Drought, Fire, Flood: In the News

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 5:22 AM GMT on July 12, 2011

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Drought, Fire, Flood: In the News

I have been writing about a variety of issues that I know are of interest to only a small number of people – U.S. science organizations, climate model software, and validation of climate models. I am going to move away from that arcane set of subjects for a while and spend a little more time in the climate mainstream. In this entry I want to touch on several subjects – starting with my garden.

My garden is in the flat land that is the western edge of the Great Plains, just east of Boulder, Colorado. Weather wise, it is a complex and difficult environment: more than 5000 feet above sea level, reliant upon water from the winter snow pack in the mountains, huge swings of hot and cold. In terms of climate types, I have seen region defined as both arid and semiarid. In the last week, we have had three or more inches of rain – hard driving rain with much lightning. There is water standing between the rows in the garden. The week of July 4 it was so dry there was a fire ban, and many firework fires.

Last summer in Boulder we had the Fourmile Fire, which burned thousands of acres and dozens of houses. With this rain, we have mudslides, rock slides and flash floods (Longmont Times Call). It all makes you appreciate the importance of the weather and the climate. Wet and dry. Hot and cold. ( 485 Billion Dollar Impact of Weather)

Boulder is a microcosm of what is going on in the U.S. There have been overwhelming fires in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. (Texas Fires). Dangerous drought and heat is spreading all across the southern half of the U.S. The dust storm last week in Arizona was reminiscent of pictures of the Dust Bowl. (more here). We were overwhelmed not long ago by the Mississippi River flooding. I have almost forgotten about the Missouri River flooding.



Figure 1: From KFAB Omaha News Radio. Photo Credit AP: Missouri River flood of Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant.

We see here the persistence of weather, climate, snow cover, drought, floods - one extreme after another. Jeff Master’s wrote an excellent summary of 2010-2011 as being a year of the most extreme events since 1816 – the year of Mount Tambora, a definitive and understood climate anomaly. Jeff writes that June 2011 continues the run. July 2011 is looking strong. It has been more than 300 months since there was a “below average” mean temperature. That’s a little compelling.

We are being handed one case study after another, where we see the impact that weather and climate have on us. And what is that impact? We see vulnerable people losing their homes, their crops. But where is the real threat? What does it mean that 213 counties in Texas are primary disaster areas?

Energy, economy, population – markets. We all know that the weather affects our economy. We rely on a stable climate. We see here and now an interconnected world, where extreme heat kills thousands and destroys crops and send food prices soaring. We see multiple billion dollar liens placed on our economy by floods, droughts, and tornadoes. These costs come at a time when economies all around the world are weak. There is a debt crisis, and the weather is demanding more loans. Right here and now the world is providing one climate disaster after another. The weather and climate are showing the need for more planning, for building resilience and recovery strategies. The weather and climate are revealing our vulnerabilities. While there is the obvious, the family fleeing the flood, the destroyed Joplin, Missouri hospital, there is also the accumulated impact felt through markets, higher food prices, emergency relief, things that will not be fixed, people relocating.

We are being offered lessons. I have written this far and not strung together the words “climate change” or mentioned “global warming.” This is the weather in our warming climate. The take away message from climate models, Be Prepared.

r

Rood on To the Point

Open Climate Modeling:

Greening of the Desert

Stickiness and Climate Models

Open Source Communities, What are the Problems?

A Culture of Checking


Organizing U.S. Climate Modeling:

Something New in the Past Decade?

The Scientific Organization

A Science-Organized Community

Validation and the Scientific Organization

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Quoting RustyShackleford:
He loves to throw around 40 million like it is nothing when the number that is more honest would be .039%

He is afraid to talk about that.

Doesn't surprise me.

The planet is warming because we are coming out of an Ice Age nea....

sigh

Not 40 million, Rusty. 40 trillion. With a "tr". (Or if your numbering system can only go out to six places, 40 million million.) And if you can show me where that number is "less honest", I'd certainly appreciate it.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
Quoting Neapolitan:

What we know (and by "we" I mean "intellectually honest people"):

1) The earth's temperature is rising rapidly.

