The Messenger Matters: What to Do ? (3)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 3:40 PM GMT on September 13, 2010

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The Messenger Matters: What to Do ? (3)

The first article in this series was motivated by a Republican candidate for State Office coming to my office to talk about climate change. The previous two entries in the series (one, two) have focused on the identification of the evolving political nature of climate change and what that means to knowledge-based education and communication. I have argued that scientists, generically, are not well positioned to participate in ideological confrontation and are easy foils for savvy political strategists. This leads to a dilemma - there is a need for communicating correct information about climate change, but at least a subset of this communication serves to fuel the political cause of those who oppose using resources to address climate change on a political or ideological basis. It is easy to make things worse.

One of the common points made in political arguments is that scientists sustain arguments about the threats of climate change because it is a way to keep funding coming to the field. This is a classic conflict of interest argument, which does not, intuitively, carry a lot of substance. For example, as Steve Schneider pointed out, if scientists were truly vested in a conspiracy to enhance and maintain their funding, then they would not state that global warming is “unequivocal” (IPCC 2007). It would be a lot smarter to say that we think global warming is important, but we need to do a WHOLE lot more research. For scientists to state that warming is “unequivocal,” and that we really need to pay attention to impacts often works against the obvious self-interest of the climate scientist. Such a position empowers new fields of expertise and their constituencies. In a tight budgetary time this pulls money away from science. But like the knowledge of climate change itself, if too much effort is made to counter the conflict of interest argument, then this only serves to fuel and spread the political argument. (“More research” is quite often a political tactic to delay action.)

There is a point to be extracted from the above. The messenger is important.

The role of the scientist in the communication of scientific issues and their possible consequences is complex. Scientists open themselves up to the conflict-of-interest criticism if there is even an indirect link between what people say and the way they get their funding. However, scientists are required by the scientific method and, de facto, contractual obligation to report their research. In their reports they need to write why the work is novel and important. Being novel and important does contribute to sustained funding - as it should. On top of this there is constant pressure from agency program managers and politicians for scientists to communicate their results in a way the public can understand. There was a time period when I was in the government where it was stylish to be asked the question “so what?” The implication of this question was that you must go beyond saying something is important, but you must say why it is important - often we were told, “so your mother could understand it.” In addition to these motivations and demands for scientists to communicate broadly, there is also the role of advocacy. There are some who see issues as so important that they move beyond the purveyors of objective knowledge to advocates of particular points of view (Scientists as Advocates).

Earlier in this series I put forward the notion that scientists needed to be cognizant of their role in what is now political discourse and, perhaps, to seek to do no harm. This requires scientists not only to understand their audience, but to also understand where their point of view is perceived to lie. Assume that one determines that they are engaged in a political exchange. Then given that the IPCC report has been politicized, authors of the IPCC report are by definition engaging in a political discussion. Being in a political discussion the role of correct facts and consideration of complete knowledge becomes complex. Not only does the aforementioned role of factual knowledge in science-motivated political issues come into play, but the IPCC author is a political voice motivated by a perceived partisan defense of their position and their work. Careful accurate statements by a scientist in such a position is likely to do little good, and careless statements are likely to generate new tendrils of the political argument and contribute to escalating personal attacks and attempts to discredit the messenger.

The messenger is important, and the most obvious way past the problem of the politicized messenger is to expand and diversify the messenger base. Perhaps the easiest diversification of the messenger base is to engage a far broader cross section of voices from the community of scientists. There are experts outside of the community of IPCC authors and the lead authors of classic papers. These voices bring new strength and perspectives to the body of knowledge – different ways of stating ideas. Often these voices are young, the next generation, and if we have confidence in our efforts, then we should have confidence in those who have learned from us.

The idea of the inclusion of new voices in scientific communication is almost simplistic; however, it is not easy to achieve. For example, journalists and reporters naturally come to the expert and the people at the top of the author list. They come to people who have made news, perhaps have a history of controversy or the notoriety of an advocate. In this case, if there is to be diversification to new voices, then making that happen might fall to the scientists themselves - scientists opening the paths to new voices. Sometimes this requires a harsh personal accounting of where a scientist sits in the political and communication environment, followed by self-imposition of boundaries. Am I doing good? Am I doing harm?

