Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

The Role of Short Timers
Posted by: Dr. Ricky Rood, 2:03 AM GMT on January 18, 2013 +23
The Role of Short Timers

The previous entry described how I start to think about time and addressing the challenges of climate change. My focus was on generational time; that is, the amount of time it takes for one generation to replace the last generation. My message from that was not, “just wait,” but it is important to recognize that the fundamental changes in our behavior and energy systems will require some time.

This entry I will describe the issues that make climate change a problem in the here and now. In the following figure I highlight several items that are important in the short term. For the purpose of this article the short term is less than 10 years.



Figure 1: Thinking about time and climate change: What is important in the short-term?

1) Accumulation of Carbon Dioxide: From a climate scientist’s perspective the traditional short time issue is the “stabilization” of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That is, after we get all of this figured out, what is the amount of carbon dioxide that we have in the atmosphere? I refer back to several blogs I have written on stabilization. The basic idea is that the carbon dioxide we release from fossil fuels stays with us for a very long time; it does not really go away. A number that I quote in one of those blogs is that every year we emit like we are emitting now, we will be encumbered with about nine additional parts per million of carbon dioxide. To put this in perspective, prior to the industrial revolution we had about 280 parts per million and now we have about 400 parts per million. Therefore, actions we take now have consequences on lengths of times that we more commonly associate with geology.

2) Impacts of Extreme Events: We live in a climate that is warming rapidly. The weather is changing in some basic measures, such as, extreme precipitation, the speed at which storms move, the size of storms, the paths they follow, etc. At the same time that the weather changes, sea level is rising; snow and ice are melting. Therefore, we see larger impacts of storms like Superstorm Sandy. (see Cynthia Rosenzweig Interview) In Alaska, we see enormous erosion as shores that were protected by sea ice are left unprotected as the ice melts. We need to anticipate these changes in the impacts of extreme events that come from the fact that the weather is working in a world where many things are changing. This makes sense for preparedness, and it provides us case studies to help us think about the future.

3. Fast Ecosystem Changes: I sat in a meeting this week where people were thinking about how a warming climate and changing weather patterns would impact forests. Extreme events have huge impacts on forests through drought, flooding, fire, and salt-water storm surges. We used to imagine these forests “coming back” in the same climate. But now we have to think about the forests coming back with warmer temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and with new characteristics of extreme weather, for example, an extremely warm spring. Aside from changes to these basic environmental parameters, there are new opportunities for invasive species and disease. The forests might not even come back as forests. For example, with forests currently at the boundary of the prairie, like in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the forest is likely to return as savanna. (see the amazing work of Lee Frelich, for example Climate Change, Invasive, Species and Forests). I don’t say this in the spirit that we will avoid this if we do something now, but that we need to plan now – to borrow a phrase, to plan for the best savanna possible, rather than a scrub land of invasive species.

4. Election Time Scales: In the United States at the federal level, this is two, four, and six years – thereby, effectively two years. Through policy shifts we see expression of issues of energy security and economy. We see amplification of the political interests that are backed by dollars. We see the impact of tax arguments and tax policy – the impact of research and development budgets to promote and to inhibit technology development. At the city and state level, we see, often, the more stable policy development that reflect local and regional values. The decisions we make on these two-year cycles have enormous consequences for how we deal with global, long-term problems. (See arcane note at the end.)

The decisions that we make each and every day influence our long-term response to climate change. The impact varies from how warm it will ultimately be, to how we anticipate and respond to the disruptions of weather and climate, to how we invest in the technologies and opportunities that would allow us to address, more quickly, climate change. My goal is recognize the role of all of these different factors that work at different spans of time, and how do we change the world so that things converge in an accelerated way to address climate change and sustainability.


r

Rood Interview: Saga of Climate Change


Arcane Note: I grew up in the South in a family that was more politically interested than most. I saw the emergence and growth of, for example, Regent University. I remember at the time hearing of Pat Robertson’s vision of training what now has become their motto of “Christian Leadership to Change the World.” I listened to the idea of training journalists, lawyers, educated citizens who would get elected to town councils, school boards, mayors, state legislatures, governors, and ultimately, populating the federal government in both elected and appointed positions. I remember as a much younger man thinking, “That’s a really good strategy.” My personal opinion is that this has one of the most consequential movements in U.S. politics in my life. To add a little substance to my experience here are some articles you might find interesting:

Student Body Right, 2005, C. Hayes
Who’s the Boss, 2007, D. Lithwick
Pat, Bob and Regent University, 2009

My point: With a little organization, consideration of the short-term, and a generation of time, we can make changes that are more consequential than just letting things happen.


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Reader Comments
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201. nymore 6:24 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
You're obviously just trolling as usual, so allow me to toss you a few tidbits so you don't feel your efforts were wasted:

--Fox News Climate Coverage 93% Wrong, Report Finds
--Fox News Distorts Climate Science; In Other News, the Pope Is Catholic
--Fox News Misleads Viewers on Climate Change
--Fox News Hypes Fringe Petition Calling Global Warming A "Hoax"
--SHOCKER: Fox News Misleads Audience on Climate Change


Your first link uses an opinion piece as an actual study. The primetime shows on Fox are opinion based and not actual news

Your next link talks about opinion based programs on Fox as if they are actual news broadcasts. The article itself is in the opinion section

Third link same thing uses a report that itself is an opinion piece. Look at back number one

Fourth one Media Matters, honestly you link to them, they are as unbiased as Drudge. I did not even waste my time

Fifth Mother Jones uses the same opinion piece as the others.

