Definitions and Some Background: Arctic Oscillation (1)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 11:12 PM GMT on August 18, 2013

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Definitions and Some Background: Arctic Oscillation (1)

Every now and then I take an unexpected blogging hiatus because the day job is overwhelming. That’s the last three weeks as the project that I have been working on the past couple of years came to its first major milestone – a workshop on the evaluation of model projections to improve their usability in planning. Plus it is canning season – any good chutney recipes?

During the run up to the workshop, thanks to my expertise in time management, I gave a seminar on the Arctic Oscillation for a National Park Service webinar series “Climate Change in America's National Parks - Post-Sandy Recovery Series I: Storms, Barrier Islands, and Implications for the Atlantic Coastline.” I’m going to spend a few entries going through some the ideas in the presentation. First, however, here is the link to my presentation. It was recorded, but I have not figured out how to post that yet. Also here is a link to the GLISAclimate.org project workspace where I collected together the materials I used in the presentation - Arctic Oscillation: Climate variability in the Great Lakes.

The reason I was asked to give this talk followed from my participation in a planning exercise for Isle Royale National Park. During that planning project the Arctic Oscillation emerged as a topic of special interest. I have written a number of blogs in the past that discussed the Arctic Oscillation, regionally often referred to as the North Atlantic Oscillation, and its role in variability of winter and spring temperatures. We hear about the Arctic Oscillation the most when winters in the eastern half of the United States are cold and snowy. People get excited and start writing that climate change is bogus. I have put just a few of the links to previous blogs at the end.

What is the Arctic Oscillation? Here from the CPC Climate Glossary is the start of the definition of the Arctic Oscillation. “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.” I think the definition is a little easier to explain if I focus on the North Atlantic Oscillation and, again from the glossary, “The North Atlantic Oscillation is often considered to be a regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation.” In the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation there is higher than average pressure over the pole and lower than average pressure over the North Atlantic, for example, over Iceland. In the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation there is lower than average pressure over the pole and higher than average pressure over the North Atlantic. Going back to the original focus, the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the pressure differences at sub-polar latitudes being over the North Atlantic, they might be over some other place, like the North Pacific. Here is a schematic figure showing the North Atlantic Oscillation from educational material at Lamont-Doherty.



Figure 1: Positive Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. from LDEO



Figure 2: Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. from LDEO


These changes in the weather pattern have large consequences on the weather in the U.S. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is in its positive phase, the winters in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. are moist and mild. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is in the negative phase, the winter in the same regions of the U.S. are cold and snowy. Though snowy, the actual amount of water that falls from the sky is less than average.

The discussion of the Arctic Oscillation often focuses on the winter and spring because in the U.S. the discussion of weather and climate often over emphasizes what is happening in the Interstate 95 corridor. (Isn’t it great that I-95 has its own website?). However, the Arctic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability in the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes, and this is true all of the year. When we say that something is the “dominant mode,” we mean that if we formally measure the variance and then try to describe the variance by recognizable patterns, then the single largest way to describe the variance is with the Arctic Oscillation.

Meteorologists describe the Arctic Oscillation as an atmospheric phenomenon as opposed to a phenomenon that might represent the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. The El Nino – La Nina oscillation involves both the atmosphere and ocean. Since the ocean is important, El Nino and La Nina are at least a little bit predictable. The Arctic Oscillation is notoriously difficult to predict.

The reason the Arctic Oscillation took on as much importance as it did in the Isle Royale National Park project was its impact on ecosystems. In the area around Lake Superior, when the Arctic Oscillation is in the positive phase it tends to be warm and dry. There is very little snow. When the Arctic Oscillation is in the negative phase, there are cold air outbreaks from Canada and the likelihood of large snowstorms is higher. If the atmosphere bounces back and forth between the positive and negative phase, then you can imagine a snowstorm followed by a thaw. This stands to change the ebb and flow of the annual water cycle with winter thaws and perhaps winter floods. There might be a lot of snow in the winter, but there is less snow on the ground going into spring. An example of an ecosystem impact is in the forest – if it is warmer and dryer in the spring at peak growth time, this is a major stress on the forest. Next blog a little more on the Arctic Oscillation and temperature.



r

(I will look for new likes on old blogs!)

Confounding Variability: A short blog from the early times.

Bumps and Wiggles (8)Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice, and Land

La Nina and Missouri River Flooding

Jeff Masters Extreme Arctic Oscillation

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Quoting 1312. yoboi:



thanks for the link naga i will give it a read....


Please do. This is something I worked passionately on for long hours for too little money. The amount of actual fraud is absurdly low and mainly comes post voting.
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Quoting 1308. galvestonhurricane:
Global warming? No, actually we're cooling, claim scientists
A cold Arctic summer has led to a record increase in the ice cap, leading experts to predict a period of global cooling.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/clim atechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were -cooling-claim-scientists.html


All ready debunked as showing half truths of the situation, see posts 1260 and 1265. The same things were being said after the last uptick in sea ice and we see how that turned out.
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Quoting 1308. galvestonhurricane:
Global warming? No, actually we're cooling, claim scientists
A cold Arctic summer has led to a record increase in the ice cap, leading experts to predict a period of global cooling.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/clim atechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were -cooling-claim-scientists.html
Asked and answered.

