Definitions and Some Background: Arctic Oscillation (1)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 11:12 PM GMT on August 18, 2013

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Definitions and Some Background: Arctic Oscillation (1)

Every now and then I take an unexpected blogging hiatus because the day job is overwhelming. That’s the last three weeks as the project that I have been working on the past couple of years came to its first major milestone – a workshop on the evaluation of model projections to improve their usability in planning. Plus it is canning season – any good chutney recipes?

During the run up to the workshop, thanks to my expertise in time management, I gave a seminar on the Arctic Oscillation for a National Park Service webinar series “Climate Change in America's National Parks - Post-Sandy Recovery Series I: Storms, Barrier Islands, and Implications for the Atlantic Coastline.” I’m going to spend a few entries going through some the ideas in the presentation. First, however, here is the link to my presentation. It was recorded, but I have not figured out how to post that yet. Also here is a link to the GLISAclimate.org project workspace where I collected together the materials I used in the presentation - Arctic Oscillation: Climate variability in the Great Lakes.

The reason I was asked to give this talk followed from my participation in a planning exercise for Isle Royale National Park. During that planning project the Arctic Oscillation emerged as a topic of special interest. I have written a number of blogs in the past that discussed the Arctic Oscillation, regionally often referred to as the North Atlantic Oscillation, and its role in variability of winter and spring temperatures. We hear about the Arctic Oscillation the most when winters in the eastern half of the United States are cold and snowy. People get excited and start writing that climate change is bogus. I have put just a few of the links to previous blogs at the end.

What is the Arctic Oscillation? Here from the CPC Climate Glossary is the start of the definition of the Arctic Oscillation. “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.” I think the definition is a little easier to explain if I focus on the North Atlantic Oscillation and, again from the glossary, “The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation.” In the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation there is higher than average pressure over the pole and lower than average pressure over the North Atlantic, for example, over Iceland. In the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation there is lower than average pressure over the pole and higher than average pressure over the North Atlantic. Going back to the original focus, the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the pressure differences at sub-polar latitudes being over the North Atlantic, they might be over some other place, like the North Pacific. Here is a schematic figure showing the North Atlantic Oscillation from educational material at Lamont-Doherty.



Figure 1: Positive Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. from LDEO



Figure 2: Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. from LDEO


These changes in the weather pattern have large consequences on the weather in the U.S. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is in its positive phase, the winters in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. are moist and mild. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is in the negative phase, the winter in the same regions of the U.S. are cold and snowy. Though snowy, the actual amount of water that falls from the sky is less than average.

The discussion of the Arctic Oscillation often focuses on the winter and spring because in the U.S. the discussion of weather and climate often over emphasizes what is happening in the Interstate 95 corridor. (Isn’t it great that I-95 has its own website?). However, the Arctic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability in the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes, and this is true all of the year. When we say that something is the “dominant mode,” we mean that if we formally measure the variance and then try to describe the variance by recognizable patterns, then the single largest way to describe the variance is with the Arctic Oscillation.

Meteorologists describe the Arctic Oscillation as an atmospheric phenomenon as opposed to a phenomenon that might represent the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. The El Nino – La Nina oscillation involves both the atmosphere and ocean. Since the ocean is important, El Nino and La Nina are at least a little bit predictable. The Arctic Oscillation is notoriously difficult to predict.

The reason the Arctic Oscillation took on as much importance as it did in the Isle Royale National Park project was its impact on ecosystems. In the area around Lake Superior, when the Arctic Oscillation is in the positive phase it tends to be warm and dry. There is very little snow. When the Arctic Oscillation is in the negative phase, there are cold air outbreaks from Canada and the likelihood of large snowstorms is higher. If the atmosphere bounces back and forth between the positive and negative phase, then you can imagine a snowstorm followed by a thaw. This stands to change the ebb and flow of the annual water cycle with winter thaws and perhaps winter floods. There might be a lot of snow in the winter, but there is less snow on the ground going into spring. An example of an ecosystem impact is in the forest – if it is warmer and dryer in the spring at peak growth time, this is a major stress on the forest. Next blog a little more on the Arctic Oscillation and temperature.



r

(I will look for new likes on old blogs!)

Confounding Variability: A short blog from the early times.

Bumps and Wiggles (8)Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice, and Land

La Nina and Missouri River Flooding

Jeff Masters Extreme Arctic Oscillation

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1115. yoboi
Quoting 1113. Naga5000:


So, no, they did not say Katrina was caused by global warming. Thanks.