Just for fun lets see what this report from the UCS actually says. The title: Is News Corp Failing Science. It is put together by Aaron Huertas and Dena Adler, Lets see what their position are in the org. Aaron is a press secretary and Dena is an outreach intern. Now lets read the report. On Page five before the report even begins the Acknowledgements section says this.

The opinion expressed in this report are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of those who funded the work. Link

You know that is the same thing hear from tv stations right before some con artist tries to sell me his latest get rich quick scheme.

So what you have done here is link to opinion pieces that study opinion based shows that link back to an opinion piece. WOW

And some still wonder why people like me hate and I mean hate both sides of the aisle.





Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2048
202. OldLeatherneck 6:32 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    


I thought I would try to bring the discussion back to the topic which Dr. Rood started this blog entry on, that is the time frame(s) related to Climate change.

As many others here who are following the dramatic change in the Arctic Region, I thought I would make a chart depicting how the loss of Arctic Sea Ice could/would impact society. Not only will global and national economies be impacted severely, societal cohesion will be stressed if not shattered.

I have purposely not placed any dates on the timeline because there is still uncertainty in the knowledgeable community about when these events will occur. For example the discussions on neven's blog seem to place an ice-free September in the 2016 timeframe, possibly sooner yet most probably well before 2020. Once we reach a perennially ice-free
Arctic Ocean we have gone far beyond the tipping point and the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will
accelerate to the point where we will be measuring Sea Level Rise in inches/year.

I'm afraid that I might live to see every milestone on this charting excepting the final state. I feel for those of you who have youngsters who will have to live through the Epic Collapse about to be brought upon this earth of ours.
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204. Neapolitan 7:06 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting nymore:


Your first link uses an opinion piece as an actual study. The primetime shows on Fox are opinion based and not actual news

Your next link talks about opinion based programs on Fox as if they are actual news broadcasts. The article itself is in the opinion section

Third link same thing uses a report that itself is an opinion piece. Look at back number one

Fourth one Media Matters, honestly you link to them, they are as unbiased as Drudge. I did not even waste my time

Fifth Mother Jones uses the same opinion piece as the others.

Just for fun lets see what this report from the UCS actually says. The title: Is News Corp Failing Science. It is put together by Aaron Huertas and Dena Adler, Lets see what their position are in the org. Aaron is a press secretary and Dena is an outreach intern. Now lets read the report. On Page five before the report even begins the Acknowledgements section says this.

The opinion expressed in this report are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of those who funded the work. Link

You know that is the same thing hear from tv stations right before some con artist tries to sell me his latest get rich quick scheme.

So what you have done here is link to opinion pieces that study opinion based shows that link back to an opinion piece. WOW

And some still wonder why people like me hate and I mean hate both sides of the aisle.





Then perhaps Fox "News" should stop with the prime-time opinion programming, huh? Though to be honest, that'd would leave them showing nothing but dead air. Which, on second thought, is probably a pretty good idea, and would certainly be an improvement over the non-stop dreck they broadcast now.

At any rate, I'm not surprised you wouldn't discuss the actual results of the studies, choosing instead to find fault with the sources; desperately attacking those sources is pretty much all you guys have left.

Fox has proven again and again that they are neither valid nor credible (much less fair and balanced). If nothing else convinces you of that, their election night shenanigans certainly should have. The thing about climate science is, just as with Fox's election night broadcasting, truth trumps wishful thinking. It always has, and always will.

The climate is rapidly changing primarily because of our foolish obsession with fossil fuels. No amount of Fox lies and distortions, no number of denialist "climate experts" given air time, are going to change that. The cable outlet, like much of its target audience, is on the wrong side of science and the wrong side of fact--and will eventually find itself on the wrong side of history.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
205. Neapolitan 7:09 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Incorrect on all accounts. Try again please. I am just dying of your response. The anticipation is just tickling me!

None of those links even comes close to disprove my original point on Fox News being one of the most honest News Networks out there.
Not even close.
Shorter version: "I refuse to accept facts, and choose instead to live in the fantasy world I've created."

Not very scientific, but, well, whatever floats your boat. As the seas rise...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
208. aspectre 7:17 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Nice wordplay, "...whatever floats your boat. As the seas rise..."
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209. goosegirl1 7:20 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting nymore:
No it is not a philosophical question. If the hole itself is made of matter it should consume itself, but we know information can not be destroyed. This is what Susskind and Hawking argued about for 20 some years. We know Black Holes are vast repositories of information but other than information are they actually made of anything.

This is probably not the place for this conversation so I will leave it there.


Ah, I see what you mean now. You were talking about the debates surrounding classsical gravity theory and string theory. I suppose we could have this conversation here, but it may be boring- I know little about string theory and quantum mechanics.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 860
210. nymore 7:21 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
Then perhaps Fox "News" should stop with the prime-time opinion programming, huh? Though to be honest, that'd would leave them showing nothing but dead air. Which, on second thought, is probably a pretty good idea, and would certainly be an improvement over the non-stop dreck they broadcast now.

At any rate, I'm not surprised you wouldn't discuss the actual results of the studies, choosing instead to find fault with the sources; desperately attacking those sources is pretty much all you guys have left.

