Extreme Weather: Can we use predictions to plan?

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 1:23 AM GMT on November 22, 2011

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Extreme Weather: Can we use predictions to plan?

Been on an unexpected hiatus and coming back slowly. Thanks to Angela and Jeff for a bit of cover. First I want to regain my blogging legs a little and return to my previous entry on Politics, Events, and the Weather. In that entry I mentioned that Representative Ralph Hall announced that the Science, Space, and Technology Committee will start an investigation into NOAA and whether or not NOAA is forming an “unauthorized” climate service. Many federal agencies have been operating without a current year budget for a long time. I say that so that I can include the whole name of the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act that extends the Fiscal Year 2012 Continuing Resolution. If you want a good summary of budget information that includes climate and weather research then you might try this site. In the final negotiations for this Act, Congress prohibited NOAA from organizing existing resources to form a climate service.

Organizations such as the Reinsurance Association of American recognize the need to address climate change, and in fact they are taking action. Better collection, provision, and interpretation of climate information seem warranted, and that is the main purpose of the climate service reorganization.

At least implicitly, another call for better information comes from Congress - Representative Lynn Jenkins calls hearing on Missouri River Flooding. In 2011 there was an enormous flood of the Missouri River and many of its tributaries. This was one of several Billion Dollar Events during the summer of 2011 (see, Chris Burt, Weather.com, Earth and Sky).

In ClimateWatch Magazine there is a long article on the Missouri River Flood. As with many extreme events, several factors came together to cause this flood. There was large snowpack in both the Rocky Mountains and on the Plains in the Upper Missouri Basin. This was followed by heavy spring rains, that melted the snow yielding flows in May and June that equaled what is normally seen in the entire year. In this article there is also the description of the role of La Nina in the flood. La Nina is often described as the “negative” of El Nino. In the sense that El Nino is a warmer than average eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Nina is a cooler than average eastern Equatorial Pacific. It is well known that there are changes of weather patterns over the U.S. associated with El Nino and La Nina, but it is not so well known exactly what the impact of those changes might be.

This year we once again have a La Nina forming, and we have the prediction that it is highly likely that the event will persist and, perhaps, intensify. A question that arises is how can we better anticipate and plan for the consequences of the La Nina? Will we face another year of floods in the upper Missouri Valley? Will the drought continue in Texas? (Where I am collecting some El Nino – La Nina references.)





Figure 1. Characteristic position of wintertime jet streams during La Nina. From ClimateWatch Magazine: “The jet streams are high-altitude, racing rivers of air that can influence the path of storms as they track over North America from the Pacific Ocean. The jet streams meander and shift from day to day, but during La Niña events, they tend to follow paths that bring cold air and storms into the Upper Missouri River Basin. Map based on original graphics from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Adapted by Richard Rivera & Hunter Allen.”


As a climate change blogger, I have some responsibility for bringing this blog a bit to climate change. Currently, I think a lot about how to use information from climate models. I argue that thinking about how we can use a 2011 La Nina prediction to assess the risk of 2012 Missouri River flood is a pretty good exercise. Compared to a 100 year projection, this is strong prediction. We need to understand how global models inform regional scales. We have a problem with complex interactions between different features of the Earth’s weather and climate. We learn how to work with people who have to assess risk and make decisions.

OK: Here is the link to the Montana Conservation District's website. And here is a quote from Montana farmer Buzz Mattelin’s testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. Mattelin’s testimony is a remarkable summary and evaluation of the 2011 flood. Here’s one of Mattelin’s suggestions on how to improve the situation. He refers to the Corps, which is the Army Corps of Engineers who have the mission of managing the Missouri River.

“The Corps’ Annual Operating Plan (AOP) begins each new runoff year at a normal or average starting point when we rarely if ever have an average year. The Corps does a good job of incorporating mountain snowpack, plains snowpack, and short term precipitation into the AOP but falls short in using variables like soil moisture and climatic trends. Soil moisture data is readily available in weekly crop reports that rank soil moisture as short, adequate, or surplus. We should also look at El Nino and La Nina events. When you overlay past La Nina events with high runoff years in the Basin, there are definite correlations during the high runoff years in the 70’, 90’s and this year. Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO is another ocean temperature phenomenon that show promise as a predictor of precipitation on the Northern Plains. Incorporation of these types of variables into the AOP could significantly improve flood control.”

I will confess sitting in my office today talking about this problem, and we came pretty much to the same conclusion as Mattelin. Mattelin, many academic papers, and common sense say that if there are better forecasts, or perhaps more appropriately, longer lead times, then risk, damage, and cost can be reduced. We, the collective we, have much of the information that is required, but it is not all in one place. It is not all provided by a single agency. It is not integrated together towards a specific application like flooding in of the Missouri River. That service is not provided.

I am, let’s say, a minor participant in a project where over the next few months we will try to pull together this information and see if we can use this data better (initial link. If we can do it for a seasonal climate prediction, then we will learn to do it better for decadal climate projections. Stay tuned.

r


Here is a link to a new series on Green.TV on extreme weather. Let me know what you think.

