Heavy Thunderstorms MidATL/NEast

By: Pcroton , 2:12 PM GMT on August 31, 2014

Share this Blog
0
+

Heavy Thunderstorms MidATL/NEast

August 31, 2014


Heavy Thunderstorms on the way today courtesy of a rich tropical moisture feed and a strong cold front.







Warm day on tap for the region and we will remain warm for the foreseeable future. Temperatures should cool towards the end of the week but will continue to remain at or above normal for this time of year.





As long as we're on the east side of the frontal boundary we will be in for warm, humid, and thundery weather.





Severe threat is forecast to be limited but I wouldn't be surprised to see the forecasts upgraded as the day unfolds.




...Nrn va/md to interior srn new england this afternoon...
Stronger surface heating and modest destabilization is expected
along the e edge of the thicker clouds today from va/md to interior
srn new england. A belt of stronger low-midlevel swly flow /30-40
kt/ will coincide with this zone of destabilization ...And support
the development of a broken band of primarily multicell clusters and
short line segments by early afternoon. Poor lapse rate profiles do
not lend confidence to this forecast...But will maintain a low-end
slight risk for a few damaging gusts based on the potential for
downward momentum transfer with heavy precipitation loading.




Deep moisture will result in heavy downpours. Remember the HPC doesn't do well with detailed QPF so this is just a general threat assessment. Heavier cells will exceed these values.







Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 100 - 50

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

100. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:24 AM GMT on September 04, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
99. originalLT
4:46 AM GMT on September 04, 2014
Getting nice and "cool" out with much lower humidity. Turned the AC off, opened the windows and put on the attic fan to draw in the cool air. Very nice!-- It's 65F outside now at 12:46am.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
98. Pcroton
2:43 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Here's some others from Binghamton:

0547 PM TSTM WND DMG GREENWOOD 42.13N 77.65W
09/02/2014 STEUBEN NY PUBLIC

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

0614 PM TSTM WND DMG HAMMONDSPORT 42.41N 77.22W
09/02/2014 STEUBEN NY 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND WIRES ACROSS ROAD

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG ADDISON 42.11N 77.23W
09/02/2014 STEUBEN NY PUBLIC

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

0726 PM TSTM WND DMG TROY 41.78N 76.79W
09/02/2014 BRADFORD PA PUBLIC

TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG BREESPORT 42.17N 76.73W
09/02/2014 CHEMUNG NY TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON NORTH CHEMUNG ROAD


0755 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE FOSTER 42.15N 76.12W
09/02/2014 E60 MPH TIOGA NY NWS EMPLOYEE


0810 PM TSTM WND DMG ENDWELL 42.12N 76.02W
09/02/2014 BROOME NY AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND LINES DOWN ON WATSON BLVD

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG CHENANGO BRIDGE 42.17N 75.87W
09/02/2014 BROOME NY AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN... ONE ON A TRAILER.

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG AFTON 42.23N 75.53W
09/02/2014 CHENANGO NY 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN


0715 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S ERIN 42.14N 76.67W
09/02/2014 CHEMUNG NY EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO TWO HOMES AND TWO BARNS. MANY TREES DOWN.
MAINLY ALONG FEDERAL ROAD IN BALDWIN. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
97. Pcroton
2:34 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Evening NumberWise and Listener.

A funnel cloud was reported but not touched down in PA.


Here are the reports I was able to find thus far. The entries for MtHolly and State College PA were a bit longer than displayed below...but all similar reports.











Here is the SPC reporting....and as we've discussed frequently on this blog while their criteria for thunderstorm wind damage is supposed to be filtered down to only those reports confirmed as 58MPH or above - clearly they put on every wind damage reports regardless of wind speed these days. Still, if a wind gust comes, and a tree comes down, it is thunderstorm wind damage. Yet it's fishy they state that only a 58mph wind damage report should qualify and then they go ahead and list any and all damage reports anyway.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
96. Pcroton
2:26 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Yeah LT just a light shower coming through.

