Wobbles in the Barriers: Arctic Oscillation (4)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 4:22 PM GMT on October 14, 2013

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Wobbles in the Barriers: Arctic Oscillation (4)

This is a continuation of my series on the Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation. Links to background material and previous entries are at the end.

In the last entry I suggested that if you were on a bridge overlooking a swiftly flowing creek then you would notice that twigs floating in the water did not move across the current. They are carried downstream along the edge of the current. The purpose of that comparison was to demonstrate how fast-moving, concentrated flows have the effect of isolating one side of the creek from the other. This is true in the creek, and it is also true about jet streams in the atmosphere.

One way to understand the Arctic Oscillation is to think of it as the variation of an atmospheric jet stream. For the Arctic Oscillation the jet stream of interest is the southern edge of vortex of air that circulates around the North Pole (see previous entry). Air inside the vortex often has characteristics different from air outside it. Intuitively for the Arctic, there is colder air on the side toward the pole. If you look at trace gases, like ozone, they are different across the edge of the vortex. The takeaway idea is that the edge of the vortex is a barrier. It’s not a perfect barrier, but the air on one side is largely separated from the air on the other side. In this blog, I describe the difference between a strong and a weak vortex – which is the same as the difference between the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.



Figure 1: This figure is from the point of view of someone looking down from above at the North Pole (NP). Compare this perspective to Figure 1 in previous blog. This represents a strong, circular vortex centered over the pole, which encloses cold air, represented as blue. The line surrounding the cold air is the jet stream or the edge of the vortex.

Figure 1 shows an idealized schematic of the North Pole as viewed from above. This is the strong vortex case, when there is exceptionally low pressure at the pole. Low pressure is associated with counterclockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere. This direction of rotation is called cyclonic. This strong vortex case is the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. During this phase, the vortex aligns strongly with the rotation of the Earth, and there are relatively few wobbles of the edge of the vortex – the jet stream. I drew on the figure two points, X and Y. In this case, the point X is hot and the point Y is cold. It is during this phase when it is relatively warm and moist over, for example, the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Figure 2 compares a strong vortex and a weak vortex. In both cases, the circulation around a central point is counterclockwise or cyclonic. However, in the weak vortex case, the vortex does not align as strongly with the rotation of the Earth and there are places where the edge of vortex extends southwards. The vortex appears displaced from the pole; it is not centered over the pole.



Figure 2: Examples of a strong, circular vortex and a weak, more wavy vortex. See text for a more complete description.

Whether the vortex is stronger or weaker is determined by the atmospheric pressure at the pole. In the winter, an important factor that determines the circulation is the cooling that occurs at polar latitudes during the polar night.

What determines the waviness or wobbles at the edge of this vortex? The structure at the edge of vortex is strongly influenced by several factors. These factors include the structure of the high-pressure centers that are over the oceans and continents to the south of jet stream. One could easily imagine a strong high-pressure center over, for example, Iceland, pushing northward at the edge of the vortex. This might push a lobe of air characteristic of the middle latitude Atlantic Ocean northward. Since the edge of the vortex is something of a barrier, this high-pressure system would distort the edge of the vortex and, perhaps, push the vortex off the pole. This would appear as a displacement of the vortex and its cold air over, for example, Russia. If the high grew and faded, then this would appear as wobbles of the vortex.

Other factors that influence the waviness at the edge of the vortex are the mountain ranges and the thermal contrast between the continents and the oceans. The impact of mountains is easy to understand. Returning to the creek comparison used above, the mountains are like a boulder in the stream. The water bulges around and over the boulder; the air in the atmosphere bulges around and over the mountain ranges. The Rocky Mountains in the western half of North America are perfect examples of where there are often wobbles in the atmospheric jet stream.



Figure 3: This figure is from the point of view of someone looking down from above at the North Pole (NP). This represents a weak, wavy, wobbly vortex displaced from the pole. The vortex encloses cold air, represented as blue. The line surrounding the cold air is the jet stream or the edge of the vortex. (definition of vortex)

Figure 3 shows an idealized schematic of the North Pole as viewed from above. This is the weak vortex case, when the low pressure at the pole is not as low as average and the pressure is much higher than the strong vortex case of Figure 1. This weak vortex case is the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. During this phase, the alignment of the vortex with the rotation of the Earth is less prominent, and there are wobbles of the edge of the vortex – the jet stream. In this case, the point X is cold and the point Y is hot. It is during this phase where it is relatively cool and dry (but potentially snowy) over, for example, the eastern part of the United States.

These figures help to explain the prominent signal of the Arctic Oscillation discussed in the earlier entries (specifically, this blog). That is, when the vortex is weak and wobbly, then there are excursions of colder air to the south and warmer air to the north. This appears as waviness and is an important pattern of variability - warm, cold, warm, cold.

