MidATL-NEast WX - August 17-24

By: Pcroton , 12:13 PM GMT on August 17, 2014

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August 17, 2014


Our weak frontal boundary will push southward through the region and stall in the central Mid-Atlantic. We can already see the first weather disturbance to affect the region pushing into the southern Ohio Valley getting ready to ride along this front.





Several disturbances will ride west to east along this boundary bringing heavy rains to the southern and central Mid-Atlantic regions while further north stays relatively dry. We've seen this setup occur in June and where exactly this line between heavy rainfall and next to nothing had been a difficult one to peg at the longer range. Until we know exactly where the front will stall we won't quite have that worked out. As is the natural process where we see this rainfall set up we will also see cooler temperatures prevail.





Later in the week a small disturbance could enter the Upper Mid-Atlantic and New England from the Great Lakes bringing with it some scattered showers and thunderstorms.





Once again due to a training precipitation environment some very heavy rainfall totals are expected. These seem to be confined to the central and southern Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week the more northerly disturbance will bring some rainfall to the North East.





As we head into next weekend a slow moving area of high pressure in southern Canada may place the region in an onshore flow which could keep temperatures down near the coasts. Just how strong this flow develops and how far inland it pushses is something we can't really know until later in the week. In the past the GFS model was just too bold on these high pressure winds and too cold with the long range temperatures and as we neared the event and more guidance came into focus we'd see the forecasted cool temps come up more while further inland saw their forecasts drop the idea all together as it came clear the winds wouldn't be pushing so far into the region. So it is something we will watch for as the week progresses and when things become clear we will sort them out.







Either way I wouldn't expect any temperatures to exceed a window of slightly below to slightly above accepted normals over the next ten days. It is going to be tied to just how much of an onshore flow develops and of course where rainfall occurs. There will be some isolated regions of heavier downpours or strong marine flow where you could be quite cool and also the Northern New England coast, as being closer to the features at play could see stronger effects, but there isn't anything historic coming our way to be sure.

We're talking about regional influences when it comes to our late August and early September temperatures. Rainfall and onshore/offshore wind flow will control it as we are not under some sort of deep polar influence that is being tapped by troughs or ridges and being pumped into the region.

As we can see below in the North American temps at 7am Aug 17 there is no deep polar cold air intrusion that is being tapped or will be tapped in the near term. It's all going to be of regional influences and I think it is important to know the difference especially admist the disingenuous efforts of several agenda driven folks to attempt to prove that we have been under or visited by a deep arctic airmass on and off all summer long.





The biggest problem with the large scale polar pattern idea is that it's hard to believe as such when you see warm temperatures all through central Canada and a small regional area of cool weather behind a cool front that had crossed the North East. Here are the temperatures across North America at 7am July 17th the day after the first cold front actually swept the region after we had seen four prior alarms go belly up. This was billed as the fifth widespread large scale polar outbreak when in fact it was merely cooler temps behind the first strong cold front to finally clear the coasts.




Here is an example of a large scale polar airmass being tapped. The actual temperatures below are not important but the structure of the airmass is what drives this conversation. Note how the above it's quite warm through central Canada in the wake of the system but below you have a strong uniform widespread pool of cold air. Note how above you have the regional influence around the Great Lakes versus the large scale pattern influence below. This is the difference between the regional effects we've experienced this summer versus the large scale effects some have tried to play it off as.



There is a distinct difference in the thermal contours (isotherms). To keep reading over and over from the same well known individuals that we're witnessing the below and not the above has really struck a nerve recently. Their large following has also been misled into parroting the same comments and it's just not the right thing to do. I don't like hype of any kind from any side.

To push people to accept a weather condition that simply does not exist with the intent to prove an agenda or even worse to prove a long range forecast for the desire to be correct and applauded for such is just disgraceful to me. There is no place for this in weather but unfortunately our great hobby has become a playground for folks to battle it out over their egos and their opinions on our climate's future.

We're the ones who pay with misinformation. While I don't want to turn into a vigilante as we saw how the snow map vigilantes and polar vortex vigilantes have declared war on hobbyists and bloggers alike I still have felt the need to speak up in difference to the commentary that continues to posion our larger community and weather sources.




