From the Heartland: Farmers (2)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 12:20 AM GMT on June 23, 2013

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From the Heartland: Farmers (2)

This entry starts from the comment from the previous entry by XuLonn

“Farmers, the military - many groups with a practical interest due to dependency on climate and weather are actively adapting to AGW/CC.

I'm curious about farmers and ranchers, who tend to be politically very conservative, especially in the south, and certainly in Indiana and the Midwest where I was raised.

Do they accept AGW/CC and adapt, or do they deny it and adapt anyway?”

For the past two or three years I have often been in the company of farmers along the Front Range of Colorado. Many of these farmers are from families who have been farming this land for a century or more. Others are owners of small farms that have started to provide local organic vegetables and meat to the line of cities and towns that follow Interstate 25. This region is not a easy place to farm: water is not reliable and depends on the snowfall and snowmelt in the high Rockies, it is 5000 feet above sea level and the sunlight is harsh, there are extreme fluctuations of temperature, the air is exceedingly dry, and hail is likely.

Many of the farmers I talk to tell me that weather is completely unpredictable beyond a week or two. They are used to dealing with harsh conditions and their consequences. Combining these two facts they don’t get too pressed about climate change; perhaps, it does not seem so different from the past. Plus there are larger threats from water-use policy, development, and land-use changes. I do note, anecdotally, that the farm that grows vast amounts of sweet corn a few miles down the road seems to play the weather and climate pretty well. They plant early or late with alarming skill and occasionally get a late harvest planted in July – not an easy achievement in Colorado.

On This American Life recently there was a show Hot In My Backyard. One segment featured the State Climatologist of Colorado, Nolan Doesken. All of the state climatologists I know have farmers as a primary clientele. Much of the segment on This American Life was on how to discuss climate change with farmers. For years in his annual presentation at the Colorado Farm Show, Doesken did not explicitly mention climate change.

2012 was a year of amazing wildfires in Colorado. 2012 was dry and hot in the late winter and spring and the fires started early. Increasingly, there is high vulnerability at the wildland-urban interface. In 2012 there was loss of life, record loss of houses, loss of forest and damage of watersheds. June 11, 2013 was one of those days that had the feeling of the proverbial end times, with fires breaking out all over the state. One in the Black Forest destroyed 511 houses (breaking 2012's record) and killed two people. In the This American Life radio segment, Nolan Doesken talked about how the 2012 fires changed the way he would talk about climate change. His own observations and reports from firefighters about how the nature (ferocity and speed of increase) and the season (not just summer) of the fires were changing convinced Doesken that we were already living the world that the climate models were describing. “He (Doesken) realized, if the climate models are right, he was seeing the future. Seeing where Colorado was headed-- droughts and dead crops and fires-- and it was horrible.” Doesken did mention climate change in the 2013 Colorado Farm Show. The fires of 2012 brought it all together in a way that made it clear.

The best work that I know of about farmer’s opinions on climate change comes from Iowa State University professor, J. Gordon Arbuckle. In a 2013 paper in Climatic Change, Arbuckle and colleagues reported that 68% of farmers he surveyed in Iowa believed that the climate was changing. 28% were uncertain and only 5% believed that the climate was not changing. With regard to attribution, 10% felt that climate change was caused by humans, 23% felt it was natural, and about 35% felt it was caused by both human and natural causes. (Summary Article and Press Coverage )

These numbers are consistent with numbers from other polls, which show relatively large percentages of those in the farming community in both groups of whether or not climate change is occurring. The numbers that I have looked at show that the group that believes climate change is occurring is generally larger than the group that does not. The group that attributes climate change primarily to humans is always a minority, but that group combined with those who believe there is a human component in association with non-human fluctuations is usually 50% or larger.

I end this piece pointing out that both Nolan Doesken and J. Gordon Arbuckle work out of extension services at state universities. Polling results show that extension services are the source of information about climate change most trusted by farmers. Looking at the numbers of farmers who are concerned about climate change, there are obviously many farmers who are also able to be good messengers. This piece, Farmer’s Voices too Often Missing in Climate Reporting, highlights the need to engage these voices more actively in the public discussion. In the next entry I will talk about some of the ideas suggested by these polls.

r

Some good references:

Climate and Farming

Farming Success in an Uncertain Future (Cornell)

USDA Warns Farmers about Climate Change (and announces plans to set up climate change centers)

Reinventing Farming for a Changing Climate (NPR)

Farm Level Adjustments to Climate Change (USDA)

Climate Change More Expensive to Farmers than Climate Bill

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101. Naga5000
5:31 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:



Sorry I missed a graph that you created by you....Can you please post "your graph" again??? TIA...


You can attack me for not making graphs all you want. It's irrelevant. I am not the one making outrageous claims like:
Quoting yoboi:



What about all the heat records that still hold from the 1800's??????? Did C02 cause that or magic????Climate goes in cycles....you should know that.....
or
Quoting yoboi:



It's all a scam.....just another way to push more taxes on the working man with a carbon tax....I can't understand how you can support carbon credits....it allows people with money to buy there way out of doing something bad.....that's like if you cheat on your spouse.....it's ok i bought cheat credits so it's a wash....using tricky data sets....saying it's trapped heat after your prediction is wrong....thats not science it's BS.....


I agree with the often posted climate science and conclusions made therein. You, on the other hand, point towards conspiracy, claims of data manipulation, and numerous other diversionary tactics based solely on your opinion and nothing more. The burden is on you, otherwise, you are doing nothing but spouting unsubstantiated bull.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
100. Birthmark
5:23 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
As I said, iceage is attempting to disprove the science with cold weather reports.

Neapolitan's reports are consistent with the science and are used, imo, as examples rather than evidence.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
99. yoboi
5:15 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

Iceagecoming posts normal winter weather events in isolated spots in a hopeless attempt to counter the science.

