Strong Winter Storm to affect Middle Atlantic, SE New England

By: Pcroton , 11:29 AM GMT on January 20, 2014

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Well, I really crapped the bed on this one folks....and so did just about everyone else.

How fragile is out storm track in the Middle Atlantic region? Apparently enough to go from a nuisance inch or two... to a full blown winter storm... in about 12 hours of modeling time.

Tuesday looks to now be a major event for the Middle Atlantic States and SE New England.

=============================

This disturbance will lead to coastal cyclogenesis on Tuesday: 6AM 1/20:



=============================

ALL Maps updated 1/21, 6AM:

=============================


Current Advisores: 6AM 1/21



=============================

Euro 0Z 1/21:







CMC 0Z 1/21:






GFS 0Z 1/21










NAM 0Z 1/21









=============================

HPC 4"+ Probabilities: If you are within the 40% contour you will likely see 4" plus. 1/21





HPC 8"+ Probabilities: If you are within the 40% contour you will likely see 8" plus. 1/21





HPC Maximum Storm Potential: 1/21






GFS Snowfall: 0Z 1/21




NAM Snowfall: 0Z 1/21




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455. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:40 AM GMT on January 23, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
454. Jasspjesta
11:40 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Evening P and all - 10F and clear skies here tonight. The arctic dust on the ground here is really a pain in the butt. Driveway recovered once today, after I paid a plow $20 to do it (we have a long, narrow driveway). Luckily my neighbor had his tractor with plow on it working and helped me out the second time (thanks Dan!).

I just read a quick article on the TWC website: "50-Foot Monster Waves Crash Into Hawaii's Beaches" A huge low pressure system approaching the islands is responsible for this impressive surf. I gotta think that is going to play into our weather down the road somehow. Is that too far north to kick start the STJ?
Member Since: December 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
453. Pcroton
11:09 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
That is always a very tough call.

Even if there isn't one it looks at this time given temperatures that there will be a significant snow pack through the region and will cause it's own problems.

We know one thing about the Super Bowl weather: It will be the coldest Super Bowl ever played.

However the storm scenario is of course there. We have a potential big one on the 30-31st. That would head into the maritimes and produce good blocking for the Feb 2 scenario.

Take these renderings loosely. The idea is that energy is to be had....and it looks like..we're in for it.












Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
452. sweeper
10:38 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Hearing more and more about a chance of a coastal snow storm....Super Bowl weekend.
Sounds like a day or so before...rather than during.....but we r still 10 days away...so very iffy still, I would imagine.

With temps likely below freezing.....NY and the NFL....didn't luck out. They said they might even schedule the game a day later or earlier...if a big storm seems very likely.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
451. Pcroton
9:58 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Cold tonight. NAM and GFS:







Some Bufkits:











Oh, and, SNOW Bufkits for Sat and Monday:





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
450. Pcroton
9:39 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Evening LT.

It's a questionmark but I think it's chances lie in crossing the mountains and retaining moisture doing so. I want to lean against it doing much on Thursday.

GFS:



NAM:



Saturday on the other hand is more of a squall situation. Here's how the NAM brings it in from west to east:





And here's the NAM snowfall on it: Keep in mind this is 84hr totals, so West Virginia, western NY, and PA...there's Thursday's clipper and other snow showers involved in your total, that's not purely Saturday. For NYC, CT, NJ, Eastern PA - it is likely all just Saturday.





Here's the lesser GFS:







Monday we're just too far away given where the disturbance is coming from. I don't know if there's much to discuss until late Friday/early Saturday on it other than it's a repeat of the problems we had in seeing this past storm coming.



Speaking of Snowfall here's the swath of snow that we had:



Ignore the bullseye anomaly west of DC. Data error for sure.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
449. air360
9:30 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 446. Pcroton:


YThe Jan 30-31 time frame continues to be very interesting for a large coastal storm involving both jet streams. This has been modeled going back a week now and it's not really gone anywhere. The pattern may support that solution of a blockbuster.


