# Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Share
Modeling Summary and A Change in the Weather:
 By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 1:41 AM GMT on October 05, 2012 +12
Modeling Summary and A Change in the Weather: Models, Water, and Temperature (9)

In this entry, I am doing a first summary of my modeling series, and exercising my habit of discussing a paper of special interest or importance. For those who came in late, here is the Introduction to the series, and the previous entry. All of entries in the series are linked at the end.

Doing Science with Models 1.6: I have tried to demystify the use of models in science and climate science in several ways. Here is the series of ideas that I have tried to line up.

1) Models are everywhere, and we use them all of the time. I introduced examples of commonly used models such as ledger sheets and building plans. In fact, whenever we are faced with a new problem, we naturally look to models for possible solutions. Most commonly that model is – do I have experience in a previous situation that helps me in this situation? That might be followed with - do I have friends who have relevant experience? Can I hire expertise? When we are faced with no experience of a situation; that is, we have no model, then we are thrown into a situation where we might have difficulty understanding impacts, risks, and what to do. Whether or not we explicitly recognize it, models are part of human thinking and problem solving. (Models are Everywhere, Ledgers, Graphics, and Carvings)

2) The arithmetic that we use to figure out how much money we have, the budget equation, is a model.

Today’s Money = Yesterday’s Money + Money Gained – Money Spent

Some of the models that we use are mathematical and provide us with a way to quantify things that are important to us. (Balancing the Budget)

3) We have become comfortable with coding models on computers. With the spread of computers in the past 20 years, we, for example, use computers to balance our checkbooks and plan our budgets. We enter numbers and words into forms and press some buttons, and seconds later, we have categorized accounting of our income and expenses. (Ledgers, Graphics, and Carvings)

4) The same form of the budget equation that we use to balance our checkbook can be used to make an accounting of the energy of the Earth.

Today’s Energy = Yesterday’s Energy + Energy Gained – Energy Lost.

Therefore, if we can measure energy, sources of energy, and loses of energy, we can make a quantitative accounting. (Balancing the Budget)

5) Point of view is important. The accounting of the Earth’s energy, hence a description of the climate, depends on your point of view. If you were sitting on Mars, then you might only be interested in the energy that comes to and leaves the Earth. If you are a person on the surface of the Earth, you need to know the energy in the atmosphere, the land, the ocean, and the ice. Therefore you need budget equations for each of these components of the Earth’s climate. This is like having several energy accounts. The transfers between accounts appear as exchanges: loses to one account and gains to others. (Point of View)

6) Complexity arises because there are many energy accounts and many ways to transfer energy from one account to another. Even though every energy exchange might be simple, when we put all of the exchanges together the total system is complex. Energy might collect in one place, for example evaporated water in the tropical atmosphere, and it might be lost and deposited some place else, for example ice sheets in Greenland. There is the possibility of transfer of large amounts of energy between these collections of energy. (Looking Under the Cloak of Complexity)

7) The Earth’s climate is constrained by the processes that govern the transfer of energy from one account to another. Well-known rules, or laws, govern the way that energy is transferred. They are strictly and precisely defined. The Earth’s climate can be quantified by accounting for the energy. Because of the laws that govern energy transfer, we can in principle make credible estimates of the Earth’s climate in the future. (The Free Market and the Climate Model)

8) It takes time for energy to move around to the different energy accounts. For example, a lot of energy can be stored in the ocean for long periods of time. Long? Compared to what? Long compared to the atmosphere and perhaps compared to the life times of humans. Ice sheets have had life times of hundreds of thousands of years, and they represent the accumulation of many years of energy transport. (Looking Under the Cloak of Complexity)

If we use this framework to think about climate, climate models, and climate change, then when we add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere what are we changing? From the point of view of the human on the surface of the Earth, we are changing the amount of time that the energy from the Sun is stored near the surface of the Earth. Some of this energy shows up as an increase in temperature at the surface. Some warms the ocean. Some changes the water budget and the weather. Ultimately, some makes it way back to outer space, but not until after it causes a set of changes important to the person on the surface of the Earth.

Going forward, I will explore more deeply complexity and how we can manage this complexity to make and interpret predictions.

Interesting Research: A Change in the Weather ? - This past summer saw a record low in Arctic sea ice. (nice blog in Washington Post) The previous record low was in 2007. There are those who dismiss this as a record low of sea ice because it is from “satellite data,” which are only about 30 years of observations. But I would argue that we can make a pretty convincing argument that these are record lows for, well, thousands of years.