Neapolitan posted about all-time highs that are very much out of place. It is a major heatwave for that part of the world and covers a large region. Remember, Alaska is 1/3rd the size of the lower 48.



One is Obsessed with cold weather events and one is Obsessed with warm weather events......why sugarcoat what is really going on??????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
98. yoboi
5:08 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

You didn't read closely enough, sir. I said, "Levi's analysis exaggerated the influence and outcome of the PDO in Alaska."

I said nothing about Levi whatsoever. I will now, though. Levi is very bright, gifted, likeable, and has a good nose for the weather. However, he is not infallible...and weather is not climate.



I agree weather is not climate......and thanks for correcting me...I did misread what you said....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
97. Birthmark
5:07 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:





Thanks for posting again.....You and iceagecoming post weather events....I wonder why people on here call out iceagecoming for doing such things????but you get a free pass....... I gues AAAGW is the new way....

Iceagecoming posts normal winter weather events in isolated spots in a hopeless attempt to counter the science.

Neapolitan posted about all-time highs that are very much out of place. It is a major heatwave for that part of the world and covers a large region. Remember, Alaska is 1/3rd the size of the lower 48.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
96. Birthmark
5:04 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:


I have always known Levi to be straight up.....I have never seen him exaggerate anything.....but I have not seen his every post......just going by what I see....maybe Levi will explain what you and nea countered him with.....

You didn't read closely enough, sir. I said, "Levi's analysis exaggerated the influence and outcome of the PDO in Alaska."

I said nothing about Levi whatsoever. I will now, though. Levi is very bright, gifted, likeable, and has a good nose for the weather. However, he is not infallible...and weather is not climate.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
95. yoboi
5:03 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, Levi is pretty good. He's also very wrong, as had been pointed out by Birthmark and others. The things is, intelligent as he obviously is, Levi has much to learn about climate. And so long as he continues to put more stock in delusionalists such as Bastardi, Maue, and Watts than he does peer-reviewed literature, his knowledge will remain in deficit.

By the way, I'm not sure whether you saw this over on Dr. Masters' blog forum, so here it is again:

Now that a new day is here, time for a quick catch-up on the Alaskan heat wave. This first image shows the high temperatures forecast for the state on Thursday. Note that temps in the 80s are even predicted for the North Slope:

Alaska

Here is the NWS forecast for Fairbanks. Some may call this "normal summer weather", and I suppose it would be--if we were talking about, say, Chicago. But Fairbanks is on schedule to end the month with June being by far the warmest month ever recorded there. (And with the long-range forecast showing highs in the 90s at least through next Sunday, July may be in the running, as well.)

Alaska





Thanks for posting again.....You and iceagecoming post weather events....I wonder why people on here call out iceagecoming for doing such things????but you get a free pass....... I gues AAAGW is the new way....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
94. yonzabam
4:57 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Thought I'd post that PDO graph Levi posted on Dr. Masters' last blog. During the 20th century, there was a 30 year period of anomalous cooling from the 40s to the 70s, despite rising CO2 levels. This has never been adequately explained, although 'global dimming' due to air pollution has been suggested. The resumption of warming in the late 70s coincided with the introduction of clean air laws in N. America and Europe.

However . . .

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2929
93. Neapolitan
4:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting zampaz:


Thorough research helps eliminate unnecessary assumptions, hurt feelings and the need to obfuscate or apologize.

Please note the [snip] in the comment below you misquoted. We should hold ourselves to the same level of attention to detail that we hold others to, and not be surprised when we are held accountable to details in science-oriented blogs.

---------------
1931. pwmeek 7:59 AM EDT on June 24, 2013 1
Quoting zampaz:
{snip}Things in the world are mostly average with the usual statistical outliers{snip}
LOL, I was thinking the same just last week. I may clip that statement for general use. Might even make a good sig-line.

(I'd be happy to give you credit at any level of detail you want.)
--------------
Nea you did raise an interesting point earlier regarding the frequency of recent extreme weather events.
To bring things back into the context of the blog, are long term statistics valid in terms of identifying extreme weather events this century, and if not then what?
If we assume the atmosphere is changing ;)
How will it be possible to change our existing statistical weather paradigms to adapt to a changing atmosphere?
So lemme get this right. After an admission of error on my part, you've returned to rant some more, then followed that up by accusing me of misquoting you, tossing in a handful of churlish and unnecessary insults for good measure?

Say what? Didn't you ever hear of quitting while you're ahead? ;-)

Listen, if you'd like to accuse anyone of misquoting, I'd suggest you turn your words toward pwmeek, as I merely cited him. And on a larger note, I'd also suggest, as I do to all others who exhibit tender sensitivities, that you place me on ignore. I can promise that you and I will get along much better if you do so. Thanks!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
92. Neapolitan
4:42 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:



Interesting how Levi provided you with the facts concerning the current Alaska "weather"......maybe we should ponder for a few days so we can understand the big picture.......Levi is very good......
Well, Levi is pretty good. He's also very wrong in this regard, as has been pointed out by Birthmark and others. The things is, intelligent as he obviously is, Levi has much to learn about climate. And so long as he continues to put more stock in delusionalists such as Bastardi, Maue, and Watts than he does peer-reviewed literature, his knowledge will remain in deficit.

By the way, I'm not sure whether you saw this over on Dr. Masters' blog forum, so here it is again:

Now that a new day is here, time for a quick catch-up on the Alaskan heat wave. This first image shows the high temperatures forecast for the state on Thursday. Note that temps in the 80s are even predicted for the North Slope:

Alaska

Here is the NWS forecast for Fairbanks. Some may call this "normal summer weather", and I suppose it would be--if we were talking about, say, Chicago. But Fairbanks is on schedule to end the month with June being by far the warmest month ever recorded there. (And with the long-range forecast showing highs in the 90s at least through next Sunday, July may be in the running, as well.)

