Heavy Rainfall MidATL-NEast

By: Pcroton , 11:17 AM GMT on August 10, 2014

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August 10, 2014


A deep digging negative tilting trough over the Ohio Valley is poised to influence our weather this week.





This will pull an area of low pressure up west of the Appalachians on Tuesday and Wednesday dragging several frontal boundaries through the area.







The result will be a widespread heavy rainfall event.





At this time it appears any thunderstorms are forecast to remain below severe limits.





Later in the period the trough will cut off over south east Canada prolonging the unsettled weather in New England.



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267. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:16 PM GMT on August 17, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
266. cooldogs13
11:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2014
Yeah Steve d is being so annoying lately like he was like ohh the models keep backing off this heat wave guess its going to be one or 2 degrees below or above normal so everyone is wrong.. No1 except him said anything about this heat wave it again gos back to the models a week out if this was the winter and it had a huge nor'easter on it we would all be like wait till its closer not omg nor'easter 7 days out buy up the shelves at home depot what has gotten into these ppl its like temps modeled a week out have to be on point otherwise its the end of the world. Its just like that nor Easter I am sure as more model runs came in it would stay extreme snowfall or moderate to a light hit and that's when we see a pattern we follow so just like we see the temps between days 4-7 moderate to not as warm we should follow the trend no?!?!
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
265. Pcroton
5:07 PM GMT on August 16, 2014
Around here there's been more strict governing of the beaches than in years past. Around where the streams/rivers outlet they do test regularly and although rare they will on occasion close it due to certain levels being reached.

In the 1980s they couldn't care less. Our beaches were loaded with garbage. There were several hours each day you stayed out of the water due to the tides bringing garbage into the shore. Then we went back in the water when the tides carried it back out. Most people outside of the region read only about the hyperdermic needle scares but we'd be swimming amongst milk crates, landscaping refuse, plastic bottles like detergent bottles, dinner plates and plastic silverware, clothing, pieces of houses like painted wooded siding and whatnot, six pack holders... I mean you name it.


It's much better now. Yet events like we had do lead to a lot of runoff into those narrow waterways and you get the dirty roads, you get garbage, you get some local water treatment plant overflow, you get pools pumped out, all the lawn fertilizer... it all comes at once. Then you get algae blooms and you get fish kills due to it all. That drains out of these small bays during low tide and then ends up on the beaches nearby. Kinda gross when it happens.






Have reached 82F with a hazy milky white in the sky. The consensus amongst the guests is to go to the beach. It's quite warm out and I bet we make mid 80s here at this rate. Tomorrow calling for mid 80s so a little above normal we go for a short stretch here before some unsettled weather creeps in. Closed the windows and put on the air for the afternoon.

So what happened to our privately forecasted well below normal temps courtesy of a deep polar air mass? Curious way of admitting it's not gunna happen:


Okay, so even the ECMWF Ensembles has killed this idea of a heat wave. We get back to normal. That's about it. Want heat? Go to NC.


Nice spin. Now achieving normal temps somehow validates forecasting well below normal temps by claiming people and models were calling for a heat wave that they never were and then chastising these non-existent folks for something they never did? Cool! I mean Warm! I mean average!

Or something...I've kinda lost track of what is going on there at this point. Whatever it is it's not helpful...but complaining about it likely isn't either. I'm almost done. Almost.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
264. tlawson48
12:11 PM GMT on August 16, 2014
Quoting 256. Pcroton:

https://njbeaches.org/

Good water quality interface at that site.

A couple of beaches are closed. After the rainfall I would have expected a few more issues but I guess not?




They usually won't close beaches for water quality unless there are literally turds floating in the water. I'm sure there will be posted advisories at the beaches recommending you stay out of the water, but nothing directly prohibiting it.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
263. Pcroton
12:02 PM GMT on August 16, 2014
Another note about the temperatures. What I think is going on here is that folks calling for cold temperatures are calling for a cold pattern. For polar high pressure to invade from the NW. For an outbreak of cold weather.

If we do end up on the cooler side, and it's entirely possible that we could, it is not due to what they seem to "want" it to be from (large scale pattern of cold weather invading the north east and ohio valley).

Instead we're talking about more regional sources.

An onshore flow at any time will bring in marine air. This isn't a pattern at play it's a regional atmospheric disturbance (be it high or low) bringing in a wind direction that has a particular temperature source at it's disposal and as such will influence your weather with that source.

A rainy day is just that. Sun blocked out. Cooler temps should be expected that day.


I think that's one thing that has me cranky. This isn't winter. We don't have Alberta Clippers diving SE and then arctic high pressure bringing ice cold temps from Canada. This would be a regional influence and as such it shouldn't be a headline and most certainly shouldn't be used in support of a seasonal forecast.


As to the cool, average, or warm potential of the coming three to four weeks: I will continue to be steadfast in saying we're talking about a temperature range of maybe 8-10 degrees at most separating all the potential outcomes. Maybe it's 76F on August 23rd. Maybe it's 84F. And that's pushing the extremes in my mind of the difference.

At most this should/would have even the most sensitive individuals saying either "its a little cool today" or "its a little warm today" regardless of what comes.

It's really not that big of a deal despite my endless discussions about it and what's irking me about the mainstream take on it all. It's just late summer weather. There's a couple of options that could unfold all within a very narrow temperature envelope.

Really, it's just mild weather, and they need to get over it.

If only I could take my own advice. Perhaps one day.


