Heat, Storms, Arthur - MidATL-NE

By: Pcroton , 9:22 PM GMT on June 29, 2014

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UPDATE SECTION
July 6, 2014 - 8AM


Morning updates began Post#441

Heat and Humidity returns to the region today.





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June 29, 5PM

All information and graphis below is static as of time stamp.

A couple of warm days are on the way for the region before the upper low in south central Canada tracks NE dragging a cold front slowly through the region. A tropical disturbance may come into play down the road for the lower middle atlantic in the form of rainfall enhancement and breezy conditions. At this time it's too early to forecast this feature and I would wait until at least Tuesday to begin trying to do so.




Guidance has been shaky recently either overplaying the coastal seabreeze or keeping the far interior mountain regions too cool. Look for some above normal temperatures the next few days but nothing extreme.






The weather takes a down turn with the cold front and perhaps some complex disturbances along it pulling slowly through. There will also be the future of 91L to keep an eye on.




Tuesday and Wednesday could feature some strong thunderstorms.




Later in the week we may be watching what the tropical disturbance ultimately does. It still has a number of hurdles to overcome before we could take any model run that greatly intensifes it seriously. As of now it appears it will be, in any form, a rainfall enhancer and could bring some breezy conditions with high surf to the lower middle atlantic region. I would say modeling confidence on this entity is very low at this time. Until it reaches it's southern most point off the coast of Florida and begins to move northward and develop I wouldn't trust any intensity estimates on the feature. Track wise if it is to hold together and develop it looks fairly certain to strongly influence the North Carolina coastlines before being swept offshore by the frontal system. Let's not get ahead of ourselves and I would wait until at least Tuesday if not Wednesday before really looking into this system.






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450. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:01 AM GMT on July 07, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
449. Pcroton
10:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
CPC likes Steve's idea...but it falls short in where the amplification lies. CPC keeps the immediate east coast under the ridge influence which keeps us warm...and keeps the trough confined the the center of the country where they may be cooler.




The CFS climate model has gone back to being awful...showing the eastern half of the US below normal during the next 7 days when we know isn't even possible given the present pattern. We're going to be above normal. The following week it has the whole US pretty warm which would go against the whole idea. This modeling has been fairly shaky during Spring and Summer going through bouts of being terribly wrong and being on target. It had reached grain of salt territory which is why I haven't bothered posting it much.





The the GFS model gives a hint later in July that a change may be on the way but we can't really see what it may be given it's at 384hrs. Since we're long range we only have the 8AM and 8PM frames.... so these are NOT high temps they are the temperatures at 8PM. If we want to guess maybe July 23rd a front is coming in to cool us down. Could this be triggered by what the Japan Typhoon does? Possibly. Will it be an epic cold blast that lasts long and has us writing the sequal to "year without a summer" as we were led to believe 10 days before the July 4th modeled massive cooldown? Well...just like with that one I'd prefer to wait before I go gaga over the idea. That's always the prudent thing to do and we clearly saw those ideas were just horrible. We had one rainy cool morning-afternoon that cleared to a warm evening. So let's not buy in this time, either, until were close range and it's a certainty.

Last time I mused it was funny we get scolded for posting 10 day snow maps but a 10 day GFS temperature map and running with it as the coming of an ice age was OK. Now we're getting into "its ok to post a 384 temperature map and guess beyond the time frame to fit my forecast idea" territory? So we're doubling down on the past failure? Yeah, I'll wait.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
448. Pcroton
9:44 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Quoting 446. VR46L:

Any thoughts on a rinse and repeat situation ... I notice NHC has designated a Yellow X ... but have not noticed model support


Yeah it's in the right place and right idea but I don't think it's going to have the chance to sit around long enough. Our incoming front middle of next week should move it right along.


Quoting 447. jerseycityjoan:

I feel conflicted here.

I do not wish the fury of Neoguri on anybody.

Nevertheless, I'd love a few weeks of moderate heat and humidity. Just hovering around average is a plus; if we can get some below average temperatures in July and August, that's wonderful.

By the way, every time I see a storm headed towards Japan, I wonder how it might affect the terribly vulnerable nuclear power plants that were hit by the tsunami. My sense is that they've been continued to work at this site but not very effectively. What would a huge storm surge do? Will they get one there?


I'm still trying to figure out how a power plant can lose power and as such lose it's cooling pumps leading to the disasters that occur. Got to wonder what the deal is there.

As to the compromised plant I would think that heavy rains consistently push contaminated ground water along and out into the sea each time they occur causing a new marine plume of radioactivity.