You did well goofy with the SE Monmouth cell and the I-195 rider afterwards. Both localized. Lucky!


Looks like we got the Hudson Valley and DelMarVa split although those cells that entered southern NJ did hold together in the end after the line consolidated at it's central point. Then the second shot is coming through now with what appears to be rapidly propogating cells eastward - where new cells rapidly fire to the east of the decaying cells - rather than a line of steady cells moving through. Those can tend to be quite strong at times.




Marine advisories persist for the heavier cells...which means the storms are producing wind threat exceeding 39mph. Since no land warnings are present this means winds are below 58mph threshold...but some of those must have gusty winds in them in southern NJ they just have that look to them. There are special weather advisories out for them however...and the same goes for central Delaware.




1023 pm edt tue sep 2 2014

...Strong thunderstorms will affect atlantic...Northern cape
may...Southeastern burlington and southern ocean counties...

At 1020 pm edt...Strong thunderstorms were across atlantic and cape
may counties...Moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Do
not stay in the open nor seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens...Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Very heavy rain will fall from this storm...And will cause water to
pond on roads and fill poor drainage areas. The rain can cause rapid
rises on small streams and creeks.





West Virginia having terrible flooding problems this evening.





The HPC had an MD out for them very early in the day so well done there at least.




MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0340
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 021736Z - 022336Z

SUMMARY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2" COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
95. originalLT
1:47 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Well "P", looks like you'll be getting a little shower anyways, around 10pm or so. Not much though.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
94. goofyrider
1:20 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
0.6 in. This weekend
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2890
93. originalLT
12:55 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
That area of storms that went thru Philly, is taking a SE turn. I guess it will pass South of you, "P". Also the central and northern areas of the line in Pa. appears to be weakening and falling apart.--As you said it will probably do.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
92. listenerVT
12:43 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Quoting 90. Pcroton:

The real action is in central NY extending down into north-central PA.



That stuff WNW of Binghamton NY on radar has rotation to it and probably strong winds.


Yep, they had a tornado warning just south of Oneonta, NY. Any word on damage?

Up here I drove home from work a half hour ago in a deluge; so glad it's just two miles!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
91. NumberWise
12:01 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Hi, P. I've been following along as you post, as usual, and your comments are always interesting. That line of storms is approaching me, but it does seem to be breaking up some even here.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
90. Pcroton
11:49 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
The real action is in central NY extending down into north-central PA.



That stuff WNW of Binghamton NY on radar has rotation to it and probably strong winds.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
89. Pcroton
11:45 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
All convective conducive indicies are dropping off quickly as the sun is setting. Really don't expect anything out of this except showers.

I think the HRRR has it right and has had it right the whole way.


On the other hand Mount Holly disagrees with me strongly.


Special weather statement
national weather service mount holly nj
738 pm edt tue sep 2 2014

njz013-015>019-022-027-paz070-071-104-106-030100-
atlantic nj-camden nj-delaware pa-eastern montgomery pa-gloucester nj-
lower bucks pa-mercer nj-northwestern burlington nj-philadelphia pa-
salem nj-southeastern burlington nj-western monmouth nj-
738 pm edt tue sep 2 2014
...Strong thunderstorms will affect burlington...Camden...Eastern
delaware...Gloucester...Northwestern atlantic...Philadelphia...
Salem...Southeastern bucks...Southeastern montgomery...Southern
mercer and southwestern monmouth counties...
An area of strong thunderstorms was located from montgomery county
pennsylvania to new castle county delaware. This area was moving
east at 35 mph and will affect portions of atlantic...Bucks...
Burlington...Camden...Delaware...Gloucester...Mer cer...
Monmouth...Montgomery...Philadelphia and salem counties by 900 pm.
Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with these strong thunderstorms.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these strong
thunderstorms. Do not stay in the open nor seek shelter under trees
when lightning threatens...Move indoors when a thunderstorm
approaches.
Very heavy rain will fall from these strong thunderstorms...And will
cause water to pond on roads and fill poor drainage areas. The rain
can cause rapid rises on small streams and creeks.




yet I think these things are fading.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
88. Pcroton
11:39 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Some smaller regions of heavier showers in here but overall it's tough to say it's going to fill in and march past the Delaware to the coast.




