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Not Like My Father's: Farmers (1)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 3:52 AM GMT on June 10, 2013

Not Like My Father’s: Farmers (2)

I want to continue in the personal and spontaneous spirit of the last blog. I heard a lecture recently talking about climate change and farming. The speaker made the comment that the climate was changing fast enough that a family farmer could not count on the weather being the same as his father’s.

Many of the discussions I have heard about farming and climate change start with a discussion of drought and that we expect more frequent and more severe droughts in the future. Flood is also mentioned, but anecdotally at least, we think of flood as more localized than drought. We also hear about warmer and earlier springs and, hence, longer growing seasons. This potential opportunity is muted by concerns that even if there is more precipitation that a warmer climate will cause more water stress for crops. In general, the farmer will have to manage more variable and more extreme weather.

We are already in a time of rapidly changing climate. The first decade of this century was the warmest recorded, and it has been many years since the monthly average of the Earth’s surface was cooler than the 20th century average. For the northern hemisphere, this warming has led to a lengthening of the growing season, as defined by frost-free days. Farmers have already adapted by planting earlier with seed developed to take advantage of these changes or to survive despite them. The last thirty years have also been a time when the rhythm of precipitation has changed. We see more precipitation in intense storms and changes in the seasonal cycle of the availability of fresh water.

I was recently on a telecon with some scientists from the Department of Agriculture. I learned that in recent years, heavy spring rains had been inhibiting spring planting. There have been problems with getting heavy equipment into the field. The amount of time when the soil moisture is right for both holding up the equipment and providing a good seedbed is becoming shorter (news link). The likelihood of seedlings being washed out by intense rains is increasing. Curiously to me, one response to this has been to build still bigger equipment so that more can be planted in the shorter amount of time that is available.

What I described in the previous paragraph is not something that is projected for the future; it is already happening (Impacts of Climate Change on Illinois Agriculture). Farmers and manufacturers see what is happening, and they adapt. This adaptation to perceived changes is real, costly and much more concrete than the abstract threats of more drought and more flood. Another real issue that we already respond to is the warm spell in spring that causes budburst of orchards, followed by a freeze that wipes out a crop.

Events such as the wet spring, budburst and crop loss, flooding out a crop are not new to farmers. What is new is how often such events are happening. It is also new that the places where the events are occurring are changing.

I grew up in the South of the United States, which is a four-season climate. I remember throughout my childhood peach crops that were wiped out by a late frost. In fact, almost every year there was concern in some part of the South of a swath of peaches being wiped out. And that is an interesting fact of climate variability and farming: There is almost always weather-related damage some place. In a country and rich as the United States, other regions of plenty mostly balance out these places of loss. It is this balance of agricultural plenty and loss that leads some to say that when viewed as a global or national market, agriculture is resilient to climate change.

If this collective agriculture is, in fact, resilient to climate change, this assumes either 1) the future climate is, on average, like our father’s climate or 2) we effectively adapt to climate as it changes. A confidence in agricultural resilience assumes that what resilience we have built in the past transfers into the future. Even if agriculture is collectively resilient, locally there is boom and bust.

In the South, precipitation is spread out across all of the seasons. Irrigated farming is the exception, not the rule. Southerners do not worry about water being stored in snow and dribbling out to use as it melted in the spring and the summer. As I have grown older and traveled and moved, I found out that much of the world does not have four seasons with rain spread throughout the year. Much of the world has a wet season and a dry season. Many parts of the world rely on water being stored as snow on high mountains, lasting into spring and melting to be used for agriculture in the warm season.

Scientists call being able to rely on having our father’s climate “stationarity.” If the climate were stationary, then in the future the averages and the extremes would be the same. To describe stationarity, scientists often use figures that describe the statistical distribution of “climate” or perhaps more correctly of temperature and precipitation. We talk about the average temperature increasing. We talk about average precipitation increasing or decreasing, depending on the region. We often talk about the “extremes,” especially extremely hot temperatures increasing. Precipitation extremes might increase either as prolonged drought or as intense rain and snowstorms. The changes in the statistical distribution of parameters that measure climate describe the lack of stationarity.

