Sunday 30th Coastal Storm - Middle Atlantic to North East.

By: Pcroton , 1:01 PM GMT on December 26, 2013

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Good Morning and Happy Holidays.

The computer models have been pretty awful yet again as we all know. It appears it will be plaguing us throughout this winter pattern.

Quite some time ago the GFS had a series of storms with a decent one right around January 1st. Then it just plain vanished from the maps for days. Now it's back and with aggression.

However it will be mostly a warm system except for interior New England. We are looking for a pattern change just after this system and a potential storm on the 3rd-4th time frame. You can never be sure about the second storm however until the first one is out of the way.


Sunday's system as modeled:














Here is the followup system(s):





















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67. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:58 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
Pcroton has created a new entry.
66. Pcroton
1:53 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
I have created a new blog entry, Folks.

I think it's time...
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
65. originalLT
1:46 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
One thing for sure "P", by Friday, it will be or get VERY COLD!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
64. Pcroton
1:41 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
In regards to snow totals and details of that nature don't expect to see any official maps until Tuesday at the earliest.

This system has been a modeling nightmare leading up to this point. I don't think anyone will be jumping the gun on this system today and releasing solid forecasts or graphics for it.

Some outlets feel they MUST put SOMETHING out there and then it is up to YOU to shrug at those products and texts today.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
63. Pcroton
1:29 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
Good Morning all. I will stick to my guns and say no modeling or forecasting progress has been made. All they've done is lean more towards the warm model runs of yesterday morning - which would explain snow in Poughkeepsie, who if the polar vortex is present where they think it will be, wont see but flurries...and why they've now done this to mine, rain likely:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
SNOW LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
SNOW LIKELY. BRISK WITH LOWS 15 TO 20. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS ZERO.



I got to stress that they are forecasting off of models who are not even yet sampling the disturbances that will be responsible for our storm system. It's completely blind guesswork at this point in time.


There seems to be some conflicting forecasting in that they want both the arctic cold and they want a northward tracking warm low.

You can't have both....and they want both. Sounds kinda like how the TWC and Accuweather wanted the first 10 days of January to be warm and dry both all west coast and all east coast... you can't have both... and if somebody wants to forecast both... they're blowing the forecast.



Wait until Tuesday afternoon or evening for forecasts you can begin to trust - and even then - just BEGIN to trust!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
62. Hurricane614
1:11 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
Quoting 61. originalLT:
Hurricane614, where are you located?, I'm in Stamford CT.


I'm in Poughkeepsie NY
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 503
61. originalLT
1:03 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
Hurricane614, where are you located?, I'm in Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
60. Hurricane614
12:45 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
Well we made progress over night. NWS now saying snow likely, instead of the term snow showers. Of course my weather man is on vacation and won't be able to update frequently. Not here much about snowfall totals either. Uncertainty?
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 503
59. PhillySnow
12:22 PM GMT on December 30, 2013
Steven DiMartino is calling for over 4" snow for Philadelphia. I know it's still early, and that's encouraging!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
58. Pcroton
10:54 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
I agree, LT, and that's what they had earlier in the day. Why shift it like that this afternoon? For what purpose... other than to show they looked at a model run and made a change. Model runs that are worthless right now I might add.

I also agree about the term "Showers", it also to me indicates a scattered pattern of light precip - of little consequence.



Their discussion is no better right now:


THEN THINGS GO DOWNHILL. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST, AND ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NEW JERSEY
COAST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH THE TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EVENTUALLY MERGING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MERGED LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES AWAY, CREATING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA, WITH A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH. THERE COULD EVEN BE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO
ALL RAIN NEAR THE COAST, BUT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. SINCE
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONCENTRATED OFFSHORE,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE ADVISORY
RANGE EVEN UP NORTH. HOWEVER, A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN SO STAY TUNED.

===


Why are they model watching? They had it fine in the forecast. Should have left it. Had it the same way for two days...then today they change.

Tomorrow will be NO better regarding the storm system forecasting and model runs. So we need to accept that.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
57. originalLT
10:48 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
As I've said before, I hate the term "Snow Showers", except when an arctic front is coming thru, or up around the Great Lakes areas. That term to me, signifies a quick burst of snow, leaving an inch or two, not a term I would use with any coastal event, except as it passes and is moving away, you might get this on the back side of such a system. They should say, "a chance of some snow" and leave it at that, for now.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
56. Pcroton
10:32 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Interesting, wxgeek. Temperatures that cold would entirely negate whatever it was the TWC/Accuweather were talking about...which was something I felt was out of bounds anyway.

