Time for New Community: What to Do ? (4)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2010

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Time for New Community: What to Do ? (4)

This is the final in a series of blogs that explores the political nature of climate change, strategies for communication of information about climate change, and how to move forward our collective response to climate, climate variability, and climate change. One of the ideas that I have advocated is to make much larger and more diverse the people who are contributing to the discussion and knowledge base of climate change. In this final piece, I want to move away from the original points of the first three articles to broader issues of developing and providing information about climate change. (Previous articles in this series: one, two, three)

Though a few scientists and politicians identified human-caused climate change as an important environmental issue before World War II, until the last 20 years or so, climate change remained primarily in the realm of scientific investigation and scientists. With the emergence of global warming as an environmental issue that will disrupt societies, climate change became an issue of public policy. In contrast to, for example, the issue of tobacco and lung cancer or even coal burning and acid rain, we have not moved to situation where the definitive proof of global warming and its consequences lie behind us. There is not, therefore, a definitive boundary between the time of scientific research and the time of public policy. The two are required to coexist. (Here is new paper that I wrote with Maria Carmen Lemos on the use of climate projections in public policy.)

In the initial research-dominated phase of an issue that emerges as a public policy priority, it is natural to imagine scientists and science communicators working to inform the public as well as those who are perceived as having a need to know. This is a push of information, and in earlier articles I have argued that there has been quite an effective push of knowledge about climate change (Who is the Audience?). As a result of this successful push of information, there are many individuals who are motivated to take action on climate change – or at least to figure out what to do about it. Aside from high profile efforts like the Climate Action Partnership, I have worked with people considering how to migrate forests northward, anticipate new public health risks, manage fisheries, price carbon, maintain urban water supplies – the list goes on. My first point is that there are already many more people on this solution side than there or on the physical climate research side. We need to recognize more vigorously the resources represented by this community and to develop the capability for this community to both pull on the climate-science knowledge base and to contribute to development of that knowledge base.

There is a second point that follows from the recognition of this community outside of the mainstream of climate researchers. As an example, consider the issues facing a water resource manager in coastal Florida versus North Dakota. In Florida there are concerns of sea-level rise, salt water intrusion, and the sinking of land as ground water is removed. Wetland ecosystems are central to Florida’s water management challenges. In North Dakota concerns are more likely dominated by better management of rivers and lakes in the presence of more volatile drought and flood cycles, as well as competition with agricultural needs. Both managers have to deal with their current facilities, projections of population, tax bases, and local, state, regional, and national water policies. The take away message is that to incorporate climate variability and climate change into plans for management and development is strongly influenced by the specifics of the problem. It is so strongly influenced by the specifics, that it is unreasonable to expect that a guidebook to climate solutions will be generated by a relatively modest number of climate experts and then prescribed to a waiting audience. With the enormous complexity that will be faced in seeking climate solutions, it is, again, necessary to consider how community-based approaches can be used to allow the organization of the complexity and the emergence of new solution paths.

I advocate, here, a re-framing of the climate and climate-change problem. Rather than this being, primarily, a scientific problem with scientists or an institutional service pushing information to waiting and perhaps under-informed audiences, we must develop community-based resources that allow for the participation of an informed community in the evolution of climate solutions. This supports the pull of information, self-organization, self-correction, and the ability of the community to inform the research needs of the community. Simple to say – more difficult to accomplish.

Climate and weather scientists have been at the forefront of data sharing and community activities (again a reference to Paul Edwards’s book, A Vast Machine). A major reason for sharing of weather data is the need to have routine observations of the entire globe in order to provide weather forecasts. Within the climate community the development of the Community Climate Model serves as a premiere example of community resources. Now the Community Earth System Model (CESM)l this activity has provided a series of models available for general use by both scientific and non-scientific communities. The CESM activities have engaged through its working groups a large number of scientists. This activity was begun at a time when climate science was, primarily, the concern of research scientists and when computational and intellectual resources required the centralization of efforts to develop super systems that were beyond the ability of individual researchers.