Alaska
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
91. yoboi
4:41 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

Levi's facts were in error as I pointed out in that thread. Despite a steadily declining PDO since 1980, temperatures in northern Alaska rose at about same rate as temperatures globally; in central Alaska over that time period temperatures also rose, but less than in the north; meanwhile in southern Alaska temperatures were flat. So Levi's analysis exaggerated the influence and outcome of the PDO in Alaska, imo.



I have always known Levi to be straight up.....I have never seen him exaggerate anything.....but I have not seen his every post......just going by what I see....maybe Levi will explain what you and nea countered him with.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
90. zampaz
4:37 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Didn't realize it was out of context; that line alone was quoted in Dr. Masters's previous blog entry by another user, who added, "LOL, I was thinking the same just last week. I may clip that statement for general use. Might even make a good sig-line." And since you voted up that comment, I assumed--perhaps wrongly--that you were indicating assent. If not, my bad.Are you under the impression my response in #60 to zampaz was my "whole weight"? I mean, seriously?

;-)


Thorough research helps eliminate unnecessary assumptions, hurt feelings and the need to obfuscate or apologize.

Please note the [snip] in the comment below you misquoted. We should hold ourselves to the same level of attention to detail that we hold others to, and not be surprised when we are held accountable to details in science-oriented blogs.

---------------
1931. pwmeek 7:59 AM EDT on June 24, 2013 1
Quoting zampaz:
{snip}Things in the world are mostly average with the usual statistical outliers{snip}
LOL, I was thinking the same just last week. I may clip that statement for general use. Might even make a good sig-line.

(I'd be happy to give you credit at any level of detail you want.)
--------------
Nea you did raise an interesting point earlier regarding the frequency of recent extreme weather events.
To bring things back into the context of the blog, are long term statistics valid in terms of identifying extreme weather events this century, and if not then what?
If we assume the atmosphere is changing ;)
How will it be possible to change our existing statistical weather paradigms to adapt to a changing atmosphere?
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
89. Xulonn
4:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting iceagecoming:
Melbourne struggling to stay warm
Brett Dutschke, Monday June 24, 2013 - 12:38 EST

Melbourne is enduring its coldest week in 15 years...blah, blah, blah...
That's a long post for a few datapoints in the huge datasets of the scientific record. And the scientific record shows clearly that heat records still heavily outnumber cold records.

Are you truly so naive as to not understand the concept of shifting global weather patterns and the fact that it's colder than the record in some places sometimes, but hotter in many more other places?

You're like a person at the track who gets all excited when the horse you've bet you're life savings on to win is running last in the race, and down the stretch gains a length on the leader - but is still running dead last with no chance to win.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1461
88. Birthmark
4:30 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:



Interesting how Levi provided you with the facts concerning the current Alaska "weather"......maybe we should ponder for a few days so we can understand the big picture.......Levi is very good......

Levi's facts were in error as I pointed out in that thread. Despite a steadily declining PDO since 1980, temperatures in northern Alaska rose at about same rate as temperatures globally; in central Alaska over that time period temperatures also rose, but less than in the north; meanwhile in southern Alaska temperatures were flat. So Levi's analysis exaggerated the influence and outcome of the PDO in Alaska, imo.

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
87. yoboi
4:04 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Didn't realize it was out of context; that line alone was quoted in Dr. Masters's previous blog entry by another user, who added, "LOL, I was thinking the same just last week. I may clip that statement for general use. Might even make a good sig-line." And since you voted up that comment, I assumed--perhaps wrongly--that you were indicating assent. If not, my bad.Are you under the impression my response in #60 to zampaz was my "whole weight"? I mean, seriously?

;-)



Interesting how Levi provided you with the facts concerning the current Alaska "weather"......maybe we should ponder for a few days so we can understand the big picture.......Levi is very good......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
86. FLwolverine
4:02 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
A question raised by the very cold weather in South America and Australia: I understand (pretty well) how the melting Arctic ice and the temperature changes there distort the jet stream to exacerbate extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere. I also understand that the Antarctic is very different - land mass and land ice, as well as sea ice, surrounded by open water with strong currents. Does the Antarctic influence Southern Hemisphere weather the same way as the arctic (ie through the jet stream) or is there some other mechanism? Or are things just very different meteorologically down there?

Thanks.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2383
85. FLwolverine
3:51 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Are you under the impression my response in #60 to zampaz was my "whole weight"? I mean, seriously?

;-)
LOL. Not at all. I may be new but I'm not stupid.

:-)
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2383
84. JohnLonergan
3:39 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3352
83. Neapolitan
3:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting zampaz:

A partial comment meant as a joke to Dakster and taken out of context is fair game I suppose.
Oh, I see. Didn't realize it was out of context; that line alone was quoted in Dr. Masters's previous blog entry by another user, who added, "LOL, I was thinking the same just last week. I may clip that statement for general use. Might even make a good sig-line." And since you voted up that comment, I assumed--perhaps wrongly--that you were indicating assent. If not, my bad.
Quoting FLwolverine:
I think it's ok to give a neutral or even a positive answer to someone's "howyadoin?" kind of query, before dropping the whole weight of your message on them.
Are you under the impression my response in #60 to zampaz was my "whole weight"? I mean, seriously?