2) Increasing concentrations of CO2 are the primary driver of that warming.

3) We are pumping approximately 40 trillion liters of CO2 into the environment each day from the burning of fossil fuels alone.

Here is some helpful artwork I made just for my friends at WU:

Click for larger image:
Connect the dots


;-)


It's amusing, but it shows the brainwashing that is going on in our schools.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RustyShackleford:


Yes!

It shows just how little we know.

But yet the all knowing ones know everything already!

What we know (and by "we" I mean "intellectually honest people"):

1) The earth's temperature is rising rapidly.

2) Increasing concentrations of CO2 are the primary driver of that warming.

3) We are pumping approximately 40 trillion liters of CO2 into the environment each day from the burning of fossil fuels alone.

Here is some helpful artwork I made just for my friends at WU:

Click for larger image:
Connect the dots


;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
Germany is now using millions of Euros confiscated through the "carbon tax" to fund development of new coal-fired power plants. I kid you not. Somewhat along the lines of the states extorting billions from the tobacco companies and investing the money in investment portfolios that contained .... tobacco companies.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 2nd link should be this...

http://www.gewex.org/images/G.Stephens_Feb2010GNe ws.pdf

And here's the quote supporting the statement I made earlier...

Quote:

The implication of this optical depth bias that owes its source to biases in both the LWP and particle sizes is that the solar radiation reflected by low clouds is significantly enhanced in models compared to real clouds. This reflected sunlight bias has significant implications for the cloud-climate feedback problem. The consequence is that this bias artificially suppresses the low cloud optical depth feedback in models by almost a factor of four and thus its potential role as a negative feedback.

The graphic comes from Dr. Lindzen and Dr. Choi's 2009 paper, which I have linked in my earlier post.

I'm on a computer where I can't edit my posts for some reason....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RustyShackleford:
I want to know how .039% of carbon dioxide is enough to warm the atmosphere as quickly as you would like believe.

Especially coming off of an Ice Age.

Warming planet is what it is supposed to be doing.


CO2 can't possibly be driving the climate. Not only is it such a minor player in the Earth's atmosphere, but the evidence does not support the radical conclusion that CAGW Advocates conclude.

The ERBE data has shown time and time again, that every single Climate Model predicted a decrease in OLR at the TOA as temperatures increased due to GHG warming. However, the ERBE data shows that as temperature increases, so does OLR. The only way that this could create warming, is if the ISR was also increasing. A decrease in Cloud Cover through decreasing GCRs is the only explaination to the late-20th Century Global Warming, as it is the only explaination that has both an increase in ISR and an increase in OLR. This adds an additional 17 w/m^2 to Earth's Energy Budget, if all clouds were to be removed.

This decrease in GCC is quite substantial, and a 21 year decrease in Cloud Cover equates to roughly 3X the effect that GHGs have over a 104 year period. (LINK)

Climate Models have also underestimated the negative feedback of Clouds by a factor of 4. (L INK)

This could be a reason as to why the models got the OLR Vs. Temperature Component completely off, as seen by Lindzen and Choi. (LINK)(LINK)



Here, we can see, as I explained earlier, that climate Models forecasted a downward trend in OLR at the TOA due to increased GHGs trapping OLR. We can see that reality shows that OLR has increased with temperature, which is a definite sign that Cloud Cover has been driving Global Warming, since it is the only explaination that involves an increase in ISR, while at the same time providing an increase in OLR.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"The claim that CO2 dominates climate change in the multi-decadal time period has been clearly FALSIFIED."

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rusty- Check out the links on post 258 the links continue to show how much we actually know about Earth
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting Patrap:
JB says dat cooling is gonna start,,er,,next month.

again.