Yes Japan will receive storm surge wherever the storm goes but whether or not it's high enough to mimic a tsunami, well, probably not. I think Japan has something on the order of 50 nuclear plants. With so many all in a tightly packed area they are all vulnerable to a single storm impact. Would guess they are well protected. In comparison I think we have 104 here in the US.



Well, it was a beautiful morning here.




Has since gotten hot and hazy. Topped at 87F and it's humid as promised.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
447. jerseycityjoan
9:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
I feel conflicted here.

I do not wish the fury of Neoguri on anybody.

Nevertheless, I'd love a few weeks of moderate heat and humidity. Just hovering around average is a plus; if we can get some below average temperatures in July and August, that's wonderful.

By the way, every time I see a storm headed towards Japan, I wonder how it might affect the terribly vulnerable nuclear power plants that were hit by the tsunami. My sense is that they've been continued to work at this site but not very effectively. What would a huge storm surge do? Will they get one there?
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446. VR46L
7:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Any thoughts on a rinse and repeat situation ... I notice NHC has designated a Yellow X ... but have not noticed model support
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445. Pcroton
3:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Anyone have a good memory anymore? I used to have a flawless one but I think I left it somewhere in my late 30s.

Steve wrote an article about how the typhoon in the Pacific may lead to a cold 2nd half of July. Curious to see how this goes. Of course weather in one part affects weather in the other but when it comes to teleconnections I find we get a little too caught up in times with it "Negative NAO? Bring on the blizzards! Positive NAO? Bring on mild and dry!"... and well as we know from just this past winter alone - it's more complicated than a singular event/teleconnection leading to a static result on the other end. Sometimes it works and some times it doesn't. I prefer really, rather than make bold concrete statements, to think of these events as raising or lowerling the potential for a specific outcome rather than a 100% given concrete outcome. Gulf of alaska low, no east coast snow, was clearly another that did not pan out as an exact certainty this winter.

North Pacific anomaly means cold summer is another we've clearly seen fault as agiven, although as I like to think about it, it lowered the chances of an oppresive summer, and so far that's been a good result to live by.



Here is the LINK.

Here is the excerpt:


In this case, the typhoon is expected to lift through Japan and into the northern Pacific. This introduction of tropical moisture and latent heat via thunderstorm development leads to a significant amplification of the Polar jet stream. The amplification of the Polar jet stream leads to a powerful trough in the northern Pacific around the Aleutian Islands. As a result, a ridge builds over western North America and a trough deepens over eastern North America. In this case, the amplification combined with other factors in the atmosphere like a warmer stratosphere and a warm northeastern Pacific Ocean can lead to the transport of a rather vigorous Polar air mass into eastern Canada and the United States from the Great Lakes to the northern Mid Atlantic.

As you can see, this type of development leaves open the possibility of July turning rather cool and unsettled once again, especially after this coming week. The influences of such a pattern change can last for several weeks depending on how much heat and moisture is transported northward by Typhoon Neoguri. The evolution of this powerful typhoon will be key in determining what to expect for the second half of July. If you like a hot and humid July, the track of Neoguri will potentially make you rather unhappy.


====

It will be interesting to see what transpires here. We saw the "epic cold July 4th" go pretty well belly up. Sure it was 60s under rainy skies but the sun came out and pushed us to 77. Sure we had a nice 50s overnight but what we haven't had is the suggested very cool weather (going back 10 days when the model run first came) - we had one cool day under rainy skies. The rest have been at or above normal.

We simply don't know everything and I don't like how it's gotten to the point where we seem to read as if we do.

Not everything is an IF ____ THEN ____ result. However it seems like it's been treated that way recently. The results seem to at least differ if not disagree with this black and white logic.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
444. Pcroton
12:17 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Quoting 442. rod2635:



Think snow is a stretch. In the extremes section of the Wunderground site, it lists 32 degrees for the low on TOP of Mount Washington, which is over 6000 feet elevation. Does not seem credible that frozen precip would be present 3000 ft lower.


Thanks for chiming in. Good look checking Mt Washington as an extreme benchmark.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
443. Pcroton
12:17 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Interior regions will see scattered thundershowers tomorrow afternoon. It dries up and lifts out before it hits the coasts. Looks like the coasts see something starting Tuesday afternoon.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
442. rod2635
12:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Quoting 439. Pcroton:



Interesting. Days one and two totals under 0.35 for me and day 3 was almost 0.7. So we did kind of similar in the end.



Wait, is this true? Was it confirmed on the ground in any way?




Temperatures were in the 60s in the region at the time.

Caribou Maine: 04 09:54 SW 5 10.00 Overcast OVC020 67
Frenchville MaineL 04 09:53 NW 6 10.00 Overcast OVC005 62
Millinocket Maine: 04 09:53 Calm 10.00 Light Rain BKN034 OVC060 70



I dunno. Unless we find someone with a picture or witness account I'm gunna call BS on that one. I don't see a 30F drop in temps just driving up a short road. Something else was going on there. I feel a rant coming on.

