Climate Case Studies – The 2010 Russian Heat Wave: Risks (2)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 11:12 PM GMT on October 24, 2011

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Climate Case Studies – The 2010 Russian Heat Wave: Risks (2)

In the last article I wrote about the March 11, 2011 earthquake in Tohoku, Japan. There are two points I want to bring forward from that entry. The first is to reiterate that our world exists in many systems with fragile balance. The second is that all of these systems are connected. In the last entry I followed one thread of global consequences and risks, including climate risks, following from an earthquake that is localized on the coast of a single island in Japan.

In the past couple of years nature has provided us many examples of case studies to appreciate the risks associated with climate and weather. In this entry, I want to revisit the 2010 Russian heat wave. The heat wave was at its peak in early August 2010. The direct impact of this historic heat wave and drought was many thousands of deaths and massive fires.

Even as early as July 16, 2010 many millions of acres of crops in Russia had been destroyed. By August 16, 2010 the cost of the drought and heat was estimated at 15,000 lives and 15 billion dollars. By August 3, 2010 wheat prices had increased dramatically and were on their way to doubling. In August 2010 Russia imposed a ban on wheat exports.

There has been significant analysis of this series of events. In June 2011 Oxfam produced a report (author George Welton) that looked directly at the consequences of Russia’s grain export ban. Intuition is that the export ban would be to protect the grain supply and cost within Russia. In an absolute sense, this was not realized, and prices of both grain and bread increased in Russia. Because of disproportionate impact on the poor, the rate of poverty increased. Internationally, wheat prices were pushed up. Two of the countries that buy much grain from Russia are Egypt and Pakistan. Within Egypt there was great stress on government, and the government committed to subsidies to try to maintain the low cost of bread. In Pakistan the cost of bread increased on the order of 15%.

The conclusion of the Oxfam report is that the cost of wheat and the damage of the drought and the heat wave both in Russia and outside of Russia would have been less if there had been no ban on exports. At least as early as August 19, 2010 an article in the Financial Times was stating that the markets responded more strongly to historical market behavior than it responded to the reality of the grain supplies. In the Financial Times article it is maintained, for example, that Egypt started buying up wheat early in August, driving up prices, in anticipation of a Russian export ban – consistent with previous behavior. (From the point of view of wheat farmers in, say, Colorado in 2010, impact of the Russian drought and embargo … June Low to August High)

What strikes me is that in the short term, a large impact of weather extremes is on markets. This impact is not directly related to the actual amount of grain deficiency caused by the weather extreme. Rather it is related to humans trying to find advantage or avoid perceived risk in the market. People are anticipating changes in not only wheat supply, but also changes in behavior. They are betting. This stands in contrast to the idea that because a quantity such as wheat operates in a global market that wheat would be relatively immune to such climate extremes. That is deficiencies in one place would be offset by surpluses in other places with the cost minimized by market forces. Perhaps this is true in the longer term, but damage has already occurred to those who are vulnerable.

Let’s continue: The winter of 2010 and the spring of 2011 were characterized by very high food prices. An essay by Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo entitled, Global Warming and Arab Spring, draws a convincing line that the pressure on food prices was a contributor to the start of the revolutions of the Arab Spring – the tumultuous uprising against many Arab governments. (also here) To diffuse the arguments that are sure to follow – this was a contributor, along with many other factors that came together to fuel a movement. This is the idea of climate extremes as a threat multiplier.

When we talk about climate change and global warming, we often talk of it in the future. We talk about droughts and floods. But the consequence of droughts and floods include damage to crops and damage to cities. The impacts are local and direct, for some, but beyond the immediate, local impacts are the impacts through markets, budgets, and political systems. As these impacts tumble across the world, the results are unpredictable.

The reality of global warming is that events such as the Russian heat wave occur more frequently. The markets connect events globally. They connect parts of the world with agricultural excesses and deficiencies – but, if droughts and floods are more frequent and more extreme, then markets connect deficiencies with deficiencies. The impact of climate change is more disruption, more instability – a threat multiplier.

r





Figure 1: A woman sits surrounded by the remains of her home in the Russian village of Mokhovoye on July 31, 2010. (From Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty)


Some other interesting references.

Food Security and Russia’s 2010 Drought

Internal Political Ramifications of 2010 Drought and Heat Wave

Changes in Russian Views on Global Warming?