As a parting comment on temperatures it is important to remember where we are. It is the second half of August and it's quite normal to see your low temperatures drop and cool rainy days develop. Unfortunately there's been a lot of information on the web that has been pushing our summer cool downs as much greater events than they truly are so I have spent some extra time there trying to show how what we are experiencing is not some great uncommon event. In fact it has come to light more and more that what we've seen this summer is not much different than what we saw in 2009, 2006, 2004, and 2002. It just makes me wonder more so why it's become such a huge news event when a cool front has brought some slightly below normal temperatures to the region for 36 hours before rebounding to seasonal or slightly above normal levels.

Truth be told it has been very pleasant and we've had some cooler and drier nights that go against what we have been taught to expect for summer time but I don't see the reason for the repeated cause for alarm that we've witnessed approximately eight times this summer of which only two such events (one presently) had actually panned out.

It's just the weather and it's been great.

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119. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
118. wxgeek723
5:04 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
117. wxgeek723
4:30 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Central Jersey really getting hammered right now...

Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
116. goofyrider
4:28 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Lightning and thunder to the NW.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2957
115. Pcroton
12:47 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Well, regardless...seem to be purely a localized heavy rain threat at best. Given our stable marine layer I'm not so sure they make it through to me here.



SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX -MONROE-
806 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO ROADWAY FLOODING AND
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
114. Pcroton
12:45 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Quoting 111. wxgeek723:




Is that the high-res doppler? Always makes everything look insignificant to me. Perhaps radar beam angle is part of that.


Here's the regular doppler.





No idea what to trust there. News has made it sound like the end is near but that's not exactly a good measuring stick either.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
113. Pcroton
12:42 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Vapor imagery rather unimpressive.





Echo tops telling the story as well. Not all that high.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
112. Pcroton
12:38 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Quoting 109. wxgeek723:



For some reason I get the feeling that radar image is over exaggerating it. WU radar from Newark is much less red.


Very well could be. Another pet peeve of mine. Color scales and enhancement product source to product source varies greatly. I can find radar images that make a hurricane look like moderate rain. Hate it.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
111. wxgeek723
12:37 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
110. Pcroton
12:36 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
LMAO oh Mount Holly you are just intolerable. Just 90 minutes ago you called the dogs off... only to jack it all back up.



804 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TONIGHT
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
109. wxgeek723
12:35 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Quoting Pcroton:
Given what they look like on radar it's odd that there's no severe weather involved but I guess there isn't.

Sure looks like northern NJ is getting pounded.





For some reason I get the feeling that radar image is over exaggerating it. WU radar from Newark is much less red.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
108. Pcroton
12:35 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Whole lot of nothing to write home about where the SPC hiked up the SLGT category complete with hail, wind, and tornado potential.




We'll see what happens as the frontal system advances eastward (currently west of the chesapeake and snaking up through central PA into western NY into low pressure) and as the disturbance itself drops in from Lake Ontario.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
107. Pcroton
12:29 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
There is a lot of lightning and some hail signatures. Empty trianges qualify as less than 1" diameter.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
106. Pcroton
12:28 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Given what they look like on radar it's odd that there's no severe weather involved but I guess there isn't.

Sure looks like northern NJ is getting pounded.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
105. wxgeek723
12:24 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Or not...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SUSSEX COUNTY...HOWEVER THEY APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND NO REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE NWS. A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTY AS CONTINUING STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
104. wxgeek723
11:24 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Hail over NJ's (not so) High Point.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
103. Pcroton
11:07 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Quoting 102. wxgeek723:

I'll bet Mount Holly is patting themselves on the back with this cell in Sussex County since this morning they vaguely forecasted storms "north of Trenton".


ROFL!

A couple of these things are intense in NE PA. DBZ over 65 in some cells.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
102. wxgeek723
10:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
I'll bet Mount Holly is patting themselves on the back with this cell in Sussex County since this morning they vaguely forecasted storms "north of Trenton".
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
101. Pcroton
10:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Northern and Central Pennsylvania and central interior Virginia are both getting hit by severe storms and flash flooding. Somehow the SPC focus is on the SE PA, SW NJ, NE MD, N DE region with the SLGT category. Surprised we're seeing all that more widespread severe weather and it's not in the SLGT category. Surprised to see so many severe warnings but no watch.