LoL

Well, if Joe "The Muscleman" Bastardi says the cooling is gonna start, I may run up to Tractor Supply this weekend and by some insulated coveralls. ;-)

Of course, JB said that Arctic Ice "is coming back" this summer, so I'm not sure how much credibility he has left.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
301. nymore
7:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Neapolitan- You are right there articles have two different headlines but the results are the same. Also in post 248 you inferred that I am ignorant for my post 243. In post 260 you give several points and infer that I am a simple person for not understanding although in post 264 I give facts to why you and the article are wrong and you issue no "my bad" comment why is it so hard to say I WAS WRONG. 1 more thing it's an oldie but a goodie YOU SIR JUST GOT PWNED ;-)
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
299. Patrap
7:04 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
JB says dat cooling is gonna start,,er,,next month.

again.

LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
298. Neapolitan
7:04 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Quoting bayouflower:
The ratio is thus.

A one degree increase in Global Avg Temp,,produces a 4% increase in WV,,

A moister atmo holds a greater potential for chaos.

Simple math, isn't it? Not sure why some can't see that (although it likely has to do with not wishing to).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
297. Neapolitan
7:03 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Quoting RustyShackleford:
Nea you won't respond to 278?

Didn't think so.

Classic

I will refer back to my "Charlie Sheen hashtags"

#winning

It would take an incredible ego to believe that one's every comment needs to be responded to immediately and in detail, particularly those that continue a weak circular argument with little basis in fact or reality--and especially when every issue raised in the comment is something that's been dealt with and debunked numerous times.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
296. sirmaelstrom
6:57 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
№ 249
Quoting Neapolitan:

Then you suppose wrong. SM posted something he'd seen on JB's site yesterday (and that the entire denialopshere was as usual predictably excited about) that purported to be a defense against assertions by some that the current drought is one of the worst ever. I pointed out the fact that the comparison used was deeply flawed on multiple points and therefore entirely invalid. SM's response was basically, "So what if they used bad data and an erroneous methodology to reach the wrong assumption? I still believe them!"

At that point, nothing further need be said.


Sigh...

Anyone who wants to know what I said should read the post itself; the one that he is referring to is № 213.

In placing the current drought in proper perspective, I suggest everyone look for themselves and form their own opinion. From the links below, I think 1934 and 1956 appear more extensive based on Historical Palmer Drought Indices available from the NCDC. Give each link a little time to load; they are animated GIF files.

Monthly Historical Palmer Drought Index Maps for the US for the years...

Jan-Dec 1934

Jan-Dec 1956

Jan-Jun 2011

While the drought in 2011 is certainly notable, it doesn't seem any worse that what can be expected from natural variation, considering what the US experienced in 1934 and 1956, in my opinion. Others, including Neapolitan, are free to form differing opinions.

Also note that my choice of 1934 and 1956 were simply based on spot checks of several years; I didn't really have the time to search through the entire historical record, but I think these two make my point adequately. I'd encourage anyone with the time to check some other years as well, for a more complete picture.

This is it for me this afternoon; I've got a busy day. I won't be back until at least late tonight, at the earliest.
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294. nymore
6:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Australia link in full Link since Neapolitan won't post it all I will
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293. bayouflower
6:45 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Me tinks you Birded dat un Nea.


Member Since: January 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
292. bayouflower
6:44 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
The ratio is thus.

A one degree increase in Global Avg Temp,,produces a 4% increase in WV,,

A moister atmo holds a greater potential for chaos.
Member Since: January 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
291. nymore
6:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Really several towns in northern minnesota have either tied or broken low temperatures the past couple of days Examples Grand Marias old record 48 F new record 39 F, Big fork broke theirs, Silver Bay broke, Ely tied, Crane Lake tied, Orr tied or broke, have not checked the temps for all just some quick examples. The town I live near missed by 1 degree. Do you know what this proves, nothing same as your highs.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
290. Neapolitan
6:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
The June, 2011, State of the Climate Report has been released. Let's see how The Great 20th Century Fantasy Cooldown is going:

NCDC June 2011 monthly state of the climate report %u2014 supplemental figures and information

--June 2011 was the 316th consecutive month with a positive global temperature anomaly. The last month to have a global temperature below its 20th century average was February 1985.

