Warm Cold Warm Cold

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:24 PM GMT on January 16, 2010

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Warm Cold Warm Cold

You may remember that early last winter it was cold in the eastern half of the United States. There was a lot of press about what the cold weather implied about global warming. I wrote a series of blogs last year that are:


Cold in a Warm World
Cold in the East
Last Year and This Year
Last Year and This Year – and the Next Big Story?


I have started teaching again. One of things we do in the beginning of the class we talk about what people already know about global warming. Two of the students raised the issue of “what’s in name?” That is, if it is called “global warming,” then people are confused when it is not, always, uniformly warmer all the time. (Might remember this discussion as well.)

As I stand in front of these students prattling on, I am always thinking of ways to explore, challenge, and expose ideas. Early on, we talk about the role of greenhouse gases in the natural climate of the Earth. We have known since, at least, 1800 that water vapor and carbon dioxide are greenhouse gases that make the Earth “warm.” That is, if you take away these gases which act like blankets and hold the Sun’s energy near the surface of the Earth for a while, then the Earth would be MUCH colder – say, about zero degrees Fahrenheit. Restating this, without the atmosphere the surface of the Earth would be cold. (Spencer Weart’s great history) Water is about two thirds of the greenhouse warming.

One could take from this fact, and it is not often I use the word “fact,” – one could take from this fact, that there is a strong physical reason that works to take the Earth towards this “equilibrium” temperature. Think of it this way, suppose you have a pot of boiling fresh organic chicken broth on the stove. Once you get the pot boiling, if you want to keep it boiling then you have to keep adding a little heat to the bottom of the pot. If you turn off the heat, then the pot stops boiling. This loss of energy which works to stop the boiling is always occurring, and you are always adding energy through the burner to counter this loss. For the Earth, the Sun is the burner, the source of energy, and the Earth is always cooling to get rid of this energy. It’s a little like a spring trying to pull the Earth’s temperature to, on the average, about zero degrees Fahrenheit. (A question for the reader: what is the impact of putting a top on the pot?)


If you were to turn off the Sun, then the Earth would get cold fast. That is what happens when winter comes to the poles. In the north, throughout October and November, the North Pole starts to cool. The Earth emits radiation to space. Since the heating from the Sun is totally absent at this time, it can get far colder than that equilibrium temperature of zero degrees Fahrenheit. The atmosphere and the oceans continue to transport heat to the north, but they can’t keep up. This process of cooling at the poles in the winter is a fact of the planet that will continue even as greenhouse gases build up.

This is where weather comes into play. We have this cold air up towards the North Pole. The atmosphere and the ocean have many different types of - I will call them features - features that have characteristic types of motion associated with them. An example of such a feature is a hurricane, which has closed circulation around an eye. The hurricane then moves around, but pretty much no matter how it bounces around for a week or two, after a while the hurricane heads out to the north. Really they head off to the pole, and north or south depends on which hemisphere. What the hurricane does is transport heat from the tropics to the pole, and that is what the atmosphere and oceans do all the time. They are trying to reduce the contrast between warm and cold.

The hurricane is an example of a dynamical feature. There are many more dynamical features and many of them behave like waves. A hurricane behaves more like a spinning top; it’s a vortex. The atmosphere is full of waves, and professors like me torment students of meteorology with mathematical descriptions of these waves. There are many ways that waves come into being, but one way is because of air flowing over mountain ranges. You can imagine, more intuitively, a stream of water flowing over a rock. I have tried to convey this idea of a wave in the figure below.





Figure 1: A schematic picture that represents a wave in temperature. There are hot and cold parts of the wave. Do other climate bloggers draw such compelling figures?


What I have drawn with the dashed line is a “small” wave, perhaps a wave that would form in October. Then I draw, with the solid line, a bigger wave, perhaps a wave of December or January. These waves are always growing and decaying, sometimes moving a little bit to the east and the west. If we label the graph so that the bottom is the south, the top is the north, the left hand side is west and the right hand side is east, then we can imagine North America siting under this wave. If the left hand side is the Pacific Ocean and the right hand side is the Atlantic Ocean, then it sets up the story. If the wave grows in the west, the warm air pushes up to the north towards the pole, and the cold air is displaced south into the United States. This is not some random, made up thing, because 1) there are the Rocky Mountains that help make the wave, 2) the way the Earth rotates makes the air flow from west to east, 3) northern part of North America, we call it Canada here in the South, gets cold because the Sun is down, and 4) the Pacific Ocean starts to look warm as the continent starts to get cold.