Around and around the hamster wheel we go with that one. I thought the SPC was on the verge of fixing these problems with the new multiple tier outlook? A day like today shows the need for the change....but will they USE it properly is the bigger question.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
100. Pcroton
10:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
NWS just dumped the weather for me this evening. Right thing to do since we're so stable here. 77F now and under the marine influence. Hazy skies but no threatening clouds. Clearly a different story to the west.


630 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
99. Pcroton
10:12 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
The seabreeze air is so stable here at the coasts. Hard time seeing any thunderstorms making it here.

SPC had to upgrade to match the heavy storms out there but the SLGT category doesn't seem to encompass everywhere that's having flash flooding and severe warnings. They failed today....and it's tied to guidance not showing what's exploded on radar this evening. So then we have that whole argument of aren't the pros supposed to look beyond the models and spot these things before they happen?

SPC outlook for SLGT in the northern DelMarVa also features a 2% tornado threat, a 15% wind and hail threat.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
98. Pcroton
8:06 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Hot here today. As has been the case for the past week we seem to shoot up to a high temperature for about an hour or two before dropping and then maintaining. Then a sea breeze comes in and begins to wipe that out.


High: 87
Maintained: 84/85
Current: 80


Sea Breeze evident. Also showing is that stripe of warmer air through the center of the state from SSW to NNE - this spine of warmth has been a frequent occurance during the summer and does not appear to go over any of the state's main climatology offices. These areas have been "above normal" most of the summer...if even by only 1-2F. Things like this go unnoticed once we're just looking at text records of select cities.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
97. Pcroton
8:01 PM GMT on August 21, 2014


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
96. Pcroton
7:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...

BACKGROUND CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK DPVA AMIDST A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
HIGH PW SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NY/PA AND DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. A BELT OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST FROM SOUTHEAST NY ACROSS PA/NJ MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS IN THESE
AREAS. WHILE A COUPLE OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.









MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN PENNSYLVANIA...CNTRL/SRN NEW
JERSEY...CNTRL/ERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...N CNTRL VIRGINIA AND THE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211930Z - 212130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR/SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA THROUGH THE 22-00Z
TIME FRAME. SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE NEED FOR A WATCH CURRENTLY
APPEARS UNLIKELY...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRYING...TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...LIMITING CAPE FOR MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS ACROSS THE REGION TO SEASONABLY MODEST VALUES ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...30-40 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS DOES APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.

WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF STRONGER CELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD COASTAL AREAS. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR AND WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST
/MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY BY 23-00Z...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
95. Pcroton
3:09 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
The other fly in the oinment, and a thorn in the side of models, is 96L.

Given it's struggles it's not worth discussing until or if it develops. Until it does models will guess. Then they guess on how it fits into the pattern. Not shaping up to be an easy forecast in the 7-10 day from this viewpoint.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
94. Pcroton
3:07 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
I have learned that trees and in particular Maples die from the top down. So if it's a significant or uniform canopy death then the tree is on it's way out. Of course it takes many years in most cases.

Pruning the top of anything will cause the branches to grow outward even faster. The sap has gotta go somewhere.

So the pruning of that tree will exacerbate your concerns.

What one needs to do with an unruly maple is bite the bullet and prune it significantly. Where the majority of the major limbs are branching out you prune them down to two foot long nubs away from the trunk after topping the whole tree at around 20 feet at most. If it's a healthy maple it will explode with new growth and you won't even see the nubs after a few months and you'll have a brand new tree that fits the property.

of course if that fails and the tree dies then you just spent your "cut it down" money on pruning.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
93. Pcroton
3:04 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
It's warm... so I hope the GFS is correct... although recent runs have the whole pattern shifted a bit west... which takes the North East/Mid Atlantic coastal plains out of the "polar" influence. Still to see Canada look like this is nice. Fall is on the way.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
92. goofyrider
2:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
So two weeks ago a fellow was talking to me about my silver maple. He is a landscaper, and graduate of RU. It has matured from a so what tree to about 26 in caliper 50 ft in height. Concern was the apparent dead tips (two to three ft in length) of the top canopy. A few more inches and I will have tree in the garage. His theory is that too cold or frost damage, the last two winters is responsible(salt ?) and will take a few seasons to repair itself. This year the with the exception of crape myrtle, rose of sharon and hibiscus, the bush roses, hydrangea, the lilac and a honeysuckle vine all are without blossom or at most one or two blooms. Firethorn also took a beating. Cold or salt damage (hurricanes I AND S). So will opt for time.