And since people mentioned it ... Shearer and Rood on the media and extreme weather.

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Quoting iceagecoming:
000
NOAK49 PAFG 181139
PNSAFG
AKZ222-182345-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...RECORD SETTING COLD AT FAIRBANKS...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
YESTERDAY (NOVEMBER 17TH) WAS A BONE CHILLING 30 BELOW. THIS
SMASHED THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 17TH
OF 19 BELOW...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1904. THIS WAS THE 2ND EARLIEST
OCCURRENCE ON RECORD OF A 30 BELOW HIGH AT FAIRBANKS SO EARLY IN
THE WINTER SEASON. THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE WAS BACK ON NOVEMBER
9TH 1989 WHEN THE HIGH WAS ALSO 30 BELOW.

THE LOW OF 41 BELOW ALSO SET A NEW RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE. THE
OLD RECORD OF 39 BELOW WAS SET IN 1969.

THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A 40 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT IN NOVEMBER WAS
BACK IN 1994...BUT IT OCCURRED MUCH LATER IN THE MONTH ON THE 30TH
WHEN THE LOW WAS 45 BELOW. THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A 40 BELOW THIS
EARLY IN THE MONTH WAS BACK IN 1989 WHEN THERE WAS A LOW OF 42
BELOW ON THE 10TH. THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER OF 54 BELOW WILL REMAIN SAFE. THIS RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED
BACK ON NOVEMBER 29TH 1909.

WE HAVE ALSO ALREADY BROKEN THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY
(NOVEMBER 18TH). THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 33 BELOW WAS SET BACK IN
1969. THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY
HAS BEEN 36 BELOW.

THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 19 BELOW...AND THAT
RECORD WILL ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY.


Link



Sitka sets monthly snowfall record
by The Associated Press
Nov 29, 2011 | 1096 views | 1 1 comments | 5 5 recommendations | email to a friend | print
SITKA, Alaska - You can officially call it snowy Sitka.

KCAW reports (http://bit.ly/usZPKB) the city's official snowfall for November went to 32 inches with weekend snowfall.

That beat the record of 30.7 inches of snow set in 1990.

The temperatures are supposed to warm up this week, prompting the National Weather Service to advise people to be aware of avalanche danger.

Read more: Fairbanks Daily News-Miner - Sitka sets monthly snowfall record

Link




Regional not global.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
What's this blogs malfunction? You want a solution but when you get a solution you ignore it. How does that help the planet?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
000
NOAK49 PAFG 181139
PNSAFG
AKZ222-182345-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...RECORD SETTING COLD AT FAIRBANKS...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
YESTERDAY (NOVEMBER 17TH) WAS A BONE CHILLING 30 BELOW. THIS
SMASHED THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 17TH
OF 19 BELOW...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1904. THIS WAS THE 2ND EARLIEST
OCCURRENCE ON RECORD OF A 30 BELOW HIGH AT FAIRBANKS SO EARLY IN
THE WINTER SEASON. THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE WAS BACK ON NOVEMBER
9TH 1989 WHEN THE HIGH WAS ALSO 30 BELOW.

THE LOW OF 41 BELOW ALSO SET A NEW RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE. THE
OLD RECORD OF 39 BELOW WAS SET IN 1969.

THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A 40 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT IN NOVEMBER WAS
BACK IN 1994...BUT IT OCCURRED MUCH LATER IN THE MONTH ON THE 30TH
WHEN THE LOW WAS 45 BELOW. THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A 40 BELOW THIS
EARLY IN THE MONTH WAS BACK IN 1989 WHEN THERE WAS A LOW OF 42
BELOW ON THE 10TH. THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER OF 54 BELOW WILL REMAIN SAFE. THIS RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED
BACK ON NOVEMBER 29TH 1909.

WE HAVE ALSO ALREADY BROKEN THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY
(NOVEMBER 18TH). THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 33 BELOW WAS SET BACK IN
1969. THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY
HAS BEEN 36 BELOW.

THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 19 BELOW...AND THAT
RECORD WILL ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY.


Link



Sitka sets monthly snowfall record
by The Associated Press
Nov 29, 2011 | 1096 views | 1 1 comments | 5 5 recommendations | email to a friend | print
SITKA, Alaska - You can officially call it snowy Sitka.

KCAW reports (http://bit.ly/usZPKB) the city's official snowfall for November went to 32 inches with weekend snowfall.

That beat the record of 30.7 inches of snow set in 1990.

The temperatures are supposed to warm up this week, prompting the National Weather Service to advise people to be aware of avalanche danger.

Read more: Fairbanks Daily News-Miner - Sitka sets monthly snowfall record

Link


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
201. spbloom

Excellent post an I mostly concur.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125552
Quoting spbloom:
Thanks, Patrap, I'll have a look. I certainly do understand that many climate scientists prefer to not subject themselves to public flaming.