If I hear people talking about how cold it is in the east of the U.S., I ask them to, using Wunderground.com of course, to look at what is going on in California and Alaska. If it is cold in the East, then usually it is warm in the West. And if this wave gets big enough, then it pushes up towards to pole, and it looks warm in the north, and the air that is displaced to the South, off the pole, looks cold. And to weak-kneed academics from Florida State University, it might look VERY cold. (What’s going on at Florida State? Must be all of that money that goes to cushy climate scientists.)

Even if there is a lot of carbon dioxide it still gets cold when the Sun goes down at the poles, and that cold air can get pushed down away from the pole, and there is still winter. In fact, if that push of air towards the pole is especially vigorous, then the cold air can get pushed to new places, and we have a record cold. If you are going to play the “record game,” look for new highs that might be paired with the new lows. (Jerry Meehl and colleagues did this recently, many, many more new highs. They concluded that it’s getting warmer.)

OK …. Let’s look at last December. It’s from the usual place the National Climatic Data Center.




Figure 2: Observations of temperature in December of 2009. The temperatures are represented as a difference (anomaly) from a 30 year average.

I recall Boulder, Colorado being really cold in December, as well as a blizzard in Baltimore. The map shows two cold centers over North America and Siberia. It’s pretty warm in Greenland and Alaska, and you can study the map more. Here is a link to the excellent discussion at the National Climatic Data Center. In the northern hemisphere this map shows a distinctive wave pattern. (There are good reasons that these waves appear as 1, 2, or 3 , but I will make you take dynamics on your own.)

I deliberately did this without referring to the Arctic Oscillation. I was driving around this afternoon thinking about that. If the pole has spent the last few years with its cold phase at the pole, and that cold phase was, by historical standards, not so cold, does that mean something? Just thinking on the way to Sprayberry's.

I posed the question at the end of a recent blog about what a record December blizzard in Baltimore might or might not say about climate change. Since then there have been record snow storms all over the northern hemisphere. At a very real level, a set of storms in one winter says NOTHING about global warming. Nothing. It surely does not say that global warming is abated, or of no concern. In fact, as a couple of comments pointed out, if the atmosphere is warmer, and the air is moister, if it is cold enough to snow, then there is a lot of snow. Others say that cold is cold.

There is still cold weather. Fact is, when the entire surface of the globe is considered, December 2009 was a warm month, in a warm year, of the warmest decade we have measured. (see this write up) Prepare in the next week for a bunch of storms to hit California. (Of course, that’s just a model prediction.) I wonder how many people will attribute those storms to El Nino, based on the science, but at the same time dismiss the far more certain science of global warming. I’ll be at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in Atlanta. Our group has eight talks, so there is student stress and faculty worry. More and more climate at the meeting as we start to think about a National Climate Service.




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151. pressF1
4:14 PM GMT on February 10, 2010
Ricky, this monthly temperature anomaly graphic from the National Climatic Data Center -- is there any way this can be displayed, viewed, looking "down" from above the pole? Instead of this projection on the rectangular map? It just seems to me that what's "really" happening is that these air masses are swirling around the poles. In the tropics, I see why the sideways view is useful. But when it's cold in Siberia and hot over the Northeast US, for example, I'd be interested in watching that pattern rotate around the pole, if it does. I'm imagining a yin and yang looking sort of thing.

Such a small request ... they say that there is an axiom about the Internet, that any bizarre practice you may imagine has a website devoted to it. Surely there should be a website devoted to looking at climate anomalies from the viewpoint of above the pole. Pole dancing for climate nerds ... how could this not exist, in such a world as ours?
150. cyclonebuster
5:15 AM GMT on January 22, 2010
Why was Novembers global ocean temp.data skipped?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
149. Stanb999
8:51 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:
No wonder why the freaking ice is melting!


I guess it really depends... Does ice melt faster at -50 or -48 ?