Fox has proven again and again that they are neither valid nor credible (much less fair and balanced). If nothing else convinces you of that, their election night shenanigans certainly should have. The thing about climate science is, just as with Fox's election night broadcasting, truth trumps wishful thinking. It always has, and always will.

The climate is rapidly changing primarily because of our foolish obsession with fossil fuels. No amount of Fox lies and distortions, no number of denialist "climate experts" given air time, are going to change that. The cable outlet, like much of its target audience, is on the wrong side of science and the wrong side of fact--and will eventually find itself on the wrong side of history.
I don't like Fox News in fact I find it trash. I did not attack anything, I pointed out your study was nothing more than an opinion piece and in fact linked to it. UCS says themselves it is opinion. I am sure in your mind the prime time programming on MSNBC is not opinion based. Here is a news flash, they are both opinion based drivel.

I like how you tried to call me biased when in fact nothing could be further from the truth. You could not attack anything I posted so you attacked me. I guess that is all you had left.

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211. GeorgiaStormz 7:21 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
So this is where the war REALLY goes on.
And NOTHING is gained in this discussion.
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212. Naga5000 7:26 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:




The seas haven't been rising in over 100 years. And they are still not rising. And why do I always read they will rise and then they conveniently push back the date to when they ACTUALLY WILL rise???

Something to ponder inside that cozy bubble you've been living in the past decade.




A simple google search can show you that sea levels have been rising. There is plenty to choose from, from academic journals to newspaper articles to verified graphs using tidal gauge data and/or satellite measurements. Sigh.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 458
213. Some1Has2BtheRookie 7:28 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting nymore:


Your first link uses an opinion piece as an actual study. The primetime shows on Fox are opinion based and not actual news

Your next link talks about opinion based programs on Fox as if they are actual news broadcasts. The article itself is in the opinion section

Third link same thing uses a report that itself is an opinion piece. Look at back number one

Fourth one Media Matters, honestly you link to them, they are as unbiased as Drudge. I did not even waste my time

Fifth Mother Jones uses the same opinion piece as the others.

Just for fun lets see what this report from the UCS actually says. The title: Is News Corp Failing Science. It is put together by Aaron Huertas and Dena Adler, Lets see what their position are in the org. Aaron is a press secretary and Dena is an outreach intern. Now lets read the report. On Page five before the report even begins the Acknowledgements section says this.

The opinion expressed in this report are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of those who funded the work. Link

You know that is the same thing hear from tv stations right before some con artist tries to sell me his latest get rich quick scheme.

So what you have done here is link to opinion pieces that study opinion based shows that link back to an opinion piece. WOW

And some still wonder why people like me hate and I mean hate both sides of the aisle.







Nymore, do you defend the FOX News network on their reporting on the climate change discussions or do you just seek opportunities to attack Nea? Both could be true, or neither. Should it be "neither" then I question as to why you are always so quick to defend FOX News and attack Nea for making comments about FOX News?

I will say that I think the FOX News news broadcast of current events is as accurate as any of the other news broadcast stations. Where FOX News Network fails its listener-ship is with the talk shows it will broadcast.

TomballTxPride - Do you intend to only just flutter around in everyone's face, much as a gnat does, or do you intend to bring any relevant discussion points to this blog? As with a gnat, you are harmless, but none the less as annoying. I hope that this statement does not offend you any more than what your actions here have been.

Added

I see your response to Nea in post #210. I reread your other post (#201). I agree that you did not make any direct attacks, but it came off as an attack just the same. Still, you did not make a direct attack and I offer you my apology for seeing it as one.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
215. aspectre 7:32 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
211 GeorgiaStormz: So this is where the war REALLY goes on. And NOTHING is gained in this discussion.

What we can't see is that there are people who read, but do not comment. And they are the ones whose opinions are the most amenable to persuasion through the presentation of facts and opinions.
Thus failure to present ones arguments is just conceding the political/economic part of the issue to those with an opposing viewpoint.
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216. nymore 7:35 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nymore, do you defend the FOX News network on their reporting on the climate change discussions or do you just seek opportunities to attack Nea? Both could be true, or neither. Should it be "neither" then I question as to why you are always so quick to defend FOX News and attack Nea for making comments about FOX News?

I will say that I think the FOX News news broadcast of current events is as accurate as any of the other news broadcast stations. Where FOX News Network fails its listener-ship is with the talk shows it will broadcast.

TomballTxPride - Do you intend to only just flutter around in everyone's face, much as a gnat does, or do you intend to bring any relevant discussion points to this blog? As with a gnat, you are harmless, but none the less as annoying. I hope that this statement does not offend you any more than what your actions here have been.


I don't defend Fox News but when someone puts forth an opinion piece as evidence and then complains about Fox News or whoever. They are doing the same thing they are accusing Fox News as doing. It is called Hypocrisy, Both MSNBC and Fox have opinion based talk shows on, if you are an adult and you do not know the difference between opinion and fact, you are a fool.

Edit: Notice he said Fox should not broadcast opinion based shows but says nothing about MSNBC. He thinks he is part of the solution, when in fact he is part of the problem. If both sides would just get the hell out of the way maybe we could get something done.
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217. Some1Has2BtheRookie 7:38 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So this is where the war REALLY goes on.
And NOTHING is gained in this discussion.