That's what they were hinting at...sometimes you have to read between the lines Naga.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
1114. yoboi
Quoting 1109. Naga5000:


Are you saying people on this blog have said to not use the internal combustion engine? Or are advocating for a "return to the Stone Age"?


I was asking clint eastwood to clarify what he was saying.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting 1111. yoboi:



future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2-11%


So, no, they did not say Katrina was caused by global warming. Thanks.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2694
Quoting 1108. Naga5000:


Care to show us where it said Hurricane Katrina was caused by AGW like you claimed? I sure couldn't find it.
Nor did I, Of couse after reading the abstract I was very certain (95% confidence) that it didn't say what Yoboi thought it said.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2764
1111. yoboi
Quoting 1108. Naga5000:


Care to show us where it said Hurricane Katrina was caused by AGW like you claimed? I sure couldn't find it.



future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2-11%
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting 1106. CEastwood:


A lie? You and the rest of your Gaia worshipers continue to live in your fantasy world and ignore data. I know you'd like to revert us back to the Stone Age, but it ain't happening. I'm sure you never use the internal combustion engine either.


If your skills at reading, understanding, and analyzing information were only half as good as your use of hyperbole and rhetoric.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2694
Quoting 1107. yoboi:



Are you saying some on here are saying.... do as I say not as I do????


Are you saying people on this blog have said to not use the internal combustion engine? Or are advocating for a "return to the Stone Age"?
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2694
Quoting 1105. yoboi:



Yes I read it....did not buy anything it's free


Care to show us where it said Hurricane Katrina was caused by AGW like you claimed? I sure couldn't find it.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2694
1107. yoboi
Quoting 1106. CEastwood:


A lie? You and the rest of your Gaia worshipers continue to live in your fantasy world and ignore data. I know you'd like to revert us back to the Stone Age, but it ain't happening. I'm sure you never use the internal combustion engine either.



Are you saying some on here are saying.... do as I say not as I do????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting 1104. Daisyworld:


Another day, another lie.

I'm sure SI will be along shortly to defend your right to post lies about climate science to this comment forum.

That's fine. Post all you want. A lie is a lie, no matter how many times you choose to repeat or re-word it. Reality will always be there to prove how false they are.


A lie? You and the rest of your Gaia worshipers continue to live in your fantasy world and ignore data. I know you'd like to revert us back to the Stone Age, but it ain't happening. I'm sure you never use the internal combustion engine either.
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1105. yoboi
Quoting 1099. FLwolverine:
Have you? If you bought a copy of that paper, maybe you could share it with us.



Yes I read it....did not buy anything it's free
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting 1101. CEastwood:


More definitive proof demonstration that the Earth is not warming. Exactly how long will the warmists claim that the earth is still "warming"?

Link


Another day, another lie.

I'm sure SI will be along shortly to defend your right to post lies about climate science to this comment forum.

That's fine. Post all you want. A lie is a lie, no matter how many times you choose to repeat or re-word it. Reality will always be there to prove how false they are.
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1103. Picatso
Quoting 1099. FLwolverine:
Have you? If you bought a copy of that paper, maybe you could share it with us.


Searching for the paper via google scholar yielded the following full text: Link

for Grinsted, et al.
"Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."
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Quoting 1101. CEastwood:
More definitive proof demonstration that the Earth is not warming. Exactly how long will the warmists claim that the earth is still "warming"?

Link


You still don't understand how to read a paper do you? This applies firstly to only the CIMP5 model forcings, secondly only takes into account surface temperature, ignoring the oceans, and thirdly only shows no significance at the 95% level. Did you know there are other confidence intervals? Did you know that when you only cherry pick surface temps you aren't getting the full picture? Reading comprehension, my friend.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2694
More definitive proof demonstration that the Earth is not warming. Exactly how long will the warmists claim that the earth is still "warming"?

Link
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Nonexistent ice in the Arctic clogging navigation channels:

Link
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Quoting 1098. yoboi:

You need to read more than the abstract.....
Have you? If you bought a copy of that paper, maybe you could share it with us.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 1900
1098. yoboi
Quoting 1097. Birthmark:

Um, no. Below is the abstract of that paper. It mentions "Katrina magnitude events". IOW, Katrina is used as a measurement.


Abstract

Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M).





You need to read more than the abstract.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting 1094. yoboi:



Here is a start....I will add more....



Link

Um, no. Below is the abstract of that paper. It mentions "Katrina magnitude events". IOW, Katrina is used as a measurement.