Please check out what I posted above. I'm really interested to see what it says for different areas of the country.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
148. Stanb999
8:48 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Cyclone,

Follow your link...Click on the link for the NCDC. It's in blue in the first paragraph. Go to Map search. Zoom in to your area.(Not just yours in particular. But you being a weather guy you will know the other stations in your local area.) It will show you how few they use. For instance in my region they only use the ones from 2 sources one being the airport, the other is the TV station. When if you go to the local NOAA page (BMG for me) you can get about 25 recording stations. some go back 100 years.


Just something to check for yourself.

So is the data cherry picked? Seems likely at least in my area.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
147. cyclonebuster
8:42 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
No wonder why the freaking ice is melting!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
146. cyclonebuster
8:41 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
NOAA: Global Ocean Surface Temperature Warmest on Record for June
July 17, 2009

The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for June, breaking the previous high mark set in 2005, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Additionally, the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for June was second-warmest on record. The global records began in 1880.

Global Climate Statistics
•The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2009 was the second warmest on record, behind 2005, 1.12 degrees F (0.62 degree C) above the 20th century average of 59.9 degrees F (15.5 degrees C).
•Separately, the global ocean surface temperature for June 2009 was the warmest on record, 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C).
•Each hemisphere broke its June record for warmest ocean surface temperature. In the Northern Hemisphere, the warm anomaly of 1.17 degrees F (0.65 degree C) surpassed the previous record of 1.12 degrees F (0.62 degree C), set in 2005. The Southern Hemisphere’s increase of 0.99 degree F (0.55 degree C) exceeded the old record of 0.92 degree F (0.51 degree C), set in 1998.
•The global land surface temperature for June 2009 was 1.26 degrees F (0.70 degree C) above the 20th century average of 55.9 degrees F (13.3 degrees C), and ranked as the sixth-warmest June on record.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
145. cyclonebuster
8:39 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
NOAA: Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July
August 14, 2009

The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880.

Global Climate Statistics
•The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the fifth warmest on record, at 1.03 degrees F (0.57 degree C) above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C).
•The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record, 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C). This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The July ocean surface temperature departure of 1.06 degrees F from the long-term average equals last month’s value, which was also a record.
•The global land surface temperature for July 2009 was 0.92 degree F (0.51 degree C) above the 20th century average of 57.8 degrees F (14.3 degree C), and tied with 2003 as the ninth-warmest July on record.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
144. cyclonebuster
8:38 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
NOAA: Warmest Global Sea-Surface Temperatures for August and Summer
September 16, 2009




Global surface temperature anomalies for the month of August 2009. Temperature is compared to the average global temperature from 1961-1990.

Visualization of world’s land and ocean surface temperature.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record averaged for any June-August (Northern Hemisphere summer/Southern Hemisphere winter) season according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The preliminary analysis is based on records dating back to 1880.

NCDC scientists also reported that the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for August was second warmest on record, behind 1998. For the June-August 2009 season, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was third warmest on record.


Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
143. cyclonebuster
8:37 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
NOAA: Global Surface Temperature Was Second Warmest for September
October 15, 2009




Global surface temperature anomalies (degrees F) for the month of September 2009.

Visualization of Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.

NCDC scientists also reported that the average land surface temperature for September was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. Additionally, the global ocean surface temperature was tied for the fifth warmest on record for September.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
142. cyclonebuster
8:35 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Why was Novembers data skipped?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
141. cyclonebuster
8:25 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Here is Decembers but where is Novembers global ocean temps it seems they forgot it?


NOAA: December Global Ocean Temperature Second Warmest on Record
For the year, 2009 Annual Temperature Tied for Fifth-Warmest
January 21, 2010

The global ocean surface temperature was the second warmest on record for December, according to scientists at NOAAs National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly NCDC analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides. Scientists also reported the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the eighth warmest on record for December.

For 2009, global temperatures tied with 2006 as the fifth-warmest on record. Also, the earths land surface for 2009 was seventh-warmest (tied with 2003) and the ocean surface was fourth-warmest (tied with 2002 and 2004.)

Highlights for December 2009
The global ocean temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 1997. The temperature anomaly was 0.97 degree F above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees F.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the eighth warmest on record, at 0.88 degree F above the 20th century average of 54.0 degrees F.
The global land surface temperature was 0.63 degree F above the 20th century average of 38.7 degrees F - the coolest December anomaly since 2002.


Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
140. mnborn
4:37 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
the way I see it, it's not a question of what we can do to stop global warming. It comes down to where the warming is coming from. If from solar flares (which is where the data is pointing now), then nothing we do with greenhouse gases is going to make any significant difference!
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
139. Stanb999
1:38 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


You don't understand a tetonic plate rupturing in one part of the world can cause another one to rupture elsewhere do you?


That's a theory... Not a widely held one in scientific circles. The USGS just doesn't go along with the crackling earth idea.

It works sometimes but not others. Contrary to popular AGW... Most of the sciences aren't settled.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
138. cyclonebuster
1:30 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Stanb999:
Danny Glover's Haiti Earthquake Theory...

When was Haiti covered with glacier? When was any glacial ice even near Haiti? I was under the impression that it was in the gulf of Mexico. Kinda you know. Warm and Tropical.

It's already been explained to you that ocean water is incidental to tectonic effects.


You don't understand a tetonic plate rupturing in one part of the world can cause another one to rupture elsewhere do you?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
137. Stanb999
1:17 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Danny Glover's Haiti Earthquake Theory...

When was Haiti covered with glacier? When was any glacial ice even near Haiti? I was under the impression that it was in the gulf of Mexico. Kinda you know. Warm and Tropical.

It's already been explained to you that ocean water is incidental to tectonic effects.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
136. cyclonebuster
1:09 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
State of Stress and Intraplate Earthquakes
According to the theory of Plate Tectonics, plate-plate interaction results in earthquakes near plate boundaries. However, large earthquakes are found in intraplate environment like eastern Canada (up to M7) and northern Europe (up to M5) which are far away from present-day plate boundaries. An important intraplate earthquake was the magnitude 8 New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in mid-continental USA in the year 1811.

Glacial loads provide more than 30 MPa of vertical stress in northern Canada and more than 20 MPa in northern Europe during glacial maximum. This vertical stress is supported by the mantle and the flexure of the lithosphere. Since the mantle and the lithosphere continuously respond to the changing ice and water loads, the state of stress at any location continuously changes in time. The changes in the orientation of the state of stress is recorded in the postglacial faults in southeastern Canada.[17] When the postglacial faults formed at the end of deglaciation 9000 year ago, the horizontal principal stress orientation was almost perpendicular to the former ice margin, but today the orientation is in the northeast-southwest, along the direction of spreading at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This shows that the stress due to postglacial rebound had played an important role at deglacial time, but has gradually relaxed so that tectonic stress has become more dominant today.

According to the Mohr-Coulomb Theory of rock failure, large glacial loads generally suppress earthquakes, but rapid deglaciation promotes earthquakes. According to Wu & Hasagawa, the rebound stress that is available to trigger earthquakes today is of the order of 1 MPa.[18] This stress level is not large enough to rupture intact rocks but is large enough to reactivate pre-existing faults that are close to failure. Thus, both postglacial rebound and past tectonics play important roles in today's intraplate earthquakes in eastern Canada and southeast USA. Generally postglacial rebound stress could have triggered the intraplate earthquakes in eastern Canada and may have played some role in triggering earthquakes in eastern USA including the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811.[5] The situation in northern Europe today is complicated by the active tectonic activities nearby and by coastal loading and weakening.


Link
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135. cyclonebuster
1:00 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Post-glacial rebound
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

A model of present-day surface elevation change due to post-glacial rebound. Red areas are rising due to the removal of the ice sheets. Blue areas are falling due to the re-filling of the ocean basins when the ice sheets melted and because of the collapse of the glacial forebulge.Post-glacial rebound (sometimes called continental rebound, isostatic rebound, isostatic adjustment or post-ice-age isostatic recovery) is the rise of land masses that were depressed by the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period, through a process known as isostasy. It affects northern Europe (especially Scotland, Fennoscandia and northern Denmark), Siberia, Canada, and the Great Lakes of Canada and the United States.Overview

Changes in the elevation of Lake Superior due to glaciation and post-glacial reboundDuring the last glacial period, much of northern Europe, Asia, North America, Greenland and Antarctica were covered by ice sheets. The ice was as thick as three kilometres during the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago. The enormous weight of this ice caused the surface of the Earth's crust to deform and warp downward, forcing the fluid mantle material to flow away from the loaded region. At the end of the ice age when the glaciers retreated, the removal of the weight from the depressed land led to slow (and still ongoing) uplift or rebound of the land and the return flow of mantle material back under the deglaciated area. Due to the extreme viscosity of the mantle, it will take many thousands of years for the land to reach an equilibrium level.

