Barriers in the Atmosphere: Arctic Oscillation (3)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 12:50 AM GMT on October 03, 2013

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Barriers in the Atmosphere: Arctic Oscillation (3)

I want to continue with the Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation. First, however, here is the link to my August presentation. Also here is a link to the GLISAclimate.org project workspace where I collected together the materials I used in the presentation - Arctic Oscillation: Climate variability in the Great Lakes.

Here are the previous entries in the series:
Behavior
Definitions and Some Background

This blog is mostly a setup for the next one. (And yes I did notice that the IPCC AR-5 report was released, but I don’t have anything different to say about it than many of my more able colleagues. I’ll get to it.)


In the talk that I linked to above, I used a couple of diagrams that the audience told me worked very well. I am going to try them out in this blog. In the previous blogs I used the CPC Climate Glossary to give the definition of the Arctic Oscillation. “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.” This definition does not really do much for me. It’s one of those definitions that I imagine if I ask 10 atmospheric scientists to tell me what it means, I will get 12 answers. Therefore, I will draw a picture.



Figure 1: Adapted from Jim Hurrell – This picture is a schematic representation of the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation. In the positive phase the pressure is low at the pole and high at middle latitudes. This is the positive phase because if you calculate the difference between middle and high latitudes it is large. In the negative phase the pressure is not as low at the pole and not as high at middle latitudes. This is the negative phase because if you calculate the difference between middle and high latitudes it is small. The refrigerator suggests that this is like opening and closing the refrigerator door (see Behavior).

This figure helps me with the definition. I want to focus on the low pressure at high latitudes, which in this figure is drawn idealistically at the pole. In reality, it is likely to wander off the pole, a fact that will be important in the next blog. When the pressure is low at the pole, then there is a stronger vortex of air circulating around the pole. When the pressure at the pole is not as low, then there is a weaker vortex. In both cases, strong or weak vortex, the air generally moves from west to east.

For clarity, vorticity is a parameter that describes rotation in a fluid. A vortex is a feature in a fluid dominated by vorticity – that is it is rotationally dominated. Tornadoes and hurricanes are weather features that we often call vortices; there is an obvious circulation of air in these features. In the Earth’s atmosphere at middle and high latitudes rotation is an important characteristic of the flow, due to the rotation of the Earth. The reason air moves in the west to east direction for both the weak and strong vortex cases of Figure 1 is that the rotation of the Earth is important to the flow.

In Figure 2 I have set up an even more idealized figure. I also provide this link to a Powerpoint animation, that I am not smart enough to incorporate into the blog. In the animation I have five slides that clarify the point that I make in Figure 2.



Figure 2: A vortex and a ball. In the center of the figure is low pressure, meant to be an analogue to the vortex over the pole in Figure 1. Parcels of air move around the low pressure system. If it takes the same amount of time for a parcel farther away from the low pressure center to go around the vortex as a parcel nearer the center, then the parcel farther away has to go faster because the distance it has to go is longer. That is why I drew that arrow, saying that air moves “faster” at the outside edge of the vortex.

To set my point a little more, imagine you are on a bridge overlooking a running stream. If you drop a stick in the water near the edge where the water is moving slowly, then if the stick drifts towards the more rapidly flowing water, it is carried downstream at the edge of the fast moving water. It does not cross the core of fast moving water – this jet of water. In fact the jet is something of a barrier that keeps material from crossing the stream. Material is transported downstream.

Back to Figure 2: Imagine that you want to roll a ball into the center of a vortex. As the ball gets to the edge it gets caught up in the flow and pulled around the edge. It does not roll into the center. Look at the this link to a Powerpoint animation to get a better idea of what’s going on.

