Climate Projections and Predictions: Real-world use (1)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:07 AM GMT on October 21, 2010

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Climate Projections and Predictions: Real-world use (1)

Regular readers of this blog know that for the past few months, I have taken paths that explore how we respond to the information that we have about climate and climate change. There is, in those articles, my analysis of various issues such as the communication of climate change information, what societal response might mean to the practice of climate science, and strategies for going forward. These are my current interests, and in as much as I contribute to the community of climate science, these are the issues that I put my energy behind. In the past few months I have been involved in many (too many) meetings that have grown out of my climate change problem solving class and these blogs. These meetings have ranged from how cities and water resource managers are developing plans for adapting to climate change to a variety of inquiries on the development of communities to accelerate climate change problem solving. This seemingly growing interest and activity comes at a time when the issue of climate change, at least climate change policy, on national and international levels seems to be caught in political quagmires and wrapped up with issues of energy and economics in an increasingly confused and unproductive way. (It is already time for COP16 in Cancun, Mexico. That will be the subject of the next blog.)

One of the big activities going on right now is the development of climate services. There has recently been the collection of open public comments by the National Academy of Public Administration. NOAA has provided a climate service question and answer. One of the roles I play in this is working with the Climate Program Office to help develop a strategy for delivering climate information, including, climate projections for – for what – stakeholders. (I have written, now, several blogs that address climate services in one way or another and they can, hopefully, be found here.)

I hesitate to say stakeholders because at a recent meeting I saw a picture of a frying pan with a steak in it, and it was identified as a “stakeholder.” This is part of the dialogue. I often say we are providing climate information for applications, then list a set of applications like water resource managers and ski resort designers. Some people think of stakeholders as policy makers. Such discussion of who we might be delivering climate information to is part of problem. Climate and climate change affect everyone, and hence, the potential consumers of climate information form an immense audience.

If you think about that immense audience for a while, and how to organize to provide the needed information, then one way to approach the problem is to look at current users of climate and climate information and to extract some potential organizing principles. For example if you look just at U.S. cities you find that some cities are worried about heat waves and some about flooding. In either case, however, the specifics of the city matter, for example, how are paved areas and park lands distributed? What are the watersheds that feed the rivers? If you examine a city that has a lot of oil refineries close to the ocean, then you are worried about sea level rise and storm surges – this leads to concerns about wetlands and fine details of coastal elevation and land subsiding because of water being pumped out. My point is that when you span across all cities and then span across potential consumers of climate information from brokerage houses to ski resort designers to seed hybridizers that climate information requires tailoring not only to a specific field, but to many specific cases. That said, it is naïve to imagine providing a “climate prediction” in the same way as providing a weather prediction. (see previous blog entries Predictions and Projections and Time for New Community) This tailoring of information is not only the provision of some number for some place at some time, but also the provision of how to interpret and use that number. This sort of advice is currently being called translation, and in the spirit of a climate service, translation services.

Words are important. I have been beating to death the idea that climate change has become in the most public dialogues a political rather than scientific subject. Curiously, in political arguments words are often both important and meaningless because once the word takes hold the political arguments redefine the word in terms of political desires. So, I want to avoid the political argument, and I believe that a National Climate Service will help to de-politicize climate as an issue (see). We have already implied the importance of words in the discussion of “stakeholder” above – it is part of a search for a single word when perhaps a single word is not appropriate. I want to point out that I have carefully used the ideas of both climate and climate-change and talk most often about “climate information.”

I think that it is not controversial that if we could predict the climate with some accuracy, then that would be beneficial for society. The issue of climate change would then be answered by whether or not anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gases and aerosols had to be included to improve the quality of predictions. (That was part of the point of the Bumps and Wiggles series.) Within the past two decades we have developed definitive skill in performing seasonal and El Nino predictions. Not long ago, these types of forecasts were known as climate forecasts – and the use of this terminology and which part of which agency “owns” climate forecasting colors the discussion today. We have been able to show skill in these predictions, but it has been, perhaps, more difficult to figure out how to use these predictions. There is a lot of uncertainty and the need to understand not only probabilities but the ability of someone to use that information. For example whether to hedge one’s risk with changing choice of seeds is a different problem for the market-based farmer in Australia than the subsidence based farmer in Botswana (unabashedly Lemos and Rood (2010)).

