Barriers in the Atmosphere: Arctic Oscillation (3)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 12:50 AM GMT on October 03, 2013

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Barriers in the Atmosphere: Arctic Oscillation (3)

I want to continue with the Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation. First, however, here is the link to my August presentation. Also here is a link to the GLISAclimate.org project workspace where I collected together the materials I used in the presentation - Arctic Oscillation: Climate variability in the Great Lakes.

Here are the previous entries in the series:
Behavior
Definitions and Some Background

This blog is mostly a setup for the next one. (And yes I did notice that the IPCC AR-5 report was released, but I don’t have anything different to say about it than many of my more able colleagues. I’ll get to it.)


In the talk that I linked to above, I used a couple of diagrams that the audience told me worked very well. I am going to try them out in this blog. In the previous blogs I used the CPC Climate Glossary to give the definition of the Arctic Oscillation. “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.” This definition does not really do much for me. It’s one of those definitions that I imagine if I ask 10 atmospheric scientists to tell me what it means, I will get 12 answers. Therefore, I will draw a picture.



Figure 1: Adapted from Jim Hurrell – This picture is a schematic representation of the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation. In the positive phase the pressure is low at the pole and high at middle latitudes. This is the positive phase because if you calculate the difference between middle and high latitudes it is large. In the negative phase the pressure is not as low at the pole and not as high at middle latitudes. This is the negative phase because if you calculate the difference between middle and high latitudes it is small. The refrigerator suggests that this is like opening and closing the refrigerator door (see Behavior).

This figure helps me with the definition. I want to focus on the low pressure at high latitudes, which in this figure is drawn idealistically at the pole. In reality, it is likely to wander off the pole, a fact that will be important in the next blog. When the pressure is low at the pole, then there is a stronger vortex of air circulating around the pole. When the pressure at the pole is not as low, then there is a weaker vortex. In both cases, strong or weak vortex, the air generally moves from west to east.

For clarity, vorticity is a parameter that describes rotation in a fluid. A vortex is a feature in a fluid dominated by vorticity – that is it is rotationally dominated. Tornadoes and hurricanes are weather features that we often call vortices; there is an obvious circulation of air in these features. In the Earth’s atmosphere at middle and high latitudes rotation is an important characteristic of the flow, due to the rotation of the Earth. The reason air moves in the west to east direction for both the weak and strong vortex cases of Figure 1 is that the rotation of the Earth is important to the flow.

In Figure 2 I have set up an even more idealized figure. I also provide this link to a Powerpoint animation, that I am not smart enough to incorporate into the blog. In the animation I have five slides that clarify the point that I make in Figure 2.



Figure 2: A vortex and a ball. In the center of the figure is low pressure, meant to be an analogue to the vortex over the pole in Figure 1. Parcels of air move around the low pressure system. If it takes the same amount of time for a parcel farther away from the low pressure center to go around the vortex as a parcel nearer the center, then the parcel farther away has to go faster because the distance it has to go is longer. That is why I drew that arrow, saying that air moves “faster” at the outside edge of the vortex.

To set my point a little more, imagine you are on a bridge overlooking a running stream. If you drop a stick in the water near the edge where the water is moving slowly, then if the stick drifts towards the more rapidly flowing water, it is carried downstream at the edge of the fast moving water. It does not cross the core of fast moving water – this jet of water. In fact the jet is something of a barrier that keeps material from crossing the stream. Material is transported downstream.

Back to Figure 2: Imagine that you want to roll a ball into the center of a vortex. As the ball gets to the edge it gets caught up in the flow and pulled around the edge. It does not roll into the center. Look at the this link to a Powerpoint animation to get a better idea of what’s going on.

Now go back to Figure 1. The vortex in Figure 1 is also a barrier. The southern edge of vortex is a jet stream. Air on the two sides of the vortex often has different characteristics. Intuitively, there is colder air on the poleward side. If you look at trace gases, like ozone, they are different across the edge of the vortex. The takeaway idea is that the edge of the vortex is a barrier. It’s not a perfect barrier, but air on one side is largely separated from the air on the other side. In the next blog, I will describe the difference between the strong and the weak case and its relevance to weather, climate and, perhaps, climate change.


r

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Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
By 2047, Coldest Years May Be Warmer Than Hottest in Past

If greenhouse emissions continue their steady escalation, temperatures across most of the earth will rise to levels with no recorded precedent by the middle of this century, researchers said Wednesday.

Scientists from the University of Hawaii at Manoa calculated that by 2047, plus or minus five years, the average temperatures in each year will be hotter across most parts of the planet than they had been at those locations in any year between 1860 and 2005.

