Precipitation Extremes - NE/MIDATL

By: Pcroton , 1:15 AM GMT on August 07, 2014

August 6, 2014

While we will remain in a trough the pattern is moving along every so slowly west to east in a zonal flow. As the present trough moves out a very slow moving 500mb feature will move lazily eastward from the Mid West to the Mid Atlantic. This is going to create extreme differences in the weather from north to south.





If this pattern materializes it will create a stubborn pattern of drier weather through the North East and upper Mid-Atlantic while some very persistent wet weather plagues the central and southern Mid-Atlantic regions.







This is supported by the precipitation models and the HPC is clearly on board. Areas that have already received far too much rain are going to get it yet again while areas that have been dry will remain dry.









Temperature wise we will be in store for average to a little below average. I'd caution that the model maps are probably overstating just how far below average areas will be. We have seen this occur frequently since late June where the models predict a significant cold weather outbreak and what we see is just some seasonal cooler temperatures behind a frontal passage. I don't think this pattern will be any different. Most of us will see seasonal averages to at most a 1-3F departure from accepted normals primarily in your overnight lows. Yet where unsettled weather sets up you will of course have significantly cooler weather due to persistent cloud cover and rainfall and this could occur further south.









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35. WunderAlertBot
11:17 AM GMT on August 10, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23288
34. MaxWeather
10:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2014
Some sewer weather for us by midweek next week.
With a cool down following.

Lows in the mid-50s for us... yay!
Member Since: April 11, 2014 Posts: 51 Comments: 2002
33. listenerVT
10:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2014
Thanks for the links, P!!!

Argh!! I don't want the smoke back!! Any word on how contained the fires are?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5958
32. Pcroton
7:48 PM GMT on August 09, 2014
Thanks LT. Yeah would you look at that. I think it may be hovering over Steve D's house!


Weather wise for you and I and other NJ-NYC-CT locals - looks like things are coming in a bit clearer now with a late Tuesday into early Wednesday hit and then right back to an extended period of the same weather we have been having.


Not much going on today. Seems a seabreeze has kicked up a line of cumulus here...and there's some cumulus fields in the usual regions of NY-CT-MA. Also Maine and NH seem locked into the slowly departing 500mb feature and have some scattered showers to deal with.

The weather in NC-VA-WV was much weaker than anticipated. Wonder why things faulted so badly down there....other than everyone caught accepting the model runs as foolproof of course.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
31. originalLT
1:22 PM GMT on August 09, 2014
Nice photos, "P" in your post #25. I think I see a U.F.O. in the third picture, down, right in the middle! :)
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012
30. Pcroton
11:05 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
The HPC has backed off it's excessive rainfall outlook from Moderate (Post #28) to... none. Just 8 hours ago they had Appalachia on their way to ruins and now they have showers instead. With the models flipping from the slow moving Ohio Valley to central Mid-Atlantic 500mb pattern, to a deep digging negative tilting 500mb trough... thus taking a 7 day central/southern Mid-Atlantic slow crawling heavy rain hit, and cutting that short around Day 3 and steering the whole mess into northern New England instead... Well, we can expect more forecast butchery to come our way over the next 3-5 days.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
29. Pcroton
10:59 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Good Morning. The big shift in mid-week weather continues.

Models going with a deeper trough and earlier negative tilt. This would take the would-be mid-atlantic crawling low and steer it northward through Pennsylvania and New York into New England.

The GFS is more aggressive and further west while the Euro is further East but actually cuts off the 500mb stream thus prolonging the New England rainfall. So we don't have a verified model solution to trust yet.

What we do know the models have shifted away from an all central/southern mid-atlantic hit and now dig the trough down into the Ohio Valley much deeper and sharper and puts it negative and as a result we would be looking to see the storm system come northward over the interior rather than lazily exiting the NC coast. This could place the upper mid-atlantic and southern new england coasts into a lighter precipitation area with the heavier weather remaining over the far interior.










Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
28. Pcroton
2:54 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
As of this hour no Watches are active. Only HWOs. Watch for HPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions as the event unfolds.


There is however an excessive rainfall product issued for Virginia and North Carolina and adjacent states.





Excessive rainfall discussion
nws weather prediction center college park md
939 pm edt fri aug 08 2014

...Valid 03z sat aug 09 2014 - 00z sun aug 10 2014...
...Reference awips graphic under...Day 1 excessive rainfall...