But speaking of drought, I'm sure Seastep will want to know about our own big drought problem, which we know (from science not based on shaky regional model projections) is only going to get worse. If Seastep lives in Texas, though, I'm confident she/he was able to obtain personal reassurance by attending Rick Perry's prayer meeting to end the drought. That worked, right? Oh wait...

Just to note that the reason further drying is so much more certain for Texas and the Southwest but not the Sahel is because the former will be driven by the expansion of the tropics (pushing the rest of the atmospheric circulation poleward, pretty much like the La Nina pattern graphic in Ricky's post). This is an effect that *must* happen with climate warming, unless some denialist would like to argue that warming air doesn't expand (yeah yeah, I know this is the place to find one). Of course this will be happening all over the world in both hemispheres. (People with met knowledge will know that what I'm describing here is movement of the subtropics, i.e. the descending branches of the Hadley cells.)

Conveniently for the Sahel, they're too far south to suffer from this effect (instead, it's the Mediterranean region that's already getting it), and if anything might expect a bit more precipitation as the tropical belt expands. Effects of the expansion will of course vary quite a lot based on geography, and unfortunately for the Sahel at least one leading model (inconveniently the one that does the best job of replicating last-century precipitation there) projects yet more drying there over the course of this century, driven by increasing SSTs. (A nice up-to-date narrative on this latter research is here.)

Good luck to them, since it seems increasingly likely that they won't be getting much help from us.




Unless of course somehow we can cool the ocean currents. Now how do you think that may happen? Oh wait! I have already been there and done that. Let me know if someone is interested.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20219
BOMBSHELL

Tempgate 1.0 Links - They're real and they're spectacular!

Three links, to where to download the "non calibrated" and "non-noise-adjusted" latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures, is posted below the graph - This will be a top post for a few days - NEW STORIES APPEAR BELOW THIS ONE - I've also reversed the order of the updates to be newest at top for better visibility - Xandra



Link Link Link
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1224
Quoting spbloom:
Thanks, Patrap, I'll have a look. I certainly do understand that many climate scientists prefer to not subject themselves to public flaming.

But speaking of drought, I'm sure Seastep will want to know about our own big drought problem, which we know (from science not based on shaky regional model projections) is only going to get worse. If Seastep lives in Texas, though, I'm confident she/he was able to obtain personal reassurance by attending Rick Perry's prayer meeting to end the drought. That worked, right? Oh wait...

Just to note that the reason further drying is so much more certain for Texas and the Southwest but not the Sahel is because the former will be driven by the expansion of the tropics (pushing the rest of the atmospheric circulation poleward, pretty much like the La Nina pattern graphic in Ricky's post). This is an effect that *must* happen with climate warming, unless some denialist would like to argue that warming air doesn't expand (yeah yeah, I know this is the place to find one). Of course this will be happening all over the world in both hemispheres. (People with met knowledge will know that what I'm describing here is movement of the subtropics, i.e. the descending branches of the Hadley cells.)

Conveniently for the Sahel, they're too far south to suffer from this effect (instead, it's the Mediterranean region that's already getting it), and if anything might expect a bit more precipitation as the tropical belt expands. Effects of the expansion will of course vary quite a lot based on geography, and unfortunately for the Sahel at least one leading model (inconveniently the one that does the best job of replicating last-century precipitation there) projects yet more drying there over the course of this century, driven by increasing SSTs. (A nice up-to-date narrative on this latter research is here.)

Good luck to them, since it seems increasingly likely that they won't be getting much help from us.




Your link did not work. Here is the corrected link: Our own big drought problem

Thank you for all of the information you provide, spbloom.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
While portions of the center of the conceptual universe (to this day the proud home of the Lost Cause, or so it seems sometimes) suffer under the nearly insuperable double burden of slightly unseasonable snow and somewhat higher-than-normal temperatures, things are different farther north (apologies for the Dutch translation on that last one).
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 299
Thanks, Patrap, I'll have a look. I certainly do understand that many climate scientists prefer to not subject themselves to public flaming.

But speaking of drought, I'm sure Seastep will want to know about our own big drought problem, which we know (from science not based on shaky regional model projections) is only going to get worse. If Seastep lives in Texas, though, I'm confident she/he was able to obtain personal reassurance by attending Rick Perry's prayer meeting to end the drought. That worked, right? Oh wait...

Just to note that the reason further drying is so much more certain for Texas and the Southwest but not the Sahel is because the former will be driven by the expansion of the tropics (pushing the rest of the atmospheric circulation poleward, pretty much like the La Nina pattern graphic in Ricky's post). This is an effect that *must* happen with climate warming, unless some denialist would like to argue that warming air doesn't expand (yeah yeah, I know this is the place to find one). Of course this will be happening all over the world in both hemispheres. (People with met knowledge will know that what I'm describing here is movement of the subtropics, i.e. the descending branches of the Hadley cells.)