The impact of the changes in the structure of edge of the vortex does not end with these persistent periods of regional warm and cold spells. The edge of the vortex or the jet stream is also important for steering storms. Minimally, therefore, these changes in the edge of the vortex are expected to change the characteristics of how storms move. Simply, if the edge of the vortex has large northward and southward extensions, then storms take a longer time to move, for example, across the United States from the Pacific to the Atlantic Oceans. In the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation they just whip across. In the negative phase, the storms wander around a bit. A more complete discussion of this aspect of the role of the Arctic Oscillation will be in the next entry. (Note use of dramatic tension and the cliffhanger strategy of the serial.)

r

Previous entries:

Barriers in the Atmosphere
Behavior
Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”

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Quoting 106. Cochise111:


I hate to tell you this, but you're wasting your energy attempting to convey logic. These people are part of the liberal order, which, in my humble opinion, and that of learned psychiatrists, is a mental disorder. No matter how much evidence is presented, they continue to ignore it and follow their new religion. They won't even admit that global temperatures have not changed in over fifteen years. I don't believe that the average global temperature is calculable, but even with their biased, adjusted, corrupted, tweaked, and otherwise-false global temperatures, they still can't show global warming. The almost 100 models they use can't forecast past much less future temperatures, yet they want the world to believe they can predict climate differences decades into the future. It would be laughable if it weren't so depressing to the world economies.


Like MrPerfect, you post lots of lies, but offer no actual scientific data to support your position. Why should anyone listen to you?
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 855
Quoting 104. MisterPerfect:
My Turn: Hockey stick comparison – Al Gore vs. Ben Bernanke
By Jeff Ridgel, Tahoe Daily Tribune - October 15, 2013

Al Gore made himself a political name, and a personal fortune, by widely disseminating hyperbole on manmade global warming. His famous hockey stick chart depicting exponential growth of global temperatures, directly related to emissions of man-generated gases, has had major political and economic repercussions.



As a firm believer in the scientific method, a former instructor of statistics, and one that has used statistical modeling extensively for military applications in radar design, I approached this topic with healthy skepticism. I went back to the original data samples and evaluated the original mathematical modeling.

Unfortunately, different than the conclusions reached by the International Commission on Climate Change, and in alarming disagreement with the economic impact resulting from the political fallout from this statistical modeling, I believe that politics and money drove desired conclusions not founded in the data.

Given the amount of public opinion that has been persuaded along the lines of global warming created by man’s actions, stating a contrary opinion is not done lightly.

However, fundamental flaws in the research, such as establishing a deterministic causal relationship indicating high carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere indeed led to higher global temperatures, and not the other way around, was not done. And whereas one would not doubt the irrefutable evidence that global warming is indeed occurring with Arctic ice melt at record highs, determining a causal relationship by man-made evidence being more than a trivial factor has not been established.

Other factors, for example, well known periodic sun activity, appear to be much more significant contributors and well documented in core sample data. And although I am a conservationist, and believe firmly in pursuing clean air and water for our environment and health, the economic impact brought on by EPA and State mandates are direct contributors to our debt issues today. Which brings up our second hockey stick, Ben Bernanke’s. As opposed to global warming, the national debt is not based on a politicized statistical model. It is real and increasing exponentially.



The national debt slowly increased up through 2005. Starting in 2006, under Bernanke’s lead as Fed Chairman fulfilling the progressive spending surge of Barack Obama and creative “Quantitative Easing” stimulus plan, the national debt has indeed taken on the look of Al Gore’s hockey stick.

As indicated above, there is a direct relationship between Al Gore’s hockey stick and Ben Bernanke’s hockey stick. I finally got what all the hoopla is about. Thanks Al.

http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/northshore/85224 04-113/hockey-stick-global-bernanke


I hate to tell you this, but you're wasting your energy attempting to convey logic. These people are part of the liberal order, which, in my humble opinion, and that of learned psychiatrists, is a mental disorder. No matter how much evidence is presented, they continue to ignore it and follow their new religion. They won't even admit that global temperatures have not changed in over fifteen years. I don't believe that the average global temperature is calculable, but even with their biased, adjusted, corrupted, tweaked, and otherwise-false global temperatures, they still can't show global warming. The almost 100 models they use can't forecast past much less future temperatures, yet they want the world to believe they can predict climate differences decades into the future. It would be laughable if it weren't so depressing to the world economies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 104. MisterPerfect:


[...] However, fundamental flaws in the research, such as establishing a deterministic causal relationship indicating high carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere indeed led to higher global temperatures, and not the other way around, was not done. And whereas one would not doubt the irrefutable evidence that global warming is indeed occurring with Arctic ice melt at record highs, determining a causal relationship by man-made evidence being more than a trivial factor has not been established.

Other factors, for example, well known periodic sun activity, appear to be much more significant contributors and well documented in core sample data...


Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 855
My Turn: Hockey stick comparison – Al Gore vs. Ben Bernanke
By Jeff Ridgel, Tahoe Daily Tribune - October 15, 2013

Al Gore made himself a political name, and a personal fortune, by widely disseminating hyperbole on manmade global warming. His famous hockey stick chart depicting exponential growth of global temperatures, directly related to emissions of man-generated gases, has had major political and economic repercussions.



As a firm believer in the scientific method, a former instructor of statistics, and one that has used statistical modeling extensively for military applications in radar design, I approached this topic with healthy skepticism. I went back to the original data samples and evaluated the original mathematical modeling.

