A return to winter or just seasonable? NE/Mdl Atl

By: Pcroton , 1:09 AM GMT on January 12, 2014

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A return to winter or just seasonable?

Middle Atlantic, Jan 12.

It seems there has a been a lot of buzz about winter returning in a powerful manner later this week. From the data I have looked at over the past seven days leading up to now I have gone against this thinking and will continue to do so.

I feel like it is over stated and although it may seem sound in theory, a cold air intrusion aiding in northern and southern streams interacting to cause coastal cyclogenesis, there has been no support of such a system taking shape thus far.

While models have been known to push one solution, then finally sample an important disturbance, and suddenly flip their solutions...I just don't see that occurring this time. If that were to happen it would start with the 0Z Monday models as the disturbance leading to our late week storm system should be better sampled by Sunday afternoon and that data should make the 0Z model runs.

I also believe the idea that we're returning to arctic weather is over stated. After a cold weekend we will moderate and continue with our zonal flow and our seasonably moderate temperatures followed by the occasional frontal system and next 1-2 day cool down.


Here is the GFS on a potential weak system later in the week: I think the surface temperatures are going to be warm enough where some may only get a mix of rain and some snow and no real accumulations. You can see at 500mb there is no Candian Maritime blocking. The stage is set for this disturbance to be a weak mix and fly out to sea.










Here is the Euro on the same potential system:









As you can see these are two weak zonal solutions with no blocking and limited cold air available. I think this is much ado about nothing. Given this is the only system in town there is no data to support the idea of a coastal storm coupled with an arctic air intrusion for later this week. I just don't see it happening. These solutions are not unlike the modeling leading up to our most recent Thursday night into Friday morning storm. What was once seen as a potential 1-3" snow threat turned into a Friday morning icy nightmare and then rain.


Here is the NAO, which was rumored to go quite negative, and in fact after a little negative blip later this week which appears to be incorrect (ref the 500mb chartsshowing riding in the Canadian Maritimes), will apparently head quite positive. I would discount the negative blip, especially the ensembles doing a 1 day huge drop prior to returning positive. It just doesn't fit with the 500mb pattern.







We have seen through the season that the positive trips for the NAO seem to last 2+ weeks. So if this next positive period comes to fruition we're not looking at a change for at least 2 weeks in my opinion and the modeling seems to support that. Of course all if this is based on whether or not you trust the modeling.


Here are some regional temperature bufkits for the temporary weekend cooldown:


LaGuardia Airport, Queens NY Bufkit:




Philadelphia, PA Bufkit:




Here is the longer range peek at the GFS at the 500mb level. I don't see any significant arctic outbreaks. Just your more run of the mill zonal flow mixed in with some short lived cooler days after the passages of weak cold fronts associated with northern stream disturbances in southern Canada. Honestly it resembles more fall like weather in this case. Here are a few select panes to illustrate the outbreaks and the zonal periods. With the dips in the east the west is zonal. When the eastern dips move on the western zonal flow moves in.








Things can and do change but I would at this time be quite tempered in enthusiasm if you were expecting a return to the severe arctic weather we had just gotten through and were hoping to couple that with a coastal pipeline of storms. At this time it just does not appear to exist.


Here is a look at the 500mb pattern from above, you are looking down on the north pole, with the US in the bottom portion of the image. Note that throughout the Northern Hemisphere there is no noteworthy pattern amplification.





Here is another component to our early season storms, the sub-tropical jet stream, which is extremely weak and in fact the weakest I've seen it so far this fall/winter season. You can also see on the windstreams picture the very narrow and short lived 500mb polar intrusions. These will be a feature of the next two weeks it would appear. Short lived 1-2 day cool downs and 5-6 day zonal seasonable weather.








To make a note some folks who did believe in a "return to deep winter" were looking more towards the very end of January and even the first week of February. While winter is not over time does move quickly and if we find ourselves in early February and the next 16 days continue to show more of the same....well we do know that Valentines day frequently is a good bench mark to see winter begin to transition around the Middle Atlantic...so we could indeed be coming to a close. It does pay to keep in mind we've all seen big snow storms in late February, and even March, and in the northern Middle Atlantic every few years early April yields a surprise. Winter is not over until the grass is green and the plants are awakening. Yet as we learned late last year in March, twice in fact, if you don't have blocking you don't have a snow storm and instead you get some messy teases that disappoint.

