The Role of Short Timers

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 2:03 AM GMT on January 18, 2013

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The Role of Short Timers

The previous entry described how I start to think about time and addressing the challenges of climate change. My focus was on generational time; that is, the amount of time it takes for one generation to replace the last generation. My message from that was not, “just wait,” but it is important to recognize that the fundamental changes in our behavior and energy systems will require some time.

This entry I will describe the issues that make climate change a problem in the here and now. In the following figure I highlight several items that are important in the short term. For the purpose of this article the short term is less than 10 years.



Figure 1: Thinking about time and climate change: What is important in the short-term?

1) Accumulation of Carbon Dioxide: From a climate scientist’s perspective the traditional short time issue is the “stabilization” of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That is, after we get all of this figured out, what is the amount of carbon dioxide that we have in the atmosphere? I refer back to several blogs I have written on stabilization. The basic idea is that the carbon dioxide we release from fossil fuels stays with us for a very long time; it does not really go away. A number that I quote in one of those blogs is that every year we emit like we are emitting now, we will be encumbered with about nine additional parts per million of carbon dioxide. To put this in perspective, prior to the industrial revolution we had about 280 parts per million and now we have about 400 parts per million. Therefore, actions we take now have consequences on lengths of times that we more commonly associate with geology.

2) Impacts of Extreme Events: We live in a climate that is warming rapidly. The weather is changing in some basic measures, such as, extreme precipitation, the speed at which storms move, the size of storms, the paths they follow, etc. At the same time that the weather changes, sea level is rising; snow and ice are melting. Therefore, we see larger impacts of storms like Superstorm Sandy. (see Cynthia Rosenzweig Interview) In Alaska, we see enormous erosion as shores that were protected by sea ice are left unprotected as the ice melts. We need to anticipate these changes in the impacts of extreme events that come from the fact that the weather is working in a world where many things are changing. This makes sense for preparedness, and it provides us case studies to help us think about the future.

3. Fast Ecosystem Changes: I sat in a meeting this week where people were thinking about how a warming climate and changing weather patterns would impact forests. Extreme events have huge impacts on forests through drought, flooding, fire, and salt-water storm surges. We used to imagine these forests “coming back” in the same climate. But now we have to think about the forests coming back with warmer temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and with new characteristics of extreme weather, for example, an extremely warm spring. Aside from changes to these basic environmental parameters, there are new opportunities for invasive species and disease. The forests might not even come back as forests. For example, with forests currently at the boundary of the prairie, like in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the forest is likely to return as savanna. (see the amazing work of Lee Frelich, for example Climate Change, Invasive, Species and Forests). I don’t say this in the spirit that we will avoid this if we do something now, but that we need to plan now – to borrow a phrase, to plan for the best savanna possible, rather than a scrub land of invasive species.

4. Election Time Scales: In the United States at the federal level, this is two, four, and six years – thereby, effectively two years. Through policy shifts we see expression of issues of energy security and economy. We see amplification of the political interests that are backed by dollars. We see the impact of tax arguments and tax policy – the impact of research and development budgets to promote and to inhibit technology development. At the city and state level, we see, often, the more stable policy development that reflect local and regional values. The decisions we make on these two-year cycles have enormous consequences for how we deal with global, long-term problems. (See arcane note at the end.)

The decisions that we make each and every day influence our long-term response to climate change. The impact varies from how warm it will ultimately be, to how we anticipate and respond to the disruptions of weather and climate, to how we invest in the technologies and opportunities that would allow us to address, more quickly, climate change. My goal is recognize the role of all of these different factors that work at different spans of time, and how do we change the world so that things converge in an accelerated way to address climate change and sustainability.


r

Rood Interview: Saga of Climate Change


Arcane Note: I grew up in the South in a family that was more politically interested than most. I saw the emergence and growth of, for example, Regent University. I remember at the time hearing of Pat Robertson’s vision of training what now has become their motto of “Christian Leadership to Change the World.” I listened to the idea of training journalists, lawyers, educated citizens who would get elected to town councils, school boards, mayors, state legislatures, governors, and ultimately, populating the federal government in both elected and appointed positions. I remember as a much younger man thinking, “That’s a really good strategy.” My personal opinion is that this has one of the most consequential movements in U.S. politics in my life. To add a little substance to my experience here are some articles you might find interesting:

Student Body Right, 2005, C. Hayes
Who’s the Boss, 2007, D. Lithwick
Pat, Bob and Regent University, 2009

My point: With a little organization, consideration of the short-term, and a generation of time, we can make changes that are more consequential than just letting things happen.