The community re-framing that I am advocating recognizes the evolution and successes of open source communities and the use of open innovation techniques in management of complexity, complex problem solving, and the emergence of knowledge (Wikipedia, for instance). Compared with the original concept that led to the Community Earth System Model (CESM)l, these open communities have broader, more active, less managed participation by the community. A re-framing might be that a model would be built by the community not for the community, even if there is substantial community participation.

The concepts of open communities raise many concerns, especially when there is a need to assure accuracy and truthfulness of information and results. Going back to the basic definition of the scientific method there is the notion of controlled experimentation, where the environment is controlled to isolate cause and effect. There is the fundamental practice of anonymous peer review to assure accuracy. Often in the building of complex systems like rockets, there is need for control over process to assure mission success. Opening up processes and knowledge generation raises the risk of inaccurate knowledge – it potentially opens up a body of knowledge to political manipulation or advocacy or advertisement. The question then arises on how to reduce these negative risks to a level that they are overwhelmed by the positive attributes of problems being solved and the emergence of solutions out of the complexity.

The questions of a successful community become, therefore, how is governance instituted to assure the accuracy of information, how is credibility established, how are inaccuracies identified and corrected? The success of an open community relies on its relationships with existing and evolving entities, institutions, and communities. The existence of successful open communities suggests plausibility. The goal of an open climate community would an accessible knowledge base that serves as trusted resource of objective information for those who have an interest in climate and climate change.

Time. At the start of this series of articles I mentioned that one thing that is necessary to evolve climate and climate change, productively, as an issue is time. When I wrote that, I was thinking of the half-generational time span that is needed for controversial environmental issues to rise above the opposition to the changes in behavior that are necessary to address the issue. I was thinking that we need to shorten that time span. Part of what is needed to accelerate our response to knowledge of climate change and actual climate change is to shorten the amount of time that is needed to produce accurate and usable information about climate change. This requires us to generate new methods of review and evaluation of knowledge and to accept new ways of the inclusion of uncertainty in complex problem solving. This requires education and alteration of climate scientists and the scientific process just as much as it requires education by scientists about climate and climate change. The large number of people already making decisions about how to invest their time and money in response to the body of knowledge about climate change will move much faster than is consistent with the traditional generation of scientific knowledge. We need the best climate information at any given time. Despite the challenges of governance to assure accuracy, if we don’t develop open community based approaches to climate change problem solving we will not accelerate our collective response; we will miss opportunity, and we will isolate the generation and use of scientifically generated knowledge from problem solving when it is most critical.

r

Pakistan: I am certain to maintain an interest in Pakistan far longer than the average disaster attention span. My youngest sister Elizabeth is Counsel General in Peshawar so I keep an eye on the news. Attention to the Pakistan flood is moral imperative, a humanitarian imperative, and a security imperative. (Pakistan Flooding: A Climate Disaster, Yours truly on Chicago-based Radio Islam, Rood interview)

Here are some places that my sister has recommended for the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. Organizations she sees.

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

U.S. State Department Recommended Charities

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Portlight Disaster Relief at Wunderground.com



Figure 1. U.S. State Department blog on Pakistani floods Flooding Extent


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283. cyclonebuster
12:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2010
Quoting AEKDB1990:
And a story about how global warming is killing the aspen forests of the mountain west.

Link


Tunnels prevent that!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
281. Ossqss
1:59 AM GMT on October 21, 2010
Quoting AEKDB1990:
I did not say that Ossqss was sounded like Timothy McVeigh merely because he brought up Agenda 21, as you falsely claimed. I said he sounded like Timothy McVeigh because they both used the same arguments.