"Nothing is gained" is the goal of a few posters here. There is lots to be gained when everyone focuses on the problem of the current climate change. Working on solutions should be everyone's goal even if they believe that humans are only minor contributors to the problem.
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218. Naga5000 7:38 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:




*Sigh*

And how many times have I been over this with all of you. Of course this is the first time I have seen you, so allow me.

Do you believe everything you see published on the internet, specifically when you "google" something.

There is nothing scientific that says the seas have risen. Yes, there are predictions that suggest they will rise at a given point. But I have been hearing that now for the past 30 years and nothing.





Why do you hate science? It's not about believing what you see on the internet. I do research for a living. I understand what real research is versus spurious claims. You are the one that seems to not believe what is clearly observable through scientific discovery and data analysis. Sometimes the truth hurts.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 458
219. Xulonn 7:41 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:

The seas haven't been rising in over 100 years. And they are still not rising. And why do I always read they will rise and then they conveniently push back the date to when they ACTUALLY WILL rise???
Something to ponder inside that cozy bubble you've been living in the past decade.
This is pure denialist drivel that doesn't even attempt to back a claim. It has absolutely no basis in science or fact. It makes no sense for anyone to even attempt to rebut this un-scientific and totally ridiculous post. It's really lame to try to foist such ridiculous false information on anyone with an IQ above the temperature of a swimming pool.

One of the most indisputable facts of AGW/CC is that sea levels are rising, and anyone with an ounce of intelligence knows that.

From SkepticalScience.com
Photobucket
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220. Neapolitan 7:41 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So this is where the war REALLY goes on.
And NOTHING is gained in this discussion.
And yet, here you are. Go figure... ;-)

But to be clear, there is no "war" here; just a lot of science-minded individuals discussing climate science and its implications, interrupted on occasion by trollish comments from the denialist set that are quickly and savagely swatted away by the adults.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
221. Naga5000 7:47 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:




*Sigh*

And how many times have I been over this with all of you. Of course this is the first time I have seen you, so allow me.

Do you believe everything you see published on the internet, specifically when you "google" something.

There is nothing scientific that says the seas have risen. Yes, there are predictions that suggest they will rise at a given point. But I have been hearing that now for the past 30 years and nothing.






Here have a paper Link and you can read about sea level rise. Then post some actual scientific work on sea levels not rising. I would love to give them a read. (As a bonus, I would suggest checking out the "References" section of the paper, there are plenty of good reads in there as well)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 458
222. Some1Has2BtheRookie 7:47 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting nymore:


I don't defend Fox News but when someone puts forth an opinion piece as evidence and then complains about Fox News or whoever. They are doing the same thing they are accusing Fox News as doing. It is called Hypocrisy, Both MSNBC and Fox have opinion based talk shows on, if you are an adult and you do not know the difference between opinion and fact, you are a fool.

Edit: Notice he said Fox should not broadcast opinion based shows but says nothing about MSNBC. He thinks he is part of the solution, when in fact he is part of the problem. If both sides would just get the hell out of the way maybe we could get something done.


I SOOOOO agree with you here!

If ALL opinion based shows would loudly and continuously make the claim, "This is my opinion and my opinion does not mean SQUAT!" then, perhaps, some real progress could be made. My problem is when they desire that their opinions should be taken as facts.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
223. nymore 7:48 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I SOOOOO agree with you here!

If ALL opinion based shows would loudly and continuously make the claim, "This is my opinion and my opinion does not mean SQUAT!" then, perhaps, some real progress could be made. My problem is when they desire that their opinions should be taken as facts.


Three cheers for you sir.
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224. Neapolitan 7:49 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting nymore:
I don't like Fox News in fact I find it trash. I did not attack anything, I pointed out your study was nothing more than an opinion piece and in fact linked to it. UCS says themselves it is opinion. I am sure in your mind the prime time programming on MSNBC is not opinion based. Here is a news flash, they are both opinion based drivel.

I like how you tried to call me biased when in fact nothing could be further from the truth. You could not attack anything I posted so you attacked me. I guess that is all you had left.

It's funny; every time someone brings up Fox's well-known--and well-deserved--anti-science reputation, some defender shouts out, "But MSNBC!" My response. Again:

A) I don't watch MSNBC much.

B) The head honchos at MSNBC have not sent out memoranda ordering their employees to lie about climate change.

C) When MSNBC does talk about climate change, they tend to have on actual, you know, climate scientists, not debunked nitwits like Watts and Bastardi.

D) To the best of my knowledge--and please correct me if I'm wrong--there have been no credible university studies undertaken that point conclusively to how MSNBC's systemic and systematic dissemination of lies and propaganda have lead to its viewers having a very flimsy grasp on the issues of the day. (Care to take a guess as to which network has?)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
225. VR46L 7:51 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
And yet, here you are. Go figure... ;-)

But to be clear, there is no "war" here; just a lot of science-minded individuals discussing climate science and its implications, interrupted on occasion by trollish comments from the denialist set that are quickly and savagely swatted away by the adults.


Please define what you mean by trollish ?

Just wondering is it everyone that disagrees with you?

I have already said my piece on Denialist labeling .. that it seeks IMO to dehumanize the person .

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2794
226. Neapolitan 7:55 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:
>There is nothing scientific that says the seas have risen. Yes, there are predictions that suggest they will rise at a given point. But I have been hearing that now for the past 30 years and nothing.>
If you're gonna devote so much effort to trolling, can you at least try to give us something challenging?