And with Steve he wants his "cool wet" forecast for the summer to pan out. While we haven't had oppressive heat we've been warm and generally dry...so I mean...seems like any wet or cooler day that comes along or any twitter report of such anywhere in the region he kinda pounces on it. Human nature sure and we all do that to a degree, not coming down on him for that, but it's getting a bit tiresome there. We haven't been cool and wet. Get over it ya know? He did this after he predicted winter to end around Feb 25. Every time we had cold or snow threaten after that he went against it or tried to disprove it was happening with some not so cryptic tweets. "Dry air winning out." etc.

It's like with PAX when people kept trying to keep their "its going west of the Euro" hopes alive when the storm was well East and bombing NJ with snow when the Euro had us 40s and rain. Get over it..your idea was incorrect....adjust! I screw up my thoughts plenty on weather and when it's going different then well heck you adjust. I don't keep trying to post to make it look like it's doing what I want. We all see the same obs and images anyway...kinda funny when you watch someone try to go down with the ship...it's not like you can hide it these days.

It's the weather anyway there shouldn't be an ego to bruise when it doesn't do what you want it to do. It doesn't care about two dimensional graphs with lines drawn on them nor does it care that humans like the Euro model. The weather drives itself. It doesn't pause to look up a model run or our thoughts and then say "Yeah I like that, I'll do that".

People got such a detachment there...as if the weather is controlled by models and theories and gut feelings. We're always just throwing darts here and sometimes we just so happen to hit it. But you can't go and pluck the dart from the board and stamp it into the right place thinking no one is looking and then score it. People sure seem to try though.



That might just be the rant of the day.


Now someone try to find visual confirmation of that "snowfall" so I look like a moron for complaing about it.









Think snow is a stretch. In the extremes section of the Wunderground site, it lists 32 degrees for the low on TOP of Mount Washington, which is over 6000 feet elevation. Does not seem credible that frozen precip would be present 3000 ft lower.
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441. Pcroton
12:11 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Heat and Humidity return today.









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
440. Pcroton
12:03 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Quoting 438. cooldogs13:

P what a beautiful day it was I ended up going down to island beach state park just south of seaside. Went to the beach with the kids and I went In the water it was a little chilly getting in but once I was in it wasn't bad at all. It was perfect hot in the sun but not sweltering with a nice breeze off the ocean and the umbrella up was perfect to keep the sun off the kids and cool in the shade


I kept hearing mixed feelings about beach ventures from yesterday. A few said it was too windy or cold. Others said it was halfway decent.

Today is unfolding to be a very nice day. A little more humid than thought already and it'll be mid to upper 80s. Good beach weather here I think today and tomorrow.

I still haven't made it down there to plunk myself down for a summer beach day. When I do it'll be when it looks perfect. Water warmer. Think I burnt myself out with beach going when I kept going 20-30 times a season for many years. Since Sandy I think I've gone twice to sit and do the whole day type thing.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
439. Pcroton
12:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Quoting 437. cooldogs13:

P I thought it rained more only got .5 an inch from Arthur bringing the 3 day total to only 1.1
day 1 0.00
day 2 0.60
day 3 0.50


Interesting. Days one and two totals under 0.35 for me and day 3 was almost 0.7. So we did kind of similar in the end.



Wait, is this true? Was it confirmed on the ground in any way?




Temperatures were in the 60s in the region at the time.

Caribou Maine: 04 09:54 SW 5 10.00 Overcast OVC020 67
Frenchville MaineL 04 09:53 NW 6 10.00 Overcast OVC005 62
Millinocket Maine: 04 09:53 Calm 10.00 Light Rain BKN034 OVC060 70



I dunno. Unless we find someone with a picture or witness account I'm gunna call BS on that one. I don't see a 30F drop in temps just driving up a short road. Something else was going on there. I feel a rant coming on.

And with Steve he wants his "cool wet" forecast for the summer to pan out. While we haven't had oppressive heat we've been warm and generally dry...so I mean...seems like any wet or cooler day that comes along or any twitter report of such anywhere in the region he kinda pounces on it. Human nature sure and we all do that to a degree, not coming down on him for that, but it's getting a bit tiresome there. We haven't been cool and wet. Get over it ya know? He did this after he predicted winter to end around Feb 25. Every time we had cold or snow threaten after that he went against it or tried to disprove it was happening with some not so cryptic tweets. "Dry air winning out." etc.