The big one for me will be when a storm forms down in the Gulf or off the FL or Georgia cost and rides up the whole seaboard...that is the one I am banking on for major eastern NC snow...December 24, 1989 anyone? lol.
*fingers crossed*
Member Since: October 13, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 275
448. originalLT
9:19 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Radar does look a bit more active now concerning the Mid-West clipper. Maybe we'll get some good"snow showers" out of this one.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
447. originalLT
9:11 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
I'd love a January 31storm(the 30th I have to pick up a friend at JFK coming in from the Orient)--but that's way out there. Let's see what happens with the Monday storm first.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
446. Pcroton
8:49 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 445. air360:
I saw a few people saying they think the GFS is not seeing the next system....that the GFS shows it staying far north but they think it will maybe drop more south before going east (similar to what we just had).


Yup we are in the same boat we just went through.

The disturbance responsible is up in the Yukon territories - well outside our data sounding networks - so the GFS is behaving exactly how it did with our previous storm - which at this same time frame - was a disturbance well up in to Yukon and out of our observational range.

Unfortuntantely, as with the previous storm, we won't get a hint on the next storm until say later Friday or early Saturday morning - That would put us in the same situation we just went through where 0Z Sunday evening (monday morning) guidance hinted moderate, and then 12Z monday morning guidance hinted at spectacular.

Saturday also looks like we could get some squally weather, the NAM likes the idea, and likes up to 2" through the region. This Thursday look more muted.


The Jan 30-31 time frame continues to be very interesting for a large coastal storm involving both jet streams. This has been modeled going back a week now and it's not really gone anywhere. The pattern may support that solution of a blockbuster.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
445. air360
8:32 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
I saw a few people saying they think the GFS is not seeing the next system....that the GFS shows it staying far north but they think it will maybe drop more south before going east (similar to what we just had).
Member Since: October 13, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 275
444. NYBizBee
8:23 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 443. Pcroton:
So it sounds like we may be doing this again on Monday if you can believe it.

Steve seems to think so. This mornings GFS run shows the will. I think we'll just sit tight for now and maybe late tonight or very early tomorrow morning I'll put together a fresh blog entry for discussion.



Yea sure sounds like it, but early on models do trend with a slight mix on coast, we will see!
Member Since: February 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
443. Pcroton
8:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
So it sounds like we may be doing this again on Monday if you can believe it.

Steve seems to think so. This mornings GFS run shows the will. I think we'll just sit tight for now and maybe late tonight or very early tomorrow morning I'll put together a fresh blog entry for discussion.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
442. Pcroton
8:13 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Thanks Zotty. Those are good totals then.


Some more totals...from the NY region. People did WELL.

LINK to NY Public Information Statement



CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
GREENWICH 10.5 1110 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
STAMFORD 10.3 1153 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NEW CANAAN 10.3 1100 PM 1/21 CT DOT
WESTON 10.2 145 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER


NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
LITTLE FERRY 13.4 1000 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
EAST RUTHERFORD 13.0 1000 PM 1/21 NJ DOT
TENAFLY 12.0 1015 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
FORT LEE 11.2 1000 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER


...UNION COUNTY...
ELIZABETH 12.2 1200 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLARK 12.0 1000 PM 1/21 NJ DOT
ROSELLE PARK 12.0 900 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
CRANFORD 11.6 1030 PM 1/21 PUBLIC



NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
THROGS NECK 12.0 1045 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BRONX 11.7 800 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
SPUYTEN DUYVIL 10.6 121 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER


...KINGS COUNTY...
MARINE PARK 10.5 1000 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MIDWOOD 10.5 900 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 10.0 930 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST BRIGHTON 8.5 121 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
OCEANSIDE 13.0 800 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
MASSAPEQUA 12.1 706 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
PORT WASHINGTON 11.5 630 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
MASSAPEQUA PARK 11.5 500 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 11.5 700 AM 1/22 CENTRAL PARK ZOO
NEW YORK 11.5 950 PM 1/21 UPPER WEST SIDE
RIVERBEND HOUSES 10.8 516 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER


...QUEENS COUNTY...
SOUTH OZONE PARK 13.0 1220 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
MIDDLE VILLAGE 12.5 800 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
CEDAR MANOR 11.9 121 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
GLENDALE 11.1 900 PM 1/21 PUBLIC