Conveniently for the Sahel, they're too far south to suffer from this effect (instead, it's the Mediterranean region that's already getting it), and if anything might expect a bit more precipitation as the tropical belt expands. Effects of the expansion will of course vary quite a lot based on geography, and unfortunately for the Sahel at least one leading model (inconveniently the one that does the best job of replicating last-century precipitation there) projects yet more drying there over the course of this century, driven by increasing SSTs. (A nice up-to-date narrative on this latter research is here.)

Good luck to them, since it seems increasingly likely that they won't be getting much help from us.


Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 299
Quoting JBastardi:
The warmists are so uncertain of their theories that they are working on a "backup" plan in case the world is actually cooling:

Link
Congratulations! You actually made me look for the first time in a while. As usual though, it's just another one of your total misrepresentations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting greentortuloni:


Grazie, if that was for my error. If not, nice link anyway.
Il tuo welcom. That was what I guessed you were referencing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The Atmosphere trends toward Chaos, upset the scales of balance by introducing Fossil Fuel Burning and other Mass Pollutants into the Atmosphere is akin easily to Terraforming on a Grand scale.

Its a Bad trend what we're seeing in the predictive Models,

.."everything we thought would occur in 30-50 years seems more likely to have begun earlier by decadel increments of 2-3 depending on which model one goes with"

All show the trend increasing faster as the Globalization of new Areas increase the C02 input rate.



Geico or the above?

..,,,seriously,, Its from a private conversation and I'd rather not disclose her name.

But the youtube is available on my Patrap channel.

...circa May 2011


..sure as the dust, blow's high in June, when moving thru Kashmir
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125552
Re #184: PurpleDrank doesn't even recycle. Perfect.

Re #187/8: Do you think all recommendations for adaptation (all that linked document was, really) are propaganda? In the larger picture, the fact is that the Sahel (the region in which Lake Chad is located) suffered a nasty drought not long ago from which recovery has been very limited, i.e. it's still raining much less than in the first half of the last century. Climate models don't yet do regions well, but there are reasons to think things will only get worse for the Sahel. Another interesting fact is that in Africa, which in multiple regions is on the front line of climate change, it's very difficult to find *any* AGW denialists. Yet they are comparatively thick on the ground in rich countries insulated from climate change impacts. Go figure.

For anyone who actually cares, see here for lots of peer-reviewed research on the subject.

Re #189: Oh look, it's winter once more and time for iceagecoming to frolic. Now let's see some snow angels.

Re #194: Link for that quote? TIA.

Re #195: Illiterate and innumerate. Impressive, in a manner of speaking.
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 299
Quoting JBastardi:
The warmists are so uncertain of their theories that they are working on a "backup" plan in case the world is actually cooling:

Link


Did you even read the email?

This is what you came up with? One sentence that is taken out of context? ... Keep trying, J. You may actually reverse the AGW someday. Most likely, it will not be today.

Do not worry, J. We know quite well how to warm the planet, "in case the world is actually cooling".
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
The warmists are so uncertain of their theories that they are working on a "backup" plan in case the world is actually cooling:

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
The Atmosphere trends toward Chaos, upset the scales of balance by introducing Fossil Fuel Burning and other Mass Pollutants into the Atmosphere is akin easily to Terraforming on a Grand scale.

Its a Bad trend what we're seeing in the predictive Models,

.."everything we thought would occur in 30-50 years seems more likely to have begun earlier by decadel increments of 2-3 depending on which model one goes with"

All show the trend increasing faster as the Globalization of new Areas increase the C02 input rate.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125552
Quoting iceagecoming:
And, the image below is from Northwest Marion County, near the Mississippi line…

Alabama





How rare is November snow in the South? According to Weather Channel meteorologist Jon Erdman, the last time measurable snow fell in Birmingham, Ala., was in 1950, and in Nashville, it most recently fell in 1966.

In Memphis, Erdman reported that there have been only three days with snow in November since 1875.

The snow tapered off early today in the South, Ressler said, but cool temperatures will remain .

The lower Great Lakes will see significant rain and snow today. The heaviest snow is likely in central Michigan. In the East, the warmth will continue for one more day, before temperatures return to late-November averages by Wednesday and Thursday.

Copyright © 2010 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 28th, 2011 at 4:40 pm and is filed under USA Today News.



This image below is from Mentone, in DeKalb County


Nice picture! Christmas is right around the corner and that picture would look nice above the mantle.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Quoting iceagecoming:
And, the image below is from Northwest Marion County, near the Mississippi line…
How rare is November snow in the South? According to Weather Channel meteorologist Jon Erdman, the last time measurable snow fell in Birmingham, Ala., was in 1950, and in Nashville, it most recently fell in 1966.

In Memphis, Erdman reported that there have been only three days with snow in November since 1875.

The snow tapered off early today in the South, Ressler said, but cool temperatures will remain .