To put it another way, for a given geographic area, “the coldest year in the future will be warmer than the hottest year in the past,” said Camilo Mora, the lead scientist on a paper published in the journal Nature.

NYTimes.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Has The Media Failed Us In Climate Change Reporting?

SXSW Eco Panel Highlights Media's Climate Change Coverage, Or Lack Thereof

How can the media do a better job reporting on the rapidly growing problem of climate change? Some of the country's leading climate journalists are coming together at this year's SXSW Eco festival in Austin, Texas to try and answer that question.

John Metcalfe (The Atlantic Cities), Kiera Butler (Mother Jones), Suzanne Goldenberg (The Guardian), Phil Plait (Slate) and HuffPost's Kate Sheppard will join moderator Chris Mooney to discuss the current state of climate change coverage in the media, or lack thereof, as the Obama administration ramps up discussion of the global issue and news outlets paradoxically scale back environmental coverage.

HuffingtonPost.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Thanks for your compliment bappit. Helps make it worthwhile.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
Quoting 165. BaltimoreBrian:
Bappit can you imagine how long my comments would be if I pasted the articles' text and images?

I quiver in abject terror at such a prospect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bappit can you imagine how long my comments would be if I pasted the articles' text and images?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
"Read more" links are vastly preferable to posting entire articles. Too much text deters readers (besides the ethical issues).

I like Baltimore Brian's style of posting links. No walls of text.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

!!! Special Report: U.S. builders hoard mineral rights under new homes (courtesy of etxwx)

* New York Set to Reach Climate Point-of-No-Return in 2047

I don't often editorialize, but articles and headlines like this article above make me uneasy. If there is a below-average temperature year after the deadline for any of these cities you can bet it will generate a lot of hoopla on the denier sites and blogs.

Shale Drillers Offered Water Cheaper Than U.K. Residents

Your Dot: On Walking Dogs and Warming Trends

The article immediately above includes a long quote by Kip Hansen that I disagree with.

China calls NASA conference ban 'discriminatory'

*** Shock outlook for local weather


The article above goes is about the same topic as the second article but in greater detail. My reservations still apply. A third article in ScienceDaily about this topic is here.

!!! A Strange Lonely Planet Found Without a Star

*** Longer Life for Humans Linked to Further Loss of Endangered Species

Precision Agriculture for Small Scale Farming Systems


* Major Leap Towards Graphene for Solar Cells

*** Natural gas 'fracking' has flipped US energy map, study says

Jupiter-bound Juno probe encounters glitch after Earth flyby

Archaeologists want *you* to solve this 1,200-year-old Pictish puzzle

Open source science--will you participate? (article immediately above)
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
As climate changes, animals move fast to escape the heat.



Australia is already feeling the effects of climate change, with record-breaking temperatures not just over summer, but over the past 12 months as well. Research suggests that such events are many times more likely thanks to climate change.

The IPCC fifth assessment report on climate science found evidence for climate change is unequivocal. The impacts of increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events on people and our environment are real and undeniable. But what’s happening to our animals and plants? Our research in Queensland is starting to give us some clues.


Read more at uknowispeaksense...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
161. yoboi
Quoting 155. Naga5000:
There is no "missing" or "hidden" heat...those are terms straight from the mouths of pseudo science/denier websites. If you only look at land temperatures, you've been fooled.



If you can't explain the pause you don't know the cause.......IFWC
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Quoting 144. Naga5000:
Bravo L.A. Times. They will not be publishing letters from climate deniers. Link

" I’ll concede that, aside from my easily passing the Advanced Placement biology exam in high school, my science credentials are lacking. I’m no expert when it comes to our planet’s complex climate processes or any scientific field. Consequently, when deciding which letters should run among hundreds on such weighty matters as climate change, I must rely on the experts — in other words, those scientists with advanced degrees who undertake tedious research and rigorous peer review.

And those scientists have provided ample evidence that human activity is indeed linked to climate change. Just last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — a body made up of the world’s top climate scientists — said it was 95% certain that we fossil-fuel-burning humans are driving global warming. The debate right now isn’t whether this evidence exists (clearly, it does) but what this evidence means for us." - Paul Thornton (Letter's Editor for the L.A. Times)


From the LA Times link -

Simply put, I do my best to keep errors of fact off the letters page; when one does run, a correction is published. Saying “there’s no sign humans have caused climate change” is not stating an opinion, it’s asserting a factual inaccuracy.