The paper I want to write about is “The Recent Shift in Early Summer Arctic Circulation,” by James Overland and co-authors. This paper documents a “shift” in the Arctic climate that has persisted through the past 6 years (2007 – 2012). This shift is in the atmospheric circulation, and it is described as an increase in atmospheric surface pressure on the North American side of the Arctic and a decrease in pressure on the Siberian side. (To get this perspective, look down on a map of the Earth from above.) This circulation pattern has been especially strong in June.

A consequence of this circulation pattern is that there is flow of air from the south along the date line in the Pacific Ocean, essentially through the Bering Strait into the Arctic. This pushes sea ice northward, and brings warm air towards the North Pole. This contributes to rapid melting of sea ice. To the point of complexity, this movement of warm air into the Arctic is not the only contributor to the melting ice. During years of extreme melting, there has been reduction in cloudiness, allowing more Sun to get to the surface. There has also been more heat transport by the ocean. Finally, ice melting has been accelerated by mixing of warm(ish) water from the MacKenzie River farther into the ocean. Rather than each of these processes being viewed as perhaps “the cause” of enhanced sea ice melting, all of these processes should be viewed as a system, where they all add up to more melting.

James Overland and co-authors label this a “shift.” It is unarguably a persistent pattern, and the authors present statistical evidence that such a pattern has not been present in more than 60 years of observations. The question of whether this is a shift to a new pattern that will persist going forward remains open. One way to study this is to study whether or not known changes to the surface might cause these patterns in the atmosphere. Of special interest, of course, have the changes in sea ice initiated a change in circulation that has accelerated the loss of sea ice? Overland and co-authors also point to the possibility that the large decrease of snow cover in late spring and early summer could potentially enhance the circulation pattern. Such persistent circulation patterns are one of the most difficult phenomena for climate and weather models to represent.

Figure 1: Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. Departure of Snow Cover in June 2012 from a 30 year, 1971-2000, average. The legend is percent difference, with oranges less than zero and blues greater than zero. Make your own maps here.

As a final remark I want to return to the idea of whether or not the melting of the sea ice might force an atmospheric circulation that then contributes to the melting of more sea ice. In my series on modeling and my discussion of complexity, I talked about how billions of simple transactions in millions of accounts can come together to represent a very complex system. One of the characteristics of complex systems is the presence of processes that once they occur, they amplify themselves. In this case, could a change in sea ice cause a change in the atmosphere that amplifies the change in sea ice? This type of reinforcing behavior, or positive feedback, contributes to complexity in a fundamentally different way than a damping or negative feedback. In a damped system, a change that decreased sea ice would cause a change that would increase sea ice to maintain a balance. It is important to recognize the difference between a damped system and a system in a state of balance. A balanced state, when perturbed, might find a new balance. Or, it might dance around all over the place until a new balance is found. Most of the evidence is that the Earth’s climate is not a damped system, but a balanced system. As we change it by increasing the temperature at the surface, we should expect it to bounce around looking for a new balance.