It's like with PAX when people kept trying to keep their "its going west of the Euro" hopes alive when the storm was well East and bombing NJ with snow when the Euro had us 40s and rain. Get over it..your idea was incorrect....adjust! I screw up my thoughts plenty on weather and when it's going different then well heck you adjust. I don't keep trying to post to make it look like it's doing what I want. We all see the same obs and images anyway...kinda funny when you watch someone try to go down with the ship...it's not like you can hide it these days.

It's the weather anyway there shouldn't be an ego to bruise when it doesn't do what you want it to do. It doesn't care about two dimensional graphs with lines drawn on them nor does it care that humans like the Euro model. The weather drives itself. It doesn't pause to look up a model run or our thoughts and then say "Yeah I like that, I'll do that".

People got such a detachment there...as if the weather is controlled by models and theories and gut feelings. We're always just throwing darts here and sometimes we just so happen to hit it. But you can't go and pluck the dart from the board and stamp it into the right place thinking no one is looking and then score it. People sure seem to try though.



That might just be the rant of the day.


Now someone try to find visual confirmation of that "snowfall" so I look like a moron for complaing about it.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
438. cooldogs13
12:33 AM GMT on July 06, 2014
P what a beautiful day it was I ended up going down to island beach state park just south of seaside. Went to the beach with the kids and I went In the water it was a little chilly getting in but once I was in it wasn't bad at all. It was perfect hot in the sun but not sweltering with a nice breeze off the ocean and the umbrella up was perfect to keep the sun off the kids and cool in the shade

also found this on Steve d twitter that Arthur was producing backside snows in Maine as low as 3000'

https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/485440949691 363328/photo/1
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437. cooldogs13
12:26 AM GMT on July 06, 2014
P I thought it rained more only got .5 an inch from Arthur bringing the 3 day total to only 1.1
day 1 0.00
day 2 0.60
day 3 0.50
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 388
436. Pcroton
5:51 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Here are the 24 hour precipitation maps. From 8AM yesterday to 8AM today. All included I closed in on an inch of rain for the three days. Majority of it falling yesterday morning and afternoon.










Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
435. Pcroton
5:46 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 434. VR46L:

Arthur, will dump a lot on canada later ... I guess I will go back to tracking ghost storms . as its probably going to be quiet for a while :)


Well...turns out that wasn't no ghost in the end was it. Not only that but the rarity that outlying models proved correct also surfaced with this one. The western track a bit inland. The higher intensity.

So we had two ghost chases this June and the third turns out to develop. Not bad.

I see there's some BOC and SWCar ghost chasing going on and the front that just passed through has stalled off the SC coast which looks to be a prime location this year. So there's little tidbits to watch.

Hopefully now that the first one has come and is on it's way out...folks will have a bit more of a levelheaded approach to the next one. There was a season's worth of melodrama packed into Arthur.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
434. VR46L
11:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Arthur, will dump a lot on canada later ... I guess I will go back to tracking ghost storms . as its probably going to be quiet for a while :)
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433. Pcroton
10:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Here are the temperature bufkits for select cities SOUTH:





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432. Pcroton
10:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Here are the temperature bufkits for select cities NORTH.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
431. Pcroton
9:51 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Pretty average weather next week...albeit it above normal temperatures wise...weather wise we'll be calm and then a slow moving frontal system comes in and mixes it up. These images each taken at peak height of activity.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
430. Pcroton
9:48 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PORTLAND ME...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.41 INCHES WAS SET AT PORTLAND YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.26 SET IN 1974.




NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1053 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION

...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
OXBOW 1.75 1043 PM

...PISCATAQUIS COUNTY...
GREENVILLE 1.75 1041 PM





New Hampshire was just decimated by those storms on July 3rd: This is just a drop in the bucket pulled from the endless reports. The SPC map only showed a few dots. The reports list...is very very long.



0805 PM TSTM WND DMG GRAFTON 43.56N 71.94W
07/03/2014 GRAFTON NH FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HUNDREDS OF TREES DOWN IN GRAFTON...POSSIBLE TORNADO


0435 PM HAIL STRATHAM 43.02N 70.91W
07/03/2014 E2.00 INCH ROCKINGHAM NH



0800 PM TSTM WND DMG CLAREMONT 43.38N 72.35W
07/03/2014 SULLIVAN NH LAW ENFORCEMENT

CLAREMONT POLICE REPORT NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN.