Made no change to the previously issued excessive rainfall
outlook. The worry about mdt to heavy rainfall was focused in a
period beginning overnight and continuing into the day on friday.
Models still point to pw values increasing to values of 2 inches
or greater ahead of a slow moving area of low pressure bringing
more organized rains/convection. Some increase in the southerly to
south-southeasterly low level jet into the central appalachians
overnight tonight into early saturday should lead to an
enhancement of the rains this region. There is the normal amount
of spread with respect to the qpf details..So used a combination
of the hires arw/nmmb5 and in house pseudo bias corrected mean for
the finer details of the manual qpf..Although the global model
qpfs again were at least on the same page as the hires qpfs. Some
2-3+ inch rains likely in the more favored central
appalachians..Which could cause some flooding problems..So kept
the slight/moderate risks intact this area.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
27. Pcroton
2:49 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Here are the HPC QPF forecasts, first for Days 1-3, and then for days 4 and 5.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
26. Pcroton
2:45 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Looks like the new model solutions are digging the trough in deeper and deeper and the 500mb layer is trying to capture and steer the persistent unsettled lower mid-atlantic weather northward through the upper mid-atlantic and north east.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
25. Pcroton
2:41 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Smoke still present and producing great sunsets. Some images I took this evening.











Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
24. Pcroton
12:15 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 21. Gaara:

I second the hail reports.. Lots of friends in Mass on FB posting about it.

One thing about the last couple summers is that I remember a handful of evenings each year where we had a nice MCS come out of the NNW from upstate new york.. I seem to recall at least a half dozen big overnight blobs over the last two years. This year? Nothing resembling the sort.


I think this summer's thunderstorms will be remembered for being "surprisingly intense" when they did happen to come....which means we'll remember how the SPC undercut the few events that did come and not the storms themselves.

I believe the cooler upper level temps due to our pattern could be the culprit in all of that. As we saw yesterday -20C temps overhead were the reason the storms got so much more intense than forecast. Usually -14 to -16C is where you'd expect us to be so that was a particularly strong 500mb feature that developed.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
23. Pcroton
12:11 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Sure Listener. Here is the GOES AEROSOL PRODUCT. Just click on the "latest" image. Only works during daylight hours of course...since the satellite needs the sun to reflect off the particles!

Our sunrise was quite orange this morning as a result.

The other image is just a visible satellite image from unisys weather. It appears to render in a way that makes the smoke more visible than other image sources.

Unfortunately it's on it's way right back to ya as the 500mb low departs eastward you will get right back into the flow.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
22. Pcroton
12:07 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Good Morning. Wonderful temps. Will be estatic when these are HIGH temps!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
21. Gaara
2:23 AM GMT on August 08, 2014
I second the hail reports.. Lots of friends in Mass on FB posting about it.

One thing about the last couple summers is that I remember a handful of evenings each year where we had a nice MCS come out of the NNW from upstate new york.. I seem to recall at least a half dozen big overnight blobs over the last two years. This year? Nothing resembling the sort.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 534
20. listenerVT
1:49 AM GMT on August 08, 2014
P, I'm with you about seasons. I'd like Spring to last 5 months, Fall to last 4 months, with a month of Summer and two months of Winter. See what you can do about that, okay? ;-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5958
19. listenerVT
1:41 AM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 17. Pcroton:

A lot of hail reports today in New England.






True that! My relatives on Cape Cod sent me this:

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5958
18. listenerVT
1:37 AM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 15. Pcroton:

Jeez...look at the heavy smoke pulled in around the 500mb feature today.







P, could you post the links to those two graphics? I would appreciate being able to keep tabs on the smoke. It has been such a relief to not have it here the last few days. We were getting a lot of respiratory issues from it for awhile! Thanks.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5958
17. Pcroton
12:00 AM GMT on August 08, 2014
A lot of hail reports today in New England.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
16. Pcroton
11:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
Smoke quite visible in our skies here in NJ

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
15. Pcroton
10:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
Jeez...look at the heavy smoke pulled in around the 500mb feature today.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
14. Pcroton
9:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
Actually looking back at today's model runs they did catch on to the 500mb feature. Forecasters just seemed to ignore the stronger solutions....and have now found themselves catching up to the event as it unfolds.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
13. Pcroton
8:32 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
The 500mb feature is much stronger than forecast/modeled/expected.

