Models are Everywhere:

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 5:56 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

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Models are Everywhere: Models, Water, and Temperature (3)

This is a series of blogs on models, water, and temperature (see Intro). I am starting with models. In this series, I am trying to develop a way to build a foundation for nonscientists to feel comfortable about models and their use in scientific investigation. I expect to get some feedback on how to do this better from the comments. In order to keep a solid climate theme, I am going to have two sections to the entries. One section will be on models, and the other will be on a research result, new or old, that I think is of particular interest.

Doing Science with Models 1.0: I have written a number of entries over the years introducing the role of models in climate science (Uncertainty (Model Types), Predictable Arguments). You will also find in those entries links to a couple of chapters in books, where I have written introductions to atmospheric modeling for scientists. (most recently, standalone chapter). There are several websites that offer an introduction to climate modeling, for example, We Adapt, climateprediction.net, NASA Earth Observatory, and Koshland Science Museum. A discussion I particularly like is Spencer Weart’s Simple Models of Climate Change. My friends who are expert in education tell me, however, that models, modeling, and the use of models are among the most difficult concepts to both grasp and teach. Often people do not feel comfortable with models as a representation of real things or, in the case of climate, with the real world. The consequences of this discomfort for climate change are far reaching, ranging from challenging how to use the information from models to providing an easy way to grow the political arguments of selective doubt.

Looking at the online resources that introduce climate models, many of them start with words such as “theory,” “numerical,” “computer,” and “mathematical.” They talk about representing the “physics” of the atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice as “coupled systems.” There are different ways that “complexity” is discussed. I often state that climate models are a way to “manage the complexity” of the Earth’s climate or that they are a “comprehensive expression of our accumulated knowledge.” Others talk about complexity in way that comes across as the climate and climate models are complex, and hence, it takes scientists to understand models. I can even find online resources that say that the climate is so complex that it is unreasonable to imagine that humans can build credible climate models. This cloak of complexity is one I will try remove in the series.

When I think about models, the first thing that comes to mind is the half hull of ships that ship builders used to inform the design and building of their ships. Following that thought, there are the models of buildings and shopping centers that are tools of architects and urban planners. These models not only allow seeing how a new building might fit into the environment, but they also serve as a way to, for instance, identify traffic congestion because of placement of parking lots and to communicate the design in the designer’s mind to clients and the public. Another practical example of this form of model is the mockup of, say, the electrical and plumbing systems in a big building to see how things fit together. Similarly, when NASA builds a satellite, there are engineering mockups that are used in design and planning that serve as basic tools to guide thinking about the construction of a complex system and to communicate to others in the project.



Figure 1: Half hulls of boats, a type of model. From Halfhull.com.

This type of model fits into the definition of a work or structure used in testing or perfecting a final product. As described, these are often touchable, real constructions that look like little versions of the real thing. Professionals in the field might call them “toy models,” which is not in any way meant to convey that they are less than serious. Increasingly, these models are represented digitally, using computers, to provide three-dimensional video worlds that you can walk through (Rick Kaplan’s 1963 Mickey Mantle Homerun). All of the details mentioned in this paragraph will, ultimately, be related to climate models; however, the initial point I want to make is that models are everywhere in our world. Rather than models being abstract ideas that are alien, models are, in fact, quite intuitive. They are one of the devices that we use to help think about our complex world. And perhaps more simply, they help in the quick construction of a picnic bench that can sit firmly on the ground and hold up three 200-hundred-pound men.

Interesting Research: Changes in the Arctic: Steering of Storms - Often when we talk of the Earth warming, we talk about the average temperature of the surface of the Earth increasing. It has already been observed, and climate models predict that the Arctic will warm far more and far faster than this average temperature. This is often called “Arctic Amplification.” There are many consequences of the enhanced warming of the Arctic, such as vast changes in northern forests, thawing of the permafrost, and, potentially, the release of large amounts of storages of the greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide. (WWF’s Arctic Feedbacks Review)

The specifics of the Earth’s climate are strongly related to the tilt of the Earth on its axis of rotation, the rate of rotation, the distribution of land and water, and the mountains on the land. It is because of these defining attributes of the Earth that we get different regional climate characteristics such as tropical and polar climate zones. In the United States, we mostly live in what atmospheric scientists call the middle latitudes. In the middle latitudes, storms are always working to even out the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles. As the climate warms, it is intuitive that the area of the tropics is likely to get larger, that is, tropical climates will extend closer to the poles. As mentioned above, there are already huge changes in the Arctic.

