Heavy Rains, MidATL-NE

By: Pcroton , 11:16 AM GMT on July 11, 2014

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July 16, 6AM
Heavy Rains will continue to affect New England today.

Updates begin Post #328




July 11, 2014

Summer Pattern Continues


The summer pattern we've been all too familiar with will continue. This time around we never quite got the front to blast on through. This caused an extra day of unsettled weather resulting in a number of stationary areas of flooding rains but also the lack of a substantial cool down behind the front.



However in keeping with the theme the boundary will return northward keeping us warm and humid with several days of unsettled weather coming into the picture after a brief period of drier weather this weekend. Once again an upper level low will move across Canada and drag a slow moving cold front into the region.



This will result in daily showers and thunderstorms possibly peaking as severe weather on Tuesday. Rainfall amounts look quite high and this is the result of several disturbances that are expected to develop along the frontal boundary. These are always difficult to pinpoint and their locations and number can change which would alter the overall QPF forecasts.







While there has been chatter of a coming ice age during the week among the private forecasting community, as has been the case with the two previous attempts to bring such historically cold weather to the region with the last being July 4th through July 11th, the GFS model clearly was overdone and I believe as we near the event we will see this moderate further than it already has. The GFS on its own has been a cool outlier at nights since spring and has rarely verified.

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375. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:40 AM GMT on July 17, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
374. cooldogs13
11:05 AM GMT on July 17, 2014
It did get down to the low 60s but it's defiantly not cool dry air it's more like cool wet air. We have a current temp of 63 and a dew point of 62. It's very sticky outside
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373. goofyrider
2:17 AM GMT on July 17, 2014
Wait for it.   Ps  this was to be a bread basket chill.  
So it's night where is the lightning thunder?
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372. cooldogs13
12:14 AM GMT on July 17, 2014
Only .2 here today making our 3 day total 7 inches

7/14 2.2
7/15 4.6
7/16 0.2
= 7
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371. cooldogs13
11:33 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Wow I was just copy and pasting the link for that map lol low to mid 60s isn't that crazy cold here at NJ coast at night for this time of year

this is for Atlantic city which Gary s has hitting 64 Thurs am
monthly averages for july for ATL city

High Avg. 81
Low Avg.70
High Record 101 (1999)
Low record 53 (1988)

so the forecast is 6 degrees below average low and nowhere close to record almost 11 degrees higher. Guess were not breaking any 26 year records this time around
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370. Pcroton
11:20 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
I think Gary S may be taking a bit of a poke at the whole artic outbreak drama.


Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 4h

An intense surge of comfortable temperatures is sweeping across the region. Here are Thu AM low temperatures. Enjoy!




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12858
369. Pcroton
10:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
One decent way to see exactly how much of an impact a weather system is having on the temperatures....is the 24hr differential.


When we get into the fall and we start getting those big warm up and cool downs ahead and behind the stronger frontal systems it's common to see temps change 10-20F in 24 hours...and in the case of the intense systems... 30-40F occurs.


Nation wide temps are ranging anywhere from 7F warmer than this hour yesterday to 10F cooler than this hour yesterday (primarily in the central Rockies).




Tomorrow Morning this product should show us just what finally came to be. Remember, those inital GFS runs that triggered the whole mess had 35-50F below normal anomalies for the central US down into Texas.... which "moderated" to 20-30F below normal hits for us here along the East Coast into New England.

When you think of a common cold front... 5-15F sounds like a safe guess as to what's considered, well, common.

I'll be very happy when one of these does pan out but this was the third time we've seen this unfold in the past roughly...what... five weeks maybe at most. With each one, and this is shaping up to be no exception, we should once again see pleasant but warm weather out of it.
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368. Pcroton
10:54 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
After all that... seasonal temps for an overnight and following day after a frontal passage.





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367. Pcroton
10:44 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Just sooooo stubborn. Look at the vapor. Look at the backward bow in PA. Just shows how this thing all got hung up. The upper levels simply did not live up to the billing and as such we never got the effects of a strong cold front. Notice the upper lows over Canada there they are weak. This thing just had no speed to it. Without that you can't get 20-30F below average temps to come flooding into the region - at any time of year.




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366. Pcroton
10:43 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Kinda on it's way but....this once billed late autumn cold front is anything but. Our first key was last night when the storms rolling East through New Jersey stalled at the immediate coast and starting riding northward along the boundary. Key two was when the heavy weather out by Baltimore and DC stopped pulling east and instead headed north into Eastern PA. Third key was how everything kind of disippated in place. Fourth was no wind this morning. Honestly though the first key was touched on days ago...in how the model runs had already done this twice and failed big. Not sure why the third one was given so much attention. We can see how misrepresented it all was.