Note: I know you're probably in a great hurry to tell us how wrong we all are, but you really should read the previous comments before posting. Start with #1260.

Cheers.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2383
1312. yoboi
Quoting 1303. Naga5000:


It was never proven or prosecuted. Why would he make the claim? To push for public opinion over voter ID laws to prevent voter fraud. (SC has recently passed these ultra restrictive laws that limit early voting, eliminate voting on the last Sunday before the election, and require ID when some people cannot afford them, or cannot get them due to lack of documentation (mostly elderly)

Here is a link you may find useful. Link



thanks for the link naga i will give it a read....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
And now it's global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year
Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012 BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.


global cooling


The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.

In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.

The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter climate change.

Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.


THERE WON'T BE ANY ICE AT ALL! HOW THE BBC PREDICTED CHAOS IN 2007



Only six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a ‘conservative’ forecast. Perhaps it was their confidence that led more than 20 yachts to try to sail the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific this summer. As of last week, all these vessels were stuck in the ice, some at the eastern end of the passage in Prince Regent Inlet, others further west at Cape Bathurst.


Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer.


The BBC’s 2007 report quoted scientist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, who based his views on super-computer models and the fact that ‘we use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice’.


He was confident his results were ‘much more realistic’ than other projections, which ‘underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice’. Also quoted was Cambridge University expert

Professor Peter Wadhams. He backed Professor Maslowski, saying his model was ‘more efficient’ than others because it ‘takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice’.


He added: ‘This is not a cycle; not just a fluctuation. In the end, it will all just melt away quite suddenly.’
..

BBC


The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday’s revelations – which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet – has forced the UN’s climate change body to hold a crisis meeting.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was due in October to start publishing its Fifth Assessment Report – a huge three-volume study issued every six or seven years. It will now hold a pre-summit in Stockholm later this month.

Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance the IPCC are demanding more than 1,500 changes to the report’s ‘summary for policymakers’. They say its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

At the heart of the row lie two questions: the extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels, as well as how much of the warming over the past 150 years – so far, just 0.8C – is down to human greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural variability.




More...
Ready for lift-off: Virgin's SS2 spacecraft reaches the STRATOSPHERE - and carrier confirms that commercial space flights are 'on track' for 2014
'One small step towards a brighter future for all': Kirobo goes down in history by becoming the first robot to talk in space
Riddle of the African 'fairy circles' solved? Patches of barren land are down to grasses competing for water, claims scientist


In its draft report, the IPCC says it is ‘95 per cent confident’ that global warming has been caused by humans – up from 90 per cent in 2007.



This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: ‘In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It’s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.’

She pointed to long-term cycles in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age.

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, was one of the first to investigate the ocean cycles. He said: ‘We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.


Then... NASA satelite images showing the spread of Artic sea ice 27th August 2012
Then... NASA satelite images showing the spread of Artic sea ice 27th August 2012



...And now, much bigger: The spread of Artic sea ice on August 15 2013
...And now, much bigger: The same Nasa image taken in 2013





‘The IPCC claims its models show a pause of 15 years can be expected. But that means that after only a very few years more, they will have to admit they are wrong.’



Others are more cautious. Dr Ed Hawkins, of Reading University, drew the graph published by The Mail on Sunday in March showing how far world temperatures have diverged from computer predictions. He admitted the cycles may have caused some of the recorded warming, but insisted that natural variability alone could not explain all of the temperature rise over the past 150 years.

Nonetheless, the belief that summer Arctic ice is about to disappear remains an IPCC tenet, frequently flung in the face of critics who point to the pause.

Yet there is mounting evidence that Arctic ice levels are cyclical. Data uncovered by climate historians show that there was a massive melt in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by intense re-freezes that ended only in 1979 – the year the IPCC says that shrinking began.

Professor Curry said the ice’s behaviour over the next five years would be crucial, both for understanding the climate and for future policy. ‘Arctic sea ice is the indicator to watch,’ she said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/G lobal-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warm ing-predictions.html
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Quoting 1305. Birthmark:

There isn't. The SC AG is probably a partisan hack. Note that that is a falsifiable position. It may be falsified by producing verifiable evidence. His word simply isn't good enough.


It was a rabid misinformation campaign. The folks I worked for at the time have made many public statements on the issue and were the recipients of my research. Let's just say they are a U.S. based union that fights for civil liberties. They are also very restrictive in regards to me turning over all my research and not allowing me to keep copies due to potential leaking and plants within the organization.
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1309. yoboi
Quoting 1304. Birthmark:

A guy said something on TV? That's...well, unpersuasive. Where's the documentation? Where are the prosecutions and convictions?

(It should also be noted that SC is one of the most Republican states in the US. It is unlikely that Democrats have the organizational ability to gin up 900 fake votes. They'd be caught instantly.)