Exactly, a policy all journalists should use.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Quoting 146. Naga5000:


One would think.


I second that thought!
Member Since: April 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting 150. RevElvis:
Up to Five Billion Face ‘Entirely New Climate’ by 2050 - From Climate Central's Andrew Freedman

Snip




Dr. John Abraham has commented on this paper at SkepticalScience:

Global warming – a world of extremes and biological hotspots

An article just published in the journal Nature has helped advance our understanding of climate extremes and how the Earth of the near future will differ from our world as we have come to know it. We all know that as the climate warms, we will see more extremes – extreme heat and drought, storms and flooding – depending on where you live.

Regardless of the cause, it would be useful for policy makers and city planners to know when the future climate will depart from its normal variability. How much time do we have to act? A decade? A century?

This very question was the focus of the recent paper. The authors (Camilo Mora and colleagues at the Department of Geography, University of Hawaii) used the complete set of available climate models to calculate the year when the Earth's climate will move beyond what we have experienced in our recent past. In other words, in what year will the climate become more extreme than the year of the most extreme events we have witnessed in the last 150 years?

They looked at seven different climate variables, including temperature, precipitation, and ocean acidity. According to their results, the climate of the Earth will depart from its normal variability about 35 years from now (in approximately 2050) under business as usual human activity. On the other hand, if we take seriously the threat of climate action, we can push that date by some 20 years.

But this global average threshold is only part of the story. The authors recognized that climate change will occur more rapidly near the poles (for instance, temperature changes will be greater near the poles than in the tropics). However, the present climate in the polar regions is already more variable, and biologic systems and humans living there are more adapted to climatic shifts.

Read more...
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Quoting 117. SteveDa1:
Just wanted to tell you all that I'm moving on from this blog...

Farewell everyone.

Sorry to be late in my farewell. It's been a pleasure, Steve. Perhaps we will meet again on a different site!

All the best,

Nan
Member Since: April 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
From DeSmog Canada:

Influence in America: A Report on TransCanada Corporation's Keystone XL Lobbying Activities

According to a new white paper by DeSmog Canada, TransCanada Corporation, the company behind the Keystone XL pipeline proposal, has spent more than $4 million lobbying U.S. federal lawmakers and government department staff since 2010.

The results can be found in a new white paper released today by DeSmog Canada that you can view here: Influence in America: A report on TransCanada Corporation's Keystone XL Lobbying Activities [PDF].

(or click on the image below to download the white paper)



The report finds that since 2010, TransCanada, which is registered as a corporation in both the United States and Canada, has spent $2.78 million on in-company lobbyists and a further $1.26 million on U.S. based lobby firms. The vast majority of the work listed is to push U.S. government representatives for a favorable decision on the Keystone XL pipeline.

Download the XLS spreadsheet file containing the filings from the U.S. Senate Lobbying Disclosure Database here.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
There is no "missing" or "hidden" heat...those are terms straight from the mouths of pseudo science/denier websites. If you only look at land temperatures, you've been fooled.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
TEPCO Workers Remove Wrong Pipe Get Splashed With Radioactive Water

"A day after TEPCO workers mistakenly turned off (post #64) cooling pumps serving the spent pool at reactor #4 at the crippled nuclear plant comes a new accident - 6 workers apparently removed the wrong pipe from a primary filtration system and were doused with highly radioactive water. They were wearing protection yet such continuing mishaps and 'small mistakes' are becoming a pattern at the facility."

Slashdot.org

*edit
Fukushima has 'new leak of radioactive water which may have entered the Pacific Ocean

TEPCO spokesman Masayuki Ono told an urgent news conference Thursday that the overflow occurred at a tank without a water gauge and standing on an unlevel ground, slightly tilting toward the sea.

Experts have faulted TEPCO for sloppiness in its handling of the water management, including insufficient tank inspection records, lack of water gauges, as well as connecting hoses lying directly on the grass-covered ground.

dailymail.co.uk


Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
Quoting 151. yoboi:


well if they can't tell why the pause.....then most certainly they don't know the cause.......I am all for going to clean energy but when I see a hoax I will call it a hoax.......I look at the science and many here have provided some things I can agree with some of it no.....see I have an open mind......I have ask for advice from neap with several things....the most recent with what type of shingles to use on my roof to deflect the most heat.......well of course he never said anything nor did his pied- pipers......It's just about bashing people that see things different......even just yesterday steveda1 was talking about making a change and was talking about dsal operations well I could tell by the response that he got probably had his feelings hurt.....I see it with cb and his tunnels you all bash him and he is trying to do good and make a change for the better.....but no you all make fun and bash people that talk about solutions and fixing things and giving each other plusses and put dunce hats with peoples name that don't agree with you all.......Most people over at Dr Masters blog call this place the rude blog and no they are not misspelling it just how people observe how things are done over here......I have enjoyed the debates or whatever you all want to call it......no hard feelings here......I will continue to post things here.....you all can ignore it or discuss it or bash it....it's all good to me....see I can handle the intimidation and the bashing...well good day peeps...')

