Using Predictions to Plan: Case Study – La Nina and the Missouri River (1)
Using Predictions to Plan: Case Study – La Nina and the Missouri River (1)
Back in November I wrote an entry on whether or not we could use the prediction that we would have La Nina conditions in late 2011 and early 2012 to anticipate, for example, whether or not there would be a another historic flood in the Upper Missouri River. A little personal micro history: During August of 2011, I was at a meeting of a panel which is writing a report on climate modeling. That meeting included climate-savvy water managers talking about the information from climate models they might find usable. During the meeting on the news, there was the story that seasonal forecasts predicted there would La Nina conditions in late 2011 and early 2012 ( Climate Prediction Center Monthly Outlook). I asked people at the meeting how they would use this information in their planning for 2012. To be fair, this question was out of the blue, but I had this idea that this seasonal prediction was definitive information when compared with the information that comes from century-long projections from climate models. The century long climate predictions might provide information that some characteristics of El Nino and La Nina will change. With adequate analysis of this information, interpretation of the information, and then guidance or translation of this information, then informed decisions about, for example, reservoir design might be made. But I was curious, given a forecast for a particular season, what would you do?
I have introduced a lot of terms in that paragraph. I will define some of them.
First for those who need information on El Nino and La Nina, these are names given to two parts of an oscillation observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In the El Nino phase, the eastern Pacific, off of Peru for instance, is warm. La Nina is the opposite, the eastern tropical Pacific is cold. This is our best known example of behavior where the atmosphere and ocean behave in concert together – and we have proven that we can predict it. (NOAA LaNina Page, El Nino @ Wikipedia) We have known for some time that these changes in the Pacific cause or influence preferential weather patterns in other parts of the world. This excites people about being able to do seasonal prediction. In this case there is some oceanic forcing of the weather – or perhaps, when the ocean is considered part of the weather prediction problem, there is information about what the weather might be like for a particular season in a particular place. Concretely, for example, when there is an El Nino, people who worry about floods in California go on high alert (for example).
Translation and guidance - There is a lot of information that comes out of a weather and climate model. All practitioners of modeling know that you can’t simply read off the temperature in Des Moines 9 months from now, much less 90 years in advance. But there is the real possibility that there is usable information in the models if 1) we understand the mechanisms that are responsible for, say, stream flow in the Iowa River, and 2) we have an understanding of the ability or inability of the model to represent those mechanisms. That is, if we can find the right knowledge, often a matter of finding the right people, then we can put together this knowledge in a way that is usable. This is what I mean by translation. It is the translation of knowledge from one discipline expert to another in a way that makes that knowledge usable. That is, to provide guidance. (Lemos and Rood on Useful and Usable)
OK – going down that path I introduced another term that I think demands more explanation. Mechanisms – when we look at a specific event like the 2011 Missouri River flood, we look for what factors come together to cause the flood. In the article that was referenced in the November blog, it was pointed out that there was an extraordinary snow cover on the Great Plains, and then a lot of rain on that snow, that caused melting, and collectively the accumulation of a lot of water that had to go downstream. So in this case, by mechanisms I mean what caused the event to happen. Perhaps the most important mechanisms that a climate model must represent to be usable for regional problems are those mechanisms that provide water to that region.
I am never quite sure if my style of writing is clarifying or just more confusing, but I get enough positive feedback that I think I clarify points for some – so I hope that the way I laid out this basic information makes sense. One more term - What I want to do is to translate information from observational studies and model predictions and make that information usable by someone. From my teaching the last 7 years, I have concluded that it is this translation of information that is the most essential missing ingredient in the usability of climate knowledge. There is a LOT of information and knowledge, but it is not easy to use.
So in this entry, I want to start the process of information translation. I warn in advance that this is a hazardous path. I am going to look at a few papers, in sub-disciplines of weather and climate, in which I am not expert. Hence, I am likely to make some mistakes, and I am hoping that doing this in public, motivates corrections of those mistakes. I take off down this path, because another thing I have discovered in the past seven years is that people who are not consummate experts in a subject are analyzing information and solving problems all over the world. And, I presume to imagine that I am more expert than most, and I presume to believe people when they tell me that I am reasonably good at translating information across discipline interfaces.
