Heavy Rains - Mid Atlantic Coast

By: Pcroton , 10:00 PM GMT on July 30, 2014

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August 6, 2014 - 7AM
Update Section


Updates begin Post #206

Expect a warm day featuring some scattered showers and thundershowers as a weak frontal boundary continues to push through the region. A disturbance over the Ohio Valley may push into the DelMarVa leading to some stronger isolated cells this afternoon.




July 30, 2014 - 6PM
Heavy Rains - Mid Atlantic Coast


It seems we have an abrupt change in forecasting on the way. The large upper low in the east Atlantic which has been a feature I believe has been responsible for jamming up the atmosphere across the ocean causing our cold fronts to stall out before reaching our coasts is still quite alive and well and causing more mayhem.






This go around the whole flow appears to be backing up and that upper low will head westward towards the central Atlantic and our nice strong cold front will retrograde back into the coastlines where several areas of low pressure will form along it and move through the region.






The resulting pattern would dump heavy rainfall over the Mid Atlantic coastal states.

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221. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:16 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
220. originalLT
9:12 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
That cell you pointed out, "P", has gotten Severe, near Brewster NY.
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219. Pcroton
8:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
My stringbean and tomato plants went from skyrocketing to...nah not so much once the cooler nights hit again.

What stringbeans I have gotten have been amazing. I have around 100 tomatoes on just 8 plants but they are taking forever to grow and ripen. Bad signs when that begins to happen.

Had one spot I had to rip out a handful of stringbean plants and cut off a limb of a tomato plant...the spot had yellowed up and gotten nasty looking. Didn't see any fungus in particular - just seemed like a spot that got too wet or something.

All the herbs flowered for a second time. I'll let them go from here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9319
218. Pcroton
8:42 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Not much of anything out there weather wise. A rather strong cell dropping south through the Hudson Valley.



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217. zotty
5:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 214. tlawson48:

Preliminary data is in for Southern Maine and we had our 7th wettest July in the last 120 years (or so). It was within .4 inches of the summer of 2009. What made this July different is that about 40% of our rain came from Hurricane Arthur (and mostly overnight) and the rest was from thunderstorm downpours (again mostly overnight). So even though we got pant loads of rain, unlike 2009 (where it was cool and drizzly for days if not weeks), this July was quite nice. It simply pleased everyone: farmers, beachgoers, campers, hikers, etc.


I heard the blueberry bushes have had record crops this year! Same thing for the Midwest, too- the corn harvest is so good that farmers are seeing more than one ear of corn on the stalks. Rare as they are, it is pretty amazing what happens when we get an average year.

PS- I had to post- this is the lowest I've seen this blog on the list in some time!
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216. Pcroton
12:33 PM GMT on August 06, 2014


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215. Pcroton
12:28 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 203. Gaara:

I've enjoyed this summer.. 90% of the days have been 75-88, the pool has been between 82 and 88 since late June, and most of the rain has avoided the weekend days.


Summer has been very nice.




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214. tlawson48
12:26 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Preliminary data is in for Southern Maine and we had our 7th wettest July in the last 120 years (or so). It was within .4 inches of the summer of 2009. What made this July different is that about 40% of our rain came from Hurricane Arthur (and mostly overnight) and the rest was from thunderstorm downpours (again mostly overnight). So even though we got pant loads of rain, unlike 2009 (where it was cool and drizzly for days if not weeks), this July was quite nice. It simply pleased everyone: farmers, beachgoers, campers, hikers, etc.
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213. Pcroton
12:18 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 205. tlawson48:

A cell was born over my house yesterday afternoon and quickly strengthed as it headed east. It was pretty neat to watch it rapidly fill in as it moved away. Showers this morning and warm, 67F.


It's been a long time since I've seen that happen around here. Spend what seems like hours watching a cloud build and darken and then it starts to move on and it lets loose just to the East. When we have that scenario unfold late in an evening we usually get treated to an hours-long lightning show as the cell moves East and out to sea. Since it'll be the lone storm tower in the region you can see the whole cloud unobscured and as such the lightning firing all through the cloud.