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i'll question whoever i want to, kiddo. acting like others are completely above reproach shows your colors more than anything else.

Quoting TomballTXPride:




Skankwmoe ~ What are YOU doing? Propose an idea to remedy the problem. Contribute here. But DON'T question Cyclonebuster.

It shows your true character, Son.





Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 735
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I believe the science, Michael.




I have nothing more to say than this :


**For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
Carl Sagan**



Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
if i had what i thought was the only possible solution to a scenario that will devastate the earth, i'd be knocking on every politician's door in the country. and even if they said no, i'd keep trying.

i'd be shopping this idea around to everyone who could do something 24/7.

Quoting cyclonebuster:


Where else is there to be?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 735
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Science has been in existence for far longer than Obama has been alive. Science is not determined by party vote. Science is determined by always testing it. I do agree with you that science is ignored more along party lines. There is the problem.

I know of no one that supports AGW. Well, maybe the fossil fuel industries do. There are those that support the science behind the AGWT and there are those that could care less about what the science shows if it interferes with their own ideology or personal beliefs.

I did not vote for Obama in either election and yet I support the science behind the AGWT. There are members of the Republican party that supports the science behind the AGWT. There are Democrats that do not support the science behind the AGWT. How does that fit into your hypothesis concerning the acceptance of the AGWT as being based on who supports Obama?

When you have the science to support what appears to be your disbelief in the science that supports the AGWT, I would be pleased for you to present it to us.


The division is created by FOX NEWS..........
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Why is it that all the Obama supporters support AGW, while the non-Obama supporters don't? Is this really as political as I think? Is bi-partisan politics really blinding science?

If all is true above, Folks; we have a problem.






Science has been in existence for far longer than Obama has been alive. Science is not determined by party vote. Science is determined by always testing it. I do agree with you that science is ignored more along party lines. There is the problem.

I know of no one that supports AGW. Well, maybe the fossil fuel industries do. There are those that support the science behind the AGWT and there are those that could care less about what the science shows if it interferes with their own ideology or personal beliefs.

I did not vote for Obama in either election and yet I support the science behind the AGWT. There are members of the Republican party that supports the science behind the AGWT. There are Democrats that do not support the science behind the AGWT. How does that fit into your hypothesis concerning the acceptance of the AGWT as being based on who supports Obama?

When you have the science to support what appears to be your disbelief in the science that supports the AGWT, I would be pleased for you to present it to us.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting Neapolitan:
snowWhy, yes! That must be it! A "slow patch"! That explains everything! I mean, temperatures have continued to rise around the globe, with record highs outnumbering record lows by a wide margin, and the U.S. just came off its hottest year ever, and Australia has been scorching for the past three weeks, and parts of the Middle East and western Asia are setting heat records right this moment, and polar ice is at or near all-time lows (depending on which metric is used), and nearly 40 nations have set all-time high records over the past three years, while just one has set an all-time low temperature record, but c'mon; it's chilly in Johnson's UK, so clearly the sun is "having a slow patch", and an ice age is beginning!

Johnson's latest "article" is the big cherry of stupid atop a huge sundae of denialist ignorance. Bully for him.


A resonse to Boris Johnson's Op-Ed by Dana Nuticelli:

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Open Letter to London Mayor Boris Johnson - Weather is not Climate

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Neapolitan ~ How come you never plus cyclonebuster's comments. He supports AGW as much as you? Why do I sense partiality here with you??








How many jobs will tunnels create while protecting Gods Good Earth?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Why is it that all the Obama supporters support AGW, while the non-Obama supporters don't? Is this really as political as I think? Is bi-partisan politics really blinding science?