As the Arctic and tropics change, the jet streams change, and the characteristics of the storms that transport heat from the tropics to the polar region change. There is a very nice recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters by Francis and Vavrus, Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. If there is a simple takeaway message from this paper, it is that weather features such as storms are moving more slowly and often of greater amplitude. Amplitude? Middle latitude storms are waves and well modeled as waves, and the amplitude of the waves are increasing. The impact of these changes is that weather events are more persistent, leading to more extremes of weather: floods, droughts, heat waves, and cold spells. All of these impacts occur when the weather gets stuck in a particular pattern.

What I specifically like about this paper is how they bring the observations back to fundamental theories and models of atmospheric motion (Holton: Dynamical Meteorology). Dynamical meteorology is a mature field of science with its principles checked in weather forecasting, observational field studies, and numerical modeling. When observations and models and theory are combined in a way that paints a consistent picture, we develop a form of scientific investigation that identifies processes, isolates cause and effect, and help us understand the ingredients of the complexity of the Earth’s climate.

r


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177. OldLeatherneck
4:38 PM GMT on August 03, 2012


Thanks to Neven, here is a link to regularly updated videos at Chris Reynold's Dosbat blog:

Dosbat Blog

There are 12 separate videos showing the annual changes from 2002 to present for each month of the year.
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
176. cyclonebuster
4:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Rapidly approaching 5th place since 1979. You all want to change that or just sit on your hands similar to the frog in the pot of hot water and act like nothing is going on.




Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
175. cyclonebuster
3:54 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Past three days still tracking at record low........ You all want to change that or just sit on your hands and act like nothing is going on.

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
174. cyclonebuster
2:58 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Anyone ever study about the Methanesulfonic acid compound CH3SO3H and what effects it may have on our climate. Seems like more of this would form in our atmosphere since the permafrost is melting adding to methane levels and would combine with the sulfur from burning fossil fuels. Would it have a cooling effect or warming effect? Would it create a different type of acid rain?


Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
173. cyclonebuster
2:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


This may seem counterintuitive, but the lowest concentrations are typically noticed during May/June/July. As I understand it Methane is oxidized by mixing with the free radical Hydroxyl (OH). Hydroxyl is created when sunlight interacts with water vapor. Therefore during the months of 24 hour sunlight in the arctic more Hydroxyl is being created to interact with the methane. According to Dr. Yurganov,. the peak emissions in the arctic regions begin in August. In looking at the maps for the past 10 years, the darkest months seem to have the heaviest concentrations in the arctic.

Someone with skills at creating animations might want to take all 10 years of Dr. Yurganov's maps and make a video. HINT to one you you smart folks!!


It would be interesting to say the least. I bet you can establish some more trends by viewing them that way or perhaps see where the seeps are coming from more clearly........
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
172. OldLeatherneck
2:31 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting cyclonebuster:


It would be neat to see a time lapse loop of these charts during the summer ice melt off that way you can see the concentrations increase.........


This may seem counterintuitive, but the lowest concentrations are typically noticed during May/June/July. As I understand it Methane is oxidized by mixing with the free radical Hydroxyl (OH). Hydroxyl is created when sunlight interacts with water vapor. Therefore during the months of 24 hour sunlight in the arctic more Hydroxyl is being created to interact with the methane. According to Dr. Yurganov,. the peak emissions in the arctic regions begin in August. In looking at the maps for the past 10 years, the darkest months seem to have the heaviest concentrations in the arctic.

Someone with skills at creating animations might want to take all 10 years of Dr. Yurganov's maps and make a video. HINT to one you you smart folks!!
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
171. cyclonebuster
2:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Dr. Yurganov from the Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology has just posted the July 2012 map of Northern Hemisphere Methane Concenrations. This chart has the corrected Color Scale Legend. I had hesitated posting the June charts beccause of a discrepency with the color scale. I notified Dr. Rood of this discrepency and he informed me that he would look into it since he knew Dr. Yurganov. THANKS Dr. Rood.

All of Dr. Yurganov's charts dating back to 2002 may be found at:

CH4 Concentrations 2002 - 2012


It would be neat to see a time lapse loop of these charts during the summer ice melt off that way you can see the concentrations increase.........
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
170. OldLeatherneck
1:03 PM GMT on August 03, 2012


Dr. Yurganov from the Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology has just posted the July 2012 map of Northern Hemisphere Methane Concenrations. This chart has the corrected Color Scale Legend. I had hesitated posting the June charts beccause of a discrepency with the color scale. I notified Dr. Rood of this discrepency and he informed me that he would look into it since he knew Dr. Yurganov. THANKS Dr. Rood.