STILL all that side there is a clear bonus. There's some nice cooler drier weather out in the Ohio Valley, upper Mid-West and Northern Plains... and the Central Rockies. Hints of things to come down the line.






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365. Pcroton
10:37 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Stubborn....very stubborn...



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364. Pcroton
10:37 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 363. tlawson48:

Still humid and cloudy. Not much in the way of rain today, most of the support shifted offshore. For me: a non-event. I'm the lucky one though, around me, plenty of destruction from yesterday to be found.


Yeah that's how I kind of feel about some of the thunderstorm event's I've missed out on. While it's frustrating to see line after line of impressive weather die off before it reaches me... after reading some of the damage these things have caused in recent weeks makes me not so sure we actually needed it.

A good windy, dark skies, frequent lightning storm would be nice though....within limits. We just haven't had it.

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363. tlawson48
10:04 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Still humid and cloudy. Not much in the way of rain today, most of the support shifted offshore. For me: a non-event. I'm the lucky one though, around me, plenty of destruction from yesterday to be found.
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362. Pcroton
8:05 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
7/15/2014 7:32 AM NJ-MN-64 Howell Twp 3.7 SSW 5.91
7/16/2014 7:04 AM NJ-MN-64 Howell Twp 3.7 SSW 2.52

8.43" in 2 days in Howell, NJ. I believe it too watching the radars unfold both days.



Oh and you can interactively sort those cocorahs lists by clicking on the fields supplied.
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361. Pcroton
7:29 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 359. originalLT:

My two day total was 3.22", with 2.60" of that on Monday. Will be interesting to see how much the various precip. total maps depict for my area.


Hi LT. They're in Post 357. I don't think I trust the maps. Although we have to keep in mind they're not going to do well with the highly pinpoint locations we saw a lot of the rainfall totals hit. These maps are low resolution.

But again, they're not doing their job this go around...they're missing the bigger, or well... micro-picture we know went on.

Same goes for official NWS reporting lists. They too miss out.


Better to check the public reports.

COCORAHS NJ

COCORAHS CT


.
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360. Pcroton
7:26 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
A quick peek ahead reveals that the high pressure coming into the region is modeled to stall along the coast. This could place some of us in an onshore flow and keep temps down in the 70s as a result while inland areas are in the 80s. This is not to be confused with cold polar high pressure. We will be talking about wind direction here if this comes to be. Considering all the hyperactivity surrounding this recent weather event I think it's important that it is known what is causing the weather in order to avoid the uneeded misinformed hype.

Now I will say the NWS doesn't buy the stall - at least not where it is shown - for it has us in the 80s with scattered thundershowers through that period. As seen on this model run if it stalls where shown here then the unsettled weather is kept at bay further to the south and the west along the edge of the high pressure. So this too is something we should watch - for our weather conditions as well.






Then on July 27 another cold front with origins in Canada comes into the picture. So in effect this present cold front, which is taking forever to push through and deliver our promised relief, may be the first of the autumn Canadian cold fronts.


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359. originalLT
7:17 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
My two day total was 3.22", with 2.60" of that on Monday. Will be interesting to see how much the various precip. total maps depict for my area.
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358. Pcroton
7:16 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
84F with a dewpoint of 62F here. It's still warm and humid. As with the temperatures across the state there's also a lot of variability with these readings. Until that upper level environment clears out we should remain on the more humid side. I believe anything above 60F is considered humid. Perhaps these dewpoints come down tonight and tomorrow is a drier day.




At the surface we can see the winds are from the west/north west across NJ....but....it looks like any clearing/soothing winds are around western PA and Ohio at this hour. Forecasts do not bring stronger winds here but that could be where the drier relief is anyway. So we have many hours to go before the true relief comes.





In a similar fashion we can see at the 500mb layer a kink in the jet right around the same region where those surface winds seem to be. And that generally lines up with what we see on vapor that has yet to pull east. So that little kink, that upper trough if you will, is where we might be seeing our relief come through. However as that rotates around the upper low it doesn't just come straight east - it will be lifting northward as it does - so it is kind of questionable here JUST how much cooler/drier we really get.


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357. Pcroton
7:03 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
1 Day and 14 day for New England. 7 Day map seemed pointless to post.