So I all start the analysis– and this is not irrelevant. I flew over a swath of the Great Plains last week, and I was struck by the lack of snow. I read Jeff Master’s blog on the extreme state of the Arctic Oscillation. At the beginning of every problem I collect information. This information inventory process is essential. With a little luck, you will find information that when all brought together can be synthesized into a solution strategy or at least contribute to informed decision making. In fact, I have tried to structure a template to problem solving for a project I am involved in, and it is here at glisaclimate.org. (What’s a GLISA?) I collected together a bunch of references that I thought might inform my translation. What, I am going to do now is extract the information from some of these references.
The first paper I am going to look at is by Bunkers et al. from the Journal of Climate in 1996. I chose this paper for a couple of reasons. First, a lot has been written that 2011 Missouri River flood had a La Nina influence. And, thinking about floods, one usually thinks about did it rain a lot? This paper is something of a sanity check, do we see changes in the rain in the Missouri River basin due to La Nina?
Bunkers et al. paper focuses on the “Northern Plains,” which is approximately North and South Dakota. The Missouri River and the Red River of the North are important drainages for these states, and they were in historic flood in 2011. The authors look at data as far back as the late 1800s. That is about as long as any record that we have in the United States. The short story of their findings is that they find that during El Nino, there is significantly enhanced precipitation in the months April through October that follow the onset of the El Nino. For the La Nina phase they find significantly less precipitation for the months May through August following the onset of La Nina. However, we cannot stop with the conclusion, El Nino = wet, La Nina = dry. El Nino and La Nina are often viewed as 2 year long events, and in the second year following the onset of El Nino it is usually a bit wetter than in years with neither an El Nino or a La Nina, but during April and May of that second year it is drier than average. The second year following the onset of the La Nina, it is in general dry. There is also temperature information in the paper, but I am going to keep my focus on precipitation for now.
Let’s recall the problem we are trying to address; namely, 2011 was a La Nina year with a huge flood on the Missouri River, and another La Nina is predicted for 2012, will we have a similar flood? One of the first things it makes sense to look at is the precipitation in the Missouri River basin. This paper looks at part of the Missouri River basin, and area where there were floods, and at least as far as La Nina is concerned we would expect less, not more, spring time precipitation. This seems contradictory to our 2011 experience.
Returning to the Bunker’s et al. paper, there are years when the relation described above did not hold. Bunker’s et al. extract seemingly robust signals, but there are exceptions to the rule. The exception to the rule requires us to consider the mechanisms that might be in play for a given year. We arrive therefore, at a problem of tailoring the information for a particular application. The relation that Bunkers et al. derived between El Nino / La Nina and precipitation in North and South Dakota is quite strong. So if you look at a climate model and it tells you that there will be more or less intense El Nino and La Nina cycles a century from now, the long-term water planner for Fargo might be able to anticipate the water system needed for her grand children. The statistical information might be enough – might, it requires more thought. For a particular season, however, we can’t use this information in isolation. It is just part of the portfolio.
So we have a sanity check that tells us that, indeed, there is documented variability of precipitation in the Missouri River basin, correlated with La Nina. But, at first blush, the La Nina variability in this region is towards drier conditions. We also, know, that what determines a flood is far more complex than “it rains a lot.” So while looking at the paper above gives us some good information, it motivates me to step back and think about all of the pieces – or mechanisms – that might work in concert to produce a flood. And it motivates me to seek whether or not such events are happenstance, or whether we can use our knowledge to anticipate, better, such extreme events. This series of blogs will go on for a while.
Figure 1. Characteristic position of wintertime jet streams during La Nina. From ClimateWatch Magazine: “The jet streams are high-altitude, racing rivers of air that can influence the path of storms as they track over North America from the Pacific Ocean. The jet streams meander and shift from day to day, but during La Niña events, they tend to follow paths that bring cold air and storms into the Upper Missouri River Basin. Map based on original graphics from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Adapted by Richard Rivera & Hunter Allen.”
Pilot Project on La Nina and the Missouri River Basin.
Link to webinars.