Also with temps like that it would indicate snow storm on Thursday-Friday.


Hi Peng, thanks for dropping in. Remember, Joe B will always lean cold/heavy on his forecasting, but in this case it may be warranted.



Pickel, the model's problems with this particular storm is the two pieces of energy going into it are not yet on the map or developed enough for them to be well sampled and thus modeled. Therefore the models don't know what to actually do with the energy. This is why I peg Tuesday as a change.

In general the models lack data input. The models themselves are fine it is the lack of data they have to process that causes the problems. When NOAA launched their massive balloon effort encompassing the entire eastern third of the US and western third of the Atlantic, combined wtih continuous NOAA aircraft samplings of the Western Atlantic the models locked in on Sandy damn near perfect. The reason? The data input.

If we had the resources to do that every day all day then the models would be nearly flawless. We need to find a way to duplicate that gathering of data without having to go through that kind of effort to gain it. Satellite sensing or ground based radar collection is the only way - and as of now that technology is very limited in what it can see and acquire and process into useable data.


Speaking of NWS forecasting, keeping track of the evolution of it... well, this is an oddball shift in wording. Snow "Showers". They are obviously forecasting off of each new model run...which is silly.

THURSDAY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20.

FRIDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
BRISK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.


=====

We got to get through tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night, and tuesday morning.... before we start to see the players arrive on the map and the result of the proper sampling of those players. 12Z Tuesday guidance will be the first to start figuring it all out.

Until then...not much point in looking at a model run and analyzing it. You're probably just looking at junk.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
55. wxgeek723
8:30 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
The classic yet bleak "heads up"

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ0 60-061-070-071-101>106-302030-NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTE RN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WEST ERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
320 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME PLACES, WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

Uh forget the snow, are they implying negative wind chills? NOT okay
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3631
54. PengSnow
7:58 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Quoting 51. Pcroton:
Steve with a nice discussion going on his twitter account:


Okay, let me go over some points with this storm in case the video takes forever to load.

First, I want to give a STERN warning about these models. Models do not control the weather. Let me explain what's happening.

Currently the models overall have limited sampling on the Sub Tropical Disturbance AND the Polar/Arctic disturbance for Thursday.

As such, the models are attempting to gain an understanding of the set up with the recent 12Z GFS showing a weak surface low off the coast.

You are going to see a variety of solutions between last night and Monday night because of this.

Don't buy "trends" because they are unreliable.

The Ensemble guidance is colder and stronger BECAUSE they are limiting the error here and as such have a stronger disturbance in place.

Note the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble is colder, with a focus over the coast with significant snowfall.

Still, it's just a model, right? So let's consider what we KNOW.

1. We know that we will have a 500 MB low at 50N/50W. That supports high pressure locked in over Quebec and cold air along the coast.

2. We also know that this type of pattern strongly indicates a faster transition to the coast and a slower storm track.

We also know that this year that Sub Tropical disturbances have ended up stronger than forecasted.

We also know that the Arctic air continues to be modeled too warm and the gradient weaker than reality. THIS TIME WE ACTUALLY HAVE BLOCKING

So when we consider these factors, what the solution should be is a coastal storm with cold air locked down to the coast.

Now the question is if the PV over the Canadian Maritimes is positioned far enough N to support a track to Gulf of Maine OR if the low is forced to track ENE from the Delmarva which would keep the steady snow south of New England.

Given the strength of the Arctic high on ALL guidance, one could make the case for a sharp cut off and suppression.

So now we wait. The best course of action is study the Water Vapor satellite and lean on Ensemble models for guidance of a general forecast.




sort of what joe bastardi and bernie rayno are saying
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
53. PengSnow
7:58 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Quoting 51. Pcroton:
Steve with a nice discussion going on his twitter account:


Okay, let me go over some points with this storm in case the video takes forever to load.

First, I want to give a STERN warning about these models. Models do not control the weather. Let me explain what's happening.

Currently the models overall have limited sampling on the Sub Tropical Disturbance AND the Polar/Arctic disturbance for Thursday.

As such, the models are attempting to gain an understanding of the set up with the recent 12Z GFS showing a weak surface low off the coast.

You are going to see a variety of solutions between last night and Monday night because of this.