Oh BTW neap....any suggestions about what type of shingles best deflect the heat???? TIA


Ocean mass is the cause....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
151. yoboi
Quoting 149. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you really want to see "the BIG picture", Yoboi? I really do not think that you want to see the big picture. I think you are doing everything within your means to not see the big picture, Yoboi!

What is wrong is that there are too many people that will refuse to look at the evidence of agw straight in the face! Their ideological and theological prevent them from looking at the actual evidence! You are afraid of increased taxes, but yet you show no fear of the costs that will be associated with adaptation? This will be only for the species that are even capable of adapting. You are afraid of government control now when in the near future every democratic government is likely to fall to mob rule in the not so distant future?

Here is new prediction for you to ponder, Yoboi. 'Uncomfortable' climates to devastate cities within a decade, study says . The study, unfortunately, is behind a pay wall . I am frustrated, beyond belief, when such important papers are behind a pay wall! Now this is a study that makes a prediction concerning the fairly near future. Should this prediction validate then it will already be too late for mitigation to have any effect. If you are still a young person, Yoboi, I think it is quite possible that you reach a time when you suffer the lies that you believed that are fostered by the denial industry.

We have all tried to show the the scientific evidence and you have repeatedly, and with full intent to do so, actively searched every piece of psuedo-science you could find to post! I am through with trying to show you the scientific evidence that is readily available fore all to see. Like they say, you can lead a horse to water, bit you can't make it drink!

Bye, Yoboi.


well if they can't tell why the pause.....then most certainly they don't know the cause.......I am all for going to clean energy but when I see a hoax I will call it a hoax.......I look at the science and many here have provided some things I can agree with some of it no.....see I have an open mind......I have ask for advice from neap with several things....the most recent with what type of shingles to use on my roof to deflect the most heat.......well of course he never said anything nor did his pied- pipers......It's just about bashing people that see things different......even just yesterday steveda1 was talking about making a change and was talking about dsal operations well I could tell by the response that he got probably had his feelings hurt.....I see it with cb and his tunnels you all bash him and he is trying to do good and make a change for the better.....but no you all make fun and bash people that talk about solutions and fixing things and giving each other plusses and put dunce hats with peoples name that don't agree with you all.......Most people over at Dr Masters blog call this place the rude blog and no they are not misspelling it just how people observe how things are done over here......I have enjoyed the debates or whatever you all want to call it......no hard feelings here......I will continue to post things here.....you all can ignore it or discuss it or bash it....it's all good to me....see I can handle the intimidation and the bashing...well good day peeps...')

Oh BTW neap....any suggestions about what type of shingles best deflect the heat???? TIA
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Up to Five Billion Face ‘Entirely New Climate’ by 2050 - From Climate Central's Andrew Freedman

Map of multi-model mean results for different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios of annual mean surface temperature change in 2081– 2100.
Credit: IPCC Working Group I.


The mean annual climate of the average location on Earth will slip past the most extreme conditions experienced during the past 150 years and into new territory by between 2047 and 2069, depending on the amount of climate-warming greenhouse gases that are emitted during the next few decades, a new study found. The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, used a new index to show for the first time when the climate — which has been warming during the past century in response to manmade pollution and natural variability — will be radically different from average conditions during the 1860-2005 period.

The study shows that tropical areas, which contain the richest diversity of species on the planet as well as some of the poorest countries, will be among the first to see the climate exceed historical limits — in as little as a decade from now — which spells trouble for rainforest ecosystems and nations that have a limited capacity to adapt to rapid climate change.

According to the study, conducted by a team from the University of Hawaii, about 1 billion people currently live in areas where the climate will exceed historical bounds of variability by 2050. This number would rise to 5 billion people under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, which is the emissions path the world is currently on.

Even more strikingly, the study found that the oceans, which have absorbed about half of the manmade carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since the dawn of the industrial revolution 250 years ago, exceeded their historical bounds of pH measurements back in 2008.