Reader Comments
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Yes, I do. As I have said the time for presenting any plans is not quite with us yet. What we each can do now, without any government influence in our lives, is to limit what you consume, conserve what you consume and to recycle what you discard. I see this as the only realistic approach we all can take and make a difference now. This will buy us some time, hopefully, to lay down a road map that reaches the desired destiny. This, to me, means a better chance for future generations to live as comfortable as possible and with at least the same opportunities for them as we have enjoyed. A different world, certainly. With the same opportunities, hopefully.
Coal is the dirtiest but, only by a small factor. Coal is certainly a start and I believe that natural gas is the bridge we could use to get off coal. The short term costs are considerable less than the long term costs and not with just the effects on the climate. Public health is another major factor that must be considered. .. Ask the Chinese.
That is the beauty of it all! When you consume less, you save money. Not just on the up front costs but, also on repairs and general upkeep. When you conserve what you use, you also save money. When you recycle what you discard, you also have the chance to make a little money and create jobs here. ... Who doesn't like to save money?
Nukes are better than wind and solar but, only in the sense that you regulate the flow. My real concern with nukes is the spent fuel rods. They will continue to amass and no viable plan of what to do with them on the horizon. Nuclear fusion is much more "friendly", if we can get there.
Where we build them will be subject to the geological stability of the area. Coal fired plants are usually located as close as possible to where the coal can be easily shipped. This is not a consideration for nuclear reactors. Geological stability is the key for the location of nukes.
Yes, but, would not a plan be easier to accomplish if we moved towards an infrastructure that better supports electric powered cars? Solar/wind charging stations with natural gas as a backup to them? We can even have stations that swap out your batteries for batteries that are already charged. We would need to work on a universal battery aray and universal battery terminals and connections. ... Most of us have cell phones but, can you swap batteries and chargers across different phones?
The problem with placing spent rods under ground is there is always the possibility of ground water contamination. Radioactive decay can take thousands of years, for some of the isotopes. The only thing we need as much as a breathable atmosphere is drinkable water. ... You have no idea as to how much I wish we had a viable answer for the spent fuel rods. I would jump on the band wagon for nukes in a heart beat.
A bit off subject but, I had a friend that once tried to charge his car battery using an electric cord to plug into a 110 VAC outlet and then connect straight to the battery terminals. I am certain that you can imagine the result of plugging 110 VAC onto a 12 VDC device? Let us say that it was a bit explosive!
You suggest that the charges would need to be idiot proof? Well, yes, I agree. This is where the universal connectors come into play. The connections can only be made one way. Certainly, idiots will find a way to defeat this, but?
Do you have any studies on this? I would be interested in reading them. Did not salt domes once contain water?
Nymore, I believe that the first paragraph is the greatest compliment we could ever hope to achieve on the blogs. Thank you, for your efforts.
"When there is blood in the streets, I am making money."
I would like to see you join in the conversation or, at least follow along. You seem to have questions that you have yet to discover the answers for. You probably will not find the answers here but, you just might find a better way for you to ask your questions.
Nymore and I go back a short ways and only on the blogs. We use to talk at each other and then we discovered we have some common grounds. What I found our "talks" were then was, "another day older, and deeper in debt". We soon discovered that we can have conversations. I gained a great deal of respect for his viewpoints and, hopefully, so has he for mine. Regardless of this, we now have some ability to learn from each other and to come to a better understanding as to how we can reach our common goals. Will we make a difference? More than what we could have before.
I find it somewhat disheartening that you do not agree with all that nymore and I say. ;-)
With this, nymore, I must call it a night. A quick catch up on Dr. Master's blog and then I need to call it a night. I hope to continue tomorrow evening, if you are willing?
Yes, I think that you are correct. Salt does make somewhat of an insulator. Neo is helpful, in many ways. Perhaps here as well?
BTW for those that have no fear, fear this thing. sorry to brag but I love my baby
391.80ppm
Atmospheric CO2 for December 2011
Preliminary data released January 5, 2011
(Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)
I got pinged with a message from http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ when it happened. Did you?
This is the kinda stuff I like to be aware of.
Have fun and Google "The Carrington Event" or here
Although I am not looking for cut and paste if you don't have a constructive idea of your own don't bother. I think we all know who this pertains too.
As I mentioned, it is people like you who are to blame.