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212. Pcroton
12:12 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 204. listenerVT:

As I drove to work, 2:52-2:56pm, just two miles along Route 15 in Jericho VT the rain was so heavy that my Mini Cooper's smart wipers were going at full speed, and the wind was such that it was ripping twigs and small branches off of trees, green leaves and all, and scattering them all over the road. I began to wonder if there might be some straight-line wind nearby. Just going from the car to the door of the building, I got drenched. My raincoat and socks were still damp 5 hours later.



You had some strong storms pop up right in the region. Pretty much only affected your area at that before quickly fading. Almost wonder if a bit of a Lake Champlain sea breeze boundary could have developed here to help this since it was so localized and like a small line of storms.

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211. Pcroton
12:09 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Storm damage reports:




It appears these reports are all significant tree damage and hail 1-2" diameter.
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210. Pcroton
11:43 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
We can see the weak front coming in from the North West. Of lone note along it is the sinking air over northern Ohio. This piece of energy is what could trigger some stronger isolated cells down in the DelMarVa later this afternoon.

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209. Pcroton
11:38 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
An interesting slow moving system is modeled to affect the central and southern mid-atlantic over the weekend. This is the same feature that the Euro has hinted at developing tropically off the NC coastline....something I'd put little faith in however.

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208. Pcroton
11:36 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
As a result of the weak front we shouldn't expect anything impressive temperature wise behind it. Just a return to pleasant seasonal weather at most a couple degrees on the cool side.

We can continue to see the overwhelmingly cool overnight bias of the GFS - something that hit like a flipped switch back in early Spring - where the model went from always being too warm to suddenly wanting to put everyone in the freezer every night. We can see how the NWS consistently ignores it as well. When is the last time you saw a discussion featuring a temperature forecast weighted to the GFS? Not sure what they did to this model but they sure did screw it up.






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207. Pcroton
11:25 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
Models are rather meh with it...







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206. Pcroton
11:24 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
Good Morning. Not sure how (not) exciting this is going to be this afternoon. Looking rather uneventful. Maybe a couple of stronger cells down in the DelMarVa later today.



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205. tlawson48
9:17 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
A cell was born over my house yesterday afternoon and quickly strengthed as it headed east. It was pretty neat to watch it rapidly fill in as it moved away. Showers this morning and warm, 67F.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 781
204. listenerVT
4:19 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
As I drove to work, 2:52-2:56pm, just two miles along Route 15 in Jericho VT the rain was so heavy that my Mini Cooper's smart wipers were going at full speed, and the wind was such that it was ripping twigs and small branches off of trees, green leaves and all, and scattering them all over the road. I began to wonder if there might be some straight-line wind nearby. Just going from the car to the door of the building, I got drenched. My raincoat and socks were still damp 5 hours later.
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203. Gaara
1:00 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
I've enjoyed this summer.. 90% of the days have been 75-88, the pool has been between 82 and 88 since late June, and most of the rain has avoided the weekend days.
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202. Pcroton
8:15 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
That's a nasty hook echo with strong rotation in NY State! Where's the Tornado Warning?



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201. Pcroton
8:11 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
There's a SEE TEXT now also for Wednesday for the Mid-Atlantic...but....they failed to actually discuss it beyond the summary.


...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...AS WELL AS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.


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200. Pcroton
8:09 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Yeah a SEE TEXT was issued at the last update for the North East.



...NW PA/NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
NE NY STATE AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A LARGER BAND OF STORMS IS
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS WRN NY/PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT AND MUCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS NRN NY ENGLAND...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE BAND OF STORMS FARTHER TO THE SW COULD ALSO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

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199. tlawson48
6:33 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
ME, NH and VT getting some good boomers. At least one t-storm warning and a handfull of special weather statements for marginal severe with downpours. And the humidity is pretty juicy again (82F, dewpoint 67F).
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198. Pcroton
5:32 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Florida has also been hit hard with rains the past week - especially yesterday. Also not quite in the news enough is what's gone on in the South West.






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197. Pcroton
5:24 PM GMT on August 05, 2014




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196. Pcroton
5:18 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
You can really spot the seabreeze boundaries with cumulus growth in NJ, Long Island, CT, and RI: Wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated pop-ups in these lines.

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195. Pcroton
5:18 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
A lot of cumulus popping along with scattered showers/storms.



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194. Pcroton
5:15 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 188. zotty:

Different topic- I know the summertime is very difficult to forecast out more than a few days, but what I find so interesting is that the 7-10 forecast has been pretty good as long as you stick to that 7-10 days out. (That applies more to the weather itself, and not the temperature...) It seems it changes 100% within 3-5 days, and then does a 180 and the original prediction turns out to be correct. It is all annoying/confusing/amusing at the same time.