ClimateCentral.org

Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Quoting 112. yoboi:


You have your view and I respect that and I have mine...I will continue to post the other side so people that lurk can see the big picture and decide what is right and what is wrong.....have a good nt naga....peace


Do you really want to see "the BIG picture", Yoboi? I really do not think that you want to see the big picture. I think you are doing everything within your means to not see the big picture, Yoboi!

What is wrong is that there are too many people that will refuse to look at the evidence of agw straight in the face! Their ideological and theological mindset prevent them from looking at the actual evidence! You are afraid of increased taxes, but yet you show no fear of the costs that will be associated with adaptation? This will be only for the species that are even capable of adapting. You are afraid of government control now when in the near future every democratic government is likely to fall to mob rule, in the not so distant future?

Here is a new prediction for you to ponder, Yoboi. 'Uncomfortable' climates to devastate cities within a decade, study says . The study, unfortunately, is behind a pay wall . I am frustrated, beyond belief, when such important papers are behind a pay wall! Now this is a study that makes a prediction concerning the fairly near future. Should this prediction validate then it will already be too late for mitigation to have any effect. If you are still a young person, Yoboi, I think it is quite possible that you reach a time when you suffer the lies that you believed in that are fostered by the denial industry.

We have all tried to show the the scientific evidence and you have repeatedly, and with full intent to do so, actively searched for every piece of psuedo-science you could find to post! I am through with trying to show you the scientific evidence that is readily available for all to see. Like they say, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink!

Bye, Yoboi.

Corrected spelling and grammar. .. Sorry,I was a bit rushed.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2541
Natural Variability Is Local

n everygreen in denial land has been that natural variability covers all climate change. All of those econometrician types, and some of Eli's favorite crazy aunts are fond of this, but they are lumpers. There is no single natural variability.

The tropics, of course, are the region with the most species, the most biodiversity, a hell of a lot of people, and an almost unchanging climate. Why do the bunnies think that the tropics have the most species, the most biodiversity and so many people? It is a lot easier dealing with a constant climate than one that varies all over the place. For one thing you don't have to change your fur with the seasons. The flip side is that nature in the tropics is not so well structured to deal with even small changes. While variability is low, human climate forcing driving the system beyond its usual local limit is dangerous.

Of course, high latitudes are vulnerable exactly because climate variability there is so high. In that case one worries about damage that is hard to reverse from large excursions (things don't always break the way you want). If there is a really warm summer, and the permafrost goes really non perm, it's hard to dig the Alaska oil industry out of the muck.

A paper to be published tomorrow in Nature The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability by Camilo Mora and friends at the University of Hawaii that makes an important contribution by recognizing this issue. Well, it does come from Hawaii, one of the places with the most constant climate on earth. They examined historic climate using 140 years of data for the past, and Earth System Models for the future (You want data from the future? Sorry, that is not currently available). They define exceeding natural variability at any position as exceeding the limits of the 140 year data record for various periods of time. For reference RCP45 is an emissions scenario that brings the CO2 mixing ratio in 2100 to 538 ppmV



Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (+18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and2047 (+14 years s.d.)under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.


The years when variability will be exceeded forever on an annual basis are shown in a) below, and on a monthly basis in b) below. Eli directs your attention to the summers in the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia.



Mora et al., also looked at evaporation, transpiration, sensible heat flux, precipitation and surface pH of the oceans.

he projected timing of the ocean’s climate departure was pushed forward to this decade when pH was considered alongside sea surface temperature. Global mean ocean pH moved outside its historical variability by 2008 (+3 years s.d.), regardless of the emissions scenario analysed.


li wonders if Richard Tol would agree that this paper explicitly endorses the IPCC consensus?
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Quoting 145. JohnLonergan:


Sounds like a good policy for a climate science blog, too.


One would think.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Quoting 144. Naga5000:
Bravo L.A. Times. They will not be publishing letters from climate deniers. Link

" I’ll concede that, aside from my easily passing the Advanced Placement biology exam in high school, my science credentials are lacking. I’m no expert when it comes to our planet’s complex climate processes or any scientific field. Consequently, when deciding which letters should run among hundreds on such weighty matters as climate change, I must rely on the experts — in other words, those scientists with advanced degrees who undertake tedious research and rigorous peer review.