Don't buy "trends" because they are unreliable.

The Ensemble guidance is colder and stronger BECAUSE they are limiting the error here and as such have a stronger disturbance in place.

Note the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble is colder, with a focus over the coast with significant snowfall.

Still, it's just a model, right? So let's consider what we KNOW.

1. We know that we will have a 500 MB low at 50N/50W. That supports high pressure locked in over Quebec and cold air along the coast.

2. We also know that this type of pattern strongly indicates a faster transition to the coast and a slower storm track.

We also know that this year that Sub Tropical disturbances have ended up stronger than forecasted.

We also know that the Arctic air continues to be modeled too warm and the gradient weaker than reality. THIS TIME WE ACTUALLY HAVE BLOCKING

So when we consider these factors, what the solution should be is a coastal storm with cold air locked down to the coast.

Now the question is if the PV over the Canadian Maritimes is positioned far enough N to support a track to Gulf of Maine OR if the low is forced to track ENE from the Delmarva which would keep the steady snow south of New England.

Given the strength of the Arctic high on ALL guidance, one could make the case for a sharp cut off and suppression.

So now we wait. The best course of action is study the Water Vapor satellite and lean on Ensemble models for guidance of a general forecast.

Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
52. peregrinepickle
6:40 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
I think part of the problem with the NWS predictions is models that don't take sufficiently into account the effects of air pollution (certain particulates are very good at either suppressing or increasing precipitation near and downstream from a source) the effects of changes in the structure of the atmosphere and in major circulation patterns due to climate change. But the other problem is that some forecasts, at least perhaps regionally, seem tweaked toward the "best possible scenario" when holidays and even potentially busy weekends are involved. Also, there's the tendency to downplay extreme events or anomalous patterns because it might seem to validate climate change. I've heard people in the northeast refer to these reassuring or optimistic meteorological takes as "economic forecasts." I think "economic forecasting" helped screw up the Xmas week storm forecasts, at least in northern New England (a major Xmas holiday destination). I know ice storms are tricky to forecast, but jeez - with the surfaces so uniformly cold, it shouldn't have been all that hard to predict the possibility of just how bad it could be. I imagine there is the same sort of pressure on NWS forecasters from "above" as there is on reporters in major newsrooms to downplay certain things while playing up others.
Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
51. Pcroton
6:28 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Steve with a nice discussion going on his twitter account:


Okay, let me go over some points with this storm in case the video takes forever to load.

First, I want to give a STERN warning about these models. Models do not control the weather. Let me explain what's happening.

Currently the models overall have limited sampling on the Sub Tropical Disturbance AND the Polar/Arctic disturbance for Thursday.

As such, the models are attempting to gain an understanding of the set up with the recent 12Z GFS showing a weak surface low off the coast.

You are going to see a variety of solutions between last night and Monday night because of this.

Don't buy "trends" because they are unreliable.

The Ensemble guidance is colder and stronger BECAUSE they are limiting the error here and as such have a stronger disturbance in place.

Note the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble is colder, with a focus over the coast with significant snowfall.

Still, it's just a model, right? So let's consider what we KNOW.

1. We know that we will have a 500 MB low at 50N/50W. That supports high pressure locked in over Quebec and cold air along the coast.

2. We also know that this type of pattern strongly indicates a faster transition to the coast and a slower storm track.

We also know that this year that Sub Tropical disturbances have ended up stronger than forecasted.

We also know that the Arctic air continues to be modeled too warm and the gradient weaker than reality. THIS TIME WE ACTUALLY HAVE BLOCKING

So when we consider these factors, what the solution should be is a coastal storm with cold air locked down to the coast.

Now the question is if the PV over the Canadian Maritimes is positioned far enough N to support a track to Gulf of Maine OR if the low is forced to track ENE from the Delmarva which would keep the steady snow south of New England.

Given the strength of the Arctic high on ALL guidance, one could make the case for a sharp cut off and suppression.

So now we wait. The best course of action is study the Water Vapor satellite and lean on Ensemble models for guidance of a general forecast.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
50. Pcroton
5:57 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Aqua I put my order in for Lemon Snow....but of course...we already have yellow snow up here for various reasons both animal and human related.



I can see it. We're just grey and very wet up here today.