--The global land and ocean surface temperature (land and ocean) was the seventh warmest of the 132 Junes on record.

--June 2011 was the 20th consecutive June, and 121st consecutive month, with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last month with above average Arctic sea ice extent was May 2001.

Uh-oh

Article...

Sorry, guys. But don't lose hope; perhaps the cooldown will start next month. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
288. Patrap
6:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
..we like to be factual among the viewers
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
286. Neapolitan
6:25 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Quoting nymore:
Neapolitan- You said you would post temperatures if I provided a link. I provided that link in your mailbox 3 hours ago.

I asked you to provide a link to an article that stated "Massive cold blast expected next week." You WU-Mailed a link to a page headlined "Widespread cloud keeping temperatures down across Australia". Not quite the same thing, is it?

But, okay, here's the text of the relevant snippet:

"Western, central and southern areas of Australia have experienced some of their coldest daytime temperatures of the winter so far and in some cases years.

The large cloud mass that formed Sunday night over northwest WA ahead of an upper level cold pool of air has drawn moisture from the Indian Ocean and has now covered most of central Australia during the past 48 hours. The cloud area has migrated slowly east producing scattered areas of rain but more importantly cold daytime temperatures.

Portions of WA on Monday had a very cold day. Gascoyne Junction had its coldest day in 45 years of records on Sunday, only reaching 13 degrees. Jurien Bay had its coldest July day in 39 years, only reaching 13 degrees. Perth also reported two days in a row of 14 degrees or less, which hasn't occurred in 13 years.

In South Australia, Adelaide only reached 11.4 degrees on Tuesday, making it the coldest day since July 2008. In the Barossa, Nuriootpa failed to reach nine degrees, making it the coldest day in six years.

The cloud mass is continuing to drift slowly east today and will cover most of NSW and southern QLD until late Thursday, producing chilly, grey winter days."


FWIW, Summers, West Virginia, hit a high yesterday of 93, breaking a 59-year-old record for the date.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
285. iceagecoming
6:23 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, I agree. Please provide me a link to Australia's national weather service website with the headline "Massive Cold Blast Expected Next Week" and I'll be glad to post it.


Ask, and Ye shall receive.

Thousands stranded by worst snows in Bolivia for 20 years

By Robin Yapp, Sao Paulo

8:39AM BST 12 Jul 2011

President Evo Morales was reported to be considering declaring a state of emergency in the region of Potosi to mobilise the army and national guard.

Some 7,000 people belonging to farming families are in need of help in the region, according to officials.

More than 40,000 llamas and alpacas are also without food and farmers have lost their crops under a thick blanket of snow.

The snow has hit the remote highlands of Potosi, which lies in the south-west of the country and generally remains dry.

Bolivia's government has asked for help from neighbouring countries, including helicopters to drop aid for people in isolated regions and heavy machinery to clear roads.
Bolivia's central government has already "sent food, supplies and medicine" to the area, according to Cecilia Chacon, the defence minister.

On Sunday the authorities ordered the rescue of a family of Dutch tourists stranded near the border with Chile due to the heavy snowfall.

A cold snap that brought fog and snow to the capital La Paz at the start of this month killed at least 35 people.


NSW declares natural disaster zones

From: AAP
July 07, 2011 5:38PM



PARTS of New South Wales have been declared natural disaster zones following 48 hours of wild winds and blizzard conditions.

The NSW government said severe weather in the past 48 hours had battered the Central West, North West Metropolitan, Illawarra and South Coast areas.

Police Minister Michael Gallacher said the Blue Mountains, Oberon, Shoalhaven and the Wingecarribee Shire had been declared natural disaster zones.