And those scientists have provided ample evidence that human activity is indeed linked to climate change. Just last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — a body made up of the world’s top climate scientists — said it was 95% certain that we fossil-fuel-burning humans are driving global warming. The debate right now isn’t whether this evidence exists (clearly, it does) but what this evidence means for us." - Paul Thornton (Letter's Editor for the L.A. Times)


Sounds like a good policy for a climate science blog, too.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Bravo L.A. Times. They will not be publishing letters from climate deniers. Link

" I’ll concede that, aside from my easily passing the Advanced Placement biology exam in high school, my science credentials are lacking. I’m no expert when it comes to our planet’s complex climate processes or any scientific field. Consequently, when deciding which letters should run among hundreds on such weighty matters as climate change, I must rely on the experts — in other words, those scientists with advanced degrees who undertake tedious research and rigorous peer review.

And those scientists have provided ample evidence that human activity is indeed linked to climate change. Just last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — a body made up of the world’s top climate scientists — said it was 95% certain that we fossil-fuel-burning humans are driving global warming. The debate right now isn’t whether this evidence exists (clearly, it does) but what this evidence means for us." - Paul Thornton (Letter's Editor for the L.A. Times)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change


From Desmogblog:
Affiliations

Deutsche Shell AG — Past member, Board of Directors (1997).

REpower Systems — CEO, 2001 - 2007.

RWE Innogy — CEO, since 2008.

European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE)*— Speaker at climate change conference.

*According to their website, EIKE's Advisory Board is made up of well known climate change skeptics including Robert M. Carter, Richard S. Courtney, Hans HJ Labohm, Nils Morner, Christopher Monckton, Ian Plimer, and Zbigniew Jaworowski.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
New video reports from Heligoland, the only really German high-sea island:





Published by Deutsche Welle English, October 9, 2013
Three huge wind farms are being set up 23 kilometers off the island of Heligoland -- in the middle of the North Sea. So Heligoland is undergoing a revamp: to become the world's "first offshore service island" and serve as a base for people involved in the construction and maintenance of the wind farms.
Mayor Jörg Singer has invested heavily in the project and incurred debts: the expansion of the harbor alone is costing islanders 8 million euros. Many here say the money would be better invested in promoting tourism, Heligoland's main source of income for decades. Our series looks at the controversial changes taking place on the picturesque island of Heligoland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
141. yoboi
High Costs of Political Science

Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt, a socialist and one of the fathers of Germany’s environmental movement, is now one of many adamant IPCC report critics. Vahrenholt, who had headed the renewable energy division of RWE, that country’s second largest utility company, has co-authored a blockbuster book titled “The Neglected Sun Precludes Catastrophe” which challenges IPCC’s competence in general, and their gross (more than double) exaggeration of CO2 warming influence in particular. Now available in an English translation version, the book is currently the number one best seller in the Amazon climate category.

Dr. Vahrenholt’s lack of trust in the IPCC’s objectivity and veracity first took root when he became an expert reviewer for their 2011 report on renewable energy and discovered numerous errors. When he pointed out the inaccuracies to IPCC, their officials simply brushed them aside. Stunned by this, he asked himself “Is this the way they approached climate assessment reports?” Then, after digging into the IPCC’s climate report, he was horrified to discover that his suspicions were true.

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Interesting new video report, not only with bad news but also with some solutions as well:

Biodiversity:
The Galapagos go green
Deutsche Welle Video English, October 8, 2013
The Galapagos Islands in the Pacific Ocean, home to a stunning variety of species, have become ground zero for climate change, and the battle to stop it.
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139. yoboi
More climate scare tactics......



Sir Bob Geldof: 'All humans will die before 2030'


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Quoting 127. martinitony:
This morning's dose of bullcrap!
I corrected the error in your post!
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1447
Quoting 129. JohnLonergan:
The Stoat says: Lindzen jumps the shark

You may say %u201Cbut you declared Lindzen emeritus in 2011%u201C, and so I did. But that was over the issue of peer review. This is concerning science:
"Arctic sea ice is suddenly showing surprising growth."
That%u2019s just stupid. Really; its nothing but propaganda: designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind to quote one R. Lindzen quoting one G. Orwell.

And if you really don%u2019t know why, the answer is: this is just natural variability. Last year was exceptionally low; this year isn%u2019t exceptionally low. This is very basic stuff, and Lindzen knows it very well.*

Which reminds me: I really must do the end-of-season wrap-up post.
Noted shark-jumpers in history
* von S
* la Curry
* Singer?
* Emphasis added

It's really sad and pathetic when a Harvard-educated Ph.D. Atmospheric Physicist who was on the faculty at MIT stoops so low as to tell and support such lies. He knows damn well that he is telling denialist lies based on misinterpretation of the data behind this graph. I thought Christians weren't supposed to lie?
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1447
Quoting 135. Xulonn:
Not likely - primitive organisms seem to be resistant to radiation caused illnesses, and the Fukushima radiation levels are extremely low. As the article suggests, rapid and devastating disease spread due to overpopulation may be involved.

