Features to Watch - MidATL/NEast

By: Pcroton , 11:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2014

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August 22, 2014

Features to Watch


Quasi-Stationary Front

A summer favorite appears to have been the west to east stationary frontal systems that move into a region, stall while disturbances move along them, then retreat back out of the region. Their movements, timing, and location of stalling can all be difficult to predict and we saw that yet again this past week. The feature is once again expected to retreat southward through the next several days but not before allowing several disturbances to ride along it.









Onshore Flow

A setup we saw back in June has come back as well in the form of several days of persistent onshore flow. As our frontal boundary retreats back southward the Canadian based high pressure system will build back into the region.



As before in the long range this feature was aggressively modeled and cold weather was expected to reach far inland. Models have backed off in recent days in the strength of this feature and also in the wind direction which is more parallel to the coast than previous runs that had it coming in perpendicular. Inland effects will likely be mitigated to normal temperatures while coastal regions should enjoy a few degrees below the norm.







Return of Warmth

While we've been blessed with near normal temperatures all summer long we did see a little warmup in the Mid-Atlantic this past week and after our weekend onshore flow a second bout of warmth will return. As our high pressure feature sags to the south and east our wind will snap around to the south west ushering in warm air until our cold front comes through later in the week to shut it off and also likely send 96L out to sea.





Blockage

Atlantic and North American atmospheric blocking has been a continued problem for the computer models and as such forecasters alike. Models are programmed to predict cyclongenesis, to develop areas of disturbed weather, and move them forward. Predicting when, where, and which piece of a blocked pattern gives way first and which secondary piece fills the void of the first is an impossibility. This leads to wildly changing forecasts in the mid and long term periods.

It is one of the chief reasons why we have seen a week of wet weather suddenly flip to a week of dry weather. Why we have seen a forecast of very cold temps turn into warm temps. Why we have seen a predicted warm up remain normal instead. We have seen a relaxation of this feature which has allowed our weather to progress forward. There is open debate as to whether or not we may return to this pattern in the wake of 96L. As has been the case all summer long I wouldn't trust any long range forecasting that attempts to predict outside of seasonal expectations. We've seen it flop far too often be it calling for cold or hot weather or wet or dry weather to invade and persist. If we think back we're running at around 20% success there.








96L

Another tropical disturbance is being monitored for development. The models have struggled greatly with the intensification of and the potential track of this feature and that's likely to continue. How this feature plays into the Atlantic weather pattern could have significant consequences down the line. In particular depending on the path of this disturbance and it's strength we could see an enhancement or waning of the Atlantic blocking feature. Where the blocking index ends up will have impacts on how the weather pattern proceeds as we head to and into early September.







End of the Month Cold Front

What had been modeled aggressively for several days has backed off considerably yet what remains still appears to be a significant widespread cool down courtesy of a strong cold front. This has become a tired theme all summer long where we have seen a cold air intrusion in the long term only to see it moderate as we near the event. This particular event will be the 12th such feature to invade the area. So far only 2 of the events actually produced significant cooling effects.

While previous cool downs had more of a regional feel to them this one appears to be more far reaching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic and North East. As we are heading into September this would be of no surprise. It's time for that to begin.





To NAO or not to NAO

Another feature that's been a thorn in forecasters side for approximately a year now has been the NAO. Frequently forecasted to go and remain strongly negative this index has had a mind of it's own as is the case with all weather and nature we pretend we control because we can model it on a computer and plot it on a two dimensional graph.

We have seen blocking occur across the Atlantic and North America over the past several weeks which has cause an absolute nightmare for forecasters predicting beyond 48 hours. There has been a recent relaxation of this feature which has produced our recent warmer days outside of those areas experiencing strong onshore flow or persistent rainfall.



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39. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:12 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
38. NumberWise
2:57 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
I, too, have been enjoying this late summer weather.