That said there has been a lot of focus on winter returning in a severe manner this week. I think the bigger question at this time is whether or not the severe part of winter has passed and we are looking at a more seasonable second half to winter - or does the second half of winter also feature another round of arctic temps.

With the NAO modeled to go positive and the 500mb level appearing to be progressive and zonal with only minimal and short lived dips I don't think we get our answer any time over the next two weeks.

As always the models do not drive the weather. The GFS is not a train schedule and the storms are not trains. We go with what we can see and what we can see right now does not fall in line with the desires to see a big return of winter at this time.

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45. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:36 PM GMT on January 14, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
44. Pcroton
12:32 PM GMT on January 14, 2014
Good Morning all.

That was a nice pic, Goofy. I should have headed down to the beach. I thought about it but got tied up with errands.


This morning's radar scope certainly features a lot more active weather than the models had shown.



Today's system was weakly modeled and covers quite the area.

Out west we can see a nice clipper coming down and the cold air returning behind it.

I think our focus today will be this week's disturbances...and we'll leave the longer term be until we get closer.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
43. goofyrider
11:31 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Evening P

See : http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/RobDaHood/com ment.html?entrynum=89 post 891

for shot and vid of Washington Ave beach yesterday.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
42. Pcroton
11:31 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Evening, Peng. No lost faith, just impatience. Also I'm not a fan of hype...it just causes confusion and then disgust.

Just like the gun was jumped on warming up (many outlets suggesting starting late Dec or by Jan 2nd we would all be warm and staying that way)... it seems the gun was jumped on cooling back down (many thoughts seemed to at least allude to the idea that we'd be dealing with arctic air and a nor easter the middle of this week to late week)



Looks like our first potential big one may be as early as the 22nd given today's guidance...with a 2nd one the 27th. So still generally last week of January - give or take a day...for the return of a more favorable pattern for big storms.

Until then it's touch and go with these little ones. Seems like the more I've dug this evening the less clear any one of these disturbances seem - in fact it would appear that opinion on them has actually diverged more as the day went on.


Ocean Prediction Center seems very bold on Wednesday's system:



"Developing Gale".


===

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
41. PengSnow
11:09 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
To All keep the faith snow is coming, in my neck of the woods i could see 4-8 COMBINED thru Sunday, then next week we all get in the action, do not fight the european nor any other model, they are guidance and thats it, the global pattern will dictate what happens next week, the key is, does it happen before the 24th of January??? Would be nice to see it happen next weekend, so most of us can enjoy it, to all heading to the left coast to handle some business will be back late/later on Friday.

To All Be Safe!!!
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
40. Pcroton
10:59 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
HWO for DC?



412 pm est mon jan 13 2014

This hazardous weather outlook is for the maryland portion of the
chesapeake bay...Tidal potomac river...And adjacent counties in
central maryland and northern virginia as well as the district of
columbia.

.Days two through seven...Tuesday through sunday

Low pressure has the potential to bring accumulating snow to the
area late wednesday into wednesday night.
There is still
uncertainty with the track and timing of the low...Which will
determine the precipitation type and amount. Please monitor the
latest forecasts.

=================





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
39. Pcroton
10:41 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
And finally for this evening... Mount Holly put a lot of thought into it's extended. Never seen them do this before.


Friday night through saturday night: the ecmwf brings a clipper
system further north phasing it into a low pressure system from the
southern branch leading to a decent rain/snow event. While the gfs
is cooler and weaker only bringing scattered flurries. Only a few
members of the ensemble suite showing something more than a clipper.
The ukmet and cmc also have there own ideas. Did not buy into the op
ecmwf waa surge ahead of this system and kept temperatures more
along the lines of the mex and 12z gfs. For now only brought up pops
into the low chance range given the higher degree of uncertainty in
this period.

Sunday and monday: fairly good agreement on most weather elements in
this period with the model guidance and stuck fairly close to wpc. A
period of caa on the backside of any front or storm system with 850
mb temps falling below -10c we may struggle to reach freezing from
phl nw. Coupled with some wind it should be a fairly cold day
sunday. We should moderate monday ahead of the next frontal system.