Abstract

Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M).

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1096. Patrap
Quoting 1093. ScottLincoln:

Douglas! What's the name of a credible climate scientist that directly blamed Hurricane Katrina on anthropogenic climate change!?



It wont be science, trust me.

; )
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1094. yoboi
Quoting 1093. ScottLincoln:

Douglas! What's the name of a credible climate scientist that directly blamed Hurricane Katrina on anthropogenic climate change!?



Here is a start....I will add more....



Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting 1087. PensacolaDoug:






I sensed a disturbance in the force!

Douglas! What's the name of a credible climate scientist that directly blamed Hurricane Katrina on anthropogenic climate change!?
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Quoting 1087. PensacolaDoug:






I sensed a disturbance in the force!

It's coming from inside your computer. GET OUT!!!

:)
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From Ars Technica:

Why trust climate models? It’s a matter of simple science

How climate scientists test, test again, and use their simulation tools.


Talk to someone who rejects the conclusions of climate science and you’ll likely hear some variation of the following: “That’s all based on models, and you can make a model say anything you want.” Often, they'll suggest the models don't even have a solid foundation of data to work with—garbage in, garbage out, as the old programming adage goes. But how many of us (anywhere on the opinion spectrum) really know enough about what goes into a climate model to judge what comes out?

Climate models are used to generate projections showing the consequences of various courses of action, so they are relevant to discussions about public policy. Of course, being relevant to public policy also makes a thing vulnerable to the indiscriminate cannons on the foul battlefield of politics.

Skepticism is certainly not an unreasonable response when first exposed to the concept of a climate model. But skepticism means examining the evidence before making up one’s mind. If anyone has scrutinized the workings of climate models, it’s climate scientists—and they are confident that, just as in other fields, their models are useful scientific tools.

It’s a model, just not the fierce kind

Climate models are, at heart, giant bundles of equations—mathematical representations of everything we’ve learned about the climate system. Equations for the physics of absorbing energy from the Sun’s radiation. Equations for atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Equations for chemical cycles. Equations for the growth of vegetation. Some of these equations are simple physical laws, but some are empirical approximations of processes that occur at a scale too small to be simulated directly.

Cloud droplets, for example, might be a couple hundredths of a millimeter in diameter, while the smallest grid cells that are considered in a model may be more like a couple hundred kilometers across. Instead of trying to model individual droplets, scientists instead approximate their bulk behavior within each grid cell. These approximations are called “parameterizations.”

Connect all those equations together and the model operates like a virtual, rudimentary Earth. So long as the models behave realistically, they allow scientists to test hypotheses as well as make predictions testable by new observations.

Some components of the climate system are connected in a fairly direct manner, but some processes are too complicated to think through intuitively, and climate models can help us explore the complexity. So it's possible that shrinking sea ice in the Arctic could increase snowfall over Siberia, pushing the jet stream southward, creating summer high pressures in Europe that allow India’s monsoon rains to linger, and on it goes… It's hard to examine those connections in the real world, but it's much easier to see how things play out in a climate model. Twiddle some knobs, run the model. Twiddle again, see what changes. You get to design your own experiment—a rare luxury in some of the Earth sciences.



Diagram of software architecture for the Community Earth System Model. Coupled models use interacting components simulating different parts of the climate system. Bubble size represents the number of lines of code in each component of this particular model.

Kaitlin Alexander, Steve Easterbrook

In order to gain useful insights, we need climate models that behave realistically. Climate modelers are always working to develop an ever more faithful representation of the planet’s climate system. At every step along the way, the models are compared to as much real-world data as possible. They’re never perfect, but these comparisons give us a sense for what the model can do well and where it veers off track. That knowledge guides the use of the model, in that it tells us which results are robust and which are too uncertain to be relied upon.

Andrew Weaver, a researcher at the University of Victoria, uses climate models to study many aspects of the climate system and anthropogenic climate change. Weaver described the model evaluation process as including three general phases. First, you see how the model simulates a stable climate with characteristics like the modern day. “You basically take a very long run, a so-called ‘control run,'” Weaver told Ars. “You just do perpetual present-day type conditions. And you look at the statistics of the system and say, 'Does this model give me a good representation of El Niño? Does it give me a good representation of Arctic Oscillation? Do I see seasonal cycles in here? Do trees grow where they should grow? Is the carbon cycle balanced?'”

