Extreme Weather: Can we use predictions to plan?

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 1:23 AM GMT on November 22, 2011

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Extreme Weather: Can we use predictions to plan?

Been on an unexpected hiatus and coming back slowly. Thanks to Angela and Jeff for a bit of cover. First I want to regain my blogging legs a little and return to my previous entry on Politics, Events, and the Weather. In that entry I mentioned that Representative Ralph Hall announced that the Science, Space, and Technology Committee will start an investigation into NOAA and whether or not NOAA is forming an “unauthorized” climate service. Many federal agencies have been operating without a current year budget for a long time. I say that so that I can include the whole name of the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act that extends the Fiscal Year 2012 Continuing Resolution. If you want a good summary of budget information that includes climate and weather research then you might try this site. In the final negotiations for this Act, Congress prohibited NOAA from organizing existing resources to form a climate service.

Organizations such as the Reinsurance Association of American recognize the need to address climate change, and in fact they are taking action. Better collection, provision, and interpretation of climate information seem warranted, and that is the main purpose of the climate service reorganization.

At least implicitly, another call for better information comes from Congress - Representative Lynn Jenkins calls hearing on Missouri River Flooding. In 2011 there was an enormous flood of the Missouri River and many of its tributaries. This was one of several Billion Dollar Events during the summer of 2011 (see, Chris Burt, Weather.com, Earth and Sky).

In ClimateWatch Magazine there is a long article on the Missouri River Flood. As with many extreme events, several factors came together to cause this flood. There was large snowpack in both the Rocky Mountains and on the Plains in the Upper Missouri Basin. This was followed by heavy spring rains, that melted the snow yielding flows in May and June that equaled what is normally seen in the entire year. In this article there is also the description of the role of La Nina in the flood. La Nina is often described as the “negative” of El Nino. In the sense that El Nino is a warmer than average eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Nina is a cooler than average eastern Equatorial Pacific. It is well known that there are changes of weather patterns over the U.S. associated with El Nino and La Nina, but it is not so well known exactly what the impact of those changes might be.

This year we once again have a La Nina forming, and we have the prediction that it is highly likely that the event will persist and, perhaps, intensify. A question that arises is how can we better anticipate and plan for the consequences of the La Nina? Will we face another year of floods in the upper Missouri Valley? Will the drought continue in Texas? (Where I am collecting some El Nino – La Nina references.)





Figure 1. Characteristic position of wintertime jet streams during La Nina. From ClimateWatch Magazine: “The jet streams are high-altitude, racing rivers of air that can influence the path of storms as they track over North America from the Pacific Ocean. The jet streams meander and shift from day to day, but during La Niña events, they tend to follow paths that bring cold air and storms into the Upper Missouri River Basin. Map based on original graphics from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Adapted by Richard Rivera & Hunter Allen.”


As a climate change blogger, I have some responsibility for bringing this blog a bit to climate change. Currently, I think a lot about how to use information from climate models. I argue that thinking about how we can use a 2011 La Nina prediction to assess the risk of 2012 Missouri River flood is a pretty good exercise. Compared to a 100 year projection, this is strong prediction. We need to understand how global models inform regional scales. We have a problem with complex interactions between different features of the Earth’s weather and climate. We learn how to work with people who have to assess risk and make decisions.

OK: Here is the link to the Montana Conservation District's website. And here is a quote from Montana farmer Buzz Mattelin’s testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. Mattelin’s testimony is a remarkable summary and evaluation of the 2011 flood. Here’s one of Mattelin’s suggestions on how to improve the situation. He refers to the Corps, which is the Army Corps of Engineers who have the mission of managing the Missouri River.

“The Corps’ Annual Operating Plan (AOP) begins each new runoff year at a normal or average starting point when we rarely if ever have an average year. The Corps does a good job of incorporating mountain snowpack, plains snowpack, and short term precipitation into the AOP but falls short in using variables like soil moisture and climatic trends. Soil moisture data is readily available in weekly crop reports that rank soil moisture as short, adequate, or surplus. We should also look at El Nino and La Nina events. When you overlay past La Nina events with high runoff years in the Basin, there are definite correlations during the high runoff years in the 70’, 90’s and this year. Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO is another ocean temperature phenomenon that show promise as a predictor of precipitation on the Northern Plains. Incorporation of these types of variables into the AOP could significantly improve flood control.”