General outlook: the stair step down to near seasonal and then below
seasonal temperatures will occur as a series of cold fronts move
through the region. Our old friend, the polar vortex currently in
northwestern canada is about to take a hit. An upward propagating
rossby wave is predicted to perturb and elongate it during the
long term period (and beyond). This should once again send part of
the vortex into northeastern canada. Coupled with disturbances
cresting the eastern pacific ridge, they will act in tandem to
bring colder air into the forecast area once again. The latest
ecmwf stratospheric model solution polar vortex hit is so intense,
this is the first time this winter that stratospheric warming
(stronger around 10mb for now) is predicted to start. Whether it
can work its way down into the troposphere and where it does,
would have an impact on the northern hemisphere`s weather and
teleconnection patterns into february.

Beyond our deterministic period the week2 temps: the lines
continue to be drawn between the naefs (near normal) and the ecmwf
(dont ask). Both have been remaining in their respective normal vs
cold camps. However both the gfs and ecmwf op runs from this
afternoon are showing ominous signs the arctic air is returning
to the pattern.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
38. Pcroton
10:32 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
The Canadian gives a different look to Saturday with a bigger storm but off shore and warm.




The Euro meanwhile is trying to go snow storm, negative tilt, negative nao and blocking... eh, yeah you go Euro, we can probably put it in the trash bin with your "widespread -20F into the deep south!" arctic outbreaks.




And ya can see the Mighty GFS solution in post #34.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
37. Pcroton
10:02 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Quoting 35. NumberWise:
It sounds like you're getting bored....!


I am not known to be able to twiddle thumbs and wait patiently, no.

I start going a little haywire....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
36. Pcroton
10:01 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
The end result of all the little GFS systems is this:

144hrs total GFS Snowfall Accumulation - I drew a 0" contour line in blue.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
35. NumberWise
9:58 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
It sounds like you're getting bored....!
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34. Pcroton
9:54 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Our next three minor disturbances...

Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday...








Being so close together I don't see how any of these become significant players. Maybe if one were to not materialize it could provide more of a window for one of them to hit the water and develop quicker than thought before heading out to sea.

Yet this is akin to someone playing the lottery to win 3 bucks back. It's not what we do.

We're fishing for the big one here...and those threats seem to be confined to the last week (8 days) of January.

We were promised a cataclysmic return to winter, a day of reckoning and repenting of all our sins, and I'll be damned if I'm gunna let some sloppy lazy clippers get me excited because one might "blow up" to give somebody 4" of snow.



I demand this:





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33. Pcroton
9:43 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Thanks for chiming in, Dodabear.

It would seem at this time all have gravitated towards the idea we will be at least seasonally quiet for the next 7-10 days.

After that we do have the threat potential on the horizon to watch but I think at this time we're not going to get anywhere with it until say January 18th.

By then we should have a good look at the 22nd storm potential and the 27th storm's pattern.


In other news the January 11th storm caused some lightning damage in Mass...

0334 PM LIGHTNING FRAMINGHAM 42.31N 71.44W
01/11/2014 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

LIGHTNING STRIKE BLEW CHIMNEY OFF HOME ON CHERRY
STREET.

0350 PM LIGHTNING DANVERS 42.57N 70.95W
01/11/2014 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

LIGHTNING CAUSED DAMAGE TO ROOF OF HOUSE ON LAKEVIEW
AVE.

=================

Always curious about lightning blowing a chimney apart. It's a common occurance. I am guessing it has to do with the moisture in mortar and brick expanding as they are pourous.



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32. Dodabear
7:47 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
P, seems that Balt/Wash NWS agrees with you on the coming week.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS OR SNOWS IN THE XTND...BUT NO BIG WARMUPS EITHER. THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF CHAOS IN THE UPR ATMOSPHERE...BUT CHAOS IS NOT NECESSARILY A BAD THING...AS THE WAY TO GET A BIG STORM IS FOR THERE TO BE ONE STORM WHICH IS ABLE TO UTILIZE LARGE AMTS OF ENERGY. INSTEAD THERE WL BE SVRL FAST MOVG SYSTEMS DURG THE WORKWEEK.
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
31. Pcroton
6:57 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
What we do know is it's quite warm out there today...