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Quoting JBastardi:


Scratching their heads in confusion, no doubt. The climate is cooling by every measurement except the improperly sited surface temp stations. If you had taken the time to read the quotes, it's obvious that the "scientists" realize that no warming has occurred for the last decade. The most they can do is make excuses for the "pause" in "global warming."


I did take the time to read the comments. I did not see anything that would take away from there being a consensus among the climatologists. There will never be 100% support for any scientific theory among 1000's in the same field of study. I consider that to be a good thing. That means they are still looking to disprove the theory. So far, they have not been able to do so. They have, however, offered some interesting theories of their own. None of them have stood up, under the test of time but, they are still looking. I do not consider their looking to be a bad thing. Quite honestly, I hope that the AGWT can be proven wrong. I have not seen the evidence of this, as of yet.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
Quoting theshepherd:
119. iceagecoming

Give it up ice...

The 2010 Russian heat wave was "climate".
Anything else is "weather".

Drought is a new construct now.

The dust bowl was weather.


Hi, theshepherd. I see you are still with us. I would like to see you join into the science side of the discussions. I have no problems with those that are skeptical of the science, if you wish to take that stance.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Trust me, J. The scientist know what is happening with the climate. They are probably scratching their heads and wondering why everyone does not see it. .... I know that I am scratching my head over it and I am not even a scientist!


Scratching their heads in confusion, no doubt. The climate is cooling by every measurement except the improperly sited surface temp stations. If you had taken the time to read the quotes, it's obvious that the "scientists" realize that no warming has occurred for the last decade. The most they can do is make excuses for the "pause" in "global warming."
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
This global warming is providing for the earliest snowfall in New York since the Civil War.

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
I preferred the IJIS page which gives the numerical ice extent. I prefer my data raw. Unfortunately IJIS stopped reporting ice extent on October 3rd.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630
Arctic sea ice rebounding. Multi-year ice remains very low. But ice formation during October has been faster than normal.

Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630
Snow in Northeast could cut power to millions
'This is just wrong,' says one local of wintry storm during what should be fall season

Below:

It's a recipe for mass power outages: up to 15 inches of snow forecast in parts




The storm could bring more than 6 inches of snow to parts of Maine beginning Saturday night. In Pennsylvania, 6 to 10 inches could fall at higher elevations, including the Laurel Highlands in the southwestern part of the state and the Pocono Mountains in the northeastern part. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh could see a coating.

"This is very, very unusual," said John LaCorte, a National Weather Service meteorologist. "It has all the look and feel of a classic midwinter Nor'easter. It's going to be very dangerous."

The last major widespread snowstorm in Pennsylvania this early was in 1972, LaCorte said.

The heaviest snowfall was forecast north and west of the I-95 highway corridor, where about six to 15 inches of heavy, wet snow could down tree limbs and power lines from Allentown, Pa., to Worcester, Mass., according to The Weather Channel.

Even New York City was taking precautions, readying salt spreaders and snow staff earlier in the season than in any of the previous 40 years, NBC New York reported.

Link




It's what warmista's call AGW, hot propaganda?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
119. iceagecoming

Give it up ice...

The 2010 Russian heat wave was "climate".
Anything else is "weather".

Drought is a new construct now.

The dust bowl was weather.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10093
OUCH! Talk about warming.


Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Trust me, J. The scientist know what is happening with the climate. They are probably scratching their heads and wondering why everyone does not see it. .... I know that I am scratching my head over it and I am not even a scientist!

Yeah, it's shortsighted--and maybe a bit arrogant--to assume that because oneself can't comprehend a particular phenomenon that no one else must be able to, either.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
Quoting PurpleDrank:
Its snowing in the afternoon in Boston on October 28th

Yeah, I see that. That's a full ten days later than the first snow there in 2009. Weird, huh? Goes to show you what having much more atmospheric moisture can do...

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
Its snowing in the afternoon in Boston on October 28th
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 730
Quoting JBastardi:
How can a "consensus" exist when climatologists have no idea what is occurring with the climate?

Link


Trust me, J. The scientist know what is happening with the climate. They are probably scratching their heads and wondering why everyone does not see it. .... I know that I am scratching my head over it and I am not even a scientist!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
How can a "consensus" exist when climatologists have no idea what is occurring with the climate?