Philly...the NWS put that blurb in there because the latest model suite came in warmer with sloppily formed systems. I see no reason to trust any model runs at this time and thus any decisions or analysis based off of them. We have seen the I95 corridor line up as the R/S line enough this season to give it merit... I always thought that this Jan 3 system would be the do or die here for our winter pattern.

Hang tight. Got about two days to go before we can start to trust what we see and hear.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
49. aquak9
3:05 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Would ya'll like me to squeeze some lemons into his rain, so ya'll can have lemonade snow?

Right now, it's MY precip. Rain and rain. Looky here-

Link

See? I am keeping it small-sized, maybe it'll be easier on you guys.

Hi P! FOGGY landing, oh let's circle to the east, circle to the west, circle the whole city that I love best, we be circling!
BAM! uh no, we be landing. Where'd THAT ground come from?? TOTALLY FOGGED-UP landing. Any landing you can walk away from, is a good landing, right?

Camera link updates every coupla minutes- just thought ya'll might wanna see your storm in it's infantile stages.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26252
48. PhillySnow
2:51 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
NWS has us with snow Thursday through Friday. There is a discussion of whether there will be warmth that pushes the rain/snow line to the I-95 corridor. This winter has been in a different pattern from the last two, so I'm hoping this current warmth is really a short-term thing and our winter is cold enough for storms to be all snow here.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
47. Pcroton
1:34 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Quoting 45. goofyrider:
The bandwagon is slowly being pulled down Main Street by a team of clodhoppers while the band plays. Behind a gaggle of guys with shovels, kids with sleighs and a forlorn group of folks with ice skates.

What does this mean. Well some snow, sleet, ice and bone chill.

2-6 in with ice is my guess now.

Radars look nasty to our south. This looks good for 1-1.5 in rain. And that will help next weeks fun by putting wet stuff on the ground ahead of the next front.


Good Morning. Thanks for dropping in.

XMas stuff taken down while dry and warm this morning. Looking ahead I think it's the right call.

With guessing the late week system as I outlined above I don't think that's possible... but to field a guess of a mess probably has a high probability of being a successful one I would say.

All about that phasing and timing...these things are so hypersensitive to it that a 50 mile difference in where that 500mb disturbance rolls in - is the difference between a mess and a blizzard.

So we have time. 60 hours! Start the clock.



WESTERN MONMOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD
630 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
AROUND 20.

FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BRISK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S.

THINGS REMAIN MURKY ON THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE WARMED UP WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT
MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. BOTH INDICATE A WEAKER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BEFORE THEY MERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND STRENGTHEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THE GFS NOW KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA FOR NOW WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. WITH THE GUIDANCE
COMING IN WARMER, THIS WILL PUSH A RAIN/SNOW LINE CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE COLD PUSH IS FROM THE
HIGH RETREATING TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON WHERE THIS SETS UP.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
46. Pcroton
1:23 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
Taking a quick peek the 0Z Euro and GFS are somewhat similar but both are opposed to their previous runs....and the previous runs to those oppose those, and so on and so forth.





There seems to be a question of phasing. Yesterday's 12Z Euro had an earlier phase, this 0Z Euro a later phase. GFS has constantly had the later phase or some elongated two-low sloppy system.


I think for now what we can watch evolve over the coming 60 hours is not the end result but the evolution of the kicker in all of this - the 500mb disturbance.










After that isn't much worth watching except to know the disturbance is going to shoot SE through the US and aide in cyclogenesis along the coast - but at this point the models are getting too long range....and too far downstream from the handling of data out west which if you recall all notable forecasters will remind us the data network out west is horrendous and this is why our 3-7 day east coast low forecasting is terrible - because the disturbances modeled up above usually arent quite in the same place by then and the downstream modeling then diverges greatly as a result.

So we're about 60 hours away from good modeling - because by then - that kicker will be in the PAC NW/SW Canada...and we can begin to model it properly from there.


That disturbance must be exactly where it is modeled to be and at that exact strength in 60 hours for the rest of this to be of a reality:








This is why I don't trust models for system like this in the long range. It's an impossiblity to trust. That kicker ends up a slightly different strength and position in SW Canada than modeled at 60 hrs - the downstream errors are gigantic in timing and location of phasing.... and thus is why you're seeing model solutions ranging from blockbuster to messy.

Don't trust the models until 12Z Tuesday - that's when that disturbance will be in existence and able to be analyzed and properly initialized.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
45. goofyrider
1:07 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
The bandwagon is slowly being pulled down Main Street by a team of clodhoppers while the band plays. Behind a gaggle of guys with shovels, kids with sleighs and a forlorn group of folks with ice skates.