...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
NORTH BABYLON 14.5 630 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
SELDEN 14.5 700 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
BLUE POINT 14.0 700 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
CENTEREACH 14.0 745 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST BABYLON 13.5 700 AM 1/22 PUBLIC



...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
BRONXVILLE 12.7 600 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
MAMARONECK 12.5 1050 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
SCARSDALE 12.1 740 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ELMSFORD 10.6 1005 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
EASTCHESTER 10.5 1030 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
YONKERS 10.5 1040 PM 1/21 PUBLIC WORKS




LINK to NY Public Information Statement
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
441. Pcroton
8:09 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
It may pay to keep an eye on this system over the next day or so for interest. Could produce quite the impressive satellite signature as the multiple low-trough system merges into one. It's already trying to develop an eye feature. And yes, it's a real eye, which is defined as sinking air, it's just not a tropical cyclone eye, it just does not have an eyeWALL which features a ring of deep convection. The principle is the same. Sinking air at the center of the storm clears out an eye.











The low finally wound up.

A curious thought...with that heavy band that set up arcing through the upper middle atlantic region, had the storm wound up right away, it may have pulled that band out to sea sooner, and we could have actually had less totals as a result.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
440. zotty
6:17 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Afternoon all...

P- nice work keeping tabs on everything. It was a fun one to watch, with so many surprises. Glad Mother Nature still has a few tricks up her sleeve we haven't quite figured out yet.

White Plains 9", New Rochelle about 11". Real light and fluffy- easy to shovel. Except when it sticks! That's the worst!

I heard a for hire meteorologist on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning (name has been forgotten). He had some interesting comments. They mostly mirrored what Steve DiMartino has been saying- the models are all showing zonal flow in 8-10 days. They showed that 8-10 days ago, and 8-10 days before that. (I saw on the weather channel they were saying the same thing on Saturday.) With the way above normal temperatures in the northern Pacific, that ridge is not likely to break down like the models suggest, and so we are going to be stuck in the huge trough we've been in, and more and more storms and cold outbreaks are likely. They tried to pin him down for the Super Bowl forecast and he demurred, saying he hasn't looked (more concerned with oil and gas markets.)

When asked about the (cue shocking music) polar vortex, he said it is pretty normal for it to drop down, usually once every 4 years. The thing about this year is it has dropped 4 times already! That only happens once every 30-40 years. I hadn't heard that. Anyway, it was interesting, and I thought it was worth sharing.
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439. NEwxguy
5:12 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Hey,Lt,don't forget the April Fool's Day Storm back in 1997
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 885 Comments: 15937
438. originalLT
4:46 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Safe travels Hoy, have fun. Hey , if you're back by late Feb. there still could be some snow "action. NYC got 17.4" of snow on or about March 3-4th 1961(yes I remember that one!, Don't forget "Super Storm", March 12th or so 1993, and the Blizzard of '88--1888, that is, and no, I don't remember that one!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
437. Hoynieva
4:21 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 430. originalLT:
Morning"P", looks like I'm in the 8-10" range here in Stamford CT. Didn't really get one of those "pounding" heavy bands over me. On WCBS Radio, they had the Stamford, Greenwich, Norwalk areas with 10". You did well in forecasting. But I have to give the greatest credit for "pin point " forecasting to Hoynieva, early on he predicted 11.7" for his area, and he got 11.5" That's damn good!


Haha, thanks, LT, but it was just pure dumb luck. I threw that out there based on the surprising guidance on Monday and was definitely not being conservative when I did.

Quoting 434. Pcroton:
Hoy - Yeah kind of lost track a little last night as the wind started to just push so much around. Did my best with the measure - clear - measure again method - but probably a bit too quickly. I think it's supposed to be 4 hour intervals if I'm not mistaken.

Sticking a yard stick in the ground anywhere is futile. I have several 20"+ through the far back yard. A whole smooth area of 16-18" and then areas of 8-10". So eh... 14-18" all things from measurement method to wind included.







Yep, it got too crazy at some point and measuring became futile. I think all in all I did well with it considering the drifts, but that is likely due to my large terrace which has 3 foot walls all around, thus inhibiting some of those winds and leaving fairly large sized areas of nearly untouched accumulations.