IOW, I'm calling TV shenanigans on SC's AG until he makes with the verifiable documentation.


I am on the sc ag website trying to find out....I would like to know the truth also....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Global warming? No, actually we're cooling, claim scientists
A cold Arctic summer has led to a record increase in the ice cap, leading experts to predict a period of global cooling.
By Hayley Dixon
9:55AM BST 08 Sep 2013

There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, they equivalent of almost a million square miles.

In a rebound from 2012's record low an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.

A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.

If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after the BBC predicted that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.

Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a %u201Cpause%u201D in global warming since 1997.

The original predictions led to billions being invested in green measures to combat the effects of climate change.

The changing predictions have led to the UN's climate change's body holding a crisis meeting, and the the IPCC is due to report on the situation in October. A pre-summit meeting will be held later this month.

But the leaked documents are said to show that the governments who fund the IPCC are demanding 1,500 changes to the Fifth Assessment Report - a three-volume study issued every six or seven years %u2013 as they claim its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

The extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels and how much of the warming over the past 150 years, a total of 0.8C, is down to human greenhouse gas emissions are key issues in the debate.

The IPCC says it is %u201C95 per cent confident%u201D that global warming has been caused by humans - up from 90 per cent in 2007 %u2013 according to the draft report.

However, US climate expert Professor Judith Curry has questioned how this can be true as that rather than increasing in confidence, %u201Cuncertainty is getting bigger%u201D within the academic community.

Long-term cycles in ocean temperature, she said, suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend.

At the time some scientists forecast an imminent ice age.

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, said: "We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.%u201D

The IPCC is said to maintain that their climate change models suggest a pause of 15 years can be expected. Other experts agree that natural cycles cannot explain all of the recorded warming.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/clim atechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were -cooling-claim-scientists.html
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Quoting 1298. yoboi:



South Carolina Attorney General: 900 Dead People Voted in Recent Elections (Video)


Link

A few dozen nationwide hmmmmm....that's just 1 state...


How many of those were illegal aliens also?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
1306. Xulonn
Quoting 1259. SouthernIllinois:

You forgot to mention the majority of the population of the United States of America.
No, no Natalie, tell me that's not true.

Could the majority of the population of the U.S. be so stupid and ignorant as to want sacrifice the health and safety of the people and the environment for a few short term jobs and a scheme to enrich transnational energy giants even more with no real benefit to the United States and its citizens?
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Quoting 1301. yoboi:



Why would the SC AG make such a wild claim????I would really hope there would not be voter fraud....

There isn't. The SC AG is probably a partisan hack. Note that that is a falsifiable position. It may be falsified by producing verifiable evidence. His word simply isn't good enough.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1298. yoboi:



South Carolina Attorney General: 900 Dead People Voted in Recent Elections (Video)


Link

A few dozen nationwide hmmmmm....that's just 1 state...

A guy said something on TV? That's...well, unpersuasive. Where's the documentation? Where are the prosecutions and convictions?

(It should also be noted that SC is one of the most Republican states in the US. It is unlikely that Democrats have the organizational ability to gin up 900 fake votes. They'd be caught instantly.)

IOW, I'm calling TV shenanigans on SC's AG until he makes with the verifiable documentation.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1301. yoboi:



Why would the SC AG make such a wild claim????I would really hope there would not be voter fraud....


It was never proven or prosecuted. Why would he make the claim? To push for public opinion over voter ID laws to prevent voter fraud. (SC has recently passed these ultra restrictive laws that limit early voting, eliminate voting on the last Sunday before the election, and require ID when some people cannot afford them, or cannot get them due to lack of documentation (mostly elderly)

Here is a link you may find useful. Link
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HOtWhopper says Global warming makes WUWT-ers crazy scared

..." And when it all comes down to it, the findings of climate science scare them more than anything. That's one of the main reasons they protest it so much. That's why they deny it. (The other reason is that they don't want governments to do anything to stop it. It offends their staunchly pro-individual anti-social ideology. See Smokey's comment on my other article for a classic example of both.)

Psychology shows that the conservative brain responds to fear. And there is barely a more conservative brain that that of the average WUWT-er. The disability is described here at alternet.org - an excerpt:

Consider for a moment just how terrifying it must be to live life as a true believer on the right. Reality is scary enough, but the alternative reality inhabited by people who watch Glenn Beck, listen to Rush Limbaugh, or think Michele Bachmann isn't a joke must be nothing less than horrifying.
Research suggests that conservatives are, on average, more susceptible to fear than those who identify themselves as liberals. Looking at MRIs of a large sample of young adults last year, researchers at University College London discovered that “greater conservatism was associated with increased volume of the right amygdala”. The amygdala is an ancient brain structure that's activated during states of fear and anxiety. (The researchers also found that “greater liberalism was associated with increased gray matter volume in the anterior cingulate cortex” – a region in the brain that is believed to help people manage complexity.)