The role of translators between the climate expert and a particular audience is growing. The audience ranges from the general public to people in business, in government, in nongovernmental organizations, in academia and education, and even to climate scientists from different sub-disciplines of climate science. Translators are often needed in complex problems. The experts in the field may or may not be good communicators, and they are often not comprehensive and objective.

Traditionally, a subset of journalists stood as translators, but the past decade has seen great changes in journalism. We have the democratization of journalism with the emergence of, for example, blogs; the decline of structured, editor-supervised journalism; the emergence of point-of-view journalism; and the identification of virtually all authors as representing a point of view or a political position. In many instances, I strive to serve as a translator in these blogs/articles, and I have made the deliberate decision in my research career to translate between fields.

A natural question arises in this search for translators and honest sources of information: are there ways that we can organize to provide a source of substantiated, vetted, and unbiased climate information? Ideas of community wikis and community-certified blogs emerge. (see Judy Curry’s controversial take on this) This will be explored more in future articles, but such a self organization has, potentially, profound implications for the process of peer review and role of the professional societies. Such an approach is, perhaps, a democratization of science, which would change the role of the expert.

The widest diversification of the messengers of climate change comes from the active inclusion of people who are positioning themselves to adapt to climate change and to address the changes in energy policy that are necessary to affect climate change. I have mentioned several times the paper by Daniel Farber that concludes that scientific investigation of climate change warrants legal standing in U.S. courts (Trust, but Verify). I have also discussed the positions articulated by Jim Rogers the CEO of of Duke Energy. Responses to climate change can be found in national security, energy distribution, municipal climate action plans, the insurance industry, etc. These are people and organizations who have looked at the knowledge, looked at the evidence, and have started to align capital and human resources with the solution space. These are the stories and the messages that need to be brought forward. Diversification of the messenger community outside of the community of scientists and academics and government researchers not only brings forward voices who are responding to the body of climate-change knowledge, but also untangles conflict-of-interest perceptions and provides concrete examples of the translation of climate science to action. This is where some principles of organization need to be focused.

r

Pakistan: I am certain to maintain an interest in Pakistan far longer than the average disaster attention span. My youngest sister Elizabeth is Counsel General in Peshawar so I keep an eye on the news. We remain at the start of this flood, and we are just beginning to realize the consequences. Attention to the Pakistan flood is moral imperative, a humanitarian imperative, and a security imperative. (Pakistan Flooding: A Climate Disaster)

Here are some places that my sister has recommended for the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. Organizations she sees.

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

U.S. State Department Recommended Charities

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Portlight Disaster Relief at Wunderground.com



Figure 1. U.S. State Department blog on Pakistani floods Washed out bridge in Pakistan. The U.S. has helped replace several bridges in remote regions in the northwest of Pakistan.


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394. EnergyMoron
9:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
(“More research” is quite often a political tactic to delay action.)

That is from the blog itself.

We have a personal responsibility for action. I have taken action to reduce my personal carbon footprint.

That is the point I am trying to make.

While research into harvesting the gulf stream is good, what are we doing now?

Why AGW is not selling?

1) High carbon lifestyle (Gore's) good
2) Saving energy/low carbon lifestyle not worthy of mention (solar panels bad?)
3) Cost doesn't apparently matter although the nation is broke.

Dr. Rood is correct; the messenger matters.

As a conservative type convinced of the science (and I agree something needs to be done), yah, God help us all.

Personal responsibility matters. It really does.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
393. EnergyMoron
7:21 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Snopes.com on Al Gore's Energy Usage

Al Gore does not walk the talk. Period.

He, Prince Charles, and all these other high energy use types are the reason why the science has no credibility.

What is your carbon footprint Misanthrope? And what are you doing to reduce it?
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
392. EnergyMoron
7:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


So what we going to do when AGW warms the planet more and creates more cloud cover and moisture in the atmosphere and will lower solar power output and thus even cold water upwelling can't radiate back out to space? We don't get 24/7/365 X how many years from solar panels.


What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it?

Please answer the question.

Please answer the question on economics also.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
391. cyclonebuster
7:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Pollution effects of Co2 on our oceans.




Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
390. cyclonebuster
6:44 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:




Residential solar PV for me is on the order of 120 dollars/mWH. The costs from the DOE (Obama administration so nobody can blame the DOE for a "Republican" bias) are wholesale.