Next, the model is run in changing conditions, simulating the last couple centuries using our best estimates of the climate “forcings” (or drivers of change) at work over that time period. Those forcings include solar activity, volcanic eruptions, changing greenhouse gas concentrations, and human modifications of the landscape. “What has happened, of course, is that people have cut down trees and created pasture, so you actually have to artificially come in and cut down trees and turn it into pasture, and you have to account for this human effect on the climate system,” Weaver said.

The results are compared to observations of things like changing global temperatures, local temperatures, and precipitation patterns. Did the model capture the big picture? How about the fine details? Which fine details did it simulate poorly—and why might that be?


At this point, the model is set loose on interesting climatic periods in the past. Here, the observations are fuzzier. Proxy records of climate, like those derived from ice cores and ocean sediment cores, track the big-picture changes well but can’t provide the same level of local detail we have for the past century. Still, you can see if the model captures the unique characteristics of that period and whatever regional patterns we’ve been able to identify.

This is what models go through before researchers start using them to investigate questions or provide estimates for summary reports like those produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

More at Ars Technica >>
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2764
Quoting 1089. yoboi:



That is a bunch of BS......there has been conflict in that region long before any burning of fossil fuels.....


While conflict has been occurring there for a long time. The drought has caused over 10% of Syria's population to leave. The major cities in Syria stopped accepting the rural people affected by drought or put harsh restrictions on them. Some of these folks didn't particularly care for what the government did to them.

The drought and it's effects definitely added to the tension that existed. So It's not such B.S. if you make the connections in a very complex issue.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2694
1089. yoboi
Quoting 1068. RevElvis:
Drought Helped Spark Syria’s Civil War — Is it One of Many Climate Wars to Come?


Climate change is already hurting the world’s most vulnerable populations. Those who live in areas hit hard by drought, severe storms or rising seas and can’t relocate because of economic or social factors bear the brunt of our planet’s increasing volatility.

One way the changing climate has already made itself known is through a devastating drought — and ensuing food shortage — in Syria; it created a powder keg, and played a significant role in sparking the country’s civil war. We can expect to see similar scenarios unfold in the future.

Moyers & Company’s John Light spoke with Francesco Femia, co-founder of the Center for Climate and Security — a think tank with an advisory board consisting of retired military commanders and international affairs experts — about how climate change serves as a “threat multiplier” in volatile regions such as Syria, Egypt and Pakistan, and what America’s role should be in a world in which climate change increasingly exacerbates — and causes — international crises.


Transcript of the interview at Moyers & Company



That is a bunch of BS......there has been conflict in that region long before any burning of fossil fuels.....
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.edit
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Quoting 1022. ScottLincoln:
We haven't had any drive-by trollings yet today.






I sensed a disturbance in the force!
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I have read through the last two pages of conversation all the way to your reply of my post Overwash, which states,

Quoting 1038. overwash12:
You don't get it ,do you?

From what I have gathered you seem to think that trends we are now seeing (that is, the decline of arctic sea ice, the warming of the world's oceans, the warming of the earth's average surface temperature and so forth...) could suddenly go either way in the near-future.

We don't believe these trends will continue merely because they have been there for several decades. We don't simply choose to follow the 'common belief' because others have done so and that we have chosen to follow the agenda. The majority. The bandwagon.

No, that is not it at all! We know (not believe) that they will continue based on facts, data, signs, indications, and proofs. We don't speculate. There is no 'bandwagon'.

We have educated ourselves. I suggest you open your mind and grab a book...
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Xulonn I read your post. Thanks for not putting me on ignore. Yes,I am aware of all you mentioned in your post. I just can't get on the band wagon just yet!

I have to go down on the dock tonight and watch the rocket launch @ Wallops island. Later!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
Quoting 1082. overwash12:
Link Semi-Arid desert plataeu,hmmmm!


Semi arid areas that are marginal for agriculture are the most vulnerable to drought.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8048
1083. Xulonn
Quoting 1072. overwash12:
Of course it could not be from religious zealots who were brain washed from an early age and have no value for their fellow human beings? Surely it must be from rising sea levels! Makes perfect sense to me!
Are you simply being silly, Overwash,or did you forget to put on your reading glasses?

The report specifically blamed "ensuing food shortages." This is a fear that many analysts and critical thinkers have about the negative effects of AGW/CC on human civilization.