If all is true above, Folks; we have a problem.






For the most part this is correct....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
A new asteroid-mining company will unveil itself to the world on Tuesday (Jan. 22) and is expected to present an ambitious plan to exploit the resources of deep space.

The new private spaceflight company, called Deep Space Industries, Inc., will reveal its plans at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Tuesday at the Santa Monica Museum of Flying in California. The new company is the second audacious project aimed at tapping the myriad riches that asteroids harbor.

Deep Space seeks to launch "the world's first fleet of commercial asteroid-prospecting spacecraft," according to a press advisory the company sent to reporters. "Deep Space is pursuing an aggressive schedule and plans on prospecting, harvesting and processing asteroids for use in space and to benefit Earth."


Link




Sounds good.

Except;

current administration EPA will intervene as the substances contained in near earth objects could be toxic,and could contaminate outer space environment,

OHSA will label this as industrial accident waiting to happen,

IRS will propose a pretax estimate of expected value of minerals not recovered

Joe Biden will be designated Space CZAR, upon 2 days research he declares this activity
unsafe, suggests presidential decree to ban everything.

Welcome to (NO) job creation Nobama.2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:
Ostberg prospers for Qatar M-Sport

Ostberg prospers for Qatar M-SportFrom Ford Press [ 19/01/2013 ].

[snip]
snow
Quoting iceagecoming:
By Boris Johnson

9:54PM GMT 20 Jan 2013

It%u2019s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age
Something is up with our winter weather. Could it be the Sun is having a slow patch?
Why, yes! That must be it! A "slow patch"! That explains everything! I mean, temperatures have continued to rise around the globe, with record highs outnumbering record lows by a wide margin, and the U.S. just came off its hottest year ever, and Australia has been scorching for the past three weeks, and parts of the Middle East and western Asia are setting heat records right this moment, and polar ice is at or near all-time lows (depending on which metric is used), and nearly 40 nations have set all-time high records over the past three years, while just one has set an all-time low temperature record, but c'mon; it's chilly in Johnson's UK, so clearly the sun is "having a slow patch", and an ice age is beginning!

Johnson's latest "article" is the big cherry of stupid atop a huge sundae of denialist ignorance. Bully for him.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
"By Boris Johnson

9:54PM GMT 20 Jan 2013

It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age
Something is up with our winter weather. Could it be the Sun is having a slow patch?"


Wow, and I was a fan of Boris bikes. How cherry picking can he get... I wonder what concession he needs from the city now that he is changing his tune?

What an ultramaroon! What an im-BESS-il!
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting schwankmoe:
no offense, but if you really believe that your idea is the only thing that can save the world, what are you doing here?



Where else is there to be?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
no offense, but if you really believe that your idea is the only thing that can save the world, what are you doing here?

Quoting cyclonebuster:


Tunnels are everything Mr. President wants and what Gods Good Earth needs...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 735
Ostberg prospers for Qatar M-Sport

Ostberg prospers for Qatar M-SportFrom Ford Press [ 19/01/2013 ].
Click to read all other Ford Ford News.


Rallye Monte-Carlo is treacherous at the best of times, but the 2013 edition of the legendary event witnessed some of the most difficult conditions the FIA World Rally Championship (WRC) has seen in years.






Provence & Côte d'Azur: A layer of snow has caused major disruptions to roads and public transport
Snow freezes Nice transport

A 5cm layer of snow on the Promenade des Anglais has frozen public transport and school buses this morning, following days of plummeting temperatures in the Alpes Maritimes.






09:58 10/12/2012
Tags: snow, Czech Republic, Switzerland
Multimedia

Heavy Snowfall in Moscow

MOSCOW, December 10 (RIA Novosti) – At least 24 people have died throughout Europe as a result of heavy snowstorms, media outlets reported on Monday.

Switzerland recorded the highest number of deaths, as avalanches on Sunday killed 11 people, according to Swiss newspaper The Local.
Southeastern Europe, meanwhile, bore the brunt of the snowfall.

Seven people died of hypothermia in the Czech Republic over the weekend, as temperatures fell to -16 degrees Fahrenheit, according to Czech newspaper Lidove Noviny.