The disgusting thing is that a coal plant just got through with the permitting process in Texas. Yup... it isn't even the cheapest alternative according to the Obama administration DOE numbers.

So where does the gulf stream project sit on the cost chart?

Personally I don't see why they ain't going beserk with geothermal projects out west right now.

But what does this Gulf Stream thing cost?


So what we going to do when AGW warms the planet more and creates more cloud cover and moisture in the atmosphere and will lower solar power output and thus even cold water upwelling can't radiate back out to space? We don't get 24/7/365 X how many years from solar panels.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
389. cyclonebuster
6:35 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Although I accept AGW as established fact, this is a perfect example of pseudo-science. You cannot connect AGW and Katrina. Period.

What is the cost?

Will the system harm the ecology of the Gulf Stream?


The cost is less than one Katrina to save any Katrina cost in the future is a wise investment! Global warming warms our oceans and so we will get more Katrinas,Andrews,Wilmas and Camilles in the future and hurricane seasons like 2005.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
387. EnergyMoron
5:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Where Dr. Hansen is correct is that

1) Close down coal plants
2) Nuclear
3) Efficiency

His program rocks.

Al Gore is a clown lawyer and is to be ignored.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
386. EnergyMoron
4:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2010




Residential solar PV for me is on the order of 120 dollars/mWH. The costs from the DOE (Obama administration so nobody can blame the DOE for a "Republican" bias) are wholesale.

The disgusting thing is that a coal plant just got through with the permitting process in Texas. Yup... it isn't even the cheapest alternative according to the Obama administration DOE numbers.

So where does the gulf stream project sit on the cost chart?

Personally I don't see why they ain't going beserk with geothermal projects out west right now.

But what does this Gulf Stream thing cost?
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
384. EnergyMoron
4:38 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Less than one Katrina to save any Katrina cost in the future is a wise investment!


Although I accept AGW as established fact, this is a perfect example of pseudo-science. You cannot connect AGW and Katrina. Period.

What is the cost?

Will the system harm the ecology of the Gulf Stream?
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
383. cyclonebuster
12:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:


What is the current cost? It has to be economically feasible you know.


Less than one Katrina to save any Katrina cost in the future is a wise investment!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
382. martinitony
10:56 PM GMT on October 02, 2010
Important news on warming .

Things are heating up in Michigan and Ohio. Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan are all 5 and 0. Next week it''s Michigan State at Michigan. I will be routing for Michigan as Ohio State doesn't play Michigan State this year.

Big Ten is the conference to watch this year.

What's your expert opinion on these matters Dr. Rood?
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 970
381. EnergyMoron
1:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Gulfstream 24/7/365 X ??????????


What is the current cost? It has to be economically feasible you know.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
380. cyclonebuster
12:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2010
Quoting EnergyMoron:
Power Production

Well, irrespective of AGW or not, I love my new 33 panel system :).

Interesting that it is overproducing. In 2 days 46 kWH into the grid while 27 kWH from the grid (cooler temperatures but beaucoup sun).

What strikes me about both sides of the power debate is that they are consumers and not producers. Like, Rush Limbaugh "go and buy an SUV". I am proud to work on domestic oil production (think about it... we respect human rights here in the US). What sort of comment is that by Rush? Like, does he like to support terrorists and governments that do not respect human rights?

And then we have Al Gore with his smart meter racket... you know there are solar power producers that are getting ripped off with these meters... better when the thing just ran backwards (at least I have a buyback option up to 500 kWH/mo).

Now, as to WORLD’S FIRST WAVE AND TIDAL ENERGY... no... this technology is from 1966...

Rance Tidal Power Station

This is so simple... generate energy!


Gulfstream 24/7/365 X ??????????
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
378. EnergyMoron
11:43 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Power Production

Well, irrespective of AGW or not, I love my new 33 panel system :).

Interesting that it is overproducing. In 2 days 46 kWH into the grid while 27 kWH from the grid (cooler temperatures but beaucoup sun).

What strikes me about both sides of the power debate is that they are consumers and not producers. Like, Rush Limbaugh "go and buy an SUV". I am proud to work on domestic oil production (think about it... we respect human rights here in the US). What sort of comment is that by Rush? Like, does he like to support terrorists and governments that do not respect human rights?