There is no doubt that if we focus our resources on the problem, and better include representation of the ocean circulation in climate models, then we will develop skill at decadal prediction. And this climate prediction will be useful to those who know how to use them. It is, therefore, I assert, apolitical to develop predictive models, measure their skill, and perhaps even more challenging to perform the research on how to use these climate projections as they morph into climate predictions. The U.S. Navy thinks this is important enough they even have a Facebook page.

At a recent meeting in Washington of Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Centers I was delighted to see my thesis advisor in a very active retirement. As some had some fun with a couple of years ago my thesis advisor is Jim O’Brien who is often counted as climate change skeptic. I never speak for Jim (and try not to speak for others in general, but sometimes it’s hard – loved ones sometimes call me an academic), but most of what I hear from Jim are concerns about the attribution of specific events to man-made global warming. In fact, I think that Jim has publically stated that global warming is an important issue, important enough to get right. He is, like me and hundreds of others, actively involved in how to improve climate projections and how to better use climate observations and projections in applications. Therefore, I assert, that developing and using climate information is not only apolitical, but in the interest of economic and national security, as well as competitiveness. I also assert that is the worst intersection of science and politics for politicians to say, OK study climate prediction, but don’t study attribution of climate variability to greenhouse gases.

Words: stakeholders, climate information, climate knowledge, prediction, projection, attribution – words are ultimately important as they help to make more precise what we mean, what we are doing, and what we need to know. In the problems of how to use climate projections words are important to communicate across fields. City utility managers need to know what climate scientists are saying and climate scientists need to know what city utility managers are saying. Translation – that was a word used above. There is translation from one discipline, profession, and application to another.

Why is translation so important in climate services? Is translation less important in weather services? Is the use of weather data that intuitive? There are many places that provide, de facto, commercial translation of weather information. One might argue that is what Wunderground.com does. But you can look around and there are many companies that translate weather (and increasingly climate) data. One of my students went to work for Risk Management Solutions (RMS). The challenges of using climate projections are far more challenging than using weather forecasts. With weather forecasts we have a long history of evaluating their quality and their improvement. We have reasonably good models of uncertainty. We have very limited experience with such quantitative analysis with climate projections – that’s one reason we call them projections. We have a far broader range of uncertainties. And we have the immense diversity of potential consumer mentioned above. While to some, scientists included, the uncertainty and diversity render the problem of climate services untenable, I believe that to cast away the problem as impossible is irresponsible. As I stated above this an issue of economic and national security; it is an issue of environmental sustainability. The use of climate information is such a compelling problem that people are already addressing climate and climate-change issues with whatever information they find usable – whether or not it is the best information available. It is, therefore, an issue of responsibility to be able to use the best information available at any given time, rather than just the information that is most usable. This is an issue just as much, perhaps more, of learning how to use climate information and how to provide usable information. This integrates the user needs into the scientific research, which defines a branch of research which may be in the nature of fundamental research, but it is fundamental research in service to the solution of societal applications (an old take on this).

Enough for now ….

r

Pakistan: I am certain to maintain an interest in Pakistan far longer than the average disaster attention span. My youngest sister Elizabeth is Counsel General in Peshawar so I keep an eye on the news. Attention to the Pakistan flood is moral imperative, a humanitarian imperative, and a security imperative. (Pakistan Flooding: A Climate Disaster, Yours truly on Chicago-based Radio Islam, Rood interview)

Here are some places that my sister has recommended for the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. Organizations she sees.

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

U.S. State Department Recommended Charities

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Portlight Disaster Relief at Wunderground.com



Figure 1. Politics of Flood Management: Opinion from the Hindu


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242. EnergyMoron
10:22 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


I can't let that slide. Hitler got rid of Jews in the death chambers. 6 million at least.

Sick stuff posted here. Master's blog is fun. This blog is crazy.


I was referring to the 13 million Christians in the quoted material of cyclonebuster. Of course 7 million Jews were killed.

Most of the 13 million were killed in war, but then there are folks like Dietrich Bonhoffer

From the link

"Neither future consequences nor past motives by themselves are sufficient to determine the moral value of actions. Consequences have the awkward consequence of continuing indefinitely into the future. If left unattended, this feature would make all moral judgments temporary or probationary, since none are immune to radical revision in the future. What makes a consequence relevant to making an action right is something other than the fact that it is a consequence. The same is true for past motives. One motive or mental attitude surely lies behind another. What makes one mental state and not an earlier state the ultimate ethical phenomenon is something other than the fact that it is a mental state. Since neither motives nor consequences have a fixed stopping point, both are doomed to failure as moral criteria."