Anyhow, Enjoy the rest of the winter everyone. I'll be setting off tomorrow for nearly a month and by the time I get back Spring will be just around the corner. Just in time for me to start seedlings. Farewell for now, and good luck with the models.

-Ad astra per aspera


Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
436. originalLT
4:19 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Hi NEw, you are right, it's all a question of balance in these situations, too much cold dry air can "push" that snow away. Also it's a bit of luck wether you get stuck under one of those intense bands like "P" did, a couple of times for him!--during the storm.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
435. NEwxguy
4:15 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Yep,this has been an interesting winter to say the least.
No shortage of cold air,thats for sure.
Trying to predict who's going to get what is a nightmare this year.All depending on the push of arctic air.Too much of the cold dry air had reached me,so moisture couldn't sustain itself for my area.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 885 Comments: 15937
434. Pcroton
3:46 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Morning Jass. Was an interesting close to the storm there with the banding being reinforced by the surge of moisture from VA/NC. About half of what I was hoping for but it was still a nice icing on the cake.


Goofy - comment about central park observations - you're not the first person I've heard such a comment from - About 20 years ago working in midtown we were getting hit hard and CPark came in with 1.3" of snow. Co-Worker quipped "Where? in the tool shed?"


Aqua - Poor garden. Taking a BEATING this winter with more on the way.


LT - so in the end you did what our original thoughts were prior to them slowly upping the forecast. 8" or so.


NEWx - well we always knew the northern and southern border zones would be make or break in a big way. Very tightly packed contours on the precip plume. Seems to be yet another theme to this season.

MAweatherboy - looks like central NJ from Trenton through my area was the big stripe. Several 15" readings within the swath. Several of those not updated yet this morning to include the extra snow last night. I would call it a 14-18" swath from Trenton through my area.


Hoy - Yeah kind of lost track a little last night as the wind started to just push so much around. Did my best with the measure - clear - measure again method - but probably a bit too quickly. I think it's supposed to be 4 hour intervals if I'm not mistaken.

Sticking a yard stick in the ground anywhere is futile. I have several 20"+ through the far back yard. A whole smooth area of 16-18" and then areas of 8-10". So eh... 14-18" all things from measurement method to wind included.

Philly - Yes in the sinking areas between bands it's akin to being directly under a modest area of high pressure center - its just calm. I had some windy moments and some calm moments while getting basically hit the whole time. Not much rhyme or reason to my wind yesterday.

Max - Thanks for stopping in. Let's not go that far! The tools functioned fairly well for this system once we all knew it was coming. There wasn't much to ponder or dismiss.


Peng - yet another unique storm setup. I think this continues until we get some southern stream energy and the coastal lows we're more accustomed to. These polar disturbances are tricky - especially since they've been combining with intense arctic fronts - I think that's the piece that has been driving the problematic forecasting most! Aside from the polar disturbances always being too far out of the sounding network at the start...and only having 24-48hrs notice that one may produce.



Well, if I missed anyone, apologies and thanks for stopping in.

On to the next...........






.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NW TO SE BEGINNING NEAR I80 LATE THU
AFTN WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA
AND N CENTRAL NJ WITH BANDS OF 1/2 INCH TO 1.5 INCH AMTS AS 925-700
LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 8.5C/KM. WILL PROBABLY GO 60 PCT POP THIS
AFTNS ISSUANCE THERE AND MAY??? POST A SNOW MAP FOR RELATIVELY MINOR
AMTS ALONG AND N OF I78.

OTRW MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN WITH GUIDANCE BLENDED TEMPS AS THE LONG
TERM DEEP FREEZE CONTINUES FOR INTERIOR MID ATLC. WEST WIND GUST
20 MPH AHEAD OF THE CFP.


====

THEN, BY SAT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN SERN CAN WILL MOVE EWD. ITS
ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE EWD AND CROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E
DURG SAT LATE MRNG/AFTN. THIS SYS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW,
THOUGH SYS DOESN`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ALL QPF IS
LIGHT BUT WILL BE ALL SNOW.