The normal ways that we talk about extremes do not always convey the way we are feeling climate change. The seasonality, the rhythm, the ebb and flow this is changing and felt in those muddy fields that preclude farm equipment and endanger planting. The change in seasonality is felt in intense winter snowstorms, followed by winter rains and early spring causing water to run through the ditches, rivers and reservoirs and to be unavailable for summer growing. The changes in seasonality are felt in an increasing number of early budbursts followed by the killing frost. This change in seasonality is as much a change in stationarity as any change in the average and mean temperature. In fact, the change of the rhythm of seasons can occur with very little change to the statistical description of averages and extremes. It might not even seem hotter.

How to cope with a climate that is not stationary is a major challenge for agriculture (and engineering). Deep within our planning for the future is the assumption that weather will remain the same – it will be like our father’s and mother’s weather. This is no longer the case.

r

Some good references:

Impacts of Climate Change on Illinois Agriculture

Farming Success in an Uncertain Future (Cornell)

Reinventing Farming for a Changing Climate (NPR)

Farm Level Adjustments to Climate Change (USDA)

Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Multiple Risks both chapters in Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region (Dietz and Bidwell)

Barnett: Climate Change and Water and Snow Availability

Milly: Stationarity is Dead

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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


So what Seattle is doing will pretty much do absolutely nothing.


What Seattle is doing is creating a blueprint to large city carbon neutrality that will have a major impact if other places follow the lead. Its called environmental responsibility, and its something to strive for regardless of views on global warming.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 5738
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Yes, and I have a hard time believe that humans are the main contributing factor behind the warming over the last 10,000 years.


Who said humans are responsible for the last 10,000 years worth of warming? Natural processes (Milankovitch cycles, especially) controlled the show throughout the Pliocene-Pleistocene. In order to overcome them, we humans had to remove a whole lot of sequestered carbon from the Earth's crust; we're starting to see those impacts in the last several decades. You're not as clever as you seem to think you are.

Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Chicago was under a mile of ice some 20,000 years ago, now it's not...therefore AGW is real.


See above. If you want anyone to ever take you seriously, you should probably take some time and figure out what we're actually arguing. These really bad strawman arguments are really taking a toll on that poor guy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Naga5000:


I'll just leave this here Link. Follow the links also. Not to mention a simple google search would have given you this information.




It's about moving in the right direction of responsibility at the city level.


So what Seattle is doing will pretty much do absolutely nothing.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting ScottLincoln:

There are numerous papers that have documented this. Google Scholar is your friend.
Have you heard of the climate extremes index?
Have you made an effort to use the tools frequently sourced to find the answer to your question before presenting it rhetorically?


So we know what weather is normal, even though we've been keeping records for only 180 years? Sure we have ice core records for temperature and CO2, but can anyone accurately tell me how many hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires there were in 1432?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting no1der:
*smacks forehead* Thanks, man, I missed that one in my orals... :-)
And 150 years ago, the Northwest Passage... wasn't. Now it's blue water every summer.
Next irrelevant detail, please?




Chicago was under a mile of ice some 20,000 years ago, now it's not...therefore AGW is real.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting FLwolverine:
Why not quit the sniping (unless you're just having too much fun) and discuss what your real objections to climate change, global warming, AGW, are? I think you once said something like "I agree that climate is changing but I don't like all the hype and fear-mongering." That may not be what you said -- please correct me if I remembered that wrong But in any event, perhaps we could talk about that?

(Although it was pretty interesting to read about ladies driving all over the world in 1927; I wonder if they wrote books about their adventures)


Yes, and I have a hard time believe that humans are the main contributing factor behind the warming over the last 10,000 years.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Around The Arctic June 2013

The Arctic is currently primed for rapid and extensive ice loss, unless we see some very unusual weather conditions this Summer.

The state of the ice can be seen in the following series of satellite images from NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System - EOSDIS. EOSDIS produces near real-time data and makes images such as the Arctic mosaic and the Near Real Time (Orbit Swath) Images available on the web.

The Arctic mosaic is made up of panels arranged as six rows and six columns. Any panel can be viewed in higher resolution by clicking on it. In single panel view, other resolutions are available up to 250 meters per pixel.

Using images from the Arctic mosaic since June 10 2013 - except where clearly noted - I have compiled a 'June 2013 tour around the Arctic'. The 'itinerary' is marked on the image below.



Arctic Mosaic, annotated.

A - Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea


Arctic Mosaic Bering Straits June 2013

Click here to take the full tour, it's well worth it.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Where is your evidence that these extreme weather events are increasing in frequency?