I will confess sitting in my office today talking about this problem, and we came pretty much to the same conclusion as Mattelin. Mattelin, many academic papers, and common sense say that if there are better forecasts, or perhaps more appropriately, longer lead times, then risk, damage, and cost can be reduced. We, the collective we, have much of the information that is required, but it is not all in one place. It is not all provided by a single agency. It is not integrated together towards a specific application like flooding in of the Missouri River. That service is not provided.

I am, let’s say, a minor participant in a project where over the next few months we will try to pull together this information and see if we can use this data better (initial link. If we can do it for a seasonal climate prediction, then we will learn to do it better for decadal climate projections. Stay tuned.

r


Here is a link to a new series on Green.TV on extreme weather. Let me know what you think.

And since people mentioned it ... Shearer and Rood on the media and extreme weather.

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OUCH, not.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New blog - Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting theshepherd:


But, your marketing skills are obviously a bit lacking.

I can make it work.

Surely you wouldn't let your ego stand in the way of saving the planet would you?

The whole world may be reading this.

What say ye?



"Surely you wouldn't let your ego stand in the way of saving the planet would you?"

LOL! You are asking someone else this question? LOL!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting theshepherd:


Don't you think it a bit environmentally unfriendly that Canadians import their granite for kurling stones all the way from Scotland versus finding granite a bit closer to home? Is it really necessary that they have a Quartz free stone?

I think you should expand your rookie horizons and give us "all" the answers.



Where do you think they will get their stones when oil becomes too cost prohibitive for such luxuries as having stones shipped 1,000s of miles to them?

"give us "all" the answers."

Even if I had some of the answers, would you listen?

What is it that you shepherd?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Negative. The planet is the biggest looser.


But, your marketing skills are obviously a bit lacking.

I can make it work.

Surely you wouldn't let your ego stand in the way of saving the planet would you?

The whole world may be reading this.

What say ye?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I never wonder how well you sleep. I feel certain that you are confident enough in yourself that you sleep worry free.

Are you being arrogant, or just bizarre?


Don't you think it a bit environmentally unfriendly that Canadians import their granite for kurling stones all the way from Scotland versus finding granite a bit closer to home? Is it really necessary that they have a Quartz free stone?

I think you should expand your rookie horizons and give us "all" the answers.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting theshepherd:


So, if you sell your patent to me for $2.00 you only loose $3.00.

Surely you see the advantage of minimizing your loses?



Negative. The planet is the biggest looser.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting theshepherd:


Thank you for your blessing.
I'll sleep better tonight.


I never wonder how well you sleep. I feel certain that you are confident enough in yourself that you sleep worry free.

Are you being arrogant, or just bizarre?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting cyclonebuster:


I made it work for $5.00 bucks!


So, if you sell your patent to me for $2.00 you only loose $3.00.

Surely you see the advantage of minimizing your loses?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I never speak of the monitor.

I said we will be dependent on her and others like her.

Growing your own garden is an excellent start. You will require less food to be shipped to you, as in your local grocery stores, this way.


Thank you for your blessing.
I'll sleep better tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting theshepherd:
240. Ossqss
Everything!

What came first?



I'm a Darwinian by nature.
Eggs don't lay chickens.


But Roosters do!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting theshepherd:


OK, so everyone but skyepony will be smelling like feces?

I guess my garden this past year was just a figment of my imagination?

Rookie...take my word for it...please don't try to speak "of the monitor".


I never speak of the monitor.

I said we will be dependent on her and others like her.

Growing your own garden is an excellent start. You will require less food to be shipped to you, as in your local grocery stores, this way.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting theshepherd:


OK...$2.00 US Currency...Final offer.

I can make it work.


I made it work for $5.00 bucks!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Definitely a Xanax shortage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
240. Ossqss
Everything!

What came first?



I'm a Darwinian by nature.
Eggs don't lay chickens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonebuster:


It's not that I want the money I want a better Planet!


OK...$2.00 US Currency...Final offer.

I can make it work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


"Are you telling me that no matter what I think, I am somehow going to be dependent on you for life?"