I have no sympathy for them and their destructive desires and simple minds. Anthony Watts and his mob at WUWT are intent on becoming more scared by rejecting climate science and by rejecting any and all ways of mitigating global warming. Even a conservative brain unable to manage complexity shouldn't be that dumb. It's not logical! "
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1301. yoboi
Quoting 1299. Naga5000:


It's an unverifiable claim. Christ man.



Why would the SC AG make such a wild claim????I would really hope there would not be voter fraud....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
It's funny, all the links to other stories in that article no longer function. Hmm...
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Quoting 1298. yoboi:



South Carolina Attorney General: 900 Dead People Voted in Recent Elections (Video)


Link

A few dozen nationwide hmmmmm....that's just 1 state...


It's an unverifiable claim. Provide real evidence or proof or stop posting this garbage.
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1298. yoboi
Quoting 1295. Birthmark:

Dead that rose from the grave to vote? Nonsense. There might be a few dozen such votes nation-wide in total.



South Carolina Attorney General: 900 Dead People Voted in Recent Elections (Video)


Link

A few dozen nationwide hmmmmm....that's just 1 state...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting 1292. yoboi:


you are correct I should have said people that voted.....let's not even get into the voter intimidation and the dead people that somehow rose from the grave to vote in the last president election......things that make ya go hmmmmmm.....


Having worked on voter fraud and voting law from the research and community action side, there is absolutely no significant amount of fraud occurring from dead voters, voters with no id, voters casting multiple ballots. In fact during the last election the 5 or 6 actual cases of documented, prosecuted voter fraud were done in the process post vote casting.

This nonsense makes me very angry since, unlike most people, I actually was doing very detailed research and analysis on this very issue. Voter fraud at the polls is a manufactured right wing issue.
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Past 7 years in row now at or below 3.572 million square kilometers in area... Do you people see anything wrong with that?








....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 1292. yoboi:


you are correct I should have said people that voted.....let's not even get into the voter intimidation and the dead people that somehow rose from the grave to vote in the last president election......things that make ya go hmmmmmm.....

Dead that rose from the grave to vote? Nonsense. There might be a few dozen such votes nation-wide in total.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1291. schwankmoe:


indeed. as pointed out above, regression to the mean is not a recovery. and it really is that, this year's extent looks to be smack in the middle of the downward curve.

No, no, no! Just look at all the recovery!! :P



Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1287. Birthmark:

Yeah, well, you see...the problem is that hurricanes *are* weather, as opposed to climate which is defined as thrity years. See how that works?

Hurricane = ~ a couple, three weeks
Climate = 30 years

Glad I could help.


i mean, if a hurricane isn't weather, what is it?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
1292. yoboi
Quoting 1285. Birthmark:

Not true, none of them were voted in by a majority of people or even voting age adults. Not a single one of them. Very few had more than 1/3rd of adults vote for them.


you are correct I should have said people that voted.....let's not even get into the voter intimidation and the dead people that somehow rose from the grave to vote in the last president election......things that make ya go hmmmmmm.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting 1289. JohnLonergan:
It's worth stating that 2013 was still a bad year for sea ice. Not as dramatic as 2012, with major losses on the Atlantic side, a polynya near or at the north pole, fourth lowest volume, and likely sixth lowest extent but still confirming the continual downward trend.. Climate systems change in timescales too slowly for human timescales to appreciate, but the change in the Arctic has been fast enough to give us a peak into the future. If I had believed that every bounce in the stock market beginning in December 2007 was a "recovery", by March 2009, I'd have been a very poor man. In a physical system such as the Earth's climate, there needs to be a physical reason for any "recovery." So long as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate, we can reasonably expect the sea ice to continue declining.


indeed. as pointed out above, regression to the mean is not a recovery. and it really is that, this year's extent looks to be smack in the middle of the downward curve.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
Quoting 1275. yoboi:


Judith Curry, a well-known climatologist who chairs the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, finds the Met’s confident prediction of a “negligible” solar impact “difficult to understand”.



given that she seems befuddled by basic statistics, i can see why.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
It's worth stating that 2013 was still a bad year for sea ice. Not as dramatic as 2012, with major losses on the Atlantic side, a polynya near or at the north pole, fourth lowest volume, and likely sixth lowest extent but still confirming the continual downward trend.. Climate systems change in timescales too slowly for human timescales to appreciate, but the change in the Arctic has been fast enough to give us a peak into the future. If I had believed that every bounce in the stock market beginning in December 2007 was a "recovery", by March 2009, I'd have been a very poor man. In a physical system such as the Earth's climate, there needs to be a physical reason for any "recovery." So long as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate, we can reasonably expect the sea ice to continue declining.
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Quoting 1282. SouthernIllinois:

We don't know all the answers yet. Is that your idea of science?

Yes! There is not one area of science in which we can state that we have all the answers. (That's part of the reason why science is fun.) From Astronomy to Zoology, it is all uncertain to some degree.

"All the answers" is better suited to philosophy.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1278. CEastwood:
Epic fail. I'm sure that hurricanes will now be termed weather. The predictions of the foremost climatologists have again proved incorrect. Hurricane predictions are far off the mark.