I am not Eurotrash. I am American. My family has fought in most of the wars, panned for gold in Alaska long before cars went north, lived in Florida under 5 flags, Broward country is named after one of my ancesters. They came west in wagons and at one point owned one of hte first 100 cars in California and fought the Bristish before the revolutionary war. Etc., Etc
None of this matters for who I am obviously but I am pround of being American. I am embarrassed you claim to be American. America for me was the get up and go country, the get it done country, etc. They bike in Sweden in winter, they bike in Russia in winter. They bike in Canda in winter. What kind of pansy do thik Americans are? You are the Eurotrash for suggesting that Americans are too comfortable and lazy to change. You exemplify all the European steriotypes that I fight against everyday.
Do you lake the imagination to understand how biking could work? You seem to. Do you really think that a bike lane on the highway has to be as stupid as common sense suggests? Check out this http://bicyclecanberra.blogspot.com/2011/03/canber ras-big-ride.html:
Sorry no time to make it fit. But that is Autralia. Those eurotrash Autralians are doing something that we could except for people like you with your attitudes about how stupid anything new is.
Here is another link from BikePortland about the Netherlands. Here's one about Denmark. (Ok I searched for photos not great links). BUt still, I can't beleive how much people whinge on abotu how biking is impossible in winter or over long distances. Seriously, America should be the land where we teach other people how to do it, not hte land where we fall in line and do what they tell us.
well maybe the drugs have had an effect on your ability to reason.
You use Steve Jobs the fact that Steve Jobs used drugs as a reason to criticise Apple and hence justify Big Oil (which I don't understand but maybe the drugs again).
Then you brag about how many drugs you have done. I had a gold star around somewhere and when I find it you can have it: hurray you won the drug contest.
I was merely pointing out how stupid it is to criticise an idea or a company because the person behind it used drugs. i used alcohol as an example of a drug that is legal and which most adults in America use regularly. If points were veins, we would know you didn't use heroin.
Have you seen the new cars? I agree that a lot of the urban mobility devices are glorified gold carts or scooters. But not all of them. Neither are the elctric bikes or electric motorcycles.
as for the other comments, is what you are saying is that you would do anything for money? (i.e. it doesn't matter about the state of the world as long as you have enough money to impress women? I think that pretty much sums up the denialist side of the argument.)
How do you reconcile your quote above with your comment about painting bike lanes? It would be great if instead of just standing to one side you supported bike lanes and fairness in competition with autos.
All right.. you were reacting to my abrasive personality not to the ideas. I stand back and let you and Rookie play and promise to red through the whole blog before responding from now on.
But what's truly telling about the whole mess is that the WSJ just recently (2010) rejected publication of a scientifically-accurate essay jointly authored (and, thus, in effect "signed by") 255 members of the United States National Academy of Sciences that urged politicians toward action on climate change.
Get that? A science article penned by 255 actual practicing scientists was turned down in favor of a misleading and error-filled piece signed by fewer than 1/15th as many people. Amazing. And disturbing. And dangerous.
If you dare or care to compare, check them both out (Note that after rejection by the WSJ, the science essay was submitted to, and published by, Science Magazine).
WSJ opinion/letter signed by 16
Science Magazine essay signed by 255 (PDF)
None of this is a shock, really; Rupert Murdoch, who owns both the WSJ and Fox "News", is known far and wide for both his attacks on science and his unwavering support for the fossil fuel industry. And it's also no surprise that many would so desperately cling to the WSJ piece (read some of the online comments if you don't believe me). But what is shocking is that so many people are willing to throw away their children's future because doing anything to help save it is simply just too darn much work.
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2006Z Jan 28, 2012)
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
306 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 29 2012 - 00Z TUE JAN 31 2012
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A VARY MODEST SUPPLE OF MOISTURE ... ONLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT ... THEN OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. LIKEWISE ... BEHIND THIS FRONT ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MONDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ... STARTING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION ... LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE ... AN OLD BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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Clarification re Civil Resistance from Dr. Hansen
Information about Joanne Nova
You are not interested anyway so why should we?
Move you cursor over the image below.
Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Denialists have been dishonestly and disingenuously using the anomalously hot El Nino year of 1998 for many years now to "prove" that the planet isn't warming; of course if one begins a time series by cherry-picking an outlier, they can fool the gullible and uninformed into believing whatever they wish. But those who follow the science know better.
I have respect for Rutan's earlier aircraft designs--and, in fact, flew one back in the 90s. But the poor guy has aged into just another conspiracy theory-loving anti-government crank. It's sad, really; it's like watching Leonardo da Vinci pick up fortune-telling in his old age.
Gas use breaks record in Turkey
ANKARA - Anatolia News Agency
The need for natural gas is rising as heavy snow paralyses most of Turkey. DHA photo
The need for natural gas is rising as heavy snow paralyses most of Turkey. DHA photo
Due to the unseasonably chilly winter weather, Turkey broke a natural gas consumption record on Jan. 16, consuming 178 million cubic meters of natural gas.
Energy Ministry officials, however, said an 8 to 10 million cubic meter deficit is not a cause for concern and the deficit stems from the fact that people have consumed more electricity leading to a strain on the natural gas conversion plants, which convert natural gas to electricity. The situation is expected to be resolved by Jan. 21, according to officials.
“This period has not affected residential and industrial natural gas usage and will not affect usage going forward,” the officials said.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s state-run pipeline company Botaş’ Executive Board Director and General Manager Fazıl Şenel said the news regarding Botaş urging citizens in the Marmara and Ege regions to move toward secondary fuel sources was partly true.
“There is missing information though. Our citizens need not be concerned. There is no likelihood of natural gas being shut down in either residential or industrial establishments,” he said, adding that companies which were capable of producing electricity for a three to four-day period with secondary fuel sources like oil had already begun to do so.
“It is only for these firms we have applied the natural gas reduction to. This does not affect the average citizen,” said Şenel.
January/19/2012
I'd expect nothing less from you. Keep the dream alive!
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The University of VA used over $500k in taxpayer dollars refusing to release Mikey's email, because, they said, it would be too expensive. What were they hiding? It was later learned, the expense was less then $9000, but they spent half a million fighting it. Who is spending the dollars? They must have been worried that releasing the email would stop the flow of government dollars to their coffers.
While ocean heat content varies significantly from place to place and from year-to-year (as a result of changing ocean currents and natural variability), there is a strong trend during the period of reliable measurements. Increasing heat content in the ocean is also consistent with sea level rise, which is occurring mostly as a result of thermal expansion of the ocean water as it warms.
Time series of seasonal (red dots) and annual average (black line) of global upper ocean heat content for the 0-700m layer since 1955. More information: BAMS State of the Climate in 2009.
"Despite a hard-nosed corruption investigation led by Virginia Attorney General (and prominent climate denier) Ken Cuccinelli, every judicial body to examine the Mann case thus far, including several Virginia courts, the National Science Foundation [PDF], and a Penn State ethics panel, has rejected allegations that the professor fraudulently obtained public research dollars."
There's nothing there. Mann has been cleared. It's been proven over and over again. For Cuccinelli to keep wasting taxpayer dollars just shows how pathetic he is.
Quote of the Week:
"...we redistribute de facto the worlds wealth by climate policy. One has to free oneself from
the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to
do with environmental policy anymore" IPCC co-chair of Working Group 3, Dr. Ottmar
Endenhofer
Ya think some will do the character assassination thing? Lots of characters to try and hit in the references !
The Week That Was: 2012-1-28 (January 28, 2012)
Get ready for the new Monthly Global Temp info coming to a blog near you :)
Oh, can't forget the video, and ignore the animated bar charts ~
Make it a good week -- >> L8R
Interesting: the UN tries to create a plan for the future.
I haven't read the report but I think at least opening the dialogue is good because I think we have to all agree on some version of a future that is fair and sustainable. This rat race we are in now can't be the future. Not that I think the UN is capable of a managing anything particularly or understanding futurology but the dialogue is good.
The protest permit would have allowed 10,000, but the Associated Press is reporting that the Occupy march on the West Lawn of the Capitol ended up drawing just a few hundred activists yesterday. Some of the low turnout can be chalked up to the bad weather, but you’d think people who willingly sleep outside for weeks at a time wouldn’t be so deterred by a little rain.