SLR

(I realize it's from one of those icky "universities", with their "professors" and "scientists" and "studies" and all that other stuff that turns off denialists, but, still, you may want to give it a few minutes of your time. Source)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
227. Neapolitan 8:00 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting VR46L:


Please define what you mean by trollish ?

Just wondering is it everyone that disagrees with you?

I have already said my piece on Denialist labeling .. that it seeks IMO to dehumanize the person .

Anyone who has watched me as obsessively as some on here have know well and good that I will politely discuss any issue with anyone for any length of time, and will never even think of calling that person's behavior "trollish". No, trollish behavior in this venue means posting something with the sole intent not of learning or engaging in a constructive debate or adding something of value to the dialog, but merely to invoke an emotional reaction/response from one or more people. That's trolling.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
228. GeorgiaStormz 8:00 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
And yet, here you are. Go figure... ;-)

But to be clear, there is no "war" here; just a lot of science-minded individuals discussing climate science and its implications, interrupted on occasion by trollish comments from the denialist set that are quickly and savagely swatted away by the adults.


seems more than "occasional" and the "savage swatting" seems to have no effect.

I stand on my "war" comment.
And I came here because I saw there was a lot of activity here from the "community activity" widget.
I haven't argued for or against anyone.
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229. nymore 8:02 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's funny; every time someone brings up Fox's well-known--and well-deserved--anti-science reputation, some defender shouts out, "But MSNBC!" A) I don't watch MSNBC much.

B) The head honchos at MSNBC have not sent out memoranda ordering their employees to lie about climate change.

C) When MSNBC does talk about climate change, they tend to have on actual, you know, climate scientists, not debunked nitwits like Watts and Bastardi.

D) To the best of my knowledge--and please correct me if I'm wrong--there have been no credible university studies undertaken that point conclusively to how MSNBC's systemic and systematic dissemination of lies and propaganda have lead to its viewers having a very flimsy grasp on the issues of the day. (Care to take a guess as to which network has?)


My point is both sides spin the news to fit their viewers opinions, you can not and will not see this because you yourself are so biased in your opinion. I do not care if it is tv, radio or the web. People like you on either side are the problem and not the solution. People like me fully independent are the solution because we hold no set way of thinking and would work for a solution that makes sense without taking sides.

A good example is when I get 2 or 3 sub contractors arguing over a solution to a problem. I usually find their solution gives them some benefit. When I look at the problem and make the final call, if none of them are exactly happy about it, I probably made the right call. I am not there to play favorites I am there to solve the problem, period.
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230. Neapolitan 8:04 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
...the "savage swatting" seems to have no effect.
Many would disagree with you, I think. Combating obfuscation, scientific illiteracy, and intentional ignorance with truth, fact, and intellectual honesty is always effective. Perhaps not immediately in any measurable way, but when playing a long game, every bit helps...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
231. cyclonebuster 8:06 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Back on the Fox News bashing, huh cyclonebuster? What's wrong? Running out of AGW arguments to make. Well running dry?

In no way is Fox hellbent on denying climate change. Fox is probably one of the more truthful News Outlets.

Sounds like your on to a juicy conspiracy theory. I love a juicy, good old fashioned conspiracy theory.

Please keep it coming, cyclonebuster. We all look forward to it.



Why won't they use NOAA data?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 18782
232. FLwolverine 8:06 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Coming out of lurking to say thank you to Nea and Xulonn and others who take the time to refute the "stuff" posted by the denialists and the disruptors on this blog and on Dr Masters' blog. I started reading these blogs and comments months ago when I was looking for information on Hurricane Isaac. I've kept reading for the weather info and the climate change discussions. I've learned a lot in both areas.

One thing I've learned about the denialists is that there are never any facts! I follow the (very few) links they give and the most I ever find is another bunch of deniers chortling like frat boys at a bar whenever they think they've found a bit of evidence contradicting AGW - and of course the so-called evidence never holds up.

It's too bad some of you have to waste your time replying to the repeated nonsense from the denialists, but I want you to know that I - and I'm sure a bunch of other readers and lurkers - appreciate it.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 382
233. GeorgiaStormz 8:11 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Bye the way Nea, what was your App?
Was it successful?
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234. OldLeatherneck 8:15 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
If you're gonna devote so much effort to trolling, can you at least try to give us something challenging?

SLR

(I realize it's from one of those icky "universities", with their "professors" and "scientists" and "studies" and all that other stuff that turns off denialists, but, still, you may want to give it a few minutes of your time. Source)


Neapolitan, I saw the same chart yesterday and was going to post it here, but you were quicker on the draw. I wonder if that large spike in the 2012 Sea Level Rise could be due to the fact that Net Mass Loss for Greenland was in excess of 550 Gigatonnes in 2012. For the uneducated denialists (you know who you are!!) every 330 gigatonnes of water added to the oceans results in 1mm of Sea Level rise.
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235. cyclonebuster 8:16 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


I thought I would try to bring the discussion back to the topic which Dr. Rood started this blog entry on, that is the time frame(s) related to Climate change.

As many others here who are following the dramatic change in the Arctic Region, I thought I would make a chart depicting how the loss of Arctic Sea Ice could/would impact society. Not only will global and national economies be impacted severely, societal cohesion will be stressed if not shattered.

