Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Quoting BobWallace:
I think it would have to be more technical - or maybe I don't understand temperature records: if a high population area or any highly dense area of records has a minor heat wave, a larger number of records might be broken than say in an area with a small population.

How about a ratio of Broken records:Total area records kept?

Not sure I understand it: total area records kept is the Voronoi area of each record. then a weighted average is used?

What area do you use? I mean do yo use the entire US? Or like in my idea do you use any subset that works? The problem with a ratio is that it is scale-free, meaning it could be as small as possible. Mine had an absolute built in - though maybe that is a problem in other areas like places where records are sparse.

but i guess so

s = displacement
u = initial velocity
v = final velocity
a = uniform acceleration
t = time
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acceleration
v = u at
solving for a=uniform acceleration
How fast will sea level rise have to accelerate reach 5 meters change in height. I will
Start back in 1870 and we have risen 20cm since then or about 8 inches.
Solving for acceleration = a I get
A= (S-ut)/(1/2t*2)
We have 480 cm to go to reach 5 meters sea level rise 500cm %u2013 20cm = 480cm
S = 480 cm
U = 3mm/yr. = .3cm/yr
T = 2100-2012=88yr

A= (S-ut)/(1/2t*2)
A = (480cm-(.3cm/yr x 88yr)) / (.5(88x88)) = .117cm/yr*2 = 1.17 mm/yr



Some rapid rate similar to this. Melt water pulse 1A


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meltwater_pulse_1A
20m somewhere between 500yrs or 200yrs. So it appears that 5m/century is possible.

A different tact on this and lets pick an acceleration for the next 100 years.
A=.1mm/yr*2 = .01cm/yr*2
T= 100
S = ut 1/2at*2 how far will sea level rise at this constant acceleration rate.

S = (.3cm/yr x 100yr) (.5 x .01cm/yr*2 x 100*2)
S= 30cm 50cm = 80cm x (1m/100cm) = .8m
.1mm/yr acceleration would equal about 1mm acceleration per decade.
I have only chosen linear acceleration because that is what is easiest for me to work
with. But I see .1mm/yr average acceleration of sea level rise as highly possible in this century.

v = final velocity at 2112
u = initial velocity = .3cm/yr
a = .01cm/yr**2
t = 100 yrs

V = u at

= .3cm/yr .01cm/yr*2(100yr) = .3 1cm = 1.3 cm/yr
13cm/decade= 5.1 in/decade. This is a significant velocity after 100 years.

This assumes linear acceleration for a century. Increasing acceleration would take us into the higher projections similar to MIT


Having brought this up in conversation I was told that I was scaring myself.

Quoting renewableguy:
This assumes linear acceleration for a century. Increasing acceleration would take us into the higher projections similar to MIT


Having brought this up in conversation I was told that I was scaring myself.

Earth's Two Ice Sheets Melting Faster Than Expected, Surprising Study Finds

The massive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets that sit near Earth's two poles are melting at an increasingly faster pace, a new study finds.

The study, based on measurements covering nearly 20 years, suggests the melting ice sheets are becoming the dominant contributor to global sea level rise, overtaking the loss of ice from Earth's mountain glaciers and ice caps, much sooner than climate models had predicted.

Link

Since this study was published, other facts have come to light. Among those that I remember are such things as:

1. In 2010, Greenland lost ~100,000 gigatonnes of ice more than normal.

2. Human pumping of fossil water from ancient aquifers faster than they can be replenished is also a contributing factor to rising sea levels.

3. Thermal expansion of the oceans is currently being modelled as a constant. With additional heating of the oceans, that term will need to include some acceleration.

4. Certain coastal areas, on earth, such as Louisiana, are subsiding at rates greater than the current rate of sea-level rise. For these areas the net rise will be catastrophic in the very near term.

I'm sure that the folks much smarter than I am can provide even more things that will accelerate sea-level rise even more than we now anticipate.

When measurements of rising sea-levels begin to look like a hockey stick, the world is in serious trouble!