What does this mean. Well some snow, sleet, ice and bone chill.

2-6 in with ice is my guess now.

Radars look nasty to our south. This looks good for 1-1.5 in rain. And that will help next weeks fun by putting wet stuff on the ground ahead of the next front.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2790
44. Pcroton
1:04 PM GMT on December 29, 2013
LT, I make it a point to ignore 6Z and 18Z guidance maps until we're within 24 hours of the event onset. They are incomplete runs devoid of upper air soundings.

They are always going to show solutions dissimilar to the 0z/12z runs as a result...and frequently a wildly oppposing solution.

Yes, I do believe Tuesday is when we can beging to trust model runs. Until then they're just pretty maps. :)



Well, we know one thing, it's going to rain today. So that's a plus.








Nice solid 1.25" swath through our neigborhoods.



2 Day QPF Total

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
43. originalLT
11:21 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Hi "P", of course the 18Z has the low on Thurs/Friday, too far East of us to give us much. But this means nothing right now.--Like you said, --if this was Tuesday, I'd be disappointed.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
42. Pcroton
9:53 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
For some reading fun...


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1018 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 04 2014


...BITTER COLD TO INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST...
...INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ATLANTIC
STATES...

THE ANTICIPATED MERIDIONAL EVENT OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE APPEARS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT. USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN
AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST, BASED ON ITS STRONG CONTINUITY
AND THE EMERGENCE OF A DOMINANT MEMBER CLUSTER WITHIN ITS ENVELOPE
OF SOLUTIONS. THE ACCEPTANCE OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH SEALS THE
ONGOING DRY FATE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THE
FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINING VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OF
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.

A ONE-TWO WINTRY PUNCH IS INDICATED BY THE ECENS MEAN OVER THE
EAST--THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWED BY A SNOWY WAVE LIFTING FROM
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MORE CERTAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL
BELOW ZERO IN BOTH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST--INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CANADIAN BORDER
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, AND
NORTHERN MAINE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD NEXT THURSDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE THAN HALF
OF THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEMBERS SHOW UNEQUIVOCAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
PLACES LIKE WASHINGTON, DC, WHERE A "SNOW DROUGHT" OF SORTS HAS
MARKED THE LAST FEW WINTERS. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORTWAVES
OVER THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH FALLS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINE
THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
41. Pcroton
9:50 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Quoting 40. GTOSnow:
Taunton doesn't even mention the late week threat. They are guessing everything will go out to sea well south of us!


You will probably see the storm potential mentioned later tonight or tomorrow morning as it enters the favorable forecasting time period for Taunton. With you beind about 12 hours "behind" in weather evolution compared to us in NJ it makes sense you'd see it mentioned here first, and then there later.


I think if anyone believes they have a handle on the late week sitation they are fooling themselves entirely.

Of course there are only a handful of scenarios that could play out and maybe your one guess ends up being that scenario - but that isn't sound science - it is just guess work.


I truly believe until tomorrow's very strong and weather map dominant system gets out of here that there's really nothing to discuss.

The GFS modeling, which you can follow through this blog, has given us every known solution so far for that system. It shows me the models just cannot resolve any of the energy beyond Sunday's major storm.

Once that's gone and the waters calm the picture is clear and we have a clean slate. I think that is when we can start to look at a model run or two, look for continuity, and run with a forecast.

Until then EVERYONE is guessing. Everyone.

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40. GTOSnow
8:24 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Taunton doesn't even mention the late week threat. They are guessing everything will go out to sea well south of us!
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39. Pcroton
8:04 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Quoting 37. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


exciting week ahead I'll be monitoring


Annnnnd we're off.





That should get a few peoples' attention.

Sticking to my guns though. Not trusting anything until the 0Z Tuesday or 12Z Tuesday guidance tho-.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
38. Pcroton
7:39 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Nature is Angry...





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
37. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:07 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Quoting 36. Pcroton:


Hi Max thanks for dropping in.

Should be an interesting week with all these disturbances.

Sunday's nor'easter. Tuesday's clipper and the southern middle atlantic hit. Then the end of the week coastal storm potential.