Now go back to Figure 1. The vortex in Figure 1 is also a barrier. The southern edge of vortex is a jet stream. Air on the two sides of the vortex often has different characteristics. Intuitively, there is colder air on the poleward side. If you look at trace gases, like ozone, they are different across the edge of the vortex. The takeaway idea is that the edge of the vortex is a barrier. It’s not a perfect barrier, but air on one side is largely separated from the air on the other side. In the next blog, I will describe the difference between the strong and the weak case and its relevance to weather, climate and, perhaps, climate change.


r

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52% increase in Arctic ice in a year. Ouch!

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Quoting 268. overwash12:
The Arctic will be at it's maximum thickness in 7 years. We are heading for colder times ahead!
(Readers: for the reasoning behind this comment, please refer to #265.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Arctic will be at it's maximum thickness in 7 years. We are heading for colder times ahead!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 264. Daisyworld:


It's so much easier to identify the villain with the twirling moustache than the one that surrounds himself with good deeds.


Nothing new, just think of Carnegie Hall, Vanderbilt University, Rockefeller Center and all the other monuments to the 19th century Robber Barons.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Quoting 265. schwankmoe:
i used to believe that some sort of progress was possible in this country (that it was at it's very base 'governable'). i lost that belief a long time ago. roughly a third of the country is not only completely insane, but they aren't going anywhere fast. they're anti-science and anti-reality.

this is why there will be no real progress as to our political system or as to climate change. this is why only a first step towards fixing what most would agree is an unsustainable healthcare system is still being litigated by the nuts a full 4 years after it became law, to the point where they intend to spike the entire world economy out of spite for the fact that the president was reelected and the voters said 'thanks but no thanks' to the nuts' own wacky agenda.

these guys didn't just get drunk on the haterade, they're full-on drug dependent. there's no reasoning them out of this hole they're in.


I completely agree. Gonna be an interesting week, isn't it?

Good luck to everyone --even the nutters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i used to believe that some sort of progress was possible in this country (that it was at it's very base 'governable'). i lost that belief a long time ago. roughly a third of the country is not only completely insane, but they aren't going anywhere fast. they're anti-science and anti-reality.

this is why there will be no real progress as to our political system or as to climate change. this is why only a first step towards fixing what most would agree is an unsustainable healthcare system is still being litigated by the nuts a full 4 years after it became law, to the point where they intend to spike the entire world economy out of spite for the fact that the president was reelected and the voters said 'thanks but no thanks' to the nuts' own wacky agenda.

these guys didn't just get drunk on the haterade, they're full-on drug dependent. there's no reasoning them out of this hole they're in.

Quoting 258. Birthmark:

Once upon a time, I was a moderate Republican. For various reasons (Reagan, mainly), I became a Democrat. For various reasons (DLC, mainly), I became an independent.

I don't expect to have a party again in my lifetime.

But enough of that. I think the point is that the anti-AGW nonsense is almost exclusively a Republican/Libertarian position. I believe that that position is held because of the worship of the "free market" that those groups practice. AGW is viewed as a criticism of capitalism by many of these people. Therefore, it *must* be a socialist/communist position based on politics. AGW *can't* be science because that would mean that science is criticizing capitalism. Clearly, that's impossible.

Throw in some god-stuff and a little old-fashioned greed and self-interest, and that covers the majority of the anti-AGW mind-set in the US.

In my opinion, of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 260. Doxienan:


Fascinating issue in Boston right now. David Koch is a board member of the PBS station (WGBH) and also contributes HUGE amounts to produce NOVA science programs. 'Forecast the Facts' started a campaign to kick Koch off the WGBH board. They claim you cannot produce factual scientific programming when it's funded by one of the biggest climate change deniers in the country...



It's so much easier to identify the villain with the twirling moustache than the one that surrounds himself with good deeds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 262. Birthmark:

If the money came without strings, I'd take it without an iota of regret. In such a situation, my job is to manage the non-profit for the benefit of others without regard to what I personally feel or believe.