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356. Pcroton
7:03 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
1 Day and 7 Day precip... the website is working poorly. The 14 day output looked barely different from the 7 day.





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355. Pcroton
6:46 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Still some good rains going on in eastern New England but nothing out of control that I can see. Vapor shows us that the upper levels have remained stalled since not just this morning but last night. Moisture remains. Would be nice to squeeze a surprise thunderstorm out of this warm moist air.







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354. Pcroton
6:29 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
It's warm today. I see it's variable through the state. I have 84F here. It's 83F just to my SE at a station there. I see an 84F in northern NJ as well. And a number of upper 70s or lower 80s.

I was promised cold. Historic cold. Never before seen cold. October in January in July or something. Instead it's warm. Still humid, too. This displeases me.




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353. Pcroton
6:28 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 348. tlawson48:



I have a government computer, so we HAVE to use internet explore, version dinosaur, thus I very rarely can see any of the graphics you post. Plus I'm not allowed to have a phone with a camera in my building (every phone on earth has one) thus I can't look at it that way either. It's okay though, it means I actually have to read things in depth to understand what is going on as opposed to looking at pictures and drawing snap conclusions. :)


I'm wondering if your problem is a system firewall. Perhaps they have the site I host my images on, postimage.org, blocked. Shame...90% of my posts are graphic heavy. Pretty much the whole blog!


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352. goofyrider
6:12 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Rain! Did some one mention rain.   Measured 6 inches + from Mon @ 16:00 till today at 12:00.  Two and a half + on Mon. to Tues. and Three and a half + from Tues. to Wed.
Off to the wild lands near Ludlow Vt for the rest of the week.  Temps will be low at night.  Maybe the fishing will be good.
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351. NJTom
2:10 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
I wound up with 1.9 for the entire rain event. Seems we were always just on the edge of the heavier downpours.
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350. cooldogs13
1:43 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
We only ended up with another .1 after 1030pm when I measured. But now we got some good rain this morning after I left for work which I'll check in the rain gauge and update everyone once I get home on the 3 day totals so far here are the 2 day totals
7/14- 2.2
7/15- 4.6
2 day total- 6.8
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349. originalLT
12:47 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
"P", check your WU Mail.
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348. tlawson48
12:28 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 347. Pcroton:


Yep. Also note post 346..the visible image certainly has some good "texture" to the weather thats off the NJ/S NE coast that should funnel it's way up to you.


I have a government computer, so we HAVE to use internet explore, version dinosaur, thus I very rarely can see any of the graphics you post. Plus I'm not allowed to have a phone with a camera in my building (every phone on earth has one) thus I can't look at it that way either. It's okay though, it means I actually have to read things in depth to understand what is going on as opposed to looking at pictures and drawing snap conclusions. :)
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347. Pcroton
12:14 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 345. tlawson48:



That forecast kida looks good to me. Some breaks in the solid cloud deck here could definitely lead to some storms. Front is still stuck though.


Yep. Also note post 346..the visible image certainly has some good "texture" to the weather thats off the NJ/S NE coast that should funnel it's way up to you.
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346. Pcroton
12:13 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
In places where the rain is over... such as NJ/DE... things are still going to be slow to clear and dry out. It's on it's way but clearly this is not a classic fall cold front with the 40mph NW winds dumping temperatures along the way. It just isn't. Outside of the fantasy realm of a few long range model runs and the internet drama that accompanied it (honestly, shame on the few local private forecasters (we know the names) and the usual anti-cc others (we know the agenda) for doing this) it always was fantasy.

Nice weather on the way for a few days? Absolutely. Been the fifth or sixth time we'll be seeing our weather do this hamster wheel of a few days of warm humid and unsettled followed by a couple days of drier and cooler...









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345. tlawson48
12:02 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 343. Pcroton:
SPC looking for a chance of some storms later today in eastern New England.



...NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.







That forecast kida looks good to me. Some breaks in the solid cloud deck here could definitely lead to some storms. Front is still stuck though.
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344. LansdaleTim
11:44 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 341. Pcroton:



You know...I still wonder about the leftover trees from the bad ice storm over the winter. It's amazing how many trees appeared to have made it - but - all those hidden cracks and flaws - will show themselves in a high wind event.

Might see some "surprise tree damage" if we get one of those early fall cold fronts that bring a high wind event along with it.

I was also wondering about that heavy wayward cell that was just poking along kind of out in your area all afternoon and evening. I think it was lost and ashamed to ask for directions. Post #308.