Snark/sarcasm doesn't work when it's totally off-base.
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Link Semi-Arid desert plataeu,hmmmm!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
Quoting 1080. Birthmark:

That worm is just adorable. /sarcasm


He just wants some luuuuuv!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8048
Quoting 1074. BaltimoreBrian:

That worm is just adorable. /sarcasm
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1079. Xulonn
Quoting 1068. RevElvis:
Drought Helped Spark Syria’s Civil War — Is it One of Many Climate Wars to Come?

snip...the Center for Climate and Security — a think tank with an advisory board consisting of retired military commanders and international affairs experts — about how climate change serves as a “threat multiplier” in volatile regions such as Syria, Egypt and Pakistan, and what America’s role should be in a world in which climate change increasingly exacerbates — and causes — international crises....snip
Thanks for that, Rev. Elvis. The center for Climate and Security is an interesting organization with an excellent web site, and I sahll visit it regularly. It is a terrific rational, logical approach to monitoring and analyzing international issues that may be the result of humans reacting to the impacts of climate change as they slowly and insidiously ramp up over time.

Highly recommended for anyone who understands and accepts the reality of AGW/CC and wants to track its increasing effect on societies.
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1078. Xulonn
Quoting 1065. overwash12:
You don't have to worry about being mean to me.I am an adult and don't drink the kool-aid like all the minions out there. Do you think you're being mean,shame on you! LOL
Hey Overwash, you're the only hard-core regular denialist here that I don't have on ignore. I totally disagree with most of your posts, and believe that you don't really understand science. But you're an interesting character, thick skinned, and remain calm under fire.

Two questions:

1) Are you familiar with the fact that "multiple lines of evidence strongly support AGW/CC" and that climate science doesn't just talk about surface and atmospheric temperatures as the symptoms of climate change? (The fact that the fact that the extra CO2 in the atmosphere is anthropogenic is unequivocal - the carbon isotopic signatures of fossil fuels proves it. I know that you are not so ignorant that you would not be aware of that. However, you do not seem to be aware of the role of CO2 as a catalyst/driver for water vapor increases, and that this link acts as an significant amplifying factor in GW, since WV is also a greenhouse gas.)

Climate Change Indicators

Greenhouse Gases
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases
Climate Forcing

Weather and Climate
Temperature
High and Low Temperatures
Precipitation
Heavy Precipitation
Drought
Severe Weather

Oceans
Ocean Heat
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Level
Ocean Acidity

Snow and Ice
Arctic Sea Ice
Glaciers
Lake Ice
Snowfall
Snow Cover
Snowpack

Society and Ecosystems
Streamflow
Pollen Season
Length of Growing Season
Leaf and Bloom Dates
Bird Wintering Ranges
Heat-Related Deaths

2) Are you aware that other nations with other political systems exist, and that their scientists also agree that AGW/CC is real even if they don't depend on grants and government financing - e.g., the support for AGW/CC by climate sicence is universal and transcends cultural and political boundaries?
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Quoting 1073. Naga5000:


I think your missing the connection. While there is some religious zealotry driving actions in that part of the world, don't you think that adding another huge sociopolitical problem like drought and lack of drinking water to an all ready unstable area may add fuel to the fire in terms, let's say, exterminating the other religious group you didn't like and have persecuted and murdered for years in the first place?

Essentially, when you limit needed resources, crazy dictators will do even more crazy to ensure they control the remaining resources.
Okay,We will rush right over and fix what has been happening over there for thousands of years!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
Quoting 1071. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



and its capable of starting a firestorm
that's yet too come


A lot of people link the foodr riots in Egypt that sparked the Arab Spring on the heat wave that decimated the Russian wheat crop that summer.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2764
Quoting 1035. Birthmark:

Ah, the Unknown Denialist rears his pin-like head again and you dutifully post his droolings. The CO2 Snowman is tilting at windmills...which are imaginary themselves.


Isn't Goddard Goddard imaginary? Nobodys ever seen him.
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Quoting 1072. overwash12:
Of course it could not be from religious zealots who were brain washed from an early age and have no value for their fellow human beings? Surely it must be from rising sea levels! Makes perfect sense to me!


I think your missing the connection. While there is some religious zealotry driving actions in that part of the world, don't you think that adding another huge sociopolitical problem like drought and lack of drinking water to an all ready unstable area may add fuel to the fire in terms, let's say, exterminating the other religious group you didn't like and have persecuted and murdered for years in the first place?

Essentially, when you limit needed resources, crazy dictators will do even more crazy to ensure they control the remaining resources.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2694
Quoting 1068. RevElvis:
Drought Helped Spark Syria’s Civil War — Is it One of Many Climate Wars to Come?