There are numerous papers that have documented this. Google Scholar is your friend.
Have you heard of the climate extremes index?
Have you made an effort to use the tools frequently sourced to find the answer to your question before presenting it rhetorically?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3507
Obama pledges to ‘do more’ on climate change

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama is planning a major push using executive powers to tackle the pollution blamed for global warming in an effort to make good on promises he made at the start of his second term.

Obama's energy and climate adviser, Heather Zichal, said Wednesday the plan would boost energy efficiency of appliances and buildings, expand renewable energy and use the Environmental Protection Agency's authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate heat-trapping pollution from coal-fired power plants.

The plan is expected to be unveiled in coming weeks.

The Obama administration has been under increasing pressure from environmental groups and lawmakers from states harmed by Superstorm Sandy to cut pollution existing power plants, the largest source of climate-altering pollution. Obama has already proposed controls on new power plants' greenhouse gases.



Huffingtonpost.com


RawStory.com (AFP)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 1085
1156. no1der
*smacks forehead* Thanks, man, I missed that one in my orals... :-)
And 150 years ago, the Northwest Passage... wasn't. Now it's blue water every summer.
Next irrelevant detail, please?

Quoting WPBHurricane05:
(data from less than 150 years ago...Earth is much older), 

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


And how much impact will this have on reducing temperatures??
Why not quit the sniping (unless you're just having too much fun) and discuss what your real objections to climate change, global warming, AGW, are? I think you once said something like "I agree that climate is changing but I don't like all the hype and fear-mongering." That may not be what you said -- please correct me if I remembered that wrong But in any event, perhaps we could talk about that?

(Although it was pretty interesting to read about ladies driving all over the world in 1927; I wonder if they wrote books about their adventures)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Where is your evidence that these extreme weather events are increasing in frequency?


I'll just leave this here Link. Follow the links also. Not to mention a simple google search would have given you this information.


Quoting WPBHurricane05:


And how much impact will this have on reducing temperatures??


It's about moving in the right direction of responsibility at the city level.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 5738
1152. barbamz
Global warming will make India's monsoon unpredictable: World Bank
Economic Times: by PTI | 19 Jun, 2013, 07.48PM IST

Though I see that John already has posted the World Bank Report, here are some details which unfortunately match very well with the present desaster in India/Nepal:

India monsoon floods leave 160 dead
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JohnLonergan:
Seattle Adopts Bold Climate Action Plan, Aims To Be Carbon Neutral By 2050

The Seattle City Council unanimously passed a far-reaching Climate Action Plan Monday, with the ultimate goal of reaching zero net emissions by 2050.
The ambitious plan, crafted by city officials and community members, provides a long-term vision for reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions while building vibrant, prosperous communities.
Specifically, the plan focuses on three areas where Seattle can benefit the most from improvements: transportation and land use, building energy and solid waste.
“We can do something meaningful, not just for the planet, but also to create the city we want to live in, one that is safer to walk and bike and has cleaner air and water,” said city councilman Mike O’Brien.

Read more >>


And how much impact will this have on reducing temperatures??
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Perhaps you would like to tell us how you came across this obscure newspaper article? Was it from here - The unknown comic, Steven Goddard?

Do you have anything else that would back up the details of this article?

Let us take a closer look at what the article claims about the temperatures they encountered, "To their continued astonishment the temperature was never less than 90 degrees in the shade." Where is it noted that any temperature samplings were made and by what methods? Using the last country listed in their travels, Finland, what are the record temps for this region? All-time high temperature recorded in Finland.

As far as we know, you could be Steven Goddard. No one seems to know who this person is.


I wish I could be as funny as Steven Goddard.

If we're going to play the "all time record high" (of course, this is only looking at data from less than 150 years ago...Earth is much older), Alaska's all time high was recorded in 1915. http://www.arh.noaa.gov/docs/AKWXfacts.pdf
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Naga5000:


Yes, single weather events of extreme weather occur. Global warming makes them more likely to occur (see: loaded dice analogy). What is your point?


Where is your evidence that these extreme weather events are increasing in frequency?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:




As far as we know, you could be Steven Goddard. No one seems to know who this person is.