I have purposely not placed any dates on the timeline because there is still uncertainty in the knowledgeable community about when these events will occur. For example the discussions on neven's blog seem to place an ice-free September in the 2016 timeframe, possibly sooner yet most probably well before 2020. Once we reach a perennially ice-free
Arctic Ocean we have gone far beyond the tipping point and the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will
accelerate to the point where we will be measuring Sea Level Rise in inches/year.

I'm afraid that I might live to see every milestone on this charting excepting the final state. I feel for those of you who have youngsters who will have to live through the Epic Collapse about to be brought upon this earth of ours.


That is correct it is no longer our children's or grand children's problem. It is effecting us now...
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236. VR46L 8:16 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
Anyone who has watched me as obsessively as some on here have know well and good that I will politely discuss any issue with anyone for any length of time, and will never even think of calling that person's behavior "trollish". No, trollish behavior in this venue means posting something with the sole intent not of learning or engaging in a constructive debate or adding something of value to the dialog, but merely to invoke an emotional reaction/response from one or more people. That's trolling.


How do you know that people are not learning a little ?

I cant mind read, but like to see both sides of the story rather than just one side of the story and there is another side of the story .and we are learning about things all the time and Science fact does change .
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237. FLwolverine 8:18 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
One more thing before I go back to lurking.  Nymore, just because the UCS study contains a disclaimer doesn't make it an opinion piece.  The authors analyzed the statements from Fox News and presented the results.  They might express opinions about the results, but that doesn't mean the results are just opinions.
You say in another post that an adult who cannot tell the difference between opinion and fact is a fool.  If so, then there a whole lot of fools in this country, because there are a whole lot of people who accept the opinions of those Fox commentators as fact.  Sometimes I do despair!
Quoting nymore:

Your first link uses an opinion piece as an actual study. ..............

Just for fun lets see what this report from the UCS actually says. The title: Is News Corp Failing Science. It is put together by Aaron Huertas and Dena Adler, Lets see what their position are in the org. Aaron is a press secretary and Dena is an outreach intern. Now lets read the report. On Page five before the report even begins the Acknowledgements section says this. 

The opinion expressed in this report are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of those who funded the work. Link

Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 382
238. schwankmoe 8:19 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
in all seriousness, how can someone with a straight face argue that there's no evidence that sea levels have risen in the last hundred years?

no wonder she thinks fox is the most truthful source out there. sheesh.

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239. Xulonn 8:22 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Naga5000:

Why do you hate science? It's not about believing what you see on the internet. I do research for a living. I understand what real research is versus spurious claims. You are the one that seems to not believe what is clearly observable through scientific discovery and data analysis. Sometimes the truth hurts.
Hey Naga5000, welcome to the world of AGW/CC denialism where carefully tuned tactics and rhetorical forms are heavily used. Those of us hear who have studied, understand, and for many of us, even worked in science, cringe daily at the ignorance, drivel and utterly stupid and false garbage that is posted here daily.

I'm beginning to think that perhaps TomballPride is simply a delusioned shill for the denialist industry. He/she claims to be a woman - a housewife and mother of young children. However, busy moms don't often have time for this sort of crap, certainly my step-daughter with her four young children does not. Tomball's posts reek of orchestrated denialist propaganda and techniques such as the current LOUD AND LITERALLY SCREAMING denials of common scientific facts. This of course, is based on the well-known propaganda technique that if you repeat a lie often and loud enough, some people will begin to believe it. And this is also a tactic of Fox [so-called] News.

If you enjoy the challenge of jousting with denialist fools and charlatans, this is a good place to visit. Of course there is some actual discussion of the science of AGW/CC here, but when the pack of denialists shows up and starts tweaking the scientific realists who come here to learn and discuss AGW/CC, things degenerate quickly and discussions of science are soon buried in b.s. That seems to be their goal, and they succeed quite often.

I've pretty much stopped trying to rebut obvious individual AGW/CC denialist b.s. posts here, but I enjoy studying and discussing the psychology of denialism. The psychology of irrational AGW/CC denialism creates opportunities to discuss the biggest barrier against doing something about man's HUGE contribution to GW/CC - refusal to accept an obvious truth. Until irrational denialism is finally overwhelmed with a mass understanding and acceptance of the problems we face, little will be done to stem the ominous tide. Without major changes to modern civilization, we are on a path to doom, and like a number of people here, I believe that we are getting close to the final tipping point.
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240. Xulonn 8:27 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So this is where the war REALLY goes on.
And NOTHING is gained in this discussion.

It's not a discussion - it's a concerted denialist attack designed to turn rational discussion of climate science into a seething mass of ego-wars and stop the focus on science. And the denialists are succeeding today in turning this place into a mountain of useless drivel.

The real science discussions are buried in the b.s. or left behind way back there in the rear-view mirror.
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241. nymore 8:29 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting FLwolverine:
One more thing before I go back to lurking.  Nymore, just because the UCS study contains a disclaimer doesn't make it an opinion piece.  The authors analyzed the statements from Fox News and presented the results.  They might express opinions about the results, but that doesn't mean the results are just opinions.
You say in another post that an adult who cannot tell the difference between opinion and fact is a fool.  If so, then there a whole lot of fools in this country, because there are a whole lot of people who accept the opinions of those Fox commentators as fact.  Sometimes I do despair!
Yes there are a lot of fools in this country. Yes the fools on the stools are lying to fit an agenda on both sides. There are three sides to ever story, two sides are opinion and the third is the truth.