The lower Great Lakes will see significant rain and snow today. The heaviest snow is likely in central Michigan. In the East, the warmth will continue for one more day, before temperatures return to late-November averages by Wednesday and Thursday

November snow in the area is rare indeed. But, just as with the historic late October snowstorm in the Northeast, the record mid-South snowfall doesn't appear to be due to a massive Arctic outbreak of cold, but rather an abnormal amount of atmospheric moisture meeting up with normal (or slightly below normal) temps. All through the region, there hasn't as of this writing been a single record daily low temperature recorded (though I imagine some may trickle in over the next few days).

Bottom line, then: average late autumn temps, along with way above average available moisture. IOW, just the kind of thing predicted by a certain theory.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
Quoting LowerCal:
The Impacts of Global Climate Change in Africa: the Lake Chad, Adaptation and Vulnerability


Grazie, if that was for my error. If not, nice link anyway.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting Seastep:
176. greentortuloni

That's called propaganda. (Didn't read it, only your comment, but can't imagine it would matter)


Well it didn't matter since the link was screwed up anyway.

The point is that the change in the climate CAN kill millions and CAN cost trillions with even very small changes in weather patterns. That cost needs to be stacked against the hypothetical 'economy ruining costs that will make your, Yes your family Mr and Mrs regular guy America, starve!' That sort of stuff is propaganda. What is worse is that it is the worst sort of Worm-tongue sniveling right wing defeatist propaganda that not only destroys America's economy but destroys our spirit as well.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
And, the image below is from Northwest Marion County, near the Mississippi line…

Alabama





How rare is November snow in the South? According to Weather Channel meteorologist Jon Erdman, the last time measurable snow fell in Birmingham, Ala., was in 1950, and in Nashville, it most recently fell in 1966.

In Memphis, Erdman reported that there have been only three days with snow in November since 1875.

The snow tapered off early today in the South, Ressler said, but cool temperatures will remain .

The lower Great Lakes will see significant rain and snow today. The heaviest snow is likely in central Michigan. In the East, the warmth will continue for one more day, before temperatures return to late-November averages by Wednesday and Thursday.

Copyright © 2010 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 28th, 2011 at 4:40 pm and is filed under USA Today News.



This image below is from Mentone, in DeKalb County
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
176. greentortuloni

Ok. Your post is certainly propaganda.

"This research work discovered how the rate of deforestation, desertification and hydro electric dams constructions among other human activities..."

Unbelievable with the crap:

HTML:

Quoting gtort:effects of climate change on //href="" what="" we="" find="" here="" that="" is="" scientifically="" provable,="" immutable="" facts="" doesn't="" necessarily="" get="" absorbed="" for="" the="" moment="" by="" political="" class="" who="" simply="" don't="" want="" to="" know="" ugly="" truth="" world="" a="" mess.""="" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow"
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
176. greentortuloni

That's called propaganda. (Didn't read it, only your comment, but can't imagine it would matter)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
Climate change: 2011 temperatures the hottest ever during La Nina

The world is getting hotter, with 2011 one of the warmest years on record, and humans are to blame, a report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on Tuesday.

It warned increasing global average temperatures were expected to amplify floods, droughts and other extreme weather patterns.

"Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities," WMO Deputy Secretary-General Jerry Lengoasa told reporters in Durban, where almost 200 nations are gathered for U.N. climate talks.

The WMO, part of the United Nations, said the warmest 13 years of average global temperatures have all occurred in the 15 years since 1997. That has contributed to extreme weather conditions which increase the intensity of droughts and heavy precipitation across the world, it said.

"Global temperatures in 2011 are currently the tenth highest on record and are higher than any previous year with a La Nina event, which has a relative cooling influence," it said

This year, the global climate was influenced heavily by the strong La Nina, a natural phenomenon usually linked to extreme weather in Asia-Pacific, South America and Africa, which developed in the tropical Pacific in the second half of 2010 and continued until May 2011.

One of the strongest such events in 60 years, it was closely associated with the drought in east Africa, islands in the central equatorial Pacific and the United States, as well as severe flooding in other parts of the world.

The WMO report said the extent of Arctic sea ice in 2011 was the second lowest on record, and its volume was the lowest.
[Ed: Arctic Sea ice area was the lowest on record, as well.]

It said the build-up of greenhouse gases put the world at a tipping point of irreversible changes in ecosystems.


Full Christian Science Monitor article
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
Quoting PurpleDrank:
I always drop by to view the ole' climate change blog.

Its like checking the horoscope before you throw the paper out.



Cool story bro.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I always drop by to view the ole' climate change blog.

Its like checking the horoscope before you throw the paper out.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, dear lord. Is Pielke desperate, or what? In a nutshell, he seems to be saying:

--Abnormal weather has now been classified as normal. Therefore, now that the weather is normal again, there can't possibly be any warming going on.

--Societal upheavals brought about by climate change will be far more disturbing than climate change itself. Therefore, climate change can be eliminated as a problem. So let's concentrate on those upheavals. But now that climate change has been eliminated, those upheavals won't be bad after all. So let's not worry about them either.