====

THEN, ANOTHER WK SYS WILL MOVE ACRS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AGAIN, THE MDLS DIFFER
IN THE EXACT DETAILS, WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE NRN TRACK,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CMC AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF
THE REGION. THE GFS HAS A MORE SRN TRACK AND IMPACTS MORE OF THE
AREA. AGAIN OVERALL QPF IS LIGHT ATTM, BUT TEMPS ARE DEFINITELY
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT AS WELL. ALL OF THE
MDLS ARE STICKING TO THEIR PREV SOLNS, SO FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY
LOW POPS AND TREND TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS.


----------------

All highlighted a few posts up by a couple model frame posts.


-Have a good afternoon!





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
433. Jasspjesta
3:32 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Morning P - offical trained spotter measurement of 9.0 in here in Southampton, NJ. About 13F right now. We stayed in some of the final heavy bands through midnight last night.
Member Since: December 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
432. Pcroton
3:30 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Thanks everyone for the comments and observations!

Once we know what/if we have something in the coming days I'll do a new blog entry.


Given how we have struggled with northern stream energy systems - not having any idea what to expect until we're 24 hours from onset - and only finally getting an inkling the disturbance could develop more from about 48 hours from onset - we are in no hurry.

Sounds like a small disturbance for Thursday. Then it's more around Monday that could be something interesting.

We shall look later today or tomorrow.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
431. Pcroton
3:29 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Here is the list of totals from the storm. In my county the top 3 totals didn't update since last evening. We had a few inches more since those updates.

A general 14-18" throughout the county with some of those close by..so I was somewhere in there as well.

NJ Public Information Statement







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
430. originalLT
3:28 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Morning"P", looks like I'm in the 8-10" range here in Stamford CT. Didn't really get one of those "pounding" heavy bands over me. On WCBS Radio, they had the Stamford, Greenwich, Norwalk areas with 10". You did well in forecasting. But I have to give the greatest credit for "pin point " forecasting to Hoynieva, early on he predicted 11.7" for his area, and he got 11.5" That's damn good!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
429. aquak9
3:10 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Yesterday, we had a FREAK hailstorm. We only had a 20% chance of showers! then, ka-POO-YAH!! Here's one of the garden beds, full of hail. Hubby took this pic while I was at work.



I went out this morning to check the damage. What a freak event.



My poor letti.



Today it is cold, and steel-bright shiny.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26246
428. goofyrider
2:42 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Funny remember being on the water off the Battery Marine Fire pier drilling soil and rock from a wooden skow. We had a hillybilly rig and used a casing mounted rig for the rock. For heat a salamander to melt the ice from the wrenches. Used to joke that they measured the temperature in a broom closet in Central Park. Snow also.

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2790
427. NEwxguy
1:43 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Well,the snow barely made it to my area,2 inches,maybe 3.Not too far south of me,over a foot.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 885 Comments: 15937
426. ncstorm
1:29 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Good Morning..snow flurries here this morning..look like that ocean effect snow might be making its way back to the coast?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
425. MAweatherboy1
1:24 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Morning P. Looks like you guys were the big winners with this one down there. I made out alright here, haven't measured yet but I probably have around 8-11", pretty close to what was forecast, maybe a bit more. Farther northwest of me is a different story. Hardly anything out that way.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920
424. PhillySnow
1:19 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 419. Pcroton:
Hi Philly. Sounds like a case of mesoscale banding to me. There are similar issues in my county. 6-8" about 15 miles to my SE. I'm in the 16-18" range.

You were between two bands so you ended up with the sinking air from both bands that were lifting around you and providing those heavier snows.
I knew it had something to do with the banding, but I didn't know about the sinking air. Does that explain why we had no wind? Instead, there was a beautiful calmness with snowflakes falling gently and quietly.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
423. Hoynieva
1:16 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Good luck getting a true measurement out there, P, drifts abound. I'm going to go with the Central Park total for once. It seems reasonable. I measured one more time before bed but was getting a lot of different readings and the average was 11" with snow still falling.

11.5" it is.

Cold as can be out there. Brutal.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
422. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:09 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 417. Pcroton:
Looks like I had 16-18" here. Impossible to tell. Wind just drove everything around last night. Seeing locations with 16" around midnight in the region and it was still snowing. So it's a safe bet. Pennies on the dollar at this point.


I see you are a good forecaster.