Studies have shown that the uplift has taken place in two distinct stages. The initial uplift following deglaciation was rapid (called "elastic"), and took place as the ice was being unloaded. After this "elastic" phase, uplift proceeded by "slow viscous flow" so the rate decreased exponentially after that. Today, typical uplift rates are of the order of 1 cm/year or less. In northern Europe, this is clearly shown by the GPS data obtained by the BIFROST GPS network.[1] Studies suggest that rebound will continue for about at least another 10,000 years. The total uplift from the end of deglaciation depends on the local ice load and could be several hundred metres near the centre of rebound.



Link
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134. MissNadia
12:42 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Stanb999:


First lets agree on the topic at hand.

Water is compressible....

Well at least sea water is.

Huh ?????????
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
133. cyclonebuster
12:42 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting idontknowforsure:


Global cooling is responsible for earthquakes. I was taught that in elementary school. Has the cooling core of the Earth changed over the last 50 years? I know it hadn't for the 4 billion years that preceded it.


Geoligists think the Earth was molten rock 4 billion years ago with small amounts of water. So I would think the Earth has cooled very much since then.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
132. idontknowforsure
12:36 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:
Suddenly Danny Glover doesn't seem so stupid does he?


Global cooling is responsible for earthquakes. I was taught that in elementary school. Has the cooling core of the Earth changed over the last 50 years? I know it hadn't for the 4 billion years that preceded it.
Member Since: January 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
131. cyclonebuster
12:35 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
So you are saying "EXTRA WEIGHT" will not cause more stress upon tetonic plates? I am sure Danny Glover would think otherwise!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
130. Stanb999
12:10 PM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


One plate is composed of different material than the one next to it correct? This means one plate may fracture before the other correct?




Could be that both plates are made of different materials. I'd Have to ask a geologist. I think it's more like this...Areas of the planet being covered with ocean or not has nothing to do with the "weight" of the ocean. See it's the rock floating on the magma below that. Sea bottom stone is denser than continental stone so it displaces the continental stone and sinks. in doing so it makes a hole. Rain filled in the hole. You get an ocean with a big hole and a lot of rain. The water is incidental to the forces in play. It would all happen without water.



Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
129. cyclonebuster
3:19 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Suddenly Danny Glover doesn't seem so stupid does he?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
128. cyclonebuster
3:08 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Stanb999:


First lets agree on the topic at hand.

Water is compressible.... Well at least sea water is.
When the average is taken it is a tiny addition in pressure. Do we agree? This average doesn't press on any part or plate more than the one next to it?

Do we agree to the facts I have laid out?


One plate is composed of different material than the one next to it correct? This means one plate may fracture before the other correct?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
127. Stanb999
2:59 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster:


idontknowforsure,

I do know for sure that the pressure difference is small for a 7 inch difference in head pressure. However, if you measure the area it covers the new weight will be unbearable on tetonic plates and some will slip as that new force is also applied to an incompressable fluid below it.What becomes more scary is we may see a rise of three feet by the end of this century thus exacerbating this effect. So perhaps you can explain how the Earths tetonic plates can resist this incompressable fluids new weight above it pressing down and not slip or crack somewhere? Ever hear of the straw that broke the camels back?

Now take the rebound forces also being removed from the tetonic plates as glaciers and land bound ice melts.This will also cause tetonic plates to slip.



First lets agree on the topic at hand.

Water is compressible.... Well at least sea water is.
When the average is taken it is a tiny addition in pressure. Do we agree? This average doesn't press on any part or plate more than the one next to it?

Do we agree to the facts I have laid out?
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
126. cyclonebuster
2:47 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting idontknowforsure:
On the Danny Glover, eartquakes and Cyclonebuster:
Mr. Buster, you and Danny Glover seem a little ignorant, silly or stupid. Maybe all three. I looked up the change in ocean depth over the last 100 years. It is about 180mm=about 7 inches.
Average ocean depth is about 12,400 feet. So the change over 100 years is about .0047%. If you weigh about 180 lbs, that would be like adding about .13 ounces or a little over 3 grams (the weight of a penny) to your hair, probably about as much weight as your hairspray adds. My sense is the Earth can handle it.