Unfortunately, different than the conclusions reached by the International Commission on Climate Change, and in alarming disagreement with the economic impact resulting from the political fallout from this statistical modeling, I believe that politics and money drove desired conclusions not founded in the data.

Given the amount of public opinion that has been persuaded along the lines of global warming created by man’s actions, stating a contrary opinion is not done lightly.

However, fundamental flaws in the research, such as establishing a deterministic causal relationship indicating high carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere indeed led to higher global temperatures, and not the other way around, was not done. And whereas one would not doubt the irrefutable evidence that global warming is indeed occurring with Arctic ice melt at record highs, determining a causal relationship by man-made evidence being more than a trivial factor has not been established.

Other factors, for example, well known periodic sun activity, appear to be much more significant contributors and well documented in core sample data. And although I am a conservationist, and believe firmly in pursuing clean air and water for our environment and health, the economic impact brought on by EPA and State mandates are direct contributors to our debt issues today. Which brings up our second hockey stick, Ben Bernanke’s. As opposed to global warming, the national debt is not based on a politicized statistical model. It is real and increasing exponentially.



The national debt slowly increased up through 2005. Starting in 2006, under Bernanke’s lead as Fed Chairman fulfilling the progressive spending surge of Barack Obama and creative “Quantitative Easing” stimulus plan, the national debt has indeed taken on the look of Al Gore’s hockey stick.

As indicated above, there is a direct relationship between Al Gore’s hockey stick and Ben Bernanke’s hockey stick. I finally got what all the hoopla is about. Thanks Al.

http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/northshore/85224 04-113/hockey-stick-global-bernanke
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
From RTCC:

Lloyd’s insurers mock climate sceptics over ‘global cooling’

Head of exposure at Lloyd’s says ignoring IPCC report is not an option, calling on all regions to think about developing resilience

The head of exposure management at leading insurer Lloyd’s has slammed attempts to dismiss the latest UN climate science report, and says he’s unconvinced by claims the world is cooling.

“The sceptics are just trying to push the debate and they start at 1998, which was one of the hottest years on record,” says Trevor Maynard in a blog titled ‘Silencing the Sceptics‘.

“It’s a bit like someone breaks the world record for running 100 metres and then in the next ten races people say, ‘Runners are getting slower’.”

He added: “In some parts of the world we expect there will be more flooding and drought and food shortages, we just don’t know where exactly. It means all regions need to think about becoming more resilient.”

[...]

“Climate change acts as a ‘threat multiplier’,” said Maynard. “It doesn’t necessarily cause events to happen, but it does make them worse.”

Business concern

The insurance industry has long warned of the potential impacts of climate change and related extreme weather events.

Estimates of the repair bill left by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 range between $50-100 billion, and prompted insurance payouts of $25 billion.

Insurance company Munich Re AG say natural disasters cost insurers $65 billion in 2012. A spokesman told RTCC the company was investing heavily in efforts to develop a better understanding of global risks.

“We adopt a multidisciplinary approach, using and combining the pertinent experience and expertise of our scientists, specialist underwriters, lawyers, economists, sociologists and actuaries as appropriate for the risk situation,” he said.

This warning from Lloyd’s is the latest in the series of comments from business leaders over the impacts warming could have on industry and global supply chains.

On Monday Virgin chief Richard Branson called for “climate deniers to be called out”, calling for greater focus on the development of clean fuels.

Yesterday, Emma Cox from consultancy PwC said the financial industry needs to realise that climate change “is not just an environmental issue.”

“This is no longer just a debate about climate change. It’s one of securing recovery and sustaining growth for UK plc,” she said.

And last week the heads of the World Bank, IMF and OCED all called for governments to develop more effective low carbon pathways.

“There is only one way forward: governments need to put together the optimal policy mix to eliminate emissions from fossil fuels in the second half of the century,” said the OECD’s Angel Gurria. “Cherry-picking a few easy measures will not do the trick.”
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting 101. indianrivguy:


Clean Coal is a Dirty Lie.. this "petcoke"is REALLY dirty.. when they put scrubbers on their smokestacks, they dump the poison the remove right into the petcoke piles where they bleed and leak into our waterways. Then it is sold "somewhere else" [out of sight out of mind] where they burn it putting all the poison into the air "somewhere" else where they have done a better job of buying elected official and custom "exceptions and protections" than they get here.. and WE are bad.. thank Cheney and the Halliburton laws. A never ending assault on our air, water, and ecosystems ALL in the name of "profit"


Yes look how clean it is...