But we all know what he is.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
Climate Science Deniers Aren’t The Only Ones Using The Tobacco Industry Playbook

A stunning expose by 100Reporters and Environmental Health News underscores how far some companies will go to squelch a scientific review of the impact of their products.
Award-winning reporter Clare Howard, now with the investigative journalism nonprofit, “100Reporters,” has a must-read piece on the length one company went to in order to discredit critics:
To protect profits threatened by a lawsuit over its controversial herbicide atrazine, Syngenta Crop Protection launched an aggressive multi-million dollar campaign that included hiring a detective agency to investigate scientists on a federal advisory panel, looking into the personal life of a judge and commissioning a psychological profile of a leading scientist critical of atrazine.
The Switzerland-based pesticide manufacturer also routinely paid “third-party allies” to appear to be independent supporters, and kept a list of 130 people and groups it could recruit as experts without disclosing ties to the company.
Recently unsealed court documents reveal a corporate strategy to discredit critics and to strip plaintiffs from the class-action case. The company specifically targeted one of atrazine’s fiercest and most outspoken critics, Tyrone Hayes of the University of California, Berkeley, whose research suggests that atrazine feminizes male frogs.
The campaign is spelled out in hundreds of pages of memos, invoices and other documents from Illinois’ Madison County Circuit Court, that were initially sealed as part of a 2004 lawsuit filed by Holiday Shores Sanitary District. The new documents, along with an earlier tranche released in late 2011, open a window on the company’s strategy to defeat a lawsuit that, it maintained, could have effectively ended sales of atrazine in the United States.

Of course, it’s not like there is an infinite supply of anti-science guns for hire. So we see again some of the usual suspects. Climate Progress has written in the past about how “Steve Milloy, Anti-Science Tobacco Apologist, Now Denies Coal Plant Pollution Kills People.”

Howard details his involvement with Atrazine:

Steven Milloy, publisher of junkscience.com and president of Citizens for the Integrity of Science, is also in Syngenta’s Supportive Third Party Stakeholders Database.
In a Dec. 3, 2004, email to Syngenta, Milloy requests a grant of $15,000 for the nonprofit Free Enterprise Education Institute for an atrazine stewardship cost-benefit analysis project.
In a letter dated Aug. 6, 2008, Milloy requests a $25,000 grant for the nonprofit Free Enterprise Project of the National Center for Public Policy Research. In an email on that date, he writes, “send the check to me as usual and I’ll take care of it.”
While Op-Eds aim to shape public opinion, economic and cost-benefit analyses were also important, because EPA rulings on pesticide use are based on health, environmental and economic effects.


Junk science, indeed.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
Seattle Adopts Bold Climate Action Plan, Aims To Be Carbon Neutral By 2050

The Seattle City Council unanimously passed a far-reaching Climate Action Plan Monday, with the ultimate goal of reaching zero net emissions by 2050.
The ambitious plan, crafted by city officials and community members, provides a long-term vision for reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions while building vibrant, prosperous communities.
Specifically, the plan focuses on three areas where Seattle can benefit the most from improvements: transportation and land use, building energy and solid waste.
“We can do something meaningful, not just for the planet, but also to create the city we want to live in, one that is safer to walk and bike and has cleaner air and water,” said city councilman Mike O’Brien.

Read more >>
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
Study of Siberian cave reveals permafrost could thaw within decades

Areas of permafrost could start to thaw within decades, freeing long-stored greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, according to a study released on Wednesday that measured ancient stalagmites in a Siberian cave.

Continuous permafrost — land that is frozen all year round — starts to thaw when temperatures rise around 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, its authors said.

Earth has already warmed by around 0.8 C (1.4 F) since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century, and on current trends, the threshold could be reached “within 10-30 years,” they said.

“An urgent global effort (in) reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is required,” they warned.

A team led by Gideon Henderson at Oxford University’s Department of Earth Sciences looked at speleothems — stalagmites and stalactites — at Ledyanaya Lenskya cave near Lensk, eastern Siberia.

Caves themselves are usually at about the same temperature as the mean average air temperature at the surface.

Thus when the surface temperature drops below zero C, the ground freezes and there is no water seepage to promote the growth of speleothems.

As a result, speleothems in permafrost regions are faithful recorders of when their region was frozen and when it was above freezing, with traces of uranium and lead isotopes providing the pointers in time as to when these periods occurred.