And now that people are stirring it's time for me to log off.

Enjoy the day!
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
262. Pcroton
11:51 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
Yes it is a curious thing how the media shapes what we hear.

You just know our administration is happy with the recent rise of events, the Missouri and LA police issues, the heavy weather... all steering focus away from the roughly dozen countries we're involved in militarily or supportive of such military action.

Sad really but that's just the way it all works. They shows us what sells and what they want us to see. There are ways to see and hear what's actually going on around the world but it's quite a laborious action to find and then visit dozens of other news sources on the web and still not quite know if you're reading the truth or a trumped up fabrication to fit an agenda or a dramatized event meant for ratings and so on and so forth.

You know when you think about it we all crave information but we're really held hostage by it all as well. Nobody just reports what is happening. It all has an agenda or desired outcome in mind. In that none of it is pure be it weather or politics or war or health.

Unfortunate really. Getting far worse, too.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
261. Pcroton
11:42 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
Quoting 260. rod2635:

If Joe, Steve, the local media and national media have lost their way on weather, becoming ensnared with the idea of drama, hype, celebrity, that's their problem. I shake my head at the coverage of a single thunderstorm event in Detroit on the national media leading the evening news, the same three semi-submerged cars under one overpass on all three networks, over and over. Really? This trumps an Ebola outbreak in Africa, a dangerous face off in the Ukraine, etc.?

I come to this blog to find out what's going on in my back yard, the Philly area and beyond. I'm glad your voice is here, with the great graphics, real time information, intelligent commentary on the variables.



Good point.

Speaking of weather to come it appears all models take the frontal boundary coming in on Sunday and wash it out as it nears NJ for the north west. Looks like New York State, maybe northern/western PA, Western Mass, VT and NH will see some showers/thundershowers from the front but as it moves south and east the energy appears to get stretched apart. There is a chance we see forecasts from the DC to NYC corridor waffle back and forth between clear and isolated/scattered showers of 20-30% with updates.

Then the boundary will slide through to the south and a couple of disturbances are set to ride west to east along it. The latest models now have this occurring more in the central Mid-Atlantic rather than the Northern Mid-Atlantic so that is why we see our forecasts now on the drier - more scattered showers - side of things.

We had that problem in June a few times with these boundaries - and we knew the boundary would stall and then disturbances would ride across - but where was the question? Remember one stalled right in the Philly-central NJ region and we had a week of rain. Then the next was forecast to do the same but then it ended up well to the south. So this is again a similar forecasting issue as to those in June.

After that there is one intriguing aspect to the temperatures forecast and what we can expect. While we'll see warmer temps invade from the south west a couple models are hinting that an area of high pressure will slowly move from just north of Vermont to over Nova Scotia - but take from August 22nd to August 26th to do so. This would put us into a persistent onshore flow and as such whatever our water temps are that is what the wind will pick up and pull inland.

So there is a chance here, and much like in June as well, that we do see an onshore flow persist for a few days. IF that modeling idea were to come about we would then see coastal communities on the cool side. Then what it becomes there is a question as to how far inland the persistent flow makes it. Back in June it was modeled to make it into central PA and central MD from the coasts. What we instead saw were about 3 days of immediate coastal influence and two days where the flow made it loosely to I95 in NJ.

While that is occurring the models are absolutely baking the mid-south in 90-100F temps. So we're certain to see a bit of a battle between those temps to our south west and the potential for high pressure skirting the US-Canada border to place us into a strong onshore flow.

One thing to speak on about the GFS is it had been overly aggressive with the rate of the onshore flow in the past with this near-exact setup - so I'd be a bit wary about just jumping head first into accepting it. While we did end up with that flow it was relatively weak in comparison to the GFS model - even in under 24 hours. So until we get close enough to also have the NAM accessing that time frame - I don't want to just jump on it. Last time when the NAM came into view it had a much weaker onshore flow and that's what we got.

Also with the GFS as we know it's been consistently undercutting our temps and has been rejected by the NWS daily. So that's another thing to be wary of there.

If we were to flat out trust the GFS then we should expect breezy NE winds to usher in upper 70s for highs all through DE, Eastern MD, eastern PA, NJ, SE NY, CT, MA, etc...

Yet much how I felt about this upcoming week of weather I still think we're going to see model and forecast shifts and I'm not keen on trusting anything beyond 48 hours - and that all ties back into the very jammed up atmosphere and just how difficult it is to not only predict when it will break but moreso HOW it will break - what piece moves first and what void does it leave to be filled?

Maybe it's best I'm a bit busy for I think putting up a new blog header say today with whatever the models are showing - could just end up being a fantasy land faulting in less than 48 hours time.

If there's one thing I agree with Steve on it's that the models aren't handling the 500mb layer well and that's all a result of the nature of the jammed up atmosphere over the North Atlantic and North America. So given that I'd be even less inclined to trust the latest runs on the 500mb layer which could usher in the onshore flow for several days in the long term.

Why would one note that models aren't handling something properly but then do an about face and say now they are just 12 hours later.....unless it's simply fitting a desired result now?

Makes no sense to me for I think the same problems still exist: Atmosphere jammed up. Models unsure how to solve the puzzle.

We have three choices really: Slightly warm, Average, Slightly cool.