;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
82. philhoey
3:07 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting schistkicker:


If the gas concentrations were being driven by sudden shifts in undersea volcanic activity, we'd know. Seismic arrays can catch it; the volumes of erupted magma required would have an effect of inflation of the seafloor due to thermal expansion of the crust/upper mantle, leading to rapidly-rising global sea-levels beyond what thermal changes alone would predict; there'd be obvious thermal anomalies on he seafloor; the changes in seawater concentration of dissolved elements such as Fe would be anomalous; the ratios of stable isotopes in elements such as C, O, S are much different for atmospheric versus mantle sources. Those are just some of the many reasons that volcanism isn't an explanation for the observations, and that we'd know about it if it was happening.


Thanks -
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
81. schistkicker
3:00 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting philhoey:
The planet is obviously changing, the physical evidence is for anyone with eyes to see it. Rapid glacial movement and calving, reduction in both thickness and extent of the North Polar icecap, rising ocean levels and the increase in CO2 gases.
What is puzzling is the constant global temperature for the past number of years.
That being said:
1. I am glad to see more discussion on the global gasses feedback mechanism.
2. I am puzzled that a factor in the discussion may be missing.
Specifically some sources guess that 75% of the planet's volcanoes are under water, mainly along the plant boundaries.
The magma from these flows is between 700 to 1,200 degrees C.
According to USGS:

The most abundant gas typically released into the atmosphere from volcanic systems is water vapor (H2O), followed by carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Volcanoes also release smaller amounts of others gases, including hydrogen sulfide (H2S), hydrogen (H2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen chloride (HCL), hydrogen fluoride (HF), and helium (He).
Other than water and carbon dioxide that is some pretty nasty stuff.

I don't know of any monitoring of undersea volcanic activity, but if it is increasing, that would warm the oceans, causing sea level rise and would have a dramatic impact on polar ice. Especially if it has been occurring for some time. We would have no way of knowing about it.

Are we concentrating on the dynamics of the atmosphere too much?

Honest question – no flaming please.



If the gas concentrations were being driven by sudden shifts in undersea volcanic activity, we'd know. Seismic arrays can catch it; the volumes of erupted magma required would have an effect of inflation of the seafloor due to thermal expansion of the crust/upper mantle, leading to rapidly-rising global sea-levels beyond what thermal changes alone would predict; there'd be obvious thermal anomalies on he seafloor; the changes in seawater concentration of dissolved elements such as Fe would be anomalous; the ratios of stable isotopes in elements such as C, O, S are much different for atmospheric versus mantle sources. Those are just some of the many reasons that volcanism isn't an explanation for the observations, and that we'd know about it if it was happening.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
80. zampaz
2:57 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Skyepony:
Opposition Escalates Over Faulty Southern Leg of Keystone XL Pipeline


Last month, it was reported that TransCanada was in damage control mode concerning flaws in the newly laid southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline after dozens of anomalies, including dents and welds, were identified along a 60-mile stretch north of the Sabine River in Texas.

As if Bishop and his neighbors haven’t been through enough with the invasion of this Canadian company taking their property via eminent domain and then bulldozing their land. Now they watch as Michels digs up and rebuilds dozens of sections of the southern segment of the Keystone XL pipeline.
more at the link..


Greatly saddened by this, and by fracking that is sure to come to a tree farm in Miss, Skyepony.
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
79. Skyepony (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Opposition Escalates Over Faulty Southern Leg of Keystone XL Pipeline


Last month, it was reported that TransCanada was in damage control mode concerning flaws in the newly laid southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline after dozens of anomalies, including dents and welds, were identified along a 60-mile stretch north of the Sabine River in Texas.

As if Bishop and his neighbors haven’t been through enough with the invasion of this Canadian company taking their property via eminent domain and then bulldozing their land. Now they watch as Michels digs up and rebuilds dozens of sections of the southern segment of the Keystone XL pipeline.
more at the link..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38180
78. philhoey
2:47 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
The planet is obviously changing, the physical evidence is for anyone with eyes to see it. Rapid glacial movement and calving, reduction in both thickness and extent of the North Polar icecap, rising ocean levels and the increase in CO2 gases.
What is puzzling is the constant global temperature for the past number of years.
That being said:
1. I am glad to see more discussion on the global gasses feedback mechanism.
2. I am puzzled that a factor in the discussion may be missing.
Specifically some sources guess that 75% of the planet's volcanoes are under water, mainly along the plant boundaries.
The magma from these flows is between 700 to 1,200 degrees C.
According to USGS:

The most abundant gas typically released into the atmosphere from volcanic systems is water vapor (H2O), followed by carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Volcanoes also release smaller amounts of others gases, including hydrogen sulfide (H2S), hydrogen (H2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen chloride (HCL), hydrogen fluoride (HF), and helium (He).
Other than water and carbon dioxide that is some pretty nasty stuff.

I don't know of any monitoring of undersea volcanic activity, but if it is increasing, that would warm the oceans, causing sea level rise and would have a dramatic impact on polar ice. Especially if it has been occurring for some time. We would have no way of knowing about it.

Are we concentrating on the dynamics of the atmosphere too much?

Honest question – no flaming please.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
77. yoboi
1:47 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Naga5000:


Sorry, you have never provided evidence to back up any statement you have made and have plagiarised multiple times. Maybe this isn't the right forum to spin propaganda in.



Sorry I missed a graph that you created by you....Can you please post "your graph" again??? TIA...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
76. zampaz
1:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:


Do you trust govt???? rep & dems they are all the same they do not care about the people.....only we the people can make a change....I am all for living in a cleaner world.....I belive burning fosssil fuels causes cancer and many other medical problems....just don't buy into the AGW thing....

Healthy skepticism is inherent in the scientific method and to be encouraged.
Unhealthy skepticism can be a product of personal bias or refusal to recognize new findings.
But that's okay too. Better unhealthy skepticism than dogmatic devotion.
Science is not an event, it is a long process that constantly evolves. Time will always reveal more as more science is done.

Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
75. yoboi
1:18 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting FLwolverine:
#68 - yoboi, ok, thanks, now I get where you're coming from. It's apparently useless to try to persuade you the data is good and the danger is real. Too bad.

And btw, I do not support carbon credits (although they may be better than no action at all; I don't know). I do support a carbon tax with refunds back to individual taxpayers. I worry about paying taxes too, but I also worry about having a world my grandkids can live in.


Do you trust govt???? rep & dems they are all the same they do not care about the people.....only we the people can make a change....I am all for living in a cleaner world.....I belive burning fosssil fuels causes cancer and many other medical problems....just don't buy into the AGW thing....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
74. georgevandenberghe
1:16 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
In the DC area my marker of a very warm fall is whether I can get sweetcorn planted August 1 to mature before frost. It usually doesn't make it whereas July 24 planted corn is reliable. At that time of year one must use late varieties because corn is sensitive to daylength and early varieties tassel when only two feet tall in the short mid September days and I don't count a 2" ear on a knee high plant as "sweetcorn"
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1828
73. Naga5000
1:12 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:



I agree it's loaded dice you are using.....when rolled it will be what you want it to be......and using such tactics is offensive and insulting to me....


Sorry, you have never provided evidence to back up any statement you have made and have plagiarised multiple times. Maybe this isn't the right forum to spin propaganda in.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
72. FLwolverine
1:12 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
#68 - yoboi, ok, thanks, now I get where you're coming from. It's apparently useless to try to persuade you the data is good and the danger is real. Too bad.

And btw, I do not support carbon credits (although they may be better than no action at all; I don't know). I do support a carbon tax with refunds back to individual taxpayers. I worry about paying taxes too, but I also worry about having a world my grandkids can live in.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2383
71. zampaz
1:12 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan (#60):
I agree. But I'm curious how you reconcile a statement like that with one such as this:The thing is, as most any honest climatologist will tell you, there's nothing remotely "usual" about what we've been seeing. The planet is warming rapidly--the air, the land, the oceans. And all that extra energy means extreme weather events happening with increasing frequency and severity. When the "statistical outliers"--the 500-year floods, the never-before-seen heat, the prolonged profound droughts, the massive uncontrollable fires, deep, historical cold snaps--the term "usual" takes on new meaning...

A partial comment meant as a joke to Dakster and taken out of context is fair game I suppose.

--------------------------
1872. zampaz 4:17 AM EDT on June 24, 2013 3

Quoting Dakster:
How is everything going this morning in the world?


Hey Dak!
Things in the world are mostly average with the usual statistical outliers I would say ;)
-z
Trust me; I'm an ex-spurt.

-------------------------
However, I'll stand by what I've said as the events mentioned are indeed statistical outliers...as Extreme Weather Events are defined to be outliers.

Extreme weather includes weather phenomena that are at the extremes of the historical distribution, especially severe or unseasonal...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_event

Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
70. yoboi
1:09 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Naga5000:


He is pointing out an extremely unusual weather event taking place which we can expect to see more of as we continue to load the dice. You suggestion is offensive and insulting.



I agree it's loaded dice you are using.....when rolled it will be what you want it to be......and using such tactics is offensive and insulting to me....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
69. Naga5000
1:06 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:



It's all a scam.....just another way to push more taxes on the working man with a carbon tax....I can't understand how you can support carbon credits....it allows people with money to buy there way out of doing something bad.....that's like if you cheat on your spouse.....it's ok i bought cheat credits so it's a wash....using tricky data sets....saying it's trapped heat after your prediction is wrong....thats not science it's BS.....


Back up your statements with verifiable evidence, please.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
68. yoboi
1:04 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting FLwolverine:
Yoboi - you're back! I'm still waiting to hear your "truth". And don't start prattling about getting banned: you can post your own blog or you can send me a WU mail. Come on, man! Zampaz offered to talk to you; so did I. You kept wriggling out of it. Time to put up or shut up.



It's all a scam.....just another way to push more taxes on the working man with a carbon tax....I can't understand how you can support carbon credits....it allows people with money to buy there way out of doing something bad.....that's like if you cheat on your spouse.....it's ok i bought cheat credits so it's a wash....using tricky data sets....saying it's trapped heat after your prediction is wrong....thats not science it's BS.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
67. FLwolverine
1:03 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
#60 - Nea, with all due respect, I think you took zampaz's second statement somewhat out of context. I think it's ok to give a neutral or even a positive answer to someone's "howyadoin?" kind of query, before dropping the whole weight of your message on them. And I do understand (mostly) the weight of that message.

There are plenty of deniers, skeptics, and trolls to use our energy on.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2383
66. Daisyworld
1:01 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This represents Melbourne - X

This represents the planet -

[...]

Give or take an X or two.


That's an excellent visual example, Rookie!

Though, I think you're going to need a few more X's.

Metro Area of Melbourne: 8,806 km2
Area of the surface of the Earth: 510,072,000 km2

So, that would be a ratio of 1:57,923, and you've only got 10,000+ X's. You'll need about 5 times more X's for a better comparison.

Though probably better to not create too large of a comment to keep from cluttering Dr. Rood's blog...

Still, great example!
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 857
65. Naga5000
1:01 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:



How come you don't ask nea the same question???? He keeps linking the heat in alaska to agw.....Is it against the agw code to question him??????


He is pointing out an extremely unusual weather event taking place which we can expect to see more of as we continue to load the dice. You suggestion is offensive and insulting.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
64. yoboi
12:57 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Naga5000:


Stop focusing on individual records. What records are you even referring to? All time highs? Daily highs? Mean temperature over a given time period? The important thing to look at is the trend over time. There is overwhelming evidence to show an unprecedented increase in temperature over time. Focusing solely on records will not and does not give you anything close to the full picture.