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 98. RevElvis:
‘PetKoch’ piling up in Chicago



One of the piles along the river is nearly five stories high. (Photo by Kari Lydersen / Midwest Energy News)



Clean Coal is a Dirty Lie.. this "petcoke"is REALLY dirty.. when they put scrubbers on their smokestacks, they dump the poison the remove right into the petcoke piles where they bleed and leak into our waterways. Then it is sold "somewhere else" [out of sight out of mind] where they burn it putting all the poison into the air "somewhere" else where they have done a better job of buying elected official and custom "exceptions and protections" than they get here.. and WE are bad.. thank Cheney and the Halliburton laws. A never ending assault on our air, water, and ecosystems ALL in the name of "profit"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Physics Today:

The Arctic shifts to a new normal

On 5 September 1980, when the Arctic sea-ice cover reached its minimum extent for the year, it blanketed much of the Arctic Ocean and choked the inter-island channels of Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. Not only did ice extend over 7.5 million square kilometers, almost equal in area to the contiguous 48 US states, but it was an old, and thus thick, ice cover: 62% was multiyear sea ice—that which survives one or more summer melt seasons—and 38% was first-year sea ice. The age and thickness of the ice made it resilient to atmospheric and oceanic forcing, such as solar radiation, storms, and air and water temperatures. Consequently, the seasonal cycle of winter advance and summer retreat was thought to be in a near steady state.
The extensive, thick ice cover that persisted through the end of the summer was considered normal at the time and for many years afterwards. It was expected of a region generally perceived to be cold, hostile, and isolated from the rest of the world, a zone of Cold War confrontation yet of little immediate consequence to most people. Northern residents would rightly have disagreed with that characterization, and multinational corporations were finding and profitably exploiting large energy and mineral reserves. The Prudhoe Bay oil field in northernmost Alaska had been producing for three years—and continues to do so—and the Polaris mine on Little Cornwallis Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago was to begin 22 years of lead and zinc production in 1981. And scientists continued to visit, almost exclusively in the summer—rather like migratory birds—to conduct fieldwork. (See figure 1 for a map of the region.)

In October 1980 Syukuro Manabe and Ronald Stouffer (both then working at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) reported the results of a numerical experiment on the sensitivity of global climate to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.1 The consequences for the Arctic were profound. Their model projected an asymmetric seasonal surface air-temperature response—greater winter warming than summer warming in the Arctic itself, and greater winter and annual warming in the Arctic than at lower latitudes. It also projected a large decline in sea-ice extent and thickness.
Whereas Manabe and Stouffer’s simulation quadrupled the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in its artificial world, the actual increase to date has been much lower. At Barrow in northernmost Alaska, for example, the mean CO2 concentration of 385 ppm in September 2012 was only 15% higher than the 331 ppm of September 1980. And yet profound changes in surface air temperature, sea ice, and numerous other environmental conditions have occurred in the Arctic.

Read on...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
US Court: Transcanada's Keystone XL Profits More Important than Environment

In a major ruling that's flown under the radar, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit - based in Denver, Colorado - decided not to grant the Sierra Club and Clean Energy Future Oklahoma a temporary injunction on the construction of the southern half of Transcanada's Keystone XL tar sands export pipeline.

The Court's decision hinged on an "injury" balancing test: Would Transcanada be hurt more financially from receiving an injunction? Had it lost, it would be stuck with one until Sierra Club, et al receive a U.S. District Court decision on the legality of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' decision to grant Transcanada a Nationwide Permit 12 (NWP 12) for construction of what's now called the Gulf Coast Pipeline in February 2012.

Or would ecosystems suffer even greater and potentially incalculable damage from the 485-mile, 700,000 barrels per day pipeline crossing 2,227 streams?

In a 2-1 decision, the Court sided with Transcanada, and by extension, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The Court ruled, "the threatened environmental injuries were outweighed by the financial harm that the injunction would cause Transcanada."

desmogblog.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
‘PetKoch’ piling up in Chicago



One of the piles along the river is nearly five stories high. (Photo by Kari Lydersen / Midwest Energy News)

Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
Quoting 90. yoboi:






Global warming as it relates to wildland fire budgeting is real. In a previous post I noted how scientists are trying to link future forest fire activity to the effects of “man caused atmospheric changes“.

As long as the government’s EPA and appointed meteorologists keep pushing this folly the Forest Service and other government entities with wildland firefighting forces like the Park Service, BIA and Indian Affairs will receive more funding.


Link

Know how I can tell you didn't read the link I provided? LOL

If you put the effort into learning that you waste on pointless denial you'd be a lot better off.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Chipmunk's Plan For Future Better Crafted Than That Of 8 Out Of 10 Americans

"During our 15 months of observation, we found that this chipmunk was better able to formulate plans, execute them, and ultimately enjoy a more balanced and stable life than a full four-fifths of the U.S. population," said lead researcher Caroline Meehan, noting that the 3-ounce creature possessed sounder judgment and greater self-control than an estimated 250 million Americans.

"Indeed, this chipmunk was able to accurately anticipate its wants and needs as far as weeks, months, or even a year ahead of time, whereas 80 percent of our human subjects were entirely incapable of looking beyond their next meal or that night's television programming."


TheOnion.com
(Satire)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Just one in five children are 'connected to nature' says study (for UK)

Amaze project aims to take 3D printing 'into metal age'


Air pollution 'still harming Europeans' health'

CO2 is vital asset for planet's future

* World Ocean Systems Undermined by Climate Change by 2100

!!! Method of Recording Brain Activity Could Lead to Mind-Reading Devices, Stanford Scientists Say

How Tiny Organisms Make a Big Impact On Clean Water

Climate Change Creates Complicated Consequences for North America's Forests

Microbiome Meets Big Social Science: What's the Potential?

