LED lights, I personally find them to be superior as they have a longer lifespan. Great in areas that are tough to reach like outside porch lights 20 feet up and other precarious locations. I have also replaced many of the switches in my house with motion sensing devices (laundry room, garage, and other low-medium traffic rooms.) As for lighting and aesthetics, dimmable CFLs and LED's are great. Special dimming switches made for these type of bulbs help eliminate previous issues with lights not staying on or the dimming range being too low. Long story short, it may cost a little more as an initial investment to replace bulbs and switches but the power consumption reduction will offset that cost in no time.

While I haven't validated the stats/math, this sounds accurate and is good enough for me:

In the US, the average carbon emission is about 1.34 lbs. of CO2 ever kilo watt hour. We know for a fact that replacing incandescent lamps with LED lamps on the basis of comparative luminosity, we effectively replace a 75 watt bulb with a 7 watt bulb. This saving of 68 watts can be translated into watt hours as follows:

If we presume a LED bulb is used 12 hours a day, then its lifetime will be around 50000 hours. Thus the total usage saved is about 68 times 50000, which is 3400 kilo watt hour. At the rate of 1.34 lbs. of Carbon dioxide per kilo watt hour, we effectively save about 4556 lbs. of carbon dioxide per LED bulb.


Source: http://trickstree.com/led-lights-erasing-your-foot prints/


I too am replacing CFL with LED as the former fail. There is only one catch, reported by a MN friend. His LED lights emit RF frequency that interferes with his garage door opener. I've not observed this personally but my garage door opens the old fashioned way, by hand.
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403. JohnLonergan 5:04 PM EST on November 24, 2013

nice video John, thanks.


475. Xandra 7:51 PM EST on November 25, 2013

I have something important up on my FB page I want to stand alone tonight, but I will be posting this video tomorrow.. They are trying to sneak in without public process, a petroleum tank farm in the Port of Ft. Pierce. Thanks for posting the video!
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From InsideClimate News:

VIDEO - Shattered by Oil: Exxon Arkansas Spill and the People Left Behind, Part 1

'It's too late for anything to happen. It's too late for us. We want them to get this mess cleaned up and get it cleaned up right.'

By Elizabeth McGowan

Nov 25, 2013



Sign marking ExxonMobil's Pegasus oil pipeline in Mayflower, Ark. When the line burst on March 29, few if any residents knew the pipeline was buried under their lawns. Credit: InsideClimate News and This American Land

On March 29, 2013, an ExxonMobil oil pipeline that runs under a tiny residential neighborhood in Mayflower, Ark. split open and spilled 210,000 gallons of Canadian dilbit across backyards and streets and in waterways.

InsideClimate News spent months reporting the spill on the ground. In Part 1 of "Shattered by Oil"—an ICN co-production with This American Land—Pulitzer Prize winner Elizabeth McGowan returns to Mayflower, Ark., to explore the fate of residents who are living with the effects of the oil disaster and trying to piece together their lives.



This video is part of a joint investigative project by InsideClimate News and the Arkansas Times. Funding for the project comes from readers who donated to an ioby.org crowdfunding campaign that raised nearly $27,000 and from the Fund for Investigative Journalism.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting 454. no1der:
"Record-breaking recovery" ?

or dead-cat bounce?





I don't think a dead cat would bounce that far.... It's more like a dead cat splat..
.
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From Climate Crocks:

New Video: Links Between Big Tobacco and Climate Denial – "Rhymes with Smoky Joe"

November 25, 2013



"Smokey Joe" Barton is known for apologizing to BP after the 2010 Oil spill, and harassing climate scientists.

Turns out he’s also been a key connection between the tobacco industry and the climate denial industry. Archival footage from ABC News on the tobacco wars of the 90s turns up sequences of Smoky Joe in action on behalf of Big Cancer, digs up haunting parallels between the tactics of Big Tobacco and Big Fossil Fuel, and reminds us of the origins of the anti-science movement.
Poignant to see the late Peter Jennings in action, and remember what it was like when there was at least some tough, probing journalism with a moral compass on mainstream media.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting 461. no1der:
I've just redone all the living areas in my house with LED ceiling cans and LED wall sconces, and I'm very pleased with the results. The latest LED ceiling trims (not the bulb-form replacements) give a nice white light with no outline of the emitters visible through the diffuser. The overall effect makes CFLs seem like a transitional technology.
One factor beside cost is the quality of the light. A good test is if food still looks appetizing under your chosen lighting. Some CFLs have a color temperature very different from incandescent or the better LED sources.
If you are redoing your lighting from scratch, I'd definitely recommend going straight to LED. 