Was outside..it's 85F, crickets screaming away, but it feels very dry out. Sky is stable.

Modeling continues to break the line up into showers.





Advisories have not been issued down stream and the warnings in southern PA/MD have been discontinued with only a marine warning out for the Chesapeake and Delaware bays - yet their criteria is for 40mph winds which is less than the 58mph winds the land based warnings need.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
87. Pcroton
10:39 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
How frequently do we see this develop on radar and then watch the line ahead briefly surge and then collapse? Pretty much all the time. Note the rising DBZ in the wake of the leading edge.




Plenty of time for them to go through this process and then recycle for NJ but... how many times have we gone through this and watched these things go from highly impressive 90 minutes away to dead by the time they hit eastern NJ? Seems like 99 out of 100 these days!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
86. Pcroton
10:36 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Back up to 60% for the third time now in five days for this particular event.


Zone forecast product
national weather service mount holly nj
630 pm edt tue sep 2 2014

njz013-030800-
western monmouth-
including the cities of...Freehold
630 pm edt tue sep 2 2014

tonight
partly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms this
evening...Then scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of rain 60 percent.



Their handle on this system has been poor from the start.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
85. Pcroton
10:33 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Cluster 1 collapsing but a nice bowed line 2 resurged in strength in the MD-PA border region.





New MD issued down stream...so the SPC believes in it. I'm pessimistic and with good historical reasons.




Mesoscale discussion 1665
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0529 pm cdt tue sep 02 2014

areas affected...Ern pennsylvania...New jersey...Sern new york

concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

valid 022229z - 030000z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...Brief vigorous thunderstorm activity could impact much of
the urban corridor from philadelphia to new york city between now
and 00-02z. The environment seems only marginally conducive...At
best...To severe wind gusts...But occasional strong gusts could
nevertheless produce localized wind damage.

Discussion...The leading edge of convective outflow advancing
northeast of the central appalachians remains a focus for renewed
thunderstorm development in the presence of weak conditional
instability and 30-40 kt southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow.
Although substantive upscale growth of activity currently seems
unlikely...At least a narrow line of storms may continue to evolve
during the next few hours. This activity could impact much of the
philadelphia metropolitan area with cloud to ground
lightning...Brief heavy rain and gusty winds short after 23z...And
perhaps the greater new york city area near/shortly after 01z.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
84. Pcroton
9:49 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
SE PA-N MD storms losing their punch and coverage.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
83. Pcroton
9:34 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
NWS shaky with the forecasting again through the week. Now expanded Saturday's thundershowers to a wide time frame of Friday night through Sunday night. Also went back to lowering temps into the 70s for Monday-Tuesday after having risen them after having had them lower.

Their stretching of the unsettled weather indicates a slower moving front and as we saw all summer long the slower moving fronts tend to get hung up and their promised cooler weather never arrives.

I'll be pulling for the cooldown..but at this distance things don't seem certain. Once we get this current front out of here later tomorrow maybe things will come into better focus.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
82. Pcroton
9:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
SPC did move the 40% threat level further east than they had it before but they still have Philly-NYC and points east in the 10%-40% range.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
81. Pcroton
9:18 PM GMT on September 02, 2014

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND
CENTRAL NEW YORK
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
80. Pcroton
9:17 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Quoting 77. originalLT:

Hey, maybe those T. Storm cells near and just S or SW of Harrisburg will make it to our general area, they are on the right "vector" to do so? The line in Western Pa. looks like it will swing past us to our North?