That cell gave a couple rumbles of Thunder and a 15 minute downpour. Nothing more. I think the first faplace freeze or high wind event will see a lot of damage in areas that had the ice storm last winter. I still see trees leaning, fallen branches etc from even a nice stiff breeze
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343. Pcroton
11:44 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
SPC looking for a chance of some storms later today in eastern New England.


...NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.





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342. Pcroton
11:39 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
So where were YOU during the GREAT POLAR HABOOB of ought'14! Can you use "ought" with a 14? Or is that reserved for the single digit years. OUGHT EIGHT and such. Well, it sounds better, anyway.




As has been the case many times all spring and summer the models were too cold not just with the short term nightly temperatures but always with the long term "cold snap" runs. See Post 298.

So much for the dramatics swirling around that mess for the third time in five weeks. Eventually one of the long term polar plunges will come to fruition. We'll all be very happy campers when it does. Always love that first hit of cold.

Still, nicer temps and humidity levels on the way for a few days before we go right back to humid and rainy.
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341. Pcroton
11:35 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 338. LansdaleTim:

Well that was an interesting non-event in the western suburbs. We had probably about 45 minutes total of heavy rain, very little thunder and little wind. Kind of glad that we didn't get more, with all the weak trees in Chester county, if we had, I'd be without power. Seemed like Jersey finally got their storm. Looking forward to this cold front finally pushing all the way through, to drop the humidity/dewpoints.


You know...I still wonder about the leftover trees from the bad ice storm over the winter. It's amazing how many trees appeared to have made it - but - all those hidden cracks and flaws - will show themselves in a high wind event.

Might see some "surprise tree damage" if we get one of those early fall cold fronts that bring a high wind event along with it.

I was also wondering about that heavy wayward cell that was just poking along kind of out in your area all afternoon and evening. I think it was lost and ashamed to ask for directions. Post #308.



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340. Pcroton
11:32 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 336. cooldogs13:



I have actually found that usually the. Warned storms turn out to be duds and it's the stuff the nws dosent put out a severe t storm warning for that usually comes in and clobbers you unexpectedly


Especially around here. I can't remember how many times things looked good and the second they throw up the watch box you might as well throw in the towel and head for the back yard BBQ or the beach LOL.

"They put up a tornado watch? Well, we're not getting anything now."


Quoting 335. tlawson48:

I'm sure the folks that got smacked with a tornado way the heck up in St. Albans were wondering why that wasn't mentioned in the forecast. I think the problem yesterday was the warm front elongated and then draped itself much further north and west than was forecast. As a result the sun cam out and the temps shot a full 10 degrees warmer than they were supposed to. Dewpoints shot into the upper seventies. Plenty of lift and energy from the south. Thus a big fat mess that landed squarely where it "shouldn't" have. But it did, and the front is still there this morning, that much is blatantly obvious.


Yeah, except... you felt that early in the morning judging by your posts. So they should have known. They should have also seen the ever expanding convection and as such warnings driving right up towards the region. Now there was a bit of a disconnect there between what was happening in CT-MA and then what happened in central Maine...but still, the same conditions existed...and there should have been severe watches up - at LEAST through the MA-NH border.

Well, they'll just sweep it under the rug, call it anomalous, and shout at people not to call the polar vortex the polar vortex or something today. That'll fix it. What they can't hide is the damage.

Maine Public Info Statement


Got to sift through a few panes of some random recreational forecast to get to the endless list of damage reports.



Oh, and as you do you'll see what they put their time into yesterday morning... LOL.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN NEW ENGLAND HAVE DECLARED
THE WEEK OF JULY 14TH THROUGH 18TH HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK. THIS
IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF FIVE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS TO
BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU,
CONTAINING INFORMATION ON HURRICANES AND HURRICANE SAFETY.

HURRICANE WINDS AND TORNADOES

BOTH HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS PRODUCE DANGEROUS WINDS THAT CAN
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS TO THOSE WHO ARE CAUGHT IN THEM.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AN EASILY DESTROY POORLY-CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS
AND MOBILE HOMES. DEBRIS SUCH AS SIGNS, ROOFING MATERIAL, AND SMALL
ITEMS LEFT OUTSIDE CAN BECOME FLYING MISSILES IN HURRICANES.
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE CAUSED BY FALLING TREES CAN LEAD TO LENGTHY POWER
AND PHONE OUTAGES.



Yeah, that's important when a real time event is bearing down on you. Besides they already dropped the ball with that. We had Arthur.


