My take on Neven's Arctic Climate Change Article

By: RTSplayer , 2:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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On Neven's site there is a new post and discussion about an arctic high pressure development over Greenland that has been happening more frequently since 2007. They compared data for 5 year averages and it beats all 5 consecutive year groups on record.

It seems that low pressure systems form on the boundary of this high.

Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog: "Signs of Arctic Climate Change"

He links to another article and quotes it, but I have not yet read the entire link.

Anyway, while it's true you can't blame everything on GW, there seems to be no doubt that it is in fact rapidly changing ridge and trough features, as well as other steering features, and the storms that form on their boundaries.

Now this could be a 5 year "active" period for this pattern, or it could be a major change passing it's "tipping point," so that this becomes the new "normal". It would probably take another 5 to 10 years of data to really establish that.

What this means to my mind is faster melting in Greenland, since High Pressure corresponds to warmer temperatures.

I expect that a full meltdown of Winter Arctic Sea Ice will take at least several decades, but in the mean time, once the Summer Meltdown grows to an ice-free August and September (probably by 10 to 15 years from now,) Greenland will take up roughly half of the slack from the existing forcing and increased forcing from Albedo feedbacks, while the remaining excess heat will go into raising the ocean temperatures and atmospheric temperatures further still. This will continue to shrink the Winter Sea Ice Maximum, but I've noticed the Maximum shrinks at only about half to 3/4 the rate of the Summer minimum, so it will still be around for some time.

Enough for now.

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