Climate change is already hurting the world’s most vulnerable populations. Those who live in areas hit hard by drought, severe storms or rising seas and can’t relocate because of economic or social factors bear the brunt of our planet’s increasing volatility.

One way the changing climate has already made itself known is through a devastating drought — and ensuing food shortage — in Syria; it created a powder keg, and played a significant role in sparking the country’s civil war. We can expect to see similar scenarios unfold in the future.

Moyers & Company’s John Light spoke with Francesco Femia, co-founder of the Center for Climate and Security — a think tank with an advisory board consisting of retired military commanders and international affairs experts — about how climate change serves as a “threat multiplier” in volatile regions such as Syria, Egypt and Pakistan, and what America’s role should be in a world in which climate change increasingly exacerbates — and causes — international crises.


Transcript of the interview at Moyers & Company
Of course it could not be from religious zealots who were brain washed from an early age and have no value for their fellow human beings? Surely it must be from rising sea levels! Makes perfect sense to me!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
1071. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1068. RevElvis:
Drought Helped Spark Syria’s Civil War — Is it One of Many Climate Wars to Come?


Climate change is already hurting the world’s most vulnerable populations. Those who live in areas hit hard by drought, severe storms or rising seas and can’t relocate because of economic or social factors bear the brunt of our planet’s increasing volatility.

One way the changing climate has already made itself known is through a devastating drought — and ensuing food shortage — in Syria; it created a powder keg, and played a significant role in sparking the country’s civil war. We can expect to see similar scenarios unfold in the future.

Moyers & Company’s John Light spoke with Francesco Femia, co-founder of the Center for Climate and Security — a think tank with an advisory board consisting of retired military commanders and international affairs experts — about how climate change serves as a “threat multiplier” in volatile regions such as Syria, Egypt and Pakistan, and what America’s role should be in a world in which climate change increasingly exacerbates — and causes — international crises.


Transcript of the interview at Moyers & Company



and its capable of starting a firestorm
that's yet too come
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
Quoting 1065. overwash12:
You don't have to worry about being mean to me.I am an adult and don't drink the kool-aid like all the minions out there. Do you think you're being mean,shame on you! LOL
I don't think we're being mean at all, but SI puts her own spin on things.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 1900
Quoting 1066. overwash12:
What? I simply said" the lack of tropical activity is like winters" sometimes we have a lot of snow and sometimes we don't. Just like tropical storms,sometimes we have a lot and sometimes we don't. Jeez!
If you had actually used those words in your original post, it would have been clear. Thanks. I don't agree with you, but thanks for explaining.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 1900
Drought Helped Spark Syria’s Civil War — Is it One of Many Climate Wars to Come?


Climate change is already hurting the world’s most vulnerable populations. Those who live in areas hit hard by drought, severe storms or rising seas and can’t relocate because of economic or social factors bear the brunt of our planet’s increasing volatility.

One way the changing climate has already made itself known is through a devastating drought — and ensuing food shortage — in Syria; it created a powder keg, and played a significant role in sparking the country’s civil war. We can expect to see similar scenarios unfold in the future.

Moyers & Company’s John Light spoke with Francesco Femia, co-founder of the Center for Climate and Security — a think tank with an advisory board consisting of retired military commanders and international affairs experts — about how climate change serves as a “threat multiplier” in volatile regions such as Syria, Egypt and Pakistan, and what America’s role should be in a world in which climate change increasingly exacerbates — and causes — international crises.


Transcript of the interview at Moyers & Company
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Quoting 1063. overwash12:
It's hard to believe in the scientists today,since most of them are agenda driven. Either politically or financially backed.

Nonsense...unless, of course, you have some evidence?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1057. FLwolverine:
Sorry, it doesn't make any more sense than it did the first time I read it.

Edited: wait a minute. I have an idea. Do you mean that you don't believe in trends, or that you don't think trends can be measured/discerned/discovered?
What? I simply said" the lack of tropical activity is like winters" sometimes we have a lot of snow and sometimes we don't. Just like tropical storms,sometimes we have a lot and sometimes we don't. Jeez!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
Quoting 1061. FLwolverine:
Do you think SouthernIllinois will scold us for being mean to BOTH overwash and CE? Geez, I don't know if I can handle that.........

/snark
You don't have to worry about being mean to me.I am an adult and don't drink the kool-aid like all the minions out there. Do you think you're being mean,shame on you! LOL
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.