Yes it is frequent that in the mid-term the forecasts change dramatically only to be proven incorrect. Many times what we see listed in the 5-7 day range ends up being the forecast they return to in the 1-3 day range.

We especially see that in winter where a long range model run will have a storm. The storm will "disappear" in the mid term. Then reappear in the final 48 hours. Not sure what the problem there is. Joe B and Bernie R and Henry M among others frequently commented on this...but never provided an explanation beyond "the models always do this".

I'm still steadfast in believing we should have a detailed 48 hour or at most 72 hour forecast. A long range out to five days. And that's it.

Everyone always wants to see far ahead but it makes no sense to do so.

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193. Pcroton
5:12 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 189. zotty:

Last one from me-

I think my computer is broken. The forecast for While Plains is btx 80-83 for highs and 60-63 for lower with nothing but sun for SIX (6) straight days, starting Thursday.

I like average summers...


Yep we're all in for a nice string of dry weather and average temps. It might be boring but it will be nice.
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192. Pcroton
5:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 190. tlawson48:

America was one of the first places to have a widespread education system that was basically free and open to all (more or less). However, we still run our schools on the foundations of a system that really no longer applies for almost everybody in this country (schooling originally was set up around agriculture - hence the summer break). Couple that with the fact that our lawmakers keep trying to force the same system down everybodys throat and then get angry when not everybody is an A student (even though an taking a kid from "didn't even show up to a C-" is a huge achivement) and you quickly see why things don't get any better.

We all know that education is the best way to save ourselves as a species. Other countries are better at it, because until recently (the last several decades) they were much worse at it and had the drive to do better. The United States peaked in the 1960's compared to the rest of the world. Now we have to figure out how to get that fire back.



The US has been slow to adapt or unwilling to adapt. It is also more interesting in spending money elsewhere. I don't understand it I just know I don't like it.

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191. Pcroton
5:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Great article once again showing it's simply been an average summer here in NJ and not cold...and not even below normal.


Where's Summer?





Where's summer? First average N.J. June, July in years may have many wondering


The Star-Ledger By Stephen Stirling


It would be easy to understand why anyone in New Jersey might believe summer has yet to arrive.

The state has largely been in the grips of a cool, dry air mass in recent weeks. The late June and July heat and humidity that tends to stand so clear in people’s memories has been as quick to exit as it was to arrive. Nowhere in the state has the mercury cracked 100 degrees.

Truth be told, New Jersey’s summer has been decidedly average. But average has been hard to come by in recent years.

“I understand the perception. People are telling me left and right that it’s been cold,” said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University. “It’s perception playing tricks on you.”

By virtually every measure, summer has behaved exactly as it should in New Jersey.

Average temperatures in June and July? Within half a degree of the norm. The number of days where temperatures have been below average compared with the number above? Nearly equal. The number of days many weather stations have been above 90? Within a hair of what’s typical.

Several factors may be coloring objectivity on the matter, however.

Each of the previous four summers in New Jersey, for example, were among the 15
warmest in more than a century of records, while 2010, 2011, and 2012 each ranked in the top six. The four previous summers were also dotted with highly memorable heat events, such as the record-breaking overnight heat that occurred in July of last year or Newark setting its all-time temperature record of 108 degrees during a statewide heat wave in 2011.

New Jersey is also only a few months removed from a brutally cold and snowy winter, one that dragged through the month of March and into early April.

And most recently, cool, dry air from Canada spilled into the eastern half of the country garnering national headlines and producing a record-breaking summer chill elsewhere, though not in New Jersey, where temperatures remained just a few degrees below normal.

“Comfortable and unremarkable, those are the two words you’d have to use to describe it,” Robinson said.

New Jersey’s relatively benign stretch of weather is primarily due to the state being sandwiched between the dominant atmospheric forces in its corner of the globe.

The state is on the periphery of a recurring trough over the Eastern half of the country, which has allowed cool air from Canada to spill across the border, producing markedly below-average conditions to New Jersey’s west.

The Bermuda High, a semi-permanent high pressure system in the western Atlantic
that often dominates weather along the Eastern Seaboard in the summer months and helps produce some of its most sweltering heat, has remained far enough offshore that it hasn’t been much of an influence.