Well, we expected a quiet week with you away, Pcroton, but where is tlawson? New baby? New House? Both?
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
37. NEwxguy
3:25 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
Love this weather,cool and refreshing.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
36. originalLT
1:15 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
Got down to 53F last night! Great sleeping weather. Should be a near perfect day today, with a high of 75-80F under mostly sunny skies and low humidity. Light N wind.--Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
35. LansdaleTim
5:52 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Quoting 28. originalLT:

Hi "P" and everyone. Back from my "Florida Trip" . The drive to and from was fine(except for terrible traffic just SW of Wash. D.C. on I95 between Wash. and Fredricksburg Va. Don't travel on that stretch of road , if you can avoid it. Construction there and terribly slow. More later, off to do some work. Hope your trip is going well.


LG I know that stretch between DC and Fredericksburg well. Used to live down there. I always try to take Rte 1 or 15 to avoid it. It's slow at 3 am there
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34. NEwxguy
12:39 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Actually had some thunder last evening,showers hung around here in the east longer than I expected,but needed the nice easy rain.little over .25 inches.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
33. PhillySnow
11:08 AM GMT on August 28, 2014
Hi everyone!

It's been beautiful here, even though on the warm side. Looks like humid and some rain on Sunday, right in the middle of our camping trip. Could be stormy also, which I love especially when I'm outside! Will huddle somewhere.

Hope your trip is going well, P!
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32. listenerVT
6:08 AM GMT on August 28, 2014
Welcome back, LT!

Traveling Mercies, P!

We've had three days of warm weather, with some relief that began this evening. The temp seems to hang right on the dew point at night. Is there anything in particular that causes that? My DH is a sailor and tonight he finally got some great wind on the Lake for the races. (He did well, as usual.) It'll be cool on Thursday (high of 72F) but that's warmer than the 67F predicted just a few days ago. May hit 80F on Sunday, with rain.
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31. NEwxguy
8:40 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
showers starting to pop in western New england,but also a group of showers strengthening in central Mass, really didn't look like anything was going to happen,but heat of the day must have fired things up.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
30. zotty
7:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Crickets have taken over P's blog. Never thought I would see that...

Today is a real summer day. Thank goodness it will be gone tomorrow and back to our happily seasonal pattern...
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29. goofyrider
10:16 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
Safe trip P
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28. originalLT
1:47 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
Hi "P" and everyone. Back from my "Florida Trip" . The drive to and from was fine(except for terrible traffic just SW of Wash. D.C. on I95 between Wash. and Fredricksburg Va. Don't travel on that stretch of road , if you can avoid it. Construction there and terribly slow. More later, off to do some work. Hope your trip is going well.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
27. VR46L
8:28 AM GMT on August 25, 2014
Thanks , Have less spare time to mess around on the internet but try to make it over at some stage . Cris will probably impact North of Ireland and Scotland ,as a bit of gusty weather but its not like we are not used to that ...seems to be making a break for ocean now . haven't looked at 97L yet
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26. jerseycityjoan
10:35 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
"I'm on the road this coming week so my visits will be sparse if at all."

I hope the weather is good wherever you are going. Our week ahead looks like it will be close to average, like so many other weeks, which is probably just as well.

I am not thrilled at the thought that we'll be back to high 80s by Wednesday, but I know I cannot complain. We got off easy this summer with no heat waves at all, none.

I do not know where the year went. We are now coming up on October and November, months in which I am quite happy to have above-average temperatures and as many "no coat" days as I can get.
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25. Pcroton
9:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Trying to pack any observations I have into this evening before I'm out of here.

Latest GFS run seemingly supporting suspicions that the end of the month cold front is falling apart. Disturbance in the central plains develops and hangs the front up and then that disturbance rides along the hung up front into our region. Then it repeats itself. This also keeps us warm. Again nothing significant mind you but it's late summer and it's going to continue to stay warm. Of course at the tail end of the run, not included below, another strong crushing cold front is modeled. As will now be the case 10 out of the 12 times the models have done that this summer I would be suspicious of that one panning out as well.