And then we have Al Gore with his smart meter racket... you know there are solar power producers that are getting ripped off with these meters... better when the thing just ran backwards (at least I have a buyback option up to 500 kWH/mo).

Now, as to WORLD’S FIRST WAVE AND TIDAL ENERGY... no... this technology is from 1966...

Rance Tidal Power Station

This is so simple... generate energy!
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
377. cyclonebuster
12:01 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Set these in my "Weather Machines" and power the East coast!



Press Release

WORLD’S FIRST WAVE AND TIDAL ENERGY LEASING ROUND TO POWER UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF A MILLION HOMES

16 March 2010

The Crown Estate has announced the names of the successful bidders for the world’s first commercial wave and tidal leasing round, for ten sites in Scotland’s Pentland Firth and Orkney waters. The 1.2 GW of installed capacity proposed by the wave and tidal energy developers for 2020, 600 MW each from wave and tidal, is four times the peak output of Dounreay power station. This is enough electricity to meet the needs of up to three quarters of a million homes.

The developers have signed agreements for lease with The Crown Estate to take forward the development of their wave and tidal energy installations. This will allow developers to enter the statutory consenting process for their sites with security of access to the seabed.

As owners of the UK seabed out to the 12 nautical mile territorial limit and over 55 percent of the foreshore, we have been working closely with our partners, Scottish Government, Highlands & Islands Enterprise, Orkney Islands Council and the Highland Council, to maximise the benefits to the local area and the rest of Scotland from investments such as the offshore renewable energy programme.

The developers who have signed a total of ten agreements for lease are:

Wave:

SSE Renewables Developments Ltd, 200 MW for Costa Head site
Aquamarine Power Ltd & SSE Renewables Developments Ltd, 200 MW for Brough Head site
Scottish Power Renewables UK Ltd, 50 MW for Marwick Head site
E.ON, 50 MW for West Orkney South site
E.ON, 50 MW for West Orkney Middle South site
Pelamis Wave Power Ltd, 50 MW for Armadale site.
Tidal:

SSE Renewables Developments (UK) Ltd, 200 MW for Westray South site
SSE Renewables Holdings (UK) Ltd & OpenHydro Site Development Ltd, 200 MW for Cantick Head site
Marine Current Turbines Ltd, 100 MW for Brough Ness site
Scottish Power Renewables UK Ltd, 100 MW for Ness of Duncansby site.
The First Minister, Alex Salmond, MSP, MP said: “Today marks a major milestone in the global journey towards a low carbon future, with the commercial-scale deployment of marine renewables set to power our economies and help safeguard the planet for generations to come. These waters have been described as the Saudi Arabia of marine power and the wave and tidal projects unveiled today – exceeding the initial 700 MW target capacity – underline the rich natural resources of the waters off Scotland.

“Leading international energy companies and innovators continue to be drawn to Scottish waters, which boast as much as a quarter of Europe’s tidal and offshore wind resource and a tenth of the continent’s potential wave capacity. Together with some 11 GW of planned offshore wind developments, these latest marine renewables projects show that Scotland is powering ahead in the development and deployment of clean, green energy.

“The Scottish Government is working with The Crown Estate, developers and key partners to support this rapidly-growing industry, to ensure communities such as those in Caithness and Orkney are well-placed to reap the benefits and to secure Scotland’s position as the green energy powerhouse of Europe.”

The Secretary of State for Scotland Jim Murphy said: “This is a welcome world-first for Scotland and I am happy to see the major steps being taken to harness Scotland’s wave and tidal energy. It is an extremely exciting time for renewables in Scotland and across the rest of the UK as we use more of our natural resources to generate our power.

“Scotland is naturally placed to make the most of this green revolution and we will continue to work with others to ensure the potential of Scottish waters, alongside wind power, is fully met.

“It is encouraging to see the number of successful bidders for the Pentland Firth and Orkney waters. There is no doubt we are set to see a significant expansion in the commercial development of wave and tidal energy in the near future and the UK government will continue to put a low-carbon and energy-secure future at the heart of its priorities.”