Link

Yeah, well, you see...the problem is that hurricanes *are* weather, as opposed to climate which is defined as thrity years. See how that works?

Hurricane = ~ a couple, three weeks
Climate = 30 years

Glad I could help.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1271. SouthernIllinois:

That the problem I have with some too. It's a narrow minded though process. Don't know if Nea is like that but have meet folks that think it is all or nothing. If you believe in God then you have no business believing and embracing science and vise versa. I just think it's simply irrational to think one can't have faith/religion/belief (in any diety - doesn't matter) as well as being science minded.

No, the problem is allowing religious views to intrude upon science without having a good scientific reason. *That* is where Spencer falls down on the job. No one cares if he believes (or disbelieves) in god(s) personally.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1270. yoboi:



The majority of the people voted them into office....unless you have proof the elections were rigged.....Do you really think anyone in DC cares about what is right??????

Not true, none of them were voted in by a majority of people or even voting age adults. Not a single one of them. Very few had more than 1/3rd of adults vote for them.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1266. PensacolaDoug:




Me? A lobbyist?


I've been called worse things by better people!



I certainly hope so!
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1282. SouthernIllinois:

We don't know all the answers yet. Is that your idea of science?


I'm confused... That was my point. We don't know all the variables yet; we can't calculate them. That's why it's ridiculous to say what CEastwood said.
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Quoting 1278. CEastwood:
Epic fail. I'm sure that hurricanes will now be termed weather. The predictions of the foremost climatologists have again proved incorrect. Hurricane predictions are far off the mark.

Link


The only 'epic fail' here is your inability to comprehend the complex nature of the system and the incalculable amount of variables which lie within.

What are you trying to accomplish anyway? Hurting feelings of hurricane forecasters?
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1280. Patrap
Climate Change Impacts Ocean's Chemical Cycles as Temperatures Rise

First Posted: Sep 09, 2013 09:08 AM EDT

Climate change is affecting ecosystems all across the globe. Now, scientists have discovered that as conditions change, rising ocean temperatures will upset natural cycles of carbon dioxide, nitrogen and phosphorous in the world's oceans. This could have major implications for the Earth's chemical cycles, which are crucial to the regulation of various natural systems.

As ocean temperatures warm, the conditions are impacting plankton. While these creatures are tiny, they play a huge role in nutrient cycling. These creatures remove about half of all CO2 from the atmosphere during photosynthesis and then store it deep under the sea. This isolates the CO2 from the atmosphere for centuries.

"Phytoplankton, including micro-algae, are responsible for half of the carbon dioxide that is naturally removed from the atmosphere," said Thomas Mock, one of the researchers, in a news release. "As well as being vital to climate control, it also creates enough oxygen for every other breath we take, and forms the base of the food chain for fisheries so it is incredibly important for food security."

In order to see how changing conditions might affect phytoplankton, the researchers developed computer generated models. These models encompassed a global ecosystem that took into account the world ocean temperatures, 1.5 million plankton DNA sequences taken from samples and biochemical data.
"We found that temperature plays a critical role in driving the cycling of chemicals in marine micro-algae," said Mock in a news release. "It affects these reactions as much as nutrients and light, which was not known before."

The scientists discovered that under warm temperatures, marine micro-algae did not produce as many ribosomes as under lower temperatures. Since ribosomes are rich in phosphorous, this means that there will be higher ratios of nitrogen and that, consequently, the demand for nitrogen in the oceans will increase.
"This will eventually lead to a greater prevalence of blue-green algae called cyanobacteria which fix atmospheric nitrogen," said Mock.

The findings are important for understanding how the chemical cycles in our oceans will be impacted by climate change. Because these cycles can have an enormous impact on our world, learning how they will be altered in the future is crucial for understanding how the rest of our climate will fare.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
1279. Patrap
Climatologist makes seasonal Canes Forecast..?

When?

A Triple Dog "Duh"

..or Epic, Epic Fail

The Warming continues, unabated.






Fresca ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Epic fail. I'm sure that hurricanes will now be termed weather. The predictions of the foremost climatologists have again proved incorrect. Hurricane predictions are far off the mark.

Link
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1277. Patrap

J Pat Carter/Associated Press
Protesters greeted Gov. Rick Scott as he toured the newly polluted areas.


In South Florida, a Polluted Bubble Ready to Burst

By LIZETTE ALVAREZ
Published: September 8, 2013

CLEWISTON, Fla. — On wind-whipped days when rain pounds this part of South Florida, people are quickly reminded that Lake Okeechobee, with its vulnerable dike and polluted waters, has become a giant environmental problem far beyond its banks.

Beginning in May, huge downpours ushered in the most significant threat in almost a decade to the bulging lake and its 80-year-old earthen dike, a turn of events with far-reaching consequences. The summer rains set off a chain reaction that devastated three major estuaries far to the east and west, distressing residents, alarming state and federal officials and prompting calls for remedial action.