0827 PM TSTM WND DMG LISBON 44.21N 71.91W
07/03/2014 GRAFTON NH COOP

ANYWHERE FROM 25 - 35 TREES DOWN IN LISBON



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
429. Pcroton
9:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Some wind gust reports:


MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
E. FALMOUTH 57 930 PM

...DUKES COUNTY...
3 S VINEYARD HAVEN 51 1031 PM

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
2 ESE NANTUCKET 63 956 PM



Some SUSTAINED wind reports:


...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
E. FALMOUTH 34 930 PM

...DUKES COUNTY...
3 S VINEYARD HAVEN 36 918 PM

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
2 ESE NANTUCKET 47 957 PM
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
428. Pcroton
9:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Some Massachusettes reports from last night: Note the times of some of these reports..they were early and pounding rains were still ongoing...and the numbers are already impressive at that point.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
0133 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT BOSTON MA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.88 INCHES WAS SET AT BOSTON MA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.48 SET IN 1940.



...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
BOURNE 5.30 650 PM 7/04
...BRISTOL COUNTY...
NEW BEDFORD 8.00 1030 PM
...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
PLYMOUTH 7.20 534 PM



RHODE ISLAND

...KENT COUNTY...
WEST WARWICK 3.15 957 PM
...NEWPORT COUNTY...
LITTLE COMPTON 4.40 802 PM
...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
PROVIDENCE/NORTH PRO 2.43 856 PM
...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
HOPKINTON 3.20 652 PM

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
427. Pcroton
9:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Advisories still remain. I'm still confused and concerned at how there were a lack of TS Warnings. Given the radar presentations, the track of Arthur, and the reports coming in from Delaware and South Jersey - I would have expected TS Warnings up to Atlantic City NJ. Then TS Warnings from the East end of Long Island all the way through Maine. For a while there it looked like the inner core of Arthur was going to come close enough to Cape Cod that Hurricane Warnings could have been a possibility for it and any islands to the south. Seems to me like the NWS was just ignoring the system - and this evidence was backed up by the fact that at 4PM ET... the most current forecast discussion was 4AM! This was Upton, Taunton, Caribou... These offices were mothballed and closed for the holiday while an ongoing hurricane was affecting their CWAs.

Really, I don't get that one, and verifyable winds or not north of NJ - well, that never stops them from putting up a wide expanse of advisories in the past.

So many inconsistencies and questions...shows they learn, or are unwilling to learn and change, from the recent past. Be it over dramatizing a non-event, over rating a system using poor outdated technology and methodology, or ignoring an incoming danger... it's always something.

I think the failure to adjust is what get's me most. I don't know if it's an ego thing or whatever...but how hard is it to realize the going forecast is faulting and you gotta get in there and change it?

Well, insert the age old cliche of those who don't learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them. Then just psychoanalyze it for what it truly is and nobody really wants to say: The people who do that are morons I don't care what their degrees are or job titles are.

Well, that's the rant of the day. Rather benign and recycled I know.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
426. Pcroton
9:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Arthur still lashing about although clearly has lost it's tropical identity.








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
425. Pcroton
9:28 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
In the mid 50s this morning. It's beautiful but short lived. Regular old summer back on the way soon enough. No complaints though. It's July we're going to have warm weather.

As for the last time it was this cold around this date I don't recall exactly but about once a decade we seem to get those weather systems that plunk us into the "is it summer" pattern of a few days of 60s and rainy and they all end with that unusually cool morning.


Curious to see how much rain yesterday morning's bonus got us. Up until then, through all the wild weather the past few days, I hadn't even tallied half an inch. Some folks had over five.

Late last night I saw Plymouth Mass had gone over 7" of rain...and it was still socked in on radar.


Venus putting on a show early this morning.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
424. NJTom
2:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Just got in from the fireworks. A very unusual July night here. Cool, windy, no haze, clear moon, trees swaying and shadows jumping around. I could almost imagine trick or treaters marching up and down the street. Can't remember the last time I wore sweats to watch the pyrotechnics, but it was probably about two sizes ago. Looks like a day or two of Canadian summer before we return to regular July.
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423. goofyrider
2:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
0.5 -0.6 in rain here, some winds not bad. Sun caught the yardarm. All is well
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422. wxgeek723
11:32 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
TS warning also seems reasonable for Maine.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

...STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MAINE SATURDAY...

.HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

I understand it will be extratropical but I'm confused - doesn't the new NHC protocol post-Sandy allow them to issue TS/Hurricane Warnings for post-tropical systems? This would be an appropriate time to use it. As for the Mid Atlantic coastline - it probably didn't meet the real criteria, but think of how many times that's happened in the past when the warnings were in effect. Plus as you know it got pretty raw at the beach today and "coming close" is verifying in their book.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1103 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM MARINE TSTM WIND LEWES 38.78N 75.15W
07/04/2014 M51 MPH SUSSEX DE WEATHER FLOW

MULTIPLE GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

0954 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEWES 38.78N 75.15W
07/04/2014 SUSSEX DE 911 CALL CENTER

TREE BLOWN INTO A HOUSE IN OAKCREST FARMS.