Hopefully things change but the excitement about a potentially significant month end cool down is long gone now. Throw it on the short list of things that this summer brought. Average highs. Cool lows due to low dewpoints (probably the #1 thing that stands out to me). Quasi-stationary fronts that have wandered north and south through the Mid-Atlantic causing terrible forecasting at times. And now this continued cold snap threats on models being absolutely nothing of note when we get there.

Kind of reminds me of a couple of winters ago when we kept seeing storms and then we'd get close and the phases would be off. Models would hint at a cold snap and a storm and we'd get close and it'd be a ghost storm and we'd stay warm.




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24. Pcroton
9:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Meanwhile the EPac continues to churn them out. Whatever has been going on in the Pacific this summer sure is forboding for our winter. When a sub-tropical jet decides to tap those waters we could have one heck of a storm on our hands if/when we get the proper polar phasing.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
23. Pcroton
5:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Yeah I agree with you. Good to see you around.



82F and rising. Had some variable wind gusts. A couple from the East and a couple from the North West. Guessing they may be thermally initiated.

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22. VR46L
12:48 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Hiya P !

looks to me like this one is going to sea ...Nearly got killed on the main on Friday night for saying the GFS was sending it out to sea as early as 42 hrs out . I remembered your advice that within 72 hrs ,main models should be accurate . I have to say the GFS has done better than most on this system ... The HWRf was disappointing and the EURO saw it really quick but dropped it up to a couple of days ago
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21. Pcroton
12:14 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Here are the modeled high temps for today. Operational models have been on the cool side recently and today they're banking on more strong onshore flow. Right now the wind is quite relaxed so I think outside of any sea breezes we're not under the influences that drove yesterday's cooler weather and I think we'll be warmer.

As much as the RAP guidance is seemingly always over-amplifed as too warm today might be a day to lean more towards it but not exactly to it. I think it's going to be a warm day.







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20. Pcroton
12:01 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 3. NEwxguy:

Nice blog "P", its been a real tough summer to forecast. Models keep changing,sometimes daily.Anytime blocking occurs,models don't seem to have the ability to predict systems as they move along the stalled fronts. I can't remember when we ever had a front,just come sweeping through and move out into the Atlantic. Every front has come through the northeast and get hung up somewhere along the midatlantic. It'll be interesting to see what happens with 96L,I'm staying away from the models right now,until we have a good center to lock onto and even then,not going to trust long range forecasts.


Quoting this again because....each new model run seems to point less and less to a sharp NW to SE advancing front motoring right out to sea and the solutions become more and more zonal with time. Now the front is modeled more in a WSW to ENE direction when it reaches the Mid-Atlantic. That means it's getting hung up as we've seen time and again either being slowed by blocking out in the Atlantic or an unforseen disturbance forming along the south/west portion of the front preventing it from sweeping through.

I don't think we're going to have blocking or a reinforcing of the negative nao by the tropical cyclone. Therefore I'd lean more towards a central plains-tennesee valley low pressure disturbance forming along the frontal boundary and thus keeping it in check.

If that happens we'll then be back where we started and as we've seen most of this summer the fronts wash out and slow down and then frequently retrograde back northward. Then the idea of a cool down is replaced with normal temps. I think this may be in the cards yet again. A resumption of slightly warm days combined with slighly cool nights.

So for our end of the month super front I now think that story is starting to fade away and we may end up with what we've seen 9 out of the past 11 times we first saw a strong sharp front in the long range modeling only to end up with these more zonally oriented slow movers that pass through and then retrograde back into the region.

As such 9 of the 11 times we never saw significant cool weather come in. I was hoping this one would be our third instance in twelve tries but it's starting to look otherwise.

We've always seen the strong long range modeling moderate as we near but this one held on as stronger for a longer time so I thought maybe there was something to it. Doesn't appear as likely anymore.