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339. tlawson48
11:28 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 336. cooldogs13:


I have actually found that usually the. Warned storms turn out to be duds and it's the stuff the nws dosent put out a severe t storm warning for that usually comes in and clobbers you unexpectedly


Amen to that! :)
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338. LansdaleTim
11:27 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Well that was an interesting non-event in the western suburbs. We had probably about 45 minutes total of heavy rain, very little thunder and little wind. Kind of glad that we didn't get more, with all the weak trees in Chester county, if we had, I'd be without power. Seemed like Jersey finally got their storm. Looking forward to this cold front finally pushing all the way through, to drop the humidity/dewpoints.
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337. Pcroton
11:27 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 319. goofyrider:

Took a quick look around.  Rain gage reports are 2-4 in +, say 3 as an average in the upstream tributary area and nearby Wreck Pond is about 3-6 in from storing water on Ocean Rd.   Tidal outfall is facing struggle till midnight with rising tide.  No letup from precip / runoff.   Full moon is still a factor.



They haven't updated the NWS sites since 8PM last night. Given the nature of this weather it'll be a big hit or miss as to whether or not any of the official reporting stations got under the actual training echoes. The Wall site seemed the closest but it was still outside of the persistent training we saw yesterday. And even with that it was 2.37" at that time of measurement.

Curious to see the extended period maps today..going back through the storms of July 2-3. We've had a lot of isolated training and or stationary storms throughout this period - and there has to be a few folks that got a piece of each and every event. Wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated 10" or more totals over the past two weeks alongside folks that got just an inch or two.

We just haven't had many straightforward systems where there's just a solid line that comes through and gives everyone the same hit. All these pre-frontal wandering cells and isolated afternoon thunderstorms only half a community gets.


Quoting 324. cooldogs13:

Official rain total here in brick, nj at 10:30 pm 4.5 inches for 7/15 also got 2.2 inches yesterday 7/14 making the 2 day total 6.7 inches and maybe more tonight





Interested to see what we got when NOAA releases the official tallies later today. Radar indicated doesn't look too bad here but it's still an overall untrustworthy product that can read too high or too low...or have blind spots and such...all dependant on the type of weather and what settings they have the radar at. Still, it at least gives an indication of where the heavier rains fell.

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336. cooldogs13
11:26 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 333. tlawson48:

I am not naieve (or stupid enough) to assume that a svere thunderstorm warning or flash flood warning is a guarantee of severe weather FOR MY EXACT LOCATION.


I have actually found that usually the. Warned storms turn out to be duds and it's the stuff the nws dosent put out a severe t storm warning for that usually comes in and clobbers you unexpectedly
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335. tlawson48
11:24 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
I'm sure the folks that got smacked with a tornado way the heck up in St. Albans were wondering why that wasn't mentioned in the forecast. I think the problem yesterday was the warm front elongated and then draped itself much further north and west than was forecast. As a result the sun cam out and the temps shot a full 10 degrees warmer than they were supposed to. Dewpoints shot into the upper seventies. Plenty of lift and energy from the south. Thus a big fat mess that landed squarely where it "shouldn't" have. But it did, and the front is still there this morning, that much is blatantly obvious.
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334. Pcroton
11:22 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 320. jerseycityjoan:

The rain keeps coming.  I justed checked Newark's wind for today and yesterday.  Not a single gust either day; top speed was 11, I think.

I am not complaining.  We had some very very hard rain come down at times, as well as periods of thunder and lightening.  Today around 2PM or so was intense.  I even checked the radar loop to see if there was anything beyond red at that time.  While there was lots of red, I couldn't see anything worse.  And yet no big winds.





I had mid 20s with an early outflow boundary and around 20mph in one cell. The rest of the time it was calm...aside from the eight hours of nearly continuous thunder of course.

There were some 50mph gusts out in western NJ with some of the earlier stronger cells but we were a far cry from the multiple rotating cells of the prior day.



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333. tlawson48
11:19 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
I can generally tell by watching the radar trends this month if I have a chane of getting anything (or not) this month. Quite obvious to see that either by chance or the pattern repeating itself that central York county has been an island in the middle of a sea of storms the last three weeks. It's been to our north, west, northeast, southwest, south and southeast. Certainly the chance has been there, but I am not naieve (or stupid enough) to assume that a svere thunderstorm warning or flash flood warning is a guarantee of severe weather FOR MY EXACT LOCATION.