With lake waters at their limit, there were only two choices, neither of them good. One was to risk breaching the 143-mile dike, a potential catastrophe to the agricultural tracts south of the lake and the small communities that depend on them. The other was to release billions of gallons of polluted water into delicate estuaries to the east and west.

Following its post-Hurricane Katrina guidelines, the Army Corps of Engineers chose the estuaries, rather than test the dike’s vulnerabilities.

As a result, the St. Lucie River estuary in the east and the Caloosahatchee River estuary in the west, which depend on a naturally calibrated balance of salt and fresh water, were overwhelmed. The rush of fresh water from the lake and the estuaries’ own river basins, along with the pollutants carried in from farms, ranches, septic tanks and golf courses, has crippled the estuaries and, on the east coast of the state, the Indian River Lagoon.

A breeding ground for marine life, estuaries are crucial to the ecosystem. As algae caused by pollutants quickly spread and fresh water overpowered saltwater, oysters died in droves. Manatees, shellfish and the sea grasses and reefs that help sustain the estuaries all were badly hit.

“These coastal estuaries cannot take this,” said Mark D. Perry, the executive director of the Florida Oceanographic Society, based in Stuart. “Enough is enough. This cannot continue to happen. These estuaries are so important to us, our environment and our economies.”

The damage to the estuaries has been so profound and the clamor from local communities so intense that political leaders have pledged action. Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, visited the affected areas last month and proposed spending a total of $130 million for two separate projects.

One is intended to ease some of the pressure on Lake Okeechobee by allowing more water to go south into the Everglades, where it should flow naturally. The water will flow under a series of bridges that will be completed over the Tamiami Trail. By law, the water flowing into the Everglades is filtered and treated, unlike the water that heads to the estuaries.

South Florida was expressly engineered to prevent too much water from moving south, which is why most of the flow from the lake is pushed east and west. Canals to the south were dug to make way for agricultural fields, mostly containing sugar cane, and for urbanization. The little water that is released flows around those areas.

Environmentalists have fought for decades to correct the flow into the Everglades, a gargantuan and costly undertaking.

A second project would clean more of the polluted water in the St. Lucie River Basin that flows into the river. There are plans for a similar storm water treatment area on the west coast to help curb the damage.

“Every drop of water that we can send south and keep out of the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries is a win for Florida families,” Mr. Scott said recently when he proposed $90 million for one of the projects. “My message to families being impacted is that we will not give up on you.”

Among other projects quickly moving forward is one to store more water outside the lake, including on private property, and another to unclog culverts south of the lake. A prominent state senator, Joe Negron, recently held a hearing in Stuart to talk about the problems stemming from the lake and possible solutions.

A top priority is repairing the frail Herbert Hoover Dike surrounding Lake Okeechobee, which is more than half the size of Rhode Island and is renowned for its bass fishing. A 2006 report on the lake found that the dike, long ranked among the most vulnerable in the country, posed a “grave and imminent danger.”

But the repairs take time and large amounts of money.

Last year, the Corps of Engineers finished shoring up one section of the dike. It has now shifted gears and is working on replacing or repairing some of the lake’s 32 huge culverts and conducting a further analysis of the dike.

“It doesn’t take long at all to realize what a complex web water management is in South Florida,” said John Campbell, a corps spokesman. “There are no easy fixes anywhere.”

The corps built the dike after two hurricanes smashed into the region in the 1920s, flooding the area and killing 2,500 people. Decades later, its flaws are evident. For one, it was built with earthen mounds. Hurricanes and storms have taken bites out of it, causing leaks in the past.

But there is another intractable problem, as well. The corps dug channels to funnel water from the Kissimmee River into the lake and prevent flooding to the north. The channels propel the water so swiftly that six times more water can pour into the lake than the corps can pump out. When it rains heavily, the lake swells quickly.

As a result, the corps starts discharging water when the level rises above 15 ½ feet, although some leeway exists depending on the weather. This summer it hit 16 feet, close to a record high for August. The corps began to release water as quickly as it could, further damaging the estuaries.

“There is no button we can push to magically lower the lake if the inflows coming in exceed the outflows,” Mr. Campbell said.

Mr. Scott has accused the federal government of dragging its feet on making dike repairs and paying its share of the cost. But environmentalists say Mr. Scott and the Legislature have slashed the budget of the South Florida Water Management District, which oversees the state’s water flow, and have put in place some inexperienced managers.

Meanwhile, the peak of hurricane season has arrived.

“The lake is slowly beginning to recede a bit,” said Ernie Barnett, the interim executive director for the South Florida Water Management District. “But the concern is still there. All it will take is one tropical storm to put us in a massive crisis mode.”

The rush of fresh water, both from the lake and its own river basin, has had an immediate impact on the St. Lucie River estuary to the east. Life in and around it has come to a standstill this summer — one recent afternoon, boats could be tallied on one hand. Fishing piers sat forlorn. Any fish capable of swimming away have already done so. Salinity in the estuary is at zero percent, said Mr. Perry, of the Florida Oceanographic Society.