RawStory.com (AFP)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 1085
Australian blogger uknowispeaksense posts today on some of Steve Goddard's latest idiocy:

"Ignoring inconvenient Arctic data

I have chosen the title of this post because I want to highlight the irony displayed by Steve Goddard over at his blog, the incorrectly named “Real Science”. His latest post is called “Ignoring inconvenient arctic data”. Without going into too much detail, Steve asserts that climate scientists who present graphs of arctic sea ice extent data from satellites are cherry picking the year 1979 as the starting point because it was a year of high Arctic ice extent when satellite data goes back earlier than that. Specifically, he points to this graph which appears in IPCC WG1…




Indeed it would appear that there is available satellite data for pre-1979 and it even shows a dramatically low sea ice extent for 1974. Shame you climate scientists shame! But hang on, why just stop there? Let’s put 1974 into perspective. Why not use all the available data hey Steve? How about this one?




Steve’s preferred year of 1974 in this data set is 1 standard deviation from the 1968-1996 mean. The running mean in that year was somewhere around 0.4 standard deviations above the mean. By 2010, the decline in sea ice extent was somewhere between 2 and 3 standard deviations BELOW the mean. Thanks for the tip on using all of the available data Steve. But let’s not stop there. [...]"

uknowispeaksense shows more more that shows Goddard wrong and concludes his article, writing:

So Steve, thanks for the tip about using all available data. What a shame you can’t take your own advice. I have to thank you though because your lack of self-awareness is off the scale and since I have grown quite fond of facepalming, you have given me an endless resource of inspiration.

Now, let’s get to the other point Steve is trying to make, and that is that it isn’t ok to cherrypick. He refers to it as dodgy. I wonder then how he feels about these blog entries. Here is a selection of posts that come from his blog. Not only do they have cherrypicked years but cherrypicked places as well…oh dear!
No warming since Kyoto was rejected fifteen years ago
No warming in Antarctica since the start of satellite records
No warming in Colorado since 1850.
No warming in Darwin since 1885
No warming in san Francisco since 1850
USHCN thermometer data shows no US warming since the year 1900
No northern hemisphere warming since the 1930s
No warming in Iowa since CO2 was 310 ppm


How anyone can take this clown seriously is beyond me. His hypocrisy is exceeded only by his lack of self-awareness. Outstandingly funny stuff. Take a bow Steve Goddard, you are truly hysterical. Idiot.


I've also included a couple of the best comments;

wottsupwiththatblog

The only time I’ve actually really read anything from Steve Goddard was a post claiming that the reason Venus was so hot was because of the high pressure. This was such a blatant misuse of the equation-of-state of a gas, that I’ve never really read anything of his since. Seems like that was a wise decision.

Reply
uknowispeaksense

No doubt a wise decision but when I was teaching “Understanding Science” at my university last year, I found him to be a useful source for my students to see what science is not. I know that a large number of my former students follow my blog so every now and then I return to him to reinforce my previous lessons. He’s also a helpful resource for any lurkers here to see what denial really looks like.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
Climate change to hurt the poorest – World Bank

From The World Bank
A new climate report looks at likely impacts of present day, 2°C, and 4°C warming across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and South East Asia.
It describes the risks to agriculture and livelihood security in Sub-Saharan Africa; the rise in sea-level, loss of coral reefs and devastation to coastal areas likely in South East Asia; and the fluctuating water resources in South Asia.
Turn Down the Heat warns that poor communities will be the most vulnerable to climate change.
As the coastal cities of Africa and Asia expand, many of their poorest residents are being pushed to the edges of livable land and into the most dangerous zones for climate change. Their informal settlements cling to riverbanks and cluster in low-lying areas with poor drainage, few public services, and no protection from storm surges, sea-level rise, and flooding.

These communities – the poor in coastal cities and on low-lying islands – are among the world’s most vulnerable to climate change and the least able to marshal the resources to adapt, a new report finds. They face a world where climate change will increasingly threaten the food supplies of Sub-Saharan Africa and the farm fields and water resources of South Asia and South East Asia within the next three decades, while extreme weather puts their homes and lives at risk.

A new scientific report commissioned by the World Bank and released on June 19 explores the risks to lives and livelihoods in these three highly vulnerable regions. Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience (Read it in Issuu, Scribd, Open Knowledge Repository) takes the climate discussion to the next level, building on a 2012 World Bank report that concluded from a global perspective that without a clear mitigation strategy and effort, the world is headed for average temperatures 4 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times by the end of this century.