LOL, you mean the information contained in the link to the official UN Agenda 21 site I provided sounded like that ? You people are too funny. Ya gotta get out of your room once in a while :)


I have probably read more peer reviewed and official information than you have played video games. I read the links too.... You obviously don't or you would retract your insulting, inaccurate, and demeaning statements. How low can ya go, don't ya know ! . ....

Unreal dude ! This blog has now entered a new low that shouldn't be tolerated..........pitiful really . out>>>>>>>



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
266. cyclonebuster
9:59 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Cat got your tongue again? LOL!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
265. cyclonebuster
5:45 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting AEKDB1990:
I think the tunnel idea is flaky and I'm not paying attention to those posts. Ossqss's conspiracy theories are really creepy, like something Timothy McVeigh would say. So he's going on ignore.

Great posts Michael.


Why is it flaky?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
264. cyclonebuster
5:42 PM GMT on October 20, 2010
"The Bering Strait will end up becoming a significant marine highway in the future, and we're seeing it with Russia, the way they are promoting this maritime transportation route above Russia right now, today."

Warming has facilitated such travel. The National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado reported last month that Arctic sea ice coverage was recorded at a summer low of 1.84 million square miles. It said sea ice melted to the third-lowest level since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

More open water is something Colvin's veteran icebreaker captains confirm.

They're also concerned about the state of their fleet.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
262. cyclonebuster
3:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Good luck on tomorrow it took me five years to figure it out!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
261. cyclonebuster
3:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Our atmosphere is now a dirty radiator so to say!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
259. cyclonebuster
3:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
It is like having a dirty radiator on your car The more clogged it becomes the more inefficent it becomes and the faster your car engine will overheat.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
258. cyclonebuster
3:31 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:
As an example of why sustained ocean surface cooling in the way cyclonebuster talks about isn't possible, one only has to look at the dominant natural cycle that affects climate, ENSO; during a La Nina (like right now), the equatorial Pacific cools down at the surface, but overall heat content actually increases (including the west Pacific warm pool, heat content decreases in the east Pacific; because of this, it isn't possible for a La Nina to sustain itself indefinitely because the subsurface eventually warms up - despite feedbacks which otherwise sustain it (the opposite happens during El Nino, except the ocean looses heat, which makes sense because it is warmer at the surface than it otherwise would be, just as a La Nina is cooler than otherwise). The following graph illustrates this; overall warm water volume (a measure of heat content) precedes SST anomalies by about 90 degrees (for El Ninos, SST anomalies reaches a maximum when WWV anomalies fall to zero, with maximum WWV anomalies occurring just before the El Nino develops):



Notice that the opposite holds true for La Ninas - WWV anomalies reach a minimum about the same time SST anomalies cross zero. A comparison of western vs. eastern Pacific anomalies shows that the west Pacific is the opposite of the east Pacific (you can already see that the ocean is "recharging" (western Pacific) even though the current La Nina is still strengthening (eastern Pacific), of note also the the significant long-term warming trend in the west Pacific):



Ironically, cyclonebuster often points to La Nina as an example of how his tunnels could work.


It is because we are trapping more heat Michael with more water vapor and GHGs! It is going to heat up more and more untill you get a thinner blanket then and only then will you allow more radiative heat to escape to space. The atmosphere we have created is trapping it.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
256. cyclonebuster
3:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Supposedly, they are able to stop global warming by cooling the ocean surface by bring colder water up from the depths (where temperatures drop to near freezing at the bottom), although I think the original intent was to stop hurricanes, since then, he has offered them as a cure for everything from energy to stabilizing weather patterns. However, there are reasons why they wouldn't work, his models aside (he has a video of plastic pipes put into flowing water), first being the density difference between cold and warm water and the intent to pump the cold water to the surface by utilizing the Gulf Stream (or other ocean currents) to do so, with no other source of power. Also, as for cooling the oceans down, this would only work for the surface - and would actually increase the rate of overall ocean warming (a big point he repeatedly denies) because a cooler ocean surface would upset the radiative balance (e.g. if an area of ocean is normally at 80 degrees when at equilibrium with incoming and outgoing radiation, cooling to down to, say, 75 degrees would mean that there is now a 5 degree difference from equilibrium, which naturally warms up to equilibrium; the heat that was supposedly removes simply goes into the deep ocean because of course if you bring cold water up, it has to be replaced somehow).