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
What happened to the warming?

Link
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Tunnels can do this and much much more!

Global Warming Target to Stay Below 2 Degrees Requires More Action This Decade, Scientists Say

ScienceDaily (Oct. 27, 2011) — Climate scientists say the world's target to stay below a global warming of 2 degrees, made at the United Nations conference in Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancun 2010 will require decisive action this decade.A comprehensive review of 193 emission scenarios from scientific literature to date has been published in Nature Climate Change by University of Melbourne and international scientists.

This study found the target of 44 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (GtCO2eq) by 2020 is a feasible milestone and an economically optimal approach for countries to meet the internationally agreed 2 degree target.

Dr Malte Meinshausen from the University of Melbourne's School of Earth Sciences and a senior author on the study said the world is currently at 48 GtCO2eq and as this research suggests, to reverse the growing emission trend this decade is vital.

The study analysed feasible emissions scenarios, which included a mix of mitigation actions ranging from energy efficiency to carbon free technologies such as solar photovoltaic, wind and biomass.

"Our study revealed there are many emissions scenarios that are economically and technologically feasible pathways to a 2 degree target, but that for countries to get closer to this target they need to honour the higher end of their pledges," he said.

Using a risk-based climate model developed by Dr Meinshausen, an international team of scientists led by Joeri Rogelj from ETH Zurich, Switzerland, analyzed how global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 can be managed with a long-term 2 degree target.

By analysing the emissions scenarios in the climate model, researchers were able to generate a probabilistic projection of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and global temperature for the next hundred years.

And to determine in particular, which scenarios provided the best possible chance of reaching the global target of 2 degrees and moving to a zero carbon economy in the latter half of the century.

"As long as we keep emitting carbon dioxide, the climate will continue to warm. There is no way around a zero carbon economy sooner or later if we want to stay below 2 degrees," Dr Meinshausen said.

A previous United Nations Emissions Gap report in 2010 which summarised all comparable emissions pledges by industrialized and developing countries, found 2020 emissions would still rise well beyond 50 GtCO2eq.

By specifying the level of 44 GtCO2eq, today's study suggests that countries' current pledges made at Copenhagen and Cancun are insufficient to meet the economically optimal milestone by 2020 to reach the 2 degree target.

In terms of Australia, the Federal Government recently announced its emission trading system to reduce its emissions by 5% to 25% below 2000 levels. Targeting the 500 top polluters is the cornerstone to the policy to achieve its 5% target.

"Our study confirms that only by moving to the more ambitious end of the pledges, 25% in the case of Australia, the world would be getting closer to being on track to the 44 GtCO2eq, 2 degree milestone," he said.

"If the international community is serious about avoiding dangerous climate change, countries seem ill-advised by continuing to increase emissions, which they have done so in the last ten years, which ultimately will lead to disastrous consequences later on," he said.

"We can anticipate Australia will be one of the countries hardest hit by climate change due to recent years of droughts and floods. This is consistent with projections that we are going to expect more of these kinds of extreme conditions in the coming decades," he added.

"By our calculations, the world needs to do more this decade, as otherwise the 2 degree target to avert serious effects of climate change, is slipping out of reach," he said.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Good morning all,

the three-hour Terminal Countdown sequence has been initiated for today's launch of the Delta 2 rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Live coverage of the Delta 2 rocket launching the NPP climate and weather satellite from Spaceflight Now and NASA HD-TV.

NPP Launch Countdown clock

Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting iceagecoming:
South Africa is slammed with 1 in 50 years frigid temps.


Cold front bring snow to Joburg

So where in AGW theory does it say that there won't be cutoff lows and cold weather in South Africa?

And you do realize that that is a weather event, right?

Quoting iceagecoming:
SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 33
Coldest autumn for Australia since at least 1950.
Issued 1st June 2011

That's some mighty fine cherry-picking!
Australia was indeed cold last spring. However, Africa was on the whole warmer than normal. The same for South America. Antarctica was mixed bag --it looks like about equal parts were warmer and colder when one looks at the polar projection maps. So you picked the *one* populated place in the Southern Hemisphere that was colder than normal. That, friend, is cherry picking.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
China Takes a Loss to Get Ahead in the Business of Fresh Water

China investing in desalination of seawater. Taking much bigger losses than we are in the Solyndra mess. But China will probably profit in the end exporting desalination technology.