Read on....
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
From the METOffice(UK):

Guest blog – How the Atlantic may influence wet summers

This morning there has been a lot of media coverage following a workshop held here at the Met Office HQ in Exeter on a recent run of unusual seasons in the UK.

Much of this centred around recent research by the University of Reading, presented at the workshop yesterday, which suggested Atlantic ocean cycles – specifically one known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) – can have an influence on UK summer weather.

Here Professor Rowan Sutton, from the University of Reading, explains that research in a bit more detail:



“Last year, Buwen Dong and I at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science published a paper in Nature Geoscience about the link between slow changes in the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean and weather patterns.

In particular, we presented evidence of a link between warm surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and a higher frequency of wet summers in the UK and Northern Europe.

This research built on earlier research I published with another colleague, Dan Hodson, in Science in 2005 and an important study by Jeff Knight and colleagues at the Met Office, which was published in 2006.

In our 2012 paper we showed that a rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean which occurred in the 1990s coincided with a shift to wetter summers in the UK and northern Europe and hotter, drier summers around the Mediterranean. The pattern identified matched that of summer 2012, when the UK had the wettest summer in 100 years.

Observational records show that the surface temperature of the North Atlantic has swung slowly between warmer and cooler conditions, and the present warm phase has a similar pattern to warm conditions that persisted throughout the 1930s, 40s and 50s. During the 1960s, 70s and 80s cooler conditions prevailed.

Computer simulations suggest that these changes in ocean temperature affect the atmosphere above. Warmth in the North Atlantic causes a trough of low pressure over western Europe in summer and steers rain-bearing weather systems into the UK.

An important question of interest to many people is how long will the current pattern of wet summers in northern Europe persist? This is a key research question and we don’t yet have precise answers.

In our 2012 paper we stated: “Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm.”

How long might this be? There is strong evidence linking the swings in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature to the “overturning” or “thermohaline” circulation of the Atlantic.

This circulation appears to have intensified in the 1990s. Following such a strengthening, a subsequent weakening is expected, as various feedbacks exert their influence.

For example, the surface warm waters transported northward by the overturning circulation have relatively low density which inhibits their tendency to sink, and acts to slow the circulation. Such a slowing cools the North Atlantic.

The time scales involved are in the range between a few years and a decade or two. Progress in Decadal Forecasting, such as the pioneering work at the Met Office, and critical observations such as from the NERC-funded “RAPID” array, should help us to reduce this large range of uncertainty, but it is a challenging problem and advances may take some years.”
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
Quoting yoboi:



I wonder what the C02 level was in 1953????


I wonder how many times you will try to equate weather to climate and keep harping on false premises. Hmm....
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 5738
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Perhaps you would like to tell us how you came across this obscure newspaper article? Was it from here - The unknown comic, Steven Goddard?
Excuse me, guys, I'll be back later. I just spent a few minutes reading Goddard's blog and the comments, and I feel a great need for a hot shower (with disinfectant).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
WOMEN MOTORISTS


Perhaps you would like to tell us how you came across this obscure newspaper article? Was it from here - The unknown comic, Steven Goddard?

Do you have anything else that would back up the details of this article?

Let us take a closer look at what the article claims about the temperatures they encountered, "To their continued astonishment the temperature was never less than 90 degrees in the shade." Where is it noted that any temperature samplings were made and by what methods? Using the last country listed in their travels, Finland, what are the record temps for this region? All-time high temperature recorded in Finland.

As far as we know, you could be Steven Goddard. No one seems to know who this person is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JohnLonergan:
Looks like CT area is over the cliff.
Another 100,000+ sq. km drop.

With as much break-up as we've observed in the last few weeks, I really think we're going to see an acceleration in the drop soon. People have pointed out that the rate of fall has been slower than the big melt years, at least thus far, but that's for 15% ice concentration. Areas that are breaking up all the way to the north pole are still going to be higher than 15% concentration at first, although the water in-between the ice is going to absorb the solar energy much faster than before and accelerate the melt.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3507
Quoting ScottLincoln:

But you don't understand... this anecdote of one area at one time at this one point in the past with limited metadata on the measurements disproves everything!!!


Thanks, Scott. I knew we had it all wrong! I am thankful we finally got some solid scientific evidence disproving years of scientific research...
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 5738
Quoting Naga5000:


Yes, single weather events of extreme weather occur. Global warming makes them more likely to occur (see: loaded dice analogy). What is your point?