We're not going to make the right call, except by virtue of throwing a dart and having that 1 in 3 chance to prevail, at this distance.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
260. rod2635
11:26 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
If Joe, Steve, the local media and national media have lost their way on weather, becoming ensnared with the idea of drama, hype, celebrity, that's their problem. I shake my head at the coverage of a single thunderstorm event in Detroit on the national media leading the evening news, the same three semi-submerged cars under one overpass on all three networks, over and over. Really? This trumps an Ebola outbreak in Africa, a dangerous face off in the Ukraine, etc.?

I come to this blog to find out what's going on in my back yard, the Philly area and beyond. I'm glad your voice is here, with the great graphics, real time information, intelligent commentary on the variables.
Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 337
259. Pcroton
10:54 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
This is curious. The Thunderstorms for Sunday are.... gone? NWS strips the forecast out. Oh and sorry to break it to the "ICE AGE COMING" Folks! We're going to be above normal for a couple of days! Any one can just look at the GFS MOS numbers and tell! Also if it's raining in SE Thailand at 8am any given day it's just silly to expect it to be above freezing in New Jersey!


Yeah...I'm feeling some sort of way. I should probably stop.



SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.






Also the NWS has really lessened that daily rainfall blow here. Something changed overnight....and this isn't unexpected as whenever you have such a jammed up atmosphere as we talked about recently there's a good chance that forecasts beyond 48hrs are going to fault. It's just one of those times that you should expect it and it's one of those times one should probably be more accepting of a forecasting failure - since it's so very difficult to figure out what piece of the kinked jet stream will want to move out first and then how the rest will follow.

Also, if one can help me, my average highs are low 80s this time of year with low 60s overnight. It might rain one day and we'll get upper 70s. The rest of the time we're looking at lower 80 and in a reversal from what we've seen in recent weeks the overnight lows will actually be what will be warmer than normal while the highs slide down into normal.

If anyone can find the "WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES" and the "DEEP POLAR AIRMASS" please let me know.

I'm riding with the NWS/NOAA on this recent pattern. They've done well most of July and August....they've been on top of things.

Despite the rantings I do like Steve and when big weather is around I am always looking to see what he's got to say but he's been just awful with first the "its not going to snow anymore" and now the "its well below normal" crap. The man derailed himself.

But ya know, I'm sympathetic, we all do it. And on the internet everyone and every site and every forum and every blog has one good run, peaks, and then kind of fades away. There's no crime against humanity occurring here. It's just a shame is all.



MONDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
60S.

TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
60S.

FRIDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.




So it looks like days will be "normal" and nights "above normal" which brings about a mean of "above normal". In my book it wouldn't qualify as above/below normal with any of those temperatures. I call it normal. Then I still believe the following period will be a little warmer. 65/85 splits for me would be 2-3F above normal. That's all I think anyone should expect out of what appears to be the Aug 20-Sept 10 time frame.

Could that fault? Absolutely...but it's very unlikely to fault in a "well below normal temps" way. If it faults it will simply come in right around our acceptable averages for each date.

We'll get into that a bit more in the next blog.

People are going to be stirring shortly around here....just enjoying the cool morning peace.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
258. Pcroton
10:30 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
Appreciate it numbers. If I get an extra bit of time we'll do a refresh.

54F this morning. Didn't drop the extra degrees I thought it might. Seems a few areas were a couple degrees warmer last night. A little curious to see the drier night come in warmer.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
257. NumberWise
12:51 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
Ahh, P, you deserve your rants! I can understand your disappointment at having weather info sources become unreliable. I think we use the internet to look at the various sides of many issues - news, politics, education, for example. The source of that information is important, for it all has a slant that we must understand. I've had a few sources become unreliable (usually agenda-driven).

I don't see the weather wars of which you speak, for I depend on you to sort through it all and give us your best opinion! I feel a bit guilty about this, but not guilty enough to subject myself to more of the CC debate (pro or con).

So it sounds as though you'll be otherwise occupied this weekend, so I guess I'll have to step outside to see what weather we have. I hope you weather the weekend as well as you blog the weather.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1711
256. Pcroton
12:39 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
https://njbeaches.org/

Good water quality interface at that site.

A couple of beaches are closed. After the rainfall I would have expected a few more issues but I guess not?

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
255. Pcroton
12:21 AM GMT on August 16, 2014
Oh here it goes... let's pretend everyone's claiming a massive heat wave is on the way then swoop in to rescue us poor huddled masses and save the day and tell us it's not a heat wave....even though nobody is calling for a heat wave in the first place.




Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather · 4h

I'll go on record that I think this forecast will bust badly for the northern Mid Atlantic and Great Lakes.
Take a look at the GFS MOS numbers pertaining to this “heat wave” as some have called it. LINK
A big warning sign with the models is when they keep on pushing back a temperature event or keep scaling down with each run.
This typically means there is an error in the handling of the 500 MB pattern and the correlation to the surface temperatures.
We saw this last in June with a model bust 6 days out of 4 to 8 degrees too warm. You've been warned.
Latest ECMWF & GGEM look very unimpressed with heat now, with any ridge breaking down after 2-3 days” Told ya
If the latest ECMWF is right, and it is, you can forget about heat waves or above normal temperatures. Showers and temps near 80.
Never underestimate the negative NAO and a warm stratospheric environment.
Of course, if you just look at the Pacific and notice the powerful +PDO influence, the idea of a heat wave is just, well, silly.




Who called it a heat wave? Haven't heard that once. NWS has called for average with a couple of days above average by a few degrees. CPC has slightly above average in the long term. Heard the TWC was calling for a very warm south east.