I wonder what the Chinese are doing with all the salt and pollutants in the wastewater.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630
356. iceagecoming 2:09 AM GMT on June 30, 2011 +11
Canberra's driest June in 25 years ends on a frosty note
Press Release, Wednesday June 29, 2011 - 12:34 EST

Canberra has just had its driest June in 25 years, whilst the past week has been the frostiest in five years, according to weatherzone.com.au.

The recent spell of frosty nights is an indication of how clear and dry it has been. Only nine millimetres of rain has been recorded, making it the driest month since January 2010 and driest June since 1986. The long-term average for June is 41mm.

There have been only four rain days, five fewer the the long-term norm. And nearly all of this month's rain fell in one day, eight millimetres of it on Tuesday the 21st.

"The lack of rain and the run of frosty nights are as a result of dry air and mostly clear skies," weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said.

"La Nina has come to an end, so we've had less cloud and moisture in the air to link up with cold fronts and bring decent rain. And during the last week we've had clear skies, dry air and light winds, an ideal combination for frost," Dutschke said.

Each of the last five nights have chilled below minus three degrees, the longest run of nights this cold since June 2006. This is even a colder run than during any of the last five Julys, and July is typically the frostiest month.

This recent string of frosty nights has taken the average overnight minimum for the month to 0.6 of a degree, the same as June last year and 0.4 below the long-term average.

The last time there was a colder June, in terms of nighttime temperatures, was in 2006, when minimum temperatures averaged -0.2. The June record was -2.9 degrees, set in 1965.

Days, in contrast to nights, have been significantly warmer than normal. Maximum temperatures averaged about 13.5 degrees, making it the warmest June in three years. This is more than a degree warmer than the long-term average of 12.2.

In 2008, June's average maximum was 14.5. The June record is 15.7 degrees, set in 1957.

"One of the main reasons for this June being being so mild and dry during the day is the extra sunshine, about half an hour extra per day compared to the long-term norm. There has been five and three quarter hours of it per day," Dutschke said.

"Looking ahead to the rest of winter, Canberra should gain close to its long-term average rainfall. We are likely to continue to get regular cold fronts, which are typically our main source of winter rain. Regarding temperatures, it is also looking pretty normal for both days and nights. We will get our usual cold periods because of the fronts passing through, but overall it should turn out near-average."

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011


http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/canberras-drie st-june-in-25-years-ends-on-a-frosty-note/17886





Cold southern hemisphere winter starts early
Submitted by admin on May 10, 2011 – 9:24 amOne



Well it was minus 8.1 in Goulburn last night (according to the BOM), Australia’s first inland city about 2 hrs south west of Sydney. When the mean min. temp for Goulburn is 4.7, this is almost 13 degrees below average. At -8.1 this is the coldest on record in Goulburn’s history – with the cold normally being experienced in July in the middle of winter and not in Autumn. And it looks like for the week ahead it is only going to get colder.



SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 33
Coldest autumn for Australia since at least 1950.
Issued 1st June 2011


Australia has experienced its coldest autumn since at least 19501,2 for mean temperatures (average
of maximum and minimum temperatures across the nation) with an Australian average of 20.9ºC.
This was 1.15ºC below the historical average3, and 0.2ºC below the previous coolest autumn in
1960. It was also the coldest autumn since at least 1950 for Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Large parts of the country recorded temperatures more than 2ºC below the autumn average (figure
1) with about half the country ranking in the coldest 10% of years (figure 2). The season was
marked by consistent below-normal temperatures in most areas, with only a few individual areas
recording their coldest autumn on record. These areas were in northern and central Australia
including the east Kimberley, the central Northern Territory and small parts of northern
Queensland.



Link



Where oh where are the good Dr's when you need them.
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South Africa is slammed with 1 in 50 years frigid temps.


Cold front bring snow to Joburg

Light snow fell over Johannesburg on Monday afternoon during as another cold front baffled people across the country.

15 August 2011 | Sapa
Not rated yet.

JOHANNESBURG - Light snow fell over Johannesburg on Monday afternoon during as another cold front baffled people across the country.

The snowfall excited local residents as they updated their status on Facebook and Twitter.