Is there a lesson in that possibility for humans?


If there is, we will surely ignore it.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Quoting 133. Naga5000:
Bad news out of Canada, sorry if it's a repost. Massive Starfish Deaths. Link

Possibly Fukushima related?
Not likely - primitive organisms seem to be resistant to radiation caused illnesses, and the Fukushima radiation levels are extremely low. As the article suggests, rapid and devastating disease spread due to overpopulation may be involved.

Is there a lesson in that possibility for humans?
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1447
Quoting 126. Daisyworld:


You can't really blame him. The denalist attacks and circular arguments in the climate forums at WU are beyond frustrating; bordering on infuriating. The denialists and Manufactured Doubt industry are deeply entrenched here (e.g., Angela Fritz's blog got hit by some sleeper accounts over the past week). It's enough to make the most optimistic of us walk away.

My take is that WU is one of the most visible weather/climate internet sites. If we don't work to try and stave off and quell these attacks on climate science here, who will? It's obvious that simply ignoring them doesn't make them go away, and I'd like to see some sort of solution to combat this growing public menace.



My idea prevents all that with physical proof that we can regulate/manipulate the weather....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Bad news out of Canada, sorry if it's a repost. Massive Starfish Deaths. Link

Possibly Fukushima related?
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Quoting 131. JohnLonergan:
Angel Gurria is expected to rebuke nations failing to curb CO2 emissions in a speech on Wednesday.

He will say the analysis of the climate threat is far clearer than were the warning signs for the financial crisis.

Mr Gurria is due to address the topic of climate change, investment and energy policies in a London lecture co-organised with the London School of Economics and the Climate Markets & Investors Association (CMIA)

Scale of risk

The talk coincides with a report in The Independent newspaper that claims UK Chancellor George Osborne is about to reject the recommendations of government advisers by slowing the drive to tackle global warming.

In his speech, Mr Gurria will ask if leaders overseeing the financial system that led to the "train wreck" of the banking crisis would have been happy to take the risks if they had known the consequences.



Hey John..
Just adding that the lecture is today, this Wed. October 9..
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OECD: 'No bailout' for climate threat

Governments forced to rescue the world's banking system are being warned there will be no bailout if there is a crisis in the Earth's climate system.

That is the view of the head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Angel Gurria is expected to rebuke nations failing to curb CO2 emissions in a speech on Wednesday.

He will say the analysis of the climate threat is far clearer than were the warning signs for the financial crisis.

Mr Gurria is due to address the topic of climate change, investment and energy policies in a London lecture co-organised with the London School of Economics and the Climate Markets & Investors Association (CMIA)

Scale of risk

The talk coincides with a report in The Independent newspaper that claims UK Chancellor George Osborne is about to reject the recommendations of government advisers by slowing the drive to tackle global warming.

In his speech, Mr Gurria will ask if leaders overseeing the financial system that led to the "train wreck" of the banking crisis would have been happy to take the risks if they had known the consequences.

“Unlike the financial crisis, we do not have a 'climate bailout option' up our sleeves,” he will say.

“And despite all the attention given to climate change deniers, our understanding of the scale of the risk is much better developed than our understanding of the financial risks, pre-crisis.”

An OECD source said the secretary-general's remarks were directed both at countries which had dragged their feet on reducing emissions and those which had taken a leadership position but were now starting to wobble.

Asked if the latter group included the UK, where the chancellor argued last week that Britain "should not be in front of the rest of the world” in tackling climate change, the source said the OECD was fully aware of the situation in Britain and all its member states.

Mr Gurria will also warn that renewable technologies will be harmed by stop-start policies. Renewables firms in the UK have benefited from a stable policy framework in the medium term, but are uncertain about long-term investments as right-wing Conservatives attempt to abandon CO2 targets for 2030, arguing that they damage competitiveness.

He also takes a swipe at fossil fuel subsidies, currently estimated at over $500bn a year globally. These typically provide cheap motoring for the rich, he says, and fail to help the poor.

The world, he says, needs to become zero-carbon in the second half of the century, and needs to start on that pathway immediately if climate change is to be stabilised.


Leadership
Mr Gurria, like the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon last week, is trying to galvanise action for an ambitious agreement in the planned 2015 UN climate conference in Paris.

Rich nation governments struggling against recession have been going slow on climate change policies, and developing nations have argued that they need space to expand emissions to grow their economies and draw people out of poverty.