I replaced all the antiquated bulbs in my house with CFLs years ago. They are affordable now and many providers even give them away free so there is no excuse not to replace old bulbs with CFLs at the very least.

As for LED lights, I personally find them to be superior as they have a longer lifespan. Great in areas that are tough to reach like outside porch lights 20 feet up and other precarious locations. I have also replaced many of the switches in my house with motion sensing devices (laundry room, garage, and other low-medium traffic rooms.) As for lighting and aesthetics, dimmable CFLs and LED's are great. Special dimming switches made for these type of bulbs help eliminate previous issues with lights not staying on or the dimming range being too low. Long story short, it may cost a little more as an initial investment to replace bulbs and switches but the power consumption reduction will offset that cost in no time.

While I haven't validated the stats/math, this sounds accurate and is good enough for me:

In the US, the average carbon emission is about 1.34 lbs. of CO2 ever kilo watt hour. We know for a fact that replacing incandescent lamps with LED lamps on the basis of comparative luminosity, we effectively replace a 75 watt bulb with a 7 watt bulb. This saving of 68 watts can be translated into watt hours as follows:

If we presume a LED bulb is used 12 hours a day, then its lifetime will be around 50000 hours. Thus the total usage saved is about 68 times 50000, which is 3400 kilo watt hour. At the rate of 1.34 lbs. of Carbon dioxide per kilo watt hour, we effectively save about 4556 lbs. of carbon dioxide per LED bulb.


Source: http://trickstree.com/led-lights-erasing-your-foot prints/
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4 Hiroshima bombs per second: a widget to raise awareness about global warming

Our planet is building up a lot of heat. When scientists add up all the heat warming the oceans, land, atmosphere and melting the ice, they calculate that our planet is accumulating heat at a rate of 2.5x1014 Watts. This is equivalent to 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second.

When I mention this in public talks, I see eyes as wide as saucers. Few people are aware of how much heat our climate system is absorbing. To actively communicate our planet's energy imbalance, Skeptical Science is releasing the Skeptical Science Heat Widget.

The widget can be added to just about any blog or web site. You can customise the colour of the widget, the style of the design and even the year from which the heat graph begins. It's the result of months of diligent programming and testing by SkS team member Bob Lacatena (Sphaerica). If you have a webpage or blog, here's an opportunity to help raise awareness of global warming.

If you don't have a website but are on Facebook, Bob has also put together a Facebook app and an app for the iPad and iPhone. For complete instructions on how to get and install the widget on your blog or web site, visit the Skeptical Science Widgets page.

The widget shows the amount of energy that has been and continues to be added to the earth's climate system, expressed in ways that non-scientists can more easily relate to. Meanwhile, the counter actively increases with time, showing exactly how much and how fast the planet continues to warm.

For more information on the science behind the heat in the climate system, visit the widget's companion site, 4hiroshimas.com.

Read more >>
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Quoting 467. RevElvis:


Jorb - The New Yorker

That's a very funny cartoon, but I'd better point out that the planet will be fine. Otherwise, we'll hear all manner of...stuff.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 465. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Mondays never seem to be good days.

US methane emissions far exceed government estimates, study reports

I am certain that the denial industry puppets will show no concern over this, but the better informed will know the implications for what this means.

It means that the Moon Landings were a hoax, right?

Where and how have you been, Rookie?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469


Jorb - The New Yorker
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
New Faultlines Widen at UN Climate Talks



Fraught UN climate talks revealed growing frustration this week among vulnerable nations and observers with the political stance of emerging economies like China and India in the battle to stave off dangerous Earth warming.

As the global balance of economic and political clout shifts, the world of climate negotiations is no longer a simple standoff between developed and developing nations.

Some fear a growing divide within the developing bloc will see the voice of poor, climate-vulnerable nations increasingly drowned out, further complicating the quest for an Earth rescue plan.

"This year's talks have highlighted a growing divide between poor developing countries that stand to lose the most from the lack of action on climate change, and countries that seem willing to hold up progress for tactical reasons," summed up the Environmental Investigation Agency advocacy group.

CrooksandLiars.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Mondays never seem to be good days.

US methane emissions far exceed government estimates, study reports

I am certain that the denial industry puppets will show no concern over this, but the better informed will know the implications for what this means.
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Quoting 463. Creideiki:


First question: Where (state/region) are you?

We use CFL inside and LED outdoors. Of course, the main outdoor stuff we do is Christmas lighting.