r

Models, Water, and Temperature

Models are Not All Wet: Series Introduction

Models are Everywhere

Ledgers, Graphics, and Carvings

Balancing the Budget

Point of View

Looking Under the Cloak of Complexity

The Free Market and the Climate Model

 Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 1 - 51

 1. iceagecoming 2:14 AM GMT on October 05, 2012 Interesting article!seems to be the start of a cool October.000SXUS75 KTFX 050112RERTFXRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT710 PM MDT THU OCT 4 2012MTZ008>015-044>055-050710-...RECORD COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 4 IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SETDILLON AIRPORT 16 19 1985WISDOM 3 8 1964Link Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 977
 2. OldLeatherneck 2:15 AM GMT on October 05, 2012 Dr. Rood,As usual, a fascinating and very concise analysis of how the current change in the arctic are influencing weather patterns theoughout the entire Northern Hemisphere.In your expert and professional opinion, have the dramatic changes in the arctic, during 2012, been significant enough to cause meaurable changes in the Polar Jet Stream and weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere in 2013?If so, how much change is required to show the linkage betweeen the 2012 arctic events and the 2012 events? Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
 3. Some1Has2BtheRookie 2:27 AM GMT on October 05, 2012 Quoting iceagecoming:Interesting article!seems to be the start of a cool October.000SXUS75 KTFX 050112RERTFXRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT710 PM MDT THU OCT 4 2012MTZ008>015-044>055-050710-...RECORD COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 4 IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SETDILLON AIRPORT 16 19 1985WISDOM 3 8 1964LinkInteresting picture. Higher latitudes still experience all 4 seasons. This should be something worthy of writing home about. I would include pictures. The one you posted is nice. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4715
 4. Neapolitan 11:32 AM GMT on October 05, 2012 Quoting iceagecoming:Interesting article!seems to be the start of a cool October.That's chilly, alright. (Dillon's a great place, sitting nearly a mile high at the northern edge of Yellowstone; I spent a memorable five weeks there on a construction project in the late 70's. Unbelievable trout fishing.) But I don't know that I'd try to use United States daily temperature records to make the case for "the start of a cool October"; after all, there have been 335 record daily high or high minimums so far this month, and just 141 record daily low or low maximums. (For the year: 56,578 record highs, and 10,807 record lows.)Just thought I'd mention: it was raining very early this morning (1:53 AM local) in Barrow, Alaska. Raining. Can you imagine that? Liquid water falling from the sky inside the Arctic Circle? In America's northernmost town? At night? In October?BTW, here's the NCEP global temperature anomalies map. Note the smallish blob of blue over the northwestern U.S. That's your Dillon (and surrounding areas) cold record. I can't speak for anyone else, but there seems to be a lot more greens and yellows in the Northern Hemisphere than there are blues and purples. (Same with the Southern Hemisphere, for that matter.)Cool October? When? Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13102
 5. Patrap 12:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2012 Sept Co2 is in391.07ppmco2now.org Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 409 Comments: 123880
 7. Xulonn 4:36 PM GMT on October 05, 2012 It seems that iceagecoming's view is a bit narrow. He/she obviously is desperately trying to use a single event to support a hopelessly inadequate denialist meme. In addition to Neapolitan's GLOBAL temperature anomalies map, here is a bit more on snow in a vastly expanded perspective contrasted to ice's statistically insignificant single snowstorm and temperature event.From Tamino's Blog: There is a clear, and statistically significant, overall decline in snow cover. In spite of what we often hear from the fake skeptics — who love to bellow about any big snowfall (even when it hasn’t happened yet) as though it were disproof of global warming — the actual trend in snow cover is one of decline.More important, the declining trend is strongest when it really counts — when incoming sunlight is strongest during summer. Snow is very highly reflective, and when present tends to reflect much of the incoming solar energy back to space, which has a cooling influence on the climate. As snow cover declines, so does this cooling influence.In fact the downward trend in snow cover is strongest during the month of June, when solar input is also strongest: Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1020
 8. Patrap 1:01 AM GMT on October 06, 2012 Arctic Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise May Pose Imminent Threat To Island Nations, Climate Scientist SaysBy James Gerken Posted: 10/05/2012 4:39 pm EDTLow-lying island nations threatened by rising sea levels this century could see the disastrous consequences of climate change far sooner than expected, according to one of the world's leading climate scientists.In the wake of last month's discovery that the extent of Arctic sea ice coverage hit a record low this year, climate scientist Michael Mann told the Guardian that "Island nations that have considered the possibility of evacuation at some point, like Tuvalu, may have to be contending those sort of decisions within the matter of a decade or so."Mann, who is the director of Pennsylvania State University's Earth System Science Center, said that current melting trends show sea ice is "declining faster than the models predict.""The models have typically predicted that will not happen for decades but the measurements that are coming in tell us it is already happening so once again we