Even some strings might be acceptable, if they were of no concern to the organization.
I agree. I would take the money and enjoy the irony.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
Quoting 260. Doxienan:


Fascinating issue in Boston right now. David Koch is a board member of the PBS station (WGBH) and also contributes HUGE amounts to produce NOVA science programs. 'Forecast the Facts' started a campaign to kick Koch off the WGBH board. They claim you cannot produce factual scientific programming when it's funded by one of the biggest climate change deniers in the country.

Emily Rooney (daughter of Andy Rooney and Boston TV personality) did a show last night about the Forecast the Facts campaign and concluded that it's OK to accept Koch money since WGBH claims he does not have any editorial authority in their programming.

What do you think? The Kochs give lots of money to various groups. They give hundreds of millions to MIT (including a cancer research center and a new day-care center). Would you accept their donations if you ran a large non-profit? Or would you tell them to shove it?

If the money came without strings, I'd take it without an iota of regret. In such a situation, my job is to manage the non-profit for the benefit of others without regard to what I personally feel or believe.

Even some strings might be acceptable, if they were of no concern to the organization.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 259. Doxienan:


I have a few long-time Republican friends. In New Hampshire, the Repubs were always environmentalists (of course, they hunt and fish, so they want the land to be conserved and the water to be clean). My close R friends voted for Obama, and believe the CC science. Most of the others, I believe, are hoping that the Repub party returns to its senses. They should not be holding their breath!

Interestingly, New Hampshire has had a large influx of "Free Staters" who moved here because of its small population and ease of being elected to office. They are a scary bunch.





Yeah, I'm vaguely aware of those nut-jobs. Just make sure the local stores carry inferior/faulty gunpowder and you should be okay.

Got nuttin'. Good luck with them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 247. JohnLonergan:
False equivalence: how 'balance' makes the media dangerously dumb
We've seen it in climate change reporting; we see it in shutdown coverage. Journalists should be unbiased, yes, but not brainless.

Let us state this unequivocally: false equivalency – the practice of giving equal media time and space to demonstrably invalid positions for the sake of supposed reportorial balance – is dishonest, pernicious and cowardly.

Read more at The Guardian


Fascinating issue in Boston right now. David Koch is a board member of the PBS station (WGBH) and also contributes HUGE amounts to produce NOVA science programs. 'Forecast the Facts' started a campaign to kick Koch off the WGBH board. They claim you cannot produce factual scientific programming when it's funded by one of the biggest climate change deniers in the country.

Emily Rooney (daughter of Andy Rooney and Boston TV personality) did a show last night about the Forecast the Facts campaign and concluded that it's OK to accept Koch money since WGBH claims he does not have any editorial authority in their programming.

What do you think? The Kochs give lots of money to various groups. They give hundreds of millions to MIT (including a cancer research center and a new day-care center). Would you accept their donations if you ran a large non-profit? Or would you tell them to shove it?
Member Since: April 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting 258. Birthmark:

Once upon a time, I was a moderate Republican. For various reasons (Reagan, mainly), I became a Democrat. For various reasons (DLC, mainly), I became an independent.

I don't expect to have a party again in my lifetime.

But enough of that. I think the point is that the anti-AGW nonsense is almost exclusively a Republican/Libertarian position. I believe that that position is held because of the worship of the "free market" that those groups practice. AGW is viewed as a criticism of capitalism by many of these people. Therefore, it *must* be a socialist/communist position based on politics. AGW *can't* be science because that would mean that science is criticizing capitalism. Clearly, that's impossible.

Throw in some god-stuff and a little old-fashioned greed and self-interest, and that covers the majority of the anti-AGW mind-set in the US.

In my opinion, of course.


I have a few long-time Republican friends. In New Hampshire, the Repubs were always environmentalists (of course, they hunt and fish, so they want the land to be conserved and the water to be clean). My close R friends voted for Obama, and believe the CC science. Most of the others, I believe, are hoping that the Repub party returns to its senses. They should not be holding their breath!

Interestingly, New Hampshire has had a large influx of "Free Staters" who moved here because of its small population and ease of being elected to office. They are a scary bunch.