Me? No. I was thinking of the ones that are way ahead of everyone else already. The person that came to my mind is Skyepony. We should all be moving in the direction that she has taken already. I have a long ways to go to catch her in her efforts. ..... When the feces hits the fan, Skyepony will know how to turn it into fertilizer and grow crops organically. The rest of us will just be wearing it and smelling like feces. We will be dependent on her knowledge and others like her for a way to survive.

"Are you that bizarre? Are you that arrogant?"

Pick one. I will go with what you decide. ... I said ONE! You do not get to pick both! ;-) ... Is that bizarre or arrogant?

"Weather is weather and climate is propensity for weather...And your decadal predictions are "what"?"

My decadal predictions are that it is hot and is only going to get hotter. When they say, "If you cannot take the heat, get out of the kitchen!", you need to realize that there is no way out of this kitchen. We are going to take the heat.

"I must admit I am quite impressed with your intellectual growth and vast wealth of knowledge and understanding of world climates from what was less than a season ago a rudimentary grasp of the subject."

Thank you, theshepherd. I consider this to be a great compliment from you. You, however, give me far too much credit on the "knowledge" side of things. This blog has allowed my knowledge to increase, on both sides of the issue. I am not a scientist but, I understand how Science works. I honestly must say that the points made by "denialists" are less than honest in their claims. What I had to do is to look at what nature is telling me. I see glaciers that are growing and see record cold days and weeks. I see many more glaciers in decline, sea ice extent in decline and far more heat record days, months and years. I see weather extremes becoming more frequent and more violent. Certainly there have been more extreme weather events, in the past, but, they were fewer than we are seeing today. ... What I cannot learn from books, classrooms and blogs, nature will teach me.

"You are a remarkable rookie.

How do I take this? Since you did not put any emphasis on the word "remarkable", I will take it as a compliment. In such case, thank you. ... When a rookie cannot improve, they get cut from the other players.


OK, so everyone but skyepony will be smelling like feces?

I guess my garden this past year was just a figment of my imagination?

Rookie...take my word for it...please don't try to speak "of the monitor".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I would be willing to pay you royalties, cyclonebuster, if someone builds it and it works. I would consider it to be far cheaper than trying to work around a warming climate.


Cheaper by the 30's of trillions of dollars!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting iceagecoming:


Russia’s South Hit by Record Low Temperatures, Center Says
QBy Marina Sysoyeva - Nov 25, 2011 5:58 AM ET


Abnormally low temperatures continued to hit Russia’s south with temperatures of 4 degrees to 6 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) below the norm, the Federal Hydrometeorological Center said.

Today’s temperatures of minus 19.1 degrees Celsius in Volgograd in the Southern federal district, and minus 16 degrees Celsius in Vladikavkaz in the North-Caucasus federal district are the lowest for this date since 1993, the weather center said on its website. In Makhachkala, which is in the North-Caucasus district, the minus 13.6 degrees Celsius temperature is the coldest registered since 1889, it said.

In the Black-Earth Tambov region in central Russia, the temperature hit a 1998 record and was minus 19.2 degrees Celsius, the statement said.

Winter crops are “not in a very good shape” in southern Russia because of the weather conditions, Alexander Korbut, the Grain Union’s vice president, said yesterday.

The center did not comment on how the weather might affect winter crops.


Link



Regional must = Northern Hemisphere!


Northern Hemisphere much > Russia's South!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


What does a defrosting Siberian tundra have to do with sea ice extent? Wind blown, or otherwise?

Great request. Thank you for the song!


Everything!

What came first?

BTW, the song was requested by others :)

I would tell you I am amazed at what I see in the climategate 2 leaked email releases. Words are never dissolved by rhetoric. How disappointing to say the least. Unfortunately, much more follows ......

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting iceagecoming:


Russia’s South Hit by Record Low Temperatures, Center Says
QBy Marina Sysoyeva - Nov 25, 2011 5:58 AM ET


Abnormally low temperatures continued to hit Russia’s south with temperatures of 4 degrees to 6 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) below the norm, the Federal Hydrometeorological Center said.