Avoiding the future consequence of AGW is not the basis for moral action.

Wasting energy is wrong.

Producing energy without pollution is virtuous.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
241. EnergyMoron
9:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2010

Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:
EnergyMoron, I wouldn't have a problem with that plan at all if the likes of Mr. Gates, Google CEO Eric Schmidt, James Cameron, Al Gore, David de Rothschild, Prince Philip and others would live a carbon-neutral lifestyle as well, instead of just talking about it, talk is cheap.

I would like to know the average carbon footprint of the "deniers" vs. many of the alarmists that post here, I wouldn't be surprised if the alarmists' footprints were greater on average than the "deniers".

You I can respect, EnergyMoron, as you clearly walk the walk as well as you talk it. For the others that like to preach to the rest of us about this like Jimmy Swaggart preaching that we must all remain faithful to our wives, let me ask you this.

Is it better in your view to be a believer in AGW
but personally have a large carbon footprint, or to be like these folks in Kansas in the article below, who are GW skeptics, but who have taken steps to reduce their own energy consumption?

In Kansas, Climate Skeptics Embrace Cleaner Energy

ALINA, Kan. Residents of this deeply conservative city do not put much stock in scientific predictions of climate change.
Beyond Fossil Fuels

Changing the Conversation

Clean-Energy Movement in the Heartland
Green
Steve Hebert for The New York Times

"Amazing. If you talk to people with respect and address issues in a way that matters to them you can get them to listen and change behavior ... Its politics 101. Try not to forget the basics."

David, Baltimore

Don't mention global warming, warned Nancy Jackson, chairwoman of the Climate and Energy Project, a small nonprofit group that aims to get people to rein in the fossil fuel emissions that contribute to climate change. And don't mention Al Gore. People out here just hate him.

Saving energy, though, is another matter.

Last Halloween, schoolchildren here searched for vampire electric loads, or appliances that sap energy even when they seem to be off. Energy-efficient LED lights twinkled on the town's Christmas tree. On Valentine's Day, local restaurants left their dining room lights off and served meals by candlelight.

Continued..


It is better to be a low carbon skeptic than a high carbon believer.

It is wrong to say that there are too many people.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
240. cyclonebuster
4:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Getting close to carbon free air travel.

Solar plane completes historic 24-hour flight
Aircraft could stay in the air indefinitely, charging batteries from sun's rays
PAYERNE, Switzerland — An experimental solar-powered plane landed safely Thursday after completing its first 24-hour test flight, proving that the aircraft can collect enough energy from the sun during the day to stay aloft all night.

Pilot Andre Borschberg eased the Solar Impulse onto the runway at Payerne airfield about 30 miles southwest of the Swiss capital Bern at exactly 9 a.m. (3 a.m. EDT) Thursday.

Helpers rushed to stabilize the pioneering plane as it touched down, ensuring that its massive 207-foot wingspan didn't scrape the ground and topple the craft.

The record feat completes seven years of planning and brings the Swiss-led project one step closer to its goal of circling the globe using only energy from the sun.

"We achieved more than we wanted. Everybody is extremely happy," Borschberg told reporters after landing.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
239. cyclonebuster
3:54 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:
EnergyMoron, I wouldn't have a problem with that at all if the likes of Mr. Gates, Google CEO Eric Schmidt, James Cameron, Al Gore, David de Rothschild, Prince Philip and others would live a carbon-neutral lifestyle as well, instead of just talking about it, talk is cheap.

I would like to know the average carbon footprint of the "deniers" vs. many of the alarmists that post here, I wouldn't be surprised if the alarmists' footprints were greater on average than the "deniers".

You I can respect, EnergyMoron, as you clearly walk the walk as well as you talk it. For the others that like to preach to the rest of us about this like Jimmy Swaggart preaching that we must all remain faithful to our wives, let me ask you this.

Is it better in your view to be a believer in AGW
and have a personally have a large carbon footprint, or to be like these folks in Kansas in the article below, who are GW skeptics, but who have taken steps to reduce their energy consumption?