1005 AM MARINE TSTM WIND CAPE MAY 38.94N 74.90W
07/04/2014 M41 MPH CAPE MAY NJ WEATHER FLOW

1049 AM HEAVY RAIN LAUREL 38.55N 75.57W
07/04/2014 M3.35 INCH SUSSEX DE DEOS

1049 AM HEAVY RAIN LEWES 38.78N 75.15W
07/04/2014 M3.01 INCH SUSSEX DE DEOS
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421. Pcroton
11:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Looking ahead doesn't require much graphics wise. With the hurricane still affecting areas to the north we'll just keep this blog going for the time being.



Tonight's a nice night but if you're expecting that week old GFS model run of epic cold...forget it folks.

Tomorrow low 80s, Sunday mid 80s, Monday onward upper 80s - low 90s for the Philly-NYC corridor. Unsettled weather reappears middle of next week.

So we're in summer.... don't get caught up in any year without a summer banter. *wink*


Have a good evening....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
420. Pcroton
11:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
That is certainly an issue. Thinking back how many hurricanes rated 75mph produced reports of sustained winds in the 50s with a few isolated gusts in the 70s? Well, all of them really... and then came Katrina rated as a Cat 1 75mph crossing south Florida and they had 75-80mph sustained winds recorded all over the region and gusts over 100.

So there's your "what if one does come along" scenario. I remember after Katrina crossed south Florida how many people were quoted as saying "There was no way this was just a cat 1"

And thats because of what you just alluded to.


I remember in the 80s how often the TWC would do an update and they'd show a storm and say what the maximum winds were, but they'd always say "Yet the HH's found winds up to ____ but they were likely just over here in this pocket of thundertorms so the intensity remains at ____".

Now? They place the storm at the intensity of those winds they used to discount.

I don't know why they do this. The NHC even warned us they were going to be much more aggressive with storms back in maybe 2010 or so and their reasoning was so the public would pay attention.

Well, they kept their word when they were naming open troughs and affixing 60mph intensities to naked swirls in the Caribbean the past few years.

Isaac when it went through the Caribbean wasn't even a cyclone at one point but they kept it 60mph. When it was regenerated and went through the Florida Keys they had it at 60mph. HH'ers reported they could barely find TS winds and the storm had a COLD CORE. NHC kept it a tropical cyclone of 60mph. Obseravations in the Keys were in the 30s sustatined gusting 40s. They kept it 60mph.

Silliness. Agenda driven? Absolutely. What agenda though? They insist it's one for public safety and awareness. I think it's otherwise (Accumulated Cyclone Energy tallies...to be used in climate theory papers).

Hey, upgrade a storm prematurely, that ace climbs faster, no?

And if it's for the public then educate the public on what a 40mph storm can do. Don't call it a 60mph storm so they will pay attention as if its a danger.


Well, not much we can do there can we.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
419. NumberWise
11:05 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Thanks for that explanation, P. It explains the discrepancies, and it also illustrates my concerns about weather forecasting and warnings in general.

So the people in NC who experienced this Cat 2 hurricane will look around and think, "So this is what damage a Cat 2 storm will do." When another similar hurricane comes along, they likely won't be too alarmed, so they won't prepare or evacuate. But what if the next storm really does have 100 mph winds and gusts to 115 mph at the ground?
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
418. Pcroton
11:02 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
And let us not forget about Canada....which is going to take a direct hit.




Tropical storm conditions - early morning to evening Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds of 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur can be expected over the above regions.

These winds could break tree branches potentially resulting in downed utility lines. Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions. Stay away from the shore - the combination of surge and large waves could result in dangerous rip currents and the risk of being pulled out to sea .

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are expected over parts of the region within 24 hours.

Rainfall - overnight to evening Saturday.

Heavy rain is expected.

Hurricane Arthur continues to track northeastward and will merge with a cold front as it approaches the Maritimes tonight. This combined system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to most of New Brunswick overnight and through the day Saturday. Current indications suggest that rainfall will be in the 50 to 100 millimetre range however some parts of the province are expected to receive even higher rainfall amounts with as much as 140 mm possible in the southwest. A change in the track of the storm could push the area of heavy rain further north. If this happens rainfall warnings may be extended to northwestern sections of the province.

In addition, large waves giving pounding surf are likely along the east coast of New Brunswick from Bathurst to Cape Tormentine later in the day Saturday.


Strong winds - morning to evening Saturday.