So we've seen a warm model bust in June. Know what else we've seen six out of eight times since June? Someone calling for a deep polar airmass only to have warm temps prevail. I wonder who that was.

Also curious how a long range model showing something that doesn't suit an ideal is considered a joke and we're reminded never to trust any long range guidance....but a long range model showing something that is in line with a desired ideal is fine and is something you can trust. Seems...a bit agenda driven to me.

Maybe it will be cool, maybe it will be warm, or perhaps right around average. The incessant arrogant and aggressive approach is nauseating however. Like when he wanted winter over and it wasn't over and throughout March and April instead of reporting on the weather he spent countless hours each storm telling everyone it wasn't going to snow...and then it snowed.

I don't get it. Was once such a good feed to read. Now it's just crammed full of trash. It's never a good thing to lose a good resource. Maybe too much coffee and too much cardio. Who can say.

Why do I go in on it as I do? Perhaps I'm just ticked off to have lost a once really good resource. Perhaps I'm just tired of the "pro-CC" versus "anti-CC" rhetoric. Perhaps I'm just tired of a day being 1 degree below normal being paraded around as grounds to receive the nobel peace prize in science or whatever the heck it is a weather guy would find himself receiving for no real reason. Maybe I'm just tired of watching my favorite hobby descend into a disasterous twitter/blogger war amongst idiots fighting about climate change and whos forecast was right and who was right first.

Somebody go steal the Rocky statue and place it in front of a house in Freehold NJ. Clearly, that's where it truly belongs.

I honestly just don't care anymore. Why couldn't people like this stick to arguing over American Idol judging? Why did it have to infect nature, weather, and climate.

For the love of everything holy can someone please make it stop. It's things like this that make me absolutely curse the internet.

But what can ya do.




Meanwhile, Joe B's take on the temperature hysteria: Keep in mind he's highly anti-warming as well....but at least he goes about it in a bit more sane and sound manner. He's also a likable personality even when he's trying to destroy NYC with a hurricane or steer a blizzard into Pennsylvania so he gets some snow.

I'm starting to feel like Henry M these days back when he clearly stopped caring about doing winter videos...but did them anyway. I got that stoic "who gives a crap I'm tired" look about me.

I'm not quitting but I'm sure as heck all out of "care" all the same.






Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 7h

Have been watching rumors flying of polar vortexes into the east in fall. Think west into high plains much more likely to have cold fall
have made no secret about the cold winter in the east/south I have, but think the fall in the east will be WARMER than ave. JMA concurs
When you love weather/climate its like eating breathing. which is not heroic. There is no climate war, There are no climate heroes.
What there is a field being prostituted for agenda driven ambitions. Its sickening
I think anyone that is under the delusion that climate is a war and they are heroes, should serve 6 months in the IDF.






Apparently, today was a good day to rant. Maybe I'm just cranky at the idea that in an hour or so my house is going to be crammed full of noise and energy. Kinda not digging it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
254. Pcroton
11:49 PM GMT on August 15, 2014


Gary Szatkowski @GarySzatkowski · 12m

Seeing some chatter about a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) earlier today from the Sun aimed toward Earth. Possible enhanced aurora activity.

Any enhanced aurora activity is several days away (around the next opportunity for cloudy skies for our area). Details very sketchy.

And nothing formal yet from Space Weather Prediction Center about a CME. We'll keep an eye on it.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
253. Pcroton
11:32 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
And some early precip maps...



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
252. Pcroton
11:29 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Rainfall last night ended up totalling decent numbers in NJ. And our present 8-14 day outlook from the CPC.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
251. Pcroton
11:25 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
We have dumped. Reading 72F out front (north) and 67F out on the side (east).

Dewpoints running upper 40s to low 50s through the state and those are a good marker for your expected low temperatures.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
250. Pcroton
10:39 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Yes the clouds moved in here as well. Sure seemed oddball as it wasn't forecast to be so dense. No showers here though.

Temperatures were quirky today. We were still at 68F at 11am. Then broke to around 72F and stayed there for some time and then you felt a quick warming. Was at 75 and thought here we go and then the clouds hit. Dropped back to 73F. Then when those cleared we shot up to 82F briefly then hung around 80F for some time. At 78F right now. For the majority of the day it was quite cool and pleasant.

Still expecting low 50s tonight here because we are drier than last night. Forecast calls for mid 50s. Tomorrow calls for low 80s again so right back to normal we go.


I am going to be busy this weekend with a full house so it'll be fairly quiet on here. That means I'll probably hold off on a blog until Monday and by then we'll see where this multiple day unsettled weather event is going next week.

Looks like some thunderstorms on Sunday with a front that clears through and then comes back in with disturbances riding along it. In fact it may be somewhat similar to what we had occur back in June.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
249. zotty
7:48 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Lucky you, P. My forecast isn't working out so well. We have a pretty thick deck of clouds in White Plains, NY, and there are some showers about. Another wonderful summertime forecast.

I'm sure glad I put the roof down on the Jeep! :/
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 743
248. Pcroton
3:48 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Just had some good 30mph wind gusts come in from the west. Humidity dropped. Skies are electric blue with whispy white high contrast cirrus - no haze.

It's going to DROP tonight for sure.





Yeah Lawson I guess average is boring. What's in a label anyway right? I think that's part of the problem really. Not everything needs to obey a 0.00 line and then require headline catching labels when it deviates slightly.