In Kansas, Climate Skeptics Embrace Cleaner Energy

ALINA, Kan. — Residents of this deeply conservative city do not put much stock in scientific predictions of climate change.
Beyond Fossil Fuels

Changing the Conversation

Articles in this series examine innovative attempts to reduce the world’s dependence on coal, oil and other carbon-intensive fuels, and the challenges faced.
Previous Articles in the Series »
Multimedia
Slide Show
Building a Clean-Energy Movement in the Heartland
Green

A blog about energy and the environment.
Go to Blog
Enlarge This Image
Steve Hebert for The New York Times

Captain Powerstrip, right, a k a Jerry Higgins, a school principal in Mount Hope, Kan., in a skit last winter on conserving energy. More Photos »
Readers' Comments

"Amazing. If you talk to people with respect and address issues in a way that matters to them you can get them to listen and change behavior ... Its politics 101. Try not to forget the basics."

David, Baltimore

“Don’t mention global warming,” warned Nancy Jackson, chairwoman of the Climate and Energy Project, a small nonprofit group that aims to get people to rein in the fossil fuel emissions that contribute to climate change. “And don’t mention Al Gore. People out here just hate him.”

Saving energy, though, is another matter.

Last Halloween, schoolchildren here searched for “vampire” electric loads, or appliances that sap energy even when they seem to be off. Energy-efficient LED lights twinkled on the town’s Christmas tree. On Valentine’s Day, local restaurants left their dining room lights off and served meals by candlelight.

Continued..


Tunnels give you the choice not to have a carbon foot print!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
238. cyclonebuster
3:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Tunnels were for Anne Franke. Definitely. War is not good but is not murder.... although the death chambers were Hitler's way of getting rid of non-Jewish folks who did not accept Malthus.

Bill Gates is funding 10 million start ups if he likes them. Push tunnels there. I cannot help you.


He murdered 7 million Jews also!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
235. EnergyMoron
3:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Actually you are correct about my mental status (PTSD on energy reporting issues... purple heart).

Look at the video very closely. It did engender a lot of controversy which supertyphoon picked up on.

A Freudian slip was applauded.

Us PTSD folks pcik up on things very quickly. Perhaps too quickly... but in this case it was very mainstream.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
234. EnergyMoron
3:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


JFLORIDA,
That's ok the tunnels are for everyone! Not that I believe in Hitlers practices for sure! He murdered over 21 million people. 13 million of which where christians!


Tunnels were for Anne Franke. Definitely. War is not good but is not murder.... although the death chambers were Hitler's way of getting rid of non-Jewish folks who did not accept Malthus.

Bill Gates is funding 10 million start ups if he likes them. Push tunnels there. I cannot help you.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
233. cyclonebuster
3:41 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Agreed. See my initial post although I think the audience would have been willing to kill a million.


You are crazy!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
232. EnergyMoron
3:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Bill Gates doesn't want to kill a billion people. That's just crazy.


Agreed. See my initial post although I think the audience would have been willing to kill a million.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
231. cyclonebuster
3:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Bill Gates doesn't want to kill a billion people. That's just crazy.


Correct! People just twist what he says!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
229. EnergyMoron
3:23 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:
Ah yes, the infamous "Gates Equation"



"Let's take a look. First we got population. The world today has 6.8 billion people. That's headed up to about 9 billion. Now if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by perhaps 10 or 15 percent" - Bill Gates, eugenicist


Calling the bluff.

The efficiency number is correct (checked it myself). Do you have any problem with this plan? China is poised to kick our rear end...

If C=0 then P is eliminated from the equation.

But that is why I have solar panels myself... I am not a Malthusian

I wish Mr. Gates well.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
228. cyclonebuster
3:16 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
If Bill Gates wants to head towards "0" Co2 he must build my tunnels! BTW it is not just Co2, fossil fuels emit many GHGs!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
226. cyclonebuster
3:01 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
CB - thats a eugenics troll you are selling a tunnel to. Just sayen.


JFLORIDA,
That's ok the tunnels are for everyone! Not that I believe in Hitlers practices for sure! He murdered over 21 million people. 13 million of which where christians!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
224. cyclonebuster
2:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:


True, but if you are ready for prime time find an investment banker.

PGE canceled a wave project today

Link

Research is good...


Wave generation isn't 24/7/365 since waves don't occur all the time! Tunnel generation is 24/7/365 since the gulf stream flows 100% all the time.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
220. EnergyMoron
2:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Bill Gates plan

I keep on putting up links to plans.