Today’s temperatures of minus 19.1 degrees Celsius in Volgograd in the Southern federal district, and minus 16 degrees Celsius in Vladikavkaz in the North-Caucasus federal district are the lowest for this date since 1993, the weather center said on its website. In Makhachkala, which is in the North-Caucasus district, the minus 13.6 degrees Celsius temperature is the coldest registered since 1889, it said.

In the Black-Earth Tambov region in central Russia, the temperature hit a 1998 record and was minus 19.2 degrees Celsius, the statement said.

Winter crops are “not in a very good shape” in southern Russia because of the weather conditions, Alexander Korbut, the Grain Union’s vice president, said yesterday.

The center did not comment on how the weather might affect winter crops.


Link



Regional must = Northern Hemisphere!


History tells you to not invade Russia during the winter months. Some have met their Waterloo this way.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting cyclonebuster:


It's not that I want the money I want a better Planet!


I would be willing to pay you royalties, cyclonebuster, if someone builds it and it works. I would consider it to be far cheaper than trying to work around a warming climate.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737


Russia’s South Hit by Record Low Temperatures, Center Says
QBy Marina Sysoyeva - Nov 25, 2011 5:58 AM ET


Abnormally low temperatures continued to hit Russia’s south with temperatures of 4 degrees to 6 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) below the norm, the Federal Hydrometeorological Center said.

Today’s temperatures of minus 19.1 degrees Celsius in Volgograd in the Southern federal district, and minus 16 degrees Celsius in Vladikavkaz in the North-Caucasus federal district are the lowest for this date since 1993, the weather center said on its website. In Makhachkala, which is in the North-Caucasus district, the minus 13.6 degrees Celsius temperature is the coldest registered since 1889, it said.

In the Black-Earth Tambov region in central Russia, the temperature hit a 1998 record and was minus 19.2 degrees Celsius, the statement said.

Winter crops are “not in a very good shape” in southern Russia because of the weather conditions, Alexander Korbut, the Grain Union’s vice president, said yesterday.

The center did not comment on how the weather might affect winter crops.


Link



Regional must = Northern Hemisphere!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting theshepherd:


I'll give you $5.00 US Currency for your tunnel patent.

Let us know when you have a better offer.


It's not that I want the money I want a better Planet!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting theshepherd:


"Are you telling me that no matter what I think, I am somehow going to be dependent on you for life?"

Me? No. I was thinking of the ones that are way ahead of everyone else already. The person that came to my mind is Skyepony. We should all be moving in the direction that she has taken already. I have a long ways to go to catch her in her efforts. ..... When the feces hits the fan, Skyepony will know how to turn it into fertilizer and grow crops organically. The rest of us will just be wearing it and smelling like feces. We will be dependent on her knowledge and others like her for a way to survive.

"Are you that bizarre? Are you that arrogant?"

Pick one. I will go with what you decide. ... I said ONE! You do not get to pick both! ;-) ... Is that bizarre or arrogant?

"Weather is weather and climate is propensity for weather...And your decadal predictions are "what"?"

My decadal predictions are that it is hot and is only going to get hotter. When they say, "If you cannot take the heat, get out of the kitchen!", you need to realize that there is no way out of this kitchen. We are going to take the heat.

"I must admit I am quite impressed with your intellectual growth and vast wealth of knowledge and understanding of world climates from what was less than a season ago a rudimentary grasp of the subject."

Thank you, theshepherd. I consider this to be a great compliment from you. You, however, give me far too much credit on the "knowledge" side of things. This blog has allowed my knowledge to increase, on both sides of the issue. I am not a scientist but, I understand how Science works. I honestly must say that the points made by "denialists" are less than honest in their claims. What I had to do is to look at what nature is telling me. I see glaciers that are growing and see record cold days and weeks. I see many more glaciers in decline, sea ice extent in decline and far more heat record days, months and years. I see weather extremes becoming more frequent and more violent. Certainly there have been more extreme weather events, in the past, but, they were fewer than we are seeing today. ... What I cannot learn from books, classrooms and blogs, nature will teach me.

"You are a remarkable rookie.