I think the lineup is good yep. I question if they hold together.... we never really know until the very end but it kind of has that look of the late evening Eastern PA wall of doom transitioning into the dying showers on our doorsteps. An hour of flashes to the west and then...it goes away...

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
79. Pcroton
9:15 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
That cell in NY State is also highly suspect on radar.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
78. Pcroton
9:13 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Whoa. That escalated quickly.




Severe weather statement
national weather service state college pa
501 pm edt tue sep 2 2014

pac023-027-033-035-022130-
/o.Con.Kctp.To.W.0015.000000t0000z-140902t2130z/
cameron pa-clinton pa-centre pa-clearfield pa-
501 pm edt tue sep 2 2014

...A tornado warning remains in effect until 530 pm edt for
southeastern cameron...West central clinton...Northwestern centre and
northern clearfield counties...

At 501 pm edt...Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable
of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located near
rockton...Moving east at 40 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Clearfield...Hyde...Plymptonville...Rockton...Kar thaus...Snow shoe...
Clarence...Moshannon...Pine glen...Lecontes mills...S.B. Elliot state
park and clearfield-lawrence airport.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
77. originalLT
9:12 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Hey, maybe those T. Storm cells near and just S or SW of Harrisburg will make it to our general area, they are on the right "vector" to do so? The line in Western Pa. looks like it will swing past us to our North?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
76. Pcroton
9:11 PM GMT on September 02, 2014



Mesoscale discussion 1663
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0311 pm cdt tue sep 02 2014

areas affected...Ern wv...Nrn/wrn va...Md...Sern pa...Washington dc

concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

valid 022011z - 022145z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...Isolated strong to locally svr wind gusts and occasional
instances of hail will be possible this afternoon across the
mid-atlantic into the cntrl appalachians. Coverage/magnitude of the
svr threat appear insufficient to warrant a ww...But trends continue
to be monitored.

Discussion...Convective trends suggest a slow uptick in tstm
development across the mid-atlantic into the cntrl appalachians this
afternoon...Influenced by large-scale ascent accompanying a
shortwave trough moving through the great lakes and oh valley.
Sfc obs from 20z indicate generally weak low-level convergence
amidst nearly uniform swly flow...With exception to a more
substantial sly component noted over nw va and cntrl md...Invof a
strong tstm located nw of washington dc. Rich boundary layer
moisture amidst strong heating /temperatures in the 80s-low 90s f/
is yielding mlcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg...And combined with
effective shear values estimated at 25-35 kt...The environment
remains favorable for organized tstm clusters and perhaps briefly
organized discrete structures to persist through late afternoon and
early evening. Primary threat will be isolated strong-svr wind
gusts...With a lesser threat for hail. Coverage/magnitude of these
threats is currently expected to remain insufficient for ww
issuance...But convective trends will continue to be monitored.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
75. Pcroton
9:10 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Quoting 74. originalLT:

Hey, "P", I definitely will buy a house there , on the DE. shore, as soon as I win the PowerBall or the Mega Ball lotto's. Hang in there, it will be soon. :)


Sweet. Between the two abodes this will create a permanent lifting zone over central NJ. Although raging thunderstorms and then raging blizzards on a daily basis could become a bit tiresome....it would make things more interesting!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
74. originalLT
9:08 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Hey, "P", I definitely will buy a house there , on the DE. shore, as soon as I win the PowerBall or the Mega Ball lotto's. Hang in there, it will be soon. :)
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
73. Pcroton
8:59 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Here are two more pics looking towards Asbury later that evening as those cells that rode I-195 all evening made it to Belmar. Certainly some neat clouds in there.

Third pic is looking west for the sunset at the same time.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
72. Pcroton
8:57 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Quoting 17. AsburyPk:

Storm brewing just south of Asbury Park. i can hear thunder to the south. Radar says its just a pop-up. Nice to see a storm finally tho.


Here is a look at that cell I took from Tinton Falls looking towards Asbury.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
71. Pcroton
8:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
I think that more stable air in NE PA stretching up into central NY State will progress eastward and could be one of the contributing factors to wiping out any favorable conditions presently over NJ for sustaining stronger thunderstorms.