Quoting OldLeatherneck:
Texas GOP’s 2012 Platform Opposes Teaching Of ‘Critical Thinking Skills’

We oppose the teaching of Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) (values clarification), critical thinking skills and similar programs that are simply a relabeling of Outcome-Based Education (OBE) (mastery learning) which focus on behavior modification and have the purpose of challenging the student’s fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority.

Link

As a resident of Texas, I'm embarassed to post this. It is becoming clear that the intentions of the current GOP Leadership is to keep the masses ignorant.

No wonder so many gullible people still deny AGW and Climate Change, in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

sigh .... I picked a bad day to quit smoking.

This was the thinking of the Communist U.S.S.R. leadership. The best way to control the minds of the citizens was to keep them uneducated in all the things that they did not want them to know and to teach them only what they did want them to know. The GOP has long feared and abhorred the idea that communism would one day consume the U.S.. Yet, the current GOP leadership is beginning to behave in the exact same manner as the Communist leadership behaved. What the GOP most fears happening will be a result of their own behavior. ... Those that suffer from insanity rarely actually know that they are INSANE! I do not know when this all began to come about, but the current GOP leadership does not suffer from any insanity. Rather, they seem to grow and prosper from their insanity!

Quoting OldLeatherneck:
Texas GOP’s 2012 Platform Opposes Teaching Of ‘Critical Thinking Skills’

We oppose the teaching of Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) (values clarification), critical thinking skills and similar programs that are simply a relabeling of Outcome-Based Education (OBE) (mastery learning) which focus on behavior modification and have the purpose of challenging the student’s fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority.

Link

As a resident of Texas, I'm embarassed to post this. It is becoming clear that the intentions of the current GOP Leadership is to keep the masses ignorant.

No wonder so many gullible people still deny AGW and Climate Change, in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

"“I think the intent is that the Republican Party is opposed to the values clarification method that serves the purpose of challenging students beliefs and undermine parental authority,” he said."

... WOOOOOOOOOOOOOW! Let me see if I have correctly read this. What this is saying is that if a student believes that Earth is the center of our universe, that everything in our universe revolves around Earth and that our moon is made of cheese then any teacher would be restricted from educating them with the facts? Also, and even more frightening, if the parents want their children to believe any of this then they cannot be taught differently, even if the student wants to know more? Will the teachers be imprisoned if they actually try to educate their students? This is insane!

The conservative Republicans say that they want the government of out of their way and yet they want to censure, dictate exactly what can and cannot be taught, take complete control of your life from the moment of conception and then abandon you when you are born and to have any laws, rules or regulations, that they do not favor, immediately scrapped. UNBELIEVABLE!!! Do they look for people that are brain dead or do they just seek people to join them that wish to become brain dead? .... This has convinced me to NEVER vote for another Republican until the old style GOP has once again shown that it has regained control of the Republican party.

As I have said, I have picked a bad day to quit smoking!

I've heard people say that Texas is close to flipping from a Red to a Blue state as younger Texans enter the voting ranks and minorities become majorities.

I'm certainly hoping that's true. And that it happens soon.

Quoting BobWallace:
I've heard people say that Texas is close to flipping from a Red to a Blue state as younger Texans enter the voting ranks and minorities become majorities.

I'm certainly hoping that's true. And that it happens soon.

Perhaps this is true. Evidently the Republican party seems to think this and this has pushed them to try to control what can be taught now. ... Control, or the lack of, comes from how knowledgeable the citizens are and what they allowed to use as knowledge.

Quoting BobWallace:
I've heard people say that Texas is close to flipping from a Red to a Blue state as younger Texans enter the voting ranks and minorities become majorities.

I'm certainly hoping that's true. And that it happens soon.

Let me give you a perspective of current Texas politics. I retired, in the Hill Country, almost 5 years ago. My wife is a native Texan and a retired Director from a major university in Texas. I am currently the fundraising chairman for the Democratic Party, and a Precinct Chair in my county, which votes 75% Republican.