I hope something comes of the late week storm...otherwise, at least down here central NJ southward, we're starting to tread on that "Is it or isn't it this winter." territory.



exciting week ahead I'll be monitoring
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
36. Pcroton
7:04 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Quoting 34. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im getting exited. Nice way to start the new year don't you think?
well, if you are a snow lover of course...


Hi Max thanks for dropping in.

Should be an interesting week with all these disturbances.

Sunday's nor'easter. Tuesday's clipper and the southern middle atlantic hit. Then the end of the week coastal storm potential.

I hope something comes of the late week storm...otherwise, at least down here central NJ southward, we're starting to tread on that "Is it or isn't it this winter." territory.



THE LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW ANOTHER COASTAL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK NEXT WEEK AROUND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN THE ECMWF WHICH BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO OUR AREA
AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, AND A COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WELL
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WE GET WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
35. Pcroton
7:02 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Might as well start watching what they're talking about...

Inland Monmouth County (comprises all but the eastern 5 miles of the county)

1037 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND COMBINE WITH ANOTHER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES NEAR OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK,
BUT MAY NOT FULLY AFFECT THE AREA AS A COASTAL STORM MAY MOVE TO OUR
EAST.
====

THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS AROUND 20.

FRIDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

============

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
34. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:55 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Quoting 33. Pcroton:
Here is the secondary system creating the middle atlantic light snow threat:













Im getting exited. Nice way to start the new year don't you think?
well, if you are a snow lover of course...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
33. Pcroton
6:55 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Here is the secondary system creating the middle atlantic light snow threat:











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32. Pcroton
6:42 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Yeah LT...going as far back as we can go the GFS has been all over the place with the second system. I've given up on the guidance for it for now.


Incidentally a secondary little system may give us something here in the Middle Atlantic...while the back edge of tomorrow's system gives folks to your north a decent hit - depending on the NWS office you follow it seems, which appears to be determined by whether they like the GFS or the NAM snowfall. Albany really likes the idea. Upton eh, Burlington, eh. Taunton - hasn't released a map yet.



Regional Offices:












NAM:






GFS:







HPC >2" over 72 Hours






HPC >1" over 24 hours, 12Z Monday -- 12Z Tuesday





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
31. originalLT
2:33 PM GMT on December 28, 2013
Now the 06Z GFS shows something for us on Thursday--a storm forming off the NJ coast , getting stronger and moving NE. I guess as you say"P", we have to wait until this Sunday/Mon. system gets out of the way before the models can handle the next situation.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
30. originalLT
5:34 AM GMT on December 28, 2013
Just looked at the new 00Z GFS, and it shows virtually nothing for us here in the Northeast, next Thurs.-through Sunday --Jan 2-5th, and beyond. But maybe that's a good thing!, if you know what I mean.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
29. Hurricane614
1:03 AM GMT on December 28, 2013
Quoting 27. Pcroton:
Looking at the 12Z Snowfall Maps there isn't much of a snow threat for the area.






This is why I was curious about the HPC having the 1" potential so high even into NYC. The NWS is ignoring them as am I. This storm Sunday is too strong, too far inland, and too warm.


It's Friday we're really watching if we want snow and even then...it's such a poorly and widely differing modeled system at this point...it's not even worth discussing until Sunday is out of the way.

The person who runs http://midhudsonweather.com/ does a great job for the region specific to the central Hudson Valley region.

He's worth reading. He's saying rain. I agree.


Yeah I love that guy. He's my go to.
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 503
28. Pcroton
11:01 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Looking at the latest discussion you can see the mess that is for later in the week. Just forget about it until 12Z Monday guidance at the earliest...better luck with the 0Z Tue or 12Z Tue though.


But, it's still worth the read, they elaborate quite a bit on a few things.



THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ADJUSTED WESTWARD SLIGHTLY AND THE CLUSTERING
PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEES OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE A WET SUNDAY.
WITH A POSITIVE PNA AND A MORE NEUTRAL NAO COMBINATION, THE POLAR
VORTEX HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO DIVE FARTHER SOUTH AND ALL OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A COLD BLAST LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND WITH
SOME CONSTERNATION AS TO WHAT OCCURS BEFORE THAT.



FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, THE LESS I TYPE, THE LESS I WILL BE
WRONG. NON-GFS OP MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN EMPHASIZING MORE
NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED SYSTEMS WILL EITHER TOTALLY SUPPRESSED OR
MINIMALLY INVOLVED SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE OP GFS HAS SHOWN
FASTER PHASING OR INVOLVEMENT WHILE IN REALITY BOTH ENSEMBLE
FAMILY CLUSTERINGS ARE SHOWING ABOUT A 15 TO 30% CLUSTERING OF
MORE VIGOROUS, PHASED SOLUTIONS. THE GEFS (THANK-YOU NICHOLAS
SCHIRALDI FOR FIXING THE WEB SITE) GWO OUTLOOK OF BEING IN PHASE 8
IS ACTUALLY FAVORABLE HISTORICALLY FOR MORE VIGOROUS SOLUTIONS.
AS FOR THE TELECONNECTION SWITCH AT THE SAME TIME, WE`D NEED SOME
ROSE COLORED GLASSES. REGARDLESS WE DONT FEEL VERY CONFIDENT AT THIS
POINT WRT TO BOTH TIMING AND DETAILS. THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE OP RUN, WOULD FIT PRETTY GOOD IN
THE GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. FOR NOW WE ARE CENTERED ON WED NGT
AND THU WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
IN MOST AREAS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE, THERE IS GREATER
CONSISTENCY ABOUT A COLD BLAST MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
27. Pcroton
10:53 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Looking at the 12Z Snowfall Maps there isn't much of a snow threat for the area.






This is why I was curious about the HPC having the 1" potential so high even into NYC. The NWS is ignoring them as am I. This storm Sunday is too strong, too far inland, and too warm.


It's Friday we're really watching if we want snow and even then...it's such a poorly and widely differing modeled system at this point...it's not even worth discussing until Sunday is out of the way.

The person who runs http://midhudsonweather.com/ does a great job for the region specific to the central Hudson Valley region.

He's worth reading. He's saying rain. I agree.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
26. originalLT
10:21 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Hurricane614, I really think that even your area will be mostly rain--maybe a tiny bit of snow on the back end just before the precip. stops.
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25. Hurricane614
7:27 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Good Afternoon.

Sunday's storm is going to be a pain to forecast here. Rain snow line literally looks like it will be sitting on top of me. What do you think for the lower Mid-Hudson valley?
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 503
24. Pcroton
5:07 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Afternoon.

WXGeek that Aug 13 MCS, was that the early morning one where they boldly declared no severe weather would occur east of I95? The squall we were tracking that morning saying it's looking bad? Led to the tornado in Ocean county I think? Or was that another entirely blown forecast event.

I don't like how their office is run. It's lazy. No accountability either and I don't like that.



Doom, I would say DC is in the same boat as south jersey is at this point. Expect a typical winter and perhaps one rogue storm to hit us all good?

I will say there's one thing to really keep hope and that is the very cold air that has consistently returned to eastern Canada this winter. Once these cold blasts set up and drop snow they will continue to find and favor those same regions to return to for most of the winter.

To see such large areas of -30Fs so consistently gives me hope the right link up would provide us all with our one major winter storm. Remember several of last year's failed events were due to no cold air anywhere in the region. This year there IS plenty of cold air to be tapped. That should give promise.

That element was missing the past two winters entirely.

This year what I don't like so far is the consistent nature of I-95 R/S lines (It's a very common thing and yet another feature of winter that once it seems to set up there it likes to stay there) and also the nature of storms - where the inland low stays strong and doesn't quickly transfer energy to the coast - this keeps the storm track further west and helps act as a conveyor to pull warm air far inland and cut off the ability to tap cold air in from the north.

So I think our bigger problem this year is storm structure. The cold air is there, the disturbances exist - it's storm structure. Need more dominant surface coastal lows...with the parent inland lows relinquishing energy much sooner.

That's when we get our blockbuster.



Well, I peeked at 12Z models and it's back to a lazy sloppy storm further East for Jan 3. Incidentally this would put light snow in the DC-NYC corridor and points East...versus the 0Z runs which had a strong coastal low with strong inland low - which pulled warmth into I95.

This system has had zero contunity in modeling and I think it's going to stay that way until at least late Monday into Tuesday. The models just can't seem to resolve anything beyond Sunday's incoming storm. There is no reason to trust either of the solutions that have thus far been presented but I will post it anyway. Look in the blog header, look at post#18, and look at the below map to see what I mean about a total lack of modeling continuity here.

The lone thing to bank on is there will be a disturbance in the region.





