Winter Weather Waning

By: PugetSoundPost , 8:14 AM GMT on January 09, 2011

January 9, 10 PM

Our advertised, possibly "historic" snowstorm for later this week, is certainly turning into "history" - as in "outta here!" By no big surprise, really, already it has fallen apart. The "heavy snow" and "many inches" and "most since 1996 in western Washington" has now turned to rain for Wednesday and beyond.

We actually may see some snow beginning Tuesday night and overnight into Wednesday morning---- before it turns to rain sometime early Wednesday morning. The whole thing has been hinging on the track of the low coming ashore off the ocean. Models were pointing to a southern track which would bring us the snow - a pretty moist system overrunning cold air in place that is slowly filtering in from the Fraser River Canyon in British Columbia, but today they did a Big Switch and now are favoring a more northern track (north of us and mainly in southern Canada) for the low, and thus warmer and wetter for us: rain. Future systems later in the week will likely follow the same track, for more rain. So it looks like we will have to settle for the Tuesday night possible snow (I wouldn't even lean too heavily on that at this point either - the assumption is that the in-place air will be and remain cold enough to support just snow overnight, but that could fall apart too, perhaps) and the NWS is giving us the chance for 2-4 inches of snow before the turnover to rain, which would just make a giant sloppy mess for Wednesday.

Today was cooler, but no snow here. So another washout. The high was 39, very little wind, a lot of surprisingly heavy clouds that did little, and .02" rain. Monday should be clearer and colder yet. My son was in Vancouver, B.C. for a few days, driving home tonight. All he saw was snow near the road and in the trees up around Bellingham, but the roads were clear, even though the convergence zone stayed much further north than usual this weekend, bringing some snow to those folks. It sure is tough to put a snowstorm together around here.

January 9, 12:10 AM

We are on the cusp of a weather change, from cloudy, damp, and cool, to colder and possible snow! The snow that was expected perhaps during the day today did not materialize, but that was not too surprising either. The passage of a cold front yesterday created a pretty dark and dank day, with close to a half inch of rain. Cold air filling in behind the front from the north was set to give a hit or miss snow situation for today and Sunday. Depending where the convergence zone set up, areas could get a handful of inches of snow, or none. Often we are in convergence zone preciptation, but today it seemed to linger further north, cutting a swath through Snohomish County. Places up north did get snow today. It may sag south overnight, so there is still a chance of some snow showers over the next few hours and into Sunday morning, but no guarantees. I would not be too surprised to see a little dusting by morning. Consequently, today turned out to be a much better day than we guessed it would be. The high was 45, the low 34, with only .03" rain. Mostly it was a rather sunny day, with broken overcast. The sunniest day in the last few! Currently, just past midnight, it is 35.

Meanwhile, although we may see some snow before this weekend ends; or we may not, all eyes are really turning toward the middle of the upcoming week. By Monday much colder air from the interior of Canada will have filtered in, giving us much cooler temps - highs in the 30's, lows in the teens and 20's. Monday and Tuesday look dry and sunny, but then the picture may take a dramatic turn. A "classic Seattle snow pattern" may be in the offing, and although it is always too soon to know for sure - too soon right up until the first flakes fall - models seem to be moving closer to a consensus that our version of a Big One may be on the way. Comparisons to a 1996 snow are beginning to be made. A decently wet system off the Pacific could overrun the cold air that will continue to move south, creating snow, and perhaps quite a lot. I will write more about this possibility as it nears.

January 9
Sunrise: 7:55 AM --- Sunset: 4:36 PM (PST)

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1. Buckey2745
6:12 PM GMT on January 10, 2011
Hey there! This storm seems to be the closest to a sure bet we've had in a while. It's not going to be much, but it'll probably dump 4" on us!
Member Since: December 28, 2007 Posts: 664 Comments: 200

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Weather has been a lifelong passion for me; while my husband and 4 kids all in college and beyond, one now married, have patiently gone along with me!

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