The underlying problem may be that the movement is having some serious identity issues, now that the curious onlookers and fair-weather supporters have checked out for the winter. Right now the Occupiers have fizzled down to two core elements: professional liberal activists and radical anarchists. Needless to say, they’re having a hard time agreeing on which path the movement should head down:
The Occupy movement includes activists who want to change government from within and anarchists who oppose all government. Tension between the two camps was evident at Tuesday’s gathering, where some taunted police while others participated in earnest group discussions about how to influence their elected representatives.
Anne Filson, 71, a retired teacher from Madison, N.H., said she was disappointed by the turnout and said Occupy protesters needed to stick to their core message of narrowing the gap between rich and poor. Protesters did not help the cause by carrying profane signs and antagonizing police, she said.
“What I regret about some of the Occupy movements is the dilution of the message,” Filson said. “A lot of Occupy people have to realize that they’re being counterproductive.”
The future of the Occupy movement depends on whether the earnest activist-types like Filson stick around. They’re obviously frustrated at the lack of direct political action and the violent antagonism. The problem is, their goal – to dramatically increase the size of government – is in direct conflict with the goal of the radical anarchists. One of these groups is going to have to win out for control of the movement’s direction–and my money is on the extremists.
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Convicted eco-terrorist re-emerges in Southeast Portland
A convicted eco-terrorist has re-emerged in a Southeast Portland neighborhood.
Tre Arrow, also known as Michael Scarpitti, climbed a 50-foot tree Sunday on SE 44th and SE Stark Street and sat there for hours, shouting about the environment.
"It's pretty nuts he's doing all this just to get a point across," said onlooker Tara Stargrove.
"I think it's great, I've got all my neighbors over here, we're serving wine and bringing our porch chairs out," said neighbor Marisa Martin.
This is the first time we have heard from, or seen, Arrow since his release from prison in June of 2009.
Arrow rose to infamy when he climbed atop a Portland building to protest a timber sale, and most recently served time for firebombing trucks at a local logging company.
Arrow refused to climb down from the tree Sunday, despite several efforts by firefighters. Crews say after getting close to Arrow he claimed he wanted media attention regarding a message about nature, and he did not want to leave the tree with the firefighters.
Crews quickly called for a representative from Project Respond, who works with mental health patients, to confirm that he was not suicidal. Once the representative was on scene, firefighters accompanied her in the bucket back up to talk with the man. It was determined that he was not suicidal, nor was he a danger to himself or others.
"Our number one priority is safety. Once we determined the man was not suicidal we did not want to take any action that could cause harm to him or to firefighters." said Chief Dan Buckner.
After finally climbing down from the tree, Arrow told FOX 12 he stepped back into the public eye to redirect the Occupy Portland movement.
"When we think about the 99 percent, we need to think about every tree, every plant and every animal. If you occupy the heart, then you get connected to what's important. You realize this earth is worth protecting and saving."
Arrow says until a change is made, he plans to continue to find extreme ways to make his voice heard.
"You can look for me in the trees, I will see you soon."
CopyrightKPTV 2011. All rights reserved.
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Hmm, the 99.9 %
Full size
Wait, who am I kidding? Denialists? Truthful? Ha! ;-)
The Endenhoffer quote has been repeated out of context so many times as to be laughable, and then some. And, of course, when doing so, no one ever includes the first part of Endenhoffer's remark. Endenhoffer was simply stating that rich nations had expropriated--that is, stolen--natural resources from countries with lots of them, including the air they breathe. IOW, China and the U.S. and other high carbon polluters have stolen clean air from all nations, and replaced it with CO2 for which we're all paying a price. His common sense suggestion is that those high-polluting nations need to start paying their fair share to clean up their messes. Who--except a Koch-loving fool--could possibly disagree with that on any grounds?
One thing I've never understood is why "redistribution of wealth" from the rich to the poor is sneered at as vile socialism, while the ongoing and rapacious "redistribution of wealth" from the poor to the rich we've been witnessing all these decades is patted lovingly on the head and called good ol' American capitalism. Care to explain? (And please feel free to use any 1980s music videos you wish.)
P.S. -- Pointing out the non-credibility of a person who is being presented as credible isn't "character assasination"; it's due diligence.
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