1PM:








We are 58F here in Tinton Falls NJ
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30. Pcroton
6:52 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
CPC isn't exactly helping matters here. They seem none too interested with any big storms or arctic air the next two weeks.







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29. Pcroton
6:39 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
For the heck of it the snow depths after both storms...



The above map is SNOW DEPTH, not snowfall accumulations.


I realize we don't want to be following exact details and we're looking for patterns. Right now the pattern suggests some available cold air and some coastal development - but in a progressive flow and positive NAO.


I guess at this point we need to wait a good 5 days or so to get that much closer before we really know what's going on. Until then they're just computer generated guesses.

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28. Pcroton
6:32 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
The only other thing I can see is that at Day 8 there is a system that could provide some blocking if it sticks around long enough for Day 9. But it doesn't seem to do much.

Remember, we're looking for blockbusters here. The commentary has been look for winter to return with a big bang - meaning... resumption of the deep arctic outbreaks and a blockbuster storm.

Day 8...Look at the system that winds up in the Canadian Maritimes.









Day 9... Seems relatively sloppy and looking to just move along.










I guess at this point we know what to look for. Look for blocking on Day 8 for a potential storm on Day 9. Look for the Jan 27th 2nd storm.

But none of this really matters if we don't have a negative NAO and as of now the same models that see these two storm threats see a positive NAO and progressive flow.

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27. Pcroton
6:18 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
I continue to see nothing that indicates a powerful negative NAO blocking and arctic air intrusions are on the way.





Here is the only game in town - the modeled potential of a big storm around January 27th.

Here is the 0Z GFS....







Here is the 12Z GFS...








The difference in the two model runs is the 0Z had a nice negative tilted trough... and the 12Z has a positive tilted trough. Neither solution shows any acceptable blocking in order to see a blockbuster system.

The NAO is not modeled favorably and it appears the latest GFS run which sees further ahead put the next day higher....so there's not even a trend towards negative on the runs. It's strictly positive and staying there.

I'm really going to have to be proven that winter is returing in some vicious form with this.

It was supposed to happen this week and it's clearly not. It was supposed to happen next week and it's clearly not. Latest signs make it seem like the last week of January is the next best bet but that latest model run shows...even that's not a given.

Where am I going with this? Am I saying winter is finished? Of course not and I don't want anyone to think that is what I am suggesting.

What I am doing is challenging the thought we were going to plunge back into deep arctic outbreaks coupled with coastal bombs...starting this week.

It's just not there, folks, and even the lone point in the long range model runs where you could say "Yeah that looks like things are coming together" is hardly a slam dunk on it's own.

I think any return to DEEP winter is so far off that we can't even see it within a modeling time frame that we can trust.

Until then we will continue to watch the modeled NAO and the arctic air situation in North America which right now is absolutely nothing to write home about.

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26. Pcroton
12:32 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Quoting 19. aquak9:
hi P, et al

we got .79 last night in the CocoRAHS, and lotsa lightning

today I'm shoveling sunshine with squinted eye

If winter for me is over- it's TIME for me to start laying seed- ALREADY??



Nope....not over for ya. More 40s and even some 30s are possible in January. I'd keep the shoes handy.




Have a good morning folks.

Morning analysis begins on Post #23


================
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
25. Pcroton
12:29 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Quoting 22. PengSnow:
P, As always Great Work! I guess we are in a wait and see pattern for the next 2-3 days to see what pans out for early next week, with having some met friends, one who is scientific(basically does all the grunt work-but highly successful)and one who is the "on air" persona, Nationally. During the holidays they both gave me the perspective of looking globally in terms of forecasting, as mentioned yesterday a pattern is a pattern is long term and is ocean influenced, even though a hurricane or typhoon or volcano(something i missed yesterday)can briefly alter a forecast,but looking globally which you have now started doing, might give all of us better answers. Blizz, on your end you might be starting to learn the more in depth the science of weather.

To all be Safe!!!