-20C temps are very cold and supportive of severe weather.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
12. Pcroton
8:28 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
Yeah it's kinda gotten out of hand in New England today. Seems forecasts were a tad bit underdone. Could have kinda used a severe thunderstorm watch.






Mesoscale discussion 1515
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0201 pm cdt tue aug 05 2014

areas affected...Parts of nrn pa/srn ny enewd across vt/nh/srn me

concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

valid 051901z - 052000z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...Risk for isolated/marginally severe wind gusts and/or hail
will remain possible with stronger cells through this afternoon.

Discussion...Latest objective analysis shows ongoing destabilization
across the lower great lakes/new england region ahead of a weak cold
front...Where diurnal heating through scattered cloud cover is
combining with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to yield around
1000 j/kg mixed-layer cape.

Widely scattered storms continue to develop near the front from
central ny enewd...While more widespread storms continue to congeal
across wrn ny/nwrn pa ahead of a short-wave trough crossing the
lower mi vicinity.

Area vad wind profiles show roughly unidirectional/moderate wly flow
through the lowest half of the troposphere...Supportive of
ewd-moving/multicell-type storms. A few stronger cells have been
observed thus far...And expect that to be the case the remainder of
the afternoon where low-end severe risk persists.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
11. tlawson48
6:38 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
Sooooooo......... There's, like, nine severe thunderstorm warnings across ME, NH and MA? No SEE TEXT from the SPC or a mesoscale discussion. Radar looks like some crappy, multi colored christmas lights that were put up very haphazardly. And I get to drive home in twenty minutes. Wheeeeee.......
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 3014
10. Pcroton
4:03 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
I have to admit...I'm done with summer. Even though it's been a reasonable one I'm just done. Ready for fall. Ready to cut down the flowers and rake the leaves. Ready for the cooler weather.

I can understand those in New England and New York don't feel this way but even in April, despite having 2" of snow on the 17th, we did have 10 days over 70F in April down here. We had a nice Spring but we did have the warmth as well. So while folks from CT/Lower Hudson Valley northward battled the boundary we were consistently south of it and warm.

As such we have had a longer summer. Then again I tend to crave change rather quickly so that's part of it.

And while an 85/65 split for the next 10 days may sound nice - it's repetitive and warm. I want 60s for highs and 40s for lows. That's the season I want to drag on endlessly.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
9. rod2635
12:48 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
Quoting 8. tlawson48:

The theme of average is really going to knock people on their ass when the end of September hits and we barely make it to 66F. Yes, for my area on the last day of Sept, the average high is 66F. Not the Polar Vortex, average. Less than two months until I have to rake leaves.

Perhaps it was the fact that the snow didn't melt until the second half of April. Perhaps it was the fact that we didn't break 80F until the end of the first week of June. Perhaps it was the fact that I am moving and we are expecting child number two. But in my perception, summer arrived extremely late and is now rapidly drawing to a close. Climatologically speaking, it ends in just about three weeks. I don't want it to go. Considering that I hate sweating way more than I hate freezing, these are strong words.


I don't want it to go either. In my mind's eye it is still July 28. I am in denial about the calendar telling me It's August 7. Would be nice if it just stayed still for a while until I was ready for it to move on. Perhaps part of it is the passing of a close friend of 45 years distorting my perception of time. But now in August we have the inexorable loss of daylight becoming more noticeable, the talk of school supplies, students returning in late August, building a 'summer's over' mentality that steals some of the comfort of the month that was locked in solid in my childhood back in the 50's.

On another note, am down in Avalon, NJ for a long weekend. Arriving today I observed the hyped surf from Bertha and wondered if the waves were selective to other shore communities. Nothing special here. Have seen more drama on many an occasion. Still, if the coverage did result in the saving of a life, through extra vigilance or extra care by beachgoers it was worth it. The tug of a strong rip current is pretty scary and the power of even a modest tropically generated wave seems to slam harder, perhaps due to a different configuration or break pattern. Been there on the ocean bottom wondering what hit me enough to give it respect.

Nice string of days ahead. Will ignore the calendar and enjoy them. Maybe even create a resodding project for some little golf course with my limited skills with the clubs.

Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
8. tlawson48
11:51 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
The theme of average is really going to knock people on their ass when the end of September hits and we barely make it to 66F. Yes, for my area on the last day of Sept, the average high is 66F. Not the Polar Vortex, average. Less than two months until I have to rake leaves.