How come you don't ask nea the same question???? He keeps linking the heat in alaska to agw.....Is it against the agw code to question him??????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
63. FLwolverine
12:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Yoboi - you're back! I'm still waiting to hear your "truth". And don't start prattling about getting banned: you can post your own blog or you can send me a WU mail. Come on, man! Zampaz offered to talk to you; so did I. You kept wriggling out of it. Time to put up or shut up.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2383
62. Naga5000
12:51 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:



What about all the heat records that still hold from the 1800's??????? Did C02 cause that or magic????Climate goes in cycles....you should know that.....


Stop focusing on individual records. What records are you even referring to? All time highs? Daily highs? Mean temperature over a given time period? The important thing to look at is the trend over time. There is overwhelming evidence to show an unprecedented increase in temperature over time. Focusing solely on records will not and does not give you anything close to the full picture.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
61. yoboi
12:41 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
I agree. But I'm curious how you reconcile a statement like that with one such as this:The thing is, as most any honest climatologist will tell you, there's nothing remotely "usual" about what we've been seeing. The planet is warming rapidly--the air, the land, the oceans. And all that extra energy means extreme weather events happening with increasing frequency and severity. When the "statistical outliers"--the 500-year floods, the never-before-seen heat, the prolonged profound droughts, the massive uncontrollable fires, deep, historical cold snaps--the term "usual" takes on new meaning...



What about all the heat records that still hold from the 1800's??????? Did C02 cause that or magic????Climate goes in cycles....you should know that.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
60. Neapolitan
12:26 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting zampaz:
Extreme weather, such as the record high temps in Alaska and widespread flooding in Europe, India, and Canada seem to be frequent this year iceagecoming
I agree. But I'm curious how you reconcile a statement like that with one such as this:
Quoting zampaz:
Things in the world are mostly average with the usual statistical outliers.
The thing is, as most any honest climatologist will tell you, there's nothing remotely "usual" about what we've been seeing. The planet is warming rapidly--the air, the land, the oceans. And all that extra energy means extreme weather events happening with increasing frequency and severity. When the "statistical outliers"--the 500-year floods, the never-before-seen heat, the prolonged profound droughts, the massive uncontrollable fires, deep, historical cold snaps--the term "usual" takes on new meaning...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
59. barbamz
11:55 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
Since agriculture is on topic of this blog, here is a new BBC video report about problems in Europe:

Cows to orchids: EU's farming dilemma
Planned reforms of Common Agricultural Policy under fire
24 June 2013 Last updated at 04:41 GMT Help

Members of the European Commission are due to hold talks on Monday to reform the controversial Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

The CAP began in 1962 as a way to increase food production. It costs around $75bn (48.7bn) per year in subsidies to farmers, funded by taxpayers.

The Commission wants farmers to earn some of their subsidies, for example by protecting the environment, but farm ministers are fighting back.

The BBC's environment analyst Roger Harrabin reports.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6027
58. JohnLonergan
10:47 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?

Key Points:
Despite a large increase in heat being absorbed by the Earth's climate system (oceans, land & ice), the first decade of the 21st century saw a slowdown in the rate of global surface warming (surface air temperatures).
A climate model-based study, Meehl (2011), predicted that this was largely due to anomalous heat removed from the surface ocean and instead transported down into the deep ocean. This anomalous deep ocean warming was later confirmed by observations.
This deep ocean warming in the model occurred during negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), an index of the mean state of the north and south Pacific Ocean, and was most likely in response to intensification of the wind-driven ocean circulation.
Meehl (2013) is an update to their previous work, and the authors show that accelerated warming decades are associated with the positive phase of the IPO. This is a result of a weaker wind-driven ocean circulation, when a large decrease in heat transported to the deep ocean allows the surface ocean to warm quickly, and this in turn raises global surface temperatures.
This modelling work, combined with current understanding of the wind-driven ocean circulation, implies that global surface temperaures will rise quickly when the IPO switches from the current negative phase to a positive phase.



Figure 1 - average sea surface temperature trends from the climate model simulations for a) 'hiatus' decades, i.e. decades with no warming of global mean surface temperatures, and b) 'accelerated' decades, i.e. decades with greater-than-average rises in global surface temperatures. The subtropical ocean gyres (green ellipses) are key players in the downward transport of heat. The stippling indicates areas where this trend is statistically significant. From Meehl (2013).


Even with Global Dimming, Still Lots of Warming Down Below
The way that global warming has progressed in the 21st century has probably been a great surprise to many people, no doubt a few climate scientists among them. Despite a strong increase in planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, warming of global surface temperatures has been rather muted. Surface temperatures have warmed, but at a slower rate than the last two decades of the 20th century.

Of course, the 2000's doesn't strictly qualify as a hiatus decade as defined in Meehl (2013) - where hiatus decades are described as negative global surface temperature trends - but it is, nevertheless, a suitable analogue.

Read more >>Link
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3352
57. zampaz
10:20 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
I am very interested in how folks are handling their own local weather and preparedness, regardless of your position of being skeptical about causes of climate change.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/zampaz/comment.h tml?entrynum=0

Sharing your experience may help others.
-z
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
56. zampaz
9:48 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting iceagecoming:
Melbourne struggling to stay warm
Brett Dutschke, Monday June 24, 2013 - ...

Indeed. It is winter in Australia.
Extreme weather, such as the record high temps in Alaska and widespread flooding in Europe, India, and Canada seem to be frequent this year iceagecoming.
Edit:
AussieStorm has a neat blog that shows current weather in Australia.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/AussieStorm/show .html

Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
55. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:33 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting iceagecoming:
Melbourne struggling to stay warm
Brett Dutschke, Monday June 24, 2013 - 12:38 EST

Melbourne is enduring its coldest week in 15 years and today has stayed below 10 degrees, and its lunchtime already.