In between sits New Jersey, which has vacillated between warm and cool conditions, though neither terribly extreme.

“Even this weekend, if we were maybe 100 miles east we’d be seeing some pretty significant heat,” said Ken Elliot, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown.
“It’s that close, but we’re kind of in the middle of those two features, getting the best of both worlds.”

While the pleasant conditions may not be ideal for beachgoers seeking a summertime scorcher to balance the ocean’s respite, it has been a boon for many, including the state’s farmers.

“The absence of the hardship is what’s notable,” said Peter Furey, executive director of the New Jersey Farm Bureau.

Furey said while the growing season is only two-thirds complete, crop yields and demand have been strong for state farmers, a product, in part, of amicable weather conditions.

“There’s really a couple of things that we do not like to see in the summertime, and we’ve seen them in recent years,” he said. “This year we’ve had the flip side of all of those things.”

While things can certainly change, there isn’t any strong indicator that the rest of summer will be any different. Rain will further dampen conditions this weekend, and with each passing day in August, the average temperature declines, making it less and less likely that a prolonged stretch of excessive heat will occur before the calendar turns to fall.

“I don’t think there’s going to be notable heat by any stretch. There might not even be a heat wave in August, as hard as that is to believe,” Elliot said. “All in all, it looks like a fairly nondescript month of weather.”

The National Weather Service puts New Jersey at equal odds for above- or below-average temperature and precipitation for August and September. In other words, normal, even if it doesn’t seem it.

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190. tlawson48
3:48 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
America was one of the first places to have a widespread education system that was basically free and open to all (more or less). However, we still run our schools on the foundations of a system that really no longer applies for almost everybody in this country (schooling originally was set up around agriculture - hence the summer break). Couple that with the fact that our lawmakers keep trying to force the same system down everybodys throat and then get angry when not everybody is an A student (even though an taking a kid from "didn't even show up to a C-" is a huge achivement) and you quickly see why things don't get any better.

We all know that education is the best way to save ourselves as a species. Other countries are better at it, because until recently (the last several decades) they were much worse at it and had the drive to do better. The United States peaked in the 1960's compared to the rest of the world. Now we have to figure out how to get that fire back.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 781
189. zotty
3:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Last one from me-

I think my computer is broken. The forecast for While Plains is btx 80-83 for highs and 60-63 for lower with nothing but sun for SIX (6) straight days, starting Thursday.

I like average summers...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 754
188. zotty
3:01 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Different topic- I know the summertime is very difficult to forecast out more than a few days, but what I find so interesting is that the 7-10 forecast has been pretty good as long as you stick to that 7-10 days out. (That applies more to the weather itself, and not the temperature...) It seems it changes 100% within 3-5 days, and then does a 180 and the original prediction turns out to be correct. It is all annoying/confusing/amusing at the same time.
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 754
187. zotty
2:58 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 186. tlawson48:

I think that people want a forty mile per hour wind to behave the same in all instances. When it behaves differently due to different factors at play (direction, air density, local topography, building density/height, tree density/species/leaves or not, ground conditions, time of year, blah, blah, blah) the average person just gets mad. How do we convince everybody in this country to take a vested interest in the weather and educate themselves about it? Tricky question...


LOL unfortunately I think you'd have to start by asking the question of what it would take to get people to get interested in education first, which is to say a vested interest in themselves. Until we get that moving in the right direction, let's not bang our heads against the wall about the other stuff. Quoting P, *shrug*

"The Smartest Kids in the World" by Amanda Ripley has some very interesting observations on that. I'd recommend it to anyone with kids for sure, and anyone else who has an interest in seeing our country succeed.
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186. tlawson48
2:20 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
I think that people want a forty mile per hour wind to behave the same in all instances. When it behaves differently due to different factors at play (direction, air density, local topography, building density/height, tree density/species/leaves or not, ground conditions, time of year, blah, blah, blah) the average person just gets mad. How do we convince everybody in this country to take a vested interest in the weather and educate themselves about it? Tricky question...
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185. Pcroton
1:57 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Mosquitos are just AWFUL today. All that wet ground and pooled rainwater in various spots and now a warm day... obviously a lot of hatching going on. Got bit too many times to count in the few minutes I was outside.