Perhaps it was the fact that the snow didn't melt until the second half of April. Perhaps it was the fact that we didn't break 80F until the end of the first week of June. Perhaps it was the fact that I am moving and we are expecting child number two. But in my perception, summer arrived extremely late and is now rapidly drawing to a close. Climatologically speaking, it ends in just about three weeks. I don't want it to go. Considering that I hate sweating way more than I hate freezing, these are strong words.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 3014
7. Pcroton
11:47 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Looks like there's a scattered thundershower threat this afternoon in the North East as low pressure in Quebec is slow to move on out. It's exit is blocked by our old frontal boundary and the remnant low of Bertha hanging it up some.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
6. Pcroton
11:31 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Regional temps pretty much painting the line between rain and no rain this coming weekend into early next week. Follow the 66-72 contour on the high resolution map and that's pretty much your cutoff. On the wide range map we can see this "cold snap" has nothing to it but the acceptable 36 hour temperature retreat of which we're halfway through. There's just no support behind it.

It's 6am and it's warm as can be in Canada and Alaska...so as the theme continues on this blog, the models have been terrible at overestimating these things (i think this qualifies as round 6) and the handful of much loved local private forecasters continue to overly push the weather as being cold when it's clearly not. So much so that local climatologists have had to resort to cutting articles showing us in detail how the temperatures are average and not cold in order to put down the false information.

It's pleasant weather and we're getting some nice cool nights combined with warm days near average. This should continue although tonight may be the last cooler night for most of us in the upper Mid-Atlantic as I've seen forecasts rebound for lows as well now forecast Mid 60s up from Lower 60s. Figured we'd see a bit of a moderation there.

Still the big theme is the weather and temperatures are quite nice....it's just that there's nothing unusual about it and certainly nothing well below average going on. We're just not used to "average" in the middle of summer - we're conditioned to accept 10-15F above average as the normal weather for July. In reality that's not the case which is also why I'm always wary of "averages" and what they truly mean (60 on this date last year, 100 on this date this year, means 80 average right?).

But hey, I guess this is my Euro Snow Map, and I'm probably paying for freaking out over the backlash behind that mess back in winter which gave birth to weather community vigilantes. Now I'm doing the same over temperatures.

Oh well...forward we march.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
5. Pcroton
11:20 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Great pic, listener. I keep waiting for a bolt of lightning to shoot out of there.


Lawson...I just mowed my lawn 5 days ago and had to mow it again yesterday. So after mowing once I dropped the blade and mowed it again. As soon as we got that rain the other day it just took off. Also the bugs really took a liking to the deeper grass so it was time to reduce their hiding spots.


LT...it appears that cell that we saw was pretty intense at times yesterday.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
4. Pcroton
11:17 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Good Morning. Cool morning 57F again. Seems to be a favored number for the cool mornings. As figured we're already seeing the NWS moderate the coming high temps. We're now forecast in the Mid 80s across the long range...and I saw the News also brought up temps to the Mid 80s for the most part as well. These "cold snaps" really aren't all that deep despite their internet born advertisement and what they do bring in cooler weather is weighted mostly at the night time.

If we could only have "average" temps all the time then Summer would be a much nicer season. As would fall and spring I suppose as they'd last longer than they usually do around here.... mostly going from cold to hot and hot to cold at the flip of a switch. Rarely do we get a prolonged fall or spring temperature run. Although that would mean it could never snow during the daytime in NJ as we'd be 38F nearly every day in January. So there's the tradeoff. As such we'll handle the occasional 90 plus day in July to get the occasional 20 degree day in January.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 122 Comments: 33042
3. tlawson48
9:25 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Mild thunderstorm yesterday (for the third day in a row?), my grass simply won't stop growing with all the rain. Looks like a similar setup for us again today. Can't beat the temps, 55F this morning.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 3014
2. listenerVT
1:58 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Fresh new thread! Yay!

Here's a photo my son took in the middle of Kennebunk, Maine a few hours ago. Impressive! He says the thunder and lightning were impressive, but the wind not as bad as he imagined it would be when he saw the cloud.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5958
1. originalLT
1:55 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
I See we have a new Blog Thread!. Watched Lonnie Quinn at 6:15pm tonight. It seems that one cell was quite powerful and did some damage and gave 1" diameter hail to up-state NY as it cruised SE late this afternoon and early evening. He may mention some more storm reports at 11pm. on Channel 2 here in NYC area.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8012

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.

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