All of Dr. Yurganov's charts dating back to 2002 may be found at:

CH4 Concentrations 2002 - 2012
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
169. Birthmark
6:04 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:
The Oklahoma melted street lights were apparently caused by garbage dumpster fire and not the heat wave.


I took the story as a joke, anyway. I saw nothing that made me think that it was a serious story.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5184
168. BobWallace
5:52 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
The Oklahoma melted street lights were apparently caused by garbage dumpster fire and not the heat wave.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
167. Birthmark
5:42 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting ClimateChange:
New study showing palm trees once thrived in coastal Antarctica:

Link

When I see studies like this, I really have to question the climate models ability to handle the positive feedbacks. Antarctica was pretty much in the same place it is today during this time, so the evidence can't be blamed largely on continental drift. Nor was solar output thought to be significantly different from today. The main difference was the amount of atmospheric CO2.

It really seems to validate some of Dr. Kiehl's work, which has been to the effect that, contrary to popular belief, climate models actually underestimate warming. Dr. Kiehl, of NCAR, published a study last year. It dealt with the same period during the Eocene Epoch, some 50-55 mya. Atmospheric CO2 was over 1000 ppm at the time. He estimated the global average annual mean at 31C/87F, some 16C warmer than today.

I wonder what the ocean currents were doing at that time?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5184
166. ClimateChange
3:42 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
New study showing palm trees once thrived in coastal Antarctica:

Link

When I see studies like this, I really have to question the climate models ability to handle the positive feedbacks. Antarctica was pretty much in the same place it is today during this time, so the evidence can't be blamed largely on continental drift. Nor was solar output thought to be significantly different from today. The main difference was the amount of atmospheric CO2.

It really seems to validate some of Dr. Kiehl's work, which has been to the effect that, contrary to popular belief, climate models actually underestimate warming. Dr. Kiehl, of NCAR, published a study last year. It dealt with the same period during the Eocene Epoch, some 50-55 mya. Atmospheric CO2 was over 1000 ppm at the time. He estimated the global average annual mean at 31C/87F, some 16C warmer than today.
Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 236
165. RevElvis
3:37 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


He is a fiscal conservative? His campaign has raised over $6.5 million and has spent nearly all of it already. Does he have any real candidates running against him in 2014?


Probably not - he's been in office since 1994 - the "better" news (I'm not going to say good) - is that we are about to experience the beginnings of some things that should wake the rest of us up. Although they probably won't silence the cacophony of ignorance - they might have the effect of re-focusing the attention on people who have solutions & can get things done.

Then again - I am prone to wishful thinking and could be wrong. (but I hope not - because things are looking like they could get real ugly, real fast)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
164. RevElvis
3:18 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Trying not to get too "political" - but it would sure be great to see more leaders getting on the renewable energy bandwagon.

San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro will be giving the keynote address at the 2012 DNC.


Texas lags in solar – can San Antonio’s commitment brighten the picture?

TexasClimateNews.org article(6/25/2012)

San Antonio has emerged as a city willing to turn talk into action and its abundant sunlight into energy to spark what Mayor Julián Castro – the one who the New York Times Magazine suggested could be America’s first Latino president – calls the “New Energy Economy.” In the era of Solyndra [a bankrupt solar panel manufacturer in California targeted by Republican critics of federal support for alternative energy], San Antonio is making a bold, maybe risky bid at deploying solar energy on a scale that could edge the city away from fossil fuels, create jobs and reduce greenhouse gasses, water consumption and air pollution. Castro and the city’s massive utility, CPS Energy, are betting that climate change, depleting fossil fuels and increased drought stress will make early investments in renewable energy and clean technologies a huge payoff in the future.

Another article on the same site:

UT poll: Amid heat and drought, more think climate change is occurring

Link
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163. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:03 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Deleted
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162. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:57 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Deleted
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161. RevElvis
1:50 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Midwest drought causing fish kills -- and hurting fishing business

CBSnew.com (Video & Text)

Hotter, shallower water has less oxygen and the fish suffocate. It's happening in Wisconsin, Tennessee, and Kentucky to pike, walleye, and bass. In Iowa, 37,000 sturgeon worth $10 million were found dead along a 42-mile stretch of the Des Moines River last month.