Can anyone see why I went off the deep end over those private forecast "WELL BELOW NORMAL" temperatures that never came to be and still don't appear to be coming? Outside of a couple of cooler days either behind a cold front (heaven forbid it's allowed to cool down behind a cold front anymore without it proving some asinine point) or onshore flow by a short lived high pressure system (again now onshore flow is considered some massive cold weather pattern?) and my favorite a cloudy or rainy day coming in cool (now thats used to verify a seasonal forecast).

Well...







Can this change? OF COURSE! It's the weather. Without rehashing the previous two blogs I just want to point out how this underscores the absurdity of the non-NOAA forecasting we've seen going on all summer long. I say non-NOAA because the NWS to their absolute credit, and you guys know how I can't stand them, never bought into model hysteria over the potential cold snaps. It's the others that did it and are still doing it even today.
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19. Pcroton
11:38 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 14. Climate175:

When do you see the last thump of summer coming?


Could be this week. We will have to see how the NAO reacts to the passing cyclone and also how strong (if strong) this cold front ends up and if that starts a new pattern of fronts dropping in. Some say they think that we will begin fall warm before flipping a switch to cold.

Remember last year we had a cool August/Sept and then the first two weeks of October warmed into the 80F range before dumping around mid month to fall weather.



Quoting 13. Climate175:

Hey Pcroton, some of the trees in the DMV have been changing color early, I am seeing some trees change to yellows and oranges, not sure if their stressed but they look healthy, have your trees been changing colors? Could this be a sign of a bad winter? Lot's of daddy-long-legs are coming into my house and spiders, there is a weather lore that says lots of spiders coming into your house could mean a bad winter. What are your primary thoughts on this winter?


Can't tie it to any winter weather predictions as trees don't feel the future they feel the current weather. We've had some cooler nights this summer - in fact that's really the standout in terms of weather this summer - and it could be that these shrubs, flowers, and trees are reacting to that more than anything. Something else that can cause it is drier weather and that can also make trees appear sickly. Deluges may make the precipitation record look good but trees that go through three weeks of dry weather aren't really helped by an afternoon thrashing of flash floods.

Disease is absolutely another situation and my maples all summer long - all neighborhood wide - have been attacked by something. We've had leaf loss all summer and the leaves come down black or washed out green with black dots all over them. I recall this happening about 8 years ago or so. It never damaged the trees themselves just the foliage.

We also have to understand that insects and disease react to weather and this summer has not seen oppressive heat nor high humidity and has also featured some cooler nights. This may be the perfect medium for specific diseases/insects to thrive and that could also be what we're seeing.

Other things that can do local trees/plants in are herbicides. Lawn maintence can sometimes unwittlingly lead to tree or shrub death. Especially commerical grade or municipalities spraying.

Lastly the past winter definitely did some plants and trees in but I've also noticed some made it through the Spring and early Summer only to suddenly go belly up. Some plants/trees suffer a shock but they don't go belly up for some time. The initial shock did them in but you don't see the result right away.

So many variables to think about there.



As to winter itself? Sure seems like all the signs are there for at the very least a repeat of last season. Although each season has a quirk of it's own storm track wise and those near the storm track will perceive the winter as quite different from last. Most of the people I trust to talk about long range weather are all on board with another strong to severe winter.

As I felt last fall I thought we'd at least be in for a classic winter...as in there'd be no disappointments. Do we see the strange central Mid-Atlantic snowfall blastings like last year? No telling that. Just can't do it.

Last season starting around now we started to see a pretty wide reaching finger of cold air stretch from just east of the Yukon pointing right towards the Great Lakes and North East. Haven't seen it yet so there's one thing that's different.

Last season the North Pacific featured a large bowling ball of above normal SSTs. As of now that's now the reverse - a large area of below normal SSTs surrounded by a ring of the previously warm SSTs.

So there are differences...and it's just too early to really know what's coming our way. October is usually a good month to start touching on the subject because we already can see winter evolving over the northern half of Canada and also Siberia and we can see where the dominant upper low (polar vortex) is setting up. Is it over North America or is it over Siberia... do we have that long reaching finger of cold air like last season? As we get closer and these features begin to establish themselves we'll talk about it more and more.

