Summer is on the way. MAtl-NEast

By: Pcroton , 12:10 PM GMT on June 14, 2014

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UPDATE SECTION
June 23, 8AM


Updates begin Post #213

Monday's Weather hazards from the HPC:



BLOG ENTRY
June 21, 6AM

All information static as of entry.


High pressure sliding off into the Atlantic will exert influence over the region through the mid week period. There were be unsettled weather around the fringes of this feature.



Some southern disturbances will ride northward and then be redirected eastward off the North Carolina coastline while thundershowers are possible along the western and northern reaches. The Upper Middle Atlantic and Southern New England should enjoy fair weather until a cold front moves in from the west.



Around mid week a cold front will sweep in from the west. Waves of low pressure along this boundary could enhance some rainfall in the region.




The departure of this system will put an end to our blocking pattern and usher in more summer time weather.

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237. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:32 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
236. NJTom
6:41 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Quoting 220. Pcroton:

Looks like I inherited your hot spot today cooldogs. Sitting at 87F now. On the map the circled 83 may be Oakhurst, NJ - same station we see periodically report snow/rain totals in mount holly PNS statements. That's a few miles to my SSE.




There's a number of hot spots in NJ - notably around trenton a cluster of 80F and 84F readings showing this is a state wide situation today. Wonder what's causing those.

Yeah I hope we're not heading drought but there's some signs here we may have at the very least some dry weeks ahead...on top of what has kind of snuck in as overall dry 3-4 weeks already.




Lawson: I don't think anything higher than average summer temps reach you. This is more about the upper middle atlantic and southern New England regions I would think.


Even around here I'm not expecting some huge warmup like NOAA/CPC is wanting to show. I'm talking typical heat. Mid 80s or so around my area. It will be considered above average but in all honestly that's only the case because over the years every so often we'll have a week of 60s and rain at any given summer week - thus keeping the "average" temps down to the low 80s for this time of year. In reality mid 80s should be an accepted norm.

90s in the central/southern Mid-Atlantic regions seems likely and they've been having that for some time anyway.


Just summer conditions is all. But unlike the past few weeks I think it'll be more stable and just be warm. Less of this 2 warm days and 5 cooler days back and forth. Just summertime warmth.

I think we can put away the NOAA demand for searing heat, and also put away the Joe B/Steve D call for below normal cool/wet to continue.... for now.

I just don't see either happening. Go middle of the road.




As the summer heats up, there's a very interesting little microclimate that forms maybe 10 miles west of Cape May (I think Dave Robinson in the Rutgers Climatology office once told me it's called Bivalve). Once we really get into the dog days it's often the coolest spot in the entire state of NJ by 5 or more degrees.
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235. originalLT
4:18 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Well Steven D is definitely cool for the up-coming weekend.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
234. Pcroton
3:44 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Gary S is clearly on the heavy thundershowers and then hot weather bandwagon. He's a no fluff/bs kinda guy, and sans his snowmap freak out this past year, I've never seen him try to push the weather to match a forecasting idea. He's a guy that adjusts when needed.










All that said and shown I'm not a believer in the scorching heat idea at the moment. I think summer is coming but I don't know if we're talking 95F with 105F heat indicies in Philly to NYC. Just seems too far fetched.

At the same time Steve D and Joe B just seem to be kind of trying to push their cool/wet forecast to "work" so to speak. Well, we've been relatively dry so the wet bit hasn't worked out at all. We have been overall cool until recently - and I don't see cool prevailing.

Honestly that NWS forecast of Mid 80s seemed about right - but I suspect with Gary's new release we're probably going to see them go hotter.

It may be correct in the end but let's wait and see a little bit before we predict widespread heat stroke casualties...


...In other words, let's wait, and in the meantime take in everything you've seen and heard and divide it down the center - and you'll arrive at yesterday's NWS consensus of Mid 80s for philly to NYC.


Some needs to invent a smart bot that goes out there and troves all weather forecasts be it private forecasters, bloggers, models, nws, twc, accu, wu, etc. Add it all together, then divide by the number of input sources, and then render maps from it.