At least six people died as a result of the extreme weather in Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Airports throughout Europe were also significantly affected by the snowfall. Frankfurt International Airport was forced to cancel more than 370 flights over the weekend. Some flights, however, were back on track by early Monday.


http://en.rian.ru/world/20121210/178040680.html






By Boris Johnson

9:54PM GMT 20 Jan 2013

It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age
Something is up with our winter weather. Could it be the Sun is having a slow patch?

Link




CoCo, Bloomie, and Nope could learn something here






It must be AGW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xandra:
Game On. Obama Throws Down the Challenge on Climate Change




Tunnels are everything Mr. President wants and what Gods Good Earth needs...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Game On. Obama Throws Down the Challenge on Climate Change


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Incorrect on all accounts. The tunnels would provide much needed help, and would aid far better than make worse.

Perhaps you should read up on more of the models...

:-}




Correct on all accounts they would aid and are far better than business as usual with man made fossil fuel GHG's....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
75. Neapolitan 10:51 AM GMT on January 21, 2013
Thank you for taking time to write that reply. I wish you an epiphany.

cyclonebuster,
Thanks for the reply. I've known about your funnel with a "t" ideas since you first posted them at wu. Then and now, I think they would cause more harm than good.


I would agree with you if you could not regulate the temperature at the discharge but that is not the case..
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting TomballTXPride:







I disagree, David. You have the wrong idea of just how intricate the system is designed. With the tunnels, we remove the excess heat. And at the same time, we can still burn fossils fuels the way we have been for the past 50 years.

A win-win.








And your smart too..... They do wean us off the fossils..
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting NeapolitanFan:
No trend in global temperature in the last decade:



LOL WUWT and more Dr.SUESS farmers market false information....Have you ever heard of NOAA?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting Xulonn:
Unfortunately, your tunnels do not remove the heat - they simply move it. It's still in the biosphere as a component of an overall increased heat load and a higher energy level. Very minor shifts in oceanic currents and the global thermohaline circulation would absolutely dwarf anything the tunnels could do.

I'd be interested in your heat transfer equations and their scale with respect to the above mentioned currents and circulations. Do you have them posted anywhere on the internet?



Fortunately I am right because they allow the heat to escape to space more efficiently as it did prior to the industrial revolution...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
You still trying to convince me the globe is warming? LOL I repeat, from my comment at 71: "The globe is warming. Human activities contribute."
No, I'm not trying to convince you warming is continuing; I was simply responding to both your statements that the BEST article asked more questions than it answered, and that the BEST study was a "waste of energy".
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I did not "suggest" ceasing studies on global warming. I hope anyone who reads the paragraph I wrote that begins "Beyond monitoring data, soon global warming science will be history" will see it in the context of my whole comment and will get the drift of my meaning, which I will restate in hope of clarifying my meaning in your mind:
"Global warming" studies, i.e. those aimed at proving to the world the cause and occurrence of same GW, will end.
Your direct quote in #71 was, "We don't need any more studies to prove how much warming is human-caused vs. solar caused vs. natural." If I somehow misinterpreted that, mea culpa. But I still disagree with it. Scientists may not need any further convincing, but policymakers certainly do--as evidenced by their continued myopic obeisance to the fossil fuel industry and complete deaf ear/blind eye to the masses who will shoulder the bulk of the costs of that obeisance.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
It is no longer necessary to prove or global warming is occurring and that CO2 is key.
Again, I disagree. So long as the world continues its headlong parade toward an almost certain catastrophe, led by a high-stepping, baton-pumping Grand Marshall funded by ExxonMobil and the Koch brothers, it is absolutely and vitally necessary to continue those studies.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
(Ps. You stole my epiphany line. lol That's not nice.)
I didn't steal it; I borrowed it... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I had one of those many years ago. That's why I stopped denying reality and began studying climate science.

But I do wish you an epiphany, much like the one that BEST's Mueller was subjected to after he started studying the results of his denialist-funded survey--which, by the way, is an excellent reason to keep studying the issue instead of, as you suggested, ceasing such studies.
You still trying to convince me the globe is warming? LOL I repeat, from my comment at 71: "The globe is warming. Human activities contribute."