"Incredible weather in Joburg, snow, rain, sleet, hail... keep the pictures coming where you are," Radio 702's Aki Anastasiou tweeted.

A Facebook status read: "It is snowing here in Ormonde! Our whole office is playing outside."

South African Weather Services forecaster Jan Vermeulen said that he had not received any reports about the snow as yet.

He said the icy conditions over most parts of South Africa were caused by cut-off low over the Northern Cape.

Snowfall was also expected in the western high ground of KwaZulu-Natal, the southern escarpment of Mpumalanga and in the north-eastern part of the Free State.

"The snow falls could vary from about four to five centimetres," he said.

About 10cm of snow and 25mm of rain was expected in Volksrust, Mpumalanga.

"We don't expect snowfall tomorrow [Tuesday], it should be cleared by then," he said.

The N3 highway, and all alternate routes at Van Reenen's Pass between the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal were re-opened after snowfall had caused the roads to close early on Monday.

"We have re-opened, but the roads are still wet," N3 Toll Concession company spokeswoman Andy Visser said.

"We are asking all motorists to drive slowly and keep a safe following distance."

Icy rain began falling in the area, during the early hours of the morning and had later turned to snow.

Visser said snow continued to fall at midday, with breaks of icy rain.

Emergency services, police, military and car towing services helped to move all the cars and trucks that were stuck at the path.


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Some here must be new or re-badged. this might help
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Quoting iceagecoming:


Keep bending the hockey stick, you'll be fine.








Here is another fine piece right up your alley.




How Did Humans First Alter Global Climate?

A bold new hypothesis suggests that our ancestors' farming practices kicked off global warming thousands of years before we started burning coal and driving cars

By William F. Ruddiman | February 21, 2005

Ah, so you answer evidence with...whatever that was. That might make you feel better, but it's of no value scientifically.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Mann's hockey stick has held up under every scientific peer-reviewed paper.

The only ones pushing hockey-stick denial are some washed out consultants paid off by mining and energy companies and a few sheeple that don't know any better.

The hockey stick deniers are no different than the Biblical Astronomers who still say the sun revolves around the earth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've read about that in Scientific American. How methane emissions from wet-paddy rice agriculture may have been significant enough to warm the Earth significantly.

And it makes sense to me.



Quoting iceagecoming:


Keep bending the hockey stick, you'll be fine.








Here is another fine piece right up your alley.




How Did Humans First Alter Global Climate?

A bold new hypothesis suggests that our ancestors' farming practices kicked off global warming thousands of years before we started burning coal and driving cars

By William F. Ruddiman | February 21, 2005
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

Your first problem is it's "Global Warming", not "Hartford Warming" or even "US Warming."

Your second problem is that weather isn't climate.

If when the 30 year global temperature trend is down at any point, feel free to tell me all about it. Until then, you got nuttin'.


Keep bending the hockey stick, you'll be fine.








Here is another fine piece right up your alley.




How Did Humans First Alter Global Climate?

A bold new hypothesis suggests that our ancestors' farming practices kicked off global warming thousands of years before we started burning coal and driving cars

By William F. Ruddiman | February 21, 2005
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:
Agreed, no record cold in Hartford ,just record snow.
Just 6 months of record cold in southern hemisphere that no one here would mention. Oh well.

Evidence?

I ask because I'm look at this:



And this:



So wherever your "record cold" is, it must be isolated to a few spots, and therefore, neither global nor even hemispheric in scale.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:


CB,I have to say, go for it. If you can prove the theory on a scale model, then they all will listen.
Or pay you and make go away for awhile.


I already proved it works physically with a scale model I built and tested and I have professor Hugh Willoughby backing up my claim it will weaken a hurricane also! Is that good enough? Who would like to help me out with my idea? Also if you like ice Iceagecoming then this is the biggest ice machine you can imagine.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting iceagecoming:


Point is record cold and snow means not warm, get it?

Your first problem is it's "Global Warming", not "Hartford Warming" or even "US Warming."

Your second problem is that weather isn't climate.

If when the 30 year global temperature trend is down at any point, feel free to tell me all about it. Until then, you got nuttin'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Agreed, no record cold in Hartford ,just record snow.
Just 6 months of record cold in southern hemisphere that no one here would mention. Oh well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonebuster:
Gulfstream Kinetic Energy beats this!