"Severe winds have covered much of these regions and this has caused significant damage to these communities," Mr Gallacher said in a statement on Thursday.

"Today's natural disaster declarations trigger a range of assistance measures for those people who have been directly impacted."

The wind had damaged buildings, parks, reserves and critical infrastructure.

Link


No surprises here: Perth's on another record cold spell
Lucy Rickard
July 11, 2011



Perth is on track to breaking another weather record as low daytime temperatures continue this week.

Weatherzone meteorologist Robert Wood said widespread cloud cover was contributing to the "massive reduction" in day-time temperatures experienced across WA so far this month.

Perth is set to record its second day in a row where the mercury won't reach 14 degrees, which hasn't occurred for 13 years.

Despite the low maximums, Perth's overnight temperatures remained around 10 degrees for the past two nights, and today's highest temperature – 11.6 degrees at 12.30pm – is just 1.3 degrees higher than the overnight low recorded at 5.30am.

So far this month, Perth has had five consecutive days where the overnight temperatures dropped below five degrees, and on every day except one, the maximum had not exceeded 17 degrees.

Yesterday, the Gascoyne Junction recorded its coldest day in 45 years, with the temperature climbing to a chilly 13 degrees.

Jurien Bay also had its coldest July day in 39 years, reaching just 13 degrees yesterday.

Mr Wood said that in addition to a chilly Sunday, Gascoyne Junction also had some heavy rainfall over the weekend.

"The Gascoyne district was the focus of the heaviest falls in the 24 hours to 9am on Sunday," he said.

"Carnarvon picked up 3o millimetres through this period, while further inland, Milly Milly had 50mm."

Rainfall was not quite as heavy in the 24 hours to 9am today, although Morawa and Dalwallinu each recording more than 20 millimetres.

Mr Wood said cloudy and wet conditions had now taken hold of WA, bringing a burst of useful rainfall in addition to the record cold conditions.

"An upper level low formed to the west of Geraldton in the last 48 hours, drawing on abundant moisture from over the Indian Ocean, is leading to widespread cloud cover, rainfall and chilly day-time temperatures across WA," Mr Wood said.


Link


Snow Hits New Zealand during Major Winter Storm
By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Jul 13, 2011; 9:07 AM ET
Share |
Google Maps image of New Zealand.

Snow, rain, high winds, hail and even a tornado have struck New Zealand along with a severe early week winter storm.

On the South Island, a heavy fall of snow has disrupted traffic, causing accidents and at least one school closure in one town, according to the New Zealand Herald.

Queenstown was blanketed in snow on Tuesday, with pictures on the Herald's website suggesting snowfall of up to 10 inches in the area.

A skidding 10-ton truck nearly crashed through the front of the Queenstown District Court, the Herald reported.

A Queenstown police officer urged motorists to put on chains, owing to the hazardous state of area roadways.

Meanwhile, a small twister apparently tore a narrow swath through Kaiwaka in the early morning. The North Island town is located between Auckland and Whangarei.

On the bright side, the storm left more than a meter (or more than 3 feet) of snow on the ski fields of Mount Ruapehu, North Island. Operators were looking forward to clear weather later in the week, the Herald indicated.

Another wave of rain, snow and high winds will sweep through New Zealand into Wednesday, say forecasters at AccuWeather.com.

Heavy snow will sock the South Island highlands yet again, and inland sites such as Queenstown could get another 6 to 12 inches of snow.

Later in the week, the weather will tend to improve, although it will be significantly cold through at least Friday.


Night sky offers treats and challenges at the South PoleBy Grace Clark and Dana Hrubes, South Pole correspondents
Posted June 24, 2011 May is the month when “Polies” are settled into their work routine, which includes dealing with constant darkness.


We experienced a record in South Pole weather last month, with May 2011 being the coldest May since the Navy began keeping records in 1957. The average temperature was -62.6C/-80.7F. The previous record was from 1989.

Must be regional, really?