Others have noted the use of Sat data from the early eighties gave a method to measure, compare observations that were repeatable precise and accurate. And could fit in a Cray IV or was it a V. We are hopeless, if you provide a sheet with dots someone will try to either plot a curve or fit a straight line or assess the robustness of the distribution of the dots to be meaningful. Add scales and numbers voila.

So for me I get the concept of stress and time will either cure or magnify the risk of the monster crushing the garage and family room and then becoming a source of lumber and firewood and mulch and then heat the roof since it will no longer block the sun and maybe solar panels might work or at least have a 180 degree quadrant for wind measurement unhampered by trees there is that.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2957
91. Pcroton
2:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Quoting 85. tlawson48:

In depth explanation of normals on the National Climatic Data Center website explaing normals. The frewuently asked questions section explains how we got thirty year normals in the first place and what can be inferred from them. Link below:

Link

They do specifically mention that: "Rather than inferring climate change impacts from Normals, we recommend users instead look at trends in U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) time series". Link Below

Link


Thanks for digging that up.

So then generally speaking when we're talking normals or above and below we should be adding in a disclaimer each and every time.

Today was above normal, in respect to the past 30 years, which were a very warm period of weather.

And that...I don't know about that.

I think if America was 1,000 years old and we had 1,000 years of information from every observation station currently in service we likely don't have this conversation outside of how Normal/Average should have a bit of it's own spread rather than just existing in an unrealistic 0.0 realm.


This makes me a bit queasy though:


Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and suspect data values.



To that end, USHCN temperature records have been %u201Ccorrected%u201D to account for various historical changes in station location, instrumentation
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
90. Pcroton
2:44 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Speaking of forecasts they just dumped my percentages for today to 20.... but then amped up tonight to "numerous showers and thunderstorms" at 60%.

So they're still all over the place with it. I don't really know what the problem is but it's well beyond the acceptable feeling out a pattern stage. Temperatures yanked back to upper 70s or 80 from the low 80s which had replaced the mid 70s which had replaced 80... and so on and so forth. Kind of ridiculous at this point.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
89. Pcroton
2:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Quoting 87. NumberWise:

Good morning. The "likely showers" for last night actually dumped 3" of rain here in the last 12 hours. It was a bit of a surprise, especially after 0.5 to 0.75" was forecast just yesterday morning (comment 56).


Yeah it looked quite heavy. The QPF forecasts...well I don't know what to make of them other than they're not meant for precision events such as thunderstorm downpours. They give you the general widespread threat levels at best. Yet that line of storms turned into a more widespread event so it makes you wonder what the deal is there.

Quoting 88. tlawson48:

In all the talk of normals, I forgot to mention the weather for today. 47F this morning as the clouds held off until just before sunrise. This probably means that forecast highs for today are too warm as the clouds will be able to hold down temps that started out about 3 to 5degrees colder than forecast. NWS says mostly cloudy, but the radar to our west says otherwise.


It looks like the coastlines are socked into the onshore flow and as such as cool. It will probably continue throughout the next 4 to 5 days at a minimum. I think we're kind of at the point where we need two forecasts - one for the coasts maybe 0-10 miles and one for the interior. We clearly have a consistent and ongoing boundary.

Also be it windflow from the low pressure or high pressure it seems that onshore is a given for the upper mid-atlantic and north east.

The interior temperature profiles is depending on rainfall and clouds. So that's yet another dynamic that is going to make the thermal forecasting a bit of a bug. I think we're going to see some widely varying temps. Coastal regions cool 70s. Places of rainfall cool 70s. Places of sun removed from the onshore flow probably 80s.

Lower Mid-Atlantic has the southern High Pressure funneling in the very hot air to deal with.

THEN in the later period we have the end of the month where at least on yesterday's models looked like a real true polar air intrusion was coming. Widespread and not just localized behind a low or under a high - talking whole North East, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes - then a minor ridge in the central and northern plains and another huge area of colder air for the Rockies, Pac NW, Alaska, Western Canada.


So things are on the move from our logjammed mess of recent weeks.


Steve D continues to disagree and is just steadfast focused on an Atlantic low deepening the trough across the NW Atlantic and sending the NAO deeply Negative which would throw everything I just discussed out the window. Yet at the same time he talks about the polar air at the end of the month I mentioned.