Wonder what we'd get.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
233. NEwxguy
2:50 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Quoting 229. Pcroton:



The Negative NAO really put a lid on the instability for your region. The cold SSTs from the winter also helps but it's more about that cold being fed into the region than it just being there.

The negative NAO has certainly allowed that to occur. A lot of onshore flow be it at the surface or aloft - or flow from colder Maritime Canada.

Whether or not you get in on this warmer weather we've been having further south - and seem primed to enjoy over the next two weeks or more (mid 80s, relatively dry) is the wind flow.

Just like in Spring we were warmer down here but folks like LT and NEWX were cooler - there was a definitive line around NYC that defined the weather in the region. Now it seems to be more up by the NH-MA-ME border region. Unfortunately you've just been placed north of this line all season long.

I think this system does roll through but the further east it gets the less chance for thunderstorms as it's not just motoring on forward it's kind of taking it's time. You want speed if you want to see different weather come in and kick out the old.

After this system passes we should know fairly quickly if it will put you into summer or not. For us further south it's a foregone conclusion and it's already kind of here anyway. Curious to see how much of New England and eastern Canada gets into the new pattern or whether or not the old one has a quick resurgence.


Yep,been hard to push this weather out of our area,seems like this has been the way since the end of last July.
Until we can get rid of this -NAO, not going to get much warm weather in here,just brief little shots before another front comes through.looks like were going to make it through June with a single 90 degree day,amazing.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15865
232. originalLT
2:43 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Looks like those showers are drying up as they move East.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
231. originalLT
1:11 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Nice little group of showers in NE and East Pa, generally near the Scranton/Allentown area, moving Eastward, wonder if that will hold together and make it into the general NYC Metro area? Or, just dry -out as it approaches.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
230. tlawson48
12:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Here is a scam I hate: during the annual inspection for my car, the auto dealer tells me it's going to cost 800 dollars to fix problem X on my car. If I get problem X fixed, I can drive it for another year until the inspection sticker runs out.

800 dollars seems like a lot of money and the car has 125,000 miles on it. So the dealer tries to tell me that its not worth it, I should buy a new car, with a five year payoff at a montly payment of 300 dollars. So if we do the math: 300 dollars per month x 12 months = $3,600 dollars.

Can anybody see the crappy logic here? Fix car for 800 dollars, drive for another year. Buy new car, spend 3600 dollars in monthly payments. JUST GET THE CAR FIXED!! You'll come out $2400 dollars ahead.

And if you take that money you would have spent on car payments and save for a downpayment on a new car (when you ACTUALLY need it), it will mean you spend less on eventual car payments by probably 50 to 75 dollars a month which over the course of a five year payoff means that you save even more money!

Also, three months or 3000 miles only applies if your car was built before 1980. Modern cars can easily go 6 to 8 thousand miles between oil changes and if you use a more expensive synthetic oil, they can go 12 thousand miles.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
229. Pcroton
12:21 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Quoting 227. tlawson48:

Really hoping for a thunderstorm of any sort for our area. To put it in perspective, from January 1st through the end of June, here is the average number of days with thunderstorm for my area: 8.1 days.

Now the tally for 2014 so far this year (drumroll.....): 1 day. Not a typo, we have had exactly one weak thunderstorm so far this year. 88% below the average of the last four years.

The area SURROUNDING us has had many more storms, but we seem to be stuck in a Southern California sort of weather: sunny, sunny, sunny, sunny, sunny, HOLY CRAP ITS RAINING!!!!, sunny, sunny, sunny, sunny..... :)


The Negative NAO really put a lid on the instability for your region. The cold SSTs from the winter also helps but it's more about that cold being fed into the region than it just being there.

The negative NAO has certainly allowed that to occur. A lot of onshore flow be it at the surface or aloft - or flow from colder Maritime Canada.

Whether or not you get in on this warmer weather we've been having further south - and seem primed to enjoy over the next two weeks or more (mid 80s, relatively dry) is the wind flow.

Just like in Spring we were warmer down here but folks like LT and NEWX were cooler - there was a definitive line around NYC that defined the weather in the region. Now it seems to be more up by the NH-MA-ME border region. Unfortunately you've just been placed north of this line all season long.