You did get over 1'. Some places around the NYC area including Fairfield county, CT did around 10-14"

The 14-18" contour was places in the Bos nws map for a big area but now shrank... They have been very inconsistent with snowfall forecasting.
NYC dragged the 10-14" for coastal CT at one point and NJ did such contour for most of the state including Monmouth. As far down as De/MD.

DC may have underperformed. Not sure.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
421. PengSnow
1:08 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Kind of amazing this storm and how rapidly it intensified. As mentioned yesterday I got about 3 more inches than the pgh airport about 15 miles away and areas about 40 miles east and south got close to 8.

Cant wait to see the totals coming out of the coast especially Wildwood, AC, Red Bank NJ and Ocean City, MD.

I get hit with 1-maybe 2 tonight and tomorrow, another 1-3 Saturday and then all eyes are on a repeat to the identical area about 5-6 days from now.

For people south of Virginia, watch the storm in Texas, does that energy get wrapped out with the northern Low, if so, look out,

To All Be Safe and I will be back in Town later Thursday or Friday late.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
420. Pcroton
1:03 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Taunton Mass has been ALL OVER the place with their snow maps. Jacked up, reduced to little to nothing, jacked back up, reduced again, then finally jacked up again. I guess they were fighting with those late model solutions that had the low arcing farther north and west at times. I never bought those rogue GFS northern tracks. It just didn't make any logical sense given the arctic boundary the low was following.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
419. Pcroton
1:01 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Hi Philly. Sounds like a case of mesoscale banding to me. There are similar issues in my county. 6-8" about 15 miles to my SE. I'm in the 16-18" range.

You were between two bands so you ended up with the sinking air from both bands that were lifting around you and providing those heavier snows.


Well the storm sure evolved strangely. Arctic front still very visible to the ENE of the system. These arctic fronts are th big reason for these storms blowing up.




Underestimated EVERY time.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
418. PhillySnow
12:53 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
This is so interesting. People are reporting 14" for Media and some surrounding areas, and we've not got that at all. We measured in several locations, with results between 8.75" and 9.75". The other difference is the reports of wind. It was not windy here, except at the very beginning of the storm. It was quite a gently snow, and we have no snow drifts.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
417. Pcroton
12:50 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Looks like I had 16-18" here. Impossible to tell. Wind just drove everything around last night. Seeing locations with 16" around midnight in the region and it was still snowing. So it's a safe bet. Pennies on the dollar at this point.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
416. Pcroton
12:48 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
A quick look ahead shows multiple disturbances any which could produce. Monday looks most interesting at this time.

Each frame I post isn't necessarily a storm solution but it shows energy combining to give the chance for a storm to form. Some of these later frames look meager but you cannot predict phasing this far in advance. Looks like the southern jet wants to try to get involved in the near future.












GFS 144hr totals, dependent on phases, which it seems the models are underplaying the chances of phasing. I think we're going to keep getting hit here.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
415. Pcroton
11:22 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
It snowed through 5AM here...and look at the totals hours earlier.






And, it's cold and windy.


Temps:






Winds:





Wind Chills:




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
414. Pcroton
11:14 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Good Morning. 7F and dropping.

Wanted to sleep in. More plows this morning. Looks like last night produced another 2-4". Will have to go around measuring to see our totals but it looks to be in the 17-18" range.


Here are some totals from my county while it was still raging out there:


...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANALAPAN 15.8 1205 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
ENGLISHTOWN 15.1 1045 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
FREEHOLD 14.3 140 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLTS NECK 13.1 859 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER


It was still snowing here at 5AM.


Other parts of NJ:



...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
CINNAMINSON 13.5 1200 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
CROSSWICKS 13.0 900 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 13.0 1200 AM 1/22 NWS OFFICE


...CAMDEN COUNTY...
COLLINGSWOOD 12.8 1200 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
HADDON HEIGHTS 12.3 100 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNSAUKEN 11.6 930 PM 1/21 DRIFTS UP TO 2 FEET.