Mr Gurria will argue that creating an infrastructure that leaves people dependent on fossil fuels will prove more costly overall in terms of the economy and public welfare.

Interviewed on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme, he said: "Countries like Britain have been leading the charge (on climate change) and have to continue to do that. It's because of leadership of UK that EU has seen that this is the way to go - and the rest of the world too."

He said energy policy has become extra challenging following technology improvements on exploiting fossil fuels. "We grew up with scarcity of oil and fuel, now we are entering a world of abundance so we're really going to have to think very hard on this."

The OECD is to publish a paper on the most effective ways of managing carbon cuts in the economy.

Source BBC >>
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Quoting 117. SteveDa1:
Just wanted to tell you all that I'm moving on from this blog...

Farewell everyone.


Hey Steve..
Sorry to hear your leaving..
This blog will be a lesser place because of your leaving..
Each and everyone of us contribute what we deem appropriate..
This effort on all our parts makes this a richer place..
A thinkers blog if I may say so..
Our planet desperately needs the input of each of us to speak for her..
If you re-consider I'm sure you will be warmly welcomed back..
Give it a think my friend.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Stoat says: Lindzen jumps the shark

You may say “but you declared Lindzen emeritus in 2011“, and so I did. But that was over the issue of peer review. This is concerning science:

arctic sea ice is suddenly showing surprising growth.


That’s just stupid. Really; its nothing but propaganda: designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind to quote one R. Lindzen quoting one G. Orwell.

And if you really don’t know why, the answer is: this is just natural variability. Last year was exceptionally low; this year isn’t exceptionally low. This is very basic stuff, and Lindzen knows it very well.*

Which reminds me: I really must do the end-of-season wrap-up post.

Noted shark-jumpers in history

* von S
* la Curry
* Singer?

* Emphasis added
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Quoting 127. martinitony:
This morning's dose of reality
Oopsie. I think you meant to write, "This morning's dose of something I found on the @IgnoranceRulz Twitter feed and rushed over to be the first to paste it here".

Anyway, one need only take a look at the tired list of "experts" Delingpole name-drops in the first paragraph--Richard Lindzen; Nigel Lawson; David Whitehouse; Donna Lamframboise; Paul Matthews; Steve McIntyre; Bishop Hill--to realize just how pathetic are these last dying bleatings from the denialosphere. The thing is, if they had science to support their POV, there'd be fresh, new names coming on board all the time. But instead we get the same. old. tired. rehashed. bunch. of. discredited. debunked. ideological. know-nothings. and. oil. industry. shills.

Ho-hum...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13528
This morning's dose of reality
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 125. Xulonn:
Quoting 117. SteveDa1:
Just wanted to tell you all that I'm moving on from this blog...

Farewell everyone.

Your contributions were greatly appreciated.
Wishing you the best wherever you go in your journey through life.


You can't really blame him. The denalist attacks and circular arguments in the climate forums at WU are beyond frustrating; bordering on infuriating. The denialists and Manufactured Doubt industry are deeply entrenched here (e.g., Angela Fritz's blog got hit by some sleeper accounts over the past week). It's enough to make the most optimistic of us walk away.

My take is that WU is one of the most visible weather/climate internet sites. If we don't work to try and stave off and quell these attacks on climate science here, who will? It's obvious that simply ignoring them doesn't make them go away, and I'd like to see some sort of solution to combat this growing public menace.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 855
Quoting 117. SteveDa1:
Just wanted to tell you all that I'm moving on from this blog...

Farewell everyone.
Your contributions were greatly appreciated.
Wishing you the best wherever you go in your journey through life.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1447
Quoting 123. RevElvis:
Sen. Jim Inhofe Recovers from Quadruple Bypass Surgery

abcnews.com

Wishing Sen. Inhofe a speedy recovery & Thanking Modern Science for catching the problem early & undoubtedly saving his life!
Hmmm... as a Senator he has great health care coverage (plus he gets paid during the shutdown). Do you suppose he would ever say: "I believed in modern medicine until I found out how much it cost" ?

Nah.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2369
Sen. Jim Inhofe Recovers from Quadruple Bypass Surgery

abcnews.com

Wishing Sen. Inhofe a speedy recovery & Thanking Modern Science for catching the problem early & undoubtedly saving his life!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 117. SteveDa1:
Just wanted to tell you all that I'm moving on from this blog...

Farewell everyone.


Take care, Steve. Hope to see you back around sometime. Thanks for the quality posts.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
And I will post all legitimate science as it comes out.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.