After the 2008 election, Democrats locally and statewide were ecstatic. At that time we were within 2 seats of having the majority in the State House of Representatives. After the 2010 election, we lost so many seats that we are within 1 seat of preventing the Republicans of having a quorum without inviting the Democrats.

The Democrats are fractured, beset with petty infighting and are doing little to energize the minority populations.

Meanwhile, the Republican county clubbers, with ties to Big Oil, are happily strolling along. The majority of the Republican base consists of Tea Baggers, Libertarians, Secessionists and outright racists.

Since my wife cares so much about education, she occasionally substitute teaches at a local high school. Among the many painful moments she has experienced, here are a few:

1. On the day President Obama was innaugurated, one student took the day off so that he and his father could hide their guns, in fear that Obama would have them confiscated.

2. Several months ago, my wife met a new substitute teacher who told her that "Jesus sent the Tea Party to save America".

In this part of Texas, the locals have a visceral hatred of Barack Obama. Being a Democrat here is akin to being a Jehovah's witness in Mecca. Hell, I was probably safer in Vietnam 40 years ago than I am here in my own community.

These folks believe everything they hear from FAUX News, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck.

Now you expect me to educate them, with scientific facts, about climate change???

Now you expect me to educate them, with scientific facts, about climate change???


No. I expect you need to get busy organizing the >50% of Texans that aren't white. You've got sizable Hispanic and black populations.

Get 'em registered. Get 'em to the polls.

Put those two groups together with the white Texans who aren't batshit crazy and take over the state.

Might take a few years, but the numbers are in your favor.

Might happen sooner if you strongly remind Democratic registered voters that "we were within 2 seats of having the majority in the State House of Representatives" the last time they showed up to vote.

eta: In the four years since 2008 you've had a bunch of old folks die off and four years worth of new voters come of age. I'd sure bet that you gained ground with that exchange.

eta: Didn't mean "you" in the OLN sense, but the Texas Democratic Party. Sounds to me that the votes are there to start making change if they're rounded up and herded to market.

I wonder if putting the Republicans on record as disbelieving global warming would help?

Given that people tend to believe whatever theories meet their value system (i.e. if we destroy this world, God will make a new world because we are the chosen ones), if the Republican leadership was looking at a Democratic put-up or shut-up debate about climate change in a year of wildfires, melting ice and so on, would the Republicans try to cover their bases and support action on climate change?

I guess probably not, at least in Texas that is so Oil enthused (enfused?). But then again, even in Texas it seems like global warming is hitting the poor worst as farming gets hit by draught, energy prices rise and so on.

Quoting greentortuloni:
I wonder if putting the Republicans on record as disbelieving global warming would help?

Given that people tend to believe whatever theories meet their value system (i.e. if we destroy this world, God will make a new world because we are the chosen ones), if the Republican leadership was looking at a Democratic put-up or shut-up debate about climate change in a year of wildfires, melting ice and so on, would the Republicans try to cover their bases and support action on climate change?

I guess probably not, at least in Texas that is so Oil enthused (enfused?). But then again, even in Texas it seems like global warming is hitting the poor worst as farming gets hit by draught, energy prices rise and so on.

Places like Texas and Oklahoma are going to be most influenced by the money that can be made (and saved) with renewable energy. Right now both states are seeing the benefit of wind generation. Soon they will be installing a lot of solar as they realize it helps cut their utility bills.

The other thing that will get their attention is a bunch more terrible weather. Wouldn't wish that on anyone, but more extreme heat and drought would seem to be in the pipelines.

I can see Texas become a leading state in wind and solar while many loudmouths still deny climate change.

Give them affordable EVs with decent range and they'll move off oil while still denying climate change.

And, you know, that's fine. As long as they keep cutting their carbon footprint we win. Their hot air bull isn't bringing any new carbon to the surface.

absolutly no time, link, but interesting article (maybe, haven't read it) on 3D ice modeling.