Parts of SE PA:


...DELAWARE COUNTY...
BROOKHAVEN 14.8 1000 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MEDIA 14.2 1000 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
CLIFTON HEIGHTS 13.9 1120 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER


...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
WYNNEWOOD 12.0 924 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
JENKINTOWN 11.0 1100 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
KING OF PRUSSIA 10.1 1220 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER


...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA OEM 14.0 1200 AM 1/22 COUNTY OFFICIAL
PHILADELPHIA INTL AI 13.5 100 AM 1/22 ASOS
FOX CHASE 12.5 1015 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
BROOKHAVEN 14.8 1000 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MEDIA 14.2 1000 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
CLIFTON HEIGHTS 13.9 1120 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
FOLSOM 13.2 1115 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER



Maryland...

...CECIL COUNTY...
NORTHEAST HEIGHTS 11.0 900 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLORA 10.2 1013 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER





Delaware...


...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
PIKE CREEK 12.0 945 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
TALLEYVILLE 12.0 1200 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
GREENVILLE 11.5 200 AM 1/22 DEOS
BEAR 11.3 1000 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH STAR 11.0 1000 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
WILMINGTON AIRPORT 10.5 1200 AM 1/22 ASOS
WILMINGTON 10.5 906 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
413. originalLT
5:42 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Interesting note, as the snow has stopped here(stamford CT), about an hour ago, the barometer has now fallen to 29.82". While it was snowing, for the most part it was around 29.92" Winds now picking up here from the NW to NNW at 10-20mph. 9F outside with wind chills about -5F at times. BRRR!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
412. Pcroton
4:09 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
snow heavy again
winds gusting over 40
significant increase in wind when new echoes hit
looks like the additional is panning out
what a wild storm
another inch out there
looks like several more hours of 1-2" rates with deep echoes again
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
411. Pcroton
3:41 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 409. Jasspjesta:


Great blog today. I'll be up a little longer will keep posting observations from the pine barrens here as long as I can. On the border of this I think



Thanks. Would be crazy to awake to another 3-6 lol. We'll see. Toss up but looks good - unless the low wraps some more and pulls it back off the coast sooner.


Good Night.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
410. Pcroton
3:40 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
I just found my answer!


A BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL REMAINED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AT 930 PM. THE SNOWFALL RATES IN THE BAND
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND VICINITY. THE PRECIPITATION WAS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
DURING THE NIGHT.

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW TOTALS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN MOST
PLACES, EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
FALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW
SHOULD NOT REACH THE COAST UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE POCONOS AND IT WILL END SHORTLY IN
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. AGAIN, OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL PICK
UP THE BULK OF THEIR SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WITH TOTALS IN THE 4 TO 8
INCH RANGE.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
409. Jasspjesta
3:39 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 408. Pcroton:
A little resurgence, reference post #405.




Models showed this and right now it's doing it. Is it a temporary thing that resumes an easterly shift soon? Or does it continue through the overnight until 6 to 9Z like both the 18Z Nam and Gfs showed?

Well, that's my last tidbit for the night.

Thanks to all who participated in the storm blogging.


15" with moderate snow falling again with renewed echoes moving in from the south.


Great blog today. I'll be up a little longer will keep posting observations from the pine barrens here as long as I can. On the border of this I think
Member Since: December 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
408. Pcroton
3:36 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
A little resurgence, reference post #405.




Models showed this and right now it's doing it. Is it a temporary thing that resumes an easterly shift soon? Or does it continue through the overnight until 6 to 9Z like both the 18Z Nam and Gfs showed?

Well, that's my last tidbit for the night.

Thanks to all who participated in the storm blogging.


15" with moderate snow falling again with renewed echoes moving in from the south.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
407. Pcroton
3:25 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Decent, Goofy. You just got left out of a lot of early stuff.


Check out the progression of the storm all day. Nice link found by Blizz.

Link

Monmouth County was just getting hammered. Still snowing moderately.


Fixed post #405 to add image in properly....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052
406. goofyrider
3:22 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
6 in - 8 in here P
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2790
405. Pcroton
3:17 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Red encircled areas... may move into and affect dashed lined encircled area of coastal MD-DE-NJ through the overnight.



It's going to be a close call. If it does it you're talking another 3-6" along the immediate shoreline to 15 miles inland.

Models did show this happening..and the radar echoes do support it at the moment.

Depends on how the low exits - or rather transfers itself along that boundary tonight.


We'll find out in the morning!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9052

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.