He has been repeatedly told this not only by me, but by many others on multiple forums (just do a Google search for cyclonebuster), including by scientists on RealClimate. Never mind the potential consequences (which explains my comment showing a collapse of THC at 207), or that it is virtually impossible to "control all weather to eliminate droughts, floods, tornadoes, etc" - the very nature of weather (random and chaotic) precludes this. The cooling effect, which could be done, but not in the way he says, wouldn't last long, at least until the deeper oceans warmed up - he always claims that they can cool back down because heat rises - only true though if there is cooler water to replace it - the only way to truly cool the earth down is to remove heat into space, or prevent it from coming in in the first place (the cold water in the deep ocean is only slowly replenished by cold water sinking at the poles, on a timescale of 1,000 years as part of the THC).


BTW the cold dense water at F1 is > the warm less dense water at F2. So we get F1 > F2. Any difference in pressure then flow occurs. In reality it works better with the deep cold dense water than it would if it were warm water because it carries with it more kinetic energy therefore it just pushes the warm water out of the way at the exit.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
255. cyclonebuster
3:15 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
They allow you to remove more radiative heat to space more effectivly because as you cool the SSTs with them less water vapor is formed thus allowing more radiative heat to escape the planet. This makes the GHG blanket thinner thus it traps less heat and so it radiates more heat to space! Can you dig it?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
253. cyclonebuster
3:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting AEKDB1990:
How?


Electrical power generation and upwelling of deep cold water to the surface when needed. The temperature of this upwelled water in the Gulfstream can be regulated to give a desired climate responce.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
251. cyclonebuster
2:56 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
They can control climate in many many ways!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
250. cyclonebuster
2:55 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting AEKDB1990:
Whats the tunnel story?


The story is not fiction!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
248. cyclonebuster
2:30 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
YES or NO

Do Tunnels work physically?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
247. cyclonebuster
2:27 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:
LOL:


cyclonebuster says:
October 19, 2010 at 8:46 pm

Tunnels are 24/7/365 for years!


Nobody there is going to listen, or if they do, not for long.


LOL! They can't comprehend that statement! I'll be glad to tutor them on it!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
246. cyclonebuster
2:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Going to? There never will be 20 billion people on this planet. Probably not even 10 billion; some projections even show population leveling off at below that and then declining. Nor is there any sensible reason to have that many people - just look at the populations of other large mammal species, especially great apes. Which are in the thousands, which shows just how much humans have overgrown their natural bounds (although there is no reason why the human population should be only thousands, since they can live worldwide, not just in a few areas; overconsumption again enters here, since human population was near a billion before the Industrial Revolution, was only two billion as recently as 1927).


You might be right with nukes around. But the Tunnels can support that easy!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
244. Ossqss
1:27 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


One must eventually ask the question how is the planet going to support 20 billion people one day?


Hummmmm,,,,,, assuming such...

Soooo, what is your solution?

How do you do it Bro..... ?

Tell us~

Cave man thing?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
241. cyclonebuster
12:57 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
TRUE or FALSE?

Do Tunnels work physically?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
239. cyclonebuster
12:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Tropics in Decline as Natural Resources Exhausted at Alarming Rate
ScienceDaily (Oct. 18, 2010) %u2014 New analysis shows populations of tropical species are plummeting and humanity's demands on natural resources are sky-rocketing to 50 per cent more than the earth can sustain, reveals the 2010 edition of WWF's Living Planet Report -- the leading survey of the planet's health.
The biennial report, produced in collaboration with the Zoological Society of London and the Global Footprint Network, uses the global Living Planet Index as a measure of the health of almost 8,000 populations of more than 2,500 species. The global Index shows a decrease by 30 per cent since 1970, with the tropics hardest hit showing a 60 per cent decline in less than 40 years.