I think this system does roll through but the further east it gets the less chance for thunderstorms as it's not just motoring on forward it's kind of taking it's time. You want speed if you want to see different weather come in and kick out the old.

After this system passes we should know fairly quickly if it will put you into summer or not. For us further south it's a foregone conclusion and it's already kind of here anyway. Curious to see how much of New England and eastern Canada gets into the new pattern or whether or not the old one has a quick resurgence.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
228. Pcroton
12:17 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Things are kind of slow and we do like to keep the drama out of this area.....sans going after horrendous forecasting, of course (gotta rant about something)... so I just gotta post a little something here. I'd love to just go off but I'll keep it kind of short.

....


One of many reasons I distrust NOAA when it comes to temperatures, anomaly maps, et al.

In 1999 they released this graph:




In 2007 they released this "new" graph:





They went back and changed the temperature records to cool down the past to make the present seem warmer in order for their theories to remain viable of a consistent global temperature rise.

I just...I just don't know anymore.

What I do know is that when you're talking about grant money and you're talking about carbon/green/fuel taxes and you're talking about new coastal flood insurance premiums - you're talking an unbelieveable amount of money, trillions in fact, being drained out of the common man's pockets and into the hands of, well... theives on an annual basis, the data better look good, real good. It's akin to opening a catalogue and seeing a heavily photoshopped model advertising a product nobody needs. You're just more likely to purchase it and accept the price if the advertising is well done.

These maps, charts, graphs, speeches... they're just advertisements that attempt to justify the appropriation of funding and the levying of taxes to the common man. Unfortunately it seems to have worked thus far although I do see a shift in the pardigm these days.

The same vehicles that allow these folks to get their message out is the same vehicle more common folks are now using to see for themselves exactly what is going on. What more and more people are finding out each and every day is they've been lied to. It's just a matter of time.


Top scams in world history...in my opinion of course.

1) Climate Sciences
2) Insurance
3) Energy Prices
4) Digital Information Prices (cell phone, cable bill, et al)

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
227. tlawson48
12:09 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
Really hoping for a thunderstorm of any sort for our area. To put it in perspective, from January 1st through the end of June, here is the average number of days with thunderstorm for my area: 8.1 days.

Now the tally for 2014 so far this year (drumroll.....): 1 day. Not a typo, we have had exactly one weak thunderstorm so far this year. 88% below the average of the last four years.

The area SURROUNDING us has had many more storms, but we seem to be stuck in a Southern California sort of weather: sunny, sunny, sunny, sunny, sunny, HOLY CRAP ITS RAINING!!!!, sunny, sunny, sunny, sunny..... :)
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
226. Pcroton
11:12 AM GMT on June 24, 2014
Quoting 224. tlawson48:

NWS Gray can't seem to decide if we're going to get heavy downpours tomorrow or not. They keep waffling in the daily forecasts and keep sorta sliding around the issue in the forecast disussion. I guess I can't really fault them, I would rather have a vague mention of heavy rain be tossed out there than what P has been going through with Mount Holly giving him hopeless "pinpoint accuracy" forecasts every six hours that are totally contradictory.


Yeah they're insane down here. They've finally zeroed in on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Be still my beating heart.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...
MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING. LOWS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
225. Pcroton
11:11 AM GMT on June 24, 2014
Yeah something is now entirely disagreed upon in regards to the weather. Looks like either the SPC goofed or I caught them right when they were updating their webpage which put the Wednesday graphic at "day 2 outlook" which was incorrect.

Here's the latest.




...NORTHEASTERN U.S...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
NY/PA. MODEST MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS A MARGINALLY-STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NO
MORE THAN 1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND PROFILES MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELL UPDRAFTS. GREATEST THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
224. tlawson48
10:28 AM GMT on June 24, 2014
NWS Gray can't seem to decide if we're going to get heavy downpours tomorrow or not. They keep waffling in the daily forecasts and keep sorta sliding around the issue in the forecast disussion. I guess I can't really fault them, I would rather have a vague mention of heavy rain be tossed out there than what P has been going through with Mount Holly giving him hopeless "pinpoint accuracy" forecasts every six hours that are totally contradictory.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
223. Pcroton
5:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
It's worth noting the TWC has painted severe weather through NH-VT-northern/western NY - NW PA, etc for tomorrow.... then a general threat of thundershowers points south and east including PA-NJ-CT-MA, etc for Wed/Thurs.