PS> I forgot the Nambia desert snowstorm (first in 20 years)
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 25 Comments: 1083
284. Ossqss
6:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
278.

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
282. Patrap
6:01 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
co2now.org

What the world needs to watch

Global warming is mainly the result of CO2 levels rising in the Earth's atmosphere. Both atmospheric CO2 and climate change are accelerating. Climate scientists say we have years, not decades, to stabilize CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

To help the world succeed, CO2Now.org makes it easy to see the most current CO2 level and what it means. So, use this site and keep an eye on CO2. Invite others to do the same. Then we can do more to send CO2 in the right direction.

393.69ppm







Atmospheric CO2 for June 2011

Preliminary data released July 5, 2011 (Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
281. nymore
5:41 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Rusty I agree
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
279. nymore
4:56 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Neapolitan- You said you would post temperatures if I provided a link. I provided that link in your mailbox 3 hours ago.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
277. robodave
4:21 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
I was reading about eugenics the other day. It was a supposed science that attempted to breed better humans, to weed away the inferior traits. But the reality is that we knew too little about genetics and environment at the time to even guess what was the optimal chemistry. Even now we know too little to start messing with our own genetics and imposing our prejudices on nature. We do have crude methods now to look at our own genes and to see correlations between things like diseases, sex, hair color, and so on, but my fear is that we will make the same mistake we've made before: will will run with it too soon. It's simple foolishness. Nature is quite complicated and we seem predisposed to a kind of confirmation bias, even in science. Consensus is just the excuse we use. The reality is we don't understand and can't right now, so the obvious course of action is to cherry pick, though not intentionally.

But more important than all this, it's strange how people used pseudo-science back then as an excuse to exert their racism on the population. As I examine anthropomorphic climate change in my mind, I have to wonder if the whole process isn't being repeated again.

So we got some tools to run climate simulations. Before you know it, we're running with it with a mad look in our eyes. Again, it's the same look in a young mans eyes that's just entering the world. Bold, but foolish. Beyond the naive intentions, I think there could be something sinister.

Similar to how people during the eugenics movement used it as an excuse to impose racist impulses on others, I think that the AGW movement could also be a tool to impose equally despicable prejudices on others. This is hte sinister element. It's human nature too.

For example, the extremist environmentalists would like nothing more than to send us back 50 to 100 years and to have us live among the animals again fending for ourselves in brutal fashion. For them, we're the enemies and the animals are the good guys. AGE is just a tool for them.

And what about the bankers and financial horses? They want money and AGW is just a convenient method, but not the only one. They're just as liable to be in the oil business as they're in the environmental business. They go where they trends go. Nonetheless, they use these things as excuses to fill their fat wallets. It's kind of hedonic and narcissist.

And then there're those who feel that all should remain as is, that nothing should be changed or misplaced. In effect, they want to impose their own anti-change philosophy onto the rest of humanity. If they could control everything, then we wouldn't even be alive today because our atmosphere wouldn't be breathable. It depends in which era you place them. If you placed them millions of years ago, dinosaurs might still roam the earth and there'd be no modern humans at all. Change is their enemy. They think climate should not change or change slowly. As if they knew what was good for all of earth?

And then there're the many scientists who feel that AGW is an immediate threat to humanity. What kind of thing is going on with them that might not look so good on their resume? They tell us they're only trying to find the truth and to share it for the betterment of all people. But on closer examination what you find is that many of the AGW scientists are in fact democrats or they lean in the liberal direction on the idealism meter. Might they be attempting to impose their political leanings on the rest of humanity without knowing it? Hard to say, but it seems to me they're taking their models and running with them. That's at least rash, at worst an example of them enforcing liberal inclinations on the activities of this world just as the eugenics followers were pushing their racism onto society.