It looks like it's coming but....I just think it's delayed is all. Jan 25 and beyond. It looks like Jan 27th is a legitimate threat. Not that we're looking for and trusting details but it's been modeled consistently to finally get a little blocking, a negative trough, and a surface disturbance.



January 23rd:





January 25th:




========================================

January 27th:





========================================


January 29th:



========================================

We can see however we're banking on a solo storm threat to realize "winter returns big time".

Temperature wise and jet stream wise the arctic outbreaks don't exist. These are seasonable jet stream dips. Always look at the heights not the actual structure to get a feel for the intensity of the cold air intrusions.

Aside from the one storm in 16 days the rest of the run isn't impressive beyond "seasonal".


...........
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24. Pcroton
12:20 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Now lets take a look at some temperature analysis and modeling and the 500mb pattern associated with it. The next 8 days are nothing to write home about. Seasonal temps and small outbreaks.


Current Temperatures. As has been the case all fall and winter the spine of the cold air has pointed in our direction.




Modeled temps: Here I selected the 3 cold snaps of the next 8 days for the North East.










Modeled 500mb: Here I selected the 3 500mb dips in the east to coincide with the above cold snaps. One big note is the western ridge that persists. This is a good sign. Now we need cold air to rebuild in the arctic and that ridge will funnel it down to the eastern US. It is a waiting game.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
23. Pcroton
12:06 PM GMT on January 13, 2014
Good Morning all. 26F, heavy frost this morning.


Looks like Steve thinks that with all the minor disturbances that are flowing through the next 10 days that any one could potentially hit the water and develop just right to cause a moderate snowfall in the region.

We've all seen it happen but we've all seen 99 out of 100 just kick out to sea. Maybe we get lucky with one...but as of now I don't see anything.

Forecast is all rain Tonight into Wednesday night now. Some snow showers in the forecast for Saturday.



Since our rainfall is the most recent topic here is some analysis.



Last system:








Last 30 Days:





Departure from Normal last 30 days:



==============================================

You can see how badly the west coast has paid for the pattern that has given us our cold and moderate snowfalls. Their death ridge has been very bad. While we root for a return to winter that in turn will really set them back. Without a good snow pack a major drought will persist and expand out west. You wonder how and why they keep expanding Los Angeles and Las Vegas considering both cities depend on water piped in from long distances - which is dependant on river flow - which depends on persistent precipitation.


Departure from Normal last 30 days:





Resource Link: http://water.weather.gov/precip/



.
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22. PengSnow
6:05 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
P, As always Great Work! I guess we are in a wait and see pattern for the next 2-3 days to see what pans out for early next week, with having some met friends, one who is scientific(basically does all the grunt work-but highly successful)and one who is the "on air" persona, Nationally. During the holidays they both gave me the perspective of looking globally in terms of forecasting, as mentioned yesterday a pattern is a pattern is long term and is ocean influenced, even though a hurricane or typhoon or volcano(something i missed yesterday)can briefly alter a forecast,but looking globally which you have now started doing, might give all of us better answers. Blizz, on your end you might be starting to learn the more in depth the science of weather.

To all be Safe!!!
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21. originalLT
5:06 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
I received 0.89" of rain yesterday, here in Stamford CT.
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20. Hoynieva
3:55 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Yep,
Quoting 8. Pcroton:
Another good perspective: Global.

Notice we still have the outbreaks pointing East but they are far more tame than what we had seen and they have much less resource cold behind them.

Notice how the majority of the cold is in Asia...and it looks like at least over the next 8 days that North America is struggling to rebuild it's deep cold.








oO, i see you've decided to expand your maps to where I'll be ;)

Japan to China to Taiwan. Really looking forward.

Looks like you're thinking the return to cold and possible snowy weather will occur while I'm away - I have no problem with that. Once I get back maybe we'll have another decent snow before the earth awakens beneath us and seeds are soon sown.
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19. aquak9
3:24 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
hi P, et al

we got .79 last night in the CocoRAHS, and lotsa lightning

today I'm shoveling sunshine with squinted eye

If winter for me is over- it's TIME for me to start laying seed- ALREADY??
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25927
18. Pcroton
2:57 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Quoting 16. originalLT:
Hi "P", yeah I just watched the video from Steve Di. He is indicating a pattern change beginning this week, a clipper pattern leading to a"step-down" in temp. colder pattern. I felt that besides being cold here again by next Sat. He seems to be sticking to that bigger storm potential just after or around the 20th or so. But as he said, and what you've pointed out, that to go much beyond 5 days in the modeling, is a crap shoot.