Every conceivable outcome has already been modeled for this system over the past few days. It basically means the models have no idea what to do with and how to evolve the energy they know will be there.

So stay tuned on that one...

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
23. doom22015
3:18 PM GMT on December 27, 2013



... One thing to note however is how we're continuing to see the rain/snow line as an I95 event in NJ. Some winters once you get a couple storms doing this the rest (sans one) seem to always follow that line. The one always seems to bomb central NJ while everyone else gets kind of shafted. We've seen this before plenty of times to recognize it.

So the January 3rd system may be important in determining exactly where winter is heading.



P,
I get you being Jersey-centric.
But how about giving me some reason for optimism here in the DC area???!!!!
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22. wxgeek723
3:16 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Mt. Holly made a generic write-up of the surprise winter storm from a few weeks ago. I'll admit that I only skimmed it but I can't find any allusions to the forecast failures.

Also wondering why they haven't updated their event archive at all for this year? Evidently the two March nor'easters, alleged meteotsunami in June, wettest day in PHL history, and the MCS of August 13 weren't noteworthy enough...?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3631
21. Pcroton
2:48 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Good agreement for Sunday's track.

Nogaps would be great...but the nogaps is trash, unfortunately. Interesting the CMC takes a little bump further west along it's track to near Philly..showing the inland low in Canada holding a little stronger and pulling it further inland. This would have implications for New England rain/snow line wise and also wind wise for NJ so it is something to monitor. Canadian has pegged a couple of tricky storms fairly well this winter.



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20. Pcroton
2:41 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
I think one way or another Sunday's storm is exciting because it's pretty strong.

January 3rd should be of high interest not so much because of snowfall potential but I think it may paint a picture of what we can expect during winter's what.. 6 weeks of true winter (for nj).

So far we have seen:

*I-95 being a rain/snow line.
*Inland lows maintaining structure and strength instead of rapid coastal transfer of energy.


Both pieces of information show that central and southern NJ into points south aren't favorable for repeated big snowfalls this year.

As we can see the Jan 3rd storm has a similiar scenario laid out - and if it comes in like that - we might be locked in.

In that it would be a typical real winter for the central and southern NJ regions. This is what we do best.

If this is indeed the case then I would say expect more borderline storms and one good lucky one that hits us good with snow.

As I have felt for some time going back into summer when we had that early summer back breaking cold front in July.... that it was going to be a typical winter that reminds us of some we had in the 80s. The heavy rain nor'easters in December, the borderline storms early January, and a good hit somewhere.

If you live in Eastern PA, Hudson Valley, interior CT and Mass - you should be loving what you're seeing so far....as these are the scenarios that favor heavy snow dumps in those regions.
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19. Pcroton
2:23 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
HPC Snowfall probabilities for the Sunday-Monday storm.

1" followed by 4"








I am interested in why so close to NYC (1") given the warmth coming in.

NWS isn't buying this solution.

Northern Westchester:

SUNDAY
RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND
30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
18. Pcroton
12:43 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Looking at January 3rd you can see why I hate trying to read into models for a second storm following a first one that is strong. They just don't know what to do.

The January 3rd storm is now modeled to be a significant one instead of the weak one as of yesterday. I don't think we can take the late week system seriously until we get Sunday's storm off the maps.

GFS maps below. Euro at same time frame has no system just high pressure.










One thing to note however is how we're continuing to see the rain/snow line as an I95 event in NJ. Some winters once you get a couple storms doing this the rest (sans one) seem to always follow that line. The one always seems to bomb central NJ while everyone else gets kind of shafted. We've seen this before plenty of times to recognize it.

So the January 3rd system may be important in determining exactly where winter is heading.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 59 Comments: 9080
17. Pcroton
12:34 PM GMT on December 27, 2013
Good Morning all.

Yeah Goofy once it sets up it tends to stay that way through the meat of the season. Can't say when the winter back's breaking warmup occurs..usually mid february but we've seen earlier terminations. Just have to watch? Summer's back was broken around July 20th this year! So who knows what surprises come?


No worries Philly just didn't want you to think LT was cancelling winter. LOL.

Incidentally...

Was channel flipping last night and MSNBC had some weather channel guy on.

MSNBC: "So we hear there's a big warmup coming for New York."

TWC Guy: "Oh no, no. When we said warm up we meant 30s."


.....soooo... there's that?


===


Meanwhile this is going to be quite a strong storm Sunday late.













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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.