It looks like it will be a classic case of radars looking good in eastern PA and then collapsing as they move into and through NJ.

Hoping for at least a good steady shower. Anything would be welcome at this point.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
70. Pcroton
8:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Mount Holly agrees the line will collapse as the models show.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO FAR WESTERN PA. DO
NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL MUCH BEFORE 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, BY THAT
TIME, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING AND THERE COULD BE A SMALL
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. THUS, THE LINE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PWATS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, SO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NW OF OUR REGION, COULD SEE A FEW STRONG WINDS
GUSTS WHEN THE FRONT INITIALLY ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST PA BUT THAT
THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WE TRANSITION FROM SURFACE BASED TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE VERY LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT IS RATHER SMALL, MINS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
69. Pcroton
8:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
HRRR isn't impressed beyond the Delaware river for the thunderstorm threat this evening.




Any cumulus that look decent on my horizon have been disintegrating by the time they get overhead here. Also how many times do we see eastern PA look heavy on radar and think we're in good shape for a good hit and then the line just croaks in NJ as it pulls east. That's frequently tied to a sea breeze which of yet has not developed and shows no signs of doing so. What is it about the coastal plain that still kills off storms even if there's no marine inhibitor? Sometimes it's simply the topography of eastern PA/western NJ that allows lifting to continue and then as the bottom drops out the lifting falls apart as well. The other problem can be a dry slot of air that comes in from the Cheasapeake and enters NJ as the storms are coming in from the west. It may not feel like a marine airmass such as a seabreeze front but it still has those origins and as such the same inhibiting factors involved.



NWS is unimpressed with the threat for NJ this evening calling for 30% of scattered showers.

Steve D seems to think we're in for it pretty good. I'm not convinced.



Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather ยท 13m

Thunderstorms are right on track to push into E PA by this evening and rest of the region overnight.
These thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts over 40 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
Almost all thunderstorms will be below severe levels but capable of flash flooding.





Seems like all the good indicies for a good hit of thundershowers exists in NJ - in fact values are all better along the coast at this hour - yet we've seen that before as well with absolutely no pop in the end. Remember the 5,000 cape and -9 lifting index with 2.4" pwats in NJ the day those severe eastern PA storms crossed the Delaware and croaked? Well... it happens.









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
68. Pcroton
7:56 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
SPC also realigned the SLGT category and associated wind potential. Looks like it is a mirror of the MD outline. Can't say I've ever seen that before where an MD is exactly the same outline as an outlook category but there it is.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
67. Pcroton
7:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
This air quality alert, at least for my area of central NJ (perhaps in the inner cities its necessary) seems unwarranted. Our air is just fine. It's hot but I feel no problems with the air itself.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
66. Pcroton
7:53 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
SPC seems to believe the line will fill in along the front.




Mesoscale discussion 1662
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0125 pm cdt tue sep 02 2014

areas affected...Portions of wrn and central pa/ny

concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

valid 021825z - 022030z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...Thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon ahead of
a cold front. Broken lines of storms will track ewd across ny/pa
into the evening hours and may produce sporadic strong/locally
damaging wind gusts.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms were increasing ahead of the
ewd advancing sfc cold front from the lakes erie and ontario
vicinity swd into nw pa/ern ohio. As temperatures warm through the
80s across ny/pa ahead of this feature...Modest destabilization will
continue with mlcape values currently around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep
layer effective shear will be quite strong across the
region...Upwards of 40 kt...And will allow for fast moving line
segments. While poor lapse rates and modest instability will limit
vigorous updrafts...Fast storm motion and pw values aoa 1.5 inches
may allow for sporadic strong/damaging wind gusts...Especially where
greater heating occurs in broken cloudiness. Trends will be
monitored for potential watch issuance later this afternoon.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
65. Pcroton
7:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
One thing I like about the Stamford shields is that where there's a place that air can sink there is an adjacent place where air can rise and over the recent years that sure has seemed to be central NJ when it comes to snow storms!