are decades ahead of schedule," Mann told the Guardian.This year's record melting, which occurred under more "normal" conditions than the previous record set in 2007, left Arctic sea ice at a minimum "nearly 50 percent lower than the average ... for the years 1979-2000," according to Climate Central.Rapidly decreasing sea ice suggests that the melting of polar ice sheets may occur more rapidly than previously predicted. Mann explained to the Guardian that "we [will] really start to see sea level rises accelerate," as the Greenland and the west Antarctic ice sheets disappear. Unlike with the melting of sea ice, these ice sheets would introduce vast quantities of water into the world's oceans, making them "critical from the standpoint of sea level rise," according to Mann.The ongoing rise in average global temperatures, which has accelerated Arctic ice melt, has been largely attributed to the burning of fossil fuels and the resultant increase in greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.For the most vulnerable island nations, like the Maldives, Kiribati, the Torres Strait Islands and many others, rising seas will bring significant coastal erosion and saltwater contamination of limited freshwater supplies. Environmental group Oceana recently noted that nations dependent upon the sea will face food security threats as greater temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increase ocean acidity and put marine life at risk.Despite the increasingly clear picture painted by scientific observations and climate modeling, "There's a huge gap between what is understood by the scientific community and what is known by the public," according to NASA scientist James Hansen. Recent polling suggests that as much as 35 percent of the U.S. population and 37 percent of the British public remain unconvinced of the scientific reality of climate change. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 409 Comments: 123880
 12. Neapolitan 12:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2012 More reasons that America's denialists have such a difficult time coping with scientific reality (as demonstrated most recently here by Mr. YouTube):Cross-national comparison of the presence of climate scepticism in the print media in six countries, 2007-10Previous academic research on climate scepticism has tended to focus more on the way it has been organized, its tactics and its impact on policy outputs than on its prevalence in the media. Most of the literature has centred on the USA, where scepticism first appeared in an organized and politically effective form. This letter contrasts the way climate scepticism in its different forms is manifested in the print media in the USA and five other countries (Brazil, China, France, India and the UK), in order to gain insight into how far the US experience of scepticism is replicated in other countries. It finds that news coverage of scepticism is mostly limited to the USA and the UK; that there is a strong correspondence between the political leaning of a newspaper and its willingness to quote or use uncontested sceptical voices in opinion pieces; and that the type of sceptics who question whether global temperatures are warming are almost exclusively found in the US and UK newspapers. Sceptics who challenge the need for robust action to combat climate change also have a much stronger presence in the media of the same two countries.The number of articles containing sceptical voices as a % of the total number of articles covering climate change or global warming, 200-10.Of course, it goes without saying that Fox "News"--aka the Official Public Relations Arm of Big Oil and the Right Wing--is far ahead of all other networks in running unchallenged and indefensible blather from climate science denialists, though it should also be noted that nearly all organizations here do it, even those in the so-called (and non-existent) "liberal" media.What a shame. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13102
 13. Some1Has2BtheRookie 3:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2012 Bob Wallace, if you are still here. THIS is what we are facing -"Broun, a medical doctor, calls himself a scientist in the video and chairs the House Science Committee's panel on investigations and oversight."Source - with video Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4715
 14. pintada 3:29 PM GMT on October 06, 2012 The new FAO food price index is out! Hurray!So ... (Most of you have seen the background mechanism):The Arctic ice cap is now essentially melted  - (proven observations both by satellite and ship)The fact that it is melted has caused the jet stream to change shape - (again observations not models)As luck would have it, it now blows from the south across the midwest more than not - (observations, not models)Because of the change in the jet stream, last summer the midwest was very dry - (everyone that cared to pay attention knows this)The drought in the midwest reduced the corn and soybean crop by about 25%.The drought (probably caused by the same jet stream phenomenon) reduced the Russian wheat crop apparently by 55% A near failure of the Indian monsoon has cut rice production there.Now, look at this study (again, some of you have seen it). As you can see, when the FAO food price index goes above 210 we are nearly guaranteed to see food riots.  The Arab spring riots happened when the price index was ~230 and the food riots of 2008 happened when the food price index was about 220.The FAO food price index is now at 216 (this is the September number the October number will be out on 11/8/12).  If we get extreme food prices with an index of 220 or more, it will probably happen in the spring, and from the above I think it is a near certainty.  Obama could make it less likely by stopping the production of corn ethanol, but that would cause an increase in gas prices.  