Incredible that he'd write it--and even more incredible that anyone would believe it.


Nicely summarized! RP Sr. is going farther and farther off the rails. Jr. too, in a different way.
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 299
Quoting greentortuloni:
effects of climate change on one lake in africa

In all honesty I don't know enough about this situation personally so I am just going with what the article says - the link specifically mentions the problem with lack of rains over years and drought as the main problem - but i don't want to drift into JB, Oss, et al territory by not providing a disclaimer.


However the quote I liked is this one: "What we find here that is scientifically provable, immutable facts doesn't necessarily get absorbed for the moment by the political class who simply don't want to know the ugly truth that the world is a mess."


Need the correct link. TIA.
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 299
Quoting overwash12:
Is this a reliable source?Link TIA!


overwash12, this is a link to an OP ED. The article is the opinion of the author. We all have our opinions.

This quote is from that article:
""save the planet" -- burden energy producers with unsustainable costs and limitations, leading to higher energy prices for consumers when many families cannot afford to pay more to heat and light their homes."

Let us take a brief look at the quote. Higher energy costs are coming, no matter what. Do you follow the oil market? What happens every time the economy begins to improve? One thing that happens is that the price of the barrel of oil rises under speculation that the demand for oil will rise accordingly. While this speculation is well reasoned it also effectively kills any further economic growth due to the higher cost of doing, well, anything. Even with stagnation in economic growth the price of the barrel of oil still will drift upwards. As resources become less available we will see a rise in cost for that resource. We, the citizens of Earth, are expected to reach peak oil between 2016 and 2020. The next crisis: prepare for peak oil You can rest assured that green energy will be blamed for any rise in oil prices by not allowing drilling everywhere now but, that will not be the truth. Also, should we allow drilling everywhere any new finds will likely come at a much higher cost of production. The "easy" oil has long ago been tapped.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Quoting Ossqss:

168, the operative word was "LINKS". .... As in linked connections to papers in the article. Seems that may have slipped by you again :)

Here, let me make it easier for you.

http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2011/ 05/r-365.pdf


I got the quotes from the first link provided in your link:

Link

Was there any reason to go to any of the other links?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Is this a reliable source?Link TIA!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
Quoting Ossqss:




Interesting links contained .....

The Times They Are A-Changin


Oh, dear lord. Is Pielke desperate, or what? In a nutshell, he seems to be saying:

--Abnormal weather has now been classified as normal. Therefore, now that the weather is normal again, there can't possibly be any warming going on.

--Societal upheavals brought about by climate change will be far more disturbing than climate change itself. Therefore, climate change can be eliminated as a problem. So let's concentrate on those upheavals. But now that climate change has been eliminated, those upheavals won't be bad after all. So let's not worry about them either.

Incredible that he'd write it--and even more incredible that anyone would believe it.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
effects of climate change on one lake in africa

In all honesty I don't know enough about this situation personally so I am just going with what the article says - the link specifically mentions the problem with lack of rains over years and drought as the main problem - but i don't want to drift into JB, Oss, et al territory by not providing a disclaimer.


However the quote I liked is this one: "What we find here that is scientifically provable, immutable facts doesn't necessarily get absorbed for the moment by the political class who simply don't want to know the ugly truth that the world is a mess."
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Durban Climate Change Conference: 2011 'caps decade tying record for heat'

The year 2011 caps a decade that ties the record as the hottest ever measured, the WMO said in its annual report on climate trends and extreme weather events, unveiled at UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa.

"Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities," WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a statement, adding that policy-makers should take note of the findings.

"Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2-2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans," he said.

Scientists believe that any rise above the 2.0 threshold could trigger far-reaching and irreversible changes on Earth over land and in the seas.

The 2002-2011 period equals 2001-2010 as the warmest decade since 1850, the report said.



Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1224

168, the operative word was "LINKS". .... As in linked connections to papers in the article. Seems that may have slipped by you again :)

Here, let me make it easier for you.

http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2011/ 05/r-365.pdf
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
While deniers (such as certain one-time small-market TV weather readers) continue to lie and stonewall, people who are really invested in the future aren't pulling any punches.

Munich Re--the worldwide reinsurance company based in Germany--says that "...the 2.C target that scientists consider the maximum for containing global warming within manageable limits is virtually no longer attainable". The company's own analysis also shows that registered loss occurrences from extreme weather have increased nearly threefold in the last three decades. Not the dollar amount; the actual number of extreme weather events.

"The number of flood loss events has gone up by a factor of more than three and the number of windstorm natural catastrophes has more than doubled.

"Whereas the increasing losses are primarily due to socio-economic developments (population growth, rising values, settlement patterns), the data probably cannot be fully explained without climate change, especially as the number of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other geophysical events have only increased slightly.