I did not "suggest" ceasing studies on global warming. I hope anyone who reads the paragraph I wrote that begins "Beyond monitoring data, soon global warming science will be history" will see it in the context of my whole comment and will get the drift of my meaning, which I will restate in hope of clarifying my meaning in your mind:
"Global warming" studies, i.e. those aimed at proving to the world the cause and occurrence of same GW, will end. I think the scientific community and world governments will soon focus climate change science on the next croquet wicket along the path to integrating and solving the global warming puzzle. Data monitoring is key to this phase and will be - for eons maybe. It is no longer necessary to prove or global warming is occurring and that CO2 is key.

(Ps. You stole my epiphany line. lol That's not nice.)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 159 Comments: 19385
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
75. Neapolitan 10:51 AM GMT on January 21, 2013
Thank you for taking time to write that reply. I wish you an epiphany.
Oh, I had one of those many years ago. That's why I stopped denying reality and began studying climate science.

But I do wish you an epiphany, much like the one that BEST's Mueller was subjected to after he started studying the results of his denialist-funded survey--which, by the way, is an excellent reason to keep studying the issue instead of, as you suggested, ceasing such studies.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
75. Neapolitan 10:51 AM GMT on January 21, 2013
Thank you for taking time to write that reply. I wish you an epiphany.

cyclonebuster,
Thanks for the reply. I've known about your funnel with a "t" ideas since you first posted them at wu. Then and now, I think they would cause more harm than good.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 159 Comments: 19385
Quoting NeapolitanFan:

No trend in global temperature in the last decade:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/0 1/gore_bet.png

Scott Armstrong; liar, fraud, "scientific forecaster"

by TheTracker, Wednesday, July 13, 2011

We haven't checked in in some time on Scott Armstrong's "scientific forecast" that global temperatures will remain unchanged for ten years, or his fake "bet" with Al Gore that no warming will occur. After losing eleven of the twelve months of 2010, something Armstrong avoided talking about by simply declining to update his own site, Armstrong, a professor of marketing who styles himself a "scientific forecaster," started to seem just too pathetic to pick on.

The recent La Nina, however, seems to have roused Armstrong from his self-imposed blog stupor long enough to fake the background of his "challenge":


Armstrong has been counting monthly anomalies as "wins" if they are no warmer than 2008, and "losses" (he rarely talks about these) if they are closer to an inflated trend of 0.3C/decade, which he falsely attributes to Gore.

The "bet" has not gone well for Armstrong. But Armstrong has been busy re-writing history. You will notice to the right on the chart above that Armstrong has deleted the first five months of 2008, presumably to disappear the La Nina-influenced depression in temperatures and hide the fact that counting from January 2008 (when the anomaly was -0.3C in UAH 5.3, compared to +0.32C last month -- hey +0.6C warming in just three and a half years!*), Armstrong has lost every single month of his bogus "bet."

La Nina is over, so it's no surprise that the June UAH anomaly of +0.32C is absent from Armstrong's site. I suppose when you've "disappeared" half a year of temperatures from a three-and-a-half year record, ignoring the present is no big deal.

* This is why serious people use moving averages, or at worst, yearly anomalies, not month-to-month fluctuations, to track global warming. To quote myself: "You could set up this bet in a more honest, evenhanded way which might be semi-valid in terms of shedding light on what is happening with our climate. Needless to say, that's not the process Armstrong came up with, which makes it all the more amusing that he has managed to deal himself a losing hand from a stacked deck."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goosegirl1:


Did you consider that the article may have been rejected because it was a re-hash of already known science? One of the criteria for a successful submission is that it be original, or at least a different take on the original study. The purpose of these journals is to present the results of an original study for peer review. IOW, I couldn't rush out write a paper that "gravity makes us stick to the Earth!" and expect it to be published tomorrow- someone already did that.