How do I take this? Since you did not put any emphasis on the word "remarkable", I will take it as a compliment. In such case, thank you. ... When a rookie cannot improve, they get cut from the other players.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
There must be a shortage of Xanax.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Thanks greentortuloni. I did go out and build a working model and I have a Youtube of it working just as I perceived it would. You can see where I let the red food coloring in the bottom of the tunnel and you can see where it exits the top of the tunnel. Many Scientist at the Hurricane Center in Miami have told me the idea will work and will weaken a hurricane. I just took the idea a few steps forward so it can also regulate the climate so as to restore Arctic Ice to pre-industrial revolution extent. The issue here is I found a solution to the problem and the scientists are ignoring the solution. Why have a blog to find a solution to a problem and when you find the solution to the problem it is ignored? Would any smart scientists here like to chime in on my idea? I would be more than happy to converse with you over my idea?


I'll give you $5.00 US Currency for your tunnel patent.

Let us know when you have a better offer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:


You are right on. This reminded me of taking ice cubes out of a cooler. Interesting weather pattern we have witnessed over the last 10 years or so. Chain reactions are inevitable, no?

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1311/2011 /tcd-5-1311-2011.pdf

Plenty more where this came from if interested.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/cdeser/Docs/climdyn_t sukernik-framstrait.pdf

Oh, and by request :P


What does a defrosting Siberian tundra have to do with sea ice extent? Wind blown, or otherwise?

Great request. Thank you for the song!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



+1000

No matter what, we will need to plan for a changing climate. Correction. We will have to make plans for a changing climate. Those that do not do so will be feeding off the ones that do. Professor Rood's topic is based on better predicting where, when and how intense different regions will be affected. Let us hope they get the models right.


Now let me see if I read this correctly;
"We will have to make plans for a changing climate. Those that do not do so will be feeding off the ones that do."

Just exactly "what" are you feeding me?

Are you telling me that no matter what I think, I am somehow going to be dependent on you for life?

Are you that bizarre? Are you that arrogant?

And just as a review of stats; long range weather predictions are less accurate than a toss of a coin, and climate change models as a whole are running around 18% accurate.

Weather is weather and climate is propensity for weather...And your decadal predictions are "what"?

I must admit I am quite impressed with your intellectual growth and vast wealth of knowledge and understanding of world climates from what was less than a season ago a rudimentary grasp of the subject.

You are a remarkable rookie.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting greentortuloni:


If I had the money, I would fund you. I think you've done a brilliant job at proposing and defending your idea. But I have a long list of projects I am working on at the moment and I don't live near the ocean, unfortunatly.

I'm not sure what you are asking for really, funding? My suggestion is to try your idea on a scale that is feasible and make a video of it working. For example, try it on the scale of a kiddie pool with colored dies.

That may seem silly but a well done video of it working would go along way towards convincing investors that it would work. Then propose funding for a larger scale model rather than a full blown effort.

I would save your emotional energy for real investors rather than here. Even if your idea is brilliant, execution is an entirely different thing. The skills required for project exectution are complex and just as vital as a good idea, among them is stick-to-it-iveness and a skin thicker an elephant's. Worrying about responses on a website would probably just turn off investors and make them think you are not serious.


Thanks greentortuloni. I did go out and build a working model and I have a Youtube of it working just as I perceived it would. You can see where I let the red food coloring in the bottom of the tunnel and you can see where it exits the top of the tunnel. Many Scientist at the Hurricane Center in Miami have told me the idea will work and will weaken a hurricane. I just took the idea a few steps forward so it can also regulate the climate so as to restore Arctic Ice to pre-industrial revolution extent. The issue here is I found a solution to the problem and the scientists are ignoring the solution. Why have a blog to find a solution to a problem and when you find the solution to the problem it is ignored? Would any smart scientists here like to chime in on my idea? I would be more than happy to converse with you over my idea?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Winters along the Arctic circle do get cold. Very cold. There is a reason why there are no polar expeditions during the polar winter months. It's cold and dark.

The Siberian Tundra is seeing warmer summers.

Melting permafrost

Yes, I would much rather go to the Siberian tundra during the summer months. Just do not strike any matches. ;-)


You are right on. This reminded me of taking ice cubes out of a cooler. Interesting weather pattern we have witnessed over the last 10 years or so. Chain reactions are inevitable, no?