Member Since: April 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting 255. FLwolverine:
I have a lot of sympathy for moderate Republicans - there used to be a lot of them, and I think they're still out there, keeping their heads down and hoping they can find someone to vote for. They really need to take back their party from the far right crazies.

Astrometeor, some of the craziest sounding Reps are quite smart. Eg, Ted Cruz got a lot of publicity and made a lot of tea party points with no risk to himself. His filibuster wasn't about Obamacare - it was about Ted Cruz.

Once upon a time, I was a moderate Republican. For various reasons (Reagan, mainly), I became a Democrat. For various reasons (DLC, mainly), I became an independent.

I don't expect to have a party again in my lifetime.

But enough of that. I think the point is that the anti-AGW nonsense is almost exclusively a Republican/Libertarian position. I believe that that position is held because of the worship of the "free market" that those groups practice. AGW is viewed as a criticism of capitalism by many of these people. Therefore, it *must* be a socialist/communist position based on politics. AGW *can't* be science because that would mean that science is criticizing capitalism. Clearly, that's impossible.

Throw in some god-stuff and a little old-fashioned greed and self-interest, and that covers the majority of the anti-AGW mind-set in the US.

In my opinion, of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 250. overwash12:
Keep food on the table,so you and I can blog.


That can be done without emissions...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20390
Quoting 253. Naga5000:


Republicans are not bad. It's the extremes in the party that think...well...here, you can see exactly what they think. Link Unfortunately they have a really loud voice in the party at the moment.

I take sincere issue with this kind of crazy from anyone. That being said, republicans are fine, we can disagree on issues come to compromises and move on like we always have. These few with the loudest voices are mind blowingly insane, however.
I have a lot of sympathy for moderate Republicans - there used to be a lot of them, and I think they're still out there, keeping their heads down and hoping they can find someone to vote for. They really need to take back their party from the far right crazies.

Astrometeor, some of the craziest sounding Reps are quite smart. Eg, Ted Cruz got a lot of publicity and made a lot of tea party points with no risk to himself. His filibuster wasn't about Obamacare - it was about Ted Cruz.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
Quoting 253. Naga5000:


Republicans are not bad. It's the extremes in the party that think...well...here, you can see exactly what they think. Link Unfortunately they have a really loud voice in the party at the moment.

I take sincere issue with this kind of crazy from anyone. That being said, republicans are fine, we can disagree on issues come to compromises and move on like we always have. These few with the loudest voices are mind blowingly insane, however.


Thanks Naga!

Wow, that link was interesting...to say the least. There's even a anti-muslim tab, lol. I wonder if the people down in Murfreesboro, TN read that site, they lost 3 times in court over a potential mosque down there. I believe the mosque is now open.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 252. Astrometeor:
Here's my only political comment on the day: I believe in AGW, and yet still claim my party to be Republican/Libertarian.

That being said, there is absolutely nobody in the US Congress that I would vote for. Most of the GOP disgusts me. And it's even worse in the TN GOP, there are some true idiots (what's the phrase, dumber than brick?) in the TN General Assembly, we can't even get wine back into our grocery stores even though 70-80% of the public is in support of the change. Stupid liquor lobby.

//rant over.

Just wanted to let you all know that not all Reps are stupid, just most. Wouldn't be the first time though that a party has gone under for 20-25 years...


Republicans are not bad. It's the extremes in the party that think...well...here, you can see exactly what they think. Link Unfortunately they have a really loud voice in the party at the moment.

I take sincere issue with this kind of crazy from anyone. That being said, republicans are fine, we can disagree on issues come to compromises and move on like we always have. These few with the loudest voices are mind blowingly insane, however.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3215
Here's my only political comment on the day: I believe in AGW, and yet still claim my party to be Republican/Libertarian.

That being said, there is absolutely nobody in the US Congress that I would vote for. Most of the GOP disgusts me. And it's even worse in the TN GOP, there are some true idiots (what's the phrase, dumber than brick?) in the TN General Assembly, we can't even get wine back into our grocery stores even though 70-80% of the public is in support of the change. Stupid liquor lobby.