Testing Geoengineering: Models Help Determine Type of Testing That Might Be Effective

ScienceDaily (Oct. 26, 2011) — Solar radiation management is a class of theoretical concepts for manipulating the climate in order to reduce the risks of global warming caused by greenhouse gasses. But its potential effectiveness and risks are uncertain, and it is unclear whether tests could help narrow these uncertainties. A team composed of Caltech's Doug MacMynowski, Carnegie's Ken Caldeira and Ho-Jeong Shin, and Harvard's David Keith used modeling to determine the type of testing that might be effective in the future.

Their work has been published online by Energy and Environmental Science.

Ideas for solar radiation management include increasing the amount of aerosols in the stratosphere, which could scatter incoming solar heat away from Earth's surface, or creating low-altitude marine clouds to reflect these same rays. Clearly the size of the scale and the intricacies of the many atmospheric and climate processes make testing these ideas difficult.

"While it is clearly premature to consider testing solar radiation management at a scale large enough to measure the climate response, it is not premature to understand what we can learn from such tests," said Doug MacMynowski of the California Institute of Technology, who led the research. "But we did not address other important questions such as the necessary testing technology and the social and political implications of such tests."

Using models the team was able to demonstrate that smaller-scale tests of solar radiation management could help inform decisions about larger scale deployments. Short-term tests would be particularly effective at understanding the effects of geoengineering on fast-acting climate dynamics. But testing would require several decades and, even then, would need to be extrapolated out to the centuries-long time scales relevant to studying climate change.

Some scientists have theorized that volcanic eruptions could stand in for tests, as they would cause same types of atmospheric changes as aerosols. But they wouldn't be as effective as a sustained test.

"No test can tell us everything we might want to know, but tests could tell us some things we would like to know," Caldeira said. "Tests could improve our understanding of likely consequences of intentional interference in the climate system and could also improve our knowledge about the climate's response to the interference caused by our carbon dioxide emissions."

He added: "We conducted a scientific investigation into what might be learned by testing these proposals. We are not advocating that such tests should actually be undertaken,"

Link


CB,I have to say, go for it. If you can prove the theory on a scale model, then they all will listen.
Or pay you and make go away for awhile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:


Point is record cold and snow means not warm, get it?


Hartford hasn't had record cold today.


Accepts admission of error by iceagecoming.
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Quoting Birthmark:
Sooo...your logic is "Hartford, CT received snow...therefore AGW is false? Really?



But I thought it was
"Al Gore has a big house,
therefore AGW is false!"

So far no denier has come up with better. That's for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:
Sooo...your logic is "Hartford, CT received snow...therefore AGW is false? Really?



Point is record cold and snow means not warm, get it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gulfstream Kinetic Energy beats this!



Testing Geoengineering: Models Help Determine Type of Testing That Might Be Effective

ScienceDaily (Oct. 26, 2011) — Solar radiation management is a class of theoretical concepts for manipulating the climate in order to reduce the risks of global warming caused by greenhouse gasses. But its potential effectiveness and risks are uncertain, and it is unclear whether tests could help narrow these uncertainties. A team composed of Caltech's Doug MacMynowski, Carnegie's Ken Caldeira and Ho-Jeong Shin, and Harvard's David Keith used modeling to determine the type of testing that might be effective in the future.

Their work has been published online by Energy and Environmental Science.

Ideas for solar radiation management include increasing the amount of aerosols in the stratosphere, which could scatter incoming solar heat away from Earth's surface, or creating low-altitude marine clouds to reflect these same rays. Clearly the size of the scale and the intricacies of the many atmospheric and climate processes make testing these ideas difficult.

"While it is clearly premature to consider testing solar radiation management at a scale large enough to measure the climate response, it is not premature to understand what we can learn from such tests," said Doug MacMynowski of the California Institute of Technology, who led the research. "But we did not address other important questions such as the necessary testing technology and the social and political implications of such tests."

Using models the team was able to demonstrate that smaller-scale tests of solar radiation management could help inform decisions about larger scale deployments. Short-term tests would be particularly effective at understanding the effects of geoengineering on fast-acting climate dynamics. But testing would require several decades and, even then, would need to be extrapolated out to the centuries-long time scales relevant to studying climate change.