Roger Bright, Chief Executive of The Crown Estate said: “I am delighted that today, in Wick and Kirkwall, we have announced the successful bidders for the world’s first commercial wave and tidal leasing round in the Pentland Firth and Orkney waters. The 1.2 GW of marine renewable generation capacity, 600 MW each from wave and tidal, is generating four times the electricity of Dounreay power station in its heyday. This shows the world that marine energy can produce significant electrical power and offer a real alternative to conventional power production.

“This announcement demonstrates the UK’s position as the leader in wave and tidal technologies. Through our experience and some of the best natural resources in the world we have been able to launch the first wave and tidal energy projects on a commercial scale. This emerging industry has a bright and promising future, with vast amounts of untapped energy in the seas all around us, and The Crown Estate looks forward to working with partners in Wick and Kirkwall to realise the area’s marine energy potential.”

The level of competition for sites within the leasing round area, with bids from 20 companies for 42 sites, highlights the appetite for companies to invest in Scottish waters. The Crown Estate takes its stewardship responsibility very seriously, and is pleased that this has resulted in the signing of agreements for lease with those companies demonstrating the clearest ability and pedigree to make best use of these sites in a responsible manner.

Link

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
376. cyclonebuster
12:17 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
"The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew's Director, Professor Stephen Hopper, says: "This study confirms what we already suspected, that plants are under threat and the main cause is human induced habitat loss."


More Than One-Fifth of World's Plants Face Threat of Extinction, New Analysis Finds
ScienceDaily (Sep. 29, 2010) %u2014 A global analysis of extinction risk for the world's plants, conducted by the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew together with the Natural History Museum, London and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), has revealed that the world's plants are as threatened as mammals, with one in five of the world's plant species threatened with extinction.The study is a major baseline for plant conservation and is the first time that the true extent of the threat to the world's estimated 380,000 plant species is known, announced as governments are to meet in Nagoya, Japan in mid-October 2010 to set new targets at the United Nations Biodiversity Summit.

Scientists from the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, the Natural History Museum and IUCN Specialist Groups carried out the Sampled Red List Index assessments on a representative sample of the world's plants, in response to the United Nations International Year of Biodiversity and the 2010 Biodiversity Target. The work relied heavily on the vast repository of botanical information held in Kew's Herbarium, Library, Art and Archives, which includes some eight million preserved plant and fungal specimens; on specimens held in the Natural History Museum's own extensive herbarium of six million specimens; on digital data from other sources and on collaboration with Kew's network of partners worldwide. The results of the Sampled Red List Index for Plants are being launched at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew at a press call on Sept. 28, 2010.

Link

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
375. atmoaggie
10:05 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wonder what the trend is for black carbon concentrations in Greenland as North America has reduced air pollution and China and the rest of Asia has increased pollution.


I used to talk frequently about the deposition of soot into the Arctic from Asia. And how a range of percentage of all ice melt (25% to 60%) exists in the peer-review literature.

What GISS has to say on that...

Tibet soot news: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20091214/
Alaska soot changes and effects: http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-309.pdf

A dated statement, not sure how the numbers might have changed upon better aerosol research of recent years:
A soot content of only a few parts per billion (ppb) is needed to reduce snow albedo by 1%. We estimate that soot reduces snow albedos about 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1.5% in the Arctic, and 0.6% in Greenland. (2003)
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_10/

This one's a bit a reach (90% of all melt due to soot?) but covers a bunch of the research about soot's contribution. Good links, too.
http://www.science20.com/the_soot_files/soot_black_icebergs_and_arctic_ice
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
374. cyclonebuster
9:37 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Looking at MODIS images of Greenland this past summer, I noticed large areas that appeared gray near the edges of the ice sheet, presumably due to soot. Like this one, where it is very obvious. Although that could also be from melt (soot would tend to accumulate though as the ice melted).



Notice all the melt ponds also.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
373. SWFLgazer
8:50 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting Legion:
I think that people's lifestyle choices (obesity, smoking) might have more to to with type 2 diabetes, heart attacks, lung cancer and asthma than global warming. I hear that climate change is also to blame for rabid bats in South America:

Saturday, September 25, 2010
I hate it when that happens: CO2 allegedly causes vampire bat attacks
Bats Kill More Children in Brazil | Seer Press

Another child, the fifth in a row of four children whose cause of death diagnosis according to the Peruvian health experts is rabies, is dead after being bitten by vampire bats.
...
Records showed that the children who died belonged to the indigent groups inhabiting near the border of Ecuador. The attack is subsequently associated with climate change.