Renewable Fuel Standard Needs to Be Modified, Not Repealed, Experts Say

Illinois River Otters Exposed to Chemicals Banned Decades Ago

New Micro Water Sensor Can Aid Growers

!!! New Evidence On Lightning Strikes: Mountains a Lot Less Stable Than We Think

Evidence of Unsustainable Fishing in the Great Barrier Reef

*** How Earth's Rotation Affects Vortices in Nature, Such as Hurricanes and Ocean Currents

First Evidence That Dust and Sand Deposits in China Are Controlled by Rivers

*** Zimbabwe elephant poisoning toll reaches 100
:(

*** Landmark case? Supreme Court to review EPA regulation of greenhouse gases

One red cent: Curiosity snaps high-res pictures of penny payload on Mars

Cause of deadly Philippines quake likely the East Bohol Fault

'Dante's Peak,' for real: Volcanic eruption creates deadly acid lake

Scientists say Otzi the Iceman has living relatives, 5,300 years later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


By Clay Bennett
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Quoting 90. yoboi:






Global warming as it relates to wildland fire budgeting is real. In a previous post I noted how scientists are trying to link future forest fire activity to the effects of “man caused atmospheric changes“.

As long as the government’s EPA and appointed meteorologists keep pushing this folly the Forest Service and other government entities with wildland firefighting forces like the Park Service, BIA and Indian Affairs will receive more funding.


Link
You really had to look and for that one, didn't you? A former firefighter who blogs about fires has one post saying AGW is a hoax (without even a link to one of your usual sources) and you cite his opinion as proving .... what? That there's someone out there who agrees with you? Your time would be better used studying the science.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Climate Change Will Not Spare an Inch of Global Ocean, Study Finds

Changes in marine temperature, acidity, dissolved oxygen, and productivity will affect ecosystems across the entire expanse of the world's oceans.

Every corner of the world's oceans — from pole to pole and sea surface to seafloor — will undergo chemical changes associated with global climate change by 2100, jeopardizing the livelihoods of billions of people who subsist on marine ecosystems, according to a new study.

Previous studies addressing the effects of climate change on future ocean health have tended to focus on the effects of increased temperature and acidity on marine ecosystems. However, other oceanic conditions — including dissolved oxygen and productivity, or the abundance of tiny plant-like organisms that form the base of the marine food web — also play an important role in overall ocean health. As is the case on land, marine animals need oxygen and plant-life to survive. [Video: Humans Hit the Oceans Hard]

A team of 29 international scientists based at the University of Hawaii, Honolulu, have now developed more comprehensive projections of future ocean health, which take into account temperature, acidity, dissolved oxygen and productivity. To develop these projections, the researchers compiled more than 80,000 existing modeled maps of oceanic change, many of which informed the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

The team found that mangrove and coral reef ecosystems near the tropics will likely experience the smallest cumulative change by 2100, whereas cetaceans (the group of mammals that includes whales, dolphins and porpoises), as well as pinnipeds (such as seals and walruses) will face the largest amount of change.

"We already knew that coral reefs are very susceptible to temperature change, and our models show that they are going to be impacted the least," study co-author Camilo Mora, a researcher at the University of Hawaii, Honolulu, told LiveScience. "So you can imagine what it's going to be like for other ecosystems."


LiveScience.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Quoting 73. Birthmark:

Yes, because AGW predicted that every year would have more forest fires in the US...not.

Seriously, logic is your friend.

But while we're talking about forest fires, how about we inject some *real, relevant* data? Ready?

Here we go:

Source:http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/01/30/spreading- like-wildfire/

Of course, that's only for the US. You're probably unaware of what happened in Siberia this past summer. You should look it up. You won't, but you should.

"Triple Point" Goddard, the unknown blogger, has led you astray again.






Global warming as it relates to wildland fire budgeting is real. In a previous post I noted how scientists are trying to link future forest fire activity to the effects of “man caused atmospheric changes“.

As long as the government’s EPA and appointed meteorologists keep pushing this folly the Forest Service and other government entities with wildland firefighting forces like the Park Service, BIA and Indian Affairs will receive more funding.


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Antarctic Researchers To Congress: Don't Stop The Science!
Posted: 10/15/2013 6:57 pm EDT | Updated: 10/15/2013 7:13 pm EDT


WASHINGTON -- A contractor working at the United States Antarctic Program has started an online petition asking Congress to shield the program's McMurdo Station from the effects of the government shutdown.

Richard Jeong, a senior systems administrator at United States Antarctic Program, started the Change.org petition last week, and more than 3,000 people—including a number of scientists -- have since signed it.

Jeong wants the government to continue funding the station's work, which is part of a National Science Foundation program. The shutdown came just as scientists there were preparing for the summer research season, and the closure has forced the station to go into a holding pattern while it awaits a new appropriation.

"Unlike shutting down a court or a government office in a city, removing Antarctic participants from the ice means losing a long-term investment in infrastructure and a higher cost to re-start the projects," wrote Jeong. "I’m seeing the devastating consequences of this decision firsthand as I’ve been working as a contractor at McMurdo Station in Antarctica all winter. Congress must pass a shutdown exemption, similar to US Military Pay and US Defense Contractors, for the USAP program or end the shutdown."