"Professor Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research, comments: 'It's as if the weather machine had shifted up a gear. We believe that we can already see this in retrospect in our last 30 years’ data for some regions, although the most severe impacts of global warming are still to come.'"
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
If you think it's been warmer than normal, you're correct. In the past week alone, record daily high (and high minimum) temperatures in the US have outnumbered record daily lows (and low maximums) by a very un-November-like 949 to 35, a ratio of better than 27 to 1. (For the year to date, record highs of all types have outnumbered record lows of all types by a very lopsided 53,484 to 24,133, or 2.22 to 1.)

As has been stated many times before, such stats by themselves don't prove much. But in a stable climate, the high and low numbers would roughly balance themselves out in the long term--yet when looked at on a decadal scale, the actual numbers are increasingly lopsided. It's really just more evidence (as if any were needed) that things are getting warmer, and warmer, and warmer...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
000
NOUS44 KHUN 282019
PNSHUN
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-290600-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
219 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...FIRST SNOW HISTORY FOR NORTH ALABAMA...

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF UP
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA. THIS BEGS THE
QUESTION...HOW UNUSUAL IS THIS EARLY SEASON SNOW EVENT?

THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF ANY SNOWFALL /MEASURABLE OR NOT/ AT
HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS DECEMBER 14. FOR MUSCLE
SHOALS...THIS AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS DECEMBER 17. HOWEVER...SNOW
FLURRIES IN NOVEMBER ARE NOT UNUSUAL.

THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS JANUARY 9 AT
HUNTSVILLE...AND JANUARY 14 AT MUSCLE SHOALS. THE EARLIEST-EVER
1-INCH SNOWFALL ON RECORD OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 2 1966...WHEN 4 INCHES
OF SNOW FELL AT HUNTSVILLE...AND 1 INCH FELL AT MUSCLE SHOALS.

THE RECORD FOR NOVEMBER SNOWFALL AT HUNTSVILLE IS THE 4 INCH STORM ON
NOVEMBER 2 1966. THE RECORD NOVEMBER SNOWFALL AT MUSCLE SHOALS IS
ALSO 4 INCHES...WHICH OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 24 1950.

$$

BCC

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:




Interesting links contained .....

The Times They Are A-Changin



Hey, it's Oss, without content and links to youtube...

yea! we are all saved!
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting Ossqss:




Interesting links contained .....

“The Times They Are A-Changin”



"1. We should remember that the Earth does its business through extreme events and always has. Extremes are not suspensions of the normal order; they are its fulfillment."

Ossqss, I have seen you post some ridiculous links but, you have out done yourself with this one. Extreme events do occur and have occurred, in the past. Super volcanoes, the poles reversing polarity and meteors/asteroids with enough mass hitting Earth that they disrupt the climate. Have you seen any other these extreme events lately? Extreme events disrupt what is normal, at that time. Extreme events fulfill themselves and create a "new normal". In other words, extreme events do suspend what was normal before the extreme event.

"2. Extremes leave no sphere of the natural or social or technological world unaffected and the disruptions in all those normally distinct spheres intereact with each other, compounding the challenge."

I cannot argue that point. Guess what extreme we are seeing now, with concern to the atmosphere?

"3. Social change matters more to what extreme events and disasters portend for our future than does climate change."

Very well stated, if you read it backwards. Climate change will bring about social change. Along with economic and technological change.

"4. We’ve got to get past reacting to the crisis of the moment."

What?!?!?! Ignore it and it will go away? The "head in the sand" approach always negates any crisis of the moment? I see. BTW, ostriches do not actually stick their head in the sand. This seems to be strictly a human trait.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Quoting spbloom:
Re #148: Even inbreeding couldn't have made you that stupid. So... you're lying! Imagine that.

For those who don't know this trick, the Canadian archipelago is a small part of the Arctic that's far enough north that it reliably freezes over by this time of year. That has remained true as summer sea ice levels get lower and lower, and will remain true long after the Arctic Ocean starts to experience ice-free periods.


Obviously your ambition blinded you to what was actually posted. Quite the petty comment, and I don't think many would disagree.

Look up transference in your psychology, or what you incorrectly referenced as physiology, hand book from earlier. LOL !
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
Quoting Neapolitan:

If a detective actually finds a fingerprint, or a taped confession, or an email showing wrongdoing, no, that is not cherry picking at all. But if that same detective keeps shouting that he has a fingerprint when it's been proven dozens of times before that the fingerprint is his own, or when he keeps screaming that he has a taped confession that turns out to be awkwardly spliced-together bits of illegally-recorded personal conversations, or when he claims to have emails that show wrongdoing long after numerous independent investigations have proven beyond a doubt that there was absolutely no wrongdoing whatsoever, he ceases to be a detective and turns into the crazy man at the corner shouting about non-existent monsters.

I'm sure "the time will come", as you claim. After all, Salem's town fathers were convinced witchcraft was rampant in their village, and once invested deeply in that fantasy, they proceeded to invent witches where none existed. But after intelligence regained control, the witch hunters were forced out under humiliation and embarrassment. Remember that.