For now nothing's really shown up except for some late summer cold fronts and as we know they've all been grossly overmodeled and thus oversold by the non-NWS community. Those fronts are not enough to make a call on a pattern this far out.
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18. Pcroton
11:23 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
Looks like your common developing tropical storm and should easily make hurricane status. Always a little tricky predicting the track of a cyclone that will find itself in light steering currents at some point - which looks to be around Thursday - but the consensus ships it out to sea. Maybe some unsettled weather along the North Carolina coast? Perhaps Bermuda has to keep an eye on a trailing area of thunderstorms?





One thing this was being watch for was if it were to shoot up into the north west Atlantic and strengthen the NAO back to strongly negative. It doesn't appear likely at this time.





As we know those calling for well below normal temperatures, again and endlessly and repeatedly, were banking on this system paralleling the coast and shooting up into the Canadian Maritimes where it would combine with the upper level low pressure energy up there and strengthen the negative NAO. It seemed unlikely then and it seems unlikely now.


Our attention will therefore turn to the frontal system coming through later in the week for cool weather. In the meantime? Enjoy a week of summer while we still can...not that I am a fan of that, I certainly am ready for cold weather, but I know most people want more summer - so enjoy!

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17. Pcroton
11:16 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
So we now have a tropical storm. 12Z models today should be good ones.



TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
620 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 MPH...75 KM/H WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.


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16. Pcroton
11:15 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
Our warmup is tied to the very high pressure system that blessed us with cooler onshore flow the past day. As the winds return to the SW it will usher in some of that very warm weather from the south east. Then our cold front will swing through putting an end to the above normal temperatures and will also serve to send the tropical cyclone out to sea.



I added this little section to the blog header...in case you think you're going nuts and did not see it the first time...you hadn't! Not sure why I did not include it in the first place since it basically drove the last two blog conversations. I guess I'm the one going nuts! I'm out tomorrow morning. Depending on what I need to do I will be back in town either Thursday or the following Tuesday. Not sure if stop #2 will be made for the labor day weekend.

I'll check in if anything of interest is going on or if the weather laid out changes much from what we've discussed. Won't have my home computer or links though.
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15. Pcroton
11:09 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
Good Morning. After a week of mid 80s last week and a couple of cool days Friday-Saturday... the warmth is returning as discussed in the previous blog.


ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MONDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

FRIDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
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14. Climate175
1:31 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
When do you see the last thump of summer coming?
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4801
13. Climate175
1:25 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
Hey Pcroton, some of the trees in the DMV have been changing color early, I am seeing some trees change to yellows and oranges, not sure if their stressed but they look healthy, have your trees been changing colors? Could this be a sign of a bad winter? Lot's of daddy-long-legs are coming into my house and spiders, there is a weather lore that says lots of spiders coming into your house could mean a bad winter. What are your primary thoughts on this winter?
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4801
12. Pcroton
11:16 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 8. jrzyshore:

Hello All,

Just one of the SNOW JUNKIES here checking in, in the middle of this beautifully cool summer we're

having. Started hearing a little about this tropical disturbance and wanted to see if PC had a thought on

it.....Models all over the place ????

Gee , sounds a lot like last winter !!!! I don't like the center line on that mess of models .


I'll be more than happy when we're back to talking winter storms.

Today was a nice cooler day...and after a week of mid 80s again I'll take it. We are back to a warm week next week. Right around average or perhaps a bit above...but nothing significant. Really don't see any weather around until the end of the week when our front comes in. Then we hope it has the intensity it's been modeled to although that did back off considerably from earlier runs. I want cold air.
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11. Pcroton
11:12 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
GFS has it rounding the bend and heading out and our cold front coming in as planned. Euro brings the cold front in a little later but shoots #4 out to sea without even a threat to NC. I honestly don't believe in any coastal threat outside of Cape Hatteras but we are early in the game here. Should be able to eliminate a number of threats by tomorrow's 12Z runs.