We've got a lot of time to sit and watch that is for sure.

At least we know nothing is imminent which I always felt was just out of bounds. At least it seems most have abandoned that idea.

I'll have to watch his video and see what he's alluding to when thinking the 20th.

As of now the models are pointing more towards the 25th and beyond.

Steady as she goes....have a good day all.


===


This morning's updates begin with Post #12



==
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17. Pcroton
2:55 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Some snow map analysis....it is promising that the finger of greater snow depths points towards the NE/Middle Atlantic region from Canada. It means if we do return to a deeper state of winter that the cold would set up back where it had been.

Once it does that all we really need is blocking.












This morning's updates begin with Post #12



.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
16. originalLT
2:48 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Hi "P", yeah I just watched the video from Steve Di. He is indicating a pattern change beginning this week, a clipper pattern leading to a"step-down" in temp. colder pattern. I felt that besides being cold here again by next Sat. He seems to be sticking to that bigger storm potential just after or around the 20th or so. But as he said, and what you've pointed out, that to go much beyond 5 days in the modeling, is a crap shoot.
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15. Pcroton
2:30 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Quoting 13. originalLT:
Morning "P", yes I did see your post #6. ---You do make a strong case for the up coming weather for the next 2 weeks. It will be interesting to see if Steve DiMartino comes around to your way of thinking, or continues to hold to his overall colder and stormier solution, which would commence about the 18th or so.



There are signs the stormy weather will return. It just wasn't going to happen this week and probably not quite the next either.

12-14 days of seasonable weather here I would think.

Then if the long range hints are correct the last week of January things look to ramp up again - however again we're looking at a single storm to be a blockbuster in order to verify this thinking.

As you can see in my big post this morning there is such a threat both in 500mb level and surface features. Jan 25-27 time frame.

Unfortunately... 10 days is a long time. We can go 5 days here and then see the models push all that forward another 5 days. It's simply not a given...but the signs are there.

A good analog to that would be that back in mid April the GFS constantly had Western Caribbean tropical development in it's 336-384 hour time range. It eventually came 8-10 weeks later... but each couple of days the GFS just kept the system at the tail end of it's run - the system never moved up through the hours.

Let's hope there's not a similiar situation here and that what we see on today's GFS - in five days - is five days earlier in the model run.

That's essentially what we need to watch now. Does that Jan 25-27 time frame remain Jan 25-27 or in 3 days is it Jan 28-31 on the models?

Other than watching that we're held hostage and will twiddle our thumbs.

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14. Pcroton
2:23 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Seems Steve has changed his thinking to shift ahead a week or so as well:


Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 21m

However, the period after the 20th is game on!

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 21m

In today's video I explain why next week's pattern likely won't produce major snow unless low intensifies just right.


===================

Looks like those that said it would come the last week of January or the first week of February were on target with this one

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13. originalLT
2:13 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Morning "P", yes I did see your post #6. ---You do make a strong case for the up coming weather for the next 2 weeks. It will be interesting to see if Steve DiMartino comes around to your way of thinking, or continues to hold to his overall colder and stormier solution, which would commence about the 18th or so.
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12. Pcroton
1:42 PM GMT on January 12, 2014
Quoting 11. originalLT:
Hi "P", just took the "test" I'm 2 boxes to the Northeast of you--almost the same. How about that!


Interesting test to say the least. Did ya see my post about the warm up regarding the outlets that sounded that alarm? Tail end of Post #6.

=========================


Let's take a look at a couple model runs this morning and see what we got. This system(s) are nothing this week. There is no storm. There is no impressive arctic air outbreak. Sat-Sun may feature highs 30-35 and lows 20-25 across the greater region. It's a bust, folks. If you want winter weather perhaps look towards the last week of January which I cover towards the end of this posts. There are some interesting things.



GFS/NAM Tues-Wed




EURO Wed-Thur-Fri




GFS Snow:





NAM Snow:





Bufkit Newark, NJ: Temperatures.