When I think of the Greenland ice cap I envision white, sparkling ice. Winter wonderland stuff.

Here's a picture of what it looks like once the winter snow topping has begun to melt....




Folks might want to scroll back up and take another look at comment #47.

Greenland Ice Albedo Monitoring
From Byrd Polar Research Center

An updated compilation of NASA MODIS observations of Greenland ice sheet albedo through 25 June, 2012 indicate that now, well into into the 2012 melt season, the ice sheet remains in a darkened state as in 2011 and 2010.

If remaining in this condition, the ice sheet will continue to absorb more solar energy in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies the effect of warming or black carbon loading on snowpack heating and melt. A record setting melt season is likely if this pattern keeps up this year.

Link



For more detailed information about Greenland ice melt and the albedo effect, I've found that Dr. Jason Box, from OSU has a very informative website. Dr. Box works with the Byrd Polar Research Center. His work is quite easy to read for a layman. He also has some strong thoughts about the denialists.

About MeltFactor

This site contains my stream of consciousness on current ice and climate science…

My profession is the scientific enterprise to understand and predict the cryosphere and its climate sensitivity.

Glaciers were once used to refer to something slow. You know the old saying that something is ‘proceeding at a glacial pace’? The saying is today illogical, because the conventional though is changed. Glaciers respond very quickly, in some cases, as fast as it takes water to fall.


In response to warming, many of the planet’s largest glaciers have accelerated 50%, 100% 200% 300%, even 800%. Several of the largest Greenland glaciers have accelerated by a factor of 2 or more, in response to changes at their fronts ultimately linkable to enhanced melting during a warming period. Antarctic glaciers, once dammed by shelf ice, have decanted, accelerating several times their formerly buttressed speed because melt water cut through the ice like acid, opened the flood gates.

In the mid 1990s, conventional science held the reaction time of ice sheets to be tens of thousands of years, even longer. Further science led us to recognition, that melt is a key factor that allows ice masses (large and small) to react quickly (in hours) to abrupt climate warming.

Melt [water] is the core factor in a scale-independent sensitivity of ice to climate warming.

…this is the MeltFactor.

Your friend,

Jason Box, PhD

Rise in sea level can't be stopped: scientists

Reuters Link

(but steps could be taken to slow it down - )

Quoting RevElvis:
Are Colorado Fires Caused by Climate Change & Is This The New Normal?

Mother Jones News

I don't think it's the 'new normal'.

It's more likely a transitional phase we're passing through on the way to worst stuff.

We need to be engaging in some discussion of what we what the new normal to be and how hard we're willing to work to stop warming enough to create a new normal.

Seems like if we let "nature" set the new normal we're going to be some unhappy puppies....

Quoting BobWallace:


I don't think it's the 'new normal'.

It's more likely a transitional phase we're passing through on the way to worst stuff.

We need to be engaging in some discussion of what we what the new normal to be and how hard we're willing to work to stop warming enough to create a new normal.

In past years normal, regarding climate, could be defined in terms of centuries. Recently normal has been defined in decades. Now, we are seeing annual changes occurring at rates faster than we previously saw occurring in decades.

Normal will continue to be in a state of flux until GHG levels in the atmosphere are stabilized and the earth's climate system, and biosphere, are given time (decades/centuries) to react accordingly.

Quoting BobWallace:
When I think of the Greenland ice cap I envision white, sparkling ice. Winter wonderland stuff.

Here's a picture of what it looks like once the winter snow topping has begun to melt....




Folks might want to scroll back up and take another look at comment #47.

That snow should be pure white like "Snow White" is and not black and polluted with soot from fossil fuels........

Quoting cyclonebuster:


That snow should be pure white like "Snow White" is and not black and polluted with soot from fossil fuels........

It's not just from fossil fuels. Forest and cooking fires add to the blackness.

Quoting BobWallace:


It's not just from fossil fuels. Forest and cooking fires add to the blackness.

Arsonists forest fires?

Quoting cyclonebuster:


Arsonists forest fires?