It's been a very nice summer! You of course had to wait for yours a little longer than anyone would want to.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
247. tlawson48
12:15 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Great rant P, always love them! Certainly average up in this neck of the woods. We were roughly one dgree above average for July and so far we are one degree below average for August. Which is, wait for it, average. Gosh, average is boring, isn't it? :)
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
246. Pcroton
12:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Quoting 241. tlawson48:

Temp dropped down to 53F before some light showers moved in this morning. Definitely chilly yesterday, we topped out at 71F and the dewpoints were in the low 50's, so it felt quite cool.


Seems like the Euro and GFS, even at 7 days out, pegged the cutoff 500mb low and it's prolonged unsettled weather effects for northern New England.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
245. Pcroton
12:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Caution: Some science. Some factual reports. And then some ranting...which would require time on your part to get to the end.


When we look back and remember this summer folks are going to talk about how cool it was. Yet as we've established through monthly climatology reports and the articles from the NJ state climatologists we've seen it's actually been exactly average temperatures.

I think the most notable thing isn't what others might be targeting: The lack of mid-upper 90s for any prolonged period of time.

I think it's the overnight lows and the lower dewpoints and lower humidity this summer that stands out the most. While temperatures have been near average, 1-2F above or 1-2F below any given week plus period of time at any given station state wide, what has struck me the most is the overnight lows.

We had many a day that reached 2-3F above normal but at night ended up 2-3F below normal. So what allowed the cooler nights? Lower dewpoints!

That's what steers my attention to the lower humidity and the lower overnight lows. But we have been above normal during the days but also drier so it hasn't felt hot.

I think when folks wake up each morning the first thing they notice about the weather is the cool morning. They'd be correct to do so. However they go about their day and in their minds it's summer and in their minds that means 100F right? So when it tops out at 87F and it's dry air (the true anomaly this summer) they just remember the cool morning, the fact that its noon and it's not 95F, and come to a realization (a faulty one at that) that it's "Cool". The truth is, it's average over the course of a day. If you want a record? That record may very well be the number of near-average days this summer well exceeding any other year.

From the climate record July featured 8 days at 90 or above in Newark, NJ. That is the climatological average for the month of July. Newark NJ also tied it's average monthly high temperature of 86F for July. Newark NJ was 0.7 degrees below average for its monthly low temperature of 68.7F. Newark NJ came in 0.4F below the mean average temperature of 77.4F with 77.0F for the month of July 2014.

Unfortunately these climate reports are only available from the major stations all of which are in urban areas in New Jersey. I watched daily a spine of warmer temps line up through the NJ pine barrens into central NJ each and every day this summer and these are the folks that are actually 1-2F above normal for the summer. Yet that is inconsequential overall and the Newark climo serves to show that the "very cool summer" commentary is an absolute farce led loudly by the anti-cc agenda folks who have become just as tiresome as the pro-cc agenda folks. I believe I have made it clear I can not stand either side of the fence on that one. *tastes great!* - *Less filling!* ... Hey folks, can we just shut up and drink beer? <---me


We're currently experiencing a couple days near or slightly below normal depending on location and a couple nights nicely below normal (5-8F it seems). We just had a strong cold front go through. because of the commentary about the "cold wet summer" that's been going on, it's as if any slightly cooler day is now used as "SEE SEE, COLD WET SUMMER! I WAS RIGHT!".... and now it's no longer considered a natural process to drop a couple degrees below normal with the passage of a COLD FRONT... it is instead headline news. Let's plaster our twitter feeds with retweets of people saying "Its a degree cooler this morning than normal!".

I am intrigued, incredulous, irritated, and frustrated at the summer-long banter revolving around the temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, we're going to warm back to seasonal averages over the weekend, go above normal Monday into Tuesday, then some unsettled weather will come in and keep us maybe at or a couple degrees below normal.

Get this, in case we've also been brainwashed to forget this weather phenomena, when it's cloudy? And rains? Kinda like when a cold front crosses the region? It's a bit on the cool side. It's not a cataclysmic climate shift towards the next ice age. It's not proof of a season of cold weather. It's a cloudy day...guess what...when it's cloudy...you stand a chance to come in a degree cooler than your average temp for the date! Imagine that.

GET THIS! The day before we get a storm system coming in from the south west, it might be a few degrees above normal, as we tap warmer temperatures from our south and west. This IS acceptable and not a sign of cataclysmic warming nor does it obliterate the notion it's been an average summer temperature wise!

See that, both sides? Weather being weather. It has perplexed me and to some degree troubled me that we've now come down to bickering over a cool day after a cool front or a warm day after a warm front... in the tenths of a degree in some cases... as to whether or not it proves a long range idea.

Ridiculous and tiring.

Looking into the longer range once next weeks unsettled weather moves out... the models and the climate folks all are in agreement of above normal temperatures coming.

So what does that mean? As has been pointed out by some on this blog that can mean it's a single degree above normal. I think we've become so brainwashed that "warmer temps" has people thinking "Oh so its gunna be in the 90s and humid right?"

No. If your average high for the coming weeks is 82F it might be 84-85F. In my book I wouldn't even quantify this as above normal but since the banter over whether or not its a cold or hot day has been reduced to micro measurements (I saw one of our beloved private area forecasters say it was 0.5F below normal for the week for the mean average temp and therefore this verified the thoughts of a cold summer) then well you know what, yes, YES, its going to be astronomically above normal from later next week through the start of September!