Here is your 500MB pattern with the 5400 line highlighted best I could: Here are your "outbreaks" which are nothing more than seasonal temperatures. They are also short lived. Get ready for more temperature rollercoasters but with a lesser gradient than before. Also note absolutely zero Maritime blocking.












There are no storm systems to be had through the 10 day. There's one sloppy looking zonal system on day 10:





I'm afraid this is all boring seasonal stuff over the next 10-12 days.

=====================================


Now let's look farther ahead...towards the last week of January:


Here is the NAO: Maybe by the 25th and beyond??






Here is the GFS longer range. A couple notes of interest some signs of a little maritime blocking and some systems starting the 25th.


500MB: Nothing spectacular but certainly better.











Surface Features:





This could be the one of interesting potential:






This last one is Zonal:






And lastly the snow maps:







There are some things of interest in the final week of January there....so that is where I'd focus my attention if I were looking for a true return to winter weather.




NWS on this week:
Well....nothing:

TUESDAY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.
LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
11. originalLT
3:21 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Hi "P", just took the "test" I'm 2 boxes to the Northeast of you--almost the same. How about that!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7512
10. Pcroton
3:18 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
The NAM appears entirely unimpressed with either event next week:






Well, that's it for tonight, not sticking around the for 0Z GFS.

We will see where things stand in the morning but at this rate I'm thinking the 0Z Monday or 12Z Monday models might give us a better look as the mischeif makers should be better sampled by then.

With the better data the models could produce better results.

At this time however the idea stands that no significant storm is on the horizon and other than the weekend cool down there is really just a return of seasonable temperatures.

The weekend event, although cool (30s high, 20s low). isn't quite near what we had recently experienced and also looks to be the coldest outbreak on the models reaching out 16 days.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
9. Pcroton
3:08 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
I certainly expected more today.



In the larger regional scope it seems like we came in low on winds and rains and the impressive weather was very isolated.


Earlier modeling showed a very low level jet of high winds and very strong and persistent convection aligning in the coastal plane.

While we had some thunder, some heavy rain bursts, and some winds 35-40... it wasn't anywhere near as bad as modeled.


There was a report of thunderstorm wind damage in Maryland.


0408 PM TSTM WND DMG
01/11/2014 ST. MARYS MD 911 CALL CENTER


SPC Wind report maps:




Remember there was a time when the SPC only put verified wind reports of storm force on these maps (58mph plus) but these days they put anything out there. Little Jenny finds a green leaf on her pink prius? She places a storm damage call and a blue dot appears on this map.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
8. Pcroton
2:53 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Another good perspective: Global.

Notice we still have the outbreaks pointing East but they are far more tame than what we had seen and they have much less resource cold behind them.

Notice how the majority of the cold is in Asia...and it looks like at least over the next 8 days that North America is struggling to rebuild it's deep cold.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
7. Pcroton
2:40 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Temperatures well retreated into the north at this hour.



It will be curious to see how much and where the polar air resets.

In theory it should return to where it had been set up all winter long. There should be denser snow pack in central and eastern Canada to aide in that.

Here are the 8-14 day outlooks from Environment Canada and NOAA:






There is a lot of warmth on the maps. No significant cold areas...mostly normal out East. (Take special care in noting the ECanada color scales, purple is NORMAL not below normal).

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
6. Pcroton
2:23 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
I remember you were much more active and then disappeared.

Asia Vacation? Back Mid-February...either you'll find us discussing the death throws of the end of winter or salivating at the next snow storm.


Here's another good look at the 500mb pattern of just the occasional polar jet dip and zonal flow inbetween. It looks more impressive than it is - the heights involved in the dips are not all that low - and the surface features are in Canada with trailing cold fronts into our region.




You can see at the 10 day end how we go zonal. This coincides with the modeled NAO going quite positive.

This ten day pattern is more or less seasonable weather. A dry stretch, a few moderate days, a cold front from a northern disturbance, a cold day or two, and more moderation.