This talk actually created a lot of controversy because of an apparent Freudian slip on Gates' part.

Technically it is not Malthusian since promoting economic development does reduce birthrates.

However, that is not the most important point.

The "E" can be improved by precisely what he says.

"P" is immaterial and to focus on it is Malthusian.

I forget the other letter (watched this quite a while ago) but "C", zero carbon... hey... if zero carbon population does not matter :).

Good talk.

But do the French have a unique patent on how to reuse nuclear waste? I don't understand why additional research is needed, except perhaps since Americans want zero cost for energy.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
219. EnergyMoron
2:31 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Natural gas man against Proposition 23

Okay, I will be non-partisan but bluntly political.

Please vote NO on proposition 23.

Why?

Natural gas is only a bridge fuel to a renewable energy future. Renewable energy future. Are we there yet? No...

California has undertaken a very great experiment on bringing about a renewable energy future.

Have mistakes been made? Yes....

Are they fatal? No....

California is leading the way for the country and the world on how energy needs to be produced 50 to 100 years from now.

Keep this experiment alive.

Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
218. EnergyMoron
2:09 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:
Calculate how many joules of energy exist in the flowing waters of the Gulf Stream? How much kinetic energy is there in the Gulf Steam?


True, but if you are ready for prime time find an investment banker.

PGE canceled a wave project today

Link

Research is good...
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
216. EnergyMoron
2:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
EnergyMoron no one has really suggested we do anything but promote clean, renewable energy. If you are going to I need to see sources and plans and not just obnoxious comments.


Tool to help Americans save energy

It's pretty simple... stop wasting energy.

The alternative is to stop using AC, iphones, computers, etc. for 12 hours a day since 50% of Americas energy is coal.

Start conserving energy
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
208. cyclonebuster
12:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Calculate how many joules of energy exist in the flowing waters of the Gulf Stream? How much kinetic energy is there in the Gulf Steam?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
207. cyclonebuster
12:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Bosch Green Tip Contest

Some folks want tales from ordinary folks on saving.

Anyway, realism

1) China
2) India

What are you going to do nuke them? Tell them they cannot have refrigerators and live the US lifestyle?

3) US

Tax (although I favor this no way)? Tell folks to give up AC, computers, cars?

4) Europe

Ditto, although they are much more efficient already.

Can you please tell me one reason why we are not headed to 560 (as Hansen's 2006 work indicates)?

Do you have a car? AC?


Tunnels solve all that!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
206. EnergyMoron
12:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


350 IS TO MUCH 450 IS ABSURD!


Bosch Green Tip Contest

Some folks want tales from ordinary folks on saving.

Anyway, realism

1) China
2) India

What are you going to do nuke them? Tell them they cannot have refrigerators and live the US lifestyle?

3) US

Tax (although I favor this no way)? Tell folks to give up AC, computers, cars?

4) Europe

Ditto, although they are much more efficient already.

Can you please tell me one reason why we are not headed to 560 (as Hansen's 2006 work indicates)?

Do you have a car? AC?
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
205. cyclonebuster
12:24 AM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Okay.

1) Personal responsibility is important.

2) I am trying to get across energy efficiency makes money. For some reason folks like Limbaugh rail against efficiency. So they don't like folks saving money? We waste 50% of the energy in this country.

3) If you want to convince other people that lifestyle changes are necessary you better do so yourself. Having somebody talk about "going green" on their show and flying the audience down under makes no sense.

4) Your argumentation is actually similar to the deniers. The deniers say "I don't know" means it isn't. You are correct you have no way of checking my claims; on the other hand you cannot dismiss them as true or false.

Survey of Scientists on AGW

I place myself in the 44% biggest group that says that there could be a catastrophe. If one is personally convinced that there could be a catastrophe then one will take appropriate actions.

Dr. Hansen on avoiding dangerous climate change

To quote, "However he did stress the point that we have to start emphasising conservation and efficiency by taxing emissions otherwise we will start squeezing oil/gas from unconventional sources such as shale oil and tar sands. That is something we absolutely can not afford to do."

Okay, if folks want cheap flights and cars then they want bitumen production (the proper term). If you don't want bitumen production don't go to Australia.