He certainly will not do so until after the election, if at all.Few people are blessed (or cursed) to live at the end of a great civilization, and we are the first generation to see a global civilization fall. You and I, my friend are among those so gifted. It isn’t so scary, now that I’ve seen it begin. The Italians survived the fall of Rome, the Chinese made the transition from emperor to Mao and then into the modern regime. Whether historians will place the modern era at the point when peak oil was reached in the United States (1972), or this summer which is the first summer of the new normal weather pattern is not important.We face a perfect storm of debt, environmental overshoot, immorality, and corruption. And our response? Paid professional liars and the toady parrots that follow them publish nonsense and the stupid and gullible believe it.Is it evil to publish nonsense? Naw. Its just the natural process of overshoot and collapse written by a species on the way out. What would a lemming write as he and his friends run into the sea? Member Since: July 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
 15. Some1Has2BtheRookie 4:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2012 Hello, Ossqss."....check their performance with respect to our current conditions..."Scientist, in the late 20th century, used early models to predict that the Arctic Ocean would have ice free summers that would start around the year 2100. Due to observational evidence, all, but a few, scientist now believe that the Arctic Ocean will have ice free summers as soon as the year 2040. Some think that it may be as soon as 2014. You are correct, Ossqss, the previous models did not accurately predict what is being observed today. The same is true for the Greenland Ice Sheets and the Antarctic Ice Sheets. We are observing a much more rapid decay, to these regions, than what previous models predicted. I no longer think that their collapse will happen after anywhere from 300 years to 1,000 years from now. Do you?Your ability to absorb new data, and to comprehend what it means, has fallen to even lower levels than before, Ossqss. .... Too many BLTs?Speaking of food, here is some food for thought for you, Ossqss. EVEN IF your father, Apollo, is the donor of all the climate disasters we are beginning to see now, how do the anthropogenic greenhouse gases not capture and retain more of Apollo's gifts to us? Until our capacity to store these gifts becomes more than we can store? Share the wealth, Ossqss. Give some of Apollo's bounty back out into space where it does not overload our storage capacity for Apollo's gifts to us. Praise Apollo for the gifts to us and then honor Apollo by allowing other worlds to enjoy Apollo's gifts. Quit trying to hoard all of Apollo's gifts. This is, after all, a large solar system. Apollo rules over all of Apollo's solar system. Correct? Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4715
 18. RevElvis 3:19 AM GMT on October 07, 2012 Arctic Ice Melt, Psychopathic Capitalism and the Corporate Media Truth-Out.orgAs well as global warming from carbon dioxide (CO2), there is the additional risk of warming from methane (CH4) being released into the atmosphere. Huge quantities of methane are locked up in land permafrost. But even vaster quantities exist as methane hydrates frozen below the shallow waters of the Arctic Ocean's continental shelves. Naam warns: If even 10% of the northern permafrost's buried carbon were released as methane, it would have a heating effect over the next decade equivalent to ten times all human greenhouse emissions to date, and over the next century equivalent to roughly four times all human greenhouse emissions to date.That's just the methane on land, trapped in the permafrost. If the methane hydrates buried on the Arctic continental shelves were to be released, that would have a warming effect equivalent to hundreds of times the total human carbon emissions to date.Although Namm says "we are probably not in danger of a methane time bomb going off any time soon", recent observations show that Arctic methane is being released into the atmosphere. And there is scientific controversy over how serious and how rapid this release is. Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
 20. iceagecoming 12:24 AM GMT on October 08, 2012 000SXUS73 KEAX 072124RERMCIRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO421 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT THE KANSAS CITY INTERNATIONALAIRPORT...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE KANSAS CITYINTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 DEGREESSET IN 2000.\$\$GARecord cold October day across NSW and VICBen McBurney, Sunday October 7, 2012 - 13:49 EDT Thick cloud and a cold air mass associated with a low covered most of VIC and NSW yesterday, bringing a record cold day to some locations.In New South Wales, Bega on the South Coast only climbed to 12.9 degrees, which equaled its previous record set in 1994. Denliquin in the Riverina broke its all time October record, climbing to just 11.2 degrees, smashing its previous record by 1 degree set in 2005. In Victoria, every location recorded below average temperatures, with some places 11 degrees cooler than their October mean. Shepparton in the state's north reached just 11.6 degrees, its coldest October day on record.DENVER Sunday started out very cold. But, no record. The record was 23 degrees and Denver dropped to only 26 degrees at DIA.Weather Underground midday recap for Saturday, October 06, 2012. ... low temperatures were seen at West Yellowstone, Montana with a low temperature of 6 degrees. ...... a record low temperature of 32 degrees was set at Eugene Oregon ...Weather Forecast Sioux City, IA | Sioux City Weather | Wundergroundwww.wunderground.com/ Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 977