LT - if you're around, perhaps this is what the major outlets thought they saw coming - but is just evolving a week or two later than they first thought (targeting the first days of January as the start of warmer weather). I still say they were out of bounds talking mid 40s and higher for all of January. That thinking was absurd. They were essentially calling for an end to winter. TWC did retract that and tried a little damage control saying "oh no no, we mean 30s by warmup" but by then it was too late. The news was out.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
5. Hoynieva
1:40 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Well, at least some admit their mistakes. Everyone should.

In previous winters, prior to last, I was more involved with not only these blogs, but reading models and following trends, etc., but with the job I currently have this isn't possible. I realized this when I stumbled across one of Blizz's blogs from 2011. I had kind of forgotten the amount of posts I was making as well as throwing up maps and model runs and the like...obviously nowhere near what you do, but more than I remembered and night and day with what I do now. Which helps to explain my being surprised by that system, although it seems even the guys who do this for a living were caught off guard.

Your forecast for the upcoming weeks seems plausible and after that it won't much matter to me as I fly away until mid February...unless you expand your accumulation maps to Asia ;)
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4. Pcroton
1:27 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Little rainy out there this evening Aqua?

Not quite how the models drew it up, huh.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
3. aquak9
1:20 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
FIRST!!!!!

(runs)
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2. Pcroton
1:14 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Here is the NWS long range discussion:

A secondary cold front is expected to move
through the area wednesday with a low pressure system possibly
developing along it near our forecast area. A high pressure system
from the southern rockies will then nose into the region on
thursday. An arctic cold front is forecast to move through the area
later friday.

The next cold
front arrives on wednesday. Here a majority of the guidance shows
more of a positive tilt to the troughing as it nears from the
west-northwest, though the strength of the system is variable from
the gfs to the ec to the nhgem. Again the mid-level wavelength
appears to be too long and the question then becomes can enough
energy be pumped into the backside of the trough to help it sharpen
and cut its wavelength in half...Downstream blocking does not seem
to help this a quicker sharpening. This is far from being etched in
stone and this one would be cold enough to have some snow occur.

After this low departs, high pressure will build into the region.
While temperatures should return closer to normal, this high`s
origin is from the pacific. So unlike last week`s version, this air
mass has more of its coldness (relative to normal) in the upper half
of the troposphere. The next cold front is scheduled for friday.
This one may be moisture starved. But the ensuing high behind this
front is coming from western canada and will bring even colder air
back into the region. Please dont curb your enthusiasm.





NWS new forecast with next to nothing now.


WEDNESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.

THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7741
1. Pcroton
1:10 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
Quoting 314. wxgeek723:


Didn't you say you were treated to a marvelous light show during the power house June 2012 MCS even though it was way down by AC?


Apparently DirectTV is about to cut off TWC due to constant complaints about the reality TV shows, and TWC is pissed and trying to get their viewers to bring it to their congressmen. ROFL.


Yes now that you mention it I recall that.


The TWC...well, I thought I heard a rumor they were starting a second channel and would dedicate one channel to weather programming again.

I grew up somewhat on the TWC in the 80s and early 90s. Once they went dramatic I watched less and less. Once they went programming? Rarely checked in. Only in the case of a huge storm event just to see if there was anything of interest.

I last tuned in when we were about to get our 10-14" storm here earlier in the month. They were running some feature about blizzards. Coulda made a good joke there I suppose. "Probably better than their forecasting anyways..."

Yeah, that will do.




Quoting 316. Hoynieva:
Catching up on posts from yesterday's mess. It wasn't a freezing rain mess in the city as much as it was sleet/snow and some freezing mist. It persisted almost to noon before becoming a mist the rest of the day with temps never reaching as high as predicted. I salted several times and even had to shovel some properties. It was quite the surprise, but then again I hadn't been looking at the blogs the past few days.



Evening Hoy. The threat was evident on the maps and models Thursday evening. The NWS seemed slow to react to the threat...especially Upton. Advisories simply came too late for many.

NWS Mount Holly lead admitted the error.

==
Gary Szatkowski %u200F@GarySzatkowski 10 Jan

Yes, we had winter weather advisories issued, but this is worse than expected. Please be VERY careful out there.

Gary Szatkowski %u200F@GarySzatkowski 10 Jan

Well, I was wrong. Friday AM event is a big deal. What a mess.

==


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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.