On top of that, there really is no change to the entire Earth, just spreading of the weight from ice intensive areas to the oceans. Logic would suggest that if you really believe the ice is melting from Greenland, glaciers and Antarctica, that's where the greatest effect would be felt as pressure was reduced in high mountains, Greenland and Antarctica. So, what's that got to do with Haiti?


idontknowforsure,

I do know for sure that the pressure difference is small for a 7 inch difference in head pressure. However, if you measure the area it covers the new weight will be unbearable on tetonic plates and some will slip as that new force is also applied to an incompressable fluid below it.What becomes more scary is we may see a rise of three feet by the end of this century thus exacerbating this effect. So perhaps you can explain how the Earths tetonic plates can resist this incompressable fluids new weight above it pressing down and not slip or crack somewhere? Ever hear of the straw that broke the camels back?

Now take the rebound forces also being removed from the tetonic plates as glaciers and land bound ice melts.This will also cause tetonic plates to slip.

Oh I forgot water is almost an incompressable fluid.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
125. Stanb999
2:09 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Marines dont rust,..LOL

We slowly Oxidize.


I

But I digress.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
5, 7 and three year old?! Talking Chickens too! LOL. yea hopefully they do an IP check.



Yep, 7,5 and your wrong but the little guy is 2....

He has more sense than most of us. He knows what is good. Swedish fish (fish), Fruit juice of some choice (drink), Snack(SSSSNAKK) Various crackers and dried fruits...

At least the little guy can be happy. Can we all really be that happy. With such simple things?




If cap and trade comes you better be. They are talking 2 tons a person..... So if your a family of four I hope you don't need more than 6 months of electric and 50 gallons of fuel. If you need AC you better build a house with high ceilings, and get used to sleeping in your sweat. ;-)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
124. Stanb999
1:48 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting iceagecoming:
UN abandons climate change deadlineBy Fiona Harvey in London and Anna Fifield in Washington

Published: January 20 2010 20:25 | Last updated: January 20 2010 20:25

The timetable to reach a global deal to tackle climate change lay in tatters on Wednesday after the UN waived the first deadline of the process laid out at last month’s fractious Copenhagen summit.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87479ee2-0600-11df-8c97-00144feabdc0.html

No worries, it was all a ponzi scheme anyhow.




The only thing left is the court dates and the orange suits... It's coming.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
123. Stanb999
1:46 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
5, 7 and three year old?! LOL. yea hopefully they do an IP check.



Yeah. they could just follow the link to my web cam. It has the IP's even tho they can change.

I've never felt the need to be hidden. An adult stands up for what they believe in...
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
122. Patrap
1:44 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Marines dont rust,..LOL

We slowly Oxidize.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
120. iceagecoming
1:38 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
UN abandons climate change deadlineBy Fiona Harvey in London and Anna Fifield in Washington

Published: January 20 2010 20:25 | Last updated: January 20 2010 20:25

The timetable to reach a global deal to tackle climate change lay in tatters on Wednesday after the UN waived the first deadline of the process laid out at last month’s fractious Copenhagen summit.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87479ee2-0600-11df-8c97-00144feabdc0.html

No worries, it was all a ponzi scheme anyhow.

Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
119. Stanb999
1:37 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Well,JF..children do have access to a computer somewhere obviously..but the "Gun,knife" reference will have that handle permabanned from the site.

Easily.

Thats a FACT,

RUSH on the wunderground,..LOL

I thought he had a day job?



When you age intellectually you will know the difference. Your currently not unlike my 5 year old.... You don't realize that there is more meaning than the literal to a statement. ;-)

We were all intellectually 5 at one time... It's OK.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
118. Stanb999
1:32 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
I flagged that poster.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


. I flagged that poster.



:-) Yep, my chickens produce what you are.....

It's good in the garden.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
117. Patrap
1:30 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Well,JF..children do have access to a computer somewhere obviously..but the "Gun,knife" reference will have that handle permabanned from the site.

Easily.

Thats a FACT,

RUSH on the wunderground,..LOL

I thought he had a day job?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
116. Stanb999
1:28 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Dr. Rood,

I'm really sorry that these boys dropped the ball for the cause of AGW. I acknowledge that I'm a bit over the top.... But they come to a discussion without proper thought and preparation. I'm sorry if they offend.

I know your a supporter of AGW. We have had a bit of discussion in the past and wish it to continue. Your Knowledge is a resource to me.

Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
114. Stanb999
1:19 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
3 Spinners on the N shore with possible injuries in the NWS report
Quoting Patrap:






Ignore User/Stanb999






HA,HA.HA.HA,HA,HHA....

See when a liberal finds speech they can't tolerate they silence it. If I wrote a book would they burn it? or destroy it?

Just like my 7 year old. See them covering their eyes and ears.

Saying HMMMM, HMMMM, HMMMM I can't hear you.

This is too funny.


Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
113. Patrap
1:12 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
3 Spinners on the N shore with possible injuries in the NWS report
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
112. Stanb999
1:11 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Where do they come from?

LOL,dunno but I know where he's going real soon.

All this chatter from a blogger who cant link one Study,nor complete a English Paragraph.

Try Linking in one study sport,or 1 Image.

We have time....

We'll be here.

LOL



OH NOOOOO!!!

I thought You were leaving... I guess not.


What studies do you wish to learn?

Pro AGW
Realclimate
http://www.aaas.org/news/press_room/climate_change/
http://globalecology.stanford.edu/DGE/CIWDGE/CIWDGE.HTML
http://www.brookings.edu/topics/climate-change.aspx
http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/
Or
Anti AGW
WATTS UP with that
Icecap
Climate Audit
Solar Cycle 24 (Be careful If your as dumb as some you should really stay away.)
http://climatescienceamerica.org/
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/categories/C19

What you need to know? There are dozens of valid opinions on both sides.... What do you want to learn about?

Would you like to learn about the current study of the GISS manipulations and the reason for Ricks post which was inspired by Hanson...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/17/pielke-senior-nasa-giss-inaccurate-press-release-on-the-surfa ce-temperature-trend-data/
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
110. Patrap
12:57 AM GMT on January 21, 2010






Ignore User/Stanb999



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
109. Stanb999
12:53 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
HA,HA,HA,HA

The religious have left the church. Yep, facts burn the uninformed. It's gonna hurt in a few years when it's proven that they were as dumb as the box of rocks we all thought they were. :-)


I wonder what the main blogs will be.... AGW is on the way out. Get on the new train. It's plastics and there environmental damage.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
108. Patrap
12:44 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.




Feel free to put it there JF..

I inserted the Dupage Severe Page in the Main Blog,..Lotsa Tornadoes on the N Shore.







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
105. Stanb999
12:38 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yes the Charity motivated Oil companies are so much more disinterested than impartial Government studies.


How much did OIL companies give to anti-global warming support?


How much did governments give to take control from the people?

I know Mann got 500 thousand just a few months back... How much money supports the IPPC? A billion or 2.... Maybe a few 50 billion or so for AGW. Look into the money if your deep in your faith. It's not for the faint of heart. You may be swayed.

Careful in your looking I enjoy debating on here. ;-)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
104. Patrap
12:33 AM GMT on January 21, 2010



Ignore User/Stanb999





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
103. Stanb999
12:32 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
California storm forces more evacuations
By The Associated Press
January 20, 2010, 5:21PM


A third powerful Pacific storm pounded California with heavy rain and snow Wednesday, forcing evacuations of hundreds of homes below wildfire-scarred mountains, shutting a major interstate and unleashing lightning strikes on two airliners.

Forecasters warned of powerful wind gusts and rainfall rates as high as 1½ inches an hour on soil already saturated from two days of wild weather that caused urban street flooding in coastal cities, spawned a damaging tornado and toppled trees, killing two people.

Despite stern pleas from authorities and door-to-door calls by police officers and sheriff's deputies, some residents refused to comply with evacuation orders issued for Los Angeles-area foothill communities below the steep San Gabriel Mountains, where 250 square miles of forest burned in a summer wildfire.
california_storm_filling_sandbags.jpgNick Ut/The Associated PressVolunteer Raquel Denton helps fill sandbags Wednesday in Seal Beach, Calif.

Rick and Starr Frazier put their faith in concrete barriers and a 2-foot-high wall of sandbags on the perimeter of their home in La Canada Flintridge.

"Look at our house, we're pretty well fortified here," Starr Frazier said. "If any rain or mud or anything comes down, it'll be blocked by our barricades and we're very well stocked with food and water."

When they told Los Angeles County deputies they weren't leaving, the deputies asked them to fill out forms stating they'd been advised of the danger. They also were warned it might not be possible to rescue them.