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1311/2011 /tcd-5-1311-2011.pdf

Plenty more where this came from if interested.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/cdeser/Docs/climdyn_t sukernik-framstrait.pdf

Oh, and by request :P
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
you know i really strongly feel that it's not only importnat to acknowledge our climate changing because of man (and woman) but also to plan and adapt to the effects of it as well. This to me is what is also important.



+1000

No matter what, we will need to plan for a changing climate. Correction. We will have to make plans for a changing climate. Those that do not do so will be feeding off the ones that do. Professor Rood's topic is based on better predicting where, when and how intense different regions will be affected. Let us hope they get the models right.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
I liked your article. One place trying to combine information is the Federal Geographic Data Committee. They have just launched a new Geospatial Website.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Your link did not work. Here is the corrected link: Our own big drought problem

Thank you for all of the information you provide, spbloom.


Thanks and thanks. Fixed in the original.
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Quoting overwash12:
Watched an episode on the Green channel called( Going Tribal)! This particular episode featured a nomadic tribe in Siberia. I guarantee if you spent a week with them in the tundra in winter,you would change you views on Global warming!


Winters along the Arctic circle do get cold. Very cold. There is a reason why there are no polar expeditions during the polar winter months. It's cold and dark.

The Siberian Tundra is seeing warmer summers.

Melting permafrost

Yes, I would much rather go to the Siberian tundra during the summer months. Just do not strike any matches. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Watched an episode on the Green channel called( Going Tribal)! This particular episode featured a nomadic tribe in Siberia. I guarantee if you spent a week with them in the tundra in winter,you would change you views on Global warming!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1457
Science fair project invalidated "hockey schtick." What's really egregious is that the climate hucksters knew that the hockey stick graph was a fraud:

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting greentortuloni:
Link

...sorry for the long post...

As the Arctic warms, greenhouse gases will be released from thawing permafrost faster and at significantly higher levels than previous estimates, according to survey results from 41 international scientists published in the Nov. 30 issue of the journal Nature.Permafrost thaw will release approximately the same amount of carbon as deforestation, say the authors, but the effect on climate will be 2.5 times bigger because emissions include methane, which has a greater effect on warming than carbon dioxide.

The survey, led by University of Florida researcher Edward Schuur and University of Alaska Fairbanks graduate student Benjamin Abbott, asked climate experts what percentage of the surface permafrost is likely to thaw, how much carbon will be released and how much of that carbon will be methane. The authors estimate that the amount of carbon released by 2100 will be 1.7 to 5.2 times larger than reported in recent modeling studies, which used a similar warming scenario.

"The larger estimate is due to the inclusion of processes missing from current models and new estimates of the amount of organic carbon stored deep in frozen soils," Abbott said. "There's more organic carbon in northern soils than there is in all living things combined; it's kind of mind boggling."

Northern soils hold around 1,700 billion gigatons of organic carbon, around four times more than all the carbon ever emitted by modern human activity and twice as much as is now in the atmosphere, according to the latest estimate. When permafrost thaws, organic material in the soil decomposes and releases gases such as methane and carbon dioxide.

"In most ecosystems organic matter is concentrated only in the top meter of soils, but when arctic soils freeze and thaw the carbon can work its way many meters down, said Abbott, who studies how carbon is released from collapsed landscapes called thermokarsts -- a process not accounted for in current models. Until recently that deep carbon was not included in soil inventories and it still is not accounted for in most climate models.

"We know about a lot of processes that will affect the fate of arctic carbon, but we don't yet know how to incorporate them into climate models," Abbott said. "We're hoping to identify some of those processes and help the models catch up."

Most large-scale models assume that permafrost warming depends on how much the air above the permafrost is warming. Missing from the models, say the authors, are processes such as the effects of abrupt thawing that can melt an ice wedge, result in collapsed ground and accelerate additional thawing.

"This survey is part of the scientific process, what we think is going to happen in the future, and how we come up with testable hypotheses for future research," Schurr said. "Our survey outlines the additional risk to society caused by thawing of the frozen North and the need to reduce fossil fuel use and deforestation."

By integrating data from previous models with expert predictions the authors hope to provide a frame of reference for scientists studying all aspects of climate change.

"Permafrost carbon release is not going to overshadow fossil fuel emissions as the main driver of climate change" said Schuur, "but it is an important amplifier of climate change."