"There is an alarming rate of biodiversity loss in low-income, often tropical countries while the developed world is living in a false paradise, fuelled by excessive consumption and high carbon emissions," said Jim Leape, Director General of WWF International.

While the report shows some promising recovery by species' populations in temperate areas, thanks in part to greater conservation efforts and improvements in pollution and waste control, tracked populations of freshwater tropical species have fallen by nearly 70 per cent -- greater than any species' decline measured on land or in our oceans.

The Ecological Footprint, one of the indicators used in the report, shows that our demand on natural resources has doubled since 1966 and we're using the equivalent of 1.5 planets to support our activities. If we continue living beyond the Earth's limits, by 2030 we'll need the equivalent of two planets' productive capacity to meet our annual demands.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
238. cyclonebuster
12:14 AM GMT on October 20, 2010
Quoting Ossqss:
New community ? :)

Ya better pay more attention to the details driving your AGW initiative. Most of you don't exist in the end game as you think you will. Just sayin...............

Read it ! It is real folks!

http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/agenda21/res_agenda21_00.shtml






One must eventually ask the question how is the planet going to support 20+ billion people one day?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
237. cyclonebuster
11:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2010
Don't Blame Dairy Cows for (Greenhouse) Gas Emissions, New Study Shows
ScienceDaily (Oct. 19, 2010) — Forget all the tacky jokes about cow flatulence causing climate change. A new study reports that the dairy industry is responsible for only about 2.0 percent of all US greenhouse gas emissions.
Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
236. Ossqss
11:51 PM GMT on October 19, 2010
New community ? :)

Ya better pay more attention to the details driving your AGW initiative. Most of you don't exist in the end game as you think you will. Just sayin...............

Read it ! It is real folks!

http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/agenda21/res_agenda21_00.shtml




Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
235. cyclonebuster
11:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Cyclonebuster, did you mention tunnels?



Here is what happened from October 2007 to January 2008; notice the ocean temperature in particular, especially the Southern Hemisphere (and what happens to overall global temperatures in January _ I have ever seen them actually say "coolest" in these surface rankings before or since):









It is also interesting to note that for land-only records, there are years going back to 1939 as the warmest on record for these four months (December for the Northern Hemisphere; obviously, ocean temperatures were far cooler back then as evidenced by the overall hemispheric and global records). This also shows that cooling ocean temperatures alone, even if your tunnels could work, would NOT cool land down except for near the coast.


BTW Michael what do you mean "if" the tunnels "could" work? I have already shown video proof of the tunnel working! LOL!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
234. cyclonebuster
11:40 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

Tunnels prevent this!


Drought May Threaten Much of Globe Within Decades, Analysis Predicts
ScienceDaily (Oct. 19, 2010) %u2014 The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to a new study by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai. The detailed analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.

In contrast, higher-latitude regions from Alaska to Scandinavia are likely to become more moist.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
233. cyclonebuster
11:22 PM GMT on October 19, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Cyclonebuster, did you mention tunnels?



Here is what happened from October 2007 to January 2008; notice the ocean temperature in particular, especially the Southern Hemisphere (and what happens to overall global temperatures in January _ I have ever seen them actually say "coolest" in these surface rankings before or since):









It is also interesting to note that for land-only records, there are years going back to 1939 as the warmest on record for these four months (December for the Northern Hemisphere; obviously, ocean temperatures were far cooler back then as evidenced by the overall hemispheric and global records). This also shows that cooling ocean temperatures alone, even if your tunnels could work, would NOT cool land down except for near the coast.


True or False?

Cooler oceans cool the atmosphere then can a cooler atmosphere cool temperatures far inland?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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