But you don't understand... this anecdote of one area at one time at this one point in the past with limited metadata on the measurements disproves everything!!!
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3507
Contribution of Particulate Matter from Air Pollution to Forest Decline

June 19, 2013 — Air pollution is related to forest decline and also appears to attack the protecting wax on tree leaves and needles. Bonn University scientists have now discovered a responsible mechanism: particulate matter salt compounds that become deliquescent because of humidity and form a wick-like structure that removes water from leaves and promotes dehydration. These results are published in "Environmental Pollution."

Nature conservationists call it "lingering illness," and the latest report on the North-Rhine Westphalian forest conditions confirms ongoing damage. Bonn University scientists have now shown that salt deposits on leaves may decrease the drought tolerance of trees, thereby contributing to forest decline. "Our study reveals that so-called wax degradation on pine needles may develop from deposited particulate matter," says Dr. Jürgen Burkhardt from the Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation. Wax helps to protect leaves and needles from water loss.

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Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
1131. Patrap
The point is to obfuscate.

Verb

Render obscure, unclear, or unintelligible.
Bewilder (someone).
Synonyms
darken - obscure - confuse - cloud - dim - becloud
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137210
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
September 30, 1927

WOMEN MOTORISTS
Arctic and Australian Trips


To drive by the light of the mid
night sun, to race for lifo through
forest fires caused by storm light
ning, to be 15 hours at a time at
the wheel, and to be caught in an
Arctic heat wave and tormented by
mosquitoes in what Is known to us
as the land of eternal snows, were
among the recent experiences of an
intrepid English wom an, Mrs. Victor
Bruce, who accompanied her husband
and a companion in a 0000 motor tour
through the Arctic zone.

Through Belgium, Holland, Germany,
Denmark, Lapland, and Finland, the
motor party journeyed to 270 miles
north of the Arctic Circle, prepared
for freezing weather. To their con
tinued astonishment the temperature
was less than 90 degrees in
the shade.


The intedtion was to reach the Arctic
Ocean, but 40 miles of marsh
country on the coast prevented this.
An average of 210 miles a day was
made on the journey, which was ar
duous in the extreme, ahd at one time
the car had an actual race with death
among the forest fires in Sweden over
terrible roads.


Yes, single weather events of extreme weather occur. Global warming makes them more likely to occur (see: loaded dice analogy). What is your point?
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 5738
Edited to correct html error' reposted @1132
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
September 30, 1927

WOMEN MOTORISTS
Arctic and Australian Trips


To drive by the light of the mid
night sun, to race for lifo through
forest fires caused by storm light
ning, to be 15 hours at a time at
the wheel, and to be caught in an
Arctic heat wave and tormented by
mosquitoes in what Is known to us
as the land of eternal snows, were
among the recent experiences of an
intrepid English wom an, Mrs. Victor
Bruce, who accompanied her husband
and a companion in a 0000 motor tour
through the Arctic zone.

Through Belgium, Holland, Germany,
Denmark, Lapland, and Finland, the
motor party journeyed to 270 miles
north of the Arctic Circle, prepared
for freezing weather. To their con
tinued astonishment the temperature
was less than 90 degrees in
the shade.


The intedtion was to reach the Arctic
Ocean, but 40 miles of marsh
country on the coast prevented this.
An average of 210 miles a day was
made on the journey, which was ar
duous in the extreme, ahd at one time
the car had an actual race with death
among the forest fires in Sweden over
terrible roads.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Looks like CT area is over the cliff.
Another 100,000+ sq. km drop.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
Small global warming rise would have ‘alarming’ impact: World Bank

Much of Bangkok could flood within the next two decades if global warming stays on its current trajectory, as sea levels rise and cyclones intensify, the World Bank said in a new report on Wednesday.

The flooding of 40 percent of the Thai capital was just one of dozens of negative effects the Washington-based World Bank warned would happen if the world grew warmer by just 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), which it said is likely to occur in the next 20 to 30 years under a “business-as-usual” scenario.

Under World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, the global development lender has launched a more aggressive stance to spur action on climate change. Kim has said it is impossible to tackle poverty without dealing with the effects of a warmer world.

Crops such as wheat, rice and maize have a hard time adapting to a warmer climate, potentially leaving 25 to 90 percent of the population in sub-Saharan Africa undernourished by the 2050s, according to the report’s projections.