It was still only 8.5 degrees at 12:30pm, keeping residents in their offices or into the warmth of cafes for lunch. This has potential to be the city's coldest day in five years. The last time a day failed to reach 10 degrees was in August 2008.

Residents are struggling to stay warm, chilled to the bone by the run of recent cold nights.

For the past seven nights the city's minimum temperature has averaged just 3.6 degrees, making it the coldest week since July 1998 when the average minimum was 3.1 degrees. The long-term average for June is 6.9 degrees.

The past five nights have been especially cold, chilling below 3.3 degrees each night and averaging just 2.4 degrees. This is the city's coldest five-night spell in 19 years. In July 1994 the five-night average was only 1.5 degrees.

It is fairly unusual to be this cold this early in winter. You have to go back to 1989 to find the last time nights were this cold for this long in June.

A near-stationary high has kept skies mostly clear and winds light to bring the long run of cold nights. Thankfully for most, days have been fairly pleasant with help from some sunshine.

Today has been a different day. Fog lingered until mid morning then thick cloud moved in, keeping the sun out and keeping the temperature below 8.5 degrees by 12:30pm. Cloud has blown in from the east with help from a low pressure system off the NSW coast.

The fog came about with the assistance of southerly winds yesterday which have added a bit of moisture to the air. This moisture was converted to fog as the temperatures plummeted to near freezing overnight under clear skies. Fog was thick enough to disrupt flights in and out of the airport.

It got as cold as -2.2 degrees at Coldstream, 0.2 degrees at Tullamarine and 2.1 degrees in the city. This was the coldest it has been in June at Tullamarine in 17 years.

Looking ahead, eastern suburbs are have the highest risk of a cold, foggy night with a few spots of rain and cloud clearing during the night. Western suburbs should be under cloud a bit longer overnight.

Any fog and frost on Tuesday morning should clear rapidly as sunshine takes over from the cloud. The city should have no trouble in warming to about 16 degrees.

- Weatherzone

http://weather.ninemsn.com.au/news/melbourne-stru ggling-to-stay-warm/24827

Link


4 Jun 2013 – In Cape Town’s city centre, where hail painted the town white, the maximum temperature on Sunday was 11°C, with the previous coldest day in June in recorded history being 13°C. (Actually, it has been a record cold month of June so far, says reader Theodore Schultz.)

Bitterly cold conditions were forecast for the Free State and Northern Cape on Tuesday and Wednesday, with minimum temperatures below freezing, reported Volksblad.

Residents trapped by heavy snow

Meanwhile, residents and visitors to Sutherland were still trapped in the town due to heavy snow.

A ferocious winter storm left suburbs across the Cape Peninsula under water and gale force winds up to 90 kilometres per hour blew the roofs off houses.

Over 30,000 people and 9000 households have been affected by heavy rains and snowfall.

Snow and freezing temperatures have also been reported in the Northern and Eastern Cape.

More cold and snow on the way

The Weather Service says very cold conditions are expected over parts of the Western, Northern and Eastern Cape and the Free State until at least Tuesday.

More snow is expected in the Western Cape and the southern parts of the Drakensberg.




Hogsback 9th June 2103


This represents Melbourne - X

This represents the planet -
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Give or take an X or two.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
54. iceagecoming
3:13 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
Melbourne struggling to stay warm
Brett Dutschke, Monday June 24, 2013 - 12:38 EST

Melbourne is enduring its coldest week in 15 years and today has stayed below 10 degrees, and its lunchtime already.

It was still only 8.5 degrees at 12:30pm, keeping residents in their offices or into the warmth of cafes for lunch. This has potential to be the city's coldest day in five years. The last time a day failed to reach 10 degrees was in August 2008.

Residents are struggling to stay warm, chilled to the bone by the run of recent cold nights.

For the past seven nights the city's minimum temperature has averaged just 3.6 degrees, making it the coldest week since July 1998 when the average minimum was 3.1 degrees. The long-term average for June is 6.9 degrees.

The past five nights have been especially cold, chilling below 3.3 degrees each night and averaging just 2.4 degrees. This is the city's coldest five-night spell in 19 years. In July 1994 the five-night average was only 1.5 degrees.

It is fairly unusual to be this cold this early in winter. You have to go back to 1989 to find the last time nights were this cold for this long in June.

A near-stationary high has kept skies mostly clear and winds light to bring the long run of cold nights. Thankfully for most, days have been fairly pleasant with help from some sunshine.

Today has been a different day. Fog lingered until mid morning then thick cloud moved in, keeping the sun out and keeping the temperature below 8.5 degrees by 12:30pm. Cloud has blown in from the east with help from a low pressure system off the NSW coast.

The fog came about with the assistance of southerly winds yesterday which have added a bit of moisture to the air. This moisture was converted to fog as the temperatures plummeted to near freezing overnight under clear skies. Fog was thick enough to disrupt flights in and out of the airport.

It got as cold as -2.2 degrees at Coldstream, 0.2 degrees at Tullamarine and 2.1 degrees in the city. This was the coldest it has been in June at Tullamarine in 17 years.

Looking ahead, eastern suburbs are have the highest risk of a cold, foggy night with a few spots of rain and cloud clearing during the night. Western suburbs should be under cloud a bit longer overnight.

Any fog and frost on Tuesday morning should clear rapidly as sunshine takes over from the cloud. The city should have no trouble in warming to about 16 degrees.

- Weatherzone

http://weather.ninemsn.com.au/news/melbourne-stru ggling-to-stay-warm/24827

Link


4 Jun 2013 – In Cape Town’s city centre, where hail painted the town white, the maximum temperature on Sunday was 11°C, with the previous coldest day in June in recorded history being 13°C. (Actually, it has been a record cold month of June so far, says reader Theodore Schultz.)