//rant over.

Just wanted to let you all know that not all Reps are stupid, just most. Wouldn't be the first time though that a party has gone under for 20-25 years...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 250. overwash12:
Keep food on the table,so you and I can blog.


This isn't about truckers, but rather a very small group of truckers (30) who have lost their minds. We don't dislike truckers, we dislike crazy.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3215
Quoting 249. cyclonebuster:


Emissions...
Keep food on the table,so you and I can blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 248. overwash12:
I'm not a trucker,but without them it would be total chaos. What does that have to do with climate change,IDK! :)


Emissions...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20390
I'm not a trucker,but without them it would be total chaos. What does that have to do with climate change,IDK! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
False equivalence: how 'balance' makes the media dangerously dumb
We've seen it in climate change reporting; we see it in shutdown coverage. Journalists should be unbiased, yes, but not brainless.

Let us state this unequivocally: false equivalency – the practice of giving equal media time and space to demonstrably invalid positions for the sake of supposed reportorial balance – is dishonest, pernicious and cowardly.

Read more at The Guardian
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Aw, see, now I almost feel sorry for the poor little trolls truckers:

Dozens, not thousands, show up for DC trucker protest

Police say a convoy of about 30 trucks began traveling north on Interstate 95 from Doswell, Va., on Friday morning. The truckers are circling the Beltway.
However, the presence was not quite the thousands of truckers that organizers had predicted, or the ten thousand Fox News had asserted. On Friday morning, just a handful of people had showed up at a key staging area.


IOW, here's how many were expected:
................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. 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.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .

Here's how many showed up:

..............................

All hail the great and powerful "30 Truckers Sort-Of Ride For The Constitution Or Something"!

As of yet, neither the President nor any congresspersons have yet been arrested by C.W. McCall and his gear-jammin', asphalt-chawin' good buddies. But there's still time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oops.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5913
Quoting 243. Neapolitan:
Mark these words: in a few years--perhaps as early as the next Presidential election--the ACA will have proven to be such an amazingly beneficial program that those now referring to it as "Obamacare" will revert to calling it the ACA--or they'll even seek to remind voters that it was in large part a conservative program at first.
To quote a venerable presence: true dat.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
Quoting 241. FLwolverine:
My god! If we changed the name, that guy could be my brother-in-law - the one who is going to benefit hugely from Obamacare, although I had to be careful to call it the Affordable Care Act so he would listen to the information. And then if he lives long enough, he can go on another one of those entitlement programs that's bankrupting the country, Medicare.

You know we're in trouble when you can't distinguish the Onion stories from the real life people you know.

/snark (in case any one didn't get it, although the part about my BIL is true)
Mark these words: in a few years--perhaps as early as the next Presidential election--the ACA will have proven to be such an amazingly beneficial program that those now referring to it as "Obamacare" will revert to calling it the ACA--or they'll even seek to remind voters that it was in large part a conservative program at first.
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Quoting 234. yoboi:



I support the children and grandchildren not having a national debt that they will not be able to pay.....If we don't fix things now just imagine the violence they will be faced with......If you care about the future generation you will support making changes.....
And I support the children and grandchildren having a world that is habitable. I support making changes, but you and I may not agree on the means and the objectives.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
Quoting 237. Birthmark:

I'll just leave this here, then, okay? Area Man Passionate Defender Of What He Imagines Constitution To Be

Enjoy!

My god! If we changed the name, that guy could be my brother-in-law - the one who is going to benefit hugely from Obamacare, although I had to be careful to call it the Affordable Care Act so he would listen to the information. And then if he lives long enough, he can go on another one of those entitlement programs that's bankrupting the country, Medicare.

You know we're in trouble when you can't distinguish the Onion stories from the real life people you know.

/snark (in case any one didn't get it, although the part about my BIL is true)
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
240. yoboi
The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the peace prize to the global chemical watchdog Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.



Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322
that certainly does help us understand what's going on. what's going on is, a nice chunk of the population has gone batpoop crazy. like totally bananas. pants-on-head insane.

and for some reason, these people get to be on TV.

Quoting 228. FLwolverine:

"Andrews, the co-organizer, is a Tennessean, former country music singer and conservative patriot who lives in Jacksonville. She has actively called for Obama to be impeached.

On Tuesday night, she promoted the event on Fox News and Glen Beck's The Blaze.

"We want the president of the United States removed from office," she told Fox News' Greta Van Susteren. "He's a threat to our national security, he's a threat to our way of life, he's a threat to our future generations."

A fundamentalist Christian, Andrews has said she opposes Islam and believes the president is a Muslim and "the Antichrist." She also disputes official explanations for the Sept. 11 and Boston Marathon terror attacks.
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Is wheat the new oil absorbent?

Is Rex Tillerson paying off members of The National Safety Council?

Exxon receives a safety award right after this?

Oil pipeline leaks may not be as scarce as the industry would like for us to think?

Wikipedia's list of pipeline "accidents".

Do you notice how I use deceptive language in my links, just as the denial industry does? I ask leading questions that would invite skepticism. Examples: NeapolitanFan, CAT5Hurricane, CEastwood, Ossqss, theshepherd. The big exception is that what I link is to real information and only the questions I ask can be construed as misleading.
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Quoting 231. FLwolverine:
I am probably more familiar with the Constitution and the cases interpreting it than you are. But this is not a political or legal blog, so I'm stopping there. Let's just say this is a lot more complicated than reading a document with no sense of context or history and pointing to some provision and declaring "THIS is absolutely without question what it says and means, and nothing else!"

I'll just leave this here, then, okay? Area Man Passionate Defender Of What He Imagines Constitution To Be

Enjoy!

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Quoting 231. FLwolverine:
I am probably more familiar with the Constitution and the cases interpreting it than you are. But this is not a political or legal blog, so I'm stopping there. Let's just say this is a lot more complicated than reading a document with no sense of context or history and pointing to some provision and declaring "THIS is absolutely without question what it says and means, and nothing else!"


I spewed iced coffee all over my desk when I read that.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Science is not about debate, it's about the scientific method.

The current climate consensus is a paradigm*.
The phrase 'the science is settled' is simply a way of explaining to people that there is paradigm in this area of science.
Paradigms in science include Dalton's atomic Theory, Newton's Laws of Motion, Natural Selection, Plate Tectonics.
If enough evidence accumulates over time a paradigm shift occurs eg Relativity shifted the paradigm from Newton's Laws
Right now the 'climate consensus' IS the paradigm and there is no serious prospect of a paradigm shift on this as there is no other viable model - at present the more evidence is collected, the stronger the paradigm gets. It takes extremely strong evidence to challenge the paradigm in any science, the deniers don't have any.


The ultimate arbiter of science in the US is the National Academy of Sciences, in the UK it is the Royal Society, so see these statements:

http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/mater ials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Science-Rep ort-Brief-final.pdf

http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Socie ty_Content/policy/publications/2010/4294972962.pdf

* Link to Merriam Webster for those who are confused by big words.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
234. yoboi
Quoting 232. FLwolverine:
Re 227 - BTW should I interpret your answer to mean you condone violent overthrow? Interesting. If so, then the document you want to cite is the Declaration of Independence. I think there a few bloggers wandering around WU who would support a revolution, but they seem to think it would be like a video game or a movie. That kind of naïveté is itself a threat to the country.



I support the children and grandchildren not having a national debt that they will not be able to pay.....If we don't fix things now just imagine the violence they will be faced with......If you care about the future generation you will support making changes.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322
I like to share my encounters with local denialist friends with my WU'per CC cohorts. As a retiree, I have time to research and craft my replies carefully, and thought people here might learn something from it - or have something to add. The latest was the web article linked below, but I've just replied to one climate myth that Melissa Melton promoted, ignoring the trend in favor of bleating about the "noise" or "fluctuation." She apparently doesn't understand the implications of the 2013 Arctic sea ice minimum!