I don't think you can have both situations unfold at once just for the Mid-Atlantic and North East. If what he's speaking of occurs then we're back to the more regional isolated effects of wind flow - and not the gigantic widespread "Here comes Fall" change the GFS seems to be hinting at for the end of the month.

AND THIS brings me back to what I was talking about while we were jammed up. Predicting which piece moves first, creates a void, and what piece then moves into the void, thus setting the dominoes up to fall - is really very difficult for human or computer model.

So until we see more movement that resembles a pattern we can track and predict I think these ideas are all fine well and good - but - I'd be wary of trusting them.

I just don't like trying to predict the demise of jammed up patterns. It's like trying to pick the winning lane of a six lane highway that is merging into one single lane due to an accident all at the direction of a traffic cop. Who knows where you'll end up.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
88. tlawson48
12:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
In all the talk of normals, I forgot to mention the weather for today. 47F this morning as the clouds held off until just before sunrise. This probably means that forecast highs for today are too warm as the clouds will be able to hold down temps that started out about 3 to 5degrees colder than forecast. NWS says mostly cloudy, but the radar to our west says otherwise.
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87. NumberWise
12:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Good morning. The "likely showers" for last night actually dumped 3" of rain here in the last 12 hours. It was a bit of a surprise, especially after 0.5 to 0.75" was forecast just yesterday morning (comment 56).
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
86. Pcroton
12:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
You know, these products this morning just aren't lining up.

From CWA zone forecast products to the HWO issued.



820 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TODAY
PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.




338 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.




To the HPC QPF versus the HPC Hazards for NY State.

A couple of other oddities as well. I don't know if it's a case of some products not being updated at the same time and when they are then we'll see it all in sync? Problem with that is... which products do you trust at this hour?

These guys....their issues are compounded by things of this nature. The forecasting issues are enough. Release times and dates and inter-office products disagreeing with each other just exacerbates the problem needlessly.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
85. tlawson48
12:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
In depth explanation of normals on the National Climatic Data Center website explaing normals. The frewuently asked questions section explains how we got thirty year normals in the first place and what can be inferred from them. Link below:

Link

They do specifically mention that: "Rather than inferring climate change impacts from Normals, we recommend users instead look at trends in U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) time series". Link Below

Link
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
84. Pcroton
12:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Some heavy storms approaching Syracuse this morning.






Quick forming cells in the NJ-NY-PA border region.






Guessing this map gets more active today....

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
83. Pcroton
12:11 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Models seem to be developing rainfall in similar areas to yesterday.

This isn't a recent radar image...it's the 5pm model runs!




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
82. Pcroton
12:06 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Again as to post #77: Lawson.

Check this out...



CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014


...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 20 2014...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1929 TO 2014

YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM
OBSERVED 83
NORMAL 84
DEPARTURE -1

MINIMUM
OBSERVED 69
NORMAL 67
DEPARTURE 2

AVERAGE
OBSERVED 76
NORMAL 76
DEPARTURE 0




So when they are telling us where a daily temperature stands in relation to above or below normal they are comparing it to the 1981-2010 period of which we know was quite warm.

The data prior to 1981 is only used to see if we set a record high or low.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
81. Pcroton
12:01 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Here are some other products for today's weather. Flash Flood threat in NY State under 1.3" of 72hr QPF is perplexing. Something clearly amiss. The thundershowers along the boundary west of Albany did produce some flood advisories however so I am guessing it's about isolated potential and that would be why the QPF isn't reflecting what you'd expect.

After going on again off again - we're back on again with a very heavy hit of rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic...now centered over West Virginia. This feature much like the forecasted weather event itself has been all over the place. In some ways we've kind of returned right back to where we were at the first hints of this upcoming event in the long range.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
80. Pcroton
11:55 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
The high pressure that was affecting the region has retreated in response to the stronger high pressure influence in the south which has pushed our stationary frontal boundary back northward.




This front is then forecast to stall in the upper mid-atlantic region (again who is to say if they've got it right this time or if we'll see continued changes) and provide a path for multiple low pressure disturbances to ride along it. These will enhance rainfall. Also of note is that if you're north of this front you're going to be seeing onshore flow combined with rainfall and that would provide a cool rainy day but likely one of those mid 70s humid but cool oddball sensations to it. Another noticeable feature is the low pressure disturbance moving east from the great lakes into the north east. This has been one feature in the forecast that has not changed and looks to enhance rainfall in NY State.