Bitterly cold conditions were forecast for the Free State and Northern Cape on Tuesday and Wednesday, with minimum temperatures below freezing, reported Volksblad.

Residents trapped by heavy snow

Meanwhile, residents and visitors to Sutherland were still trapped in the town due to heavy snow.

A ferocious winter storm left suburbs across the Cape Peninsula under water and gale force winds up to 90 kilometres per hour blew the roofs off houses.

Over 30,000 people and 9000 households have been affected by heavy rains and snowfall.

Snow and freezing temperatures have also been reported in the Northern and Eastern Cape.

More cold and snow on the way

The Weather Service says very cold conditions are expected over parts of the Western, Northern and Eastern Cape and the Free State until at least Tuesday.

More snow is expected in the Western Cape and the southern parts of the Drakensberg.




Hogsback 9th June 2103
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1072
53. zampaz
2:59 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
Perhaps you are skeptical that humans are changing the heat capacity of the atmosphere by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gasses.
The thermodynamics of what is happening to our Atmosphere is obvious if you understand conservation of energy. Science encourages rational skepticism and debate founded in verified observation.



Description of video from youtube:
Published on Jun 22, 2013

Follow ClimateState on facebook for more climate research https://www.facebook.com/ClimateState

Earlier this month, Chris Mooney moderated a terrific Climate Desk event featuring top climate researcher Jennifer Francis along with senior Weather Channel meteorologist (and former skeptic) Stu Ostro.

Watch the 30 min part with Jennifer Francis here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tY0Rd...

Ostro's observations suggest that global warming is increasing the atmosphere's thickness, leading to stronger and more persistent ridges of high pressure, which in turn are a key to temperature, rainfall, and snowfall extremes and topsy-turvy weather patterns like we've had in recent years.

Francis's scientific story is complementary. She sees the rapid warming of the Arctic weakening the northern hemisphere jet stream, and thus, once again, slowing down the weather, leaving a given pattern stuck in place for longer (making any event potentially more disruptive and extreme).

Stu Ostro is a senior meteorologist at the Weather Channel, and was a longtime climate change skeptic—until the devastating 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, when he started documenting hundreds of cases of extreme and unusual weather and the patterns associated with them, and became convinced that something is very off about the atmosphere.

For more on Ostro's work and amazing story, see:
One Meteorologist's Come-to-Jesus Moment on Climate Change (by Chris Mooney): Like many TV weathermen, Stu Ostro didn't believe in climate change—until extreme weather and scientific evidence changed his mind. Weather Channel expert on Georgia's record-smashing global-warming-type deluge.

Jennifer Francis is "a top climate researcher focused on the Arctic, whose work has drawn dramatic attention in the context of the very warm U.S. winter of 2012 (and attendant droughts and wildfires), the Russian heat wave and Pakistan floods of 2010, and other extreme weather events."

Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013...

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Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
52. FLwolverine
2:38 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
To add an appropriate horror movie touch to the scenario of rising sea levels in south Florida, remember that the Everglades are home to alligators and (unfortunately) Burmese pythons. Alligators live in freshwater and sometimes brackish environments. As saltwater encroaches into the Everglades, the alligators will move north - toward Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee River and so on - there's no place else to go. And the pythons will go where they can find food. Welcome to the future.

I think one of the saddest lines in the Rolling Stone piece was the one about the futility of trying to "restore" the Everglades, given the predicted sea level rise. It's a little like being told it's too late to make amends to someone you've harmed .....
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2383
51. JohnLonergan
2:18 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:



But how much of the very recent surge in annual atmospheric CO2 increases is anthropogenic, and how much is due to feedback processes?

The last 11 years have seen an average annual rise of 2.1 ppm. The 11 years before that, it was 1.5 ppm. That's an increase of 40% in 11 years.

Given that (until recently) about half of man made CO2 was taken up by sinks, the recent increase is way more than can be accounted for by the increase in fossil fuel consumption over the past 11 years.


It took a while, but I found this article at Planet 3.0:

Global carbon emissions and sinks since 1750
It is rather long so I excerpted the the section which is most relevant to your questions:

The future of carbon sinks




To keep things as clear as possible this analysis has only looked at cumulative emissions. The limitation of this approach is that it doesn%u2019t tell us much about the annual rates of carbon emission and sink absorption.

The high level story is pretty simple. Human kind is emitting more and more carbon dioxide, as falling land-use emissions are dwarfed by emissions from our growing use of fossil fuels. In reaction to increased emission rates and growing atmospheric concentrations both land and ocean sinks are absorbing more carbon dioxide. The Global Carbon Budget has an excellent summary of this.

Despite the fact that sinks are absorbing more CO2 the atmospheric concentration is growing at a faster rate than ever. In the decade from 2000-2009 the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide grew at an average rate of 2.0 ppm/yr, higher than any previous decade measured. To reduce this growth rate global carbon emissions need to decline. To stop concentrations growing at all would require an immediate reduction in carbon emissions by 55-60%, followed by further reductions in time.

In any future emissions scenario the reaction of our carbon sinks will play a key role in controlling atmospheric carbon concentrations. Hopefully sink absorption will continue to moderate the growth rate of atmospheric carbon, but this is not certain. Plenty of research warns of the dangerous possibilities of sinks becoming sources of emissions. These are the risks of positive feedbacks from things like drought, fire, peat-land dehydration, permafrost melt and out-gassing oceans.

Whenever we talk about tackling the carbon problem it is worth remembering the incredible job the land and ocean sinks do in slowing the growth of atmospheric carbon. This is a good reminder that reducing land use emissions and protecting carbon sinks are also part of the solution.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3352

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.