David van Harn
a.k.a. Xulonn
Boquete, Chiriqui, Panama
========================================
RE: A "TruthstreamMedia" article e-mailed to me by my conservative, conspiracy-minded friend:

Here's the article:

Man-made Global Warming: They’re Just Mad They Can’t Tax the Sun
By Melissa Melton on October 8, 2013

Nevermind that the Arctic ice cap has grown a whopping 29% in just one year — with 553,000 more miles of ice-covered ocean than last year (despite the fact that the BBC reported back in 2007 that global warming would render the Arctic ice-free by this summer).
=========================================
Here's my reply:

This is pretty much a re-hash of mostly dis-proven climate denial industry propaganda with a couple of new items included. Just about everything in the article is pretty well demolished with the real truth and sourced facts here.

Just for fun, I'll respond to one blatant piece of disinformation in your e-mail that I am quite familiar with. (I'm surprised that you would send me yet another e-mail with such a totally misleading piece on Arctic sea ice - you didn't catch that after I "educated" you on sea ice "extent" recently?)

Melissa Melton's article talks about an Arctic "ice cap," which non-scientific word but technically accurate for the Arctic - as long as the ice remains "permanent." When it finally melts out in the summer, it will no longer be an icecap. The proper term for Arctic Ocean ice is "sea Ice" which distinguishes it from "ice sheets" on land such as Greenland and Antarctica. This is an important distinction, because melting sea ice does not contribute to sea level rise, but melting of the ice sheets will be the largest factor in future sea level increases.

(Melissa's comment about the BBC report in 2007 was based on a spontaneous comment - not a peer-reviewed journal publication - by a scientist who actually said 2016 plus or minus 3 years. So there are actually 6 more years before he is proven right or wrong. But then again, denialists are not sticklers for accuracy like scientists!)

Informed people talk about "Arctic sea ice" - ice that floats on the Arctic Ocean. There are three standard measurements of sea ice - extent, area and volume. "Extent" is a navigational term, and required only 15% of a given area to be covered in ice to be counted under sea ice extent." It often runs right up to the shore - and sometimes moves away from the shores. Sea ice "volume" is the most important measurement, and it is only recently that there has been accurate satellite measurements of this parameter. Sea ice volume is definitely in a "death spiral."

Now this is very important: There are yearly fluctuations - what scientists and statisticians call "noise" - and then there are trends - typically 30 years and more for climate-related trends, and the more important factor. The below graphs show fluctuations (variations?? noise??) and the trend in the sea ice extent record.

Sea ice is discussed at many websites that are based on hard science, and not sensationalist journalism. Try here, here, here and here. The first two are science sites, and the second two are Arctic Sea ice discussion forums.




Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1396
Re 227 - BTW should I interpret your answer to mean you condone violent overthrow? Interesting. If so, then the document you want to cite is the Declaration of Independence. I think there a few bloggers wandering around WU who would support a revolution, but they seem to think it would be like a video game or a movie. That kind of naïveté is itself a threat to the country.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
Quoting 227. yoboi:




When you have time read this....It will help you understand what is going on....


Link
I am probably more familiar with the Constitution and the cases interpreting it than you are. But this is not a political or legal blog, so I'm stopping there. Let's just say this is a lot more complicated than reading a document with no sense of context or history and pointing to some provision and declaring "THIS is absolutely without question what it says and means, and nothing else!"
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
Quoting 229. yoboi:




ok...


Link

A swing and a miss. Nothing about a pause there. What gives?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
229. yoboi
Quoting 226. Birthmark:

Please show me the portion of the IPCC report that states that there has been a pause in global warming. Don't link me to some blogger, link me to the IPCC.




ok...