Bottom line, there's a lot we don't know. So our only choice then is to pick from the countless things that which we can get easily enough. We try to conserve our energies. And this usually means picking what makes sense to us. And what is that? Well, it's whatever was in our minds at the time. And our minds are quite limited. So we go down this cosmic river picking things from the shore that reflect our experience and expectations. This even happens in science. A law is a law for a good reason. Consensus is reliable for a good reason. These're things that in our human experience have proven dependable. But never let a law or a consensus fool you. They're not infallible.

It's not what you know that defines you, it's how you impose your current knowledge on what you don't know that's most visible because there's so much we don't know!
Member Since: August 9, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 147
275. Neapolitan
2:37 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Quoting capelookout:
This is my regular handle, and my only handle. Right there, you are spouting falsehoods. I rest my case.

Not to get confrontation, but if you are going to proceed with making your pro-AGW case by posting warm temperatures, you may want to also post the cold temperatures as well so you don't give the others the impression here that you cherry pick data that suits your case.

Please, do not get emotional either with me and accuse me of things I did not do. And if you do, why don't you provide proof instead of your baseless accusation?

Look, no one is getting banned, and you sure have not posting anything that I saw here the past couple days that would warrant a ban. You should have nothing to worry about.

I'd be happy to post low temperature records, but just since June 1, record highs in the U.S. have outnumbered record lows by 9,645 to 1,947, so that's kinda the story. FWIW, during the four weeks this year that record lows have far outnumbered record highs, I have indeed made mention of that either here and/or on Dr. Masters' blog. (In case you're wondering, 21 of 2011's 28 weeks to date have featured more record highs than lows. That includes, of course, those frigid weeks in January and February...)

Back in the winter when there were many record lows--including Oklahoma's all-time state low--I was one of the most prolific writers about it. Weather and climate fascinate me. They always have, which is why I've spent so many years studying them both. And maybe that's why I haven't been able to help but notice the increasing warmth...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
273. nymore
2:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Neo- I was wondering if you agree with posts 264 and 266
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
272. nymore
2:16 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Neapolitan you have mail
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271. Neapolitan
2:06 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Quoting capelookout:

Funny you mention bias. When are the weather enthusiasts were putting up the record cold maps for the contiguous US and in Europe last winter back when I lurked before I signed up, that gentlemen Neapolitan was the first to debunk their data and dismiss it as hogwash. After the attempt, the outright proclamation that the globe is warming rapidly ensured. I tell you, I about spit my coffee all over the keyboard those couple bone chilling weeks.

Really? I'm going to have to call you on that falsehood, "capelookout". Please provide a single instance where you have ever seen me "debunk...data and dismiss it as hogwash" if those data came from an actual group of actual meteorologists and not, say, one of Bastardi's fantasy blog posts. I'll be patiently waiting.

(While you're at it, can you please just post under your regular handle? That is, one that wasn't banned?)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
268. Neapolitan
1:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Quoting nymore:
Neo if your gonna put up the usa map don't forget to post the austrailia map, you would not want to appear to be biased

Oh, I agree. Please provide me a link to Australia's national weather service website with the headline "Massive Cold Blast Expected Next Week" and I'll be glad to post it.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
267. nymore
1:49 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Neo if your gonna put up the usa map don't forget to post the austrailia map, you would not want to appear to be biased
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
266. nymore
1:47 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Neapolitan concerning post 262 I have never posted anything here from a denialist site even though you claimed I have before I gave the actual sources and proved you wrong. You may also want to look at the links post 258, we did not know any of these existed till this year but your right we have it all figured out
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
265. Neapolitan
1:39 PM GMT on July 14, 2011
Looks like more of that global cooling is about to kick in:
...Massive Heat Wave Expected Next Week...

Published: Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:47:09 EDT

The stage is being set for a massive heat wave to develop into next week as a large area of high pressure is anticipated to circulate hot and humid air over much of the central and eastern U.S. Maximum heat index values of at least 100.F are likely across much of this area by the middle of next week, with heat index values in excess of 110.F possible over portions of these areas. Details...

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh

Click for interactive map:
Uh-oh



National Weather Service Article...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.