Link


I hope their math about the connection to global warming is better than their math when they talk about the fifth in a row of four children dying from rabies.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
370. cyclonebuster
7:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Actually black carbon may not have a net warming effect (it can make ice and snow melt faster though):

NASA: Does heating from black carbon increase cooling from clouds?


I think it does Michael heres how! It is true it absorbs enough heat from the sun to melt the ice since we all know black absorbs more heat than white. Correct? However,not all that black carbon ends up on the snow some of it is in the atmosphere where it also gets heated and therefore it must heat the air that comes in contact with it. The same must be true if it falls in the ocean thus heating the water that surrounds it. Also who knows what other compounds are made during the process of photon bombardment. I am sure many other nasties are made!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
368. cyclonebuster
7:28 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Overview of conditions

After appearing to reach a low point on September 10, sea ice extent rose for three days and then began a second decline. Ice extent dropped to its lowest extent for the year on September 19, at 4.60 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles) .



Conditions in context

The revised minimum ice extent on September 19 occurred ten days later than the average date of the minimum ice extent for the period 1979 to 2000, and 8 days later than the 1979 to 2009 average. With the additional days of ice loss, 2010 is no longer the shortest period of summer ice loss since 1979.




Figure 2. The graph above shows daily Arctic sea ice extent as of September 26, 2010, along with daily ice extents for years wtih the previous four lowest minimum extents. The solid light blue line indicates 2010; orange shows 2009, pink shows 2008; dashed green shows 2007; light green shows 2005; and solid gray indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
%u2014Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Link

WOW! As the years go by we have to keep lowering the average! I want the skeptics to convince me on how this is a good thing!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
367. cyclonebuster
7:11 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Also, particulate pollution is NOT the same as global warming. In fact, it actually causes global cooling, as aerosols do (there is also no reason why it can't cause health problems and aggravate diseases, but as smoking causes cancer deniers claim (sort of correct), it doesn't actually CAUSE you to get sick, only as a risk factor, which can be determined by eliminating all other risk factors and seeing the remaining correlation - which incidentally is identical to how scientists determined how CO2 affects climate):



In fact, most of the expected greenhouse gas warming has been canceled out by aerosols, which together more than cancels out warming from CO2 alone ( 1.5 w/m for CO2 vs. -1.1 w/m2 for reflective tropospheric aerosols and -1 w/m2 for aerosol indirect effect; volcanic aerosols have also been greater recently than in the past).


Except for black carbon you are correct but the net health effects of that are disasterous to us and our economy! The message of that is clear!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
366. cyclonebuster
7:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
The tycoon goons are killing the planet and don't even know it!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
364. cyclonebuster
6:47 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting Legion:
I think that people's lifestyle choices (obesity, smoking) might have more to to with type 2 diabetes, heart attacks, lung cancer and asthma than global warming. I hear that climate change is also to blame for rabid bats in South America:

Saturday, September 25, 2010
I hate it when that happens: CO2 allegedly causes vampire bat attacks
Bats Kill More Children in Brazil | Seer Press

Another child, the fifth in a row of four children whose cause of death diagnosis according to the Peruvian health experts is rabies, is dead after being bitten by vampire bats.
...
Records showed that the children who died belonged to the indigent groups inhabiting near the border of Ecuador. The attack is subsequently associated with climate change.

Link


Why do ANYTHING to exacerbate the situation?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
362. cyclonebuster
6:37 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
We already know this happens with fossil fuel particulates so no surprise here!

Ultrafine Air Particles May Increase Firefighters' Risk for Heart Disease
ScienceDaily (Sep. 29, 2010) — Firefighters are exposed to potentially dangerous levels of ultrafine particulates at the time they are least likely to wear protective breathing equipment. Because of this, researchers believe firefighters may face an increased risk for heart disease from exposures during the fire suppression process.
Coronary heart disease is the No. 1 killer of American firefighters, with many of these incidents taking place during or just after a firefighting incident. Researchers say exposure to these harmful ultrafine air particulates could predispose firefighters to heart disease -- particularly in those at a less-than-optimal level of physical fitness or personal health.