If I was the video posting sort, a "Highway to Hell" video would be appropriate. Perhaps, Oss could oblige?
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Link

...sorry for the long post...

As the Arctic warms, greenhouse gases will be released from thawing permafrost faster and at significantly higher levels than previous estimates, according to survey results from 41 international scientists published in the Nov. 30 issue of the journal Nature.Permafrost thaw will release approximately the same amount of carbon as deforestation, say the authors, but the effect on climate will be 2.5 times bigger because emissions include methane, which has a greater effect on warming than carbon dioxide.

The survey, led by University of Florida researcher Edward Schuur and University of Alaska Fairbanks graduate student Benjamin Abbott, asked climate experts what percentage of the surface permafrost is likely to thaw, how much carbon will be released and how much of that carbon will be methane. The authors estimate that the amount of carbon released by 2100 will be 1.7 to 5.2 times larger than reported in recent modeling studies, which used a similar warming scenario.

"The larger estimate is due to the inclusion of processes missing from current models and new estimates of the amount of organic carbon stored deep in frozen soils," Abbott said. "There's more organic carbon in northern soils than there is in all living things combined; it's kind of mind boggling."

Northern soils hold around 1,700 billion gigatons of organic carbon, around four times more than all the carbon ever emitted by modern human activity and twice as much as is now in the atmosphere, according to the latest estimate. When permafrost thaws, organic material in the soil decomposes and releases gases such as methane and carbon dioxide.

"In most ecosystems organic matter is concentrated only in the top meter of soils, but when arctic soils freeze and thaw the carbon can work its way many meters down, said Abbott, who studies how carbon is released from collapsed landscapes called thermokarsts -- a process not accounted for in current models. Until recently that deep carbon was not included in soil inventories and it still is not accounted for in most climate models.

"We know about a lot of processes that will affect the fate of arctic carbon, but we don't yet know how to incorporate them into climate models," Abbott said. "We're hoping to identify some of those processes and help the models catch up."

Most large-scale models assume that permafrost warming depends on how much the air above the permafrost is warming. Missing from the models, say the authors, are processes such as the effects of abrupt thawing that can melt an ice wedge, result in collapsed ground and accelerate additional thawing.

"This survey is part of the scientific process, what we think is going to happen in the future, and how we come up with testable hypotheses for future research," Schurr said. "Our survey outlines the additional risk to society caused by thawing of the frozen North and the need to reduce fossil fuel use and deforestation."

By integrating data from previous models with expert predictions the authors hope to provide a frame of reference for scientists studying all aspects of climate change.

"Permafrost carbon release is not going to overshadow fossil fuel emissions as the main driver of climate change" said Schuur, "but it is an important amplifier of climate change."
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting cyclonebuster:


What's this blogs malfunction? You want a solution but when you get a solution you ignore it. How does that help the planet?


If I had the money, I would fund you. I think you've done a brilliant job at proposing and defending your idea. But I have a long list of projects I am working on at the moment and I don't live near the ocean, unfortunatly.

I'm not sure what you are asking for really, funding? My suggestion is to try your idea on a scale that is feasible and make a video of it working. For example, try it on the scale of a kiddie pool with colored dies.

That may seem silly but a well done video of it working would go along way towards convincing investors that it would work. Then propose funding for a larger scale model rather than a full blown effort.

I would save your emotional energy for real investors rather than here. Even if your idea is brilliant, execution is an entirely different thing. The skills required for project exectution are complex and just as vital as a good idea, among them is stick-to-it-iveness and a skin thicker an elephant's. Worrying about responses on a website would probably just turn off investors and make them think you are not serious.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


No one here has the funds to finance it.


What's this blogs malfunction? You want a solution but when you get a solution you ignore it. How does that help the planet?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting Ossqss:


So what do you think?

Last day of the month and the Global satellite temps have been falling fast. Will we be below normal 2 months ahead of last year?

We spent 1/4 of a year below global normal this year so far.

Should we ever see a monthly global average temp below a 30 year running global normal ever happen in a warming world regardless?