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322
Quoting 225. FLwolverine:

Apparently more "mainstream" trucker organizations are distancing themselves from this protest, and especially the nutcase that was posturing so loudly about arresting members of Congress (who are probably already back in their home districts for the weekend posturing to their supporters).

Link Apparently there's more than one..ah... "activist" involved.

"Andrews, the co-organizer, is a Tennessean, former country music singer and conservative patriot who lives in Jacksonville. She has actively called for Obama to be impeached.

On Tuesday night, she promoted the event on Fox News and Glen Beck's The Blaze.

"We want the president of the United States removed from office," she told Fox News' Greta Van Susteren. "He's a threat to our national security, he's a threat to our way of life, he's a threat to our future generations."

A fundamentalist Christian, Andrews has said she opposes Islam and believes the president is a Muslim and "the Antichrist." She also disputes official explanations for the Sept. 11 and Boston Marathon terror attacks.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
227. yoboi
Quoting 223. FLwolverine:
Oh for heaven's sake! Are you now condoning violence and overthrow of the government? And now it's cooling instead of warming caused by clouds?

And remember this shutdown is caused by those valiant tea party-ers that would rather destroy the US and world economy than accept reality!

Try thinking about the implications of what you are saying.




When you have time read this....It will help you understand what is going on....


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322
Quoting 224. yoboi:


well I suggest you take that up with the IPPC....they said there is a pause.... As for politics I hope that a real 3rd party will be created for the people....if you think that having a D or R is for the people then well you drank too much kool-aid......it's time for people to wake up and take this country back....ALL of DC is broke....

Please show me the portion of the IPCC report that states that there has been a pause in global warming. Don't link me to some blogger, link me to the IPCC.

EDIT TO ADD: I said nothing whatsoever about the Democratic Party. I noted the apparently imminent collapse of the Republican Party.

(I would be nearly as happy if the Democratic Party collapsed, and downright giddy if we outlawed political parties and selected our representatives on the basis of their own ideas and character --particularly the latter.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 218. Naga5000:
The truckers are also idiots and do not deserve a public stage. Link if you keep supporting crazy, crazy will continue to hang around.
Apparently more "mainstream" trucker organizations are distancing themselves from this protest, and especially the nutcase that was posturing so loudly about arresting members of Congress (who are probably already back in their home districts for the weekend posturing to their supporters).

Link
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
224. yoboi
Quoting 221. Birthmark:

I realize that you really, really believe that there is a pause in the warming...but that's just not the reality of the situation.

As for politics, what we are watching most likely is the implosion of the Republican Party of the US. (Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch, imo.)


well I suggest you take that up with the IPPC....they said there is a pause.... As for politics I hope that a real 3rd party will be created for the people....if you think that having a D or R is for the people then well you drank too much kool-aid......it's time for people to wake up and take this country back....ALL of DC is broke....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322
Quoting 220. yoboi:
The truckers remind me of the minute men.....we know how that turned out....there might just be some light at the end of this dark tunnel....we are in a pause with warming could be headed to cooling.....I would prefer the warming....
Oh for heaven's sake! Are you now condoning violence and overthrow of the government? And now it's cooling instead of warming caused by clouds?

And remember this shutdown is caused by those valiant tea party-ers that would rather destroy the US and world economy than accept reality!

Try thinking about the implications of what you are saying.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2306
Since the blog seems to be a little(?) off topic today'
I thought I'd slip this in:

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Quoting 220. yoboi:
The truckers remind me of the minute men.....we know how that turned out....there might just be some light at the end of this dark tunnel....we are in a pause with warming could be headed to cooling.....I would prefer the warming....

I realize that you really, really believe that there is a pause in the warming...but that's just not the reality of the situation.

As for politics, what we are watching most likely is the implosion of the Republican Party of the US. (Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch, imo.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
220. yoboi
The truckers remind me of the minute men.....we know how that turned out....there might just be some light at the end of this dark tunnel....we are in a pause with warming could be headed to cooling.....I would prefer the warming....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.