In a study conducted collaboratively by the University of Cincinnati (UC), Underwriters Laboratories Inc. and the Chicago Fire Department, researchers have found that more than 70 percent of particulates released during fires are "ultrafine," invisible to the naked eye but able to be inhaled into the deepest compartments of the lung.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
361. cyclonebuster
6:31 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting Legion:


There is also a direct correlation between pork belly prices and what midgets think about Australia:



Quoting Legion:


There is also a direct correlation between pork belly prices and what midgets think about Australia:



People like you think apples and oranges are the same thing!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
359. cyclonebuster
6:22 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
The messenger tells ya'll to build the "Weather Machines" to cool the climate back off or we are all doomed! Can any of you scientists comprehend that?


Climate Accord Loopholes Could Spell 4.2-Degree Rise in Temperature and End of Coral Reefs by 2100
ScienceDaily (Sep. 29, 2010) %u2014 A global temperature increase of up to 4.2 C and the end of coral reefs could become reality by 2100 if national targets are not revised in the Copenhagen Accord, the international pledge which was agreed at last year's Copenhagen's COP15 climate change conference.
Just ahead of the next United Nations Climate Change Conference, which starts on 4 October in Tianjin, China, a new report published Sept. 29 in IOP Publishing's Environmental Research Letters describes how, due to lack of global action to date, only a small chance remains for keeping the global temperature increase down to 2 C as set as a target in the Accord.

Looking at individual countries' agreed targets for emission levels, the report shows that many developed countries such as the USA and the European Union have set their aims very low, aiming at reaching emission levels just a few percent lower than 1990 levels by 2020. Only Japan and Norway are aiming to drastically reduce their emission to 25% and 30 to 40% below 1990 levels respectively.

Presenting their results in Environmental Research Letters, a group of international researchers from seven European research centres, has also found that even if nations would agree to a 50% reduction of emission levels by 2050 -- a target that strong international agreements would greatly facilitate -- there would still only be a less than 50% chance to keep global warming below 2 C.

Rising global temperature levels would not be the only consequence of failing to raise the ambition level of future global emission reductions. Increasing ocean acidification, a direct result of growing atmospheric CO2 levels, could lead to a rapid decline of coral reefs and the marine ecosystem in the 21st century.

As the researchers write, urgent action is necessary, "It is clear from this analysis that higher ambitions for 2020 are necessary to keep the options for 2 C and 1.5 C open without relying on potentially infeasible reduction rates after 2020.

"In addition, the absence of a mid-century emission goal -- towards which Parties as a whole can work and which serve as a yardstick of whether interim reductions by 2020 and 2030 are on the right track -- is a critical deficit in the overall ambition level of the Copenhagen Accord."

Professor Dan Kammen, Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Research Letters said, "The researchers provide an important lens on the ecological impacts and both social and ecological costs of inaction on climate protection."

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
358. cyclonebuster
6:20 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
So now we have linkage to heart attacks,asthma,lung cancer and now diabetes when is it going to end?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
357. cyclonebuster
6:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Strong Link Between Diabetes and Air Pollution Found in National U.S. Study
ScienceDaily (Sep. 30, 2010) %u2014 A national epidemiologic study finds a strong, consistent correlation between adult diabetes and particulate air pollution that persists after adjustment for other risk factors like obesity and ethnicity, report researchers from Children's Hospital Boston. The relationship was seen even at exposure levels below the current EPA safety limit.
The report, published in the October issue of Diabetes Care, is among the first large-scale population-based studies to link diabetes prevalence with air pollution. It is consistent with prior laboratory studies finding an increase in insulin resistance, a precursor to diabetes, in obese mice exposed to particulates, and an increase in markers of inflammation (which may contribute to insulin resistance) in both the mice and obese diabetic patients after particulate exposure.

Like the laboratory studies, the current study focused on fine particulates of 0.1-2.5 nanometers in size (known as PM2.5), a main component of haze, smoke and motor vehicle exhaust. The investigators, led by John Pearson and John Brownstein, PhD, of the Children's Hospital Informatics Program, obtained county-by-county data on PM2.5 pollution from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), covering every county in the contiguous United States for 2004 and 2005.