But not really. Also we have to remember this time of year that our accepted averages are dropping. So if our forecast is truly static and we're looking for highs say in the low to mid 80s daily for the next 20 plus days, while today it will come in as being average - in 20 days it will be above average. Not because we've warmed, but because we haven't cooled along with the slowly yet steadily cooling averages as we near fall.


I hope all this mumbo jumbo makes sense. I hope it helps folks avoid the hysteria over whether its hot, cold, or a 5 month in advance summer forecast has or hasn't panned out all over fighting over a half a tenth of a degree average over a month.

To me, what is cool and what is warm? If you tell me 80F is average... I'm NOT going to sit here and say a 78F day was cool and an 82F day was warm. It's ridiculous but this is EXACTLY what has been going on and it's been clearly driving me a bit insane as the summer has worn on.

I can't wait for winter to come...so that then we can see the arguments over half inch of snow over hundreths of degrees of latitude...and whether or not it means we're well above or well below snowfall averages for the date.

I don't know why we've headed this way as a weather community I just know it stinks, it's ridiculous, and I think it's coming down to the desire to BE RIGHT.

Being right feels good. Being wrong feels not so good. I personally can't give two dookies who is right, who is wrong, and why. Yet a lot of these folks do. Predict something and then spend all their energy trying to prove they were right even if they weren't.

Who cares. It's the weather for crying out loud. When the wheels start to come off you don't slam the accelerator to the floor and hope nobody notices. You pull over and fix the damn thing.

The same should go for forecasting. So what if you thought the storm would follow I95 and instead it followed the coast. Seriously. WHO FREAKIN CARES. Know what? When you see it going for the coast? Dump your previous idea and form a new one. Don't spend all day trying to claim otherwise and don't spend all damn week afterwards trying to pretend it did what you thought it was going to do when it didn't. We all have eyes. You can't tell me it did something it didn't and I won't notice.

Same goes for these ridiculous temperature wars going on. I really couldn't give a crap if your COLD WET forecast wasn't right and instead if was mild and average. Can't just be happy you were on the right track and it wasn't oppressive. Nope gotta cherry pick the coldest temp on a random night from any possible location and point to it and pound your chest I mean we're fighting over tenths of degrees these days to try and prove something did or did not happen. And for what. Ego stroking?

Get over it people. It's been a very nice summer and one of the MOST AVERAGE summers we've seen since, GET THIS, since 2009.

Yep. All this noise over something that happens twice a decade on average. An average summer happens twice a decade on average. *shudder* Wow. Break out the shocked look!

The only thing that's become unprecedented this summer has become the warring over a tenth of a frickin degree and what it proves.



Good day............... a new blog will come out either today or tomorrow to try to detail the coming unsettled weather and the not-so-cataclysmic period of stable warm weather on the way.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
244. Pcroton
11:23 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Newark Climo was about 4-5F below average for yesterdays temps. Suburbs were about 2-3F below average. This time of year if you're a bit on the cool side you'll see the cities come in further below their averages because of the heat island effect being diminished. During an average summer day they'd be much warmer than the surrounding suburbs. On a cooler summer day you'll find more uniform temperatures across the region and therefore the anomalies will be greater where there should be a heat island effect.




To compare, 82F in Tinton Falls yesterday was the accepted average (Eatontown NJ, one town east - 82F) for this time of year.



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243. Pcroton
11:19 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Enjoy your trip, LT.

Hit 54F here. It's a nice cool morning. Looking for 80 this afternoon and then another cool night before the return flow hits.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
242. originalLT
10:12 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Leaving in 25mins., Temp. dropped to 55F in Stamford CT.--Clear, Baro. 29.88"R
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241. tlawson48
9:51 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Temp dropped down to 53F before some light showers moved in this morning. Definitely chilly yesterday, we topped out at 71F and the dewpoints were in the low 50's, so it felt quite cool.
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240. originalLT
4:03 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Driving down to Del Ray Beach Fla. . Leaving Friday about 6:45am should be back in 9 days or so. I'll try to check in on my I-Phone from time to time. Everyone be safe.
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239. Pcroton
1:32 AM GMT on August 15, 2014



Those two storms out in PA consolidated into a nice line and then weakened as they approached the i95 corridor. It appears they since had a resurgence in NJ. Getting some light sprinkles up here just under the northern edge.



I bet I hit 55 here in Tinton Falls. I think even the immediate shorelines and those living on the larger bays or riverheads may even see 60.

There is one little fly in that.... these showers have raised the dewpoints and that could make it difficult for temperatures to really bottom out unless that moisture is swept out in the coming hours.

This is certainly shaping up to be one of those "temps will attempt to drop to the dewpoint" type nights.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
238. cooldogs13
1:27 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Just heard a little rumble on thunder and I took the dog out and it's raining... Getting a nice little shower coming through getting nice and cool out maybe we could get to 60 tonight??
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237. Pcroton
1:22 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Quoting 236. DonnieBwkGA:

Was there some sort of upper disturbance or short wave or a pwat bullseye associated with the excessive rains that occurred in Detroit, Baltimore and Long Island? What I'm trying to ask is if there was a specific disturbance within the storm system that caused the excessive rains in all three places.


Evening.

Post #209 is why I believe the pieces were able to come together as they did.



As to those pieces the short story is that we had very cold upper levels and very moist lower levels at the same time. It was as if deep tropical summer at the surface met mid fall conditions at the upper level. The 500mb feature involved in the weather was also quite vigorous and had accompanying mid and lower level jets line up just right.