NWS has us just for Wednesday now.

So there's a number of schools of thought to consider. Anywhere from a 3-day to 1-day thunder event. Potentially severe - or marginally severe - or maybe not at all.

Looks fairly straight forward on guidance - outside of some guidance showing the slower start, stall, start again type frontal system advance (yesterdays GFS) versus other guidance with just a steadily moving front coming through Wednesday morning (western areas) and afternoon/evening (eastern areas). Possibly a disturbance along the front enhancing rainfall potential.

Not sure what the confusion is about but I guess we won't have everyone on the same page until tomorrow for the event.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
222. Pcroton
5:56 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
We had two others after that where we were told to stop watering in late June and not allowed to water again until around August. Nothing recent however.


Looks like some rougher weather moves in tomorrow? Seems to be a bit of confusion here to me regarding when exactly the stronger weather - or the weather at all - rolls in. Is it Tuesday, is it Wednesday, or is it both days. I thought it was fairly clear this would be a Wednesday event but I guess not. I know Tuesday could be interesting in the Ohio Valley and western PA/NY... but apparently some think otherwise.

I don't see this happening. This has to be Wednesday's weather.




...NRN PA/SRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

SRN INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN U.S. WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW
SFC FRONT TO SAG TO A POSITION FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER BY 18Z...JUST PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW STRONGEST HEATING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL PA INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND WERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID
70S...SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...MODEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
221. tlawson48
5:39 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
I remember 1999 as a drought year. I was a sophmore in college way downeast in Castine, Me and the lack of water was drastic enough that the town wells were running dry and they would shut off water to the dormitory during the day.

When hurricane Floyd plowed through in September of that year, the drought abruptly ended and we haven't had anything that could really be called a drought since then.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
220. Pcroton
4:50 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
Looks like I inherited your hot spot today cooldogs. Sitting at 87F now. On the map the circled 83 may be Oakhurst, NJ - same station we see periodically report snow/rain totals in mount holly PNS statements. That's a few miles to my SSE.




There's a number of hot spots in NJ - notably around trenton a cluster of 80F and 84F readings showing this is a state wide situation today. Wonder what's causing those.

Yeah I hope we're not heading drought but there's some signs here we may have at the very least some dry weeks ahead...on top of what has kind of snuck in as overall dry 3-4 weeks already.




Lawson: I don't think anything higher than average summer temps reach you. This is more about the upper middle atlantic and southern New England regions I would think.


Even around here I'm not expecting some huge warmup like NOAA/CPC is wanting to show. I'm talking typical heat. Mid 80s or so around my area. It will be considered above average but in all honestly that's only the case because over the years every so often we'll have a week of 60s and rain at any given summer week - thus keeping the "average" temps down to the low 80s for this time of year. In reality mid 80s should be an accepted norm.

90s in the central/southern Mid-Atlantic regions seems likely and they've been having that for some time anyway.


Just summer conditions is all. But unlike the past few weeks I think it'll be more stable and just be warm. Less of this 2 warm days and 5 cooler days back and forth. Just summertime warmth.

I think we can put away the NOAA demand for searing heat, and also put away the Joe B/Steve D call for below normal cool/wet to continue.... for now.

I just don't see either happening. Go middle of the road.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
219. cooldogs13
3:11 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
Yeah p looks like the dry is coming you can already tell here. Grass is browning and is dry and crunchy unless it's wet from morning dew. I was remembering one drought summer with my dad over the weekend. I think it was 1999 I remember going to a Yankees game for my birthday, actually saw David cone pitch a prefect game which was amazing, but I remember a rain delay during the game from a thunderstorm and calling my dad and it being bone dry and sunny is morristown and we were looking back through pictures and I think it was the same summer unfortunately the pic isn't dated but I have a picture of my dad doing a "rain angel" outside the first time it rained for weeks that summer(can't remember if that pic is from 1999 or another summer) but the grass in their yard is just all brown the whole thing. Hopefully this summer isn't shaping up to be like that one from here on out.
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 335
218. tlawson48
3:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
Coastal Maine has had five days this month that have broken 80F. If the NWS forecasts had been accurate, we would have had 15 days at 80F or higher. Gulf of Maine is still running below normal temperature wise and the normal summer southwest winds have been absent or very weak.