At the end of the period the SE High pressure retreats allowing the Canadian high pressure to build back into the area. We're still looking at that chance for onshore flow keeping the weekend on the cool side but all the same we're still facing what we did back in June where we just aren't yet sure how aggressive the models are being versus what will realistically come. If this flow is even just slightly weaker then the cooling effects make it much less farther inland. There are some pretty standard boundaries when it comes to that. The immediate coastal towns. Halfway from the NJ coast to the Delaware river. The Delaware river itself. Then you're talking central PA if it gets any further. Any one of those lines could end up being the difference between acceptable averages or 5-7F below. You can look at it like a seabreeze front if you wish and as we know where those decide to stall you can see a fairly decent temperature gradient set up. This could also be a localized rainfall enhancer in some instances and we saw that with the second-to-most-recent heavy rainfall event.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
79. Pcroton
11:44 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Good Morning. Pleasant but humid 65F. Window weather overnight.

I've lost sympathy for the NWS this morning as our forecast now features rainfall last night through Saturday night. So we went from a week of rain slowly but steadily down to just a Thursday afternoon shower threat back up to a Wed night through Sat night event. Hasn't rained yet here but I guess the stronger showers in PA yesterday kind of qualified as a threat. Saw a few small but heavy cells near Trenton last evening.

So what is it that has happened here. Well as I mentioned in the blog header figuring out these stationary fronts can be a little tricky. It shouldn't be 500 miles tricky as the NWS has fought but it's difficult to acertain where the front will decide to set up and as such it can move those close to it in or out of a heavy rainfall versus light shower event.

What evolved was first the front to stall in the central-upper mid atlantic region...which led to a forecast of a week of rain.

Then as we neared, as we saw in June, the front wasn't going to stall until the southern-central mid-atlantic region. As such the forecast switched to mostly dry.

Now as we're in the middle of the "event" if you will we're seeing that the high pressure in the south east US and the high heat it is causing has extended northward and that stationary front really isn't so stationary anymore. It's moving northward into the Upper mid-atlantic states and disturbances will ride along it bringing us rainfall. As such the forecast now reflects that.

Once again, if any of my "ideas" about the weather is consitently verified, it's that we need to drop the precision 7 day forecast and go back to how we did things 30 years ago. Since clearly our understanding of the weather hasn't progressed enough since then to forecast any better than we did back then there was no reason to step out of the short range forecasting protocol that had worked just fine.

I'll never get my wish but in the end I guess my reward is something to vent on.

Maps to follow.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
78. Pcroton
11:38 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Quoting 77. tlawson48:

P, while I agree that a plus or minus 5 degree spread for any given day would be roughly average, I want to caution longer periods of record. For example, there are 143 years of record at Concord, NH. For the month of August, the running average daily mean temperature is 67.6 degrees. If you take a plus or minus spread of 3 degrees as normal, it equates to 112 years of record. If you take a plus or minus of 5 degrees of normal, it equates to 141 years of record.

I guess this issue rolls right back to defining normal. The smaller the window of record, the wider the spread for normal. Since a lot of people never took a class on statistics and have no idea on what the numbers that make up statics are based on, the data then becomes next to useless.


Sure, but if you look closely you'll see when they're telling if today was above or below normal they aren't comparing it to the longer record they are comparing it to the 1981-2010 record. A firm 31 year period of which we know to be a warm period in comparison to other 30 year periods preceeding it.

I agree the more record compilation you have the more narrow the 'average' designation should carry. Daily temps should have more leeway than say monthly and monthly more leeway than annual - and so on and so forth. Really I am just throwing an arbitrary number out there when my argument really is why does Average get 0.0 and that's it? Deviate a tenth and you're above or below? Then use that above or below designation to verify an idea? That's where I'm lost in the wash with it all. Of course to some degree then you're incorporating how specific human beings view or cherish being correct or incorrect and how aggressively they're going to use that above or below quirk to their advantage.