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Hurricane Arthur continues to track northeastward and will merge with a cold front as it approaches the Maritimes tonight. This combined system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to most of New Brunswick overnight and through the day Saturday. Current indications suggest that north to northwest winds will gust to 90 km/h over eastern and southern New Brunswick on Saturday with potential gusts briefly reaching 120 km/h over Grand Manan Island near noon on Saturday. Rain will taper off and winds will ease across the province by Sunday morning as the system moves out over the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
417. Pcroton
10:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Not reporting much...and the couple of buoys that would give us potentially our maximum wind measurements...are offline/broken/not being repaired.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
416. Pcroton
10:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2014


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
415. Pcroton
10:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2014




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
414. Pcroton
10:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
So our sun came out and it's 77F and muggy. Short lived hopefully.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
413. Pcroton
10:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
The aircraft flies around using instruments to measure the wind speed at the flight level and at the surface. These aren't mechanical anemometers they're some kind of infared or other radar devices. They then use calculations to extrapolate ESTIMATED Maximum Sustained Winds.

Here's the problems. First off they go around and around trying to find the most severe and intense convective signature and penetrate it. They try to find the MAXIMUM winds they can. They then use that to paint a broad stroke of "maximum sustained winds".

This is very misleading especially in very poorly organized storms such as when Arthur was first named. A small convective burst was sampled and they used these to upgrade the system. In reality at that time over 95% of the acerage the storm covered had no winds at all - just that lone thunderstorm and just under it's core.


In Arthur as it was near North Carolina again these "maximum sustained winds" were likely located in a very small region of convection and they are simply estimated by first the readings taken by instruments on board and then calculated.

They just assume a 100mph wind gust at a certain level translates to an 80mph wind gust on the ground (or whatever the actual formula is).

Then when winds dont verify they say "Oh, well the winds just didn't mix to the surface."

Welll...that's ridiculous and we see it 9 times out of 10.

This storm wasn't particularly bad in that regard given some of the readings that were observed yet none matched 100mph sustained nor 115mph gusting so it's still in error.

There is no real solution for this because if you take a stand back objective approach to it... if a thunderstorm in the storm is producing 100mph winds then the "MAXIMUM" winds of the storm is 100mph. And if that thunderstorm did cross over your roof then maybe you do get a 100mph wind.

But again I don't like how they pretend their instrumentation is failsafe and then their calculations are a given. This is a three dimensional atmosphere. Just because you have a set wind speed at say 10,000 feet doesn't mean it's going to automatically translate to say 80% of that at the surface. Maybe the winds DONT "mix down". Maybe your instrument thought it measured 100mph but if we were standing still with a reliable mechanical anemometer in our hand we measure 86mph.

Now suddenly instead of a 100mph hurricane we have 86mph at flight level and maybe only 50mph at the surface because the winds arent "mixing down".

TO me that means it's all estimation and guesses based off of rather archaic instrumentation.

Seems like a lot can go wrong.

Sure would explain why we can have a landfalling 135mph hurricane and the maximum sustained winds found in a narrow point on land was 85mph for a breif period in time.

I just don't like it and I'll probably ALWAYS whine about it too.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
412. NumberWise
10:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
This is something I don't understand. When they say that a hurricane has 100 mph winds, where is that measured? How is it measured?

I kept studying those buoys you posted, but the winds never came near the stated storm strength at the time. I don't know what I should have expected them to show.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
411. Pcroton
9:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
A couple of reports showing we had at least a 75mph hurricane gusting 95mph. But 100 gusting 115? Just can't and we never would find confirmation of such. Do we ever? Do we ever see a storm rated at a specific number reflected on the ground? Should we when we're not measuring the storm on the ground in the first place when we affix an intensity? Just always been a pet peeve.

Yet I've seen much worse verification before. This is actually quite good in comparison.

One of the best was probably Katrina as it crossed southern Florida. It was rated a 75mph storm and they had exact verification on the ground.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
410. Pcroton
9:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Should have had TS Warnings out up to at LEAST Cape May NJ:



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
409. Pcroton
8:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
MODIS imagery can be such a tease due to the polar orbiting swaths the two satellites make. They can both miss a cyclone and get it in an edge of a pass and as such the resolution is poor and blocky.

Looks like the second satellite when it comes soon (already probably did but data not posted yet) might score a hit...and the second one is a few hours later too.

11:15AM:



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
408. Pcroton
8:48 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
The clearing and dry air are coming in quick for southern and central NJ.



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407. Pcroton
8:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
So not for nothing, Joe Bastardi had this storm snuffed out well before anyone, and intensity and track possibilities that Arthur followed well before anyone. He was also the first to be pushing the idea of the hurricane season focus being close to the mid-atlantic and south east coasts.