You bring up a good point William Connolley writes his blog that:

The Watties are criticising the paper for being published in the first issue of a new journal of no known provenance, “Geoinformatics & Geostatistics: An Overview”. And I agree to this extent: BEST would not have published there, had they been able to publish in, say, JGR. Just like no-one publishes in E&E until everyone else has rejected them. But I disagree with the reasoning: the work, I think, is perfectly valid. As I said before. But just as I said before, it isn’t really all that exciting: its really just a new method for constructing a global time series, which agrees with the previous ones
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No trend in global temperature in the last decade:

Member Since: December 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Quoting nymore:



Your respected journal as you say in line number one is what a week old with one article published. How much respect could they have garnered in this time period. It was rejected by a journal with a history over 115 years long. I have another question why not fix it and send it back to JGR after all they are the ones who rejected it. Then you try to bring in a strawman argument about Watts who has nothing to do with JGR or this new journal. It is fun to watch you squirm though.


Did you consider that the article may have been rejected because it was a re-hash of already known science? One of the criteria for a successful submission is that it be original, or at least a different take on the original study. The purpose of these journals is to present the results of an original study for peer review. IOW, I couldn't rush out write a paper that "gravity makes us stick to the Earth!" and expect it to be published tomorrow- someone already did that.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
Quoting cyclonebuster:



Remove the heat and restore the ice... Ya'll with me yet?

Unfortunately, your tunnels do not remove the heat - they simply move it. It's still in the biosphere as a component of an overall increased heat load and a higher energy level. Very minor shifts in oceanic currents and the global thermohaline circulation would absolutely dwarf anything the tunnels could do.

I'd be interested in your heat transfer equations and their scale with respect to the above mentioned currents and circulations. Do you have them posted anywhere on the internet?
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting JupiterKen:
More denialist lies
The sad thing about the article is that the author adamantly refers to trends such as the loss of Arctic sea ice and rising sea levels as "singular events" and implies that they are not trends. That alone destroys his credibility.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting greentortuloni:
Not to be a shill for Coursera, but since UMichigan is a participant I guess this post is OK.

Anywany, there is a free online course, Climate Literacy: Navigating Climate Conversations, being offered this May.

Here is the abstract:

"Climate Literacy tackles the scientific and socio-political dimensions of climate change. This course introduces the basics of the climate system, models and predictions, human and natural impacts, mitigative and adaptive responses, and the evolution of climate policy."

Sounds like it might be interesting (I am too busy unfortunately to cram anything else in.) I have found that Coursera classes are pretty good and range from very hard to very accessible.
Thanks a lot, GT. I signed up. It will be a good complement to my ancient Berkeley BS degree in Conservation of Natural Resources. We can learn a lot on our own, but formal structure in learning really helps one focus and will hopefully help me become more knowledgeable and credible in climate science.

I wonder how many of our resident denialists and cornucopians (technology will fix the problem - it always has in the past!) are interested in learning about climate issues from a respected university's on-line education program?
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Tunnels for you, tunnels for me, tunnels will set the world free!

:)






You are so CORRECT my friend......
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting JupiterKen:
More denialist lies

Link


So tell us JupiterKen how does stagnate warming cause this?








Fact is it doesn't and it can't....










...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting TWEMoran:
Thanks for the kind words.

The demise of Arctic sea ice has held my attention for the past few years. I have no suggestions as to what could be done to alleviate the situation within a time frame that would be meaningful.

What I fear is that in less than a lustrum we will lose the perennial ice cap that has been in place through mankind's civilized history & that the results will shortly thereafter will make any organized response futile.

If the energy now being used annually to melt Arctic ice, were instead used to heating an ice free Arctic Ocean it would be enough to raise the uppermost meter of the ocean by .7C. This pulse of heat will be added to every year & additional heat from albedo changes and increases in GHGs will build on this.

I have no idea how NH weather patterns will react to this new source of sensible heat. I assume that additional moisture in the atmosphere will multiply CO2's effects & that the GIS will retreat far more rapidly than has been forecast.

Simple math taking annual ice loss and latent heat of fusion into account seems to preclude other outcomes. I'd really like to be shown another possible scenario - this one is far too bleak.

Terry



Remove the heat and restore the ice... Ya'll with me yet?