Any person who follows any sense of logic and realism knows full well that making a case for an opinion based off of being 1 degree below or above an accepted norm is ridiculous. It seems that those who put themselves under the most pressure to come out the hero are the ones who value the tiniest measurement that deviates from that line. A line we pretty much arbitrarily set in the first place.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
77. tlawson48
10:11 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
P, while I agree that a plus or minus 5 degree spread for any given day would be roughly average, I want to caution longer periods of record. For example, there are 143 years of record at Concord, NH. For the month of August, the running average daily mean temperature is 67.6 degrees. If you take a plus or minus spread of 3 degrees as normal, it equates to 112 years of record. If you take a plus or minus of 5 degrees of normal, it equates to 141 years of record.

I guess this issue rolls right back to defining normal. The smaller the window of record, the wider the spread for normal. Since a lot of people never took a class on statistics and have no idea on what the numbers that make up statics are based on, the data then becomes next to useless.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
76. Pcroton
1:11 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
The GFS Wind Maps for Saturday 8PM. Note that the NWS has been and continues to discount the GFS as a cold model. Been that way since early Spring when it went from being hot all winter to cold since Spring. Started on a single day flip of a switch. I think it's model manipulation at play at the software level...and it's just awful and inexcusable that it has not been corrected. YET the winds and temperature contours show the potential effects of the weekend onshore flow. It's just not going to be as cool as the model wants it but the process will be in play.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
75. Pcroton
12:37 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Numerous 86F highs and even an 88F high today in New Jersey. And also some climate reports.

Speaking of, here's the curious nature.


CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010


Using the rules I disagree with today qualifies as above normal while being compared to a very warm 30 year period in time.



















Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
74. Pcroton
12:26 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
This is what the high pressure system affecting New England and the Mid-Atlantic with onshore flow this weekend will be battling against. Mind you today's widespread mid 80s right into the Hudson Valley is also under the same onshore flow.




URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
808 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...Heat wave will build on thursday and last into the weekend...

.A stretch of hot weather will commence on thursday with a
combination of hot temperatures and a humid air mass contributing
to widespread heat indices over 105 degrees through the weekend.
The heat wave should peak on friday and saturday. Near record high
temperatures are possible during this period. Some factors that
may increase the heat stress more than usual are...A duration of
four days...Warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s...Sunny
skies with less afternoon thunderstorms...And very light winds.
People with plans for outdoor activities should during this period
should follow heat safety recommendations...Particularly between
the late morning hours and around sunset.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
73. Pcroton
12:22 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Albany NY cells also somewhat strong. One in particular has something a little intense going on with it.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
72. Pcroton
12:17 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Virginia Cells are quite intense. Maybe even some rotation there in the one big one. Some gust front wind shifts also evident. Hail signatures there.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
71. Pcroton
12:11 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
I give up.


Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather · 10m

I don't like this warm idea and I'll tell you why%u2026.



Really, I just give up.

I've laid out my reasons for why the topic is just ridiculous and I'd just be repeating myself again and again anyway.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
70. Pcroton
11:56 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Models have backed off on the strength of windflow from the high. We saw this happen in June and it appears it may happen again where the aggressive models are just too aggressive. Forecasts backing off in response. While the models themselves still render pretty cool weather we've learned recently with the operational models this summer they've come in too cold. Since this event is tied to wind direction and strength of that wind - the models backing off the wind - is probably all the NWS needed to see to back off the cooler temps.

The Bufkit printout also continues to show what we've seen all season long: The GFS is way too cold and the NWS consistently ignores it...and has been right to do so. Also note what's coming next week. The past few days have been warm and after the Friday-Sunday onshore flow producing some...well now somewhat average days...we're going to warm again.

Once again the well below normal temperature thing has been grossly overstated. I don't understand it but it sure has been a nuisance at the very least.









Soooo...get ready for a steady dose of average? As long as you share my viewpoint that average should have a spread of roughly plus minus 5 degrees and not be held to an absolute 0.0 pinprick of data. Heck I'd even be open to a plus minus of 3 degrees. Give it a narrow 6F spread there. It would really change one's perception of the season if that were done from the start.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846
69. Pcroton
11:45 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Newest NWS forecasts seem to be backing away from the Saturday-Sunday cool weather. Now up to 80F from 75F which was down from yesterday's 78F forecast.

Also my forecast now features less of a chance of showers but now over a greater time frame.. overnight tonight into Friday night. Was earlier just Thursday afternoon.

A QPF curiosity is in the high deserts of Mexico. Widespread heavy rains?



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12846

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.