Temperatures in the Midwest were five to ten degrees above normal in July. Culjan has seen barely two inches of rain.

Add together those unusually hot temperatures and the critically low levels of rainfall and and you get extremely low water levels

The drought and heat could present a problem for migrating birds this fall. Waterfowl depend on wetlands to rest and to feed. This drought is going to make those wetlands much more difficult for the birds to find.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
160. RevElvis
1:44 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Scientists Tell Senate Panel: Climate Change Is Here and Disaster Costs Will Be Huge

CommonDreams.org

"There is no doubt that climate has changed," Fields said. "There is also no doubt that a changing climate changes the risks of extremes, including extremes that can lead to disaster."

Despite the evidence presented, however, Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma was unwavering in his denial of the scientific communities findings. In his prepared opening remarks, Inhofe said: "The global warming movement has completely collapsed."


A link to provide a "Fair & Balanced" reason for Sen. Inhofe's comments.

OpenSecrets.org
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
159. RevElvis
1:35 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Battling the drought on the mighty Mississippi

CBSnews.com

"What is the difference in the amount of traffic that can go down this river?" I ask.

"In high stages tow boats are like on a freeway all by themselves," said Smith. "They can maneuver anywhere you want. Today, towboats are basically on a one-way street. Have to pull over and wait for oncoming traffic, wait, slow down."

"Can you keep this river open?" I ask. His kind face hardens with determination.

"Absolutely. We have dredges and we'll go out and dredge the low areas. $160 billion of cargo a year moves up and down this system. You have to keep it going. We do. We have to keep it going."

Some barges have run aground and forecasters expect it to get worse as the drought is forecast to persist into the fall.

"If it keeps dropping, what are we looking at?" I ask.

"Possible river closures, traffic stopping while we dredge," Smith says.

"Could be devastating. Every family would see it. You'd see it at the gas pumps, you'd see it at the grocery stores. You'd see it everywhere."
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
158. cyclonebuster
1:20 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Senator Inhofe is a disgrace. The constituents of his state are suffering for the second year in a row. The impact of the drought is having a severe financial impact on agriculture in Oklahoma.

Senator Inhofe should have the human decency to care for the constituents of his state more than his benefactors. In my estimation, his flagrant denial of true science coupled with his powerful position in the US Senate is resulting in a crime against humanity.

The citizens of Oklahoma need to wake up and realize that they are being deceived by someone they elected to represent their interests!


Inhofe reminds me of King Nimrod in the bible. He is an egotistical pompous donkey.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
157. Patrap
1:17 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Sen. Inhofe went after the FAA after he got busted for almost landing his own Plane on a CLOSED runway with a large X.

Just Missed Crashing into the Workers at the last second.

Oklahoma deserves everything they get with that ass hat.

Shame the Nation has him as a Committee Chair.

Nuff said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
156. cyclonebuster
1:15 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:
It's so hot in Oklahoma that the street lights are melting.



Senator Oilbags, er, Inhofe assures us that it's not climate change. Everything is fine. Just keep on keepin' on....

Link

(Jerry would have been 70 yesterday.)


My Tunnels would prevent that........... LOL..........

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
155. OldLeatherneck
1:00 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:
It's so hot in Oklahoma that the street lights are melting.



Senator Oilbags, er, Inhofe assures us that it's not climate change. Everything is fine. Just keep on keepin' on....

Link

(Jerry would have been 70 yesterday.)


Senator Inhofe is a disgrace. The constituents of his state are suffering for the second year in a row. The impact of the drought is having a severe financial impact on agriculture in Oklahoma.

Senator Inhofe should have the human decency to care for the constituents of his state more than his benefactors. In my estimation, his flagrant denial of true science coupled with his powerful position in the US Senate is resulting in a crime against humanity.

The citizens of Oklahoma need to wake up and realize that they are being deceived by someone they elected to represent their interests!
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
154. BobWallace
12:15 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
It's so hot in Oklahoma that the street lights are melting.



Senator Oilbags, er, Inhofe assures us that it's not climate change. Everything is fine. Just keep on keepin' on....

Link

(Jerry would have been 70 yesterday.)

--

eta: The cause of these melted lights was apparently a fire in a trash dumpster, not the daily temperature.
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153. JohnLonergan
11:59 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:
A look at how the ice pack in the East Siberian Sea/Beaufort Sea has been faring.