They then combined the EPA data with data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the U.S. Census to ascertain the prevalence of adult diabetes and to adjust for known diabetes risk factors, including obesity, exercise, geographic latitude, ethnicity and population density (a measure of urbanization).

"We wanted to do everything possible to reduce confounding and ensure the validity of our findings," says Pearson, the study's first author.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
356. Patrap
5:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
A spade is a spade cuz he made Hiz or Herself one.

Dats how we on WU roll.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
354. idontknowforsure
4:32 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting martinitony:


Listen, if I could , without getting thrown off the board, I'd tell everybody that you are a liar, that I have never said there is no global warming, not that the truth would make any difference to a blowhard like you. All I've ever pointed out was that there are reasonable challenges to the "science" and that maroons, like you, should consider those reasons before spouting off how certain you are.


Wow.
Member Since: January 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
353. martinitony
4:31 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
martinitony, I've never been certain about the magnititude of warming or ice melt. However you have continuously been certain that anthropogenic global warming is fruadulent. All you've ever done is deny, deny, deny.


Listen, if I could , without getting thrown off the board, I'd tell everybody that you are a liar, that I have never said there is no global warming, not that the truth would make any difference to a blowhard like you. All I've ever pointed out was that there are reasonable challenges to the "science" and that maroons, like you, should consider those reasons before spouting off how certain you are.
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 970
351. martinitony
4:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
Better Late Than Never

I know that Florida, Simon, Michael and the rest of the wackos will disagree with the Royal Society, but hey, that's OK, you're allowed to be skeptical.
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 970
350. crucilandia
3:20 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
340

"The global warming potential of SF6 is 23,900, making it the most potent greenhouse gas the IPCC has evaluated"


the concentration of SF6 is so low that it makes no difference in the energy budget
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
349. crucilandia
3:17 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
343

illogical.

the opposite should happen then in the spring when ice starts to melt.

nevertheless, the red line is above the green.



Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
348. cyclonebuster
5:14 AM GMT on September 30, 2010
What kind of horse ______ (fill in the blank) is this?


000
WTNT41 KNHC 292055
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

CORRECTED INITIAL STATUS

SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...DISSIPATED NEAR
12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
347. cyclonebuster
2:53 AM GMT on September 30, 2010
img src="">
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
346. cyclonebuster
2:38 AM GMT on September 30, 2010
SF6 interupts the arc in fast acting circuit breakers and prevents the copper contacts from melting.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
345. cyclonebuster
2:19 AM GMT on September 30, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


No, not likely for tens of thousands of years, based on projections of the Earth's orbit (which is what caused past ice ages, although denialists disagree, as they do with all of the other aspects of the science). Of course, will human civilization still be around by then (if so, a much easier way to prevent cooling is to release HFCs or sulfur hexafluoride, which are thousands of time more potent; although they are unnatural, they are non-toxic).

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

HFCs are man-made chemicals, many of which have been developed as alternatives to ozone-depleting substances (ODS) for industrial, commercial, and consumer products. The global warming potentials of HFCs range from 140 (HFC-152a) to 11,700 (HFC-23). The atmospheric lifetime for HFCs varies from just over a year for HFC-152a to 260 years for HFC-23. Most of the commercially used HFCs have atmospheric lifetimes less than 15 years; e.g., HFC-134a, which is used in automobile air conditioning and refrigeration, has an atmospheric life of 14 years.

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6)

The global warming potential of SF6 is 23,900, making it the most potent greenhouse gas the IPCC has evaluated. SF6 is a colorless, odorless, nontoxic, nonflammable gas with excellent dielectric properties. SF6 is used for insulation and current interruption in electric power transmission and distribution equipment, in the magnesium industry to protext molten magnesium from oxidation and potentially violent burning, in semiconductor manufacturing to create circuitry patterns on silicon wafers, and as a tracer gas for leak detection.

Like the other high GWP gases, there are very few sinks for SF6, so all man-made sources contribute directly to its accumulation in the atmosphere. Measurements of SF6 show that its global average concentration has increased by about 7% per year during the 1980s and 1990s, from less 1 ppt in 1980 to almost 4 ppt in the late 1990%u2019s (IPCC, 2001).


SF6 transmission breaker used to switch out highlines!

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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