We'll see how the rest of the season goes but Joe's had a lot of things nailed recently. First to call for winter to do what it did. ONLY person to ignore models putting an end to it in February....extending right into April with the cold and snow threats.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
406. Pcroton
8:32 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Although the winds just aren't strong. Gusting into the 30s in PA and NJ is higher than those being affected by the hurricane at this hour.

Yet we watched those wind reports down in NC do almost the same thing in hurricane warning areas let alone TS warning areas until the core of the storm came near later in the night.

I guess the lack of tropical advisories is due to the fact that tropical storm or hurricane force winds are unlikely.












Still I find it odd that eastern Long Island through Maine aren't all at least under a tropical storm warning at the coasts. I think TS Warnings should have been as far north as Atlantic City as well. Seeing the storm's effects did reach pretty far inland this morning and the storm tracked quite a bit north and west of it's forecasted track when they made these decisions. NWS mount Holly says:

===
151 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

NOW
AT 145 PM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS ABOUT 130 MILES OF
THE ATLANTIC CITY COAST.
WITH THE REGION BEING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM, WE'LL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE NORTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND BEGIN
DIMINISHING. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST, THEY CAN STILL BE EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES.
===




NHC at 11AM: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.




Would that not have met criteria for TS warnings up to Atlantic City? Storm center 130 miles off shore, TS winds extend 125 miles out from center. Not too far south of ACY you were within that 125mile envelope. I am sure the same things are going on from Eastern Long island onward.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
405. Pcroton
8:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Caribou Maine pulling the same crap.



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE...
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST ZONES. PER
CONVERSATION WITH NHC...TROPICAL HEADLINES FOR FORECAST AREA ARE
NOT LIKELY AND WILL CONSIDER OTHER IMPACT HEADLINES SUCH AS A WIND
ADVISORY IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.



Shouldn't downeast maine should be under tropical advisories? Shouldn't NWS offices with a hurricane affecting their weather be updating?




The only NWS office actively updating is Grey Maine....


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE STORM.

.Near term /tonight/...
Hurricane arthur continues to move up the northeast coast this
afternoon... And should track offshore of cape cod this evening.
Meanwhile... A cold front pushed across new hampshire and half of
western maine before stalling near portland/lewiston. Rain
continues to spread across new hampshire and western maine
associated with a deformation zone between air being pulled
northeastward along the front and southward into hurricane arthur.
In addition... An outer band from hurricane arthur is drifting
northward through the southeast new england coast and through the
gulf of maine... With scattered thunderstorms embedded in the
band. This is where the heaviest rain is occurring now and is
expected to occur overnight. This band will likely push to the
northwest and make it to the coast of maine this evening.

Arthur will make a turn to the north as it passes to our east...
Tracking generally toward nova scotia. But the turn to the north
will allow the outer bands to affect the midcoast region longer
with heavy rain continue until morning.

Do not expect high winds or storm surge with hurricane arthur
across our forecast area. The primary threat will be the heavy
rain. Flash flood watch continues until morning when rain should
finally come to an end.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
404. Pcroton
8:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Clouds to my west are pitch black and as they move in our light is really dropping quick. Yet the only thing on radar is a light echo.




You would think an outflow boundary from a severe thunderstorm was marching in. Kinda creepy.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
403. Pcroton
8:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Taunton....you have a hurricane bearing down on the region...and although not landfalling part of your CWA is going to get into the core rain and winds of the CDO... and you haven't bothered to check or update since 10am?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014


...really? Come'on now. And not only that it was an update to tell everyone...YOU WERENT UPDATING ANYTHING SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE



10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES UP
THE COAST. EXPECTED TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS VERSION.



...which happened to be from 4AM?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
448 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014



OK, so you've got a hurricane bearing down on your region, there's a chance part of your CWA gets under hurricane conditions, and you haven't updated your forecasting in TWELVE HOURS.


Cool. (not really). Basically wrote the forecast and discussion at a time when we didn't know the storm would reach as far west as it had impact wise. Well ok.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
402. Pcroton
8:07 PM GMT on July 04, 2014


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
401. Pcroton
8:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
RAP is too warm as usual....but other than that...what a Saturday morning coming up!







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363
400. Pcroton
7:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Quoting 397. NJTom:

Celebrating Memorial Day indoors this year. Did, I say Memorial Day? Temps have got me a bit confused. Glad to finally see some rain to the southeast.
Quoting 397. NJTom:

Celebrating Memorial Day indoors this year. Did, I say Memorial Day? Temps have got me a bit confused. Glad to finally see some rain to the southeast.


Wait until the dewpoints drop. Bone dry and upper 50s temps, dewpoints in the 40s, with 30mph wind gusts tonight?




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11363

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.