Eastern WV, on a mountain side. It gets pretty cold most winters, but we are only at 1200' so not as bad as the ridge tops.
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Quoting 458. goosegirl1:



Which lighting does everyone here use? I am gathering information to try and justify all LED to the other half of the paying occupants :)


First question: Where (state/region) are you? In Denver, we can stay to a somewhat comfortable temperature during the winter. The furnace has kicked on two days so far this fall.

We use CFL inside and LED outdoors. Of course, the main outdoor stuff we do is Christmas lighting.
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'Petcoke,' Oil Refinery Waste, Raises Residents' Ire In Midwest



There's a new environmental concern in America's heartland.

Huge black piles of petroleum coke are accumulating along Midwest shipping channels, raising concerns about how it could affect public health.

Petroleum coke, or "petcoke" is a byproduct of oil refining that's burned as a fuel by some industries.

It appeared in Detroit and Chicago neighborhoods this year after nearby refineries expanded to handle a glut of heavy crude oil coming from Canada's oil sands region.

That oil has been trapped in the Midwest because of limited pipeline capacity to the South and West coasts.

Companies that handle petcoke say it's not hazardous.

But Detroit officials ordered the mountains of petcoke removed after a cloud of it blew across the Detroit River. Chicago officials are debating whether to regulate or ban it.

HuffingtonPost.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
I've just redone all the living areas in my house with LED ceiling cans and LED wall sconces, and I'm very pleased with the results. The latest LED ceiling trims (not the bulb-form replacements) give a nice white light with no outline of the emitters visible through the diffuser. The overall effect makes CFLs seem like a transitional technology.
One factor beside cost is the quality of the light. A good test is if food still looks appetizing under your chosen lighting. Some CFLs have a color temperature very different from incandescent or the better LED sources.
If you are redoing your lighting from scratch, I'd definitely recommend going straight to LED. 

Quoting 458. goosegirl1:


For lighting, we are wavering between CFLs and LEDs. The intial cost for LED is higher, but they last longer. CFL cost less in the short run. I think we will likely end up with LED outside and CFL inside, at least at first, until we see which will work out for us.

Which lighting does everyone here use? I am gathering information to try and justify all LED to the other half of the paying occupants :)

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Warsaw climate change talks end on a blurry note


But many also expressed frustration about a lack of urgency, particularly given scientific reports that paint an increasingly dire picture of a warming planet and extreme weather like the massive typhoon that devastated the Philippines earlier this month. The storm cast a shadow over the talks, with the envoy from the Philippines making an emotional plea for action at the conference.

“It’s quite clear that there’s not yet enough understanding of the real risks of climate change to people around the world. The level of ambition here is not yet adequate,” Morgan said.

Still, activists pointed to one issue in which countries made significant progress: Negotiators agreed to new rules for financing forestry protection. Forest degradation and deforestation are responsible for about 20 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

“Against the backdrop of talks that on so many other areas failed to deliver, I think this was really a bright spot,” said Nat Keohane, vice president for international climate at the Environmental Defense Fund.

As of Sunday afternoon, the White House had stayed largely silent on the talks, and President Barack Obama had not weighed in publicly.


Link

I think the recent cold has put a chill in his speeches.

Record cold air and snow on the way.
Nov 242013


Is -15F and blowing over 100mph wintery enough for you? Well I hope so because it’s cold enough for me. Clearly winter is consuming our mountains with some more snow and additional white stuff arriving this week. It’s definitely time to be prepared for full conditions in the hills and considering avalanche potential. Although we are not in a General Advisory yet I have a feeling we will be soon. Currently model runs for the expected mid-week surge of moisture are running warmer, with the rouge GFS starting to come into alignment with the rest of the pack. This is expected to bring generally mixed precipitation to the region, leaning more heavily to rain than snow. However the mountains could get a considerable shot of accumulation for the Holiday window. We’ll keep an eye on it. Regardless of how this plays out, 11” of snow over the past week is moving into all the nooks and crannies of the early season mountain. The upslope snow anticipated over the next few days will move along the development of our initial bed surfaces. How these bed surfaces progress in size will be the key factor in subsequent avalanche potential.