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10. Pcroton
11:01 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 7. NumberWise:

It looks like a quiet week weather wise for the Northeast, so I guess you chose a good time to be MIA. I'll miss your commentary, though, even if there isn't exciting weather about which to comment!



Thanks and yeah we seem to be in a weather desert until at least next weekend (if somehow Td4 plays in) and/or if we were to get that strong cold front the models were hinting about.

Should be quiet through Friday.
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9. Pcroton
11:00 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
It is now TD 4. As with many tropical disturbances they just need to gain latitude from PR or DR and then they develop the surface circulation and are classified.

Currently the NHC has it generally following the 12Z GFS run from earlier today which brings it near Cape Hatteras on Friday.

Tomorrow's models should do a lot better with the system. Not sure why folks want it to or think it could affect our coastlines at this time. Haven't really had time to check things out.

Sounds like from the start they're not too confident in the long range.






The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles.



Current 18z models

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8. jrzyshore
10:35 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Hello All,

Just one of the SNOW JUNKIES here checking in, in the middle of this beautifully cool summer we're

having. Started hearing a little about this tropical disturbance and wanted to see if PC had a thought on

it.....Models all over the place ????

Gee , sounds a lot like last winter !!!! I don't like the center line on that mess of models .
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 218
7. NumberWise
7:45 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
It looks like a quiet week weather wise for the Northeast, so I guess you chose a good time to be MIA. I'll miss your commentary, though, even if there isn't exciting weather about which to comment!
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6. Pcroton
7:41 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Afternoon. Pretty busy and will be MIA most of the week.

Had 85/65 splits yesterday. Today is nicer at 76F and mostly cloudy - some sprinkles and showers about.


As to models and 96L and what it all means well...there's nothing to trust at this point worth mentioning.

I haven't been following but apparently there's some buzz that it could come right up the coast. Not worth following up on at this stage as a quick glance at the 12Z GFS shows it nearly NC and then heading NE out to sea.

I'm sure models are all over the place at this stage.

Here's Steve's take. Sounds like all or nothing?




Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather ยท 3h

Basically the video discusses what we really have here around the Bahamas.

Plus why the models are all over the place with any potential impact.

I use real observations and point out the disturbance that could make next weekend really nice or a complete wash out.




Much ado about nothing if every idea is a potential solution.
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5. goofyrider
7:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
Total above 0.61 in during this mornings squall line.
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4. wxgeek723
5:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
Had a nice downpour at around 4:30 am. No lightning or thunder.
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3. NEwxguy
12:45 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
Nice blog "P", its been a real tough summer to forecast. Models keep changing,sometimes daily.Anytime blocking occurs,models don't seem to have the ability to predict systems as they move along the stalled fronts. I can't remember when we ever had a front,just come sweeping through and move out into the Atlantic. Every front has come through the northeast and get hung up somewhere along the midatlantic. It'll be interesting to see what happens with 96L,I'm staying away from the models right now,until we have a good center to lock onto and even then,not going to trust long range forecasts.
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2. Pcroton
12:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2014


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1. Pcroton
12:01 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
Good Morning.

Looks like my storm intuition was way off last night. We had a decent hit of light to moderate rain and a whole lot of bright flashes and crackling rumbles of thunder. Never could make out an actual strike to the ground I think it was primarily in the clouds.


Quoting 118. wxgeek723:





Quoting 116. goofyrider:

Lightning and thunder to the NW.




Should have put some thought into the fact that when we have the north to south moving storms they tend to have a better shot at mixing out the marine layer and rolling in anyway. Although a couple of times earlier this year even that faulted.

Woke up to watch the lightning some but when it was clear I wasn't going to see any bolts I went back to sleep.

Humid this morning and another warm late summer day on the way.

I'm on the road this coming week so my visits will be sparse if at all.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.