While most others in the Fraziers' community appeared to be complying, officials in nearby Los Angeles reported only about 40 percent compliance by residents of 262 homes in that jurisdiction.

Police Chief Charlie Beck sternly urged the rest to go.

"We're not doing this because your carpet is going to get wet; we're doing it because your life is at risk," Beck said during a televised news conference.

Steady rain was expected to continue into the evening, followed by another wave of rain Thursday into Friday.

Two Southwest Airlines aircraft were struck by lightning Wednesday morning after reaching their arrival gates at Burbank's Bob Hope Airport, Federal Aviation Administration spokesman Ian Gregor said.

Two people on one plane reported feeling numb and were taken to a hospital, he said.

By early afternoon, the Grapevine stretch of the state's backbone Interstate 5 was closed due to snow and ice in 4,100-foot-high Tejon Pass north of Los Angeles. Vehicles were to be escorted down from the pass by Highway Patrol officers.

Northern California appeared to be handling the storm relatively well, but an evacuation order was issued for 50 homes as a central coast river rose near low-lying Felton Grove in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

Warnings for hazardous conditions were posted in many other parts of the state, but the concern was extreme in Southern California, where vast areas scorched by wildfires have been denuded of vegetation that would normally capture or slow runoff.

The storms were testing months of preparations in a string of burn-area neighborhoods from northeastern Los Angeles through La Crescenta, Glendale, La Canada Flintridge and Altadena.

County and city officials decided Tuesday to order evacuation of hundreds of homes because flood-control debris basins protecting some areas were already full or had little room left.

A recent U.S. Geological Survey emergency assessment of the post-fire danger noted the history of tragedy in Southern California from so-called debris flows: 30 killed and 483 homes destroyed in a 1934 flow in the Los Angeles-area foothills; 16 killed in 2003 flows to the east in the San Bernardino Mountains.

Glendale police Sgt. Tom Lorenz said the current threat could be as bad as the 1934 disaster.

"Basically, a 20-foot wall of mud came down through this area," he said.

Much of the week's concern focused on Paradise Valley, a neighborhood on the upper reaches of winding Ocean View Boulevard in La Canada Flintridge offering spectacular panoramas of Los Angeles.

Most people there appeared willing to go.

"Hi, how you guys doing, are you getting ready to leave? Good," Deputy R. Lavan said to an elderly woman who opened her door just a crack. She assured them she had a ride and a friend to stay with.

Mike Thomas shoveled several feet of mud from his driveway before leaving.

"The preparations have been pretty well done so I think everything will be OK," he said.

His wife, Magda, drove off before him.

"Don't forget to take your medications," she said. "Good luck, see you later."

Many had evacuated before, including during the big fire, and took it in stride.

Lynn Thompson, a resident for 32 years, had barricaded her front door and windows with plywood and already taken family photos to her daughter's house. But she waited for a load of laundry to dry before departing.

"Sometimes you have to pay big bucks for these views, both emotionally and financially," she said.

Elsewhere in the state, authorities advised of considerable avalanche danger on steep, north-facing slopes of the central Sierra Nevada after as much as 30 inches of snow fell since Sunday. Danger was moderate elsewhere.

In Orange County's Sunset Beach, Nicolette Kimberling, 35, and husband Kenn, 37, helped her elderly grandmother clean up from the tornado that hit her seafront home on Tuesday. Gladys Myers said she was sitting in her bedroom when she heard a roar and her windows exploded.

"Now we've got to weather the rest of these storms," Kenn Kimberling said.

In Arizona, officials warned residents to prepare for up to 3 feet of snow in the north on Thursday and Friday, up to 4 inches of rain in the Phoenix area and 2 inches of rain around Tucson. Travel on Interstates 40 and 17 was slow after the roads were closed overnight.



Yep, typical.....

See the dumb liberals wouldn't let the folks trim and cut back the brush.... Habitat you know.
Well then it burned. Because of excess fuel buildup. No brush/roots to hold back the soil.
Then you get the mud slides.

All of it was caused by stupid liberals.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
101. Patrap
12:29 AM GMT on January 21, 2010
JF..I do believe were completely out our league with this one..


So Im gonna go fry up da Speckled trout and get the Cocktail sauce done fer da shrimps too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.