From Baltimore to Long Island and into New England there was indeed a strong mid level meso-scale low pressure disturbance involved.

Really the whole thing amounts to a perfect storm. Summer time level moisture getting underneath fall level upper levels allowed for an incredible lifting of air and a high condensation rate of moist air entering cold air aloft.

Why wasn't it just a more run of the mill 2-5" heavy rain event and why did we have such insane totals? Can this really be answered by a colder than usual -20C 500mb layer (that you'd normally see around -14 to -16C) and much higher than usual PWats of 2.4" (where you'd normally see 1.5-2")? I don't know. It doesn't quite add up to me there.

Just seems like a whole lot of extreme components came together at once and that's thanks to the jammed up North Atlantic pattern allowing the jet stream to kink the way it did bringing in very tropical surface moisture underneath very cool upper levels. Throw in a front/trough, some coastal baroclinic/thermal environment, and a strong mid-level disturbance and this is what you get.

Still I think there's something missing in all of that of which we probably don't yet understand, know what to look for, even have a name or index for.... but that's a ballpark of what happened anyway.

Timing is everything and boy did everything time just right.

If you're wondering was this some kind of an unprecedented event, a signal of something to expect more of, a straw that broke the camels back type event.... well, I'd have to say it's doubtful this was anything more than just a perfect event.

We're actually seeing a similar situation unfold out west in several states due to a very similar situation. A very strong and cold 500mb feature combining with very moist tropical surface air. Same reasons it lined up out east are the same reasons it's lining up out west: The north atlantic block has jammed up the exit for the jet stream. Since the jet stream isn't going to just disappear and all that rushing air is still pouring into the block it ends up kinking and doubling back and such like a long piece of string being lowered to the ground. All those doublebacks and kinks bring the usually far away polar and tropical airmasses together into the same region.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
236. DonnieBwkGA
12:29 AM GMT on August 15, 2014
Was there some sort of upper disturbance or short wave or a pwat bullseye associated with the excessive rains that occurred in Detroit, Baltimore and Long Island? What I'm trying to ask is if there was a specific disturbance within the storm system that caused the excessive rains in all three places.
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235. Pcroton
10:57 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Suddenly my forecast got full. From Saturday Night through Thursday Night: Showers.... with the lone exception being Monday.



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234. Pcroton
10:51 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Here are the rainfall reports through 8AM today:







Here was the prior day further south:





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233. Pcroton
10:33 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Cool tonight. I think the HRRR guidance has it. I bet tomorrow night we can knock a couple more degrees off this here. Then the rebound.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
232. Pcroton
10:20 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Well damn. If you're gunna snarl traffic THATS the way to do it.





Baltimore OEM

There's an overturned tractor trailer blocking all lanes of NB I-895 @ Moravia Rd Use I-95 I-695 or US-40




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
231. Pcroton
9:49 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Boat load of cumulus has yielded two nice thundershowers in PA. Quite strong compared to guidance but far more isolated than modeled at the same time.




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230. Pcroton
9:47 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 225. tlawson48:

My pending home sale is now on the rocks as my buyer went through an online only lending company (who all are suspect in my eyes) and their financing fell through. Now the lender I am working through is going to have to jump through their own ass to help out my buyer in order to make sure the whole pile doesn't collapse. And we have a baby due in six days and we are supposed to close on both houses in 13 days and everything I own is in storage and I have a roofer coming on Saturday to fis some items that are contingency on a sale that may not even happen. Anybody want to kick me in the junk or light my car on fire to take my mind off everything? At least the weather today is really nice.... :)


Well damn.


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229. Pcroton
9:42 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Looking at post #228 we can also see why Julio regained hurricane strength where it did north of the islands....in that ribbon of +2C warmer water. That and of course a favorable relaxation of shear but without that ribbon of water I doubt it would have re-intensifed.

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228. Pcroton
9:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 226. NEwxguy:


Hey,"P"
I can't remember a pattern stuck like this on and on.As we've said many times, This started the last week in July last year and except for a little relaxing once in a while,its hung tough.


Neither can I to be honest but I wonder what the mid/late 70s brought with the three strong winters of 75/76, 76/77, and 77/78.

This overall large pattern is a year and almost a month old. All we've seen are regional relaxations of the pattern at times. I think the only real difference for us since winter has been the NAO going negative.




I have noticed the Pacific is changing however and I wonder if that means anything for us months down the road pattern wise. Where I have circled on the SST anomaly below used to be a huge pool of warm water. Remember when our pattern was at it's height in winter this was +3 to +4 degrees C. Even at it's flattest we had +1 to +2 in this region. Now it's in the negative surrounded by a ring of positive - or another way to look at it would be that the anomaly has shifted to the east (the sliver of warmth closer to North America's west coast there). Not sure what to make of that but it's something to keep an eye on since this was considered the key factor to the huge Pacific ridge leading to the huge east US coast trough all winter and spring. If folks recall I frequently posted this map and it was like a bowling ball of hot water in the north pacific there. So something has absolutely changed!






I think this could be why some folks are hesitent to speak about winter yet. What does this anomaly do. Does it return strongly positive or has it's reign ended? If it's ended then the weather pattern will change as a result.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
227. Pcroton
9:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Beautiful day but it got warm as well. Hit 82F and stand at 80F now. Kept the windows open however knowing tonight will get cool again. Dewpoints seem to slack off in two places. Got the Maine/NH coast.. and another line in central PA.