To help orient (and astound) look at the bottom right of the last frame (0730) and you'll see the Northwest Passage suddenly open us as the ice melts out in place.



It's been a pretty non-eventful summer in the Arctic. Some hot days, but not the sort of big storm conditions that would cause a lot of damage to the ice. Just steady melting and almost two more months to go.

Chances are quite high for new record lows.

(gif borrowed from Neven's site.)



Amazing and scary bunch of graphs at Neven's this AM. Love the contribution, of all the regulars, Jim Petit
Lewis Hamilton et al.

That animation above makes me wonder "What would Amundsen think?"
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2744
152. cyclonebuster
11:02 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:
A look at how the ice pack in the East Siberian Sea/Beaufort Sea has been faring.

To help orient (and astound) look at the bottom right of the last frame (0730) and you'll see the Northwest Passage suddenly open us as the ice melts out in place.



It's been a pretty non-eventful summer in the Arctic. Some hot days, but not the sort of big storm conditions that would cause a lot of damage to the ice. Just steady melting and almost two more months to go.

Chances are quite high for new record lows.

(gif borrowed from Neven's site.)


Yep! More steady constant melting 2nd most ever recorded over time since 1979......... Soon to be first...........

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
151. BobWallace
10:47 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
A look at how the ice pack in the East Siberian Sea/Beaufort Sea has been faring.

To help orient (and astound) look at the bottom right of the last frame (0730) and you'll see the Northwest Passage suddenly open up as the ice melts out in place.



It's been a pretty non-eventful summer in the Arctic. Some hot days, but not the sort of big storm conditions that would cause a lot of damage to the ice. Just steady melting and almost two more months to go.

Chances are quite high for new record lows.

(gif borrowed from Neven's site.)
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The X Factor is in Play and accelerating fast Globally too.

Tis aint my Fathers Atmosphere, nore my early childhood neither.

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One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.

Drought already creating global ripples
The U.S. is the world's largest exporter of corn and wheat, and 3rd largest exporter of soybeans. According to the Christian Science Monitor, food price increases due to the U.S. drought is already causing unrest in other parts of the world: "Take Indonesia, where soybeans are used to make tofu, the staple protein for the country's poor. There, soybean prices have risen 33 percent in the past month, and are already causing tensions. On July 26, there were clashes in Jakarta and other major cities in markets as a coalition of tofu producers sought to enforce a national production strike protesting against a 5 percent soybean import duty."

Jeff Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572

Clearly a new record low for extent. How many times are we going to let this happen before catastrophe happens Dr. Rood?


Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
Quoting greentortuloni:


Not sure what your link was to.. it returns me to this blog.

If you meant comment number three on this blog, I felt a bit rediculous offering modeling advice here, like asking Monica Belluci advice on how to break my heart - after a moment's reflection, i assume she already knows.




Funny you dint mention Mayor again either.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nah! He just says that if you cannot trust the thermometer readings then this cannot be happening. The thermometer readings must take into account the urban heat island effect or all of this other stuff doesn't count. ... I think he missed the point somewhere along the line. Throw away all of your thermometers and what do you have? The same warming that we have using all of the thermometers. Someone needs to tell Watts that the wind does not look at any thermometer before it decides which way it is going to blow.


Watts doesn't even focus on what is happening in the Northern Arctic. He is always spouting off about skewed temperature data around "Urban Sprawl" (concrete and blacktop)skewing the temperature. He needs to ask himself why is the Northern Arctic getting so hot? I don't see any blacktop or concrete there at all but yet it is still warming profusely.

Mr. Watts needs to look at the current dot charts and ask why are the red dots more massive and more numerous than the blue dots?? I don't see concrete or blacktop "Urban Sprawl" there.

Example for Mr. Watts:





Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
Quoting greentortuloni:


Not sure what your link was to.. it returns me to this blog.

If you meant comment number three on this blog, I felt a bit rediculous offering modeling advice here, like asking Monica Belluci advice on how to break my heart - after a moment's reflection, i assume she already knows.

You should find out. And tell her I said, "How *you* doin', Monica?" Thanks.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5184
Quoting BobWallace:


I don't think I've ever said that it is likely that the free market will save us. I could have said, and would say, that the free market could save us if we had adequate time to let it work.

It's clear that the cost of renewable energy will continue to decrease and the cost of fossil fuel will continue to increase. If we had 50, 100 years then we could simply kick back and let the market shut down coal, oil and natural gas.