I'm not concerned with my own worries. The entire planet has something to fear: the ongoing daily pumping of tens of trillions of liters of fossil fuel-derived CO2 into the environment while that very fossil fuel industry spares no expense in ensuring that that pumping continues unabated for as long as possible.




Interesting links contained .....

The Times They Are A-Changin

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
Quoting theshepherd:
If one finds a fingerprint on a weapon found at the scene of a crime despite the Defense's claim of innocence, is that cherry picking?

If one has a taped confession from the perpetrator despite the Defense's claim of innocence, is that cherry picking?

If one finds an email showing wrong doing buried in a file of emails, is that cherry picking?

Like I've said before, and will continue to say, it ain't over until sworn testimony supports peer review. And that time "will" come.

Everyone here, though few will admit, that sworn testimony subject to the laws of perjury is the only way to dispel the alarm created by the likes of those in question.

Blow all the smoke you want, but get used to it. The time will come.

I would think that this is exactly the solution you seek...You have nothing to fear.



If a detective actually finds a fingerprint, or a taped confession, or an email showing wrongdoing, no, that is not cherry picking at all. But if that same detective keeps shouting that he has a fingerprint when it's been proven dozens of times before that the fingerprint is his own, or when he keeps screaming that he has a taped confession that turns out to be awkwardly spliced-together bits of illegally-recorded personal conversations, or when he claims to have emails that show wrongdoing long after numerous independent investigations have proven beyond a doubt that there was absolutely no wrongdoing whatsoever, he ceases to be a detective and turns into the crazy man at the corner shouting about non-existent monsters.

I'm sure "the time will come", as you claim. After all, Salem's town fathers were convinced witchcraft was rampant in their village, and once invested deeply in that fantasy, they proceeded to invent witches where none existed. But after intelligence regained control, the witch hunters were forced out under humiliation and embarrassment. Remember that.

I'm not concerned with my own worries. The entire planet has something to fear: the ongoing daily pumping of tens of trillions of liters of fossil fuel-derived CO2 into the environment while that very fossil fuel industry spares no expense in ensuring that that pumping continues unabated for as long as possible.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
If one finds a fingerprint on a weapon found at the scene of a crime despite the Defense's claim of innocence, is that cherry picking?

If one has a taped confession from the perpetrator despite the Defense's claim of innocence, is that cherry picking?

If one finds an email showing wrong doing buried in a file of emails, is that cherry picking?

Like I've said before, and will continue to say, it ain't over until sworn testimony supports peer review. And that time "will" come.

Everyone here, though few will admit, that sworn testimony subject to the laws of perjury is the only way to dispel the alarm created by the likes of those in question.

Blow all the smoke you want, but get used to it. The time will come.

I would think that this is exactly the solution you seek...You have nothing to fear.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JBastardi:
The emails show that they are concocting this entire scheme.
The show nothing of the kind. Without cherry-picking a few quotes out of context, can you please demonstrate where they've done so?
Quoting JBastardi:
We have a few so-called scientists who have now been caught fabricating and manipulating the data to comport with their ideology.
No, we don't. Without cherry-picking a few quotes out of context, can you please demonstrate where they've done so?
Quoting JBastardi:
They should have destroyed all of their email.
No, they shouldn't have. The fact that they didn't destroy them goes a long way toward demonstrating their innocence.
Quoting JBastardi:
They peer-review each others' papers and discredit and exclude any study which contradicts "the cause."
That may be one way to look at it. Another way might be to realize that there are so many peer-reviewed papers in support of AGWT for the same reason there are so many in support of, say, evolution: there are no viable alternative theories.
Quoting JBastardi:
They have admitted so in their email.
No, they haven't. Without cherry-picking a few quotes out of context, can you please demonstrate where they've done so?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1224
The emails show that they are concocting this entire scheme. We have a few so-called scientists who have now been caught fabricating and manipulating the data to comport with their ideology. They should have destroyed all of their email. They peer-review each others' papers and discredit and exclude any study which contradicts "the cause." They have admitted so in their email.
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting JBastardi:
How can warmists say global temps are on the increase when are data for the 1900s are extremely lacking?

Link
Quoting JBastardi:
It's all falling apart. Climate sensitivity cannot be determined with present data:

Link

It's so funny how denialists will intentionally ignore and disregard a thousand current peer-reviewed pieces of literature, yet they will so easily and gullibly latch onto a few single old, stolen, cherry-picked, out-of-context personal emails.

Looks like Watts is clinging for dear life to this latest batch of emails; the increasing desperation and flop sweat is heavy in his every posting. The vindication of climate science and scientists after "climategate" part I discredited him many times over, and the BEST project's results demolished his life's work in an instant. If I were him, I'd be prepping my resume; surely there's at least one mid-market radio station somewhere that will hire him to do weather and traffic...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
How can warmists say global temps are on the increase when are data for the 1900s are extremely lacking?

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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