BTW, not GISS, so it is actually global and not an extrapolation or 1,200 km smoothing, or that mysterious homogenization thing we see all the time :)

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps. html




Well, 2011 will wind up only the tenth (or eleventh) warmest year on record--but it will already go down as the warmest La Nina year ever. IOW, given the "cooling" effects of La Nina, 2011 was yet another scorcher.

Uh-oh
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting Ossqss:


I would suggest checking your update status's for the applications necessary. Additionally, if you have not run a full scan with a reputable application, you should. There are a number of links placed on this site that are malicious, let alone the scripts that bombard your PC here. That's just the way it is. L8R >>>



I use protection. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Regardless of which browser I use, it crashes the browser anytime I try to display a graph.


I would suggest checking your update status's for the applications necessary. Additionally, if you have not run a full scan with a reputable application, you should. There are a number of links placed on this site that are malicious, let alone the scripts that bombard your PC here. That's just the way it is. L8R >>>

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting Ossqss:


So what do you think?

Last day of the month and the Global satellite temps have been falling fast. Will we be below normal 2 months ahead of last year?

We spent 1/4 of a year below global normal this year so far.

Should we ever see a monthly global average temp below a 30 year running global normal ever happen in a warming world regardless?

BTW, not GISS, so it is actually global and not an extrapolation or 1,200 km smoothing, or that mysterious homogenization thing we see all the time :)

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps. html





Regardless of which browser I use, it crashes the browser anytime I try to display a graph.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting cyclonebuster:
What's this blogs malfunction? You want a solution but when you get a solution you ignore it. How does that help the planet?


No one here has the funds to finance it.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737


So what do you think?

Last day of the month and the Global satellite temps have been falling fast. Will we be below normal 2 months ahead of last year?

We spent 1/4 of a year below global normal this year so far.

Should we ever see a monthly global average temp below a 30 year running global normal ever happen in a warming world regardless?

BTW, not GISS, so it is actually global and not an extrapolation or 1,200 km smoothing, or that mysterious homogenization thing we see all the time :)

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps. html



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting iceagecoming:
000
NOAK49 PAFG 181139
PNSAFG
AKZ222-182345-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...RECORD SETTING COLD AT FAIRBANKS...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
YESTERDAY (NOVEMBER 17TH) WAS A BONE CHILLING 30 BELOW. THIS
SMASHED THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 17TH
OF 19 BELOW...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1904. THIS WAS THE 2ND EARLIEST
OCCURRENCE ON RECORD OF A 30 BELOW HIGH AT FAIRBANKS SO EARLY IN
THE WINTER SEASON. THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE WAS BACK ON NOVEMBER
9TH 1989 WHEN THE HIGH WAS ALSO 30 BELOW.

THE LOW OF 41 BELOW ALSO SET A NEW RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE. THE
OLD RECORD OF 39 BELOW WAS SET IN 1969.

THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A 40 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT IN NOVEMBER WAS
BACK IN 1994...BUT IT OCCURRED MUCH LATER IN THE MONTH ON THE 30TH
WHEN THE LOW WAS 45 BELOW. THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A 40 BELOW THIS
EARLY IN THE MONTH WAS BACK IN 1989 WHEN THERE WAS A LOW OF 42
BELOW ON THE 10TH. THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER OF 54 BELOW WILL REMAIN SAFE. THIS RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED
BACK ON NOVEMBER 29TH 1909.

WE HAVE ALSO ALREADY BROKEN THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY
(NOVEMBER 18TH). THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 33 BELOW WAS SET BACK IN
1969. THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY
HAS BEEN 36 BELOW.

THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 19 BELOW...AND THAT
RECORD WILL ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY.


Link



Sitka sets monthly snowfall record
by The Associated Press
Nov 29, 2011 | 1096 views | 1 1 comments | 5 5 recommendations | email to a friend | print
SITKA, Alaska - You can officially call it snowy Sitka.

KCAW reports (http://bit.ly/usZPKB) the city's official snowfall for November went to 32 inches with weekend snowfall.

That beat the record of 30.7 inches of snow set in 1990.

The temperatures are supposed to warm up this week, prompting the National Weather Service to advise people to be aware of avalanche danger.

Read more: Fairbanks Daily News-Miner - Sitka sets monthly snowfall record

Link




Regional not global.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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