Some scientists have theorized that volcanic eruptions could stand in for tests, as they would cause same types of atmospheric changes as aerosols. But they wouldn't be as effective as a sustained test.

"No test can tell us everything we might want to know, but tests could tell us some things we would like to know," Caldeira said. "Tests could improve our understanding of likely consequences of intentional interference in the climate system and could also improve our knowledge about the climate's response to the interference caused by our carbon dioxide emissions."

He added: "We conducted a scientific investigation into what might be learned by testing these proposals. We are not advocating that such tests should actually be undertaken,"

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Link


Since 1870, there have been 12 years where it snowed more than .1 inches in Concord NH in October.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sooo...your logic is "Hartford, CT received snow...therefore AGW is false? Really?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
46. Birthmark 5:18 PM GMT on October 26, 2011 +5
Quoting iceagecoming:
You only hear the extreme cold from a very few sources.
It is taboo in climate circles to espouse such treason.


Evidence?

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NH/011.html#REC




Record ReportStatement as of 05:43 PM EDT on October 27, 2011
... Record daily maximum snowfall set at Hartford CT...

a record snowfall of trace inch(es) was set at Hartford CT today.
This ties the old record of trace set in 1962. Due to ongoing wintry
precipitation... it is expected that Hartford may see more snow
accumulation. Check back after the early morning climate for the
total snowfall for today.

Yea, usually don't see much solid precip till Dec.
must be AGW of course!%@#?


Empirical always bits you on the backside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone know what GE's (U.S. Largest Industrial Entity) 3rd quarter profits were?

A lot of Green
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 730
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL. Well, at least you are consistent. I will give you that. You do know, however, that all you are doing is complaining on the internet about all of the complaining on the internet. ... Someone needs to complain on the internet about that. That should fix it. ;-)


:)

You're on to me..

haha
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 730
Quoting PurpleDrank:
I'm shocked the answer to stopping the lies of Big Oil is the truths told by Big Govt.



Nope. The truth to stopping all of the lies, by big oil, is to understand the science that they publicly denounce but, also, use this very science to make investments for the conditions of a warming climate.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
Quoting PurpleDrank:


you know what causes industrial profits to soar?

complaining on the internet.


LOL. Well, at least you are consistent. I will give you that. You do know, however, that all you are doing is complaining on the internet about all of the complaining on the internet. ... Someone needs to complain on the internet about that. That should fix it. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
I'm shocked the answer to stopping the lies of Big Oil is the truths told by Big Govt.

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 730
Quoting Neapolitan:

The European debt situation had nothing to to with ExxonMobil's obscene profits; that's due to crude prices soaring. Now, think about that for a minute: more than $10,000,000,000 profit for the third consecutive quarter. That's $4.58 million in profit every hour. $76,312 profit every minute. $1,271.87 profit every second of every day. And that's just for that one single company.

Yet some would try to convince us that Big Oil has absolutely no reason to lie about how their product is altering the environment.

Right.

No, I think a bunch of militaristic, jack-booted LEOs using explosive ordnance and tear gas to cave in the skulls of legally-gathering, unemployed, unarmed, and peaceful military veterans will make it all better.


you know what causes industrial profits to soar?

complaining on the internet.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 730
Quoting PurpleDrank:
The fair news of the European debt situation has caused Exxon-Mobil profits to soar 41%.

The European debt situation had nothing to to with ExxonMobil's obscene profits; that's due to crude prices soaring. Now, think about that for a minute: more than $10,000,000,000 profit for the third consecutive quarter. That's $4.58 million in profit every hour. $76,312 profit every minute. $1,271.87 profit every second of every day. And that's just for that one single company.

Yet some would try to convince us that Big Oil has absolutely no reason to lie about how their product is altering the environment.

Right.
Quoting PurpleDrank:
oh well, a riot in Oakland will make it all better..


No, I think a bunch of militaristic, jack-booted LEOs using explosive ordnance and tear gas to cave in the skulls of legally-gathering, unemployed, unarmed, and peaceful military veterans will make it all better.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
Quoting PurpleDrank:
The fair news of the European debt situation has caused Exxon-Mobil profits to soar 41%.

I should have Occupied Oil Shares

oh well, a riot in Oakland will make it all better..