Guess it's an indoor day....as I'm sure it will be no better this evening.
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184. Pcroton
1:52 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 182. tlawson48:

And I REALY hate that fact that the general public cannot determine the difference between these two sentences:

"NWS doppler radar has indicated a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado."

"Spotter information has confirmed a tornado on the ground."

Both get tornado warnings. The former may cause damage, the later alaways does. The thing I hate is that when first one fails to produce a tornado on the ground, the general public bad mouths weather forecaster as idiots and morons and "not worthy of my taxpayer dollars!". Then they drive their SUV's on cruise control at 85 mph in a downpour and can't understand why they hydroplaned for a half mile down the interstate while bouncing off of both guardrails



Well, again, it's all about the proper education of folks. I just don't like the newly adopted procedure of lying as a way to get people's attention. If you're lying about that then you're likely lying about why you're doing it.

Just properly educate people on the hazards. If people don't respond then that shouldn't be an issue.

If people don't understand a 40mph wind gust is a hazard, you educate them that it is, and you don't lie to them and say 60mph is coming when it's not.

It's a terrible way to proceed. We saw the SPC do it I think two or three summers ago where every other day the entire region was in a SLGT risk box and a dozen times we saw MDT - and ended up with thundershowers most of the time. They have since backed off that operating procedure....but as we've seen perhaps too much so.

Not sure why nobody can get it right.

Educate people properly. Those who don't want to be educated....that's on them.

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183. Pcroton
1:48 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Newark NJ Climate reports.....show you can take that "its been cold" trash and throw it out the window. It's been as average as one can ever expect to get in any given month. Last July was a brutal July and is not to be confused with normal.




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182. tlawson48
1:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
And I REALY hate that fact that the general public cannot determine the difference between these two sentences:

"NWS doppler radar has indicated a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado."

"Spotter information has confirmed a tornado on the ground."

Both get tornado warnings. The former may cause damage, the later alaways does. The thing I hate is that when first one fails to produce a tornado on the ground, the general public bad mouths weather forecaster as idiots and morons and "not worthy of my taxpayer dollars!". Then they drive their SUV's on cruise control at 85 mph in a downpour and can't understand why they hydroplaned for a half mile down the interstate while bouncing off of both guardrails
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181. Pcroton
12:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 179. tlawson48:

I hate to say it but in terms of the NWS over forecasting things like hurricanes and blizzards and the like is probably due in part to the fact that people will blithly venture out in weather that can kill them unless the NWS says something to the effect of: "THUNDERSTORMS TODAY PRODUCING LIGHTNING, YOU WILL DIE IF YOU GO OUTSIDE, STAY INSIDE ALL DAY AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. ONLY GO OUTSIDE WHEN WE TELL YOU TO. IF OVENIGHT FOG FORMS DUE TO RAIN COOLED GROUND, DO NOT GO DRIVING ANYWHERE AS YOU WILL DRIVE TOO FAST AND CRASH INTO A DEER YOU CAN'T SEE AND DIE."

The point of that CAPS LOCK rant was that the NWS may also be trying to cover there ass from idiots who can't make intelligent descisions. The same people who assumed that when Sandy was no longer "a hurricane" the fact that the winds were still the same damn speed somehow magically meant that nothing would happen.


With Sandy...by the time the downgraded it those of us who were affected by it never knew this because we had no power.


As to overwarning to get the public's attention I have a solution. Educate the public that a 40mph wind gust can indeed take down a tree and crush your car. We've sensationalized things to the point where unless you tell some 100mph wind is coming they won't care. So now what we have to say something has 100mph winds to get them to jump into action even though we know 40mph is coming?

It's the NWS and NOAAs fault that we're at this stage of public stupidity. Educate people and then when we hear that a 60mph TS is coming we'll know that means damage is coming. Don't instead label a 60mph storm as 80mph to get attention.

I dunno...I don't like where it's headed...and I think the public awareness thing is an acceptable cover for what they're really up to.



Quoting 178. originalLT:

Nice "RANT", "P". Like the late Howard Cosell might have said, you are just, "Telling it like it is!". Yes, that has to be the poorest looking Hurricane I've ever seen, depicted on satellite presentations. And I use the word "Hurricane", lightly.