The bay, which abuts picturesque downtown Stuart, is about as inviting as someone else’s filthy bath water.

“Advisory,” read the warning signs around the estuary. “High bacteria levels. Avoid contact with the water. Increased risk of illness at this time.”

Lake Okeechobee, with its prized bass, is also struggling. Phillip Roland, the mayor of Clewiston, a lakeside town of 7,000, has witnessed many of the lake’s travails: the 1947 hurricane that drove water over the dike; seasons of drought that starved the lake, followed by storms that weakened the dike.

But he is skeptical of the hubbub, unsure that it will amount to change.

“I’ve seen this time after time,” Mr. Roland said wryly. “This problem hasn’t just started.”


A version of this article appears in print on September 9, 2013, on page A11 of the New York edition with the headline: In South Florida, a Polluted Bubble Ready to Burst.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." Isaac Asimov
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1275. yoboi
Quoting 1274. Neapolitan:
Again, one may have all the faith in the world and still consider oneself to be "embarcing science". However, that's not what's being discussed here. No, what's being discussed is some holding up Dr. Roy Spencer as some "buck stops here" paragon of scientific knowledge. My response has been and will continue to be that any person wishing to be taken as a credible scientist must abandon ancient superstitions. Spencer has not yet done so. Therefore, Spencer is not credible.


Judith Curry, a well-known climatologist who chairs the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, finds the Met’s confident prediction of a “negligible” solar impact “difficult to understand”. She has stated that “The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the Sun”. As for a predicted warming pause, she said that many scientists “are not surprised”.

Curry also notes important contributions of 60-year Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperature cycles, observing that they have been “insufficiently appreciated in terms of global climate”. When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to 1970, the climate cooled. The Pacific “flipped” back from a warm to a cold mode in 2008, and the Atlantic is also thought likely to flip back in the next few years.

Keep in mind that recent global warming alarmism has centered upon a temperature trend that began in the 1980s, occurring less than a decade after our planet came out of a three-decade cooling trend that led many to fear a coming Ice Age. As the late world-renowned atmospheric scientist Reid Bryson, formerly a leader in voicing Ice Age concern in the 1970s, said: “Before there were enough people to make any difference at all, 2 million years ago, nobody was changing the climate, yet the climate was changing, okay?” He went on to comment “You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.”

Also consider, as David Whitehouse at the Global Warming Policy Foundation points out, if current global temperature trends remain flat or become cooler, “it will mean that no one who has just reached adulthood, or younger, will have witnessed the Earth get warmer during their lifetime.”

Vladimir Bashkin and Rauf Kaliulin from the Institute of Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences state that warming during our past century is something we should have expected when coming out of a the Little Ice Age rather than resulting from any changes caused by human activities. Cold causes more disruptions for people than warming, and humanity has always prospered most during warmer periods.

Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting 1271. SouthernIllinois:

That the problem I have with some too. It's a narrow minded though process. Don't know if Nea is like that but have meet folks that think it is all or nothing. If you believe in God then you have no business believing and embracing science and vise versa. I just think it's simply irrational to think one can't have faith/religion/belief (in any diety - doesn't matter) as well as being science minded.
Again, one may have all the faith in the world and still consider oneself to be "embracing science". However, that's not what's being discussed here. No, what's being discussed is some holding up Dr. Roy Spencer as some "buck stops here" paragon of scientific knowledge. My response has been and will continue to be that any person wishing to be taken as a credible scientist must abandon ancient superstitions. Spencer has not yet done so. Therefore, Spencer is not credible.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
1273. yoboi
Quoting 1265. JohnLonergan:
Arctic sea ice recovery – WTF!!!

I know I shouldn’t really be surprised by anything in the climate change debate, but I can’t help but be flabbergasted by the recent discussion about the supposed Arctic sea ice recovery. This started with an article by David Rose in the Mail on Sunday claiming that we’re heading for a period of Global cooling. This was then repeated in the Telegraph. This all appears to be based on the observation that the September Arctic sea ice extent this year (2013) is an increase of 60% on that of last year.

I know this has already been covered by Dana in the Guardian and by Sou over at HotWhopper, but I thought I would add my own two cents worth. Firstly, the claim that the Arctic sea ice has “recovered” because this September’s sea ice extent is a 60% increase on last year is absurb. Last year (2012) was an extreme low, so a 60% increase on that does not bring us back to levels similar to what they were prior to the start of the decline. Furthermore, this is a classic example of regression to the mean. The Arctic summer sea ice extent is not the same year on year. Natural variability means that sometimes it is lower than normal, while at other times it is higher. Consider the figure below. It shows the monthly Arctic sea ice extent anomalies (blue line) and a 12 month running mean. It’s clear that there has been a significant decline since the 1960s but there is still substantial variation. Furthermore, given that the scatter is around the running mean, if you have a particular low anomaly one year, you don’t expect another low the year after. Claiming that a 60% increase on the very low value last September is a “recovery” is absolute nonsense.