If you look for instability in a few places will you find it before the first official advisory? Yes. Will it be a widespread problem found across the Ravines? No. Don’t get caught by surprise and keep your eyes open for a pocket or two of instability. The classic early season problems are usually found in Tuckerman’s Left Gully, Chute and numerous shelves and benches in the Center Headwall. In Huntington, common locations have historically been found at the base of popular early season routes like Pinnacle and Odell. Could instability be found in other locations? Of course, but these are where we see the majority of the early season developments



Link





Have a safe travel day on Wed. Map suggests it will be a bit of a challenge.
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Quoting 400. Daisyworld:


There's a difference between civil dialogue, and posting factually inaccurate information while insisting your logic is airtight and that anyone who disagrees is too fanatical to follow along. That latter process is known as confusing the argument in order to deliberately plant disinformation.


Anyone got a Hockey_stick? Please hold the propaganda.
Data can be mismanaged in many ways, NSA, EPA, IRS come to mind among others.

Texas Heat Wave Caused by Global Warming, NASA's Hansen Says
Temperature data shows the Texas heat wave wouldn't have occurred without warming, Hansen claims. Others aren't ready to draw such a definitive conclusion.
By Elizabeth Grossman, InsideClimate News
Jan 31, 2012



Link

Just like the record number of Hurricanes this year?
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Quoting 457. JohnLonergan:


If I had a lot of credit I'd go for a passivhaus.


We are currently building a house, and put some of the features of a "passive house" into the plan. We have 2x6 walls with R21 insulation, a heat pump water heater that will capture heat from an insulated basement, and a 95% efficient propane furnace for the coldest days. For heating and cooling otherwise, we have a 14 SEER heat pump. I wanted an 18 SEER but the furnace to back that up was too expensive to justify the cost. We bought all tier 3 energy star appliances if available, and the highest rating we could find otherwise. I would like to put insulation in the attic, as it has R38 and could use a little bump- maybe next year after we catch up with all the other bills :)

For lighting, we are wavering between CFLs and LEDs. The intial cost for LED is higher, but they last longer. CFL cost less in the short run. I think we will likely end up with LED outside and CFL inside, at least at first, until we see which will work out for us.

Which lighting does everyone here use? I am gathering information to try and justify all LED to the other half of the paying occupants :)
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Quoting 455. goosegirl1:
Good news, if you have lots of credit available: Link


If I had a lot of credit I'd go for a passivhaus.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3165
Victor Venema has announced a series of blogs on climate variability, it sounds worth reading.

Introduction to series on weather variability and extreme events


This is the introduction to a series on changes in the daily weather and extreme weather. The series discusses how much we know about whether and to what extent the climate system experiences changes in the variability of the weather. Variability here denotes the the changes of the shape of probability distribution around the mean. The most basic variable to denote variability would be the variance, but many other measures could be used.

Dimensions of variability
Studying weather variability adds more dimensions to our apprehension of climate change and also complexities. This series is mainly aimed at other scientists, but I hope it will be clear enough for everyone interested. If not, just complain and I will try to explain it better. At least if that is possible, we do not have much solid results on changes in the weather variability yet.

The quantification of weather variability requires the specification of the length of periods and the size of regions considered (extent, the scope or domain of the data). Different from studying averages is that the consideration of variability adds the dimension of the spatial and temporal averaging scale (grain, the minimum spatial resolution of the data); thus variability requires the definition of an upper and lower scale. This is important in climate and weather as specific climatic mechanisms may influence variability at certain scale ranges. For instance, observations suggest that near-surface temperature variability is decreasing in the range between 1 year and decades, while its variability in the range of days to months is likely increasing.

Similar to extremes, which can be studied on a range from moderate (soft) extremes to extreme (hard) extremes, variability can be analysed by measures which range from describing the bulk of the probability distribution to ones that focus more on the tails. Considering the complete probability distribution adds another dimension to anthropogenic climate change. Such a soft measure of variability could be the variance, or the interquartile range. A harder measure of variability could be the kurtosis (4th moment) or the distance between the first and the 99th percentile. A hard variability measure would be the difference between the maximum and minimum 10-year return periods.

Another complexity to the problem is added by the data: climate models and observations typically have very different averaging scales. Thus any comparisons require upscaling (averaging) or downscaling, which in turn needs a thorough understanding of variability at all involved scales.

A final complexity is added by the need to distinguish between the variability of the weather and the variability added due to measurement and modelling uncertainties, sampling and errors. This can even affect trend estimates of the observed weather variability because improvements in climate observations have likely caused apparent, but non-climatic, reductions in the weather variability. As a consequence, data homogenization is central in the analysis of observed changes in weather variability.

More information here >>
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Good news, if you have lots of credit available: Link
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"Record-breaking recovery" ?

or dead-cat bounce?



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Quoting 449. Birthmark:


Weeeelah! Look at that recovery!



Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3165
Quoting 449. Birthmark:
Weeeelah! Look at that recovery!
Speaking of, here are some fun facts:

1) On Nov. 22, 2011, Arctic sea ice area was at 8.906 million km2.

2) On Nov. 22*, 2013, Arctic sea ice area was at 8.771 million km2.

3) That means that there's currently about 135,000 km2 less Arctic sea ice--an area roughly the size of Alabama--than there was on the same date in 2011.

4) 2011, as you know, was followed by 2012, which saw a record low in Arctic sea ice area.

Source

Those four facts alone don't mean much, of course, as Arctic sea ice varies too much in the short term to gather anything meaningful. But it does say a little about the WUWT-alleged and oh-so-very-wished-for denialist "recovery" in north polar ice. That is: it ain't happenin'.

Bonus fact:

-Between October 1st and November 24 of this year, IJIS Arctic sea ice extent grew by 4.723 million km2. Over the same period last year, extent grew by 6.089 million km2, a difference of 1.366 million km2. That's an area larger than Montana, California, and Texas. Combined. (Source)

So, to second Birthmark: Weeeelah! Look at that recovery!

* - I selected this date as it was the most recent one for which area data was available.

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
From The Price of Oil:

Canada’s “Reckless” Expansion of Tar Sands Toxic Lakes

And so yet another UN climate conference has ended, having limped to late-night compromise deal that has been widely condemned by civil society groups as vague and inadequate.

During the conference, Oil Change International launched a new graphic about how much carbon we can safely burn. The neat graphic explains in plain English that “When it comes to climate change and fossil fuels, the world is in a hole, and the first order of business must therefore be to stop digging deeper.”

It adds that “Scientists agree that at least two thirds and possibly more of the world’s current, proven reserves of oil, gas, and coal must not be burned if we are to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.”

The reality is that less than a third of the remaining reserves can be safely burned.

Tell that to the Canadians who are digging one huge hole in Alberta as they exploit the tar sands. In doing so, they are burning carbon like it was going out of fashion.

They are developing the tar sands at an alarming rate: pouring in some C$19 billion investment a year. The tar sands production is expected to surpass 2 million barrels a day this year.

Such is the belligerence of the Canadian oil industry and its political and financial backers, that they are blinkered to the fact that their investment is causing climate chaos. They are blind to the fact that much of the tar sands they are investing in, is unburnable carbon.

Earlier this month, the respected Pembina Institute issued a report on the long-term economic implications of rapid tar sands expansion in a report called Booms, Busts and Bitumen which looked at the economic consequences for the Albertans and Canadians of being so dependent on a resource that many never be able to be burnt.

As David Emerson, chair of the Alberta Premier’s Council for Economic Strategy, has noted, Canada “may have heavy oil to sell, but few or no profitable markets wishing to buy.”

The industry also seems indifferent to the immediate ecological impact. Such is the growth of the tar sands, that the industry is running out of room to store the contaminated water that is a by-product of the process used to turn bitumen into oil.

According to a new analysis by the Pembina Institute by the early 2020’s, one month’s output of wastewater could turn an area the size of New York’s Central Park into a toxic reservoir 11 feet deep.

Now the tar sands industry wants to transform northern Alberta into the largest man-made lake district on Earth. As many as 30 pit-end lakes are being planned. Syncrude has already begun work on the 2,000 acre Base Mine Lake. Other companies are planning on flooding oil mines with toxic tailings and water.

The tailings plans have been described as “reckless” by the Pembina Institute. One scientist, David Schindler, an ecology professor at the University of Alberta, accuses the industry of “playing Russian roulette with a big part of an important ecosystem.”

That is as well as playing Russian roulette with the climate.
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Quoting 448. tramp96:

So you go to where you feel comfortable{a desert} and
stick your head in the sand.



That doesn't sound too bad right now, it's 12 degrees out there...
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Someone has probably posted this before now, but it's the first time I've seen it since it was updated with 2013 data. Thanks to Hot Whopper where I noticed it.



Weeeelah! Look at that recovery!
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 445. goosegirl1:


I can only see what others quote, I stopped listening to him a long time ago.

I've stopped quoting him.

You're welcome. :)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 436. Birthmark:

And that is why he should be banned.

I would hope that all people of good will, who respect reasoned, evidenced-based discussion will minus and "!" on all of yoboi's unsubstantiated and refuted claims. My understanding is we only need ten people to have the substance-free posts removed.


I can only see what others quote, I stopped listening to him a long time ago.
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Quoting 442. tramp96:


Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.