I don't have that many interactions with the scientists (mostly very right wing engineers is my professional milieu, and AGW is not very popular with them). I really can't say whether they walk the talk themselves (once again, a clear exception is Hansen, who is willing to get arrested for his protests against coal).

The program is simple.

1) Stop wasting energy (why is a tax needed for this? Energy conservation makes economic sense...)
2) Shut down coal plants
3) The cat is out of the bag with bitumen production... the only way to get it back in is conservation.

But even with bitumen we can still keep under 450...


350 IS TO MUCH 450 IS ABSURD!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20521
204. EnergyMoron
10:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
You are making a argument for personal responsibility based in credibility and identity. After demonstrating neither. Even if we did have that we would need to know the solutions are just that and not isolated endeavors that pollute more than present sources.

Its a complicated route.


Okay.

1) Personal responsibility is important.

2) I am trying to get across energy efficiency makes money. For some reason folks like Limbaugh rail against efficiency. So they don't like folks saving money? We waste 50% of the energy in this country.

3) If you want to convince other people that lifestyle changes are necessary you better do so yourself. Having somebody talk about "going green" on their show and flying the audience down under makes no sense.

4) Your argumentation is actually similar to the deniers. The deniers say "I don't know" means it isn't. You are correct you have no way of checking my claims; on the other hand you cannot dismiss them as true or false.

Survey of Scientists on AGW

I place myself in the 44% biggest group that says that there could be a catastrophe. If one is personally convinced that there could be a catastrophe then one will take appropriate actions.

Dr. Hansen on avoiding dangerous climate change

To quote, "However he did stress the point that we have to start emphasising conservation and efficiency by taxing emissions otherwise we will start squeezing oil/gas from unconventional sources such as shale oil and tar sands. That is something we absolutely can not afford to do."

Okay, if folks want cheap flights and cars then they want bitumen production (the proper term). If you don't want bitumen production don't go to Australia.

I don't have that many interactions with the scientists (mostly very right wing engineers is my professional milieu, and AGW is not very popular with them). I really can't say whether they walk the talk themselves (once again, a clear exception is Hansen, who is willing to get arrested for his protests against coal).

The program is simple.

1) Stop wasting energy (why is a tax needed for this? Energy conservation makes economic sense...)
2) Shut down coal plants
3) The cat is out of the bag with bitumen production... the only way to get it back in is conservation.

But even with bitumen we can still keep under 450...
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
203. Faleh
5:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2010
very intersing subject>>>>>

IF you muslims you MUST beleive that the weather in arab pensula should change in the future >>> maybe before 100 year>> this weather change issue can mot be beleve <<
thank and sorry
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
201. EnergyMoron
2:52 AM GMT on November 01, 2010
Dr. Hansen's solution

I am referencing Dr. Hansen's solution.

What more do you want?

Obviously this blog thinks I am in the denier camp.

Anything but.

I am not in the Malthusian camp, which apparently makes me scum
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
200. EnergyMoron
2:50 AM GMT on November 01, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
With the increase in intensity of winter storms and a decrease in frequency of weaker systems  - combined with the distablization of climate that comes with change I think It would be wise to parameterize the influences of cyclonic storms on the dispersal of invasive species and pathogens. Im putting a few sources together to attempt a reasonable blog post but if you see anything drop it on mine.


Plastics, bad

If the object is to reach the right wing (rather than to preach to the choir) I would recommend this since it would get their attention.

Their is weather and their are other sorts of human ecologies....

Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
199. EnergyMoron
2:47 AM GMT on November 01, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
This is not the place for Ad hominem attacks.

No one has even begun discussing solutions and when they do it will be referenced and cited. Not some individual pointing fingers.

It just makes the need for reasoned discussion all the more evident.

A anonymous poster has no verifiable "carbon footprint." Thats a totally absurd concept to bring up and discus here. This is reminiscent of the "if algore has a big plane and a big house then why do I need to be reasonable" line of argument.

It goes no where but round and round.


Actually, a reasonable point since he probably could not answer the question.

I was the ad hominum target. I am simply asking the same question my daughter asked of a panel of "experts"

Interestingly enough, the IPCC person was the only one who had a good answer.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
197. EnergyMoron
1:25 AM GMT on November 01, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Thanks to people like EnergyMoron and the like, not to mention all of the "true" deniers (those who completely oppose the science).


What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it?

What is your personal investment in green things?

Do you use AC, transport?
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.