..more
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting 75. RevElvis:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: SANTA CLAUS ENDS "COAL IN STOCKING" TRADITION

NORTH POLE - Kris Kringle announced today that he has dropped the centuries-old tradition of stuffing coal into the stockings of naughty boys and girls. The decision comes at a time when record warm temperatures and thinning sea ice are threatening the very existence of Kringle's North Pole toy-making and distribution center.

"In light of the prominent role of coal burning in global warming, Santa has decided that he can no longer in any way endorse the extraction of coal," explained Ilbereth, Kringle's spokes-elf. Poor behavior will not go unpunished, however. "Silicate rocks and organic mulch will be replacing coal in stockings, with the occasional mercury-free rotting sardine and DVD of An Inconvenient Truth for those extraordinarily naughty individuals."

The final straw which impelled Santa to change the coal tradition this year, in particular, was the receipt by Kringle of several letters from prominent coal and energy lobbyists and top-ranking U.S. government officials. The letters were thanking Santa for depositing coal in their stockings last Christmas.

LINK



And meanwhile I'd like to start the "swimming Santa" pool where the first day that the entire circle north of 89N is clear of ice, is specified. I suspect it will be within 20 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 77. Cochise111:
Fewest tornadoes on record.

Guess the wild fire claim didn't work out for you, eh? Thought you'd try this one now? lol

Your new claim suffers from the same logical defect as that of your previous claim. That is, the US is NOT the globe.

It also suffers from the same factual defect. AGW doesn't predict US tornadoes.

Really, logic is your friend.

Facts, too...when in context.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 76. Xandra:
How Roy Spencer and John Christy trick Anthony Watts and his deniers once again




I saw Hotwhopper, too, I liked this comment where cRR Kampen invokes the converse of Hanlon's razor:

cRR KampenOctober 16, 2013 at 1:33 AM
Don't attribute to stupidity what you can attribute to malice.
" Ph.D. Atmospheric Science, University of Illinois (1987).
M.S., Atmospheric Science, University of Illinois, (1984)."
According to http://www.desmogblog.com/john-christy .

You may safely assume the guy knows better and is a paid merchant of ignorance. Not steering clear of Heartland clinches the verdict.




Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Fossil Fuel Euphoria: Hallelujah, Oil and Gas Forever!

For years, energy analysts had been anticipating an imminent decline in global oil supplies. Suddenly, they’re singing a new song: Fossil fuels growing scarce? Don’t even think about it! The news couldn’t be better: fossil fuels will become ever more abundant. And all that talk about climate change? Don’t worry about it, they chant. Go out and enjoy the benefits of cheap and plentiful energy forever.

This movement from gloom about our energy future to what can only be called fossil-fuel euphoria may prove to be the hallmark of our peculiar moment. In a speech this September, for instance, Barry Smitherman, chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission (that state’s energy regulatory agency), claimed that the Earth possesses a “relatively boundless supply” of oil and natural gas. Not only that -- and you can practically hear the chorus of cheering in Houston and other oil centers -- but many of the most exploitable new deposits are located in the U.S. and Canada. As a result -- add a roll of drums and a blaring of trumpets -- the expected boost in energy is predicted to provide the United States with a cornucopia of economic and political rewards, including industrial expansion at home and enhanced geopolitical clout abroad. The country, exulted Karen Moreau of the New York State Petroleum Council, another industry cheerleader, is now in a position “to become a global superpower on energy.”

Today, peak oil seems a distant will-o’-the-wisp. Experts at the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) confidently project that global oil output will reach 115 million barrels per day by 2040 -- a stunning 34% increase above the current level of 86 million barrels. Natural gas production is expected to soar as well, leaping from 113 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to a projected 185 trillion in 2040.

These rosy assessments rest to a surprising extent on a single key assumption: that the United States, until recently a declining energy producer, will experience a sharp increase in output through the exploitation of shale oil and natural gas reserves through hydro-fracking and other technological innovations. “In a matter of a few years, the trends have reversed,” Moreau declared last February. “There is a new energy reality of vast domestic resources of oil and natural gas brought about by advancing technology... For the first time in generations, we are able to see that our energy supply is no longer limited, foreign, and finite; it is American and abundant.”

TomDispatch.com

Truth-Out.org
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Post #74 Patrap; Meanwhile, the Canadian government has joined in a global commitment to hold concentrations of greenhouse gases to levels that would avoid allowing global average temperatures to rise by 2 C.

from the folks that bring you Athabasca and the Keystone Pipeline... who is spending millions to convince America to allow a pipeline they don't want.
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Steve Goddard ?


Mystery Man of the Web.

Da,da, da dahhhhhhh'

He was not, and a I repeat, not a Mercury 7 Astronaut.