Case in point: on the drive home yesterday we came around a corner on a back road and it looked like a wall of fog was blocking the road. My carpool buddy said, "What is that!?". I said, "Roll up the windows, NOW". Within three car lengths, we went from not a drop of rain to 15 foot visibilty downpour. Ditches overflowing, driveways washing out, etc. A mile later, not raining. No forecast model is ever, ever, EVER, going to be that precise.
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332. Pcroton
11:13 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 330. tlawson48:

Parts of Maine got clobbered. York lost power for the whole night with cars crushed and trees through roofs. St. Albans had a tornado touchdown. Several other unconfirmed tornado reports near East Wilton. Countless washouts up in the mountains and this morning is still insanely humid and warmer than yesterday morning!


Posts 282 and 284...

Yeah it looked genuine.

The SPC/NWS failed miserably up north. When NYC was getting clobbered around 2-3 in the afternoon they started expanding flood warnings NE out of the severe thunderstorm watch box all the way up into MASS. At that time I thought they should have thrown up a watch box all the way north. They didn't but all day long severe warnings lit up CT, Mass, NH, and Maine. Don't know why they were so stubborn about it. How many counties need to be warned before they realize there should have been a watch? Not that....these products change the weather or anything. Yet I just felt like they were not giving attention outside of the severe thunderstorm watches they had going in the Mid-Atlantic.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12858
331. Pcroton
11:10 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 322. NumberWise:

Pcroton, on a busy day this blog is better than the reality shows or soap operas! I keep coming back for the next installment. I enjoy following a weather event as you write about it, supplemented with those wonderful graphics. You're a great teacher.

Our own Thoughtsteader (Shoreacres/Linda) has an interesting and enjoyable post on her Wordpress blog - Schooled by Summer. She addresses some of the human elements of weather forecasting, as you often do, too. I think you and the others who hang out here would enjoy reading it.


Thanks.

Cool article. Makes a lot of good points.



I’ll refer to buoys by name, and dissect computer models as though understanding their mysteries confers power to steer the winds.


All too true...amazing how often it seems like there is an attempt to pick the "right model" for the coming weather - as if it is the model that drives the weather.




Those who depend solely on data to make their predictions often appear fussy and argumentative, comparing notes and dissecting theories in a twenty-first century version of shaking beaded gourds to ward off the storm gods


That's another truth that has just overtaken the online weather communities. Worse off I think today's kids who are studying to become the next generation of meterologists are being raised to read models and not the weather itself. I am happy to have had an interest in weather and grow up in the time before widespread computer use. I learned about the weather before I learned about computers...and even when I first learned about computers there was no public access to models and maps and such. I think my first encounter there was with a program called weatherbrief. Dialed into the BBS, downloaded an hours old radar composite image which took minutes upon minutes to build on your screen. Prior to that only the Weather Channel let us know there were these things called computer models and when a hurricane would near land some times they'd share with us what the Lbar, the Vicbar, the Sanbar, and perhaps the "NHC83" was doing. Then the storm would do nothing of the sort LOL.

Today all this data is both a god send and an absolute curse.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12858
330. tlawson48
11:01 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Parts of Maine got clobbered. York lost power for the whole night with cars crushed and trees through roofs. St. Albans had a tornado touchdown. Several other unconfirmed tornado reports near East Wilton. Countless washouts up in the mountains and this morning is still insanely humid and warmer than yesterday morning!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
329. Pcroton
10:56 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Quoting 323. originalLT:

Looks like on RADAR now (10:25pm) the precipitation is dying! Most of NJ now dry, and over Pa and further South the echoes are getting weaker and shrinking in coverage.


It was a strange turn of events. Looked like the front just stopped moving last night and when the heavy weather further east pushed on to the north east and broke away it's like everything to the south west of it just croaked. I guess the support was with that other precip...and when the front decided to stop moving it stopped providing lift.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12858
328. Pcroton
10:51 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Good Morning.

Last gasp on the way for us down south? More on the way up north...





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12858
327. tlawson48
10:25 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
No wind, good solid downpour, thunder for about an hour around 1700 yesterday. Rain to my north all night, no rain at home. Don't have to water the plants. But thats about it. Perhaps some more today, we shall see.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
326. cooldogs13
10:22 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Only got another .1 since 1030pm yesterday so were up to 6.8 inches for 2 days well have to see what this next cell brings in and then it looks like we're done
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
325. originalLT
2:46 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
Wow, cooldogs13, I think you win the prize for the most rain received , at least here on "P's" Blog! I think I'll get the "booby"prize!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.