Thanks. Every so often they get it right. Katrina was a minimal hurricane when it came through South Florida and it brought a lot of damage with it. Today they might label it as a 90mph storm just to "get peoples attention". All it was...was a well developed 75mph storms bringing 75mph winds...which are damaging winds.

If we could just label things for what they actually are and educate people on what that means to them we wouldn't have these problems.

Instead we allow the misinformation to continue....to gain the attention of the uneducated. But again, I think that's all a BS cover for their true intention: Pump the numbers up for future useage.

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180. Pcroton
12:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Air quality alert has been expanding into central NJ and I can attest at the poor quality. A bit of a lung burn during the morning exercise.

Bertha is moving along and tugging the Florida low behind it quicker than modeled. This may limit what North Carolina gets today but it appears precipitation will be backing into the immediate coast at some point. After receiving 15-20" of rain the past 4 weeks in the region I'm surprised at the discontinuation of the flood watches as you'd think anything over a quarter inch would be enough to just pond away on the roads.






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179. tlawson48
12:51 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
I hate to say it but in terms of the NWS over forecasting things like hurricanes and blizzards and the like is probably due in part to the fact that people will blithly venture out in weather that can kill them unless the NWS says something to the effect of: "THUNDERSTORMS TODAY PRODUCING LIGHTNING, YOU WILL DIE IF YOU GO OUTSIDE, STAY INSIDE ALL DAY AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. ONLY GO OUTSIDE WHEN WE TELL YOU TO. IF OVENIGHT FOG FORMS DUE TO RAIN COOLED GROUND, DO NOT GO DRIVING ANYWHERE AS YOU WILL DRIVE TOO FAST AND CRASH INTO A DEER YOU CAN'T SEE AND DIE."

The point of that CAPS LOCK rant was that the NWS may also be trying to cover there ass from idiots who can't make intelligent descisions. The same people who assumed that when Sandy was no longer "a hurricane" the fact that the winds were still the same damn speed somehow magically meant that nothing would happen.
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178. originalLT
12:26 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Nice "RANT", "P". Like the late Howard Cosell might have said, you are just, "Telling it like it is!". Yes, that has to be the poorest looking Hurricane I've ever seen, depicted on satellite presentations. And I use the word "Hurricane", lightly.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7735
177. Pcroton
12:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Thinking we'll go with a new blog entry after Wednesday's weather.... it will pretty much highlight the return to normal temps and calm weather.... so it's not gunna be very interesting.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9319
176. Pcroton
12:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 174. tlawson48:

NWS missed the downpours yesterday afternoon for us until they were happening. They wanted the slow moving flash floods in the mountains yesterday to come south, but that never happened. Instead, the humidity dial got turned up to 11 and we got very localized, very heavy downpours. It would seem today they prefer to include all possibilities as the humidity is definitely there, we just need the trigger.


There was basically a north east wide trigger by that 500mb feature's remnants resulting in several areas that saw convection bubble. Connecticut had some west to east training cells that created a lot of flood problems.

They had mentioned in Mount Holly's discussion a day or so ago that the feature would open up and multiple boundaries and vorticies would pour out of it and move eastward. So somebody saw the triggers coming. Nobody kept up with that a day later it would seem and then we saw everything erupt yesterday afternoon.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9319
175. Pcroton
12:04 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 169. wxgeek723:

This is just absolute madness. The fact that anyone can defend the NHC's decision to still call this a hurricane at this point is absurd.


Well they're just making good on their promise to forecast aggressively in order to make the public aware of threats.

At least that's the crap they fed us several years ago before they went full bore on naming systems that don't yet qualify as tropical cyclones, maintaing open troughs as tropical cyclones, and assigning storm intensities based on the highest wind gust they can find in any thunderstorm even if it's several hundred miles from the center of circulation.

There's only one logical explanation for it: Agenda.

There's only one gain in either prematurely upgrading a system or maintaining it when it no longer qualifies as a system: Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

The ACE for Bertha will likely be double what it "should" be if it were properly maintained.

We'd also be at a season of 2 named storms and 1 hurricane... but now we have 2 named storms and 2 hurricanes.

Do these numbers really matter? Only when ten years later you're plotting graphs with a particular purpose or agenda in mind.

That makes it political and no longer science.

Yet we've seen this problem grow with every facet of weather. Part of it is the "reality tv" melodramatics that everyone wants to apply to every form of life these days. Part of it is agenda. None of it is pure science anymore.