Now only if we can develop a shield over Delaware so I can get all the rising air and heavy weather. I wonder if LT is interested in buying a beach house somewhere on the Delaware coastline!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
64. Pcroton
7:49 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Blocking out in the far Atlantic was responsible for most of the early summer frontal stalls. A large low west of France just refused to budge and it forced the high to be displaced in a way that forbid the fronts from steaming on through the coastal plain. Later in the summer the negative NAO took over and that blocking also prevented frontal systems from zipping eastward - and also the upper level energy associated with these systems was drawn northward into southern Canada and as a result our support further south would wane as the front slowed and died off.


94F here in Tinton Falls NJ. Unpleasant but it's not a death sentence either. Reading around twitter you'd think we're on a rocket to Venus and life is ending as we know it. On the other side of twitter the ice age folks are all trumpeting that it's been a cold summer because it's hot today. I'm not sure what to make of all of this and I've already ranted off the hook about it all so we'll just leave that be for what it all is: RIDICULOUS!!!


Meanwhile some stronger storms formed a line in eastern Mass this afternoon - generally unpredicted and unmodeled.

Isolated cells in northern NJ and westchester quickly died as they reached the Stamford dome.

We have some very low topped cumulus around here but nothing showing signs of popping.

Our frontal system is in western PA/NY and it too is hardly impressive so I don't think we can really ascertain what to expect later this evening in the region. Do we get a solid but broken line forming like the earlier HRRR showed? Do we just get these isolated pop ups? Perhaps we get the full break with a broken like in the Hudson Valley and another broken line in the DelMarVa leaving the philly-nyc area dead.

Either way this 72 hour event turned out to be absolutely NOTHING in comparison to early and even close range forecasting. Aside from the isolated cells, which due to the high PWats did develop quite the heavy rain to those who were lucky enough (or perhaps unlucky) to receive them, there was nothing to really discuss here....except the fact that nothing really happened.

A show about nothing? Interesting how that meme keeps popping up well after the fact. Suitable in many ways.

Well, enough about the musings, let's hope for a good thundershower all around. The land is parched here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
63. originalLT
4:06 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Yeah, zotty, I am familiar with that Wykagyl Dome, While I was there from 1978-1984. Now I have the Stamford CT. Dome! Ha Ha!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
62. zotty
3:39 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Quoting 61. Pcroton:



I wondered about this yesterday...how all this heat and humidity would be swept away by a fizzling frontal boundary. Well I guess my pessimism wasn't misguided there, unfortunately.

84F at 10am. Hoping we do at least get to look back at today and say "not again until late next spring".






Fizzling is a good word... it seems all the fronts have evaporated as they approached those menacing 2000'-4000' peaks of the Appalachians.

That said, a pretty good thunderstorm penetrated the Wykagyl Dome on Sunday- lightning struck the tennis shack with a half a dozen people in it. They said there were two zaps, everyones' hair stood up, the TV fizzled and then popped, and then there was a gigantic BOOOOOM! Everyone is fine. But other than that, it seems we've had more dry fronts than wet ones. I wonder what causes that?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
61. Pcroton
2:04 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Quoting 60. originalLT:

"P" , to put it simply, "Perception" is not often "Reality".


This is true and we are all often caught up in it. It's truely one of our biggest faults as people.


Well, the NWS has backed off on any cooldowns now. Unfortunate.

My forecast is now mid to upper 80s through Saturday and then 80F Sunday onward. If this is to hold true then we're basically looking at a week of above normal temps reverting to seasonal norms after the weekend frontal system.

This would knock the modeling record back down to 2-12 for the significant cooldowns since June began. I'm praying we sneak out a victory there and go 3-11 for the summer but it's starting to fall apart. At least we'll be out of the uncomfortable weather we've been having....but it no longer looks like that's going to happen tonight and the rest of the week will remain warm and humid and it's now up to Saturday to produce.