Next please?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting 76. Xandra:
How Roy Spencer and John Christy trick Anthony Watts and his deniers once again


I figured that there were some issues with that chart, considering (again) how much it different from those produced elsewhere. I just didn't have the time to look into it. I looked at the models used in the AR4 and computed pentadal averages. My rough work suggested that there may have been a divergence from the model mean in the last 5 years or so. Not sure why, but there are numerous possible reasons. And that wasnt the current set of model results.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
77 - Here's your "Lightening Round"

Thunderstorms = Tornadoes
Drought = fewer Thunderstorms & Fewer T__n_d__s

Fill in the Blanks

You can do it!

no lifelines & no help from the audience!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Fewest tornadoes on record.

Link

Quoting 76. Xandra:
How Roy Spencer and John Christy trick Anthony Watts and his deniers once again



Similar to the IPCC AR5 charts?
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How Roy Spencer and John Christy trick Anthony Watts and his deniers once again

Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: SANTA CLAUS ENDS "COAL IN STOCKING" TRADITION

NORTH POLE - Kris Kringle announced today that he has dropped the centuries-old tradition of stuffing coal into the stockings of naughty boys and girls. The decision comes at a time when record warm temperatures and thinning sea ice are threatening the very existence of Kringle's North Pole toy-making and distribution center.

"In light of the prominent role of coal burning in global warming, Santa has decided that he can no longer in any way endorse the extraction of coal," explained Ilbereth, Kringle's spokes-elf. Poor behavior will not go unpunished, however. "Silicate rocks and organic mulch will be replacing coal in stockings, with the occasional mercury-free rotting sardine and DVD of An Inconvenient Truth for those extraordinarily naughty individuals."

The final straw which impelled Santa to change the coal tradition this year, in particular, was the receipt by Kringle of several letters from prominent coal and energy lobbyists and top-ranking U.S. government officials. The letters were thanking Santa for depositing coal in their stockings last Christmas.

LINK
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
..from # 72

CO2 levels are monitored daily at Mauna Loa Observatory on the island of Hawaii. When the monitoring station was set up in 1958, CO2 levels were at 317ppm. The rise to 400 ppm was not expected so soon. Meanwhile, the Canadian government has joined in a global commitment to hold concentrations of greenhouse gases to levels that would avoid allowing global average temperatures to rise by 2 C. Scientists have marked that wide red hazard line in a band between 425-450 ppm.

Avoiding 2 C is critical because it represents a danger zone. Some refer to it as a point of no return -- or a "tipping point" to self-accelerating global warming, the so-called "runaway greenhouse effect." The actual tipping point might be 2.5 C, or it could be 1.5 C. Two degrees represents a consensus of scientists, but no scientist I know is sanguine about two degrees. It is certainly not a safe zone.

The most recent International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook includes some number crunching. If all the world's known reserves of fossil fuels were to be used, the climate would move the world to a non-habitable state.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting 71. Cochise111:
The US had the fewest forest fires in almost three decades. Even with all of the hype (propagated on this website among others), another dire prediction gone the way of AGW.

Link

Yes, because AGW predicted that every year would have more forest fires in the US...not.

Seriously, logic is your friend.

But while we're talking about forest fires, how about we inject some *real, relevant* data? Ready?

Here we go:

Source:http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/01/30/spreading- like-wildfire/

Of course, that's only for the US. You're probably unaware of what happened in Siberia this past summer. You should look it up. You won't, but you should.

"Triple Point" Goddard, the unknown blogger, has led you astray again.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
There is a tipping point to a runaway effect in the long run if we continue down the path were on.

Crossing the 400 ppm line: Concentration of carbon dioxide reaches tipping point
BY ELIZABETH MAY | MAY 28, 2013


We have now crossed a dangerous line in the global build up of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas concentrations have moved from the pre-Industrial Revolution level that never exceeded 280 parts per million (ppm) to a new daily average of 400 ppm, reached last week.

Over a period of the last million years, CO2 never exceeded 280 ppm (based on actual readings of atmospheric chemistry from Antarctic ice-core data). The last time greenhouse gases reached 400 ppm was three million years ago. Put simply, humanity has now changed the chemistry of our atmosphere to replicate pre-historic levels -- a time when no humans existed.


One can write any personal entry on whatever here at wundrground.com, as it's a good thing to have, the freedom to write ones own opines and thoughts for the archive as well.

I encourage all bloggers to use that right for free here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
The US had the fewest forest fires in almost three decades. Even with all of the hype (propagated on this website among others), another dire prediction gone the way of AGW.

Link
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Quoting 64. Neapolitan:

Companies like to put on the "smlley face" to protect their public image. That's nice and business as usual. The funding that goes to organizations engaged in a large scale, long term disinformation campaign is unusual--unless you look at it in context as Naomi Oreskes does in Merchants of Doubt.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
NASA fuel cell tech will power Al Gore’s London headquarters

Fuel cell technology used to power Nasa’s space shuttle will provide light and heat for Al Gore’s new London headquarters. The fuel cell, which converts gas into heat and electricity without producing carbon emissions, has been installed in a major crown estate development in Regent Street in the capital.

The cell was developed by U.S. company FuelCell Energy. It will emit 38% less carbon dioxide than using electricity from the grid and heat from gas-fired boilers, according to the crown estate, which says 350 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions will be saved per year. Unlike fossil-fuel-burning power plants, the fuel cell produces power with virtually no nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SOx) or particulate matter (PM) pollution.