We saw the same problems but by the "other community" all summer long with the "polar vortex" and "extreme cold coming" and whatnot only to see our temps dip 2-5F after each of 4 of the 5 cold fronts that were highly advertised as deep polar airmasses. So well...everyone's lost their damn minds finally...and taken the science and flushed it down the toilet and pursued the purely agenda driven political nature of science - which of course has to do with money - in the form of relevence, grant money, increased taxes on any energy useage, and hikes of weather related insurance.

It seems our wonderful hobby and connection to nature has been twisted into an advertisement meant to justify the procuring of money....and also used as an argument against such continued increases and changes.


I like the weather. I like the storms. I'm tired of the money grabbers and now I'm tired of the anti-cc people as well. They all stink and they're all infected with the same virus and they're all content to fight with each other. If this stupid country would stop wasting it's time and energy on this crap maybe by now we'd have more sophisticated weather equipment in place to aide in forecasting and actual science. We'd have advanced satellites in play. We'd have better computer models. We'd have a fully functioning observation network on land and sea and perhaps even in the air by now. Instead while all that crumbles to pre-1990 levels and beyond....everyone else is content to argue about warming and cooling and have resorted to lying and manipulation of records to try to prove their point....which is just all about the money and who gets to have it.

Hate this crap. And yes, the NHC doing this stupid crap with storms is all a part of NOAA's desire to make the climate situation look as dire as possible - and in times of calm - make it look not so calm.

The worst part of all of this? It will _NEVER_ stop. Ever. Each new day will bring forth more of a challenge for those of us who just want to follow the weather as we have to sift through more and more crap - and spend more time validating an information source as real or manipulated (cooled or warmed, weakened or strengthened) when we go to analyze the weather ourselves.

If it were up to me I'd line them all up and march them into a volcano.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9319
174. tlawson48
11:54 AM GMT on August 05, 2014
NWS missed the downpours yesterday afternoon for us until they were happening. They wanted the slow moving flash floods in the mountains yesterday to come south, but that never happened. Instead, the humidity dial got turned up to 11 and we got very localized, very heavy downpours. It would seem today they prefer to include all possibilities as the humidity is definitely there, we just need the trigger.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 781
173. Pcroton
11:47 AM GMT on August 05, 2014
The HPC is confusing. They're calling for rain throughout the north east and mid atlantic today. Not happening. Our weather along the coastal plain comes tomorrow. The SPC has also done the same (post 172). I don't understand what they're trying to do here with the front against the coast and a low right off of NJ like this and a general chance of thunderstorms region wide. Then on the other hand the QPF forecast matches what one would expect today.

Morons? We'll go with MORONS this time if they can't align their own products in house. But then again we had the NHC maintain a gust front as a tropical cyclone for a day and a half and declare a barely discernable tropical storm as a hurricane for a full day as well....so who knows what the problems are and if/why there's an end game to this ridiculous daily inability to forecast properly let alone on the same page desk to desk or office to office.














Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9319
172. Pcroton
11:34 AM GMT on August 05, 2014
It's going to be fairly warm today and humid. 90F is a reality for many areas. Vapor wise shows us entrenched in the moisture plume. You can see the weak trough over the Great Lakes. While some are referring to it as a strong trough that is bringing cold air the reality is that it's a weak feature and will bring out temps back down to the normal range upon it's passage - of which seems to be bringing just scattered showers and thundershowers at this time. Bertha and the Florida Low interacting a little bit but Bertha is moving too fast to complete any kind of relationship there. The Florida Low did pull away a lot quicker in it's wake than modeled and that's a good thing for rain soaked coastal communities. SPC as we can see is not very interested in our weather.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9319
171. tlawson48
9:37 AM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 170. wxgeek723:


This is a problem all over, believe it or not. The reason you are not seeing this happen in other states is because Maine is fairly homogeneous. Most of the growth in other states comes from 'newer' residents. Many homogeneous areas of NJ isolated from poor areas are faced with slowly shrinking populations as well.


We do have some growth, but its all jammed into the southern two counties and about a 15 mile wide strip along the coast. Most of the coastal growth is high end stuff from out of state, and only really comes into play for three months in the summer. As for homogenous, definitely true in that regard: the county I grew up in is classified as 97.96% white. As are the two counties on either side.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 781

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.