I wondered about this yesterday...how all this heat and humidity would be swept away by a fizzling frontal boundary. Well I guess my pessimism wasn't misguided there, unfortunately.

84F at 10am. Hoping we do at least get to look back at today and say "not again until late next spring".



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
60. originalLT
12:52 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
"P" , to put it simply, "Perception" is not often "Reality".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
59. Pcroton
12:08 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Just look at the Long Island precip anomalies over 90 days and what that one 3 hour period did to it.




So are we to assume that Islip Long Island had a wet summer?
Or can we dig deeper and say it was a dry summer because...

The average precipitation over 2,157 hours (89 days, 9 hours) it was dry...
For 3 hours it was a deluge.


So many reasons why "average" is such a moot point and a poor indicator for what is going on out there. I guess it's too difficult to make a point or have a discussion without setting a zero point though. Not sure how or if ever that could be resolved in a way to where if it's a tenth of a degree below normal we're able to accept it wasn't actually below normal.

*shrug*

On that note....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
58. Pcroton
12:04 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Speaking of rantings and ravings over averages and what they mean. Long Island has had a very dry summer but because of that one scar of precip crossing Islip... the record will show them as ABOVE normal precipitation.

Are you really above normal precipitation if you are below normal for 89 days but then 1 day you get hammered?

It shows the flaws in using averages to make a point.

We saw this in Maine with Lawson chiming in during Spring... was it May maybe... it rained like 24 days out of the month but he was quite below normal in actual precipitation.

So the average fellow would accept that month as a very rainy month but in reality they were dry.

The proper use of perception..............is a difficult skill to educate.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
57. Pcroton
12:02 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Quoting 55. NJTom:

We actually saw a full inch of rain here in Morris County on Saturday afternoon. I'd forgotten what the stuff looks like - quite likely our heaviest downpour for the Most Normal Summer On Record :-)


LOL! I think the fall version of failed buzzword hysteria should be "AVERAGE". Summer's claim can be "WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS".


Yeah you certainly have been shafted by the rainfall. The large plus/minus precipitation anomalies across the region slapped right next to each other is impressive. They do frequently exist but it seems the number of them this summer is very high. Many large town to town discrepancices are normal - but - when it's every other town all throughout the region it raises an eyebrow.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
56. Pcroton
11:57 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
Those 500mb heights aren't really impressive and the GFS has also backed off on the temperatures some. Keep in mind the GFS has been around 10F too cold at night all summer long and the NWS frequently ignores it's outputs.

We will see a good cooldown this weekend into early next week but I'm having my doubts on it's intensity and lasting power. I still think we need to get beyond this front that's washing out before we get a better look as it will certainly play into what happens downstream (as things always do).






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
55. NJTom
11:56 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
We actually saw a full inch of rain here in Morris County on Saturday afternoon. I'd forgotten what the stuff looks like - quite likely our heaviest downpour for the Most Normal Summer On Record :-)
Member Since: December 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
54. Pcroton
11:56 AM GMT on September 02, 2014




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
53. Pcroton
11:55 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
In keeping with the summer theme it appears the models have been backing off some on the intensity of the weekend cool down.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
52. Pcroton
11:47 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
HWO's echo the potential for a heavy downpour IF a cell moves into your area.


THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY RESULT IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND A VERY LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN URBANIZED AREAS.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
51. Pcroton
11:44 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
Amplification is rather low with this system and I suppose that combined with the feature around Maine/Nova Scotia are going to prevent the front from moving quickly through the coasts and without any real upper low support it's going to collapse.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388
50. Pcroton
11:41 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
Dewpoints followed by PWATS:

Pwats aren't as high as yesterday but still the NYC southward region could see a heavy downpour if one were to come through. yet given the timing of some of the models these values may drop before the convection reaches some of us.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11388

Viewing: 100 - 50

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.