RawStory.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
38 - Brian - apologies - hit the - & ! (both mistakes) - must be time for that eye exam !
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Supreme Court To Review Greenhouse Gases Case

WASHINGTON (AP) %u2014 The Supreme Court has agreed to consider whether the Environmental Protection Agency overstepped its authority in developing rules aimed at cutting emissions of six heat-trapping gases from factories and power plants.

The justices said Tuesday they will review a unanimous federal appeals court ruling that upheld the government's unprecedented regulations aimed at reducing the gases blamed for global warming.

The question in the case is whether the EPA's authority to regulate automobile emissions of greenhouses gases as air pollutants, which stemmed from a 2007 Supreme Court ruling, also applies to power plants and factories.

The case will be argued in early 2014.

HuffingtonPost.com

* added

Why The Supreme Court Taking On Greenhouse Gases Isn't As Bad As It Looks (Op-Ed)
TalkingPointsMemo.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:
So if Hockey Shtick and Goddard's site and Watts' sites went down permanently, you'd have absolutely nothing to do, would you?

Anyway:

--The MWP wasn't global.

--A "paper" from the fossil fuel-funded SPPI and CO2 Science isn't a paper as in "peer-reviewed" or "refereed" or "credible"; it's a one-sided opinion piece. And putting one's faith into anything that "paper" has to say is akin to reading a "paper" from the local biker gang that details how healthy smoking crystal meth is, then picking up the pipe...

Sorry, Koch-ise; you've been fooled yet again. Doesn't that ever get old?

And even if it were global, it wouldn't necessarily mean anything (Edit: except for implications for the climate sensitivity, as mentioned).

Climate changes when the energy balance of the planet changes. The increase in forcing during the MWP could have been from non-GHG sources. Of course, that's all under the assumption that the MWP was simultaneously global, which research suggests isn't likely.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
Quoting 58. Cochise111:


"Big Oil" funds most of the environmental groups in existence. But wait, you can't address that. It would destroy your entire fantasy. Environmental groups get billions more funding than any real science group, but even with that funding, they can't fool the public.
Sure, I'll address it: so what? No one here repeatedly links to "papers" put out by those organizations; no one here endless cites those organizations as authorities and experts.

See the difference?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13530
Quoting 62. Birthmark:

There's nothing to explain. As usual, your "inconvenient fact" isn't a fact of any sort.

That sounds inconvenient for you. lol



Inconvenient fact for The Denialati Ignoranti, if they're correct and the MWP was much warmer than today, climate sensitivity would be about 4-6 degrees/doubling.

Of course the Denialati are nothing if not logically inconsistent.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Quoting 53. Cochise111:
So, if the MWP was much warmer than today's climate, and it was a world-wide event, just how can CO2 be responsible for warmth when CO2 levels were over 100 ppm lower in the MWP? Another inconvenient fact for the warmists to explain.

There's nothing to explain. As usual, your "inconvenient fact" isn't a fact of any sort.

That sounds inconvenient for you. lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 44. pcola57:


Morning greentortuloni.. :)
My personal opinion is until we go "full on" with efforts akin to WWII concerning planet responsibility and using all available Green technology "NOW",as in right now,, we shall have enjoyed the best mankind has to offer and will now experience our decline into to relative obscurity in the blip of time in which we occupy..

Edit: I do have a basic internal belief that we will snap out of this "throw away the world" mentality..

My internal belief is precisely the opposite.

I'm pulling hard for yours to be right, though.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469


Look, if ya gonna use the "Schtick" after Hockey,..here,

I'm expecting Royalties quarterly..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
One of the most controversial issues emerging from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is the failure of global climate models to predict a hiatus in warming of global surface temperatures since 1998. Several ideas have been put forward to explain this hiatus, including what the IPCC refers to as ‘unpredictable climate variability’ that is associated with large-scale circulation regimes in the atmosphere and ocean. The most familiar of these regimes is El Niño/La Niña, which are parts of an oscillation in the ocean-atmosphere system. On longer multi-decadal time scales, there is a network of atmospheric and oceanic circulation regimes, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:
So if Hockey Shtick and Goddard's site and Watts' sites went down permanently, you'd have absolutely nothing to do, would you?

Anyway:

--The MWP wasn't global.

--A "paper" from the fossil fuel-funded SPPI and CO2 Science isn't a paper as in "peer-reviewed" or "refereed" or "credible"; it's a one-sided opinion piece. And putting one's faith into anything that "paper" has to say is akin to reading a "paper" from the local biker gang that details how healthy smoking crystal meth is, then picking up the pipe...

Sorry, Koch-ise; you've been fooled yet again. Doesn't that ever get old?


"Big Oil" funds most of the environmental groups in existence. But wait, you can't address that. It would destroy your entire fantasy. Environmental groups get billions more funding than any real science group, but even with that funding, they can't fool the public.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just chatting with a fellow gardener who hailed from Western Montana. He asserts things have changed significantly for the warmer in the past ten years and whereas before no one grew vine ripened tomatoes in his region, in the past ten years it has become possible. Just one datapoint.

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.