 22. RevElvis 2:53 AM GMT on October 08, 2012 Economic Decline Not Enough to Reduce Planet-Warming EmissionsLiveScience.comNations hoping to curb global warming face a quandary: Economic growth means more planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions.On the flip side, economic decline means a drop in greenhouse gas emissions as consumers tighten their belts, factories slow down and less money is spent.A new analysis of data from 1960 to 2008 indicates during economic decline carbon dioxide emissions decline at about half the rate at which they grow when an economy is booming. "In a sense, economic decline only undoes a little more than half of the carbon dioxide emissions that economic growth adds,” said Richard York, a professor of sociology and environmental studies at the University of Oregon who conducted this study. Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
 25. Neapolitan 10:56 AM GMT on October 08, 2012 Quoting iceagecoming:000SXUS73 KEAX 072124RERMCIRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO421 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT THE KANSAS CITY INTERNATIONALAIRPORT...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE KANSAS CITYINTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 DEGREESSET IN 2000.\$\$Fascinating.SXAK79 PABR 061614RERBRWRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BARROW AK814 AM AKDT SAT OCT 6 2012...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET IN BARROW TODAY...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS SET IN BARROW TODAY BREAKING THE PREVIOUS HIGH OF 39 DEGREES SET IN 1925.\$\$GMS OCT 2012Your turn. I guess...It is definitely cold in the nation's midsection. Of course, that's really the only deeply anomalously cool place in the entire globe, so despite the record lows seen in the region--and over which Anthony and His Mindless Drones have been endlessly salivating the past few days--it looks like the planet is maintaining its fossil fuel-driven warmth. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13102
 28. Patrap 4:20 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 We are back.: ) Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 409 Comments: 123880
 29. Patrap 4:21 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 Twas a bad keystroke.It happen's. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 409 Comments: 123880
 30. iceagecoming 5:08 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 Really, how could that be such a hot topic?Should be cold in Canada?TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS..." Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 977
 32. pintada 5:32 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 Quoting RevElvis:Economic Decline Not Enough to Reduce Planet-Warming EmissionsLiveScience.comNations hoping to curb global warming face a quandary: Economic growth means more planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions.On the flip side, economic decline means a drop in greenhouse gas emissions as consumers tighten their belts, factories slow down and less money is spent.A new analysis of data from 1960 to 2008 indicates during economic decline carbon dioxide emissions decline at about half the rate at which they grow when an economy is booming. "In a sense, economic decline only undoes a little more than half of the carbon dioxide emissions that economic growth adds,” said Richard York, a professor of sociology and environmental studies at the University of Oregon who conducted this study.Hows that correlation problem working out for you BobWallace?? Member Since: July 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
 33. robodave 6:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 Quoting pintada:Hows that correlation problem working out for you BobWallace??Actually, what Bob argued was that we've hit our peak, not that economic growth means zero Co2 emissions from hereon forward. He would agree that economic growth produces Co2 emissions, but he would also state that they won't go over their previous peak and they might in fact be on a downward trend. What this study you linked seems to show is that economic recessions don't compensate for economic booms in terms of the emissions of greenhouse gases. This is true because emissions are twice as large in a growth cycle as when they're in a depressed cycle. This can be true whether we hit our peak already or not, so it's orthogonal or independent of that metric.As for whether the whole world has hit its peak, I doubt that. It could be that we're close to hitting it, but we may not for a while. It depends on what the developing economies do. Member Since: August 9, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 147
 34. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 < Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 50601
 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 50601
 36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 < Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 50601
 37. pintada 9:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 Quoting robodave:Actually, what Bob argued was that we've hit our peak, not that economic growth means zero Co2 emissions from hereon forward. He would agree that economic growth produces Co2 emissions, but he would also state that they won't go over their previous peak and they might in fact be on a downward trend. What this study you linked seems to show is that economic recessions don't compensate for economic booms in terms of the emissions of greenhouse gases. This is true because emissions are twice as large in a growth cycle as when they're in a depressed cycle. This can be true whether we hit our peak already or not, so it's orthogonal or independent of that metric.As for whether the whole world has hit its peak, I doubt that. It could be that we're close to hitting it, but we may not for a while. It depends on what the developing economies do.What you are saying is all good, RoboDave.My problem comes from the fact that he has yet to admit that since we get 95% of our production of goods and services from emitting CO2, any increase in production will obviously increase emissions.To decouple CO2 emission amounts from the volume of the production of goods and services in the US the percentage of energy derived from fossil fuels would have to be closer to 5% than 95%.The existence of his peak is something that is legitimately debatable and I can respect that idea even though I disagree.To deny the obvious facts that the article explains (and i tried to explain) however is unacceptable. Member Since: July 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