Here is an how you move forward. Identify problem (We have done that we are at the very least part of the problem) now move on to ideas on how to solve said problem, (But many here would rather continue identifying the problem, and laying blame I guess it makes them feel useful) after you have identified solid solutions, move on to fixing said problem. Is that so hard to understand.
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242. cyclonebuster 8:31 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting TomballTXPride:




The seas haven't been rising in over 100 years. And they are still not rising. And why do I always read they will rise and then they conveniently push back the date to when they ACTUALLY WILL rise???

Something to ponder inside that cozy bubble you've been living in the past decade.





Stop listening to Fox News,WUWT and Dr. Seuss's farmer Alamanc and start listening to NOAA.....Any news station that allows sacrilegious comments on air I would be very suspect of...
Our oceans are rising and and are getting warmer..
While ocean heat content varies significantly from place to place and from year-to-year (as a result of changing ocean currents and natural variability), there is a strong trend during the period of reliable measurements. Increasing heat content in the ocean is also consistent with sea level rise, which is occurring mostly as a result of thermal expansion of the ocean water as it warms.



img src="
Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of approximately 1.7 mm/year over the past 100 years (measured from tide gauge observations), which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. Since 1993, global sea level has risen at an accelerating rate of around 3.5 mm/year. Much of the sea level rise to date is a result of increasing heat of the ocean causing it to expand. It is expected that melting land ice (e.g. from Greenland and mountain glaciers) will play a more significant role in contributing to future sea level rise.
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243. Xulonn 8:36 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
I realize it's from one of those icky "universities", with their "professors" and "scientists" and "studies" and all that other stuff that turns off denialists, but, still, you may want to give it a few minutes of your time. (Source)

Good post, Nea. It's good when we stop wasting time and space arguing against the lies and ignorance of those who regularly tweak us, and post pure and simple rebuttals like your graph with a linked source.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 415
244. Naga5000 8:38 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Xulonn:
Hey Naga5000, welcome to the world of AGW/CC denialism where carefully tuned tactics and rhetorical forms are heavily used. Those of us hear who have studied, understand, and for many of us, even worked in science, cringe daily at the ignorance, drivel and utterly stupid and false garbage that is posted here daily.

I'm beginning to think that perhaps TomballPride is simply a delusioned shill for the denialist industry. He/she claims to be a woman - a housewife and mother of young children. However, busy moms don't often have time for this sort of crap, certainly my step-daughter with her four young children does not. Tomball's posts reek of orchestrated denialist propaganda and techniques such as the current LOUD AND LITERALLY SCREAMING denials of common scientific facts. This of course, is based on the well-known propaganda technique that if you repeat a lie often and loud enough, some people will begin to believe it. And this is also a tactic of Fox [so-called] News.

If you enjoy the challenge of jousting with denialist fools and charlatans, this is a good place to visit. Of course there is some actual discussion of the science of AGW/CC here, but when the pack of denialists shows up and starts tweaking the scientific realists who come here to learn and discuss AGW/CC, things degenerate quickly and discussions of science are soon buried in b.s. That seems to be their goal, and they succeed quite often.

I've pretty much stopped trying to rebut obvious individual AGW/CC denialist b.s. posts here, but I enjoy studying and discussing the psychology of denialism. The psychology of irrational AGW/CC denialism creates opportunities to discuss the biggest barrier against doing something about man's HUGE contribution to GW/CC - refusal to accept an obvious truth. Until irrational denialism is finally overwhelmed with a mass understanding and acceptance of the problems we face, little will be done to stem the ominous tide. Without major changes to modern civilization, we are on a path to doom, and like a number of people here, I believe that we are getting close to the final tipping point.


I've posted in Dr. Master's blog before, and regularly read Dr. Rood's, but this is my first time posting here, so thanks for the welcome. I'm a social scientist by trade and weather is my hobby. I'm actually quite amazed by denialism and anti-intellectualism that is prevalent, not only in the climate change debate, but across a lot of the topics I work with in the social sciences. I hope to have some engaging discussions on climate and climate change and learn some new information along the way, hopefully, without needing to shout over denialist claims too often, but if not, spreading facts and truth is always good.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 458
245. Some1Has2BtheRookie 8:39 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


seems more than "occasional" and the "savage swatting" seems to have no effect.

I stand on my "war" comment.
And I came here because I saw there was a lot of activity here from the "community activity" widget.
I haven't argued for or against anyone.


I encourage you to stick around, GeorgiaStormz, if only in lurk mode. I believe that you will soon discover who are the antagonist here and who are the ones that are attempting to have serious and meaningful discussions here. We may not come to any meaningful conclusions, but we do work towards that goal.
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246. cyclonebuster 8:47 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Neapolitan, I saw the same chart yesterday and was going to post it here, but you were quicker on the draw. I wonder if that large spike in the 2012 Sea Level Rise could be due to the fact that Net Mass Loss for Greenland was in excess of 550 Gigatonnes in 2012. For the uneducated denialists (you know who you are!!) every 330 gigatonnes of water added to the oceans results in 1mm of Sea Level rise.



Or it could be because of this melted ice expanding...Most likely a combination of both....



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247. Xulonn 8:48 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Getting close to 50 comments on this page (from #200), and only a couple of them on the subject of actual, relevant real AGW/CC science.

This place is much more interesting and useful when there's only a handful of real-science based posts and discussion and the denialists haven't buried it in b.s.