Heat extremes will increase by several times in South Asia, with droughts likely to hit north-western India, Pakistan and Afghanistan and reduce available drinking water.



continued at RawStory.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 1085

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
U.S. Faces a Week of Extreme Weather and Signs of Climate Action

Another season of extreme weather events is upon us. A severe storm, with winds up to 70 miles per hour, whipped its way from Illinois to Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, Colorado is experiencing one of its worst wildfires in history—the Black Forest Fire has burned 15,700 acres, displaced more than 38,000 people, and impacted 13,000 homes. These events are reminders of what the world will look like as our climate system moves into increasingly dangerous and unfamiliar territory.

This week also brought a trifecta of events with significant implications for climate change.

The latest report from the International Energy Agency revealed that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions hit an all-time high in 2012. These emissions are driving up global temperatures and increasing climate instability. The IEA concludes that it’s not too late to change course, but the window for action is closing rapidly.

Our current response to climate change is grossly inadequate. Fortunately, there are some signs that the winds are starting to change.

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Is it too Late to Combat Climate Change?

Climate change impacts are already being felt in the United States and around the world. The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report confirms that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions hit an all-time high last year.

Is it time to give up on reducing emissions? Absolutely not.

Better to Pursue Climate Action Now

While things may look bad today, unchecked global warming will exponentially increase the human and economic toll of responding to a permanently altered planet. A recent report from the World Bank outlines the devastating effects of a global temperature rise of 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-Industrial levels: flooding of coastal cities, risks to food production, unprecedented heat waves, increased frequency of killer storms, and more. This is not the future that we want to leave our children and grandchildren. Nor can we simply adapt to this future – even if we wanted to.

The IEA makes it clear that acting now will be less costly than waiting until later on. We should be moving toward a low-carbon future, investing in low-carbon energy systems, and preparing our infrastructure for oncoming climate impacts. According to the IEA, delaying action would increase the costs by having to retrofit energy sources and risking their becoming obsolete. The IEA lays out four sensible measures that countries can undertake to curb growth in GHG emissions by 2020—and which come at no net economic cost.

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Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4517
1121. zampaz
Quoting zampaz:


Hello yoboi;
I seek a common level of understanding in communicating with you yoboi.
Your response to the question:
"Are you aware of changes in Arctic sea ice and if so what is your opinion regarding the effect of the loss of Arctic sea ice on the jet stream?"
was;
"when its cold in the usa it dipps down south, when it's warm it retreats back north..... Thats from my observation......", which indicates that the original compound question was not fully understood yoboi. Based upon the response the original compound question, the original question was simplified to:
"Could you share your personal feelings, thoughts and opinions about changes in Arctic sea ice yoboi?"

I hope we can talk about climate again when you are feeling better yoboi.

Edit:
My response to yoboi was rude and sarcastic.
I apologize yoboi for being rude.










Re: 1114

My response to yoboi was rude and sarcastic.
I apologize yoboi for my rude response.

-z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1120. zampaz
Food for thought.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1119. Patrap


Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?


Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.


The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.


Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.


Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.

Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.



Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.




Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137210
1117. zampaz
Quoting allahgore:



I think we could be better prepared. I have noticed extreme weather events, for example in alaska very cold then very hot in a short time it is like they had no spring. I think weather in the artic controls the jet stream and the jet stream produces engergy for storms. How do we get better prepared? that is a good questions with so many people living near the coast, I have really never thought about it give me a few days to think about it and I will give you an answer.

Thank you for your response allahgore.
Perhaps we can work together on the issues presented by preparing for extreme weather events.
If you (or others) would be interested in working together towards preparedness solutions, I will create a blog with the topic; "Preparing for Extreme Weather Events."
If you could find the time would you be interested in working towards preparedness solutions with me allahgore?
If you aren't able to find the time to examine these issues I will look forward to seeing your thoughts on preparedness in wundermail or in a post from you in Dr. Roods blog :)
-z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1116. Patrap
You should see what asbestos does to Lungs after 30 years..




All this comes from Human thought, all around us is what human thought has created.
But in that process we have set loose a new Climate that is warming at a rate faster than any in History. We know the forcings,..we know the drivers.

But things are being loved and people used, when its supposed to be the other way around.

Until the driving force of the Planet, becomes something other than the accumulation of wealth and Nations,

Do not expect anything to change until the Climate well, demands it.

Adaptation will be key, but Calamity can wipe out Whole Species here.

It's happened before.







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137210

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Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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