 39. iceagecoming 10:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 Fear Not Keep, our ancient ancestors fine tuned they minds and skills in the darkest depths of the post-Eemian iceage. Good ole Neanderthal.Middle PaleolithicGeologic temperature records indicate two intense ice ages dated around 650000 ybp and 450000 ybp, these would have presented any humans outside tropics unprecedented difficulties. Indeed, fossils from this period are very few, and little can be said of human habitats in Eurasia during this period. The few finds are of Homo antecessor and Homo heidelbergensis. Lantian Man in China.Homo neanderthal, with his Mousterian technology emerged, in areas from Europe to western Asia, after this and continued to be the dominant group of humans in Europe and Middle East up until 70000-40000 ybp. Peking man has also been dated to this period. During Eemian Stage humans probably (see f.e. Wolf Cave) spread where ever their technology and skills allowed, Sahara dried up forming a difficult area for peoples to cross.The birth of first modern humans (Homo sapiens idaltu) has been dated to be between 200000-130000 BP (see:Mitochondrial Eve, Single-origin hypothesis), to the coldest phase of Riss glaciation. Remains of Aterian culture appear on the archaeological evidence.Stay thirsty my friend.:> Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 977
 40. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:27 PM GMT on October 08, 2012 me Quoting iceagecoming:Fear Not Keep, our ancient ancestors fine tuned they minds and skills in the darkest depths of the post-Eemian iceage. Good ole Neanderthal.Middle PaleolithicGeologic temperature records indicate two intense ice ages dated around 650000 ybp and 450000 ybp, these would have presented any humans outside tropics unprecedented difficulties. Indeed, fossils from this period are very few, and little can be said of human habitats in Eurasia during this period. The few finds are of Homo antecessor and Homo heidelbergensis. Lantian Man in China.Homo neanderthal, with his Mousterian technology emerged, in areas from Europe to western Asia, after this and continued to be the dominant group of humans in Europe and Middle East up until 70000-40000 ybp. Peking man has also been dated to this period. During Eemian Stage humans probably (see f.e. Wolf Cave) spread where ever their technology and skills allowed, Sahara dried up forming a difficult area for peoples to cross.The birth of first modern humans (Homo sapiens idaltu) has been dated to be between 200000-130000 BP (see:Mitochondrial Eve, Single-origin hypothesis), to the coldest phase of Riss glaciation. Remains of Aterian culture appear on the archaeological evidence.Stay thirsty my friend.:>what ever it is to be it will be together will it be Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 50601
 41. Xulonn 1:21 AM GMT on October 09, 2012 For those who aren't aware - from the Wunderground menu "Climate" tab:Wunderground's Climate Change Position:Earth's climate is warming. This time, humans are mostly responsible, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action. Wunderground management and staff includes climate and weather experts like Ph.D. Meteorologists Jeff Masters and Ricky Rood, and also Angela Fritz, who has a M.S. Atmospheric Science.I am posting this to try to reach the lurkers and AGW/CC awareness newbies who stumble upon this site. I come here to learn about and discuss climate change science - to try to understand that incredibly complex field and it's potential impact on human civilization. There is a core group of participants in the discussions here who have varying levels of education and knowledge, and who are aware of and accept the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW/CC). There is also a cadre of what many of us call "climate change denialists" here who come here to spout off about things like a the rash of low temp records such as is happening in the central U.S. right now, while ignoring the fact much of the rest of the world is above average in daily temperatures. (Thanks, Neapolitan for your frequent "global" temperature anomaly maps).Another current denialist "gotcha" is the [modern] record areal extent of Antarctic sea ice during the current freeze season down there. Those of us who accept AGW/CC as a scientific fact recognize that this anomaly is occurring, but search for explanations by the scientists who study such things rather than shouting loudly that this proves that GW isn't happening. (See my next post for more on this subject.)I find it sadly amusing to watch the frantic flailing of the AGW/CC denialists who pop up periodically here at the WU climate blog, but I am committed to rebutting true skepticism and answering legitimate questions when my limited knowledge permits me to do so. One of the things that attracted me to this site was the incredible patience displayed by some of the regulars who are grounded in real science, and who repeatedly rebut the persistent "stuck in a rut" commenters here - posters who claim to be scientific skeptics, but repeatedly post the same set of non-science, pseudo-science, and discredited science references.And the struggle to find and share scientific truth continues... Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1020