What do you do? Do you just sit back and watch the rest of the world go by? Or do you just complain on the internet? Fine. That is OK, for some people. I am not an activist but, I also do not just sit back and let others do the work that I can assist in.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
The fair news of the European debt situation has caused Exxon-Mobil profits to soar 41%.

I should have Occupied Oil Shares

oh well, a riot in Oakland will make it all better..

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 730
Quoting petewxwatcher:
If only deniers weren't users of PurpleDrank. Then they could start thinking clearly!

You use a handle promoting illegal drug use PurpleDrank.

WhatsUpWithThat?


If that's what you think my handle suggests to you, hey sorry. When I grew up, Purple Drank was just that cheap artificial grape juice at Winn Dixie. But, today we can use the internet and just simply search a name or phrase and whatever the top search item says is gospel.

What if I grasped your name to mean pete the watcher of women waxing their legs. Would you be promoting sexual fetish behavior with a handle like that?

Of course not. So let's be adults for once in cyber space.

As far as the recreational livation you mentioned goes;
Referenced in multi-platinum rap artists' music.
But that doesn't stop MTV, BET or the radio stations from broadcasting it to any and all audiences, young or old.
What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
I promote nothing except complaining on the internet about anything and everything.
Because complaining on the internet is easy and it solves problems.




Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 730
Quoting JBastardi:
Despite all the hype, the earth is cooling:

Nope. The temperature continues to rise. However, it doesn't rise every day or every year --it would be surprising and shocking if it did. But on scales relevant to climate the temperature continues to increase.

Anyone who tell you any different is playing games. Challenge them for the evidence and invariably they don't have any or they do produce "evidence" that isn't relevant or significant.

Your link is a good example.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Jon Stewart Rips Media For Ignoring 'Climategate' Debunking, Covering McRib Instead (VIDEO)

On Wednesday night's "Daily Show," Jon Stewart picked up on a story that rocked the science world in 2009: the email hacking that exposed hundreds of exchanges between global warming scientists known as Climategate.

If you remember, the emails weren't a big deal because they proved anything, but because they suggested irregularities in data which in turn encouraged climate change skeptics to continue to deny global warming. As Stewart reminisced with a series of clips, Fox News pundits and conservative analysts on all the 24-hour news networks had a field day proclaiming that these emails proved global warming was a fraud. And it worked, too. As Stewart pointed out, studies show the amount of people who acknowledge global warming dropped nearly 20% since the emails were leaked.

Given the media circus that was Climategate, Stewart was shocked to learn that a study done by a noted climate change skeptic AND funded by Tea Party oil tycoons the Koch brothers which intended to disprove global warming recently reaffirmed the science behind it. What shocked him even more? How little coverage the findings, printed in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, received compared to that of McDonald's "McRib."

Watch the full segment above (or click here to watch on "The Daily Show" website) and be sure to watch Senior Correspondent Aasif Mandvi's follow-up report below.


Yeah, I saw that. Funny stuff. I'm not surprised that Fox wouldn't cover the BEST project; in fact, I'd be floored if they had. But I'm disheartened that few real and credible news outlets have discussed it.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
Jon Stewart Rips Media For Ignoring 'Climategate' Debunking, Covering McRib Instead (VIDEO)

On Wednesday night's "Daily Show," Jon Stewart picked up on a story that rocked the science world in 2009: the email hacking that exposed hundreds of exchanges between global warming scientists known as Climategate.

If you remember, the emails weren't a big deal because they proved anything, but because they suggested irregularities in data which in turn encouraged climate change skeptics to continue to deny global warming. As Stewart reminisced with a series of clips, Fox News pundits and conservative analysts on all the 24-hour news networks had a field day proclaiming that these emails proved global warming was a fraud. And it worked, too. As Stewart pointed out, studies show the amount of people who acknowledge global warming dropped nearly 20% since the emails were leaked.

Given the media circus that was Climategate, Stewart was shocked to learn that a study done by a noted climate change skeptic AND funded by Tea Party oil tycoons the Koch brothers which intended to disprove global warming recently reaffirmed the science behind it. What shocked him even more? How little coverage the findings, printed in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, received compared to that of McDonald's "McRib."

Watch the full segment above (or click here to watch on "The Daily Show" website) and be sure to watch Senior Correspondent Aasif Mandvi's follow-up report below.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.