Time to head over to Tamino and Neven to read some real science.
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248. Some1Has2BtheRookie 8:52 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting VR46L:


How do you know that people are not learning a little ?

I cant mind read, but like to see both sides of the story rather than just one side of the story and there is another side of the story .and we are learning about things all the time and Science fact does change .


I suggest that you do learn the talking points of both sides of the issue. This is exactly what Neapolitan suggested that I do when I first came here and wanting to learn more. I found that I not only learned the science faster, but , also, I learned faster how to recognize what is science in the talking points and what is merely distractions away from the science. Learning both sides of the talking points has proved itself invaluable to me in how I can communicate with others and in what is pertinent information in the discussions.
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249. Xulonn 8:53 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Delete duplicate post.
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250. Xandra 9:12 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Six Aspects of Denial

By Mike

I’ve adopted the “Six Aspects of Denial” from Sean B. Carroll’s book “The Making of the fittest”.

These are the most common non-scientific objections to the science of climate change. Actually, I will be so bold as to say these six “aspects” are pretty the only arguments the denial movement has: there is no science that supports their position.

I’ll be this framework to “tag” or categorise the type of arguments used by the denial movement in all future posts. At the end of each post I’ll nominate which aspect of denial I note, and offer a brief explanation. In this I’ll be taking a leaf from the wonderful work that John Cook has done at Skeptical Science. I’m hoping such a framework helps people identify the type of arguments used by the denial movement.

I hope this framework helps people understands the flawed logic behind many of the arguments used by the denial movement.

1. Doubt the science – This is the standard tactic of all denial movements. Creationists attack evolution and geology as they contradict the belief a god/s created the world just under 10,000 years ago. Alternative health practitioners claim the science that demonstrates the lack of effectiveness of their treatments is at fault. On web sites, in books and on in internet forums they attack the science by cherry picking data, misrepresenting research or making bogus claims.

2. Question the motives and integrity of scientists – This is the favourite tactic of the climate change denial movement. They claim the scientists are engaged in fraud, or are being pressured by governments to make up the results. They make up vast conspiracy theories in order to cast aspersions on the motives of climate scientists, physicists and biologists whose work confirms the reality of climate change. They use the “follow the money” argument, stating scientists are making up climate change in order to get research funding. All them are simply ad hominem attacks: playing the man.

3. Magnify disagreements among scientists and cite gadflies – Again, one of the favourite tactics of the denial movement. The tiny percentage of actual scientists who express scepticism (Plimer, Lindzen) are dwarfed by the thousands of scientists who agree with the consensus that climate change is happening. But the denial movement exploits the media’s tendency to present “both sides” of the argument and thus help perpetrate the myth scientists are still debating climate change, when in fact there is near unanimous agreement.

4. Exaggerate potential harm – This normally takes the form of “harm” the economy if the government intervenes. This is why opposition to cap-and-trade (or emissions trading schemes) are anathema to some parts of the denial movement. They also claim a climate change is an excuse to usher in a “world government” into existence. The denial movement plays up to these fears, playing on the anxiety that they will lose their freedoms (see below).

5. Appeal to personal freedom – One of the great fears of the denial movements is a loss of freedom. Whether economic or political, they have a paranoid fear that someone (government, scientists, greens, politicians) are going to restrict their right to unlimited consumption or their freedom of speech. But reality is not a democracy. We don’t get to choose the truth about climate change, just as a popular debate about evolution decides the scientific evidence. The denial movement loves to frame this as a “debate” when none exists, claiming they have a right to doubt the science. Of course they do. But it does not mean they are correct.

6. Acceptance repudiates key philosophy – For libertarians and free market advocates, climate change is a direct challenge to their assumption of unlimited growth. Any response to climate change will involve government intervention and global governance structures (such as a binding treaty to limit CO2 emissions). To such ideologues, it is axiomatic that such responses are “bad”. And yet the “market” can’t fix climate. Caught between having to accepting the science and what it entails and rejecting it in favour of their faith in the market, they reject the science. The same could be said of religious conservatives: like evolution, climate change is a direct challenge to the idea that a god/s has a governance role and is directly responsibly for managing the day-to-day affairs of the world. That a god/s would let climate change happen and not intervene is deeply challenging to the idea that a) they would allow such “evil” and b) the god/s is omnipotent.

Source


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251. cyclonebuster 9:23 PM GMT on January 23, 2013    
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's funny; every time someone brings up Fox's well-known--and well-deserved--anti-science reputation, some defender shouts out, "But MSNBC!" My response. Again:

A) I don't watch MSNBC much.

B) The head honchos at MSNBC have not sent out memoranda ordering their employees to lie about climate change.

C) When MSNBC does talk about climate change, they tend to have on actual, you know, climate scientists, not debunked nitwits like Watts and Bastardi.

D) To the best of my knowledge--and please correct me if I'm wrong--there have been no credible university studies undertaken that point conclusively to how MSNBC's systemic and systematic dissemination of lies and propaganda have lead to its viewers having a very flimsy grasp on the issues of the day. (Care to take a guess as to which network has?)


LOL! I forgot about Bastardi being equal to Fox News,WUWT and Dr.Seuss's farmers Almanac.....How is it he can be so stupid for so long? What's it been like 35 years now??? Does he even know that NOAA exists?
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About RickyRood
I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles include ideas from the course. And no tuition!

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