So what does that mean? We need the action of all, or most, of the world's governments to speed things up by establishing carbon prices, outlaw burning fossil fuels, providing generous subsidies for renewables, or some other mechanism for making fossil fuels go away.

Let me ask you a question. Who on this forum has been trying to get people to contact their congress people and vote for candidates who are more likely to work on climate change?

Answer that correctly and you'll have my view on whether the government needs to be involved.

I didn't mean to imply that you rejected government-involved solutions, but I see that what I wrote could lead one to that conclusion. I intended that to be a generalized statement directed at those who think the market alone can solve the problem, not at you specifically. I am sorry for my sloppy writing and sincerely apologize.

I agree with what you've written above.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5184
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I guess Watts thinks this is an upward trend also in ice loss..



Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
Quoting Birthmark:

r>As for the free market, it is structurally incapable of solving a problem like AGW unless there is a large push from government.


I don't think I've ever said that it is likely that the free market will save us. I could have said, and would say, that the free market could save us if we had adequate time to let it work.

It's clear that the cost of renewable energy will continue to decrease and the cost of fossil fuel will continue to increase. If we had 50, 100 years then we could simply kick back and let the market shut down coal, oil and natural gas.

So what does that mean? We need the action of all, or most, of the world's governments to speed things up by establishing carbon prices, outlaw burning fossil fuels, providing generous subsidies for renewables, or some other mechanism for making fossil fuels go away.

Let me ask you a question. Who on this forum has been trying to get people to contact their congress people and vote for candidates who are more likely to work on climate change?

Answer that correctly and you'll have my view on whether the government needs to be involved.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Question for you guys??? How much fossil fuel energy (gas,coal and oil) would it take to pump as much salt water as the Gulfstream has flowing through it 24/7/365?

Anyone ever calculate this??????
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
RE: ecological suicide. I'm familiar with Easter Island, I just couldn't come up with other examples of populations wiping themselves out. And they didn't totally wipe themselves out, when Europeans first arrived there were 2 to 3 thousand individuals left.

That aside, Easter Island does offer us a good lesson. Unlike the Mayans, Anasazi, and other civilizations who overused their environment and had to move, the people of Easter Island had no other place to go.

We've got no where else to go. At least no place that would shelter billions of us.

We're luckier than the Easter Island people. We very well know our options. We have the technology to keep the worst from happening.


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THIS






PREVENTS THIS..



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The irresistible urge to Troll

Why Online Comments Are So Toxic

Online anonymity creates a sense of a culture without consequences.

Alternet.org

OT? - then again - maybe not
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Currently in 5th place now.






Anyone care to guess what can keep us in 30th place and keep the passages frozen over if needed????????





Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
OK it is official now..... We are in 6th place already...





Looks like NW and NE passages are open already..




Anyone care to guess what can keep us in 30th place and keep the passages frozen over if needed????????

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
Besides, I am on a commenting holiday so I couldn't have posted anything.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah, Like comment #3 here,now das POOFED.

But I saved it,er, for the "archives".




LOL


Not sure what your link was to.. it returns me to this blog.

If you meant comment number three on this blog, I felt a bit rediculous offering modeling advice here, like offering Monica Belluci advice on how to break my heart - after a moment's reflection, i assume she already knows.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Deleted
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Yeah, Like comment #3 here,now das POOFED.

But I saved it,er, for the "archives".




LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
Quoting NeapolitanFan:
Hate to break up the little cultish party going on here, but more scientists are uncovering the ongoing scam at CRU and NOAA using "adjusted" temperatures. Just look what happens when one "unadjusts" temperatures:

Link


So now adults are 'cultish'? If you try to understand the conversation or at least look up the big words, you could probably join us at the big people's table.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Hate to break up the little cultish party going on here, but more scientists are uncovering the ongoing scam at CRU and NOAA using "adjusted" temperatures. Just look what happens when one "unadjusts" temperatures:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JohnLonergan:
I watched the Senate hearing this morning. Christy didn’t mention the Watts paper in his spoken testimony, but Senator Boxer (D from CA, and chair) absolutely slammed him for referring to it in writing, asking him whether it was peer-reviewed and how could he be relying on one unreviewed paper, she trusted in the many reviewed papers that supported warming. Christy looked like he wanted to crawl somewhere and hide.

He didn't mention Watts' name, that is true. But it was obvious which paper he was talking about.

And wasn't that a nice take-down by Boxer? I smiled.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5184

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.