 42. Xulonn 2:15 AM GMT on October 09, 2012 Quoting Tomball:Well maybe....Xulonn, you can help me. With a increasing warming globe we are now seeing, will they poles or the equator regions warm up faster? Thank you in advance for your response. I appreciate you asking a question in such a civil manner, Tomball, since I currently view you as a skeptic, but not a denialist like many here. There are things that the denialists say here and elsewhere that could cause skepticism, but when you look past their rants and really peer down into the true science of AGW/CC, the view is quite alarming. In short, the poles are expected to warm first, with the Arctic leading the way - which is what we are currently seeing, and at a mind-bogglingly rapid rate. Most of the dry land on the earth, which is where most of we humans live, is in the northern hemisphere. Our weather is driven by the difference between Arctic and tropical temperatures. As the Arctic to tropics temperature differential decreases (the rise in average temperature in the tropics is much slower than in the arctic), there will probably be significant changes in climate and weather. The details of climate change symptoms and dynamics is a very complex subject, and includes land, sea and atmospheric components and interactions. I don't want to get in over my head, but I will say that if I could be a young man again, I would love to study under a teacher of systems modeling like Dr. Rood. If, as an amateur, you dig into the subject, it becomes so overwhelmingly complex that you just want to give up and back out. The antics of the denialists and their simplistic, one-dimensional associations is to my mind, laughable. However, it is often the reaction of those who cannot deal with complexity, ambiguity, uncertainty and potentially dire outcomes. The current anomaly of Antarctic sea-ice increase to a modern record areal extent has yet to be understood. However, it would be naive in the extreme to cite this as "poof" or even "strong evidence" that AGW/CC is not occurring.Try these words in Google: "global warming pole equator difference " (without the quotation marks). You'll find a wealth of information from many websites, including some based on news and commentary, and many real science web sites related to various scientific disciplines. Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1020
 44. iceagecoming 4:31 AM GMT on October 09, 2012 Early season snow covers top peaks in the northeastWEATHER AND CLIMATE OCTOBER 8, 2012BY: BRENT MCGRADYLink Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 977
 45. iceagecoming 4:34 AM GMT on October 09, 2012 Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 977
 47. DelWeather 1:24 PM GMT on October 09, 2012 Dr. Rood,This is a very nice description of what constitutes a model, with climate models as the example. I will make it required reading for my physics and chemistry students, as we extensively discuss our work in terms of models. My physics class also creates computational models of systems using Python. One thing I also do with my students is to distinguish between models and the representations that are parts of the models. I would call the equation that is used in the ledger a representation. The actual table that is the ledger itself is another representation. A graph made from ledger entries would be a third representation. The model is the overall description of your finances, including the simplifying assumptions (e.g. no interest earned in your example... and that's a pretty good assumption these days!), estimations and approximations. Where do you draw the line between representations and models? It depends on what you are trying to chunk together into a model and what you are trying to parse into separate models. I can see climate models being pretty huge with lots of different representations.Anyway, thanks for the primer. This is so well written! Member Since: October 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
 48. NeapolitanFan 1:29 PM GMT on October 09, 2012 This increasing global temperature is freezing the US: Member Since: December 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
 50. Neapolitan 3:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2012 Quoting NeapolitanFan:This increasing global temperature is freezing the US:Yeah, it's been colder than normal. That is, in the United States. That is, this week. Meanwhile, nearly all the rest of the planet continues to see relatively balmy weather:...and even here in the good old U.S. of A., temperatures will be well above normal next week:BTW: even with the current cold records thrown into the mix, for 2012 as a whole, high records in the U.S. have outnumbered low records by 56,725 to 12,271. Here's a handy graphic:It's interesting to note that this past Sunday was the first day this year to see more than 500 record low or low maximum temperature records. That's opposed to the 29 days so far that have seen more than 500 high or high minimum records.The warming continues unabated... Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13102
 51. cyclonebuster 3:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2012 Quoting Neapolitan:Yeah, it's been colder than normal. That is, in the United States. That is, this week. Meanwhile, nearly all the rest of the planet continues to see relatively balmy weather:...and even here in the good old U.S. of A., temperatures will be well above normal next week:BTW: even with the current cold records thrown into the mix, for 2012 as a whole, high records in the U.S. have outnumbered low records by 56,725 to 12,271. Here's a handy graphic:It's interesting to note that this past Sunday was the first day this year to see more than 500 record low or low maximum temperature records. That's opposed to the 29 days so far that have seen more than 500 high or high minimum records.The warming continues unabated...And uncontested. Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20217

Viewing: 1 - 51

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.