And natural ones.

A few years back we had more than 2,000 forest fires started here in NoCal on one day. Some of them burned from June until it started raining in November.

Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Let me give you a perspective of current Texas politics. I retired, in the Hill Country, almost 5 years ago. My wife is a native Texan and a retired Director from a major university in Texas. I am currently the fundraising chairman for the Democratic Party, and a Precinct Chair in my county, which votes 75% Republican.

After the 2008 election, Democrats locally and statewide were ecstatic. At that time we were within 2 seats of having the majority in the State House of Representatives. After the 2010 election, we lost so many seats that we are within 1 seat of preventing the Republicans of having a quorum without inviting the Democrats.

The Democrats are fractured, beset with petty infighting and are doing little to energize the minority populations.

Meanwhile, the Republican county clubbers, with ties to Big Oil, are happily strolling along. The majority of the Republican base consists of Tea Baggers, Libertarians, Secessionists and outright racists.

Since my wife cares so much about education, she occasionally substitute teaches at a local high school. Among the many painful moments she has experienced, here are a few:

1. On the day President Obama was innaugurated, one student took the day off so that he and his father could hide their guns, in fear that Obama would have them confiscated.

2. Several months ago, my wife met a new substitute teacher who told her that "Jesus sent the Tea Party to save America".

In this part of Texas, the locals have a visceral hatred of Barack Obama. Being a Democrat here is akin to being a Jehovah's witness in Mecca. Hell, I was probably safer in Vietnam 40 years ago than I am here in my own community.

These folks believe everything they hear from FAUX News, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck.

Now you expect me to educate them, with scientific facts, about climate change???

Well, what Bob refers to is an urban-oriented trend, and one that isn't expected even by the most optimistic to "flip" the state in the short term.

As for the Hill Country folks and accepting the facts about climate change, I expect they will eventually, but only after a fair amount of adaptation by suffering.

Quoting BobWallace:


And natural ones.

A few years back we had more than 2,000 forest fires started here in NoCal on one day. Some of them burned from June until it started raining in November.

I bet we can tell what particulate matter came from fossil fuels and which ones came from forest fires?????????? I would like to know the percentages between the two..

Quoting spbloom:


Well, what Bob refers to is an urban-oriented trend, and one that isn't expected even by the most optimistic to "flip" the state in the short term.

As for the Hill Country folks and accepting the facts about climate change, I expect they will eventually, but only after a fair amount of adaptation by suffering.

I know the Texas Hill Country that OldLeatherNeck speaks of. San Marcos, Wimberly, Dripping Springs, Canyon Lake, Johnson City and the rest of the Edwards Plateau region. My parents bought land in Wimberly ( Flite Acres ) back in the 60's and sold it to buy other land just north of Wimberly, off of Golds Road. They retired there in the 80's. I have a brother that still lives in Wimberly. These are some of the friendliest people you ever will meet while you are on the road. They wave at strangers and will strike up a conversation with anyone that wants to have one. Trespassing is something they have very little patience with and trying to change their opinion on something is akin to trespassing on their thoughts. They show very little tolerance for an opposing opinion. More likely the opinions they hold now are the opinions they will take to their grave.

Texas is now less than 50% non-Hispanic white.

Texas's Hispanics are not Cubans, they are mostly going to vote Democratic. As are Texas's African-Americans.

Minority birthrates are higher than non-Hispanic white birthrates.

Younger people in every state generally have different opinions than older people. Many have grown up with the internet part of their lives, they've been exposed to different ideas than the older folks. They've grown up in an integrated national culture and certainly with an integrated popular culture. They've been exposed to climate change information for larger portions of their lives.

Change is underway. I don't know if it's possible to flip the state "quickly", but I think it's possible to start flipping the state.

"After the 2008 election, Democrats locally and statewide were ecstatic. At that time we were within 2 seats of having the majority in the State House of Representatives."

This tells us that the flip is close.

eta: The flip is close if the Democratic Party of Texas will register and turn out their voters.