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Fashion alert: Weak solar cycle 25 means keep your Long Johns
Message to warmists: adapt to climate reality and quit scaring people to make yourselves sound important!
You are here: Home › All Posts › Fashion alert: Weak solar cycle 25 means keep your Long Johns


June 10, 2013 by Larry Bell, 3 Comments

34 EmailShare 34EmailSharesubmitIf the notion of global warming has gotten you all hot and bothered, here’s something to really worry about. What if just the opposite is occurring and global temperatures not only continue to remain flat, but get much colder for a very long time? In fact, that’s exactly what some highly credentialed and well-informed scientists are predicting.

Yes, and what if carbon dioxide, particularly that 3% of total atmospheric CO2 we humans produce, winds up being a bit player, at the very most, on the stage of climactic scene changes? Instead, imagine that the leading roles are performed by other actors, principally the Sun and oceans who follow scripts written, produced and directed by none other than that incomparable impresario, Mother Nature herself.

Where, Oh Where, Has that Global Warming Gone?
For starters, while it should be understood that climate really does change, it’s also appropriate to recognize that global temperatures have been essentially flat since at least 1998. Recent readings taken from more than 30,000 measuring stations and released in 2012 by the U.K.’s Met Office and the University of East Anglia University Climate Research Unit show that world temperatures hadn’t warmed over the past 15 years.

There are many articles about solar 25....Could we be headed for a big chill?????


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Science -- Facts
Religion -- Faith

...conflict is certain.
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1270. yoboi
Quoting 1264. FLwolverine:
You really think our bought and sold congress really reflects the views of the majority of Americans? I guess I need some of what you're drinking this morning.



The majority of the people voted them into office....unless you have proof the elections were rigged.....Do you really think anyone in DC cares about what is right??????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
1269. yoboi
Quoting 1255. Neapolitan:
Yeah, Spencer can teach us all how the earth really is just 4,500 years old, what model dino-saddle Adam and Eve used as they rode through the Garden of Eden astride a brontosaurus, and how Satan devised evolution (evil-ution, see?) to keep people from turning to religion. And then he can give us his thoughts on CO2, because, you know, we're all just really dying to hear him out...

(And, no, I'm neither picking on religion nor ridiculing the faithful. I'm simply--again--pointing out that, while a person certainly has the right to believe in whatever they want to believe, they have to know that abandoning the scientific method in one area definitely casts whatever else they might have to say into doubt.)


In a way I understand your point...but you are only providing opinions....please provide the evidence that someone that has religion in there life cannot be a GREAT scientist.....and your strawman remark about Adam & Eve.... please provide the evidence that's it's all some magical fairy-tale.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
1268. Patrap
Quoting 1266. PensacolaDoug:




Me? A lobbyist?


I've been called worse things by better people!




Prolly, but your lack of catching my Humor is staggering..


Why do you even post here?

All you do is come here to side with BS, or anything that isn't science.


Why not open a Blog for your feelings, as its only emotive post you make all the time.

Same in Dr. Masters entry as well.


I think your stressed a tad, and come here to try and refute all the evidence to Climate Change, or anything that impedes on your, er, "Murican Worldview".

Yet you never cite any real "Science" Doug.

0 Blog entries.

With all you have to say, maybe try a blog.


They got FB too now.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Quoting 1265. JohnLonergan:


I'm beginning to wonder if they even think at all. There have been many supposed recoveries, none have materialized, and yet they still cling on.

Do they only respond to immediate urges in the present time without any thought?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1257. Patrap:
Because this is a uber liberal site with no time for pettiness.

Or Right wing Lobbyists from Fla.


Anything else?

Douggie?




Me? A lobbyist?


I've been called worse things by better people!


Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
Arctic sea ice recovery – WTF!!!

I know I shouldn’t really be surprised by anything in the climate change debate, but I can’t help but be flabbergasted by the recent discussion about the supposed Arctic sea ice recovery. This started with an article by David Rose in the Mail on Sunday claiming that we’re heading for a period of Global cooling. This was then repeated in the Telegraph. This all appears to be based on the observation that the September Arctic sea ice extent this year (2013) is an increase of 60% on that of last year.

I know this has already been covered by Dana in the Guardian and by Sou over at HotWhopper, but I thought I would add my own two cents worth. Firstly, the claim that the Arctic sea ice has “recovered” because this September’s sea ice extent is a 60% increase on last year is absurb. Last year (2012) was an extreme low, so a 60% increase on that does not bring us back to levels similar to what they were prior to the start of the decline. Furthermore, this is a classic example of regression to the mean. The Arctic summer sea ice extent is not the same year on year. Natural variability means that sometimes it is lower than normal, while at other times it is higher. Consider the figure below. It shows the monthly Arctic sea ice extent anomalies (blue line) and a 12 month running mean. It’s clear that there has been a significant decline since the 1960s but there is still substantial variation. Furthermore, given that the scatter is around the running mean, if you have a particular low anomaly one year, you don’t expect another low the year after. Claiming that a 60% increase on the very low value last September is a “recovery” is absolute nonsense.



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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.