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Thanks. Looks interesting as does a lot of the info at the parent site including links to the two previous National Climate Assessment Reports - 2000 and 2009.

Says public comment on this draft report will be open till April 12. Okey dokey.

"Following extensive review by the National Academies of Sciences and by the public, this report will be revised by the NCADAC and, after additional review, will then be submitted to the Federal Government for consideration in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) Report. For more information on the NCA process and background, previous assessments and other NCA information, please explore the NCA web-pages. The NCA is being conducted under the auspices of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 and is being organized and administered by the Global Change Research Program."

Could there be hope at the end of the funnel?


Funnel with a T...... That is the only hope....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Neo and Rookie,
My apologies for addressing you both at once.

I first stepped foot into Dr. Rood's blog a year ago and asked the question, "When are you gonna start talking about solutions?"

The globe is warming. Human activities contribute to that. And the pieces needed to put the solution to this puzzle together go far beyond that. Fossil fuels will not disappear from use any time soon because human survival now depends on them. We use rare earth metals and uranium. Humans need jobs and food and the earth needs to be protected. The big picture, the Earth and Sky, the economics, the global energy demand and use by a burgeoning population, that's what gets left out when AGWists point their fingers at this one or that one - "denialists," "big energy," whatever. Waste of energy. Have you ever listened to anyone who had their finger pointed in your face? I doubt it. The gesture makes most people mad. I know it makes me mad. Angry people don't hear a thing. They usually walk out the door or away from the table. Unless they lose control and punch your lights out.

I suppose you both think you are doing what is needed by pushing the climate science and AGW. That is not what this Earth and its peoples need. They need a new and non-polluting energy source. We have a couple and the technology's been there for decades. But couldn't there be something more? Of course there could.

Beyond monitoring data, soon global warming science will be history. We don't need any more studies to prove how much warming is human-caused vs. solar caused vs. natural. All that is needed now is data gathering. Monitoring. Improve these. Put research dollars to work backing geoscientists, physicists, biochemists, engineers, inventors - those who have the brains to come up with answers this world needs. Improve solar and wind technology for starters. Put money into new energy research not more and more and more studies to prove a point that's already known. Heck, Dr. Rood can always have a job teaching the history of global warming science. I know "climate change" is PC now, but I'm not real good with rules.

Of course I know what Koch Industries does but I would not describe it with hatred or vilify it in any way. And that's the problem I see. Hatred. Hatred of those who control the gathering and distribution of the world's energy. Why hate? Because you are dependent? I'm guessing it will be private industry, and yes, energy concerns, who come up with the answer that will help mankind because... there is an answer.

I'm going to change my question of a year ago and ask "When will the bickering stop and mankind allow itself to come together and create what is needed?"

Ps. I have no more to say about the paper except it's a good example of wasted human energy.



Correct Barefootontherocks time is up.......I have what we need and have been telling them that for years....Problem is nothing will be done until it effects them we are like the frog in the pot of hot water.....


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Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting JupiterKen:
More denialist lies

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Well, either lies, or utter ignorance. I won't delve into details--it's been covered thoroughly here, among many other places--but the bottom line is, even according to that whack graphic, temperatures continue to rise in line with FAR, SAR, TAR, and AF4 projections. At the low end of projections, true, but that's because of the historic La Nina going on. Bottom line: denialists can't claim "warming has stopped" when it's rising in line with projected increases. (Well, they can, I suppose, but they only serve to drive themselves deeper into oblivion. Which, on the whole, is probably a good thing for the planet.)

Silly denialists. Tsk, tsk...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
More denialist lies

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not to be a shill for Coursera, but since UMichigan is a participant I guess this post is OK.

Anywany, there is a free online course, Climate Literacy: Navigating Climate Conversations, being offered this May.

Here is the abstract:

"Climate Literacy tackles the scientific and socio-political dimensions of climate change. This course introduces the basics of the climate system, models and predictions, human and natural impacts, mitigative and adaptive responses, and the evolution of climate policy."

Sounds like it might be interesting (I am too busy unfortunately to cram anything else in.) I have found that Coursera classes are pretty good and range from very hard to very accessible.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.