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226. NEwxguy
7:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
tlaw,
That is not good.It is too bad,when you have all your ducks in a row,and the other guy messes up and then the whole deal comes crashing down. I hope with the little one on the way,things suddenly fall into place.I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.

Hey,"P"
I can't remember a pattern stuck like this on and on.As we've said many times, This started the last week in July last year and except for a little relaxing once in a while,its hung tough.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
225. tlawson48
5:18 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
My pending home sale is now on the rocks as my buyer went through an online only lending company (who all are suspect in my eyes) and their financing fell through. Now the lender I am working through is going to have to jump through their own ass to help out my buyer in order to make sure the whole pile doesn't collapse. And we have a baby due in six days and we are supposed to close on both houses in 13 days and everything I own is in storage and I have a roofer coming on Saturday to fis some items that are contingency on a sale that may not even happen. Anybody want to kick me in the junk or light my car on fire to take my mind off everything? At least the weather today is really nice.... :)
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224. Pcroton
5:17 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
At this time the system next week has a MUCH weaker 500mb component to it. Over the great lakes in both images.




We can also see the strong zonal flow as well at these layers....warm weather.
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223. Pcroton
5:11 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
As to the warmup it's centered on an August 15-Septmber 10 type time frame and it's nothing significant. Just seasonally warm and at most a few degrees above accepted normals.

It's not any large scale pattern change just a short lived relaxation of it as far as the east coast is concerned. We would probably see another strong front/system come through at the end of it and put us back into the familiar pattern.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8368
222. Pcroton
5:09 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 220. NEwxguy:

Well,I ended up with 1.37 inches,actually was a nice rainy day,without much hassle,and very beneficial.
Now they are hinting at another possible low/warm front/cold front event next week.Seems to be the pattern we're in for now.
Will be interesting to see if the September warmup occurs,based on how long we've been in the current pattern,not going to hold my breathe,although as we've said repeatedly,its got to break sometime.


And just like with the last one last night's models want it to lazily go from the Ohio Valley to the Central Mid-Atlantic and slide off shore. And just like that last modeling error - it looks like we'll see a repeat change in modeling as we near bringing it more up into the upper mid-atlantic and southern new england regions.


HPC 7 day:

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221. Pcroton
5:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
NWS NY - dual pol precip accumulation image.



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220. NEwxguy
5:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Well,I ended up with 1.37 inches,actually was a nice rainy day,without much hassle,and very beneficial.
Now they are hinting at another possible low/warm front/cold front event next week.Seems to be the pattern we're in for now.
Will be interesting to see if the September warmup occurs,based on how long we've been in the current pattern,not going to hold my breathe,although as we've said repeatedly,its got to break sometime.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
219. Pcroton
4:58 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
NWS Gray ME Twitter was booming yesterday as the events unfolded.


More and more it seems NWS offices are starting to take to this idea. I don't know if it's a wise thing to have people searching twitter for weather updates - when the NWS should just be updating their actual products instead...or perhaps should have an interactive chat box on each of their NWS webpage listing such information.

Most of this is falling on deaf ears I bet. I still forget to check NWS twitter feeds for information.
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218. Pcroton
4:52 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Newest model runs are stronger with the evening shower threat.





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217. Pcroton
4:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Like snowfall at a global warming conference.....irony has a way of creeping into the matter. So it's no surprise we'd get an event like this one just as everyone is discussing how best to relay information without either overestimating or underestimating an event.

In some ways there's always going to be a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation given how fluid the weather is and how quickly an event can surprise high or low.

As to the noise well the more interconnected we become the more noise there will be. It's the increasing downside to the internet and there's going to be more of it as more voices are heard and more people become comfortable talking with and on the same level as the "professionals".

I doubt we can ever find a way to handle that side of things.

I do know that in the past we didn't have so many problems because the NWS/NHC had very strict guidelines and never spoke in such detailed certainties or pinpoint forecasting and never looked beyond 3 days. They had their rules and they stuck to them no exceptions. Now... cooks discretion seems to trump the rulebook and it gets folks in trouble far more often than you have the "nice save" scenario play out.

I think we thought we had the technology to switch to pinpoint accuracy and long term outlooks and as it turns out we really don't. As with anything a reversion to prior protocol is never going to happen. Now we're left with waiting for technology to catch up. Even when it does it appears we'll never see the funding to set it into motion.

The introduction of precision language, a desire for pinpoint accuracy, and the foray into the longer term has become an unmitigated disaster that no one is willing to admit to.

Short term events like yesterday's was really outside the box. There is no excuse or explanation for why the downstream CWAs failed to react sufficiently to the threat. A threat that was very slow moving. A threat that was there for all to see as it was devestating the Baltimore CWA region. Even though the initial intensification of the event was unexpected it was rapidly adjusted to by the first CWA that had to deal with it. Therefore the lack of sufficient reaction downstream is inexcusable. This one - it really is outside of the usual complaints and/or discussion we have about weather events and the forecasting of such.

In the end though even if Upton were to see and forecast 12" of rain and tell people to stay off the roads - would they? Probably not. So there is a give and take there as well. Mount Holly - I don't think anyone has a clue why they failed to react - and even told us five individual times with each new AFD release that they wouldn't be. Even their warnings came well after reports of flooding. They were a failure.

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.