Definitely going to have to be a big pattern change to drive the temps well above normal. We also are only 3 or 4 degrees away from the peak average summer temps and the clock is starting to tick on the "game changer" we have been promised since Christmas. As such, I am not surprised that Steve D is skeptical.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
217. Pcroton
1:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
I haven't been following Steve much since he fell off a cliff in February but a quick glance at his twitter seems to show he does not believe in the warmup at all.

=====

Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather · 4h

You know the models are trying to play catch up with GFS MOS guidance drops high temperatures ……
from the upper 80's to lower 90's down to the upper 70's to lower 80's.
Do NOT underestimate the northwest Atlantic trough!

=====


NOAA, we know is ridiculous with painting the map red as if an historical week of heat is on the way.

The NWS has mid 80s for me. They did drop Sunday's upper 80s to mid 80s so maybe there's a little something to it.

At this time I'd discard the NOAA/CPC maps, and I'd consider Steve a little bold on the cooler temps, and maybe just maybe for a change of pace the NWS has it right this time.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
216. Pcroton
12:42 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
Yeah I won't have a problem if we mirror last year and have 4 weeks of peak summer weather before going back cool again. Although we have no true idea if that's the case. What if we go warm and stay there through the end of October? Happened plenty of times. Nothing we can do about that but complain if it happens tho.


It is kind of interesting how some plants completely neglected cling to life and then find a way to flourish. I had strawberries for about 15 years from a single plant that turned into a pretty large patch just 1-2 years into having it. About 7-8 years in it stopped producing...then started dying out. Then it largely vanished and occasionally I find a new strawberry plant popping up somewhere else in the yard...but they dont do well beyond the initial growth. Guessing occasionally I get a quick piece of fruit that I don't see and the animals/insects move the seeds from it around leading to the new sprigs.

Gardening wise 2009 was my last terrific garden crop - every vegetable did outstanding. 2010 was so-so and 2011 onward has been atrocious leading me to cut my garden down to 1/8th the size it once was now...and sticking to the lettuce/beans .. low maintenence items.

This year though when I saw the warmer drier pattern possibly evolving and tested my carrots finding them worthless - I tore those up and went with 8 tomato plants and put a single row of beans in front. They are all doing very well thus far. Maybe after so many years of poor tomato crops I get a good one. The weather surely looks more cooperative for Tomato plants.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
215. tlawson48
12:35 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
Even if it does turn hot into July, we escaped the entire month of June with basically no heat (I think we had one day that hit 87F). I will certainly be able to handle July heat versus the first year I owned my house in 2009 when we had highs in the 60's, 12 inches of rain and tomato blight.

On a gardening side note: the strawberry plant I got on clearance at Wal-art for $1.50 three years ago and spends most of its life either flooded out completely or on the bottom of a six foot snow bank, is doing AMAZING and will probably give me three quarts of strawberries this year. Yay for zero maintenance (wilfull neglect) plants that do awesome!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
214. Pcroton
12:05 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
After the long haul this looks like it's it. Deeper summer time weather will get underway with the passage of this system. Points south of NYC have already been in the warmer weather but we too will see a change towards even warmer weather.

The Negative NAO which prolonged the cooler and wetter Spring weather is subsiding as evidenced by the track of Wednesday's system. The past two days where we've seen the back door boundary in Maine looks to end up the last gasp of this blocking pattern.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
213. Pcroton
12:02 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
OPC did a good job pinning this down from 4 days out.




GFS has gone the way of the NAM in speed/complexity(lack of) for this system so now I think we're on track. Canadian tracking low pulling along a frontal boundary. It's not really a cold front as behind it ushers in summer.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
212. Pcroton
11:53 AM GMT on June 23, 2014
Quoting 210. cooldogs13:

RH levels and dew points were crazy high this morning I think the rh was 98% it was only 72 here this morning and I was turning on the a\c but as the day went on the rh values just dropped dramatically like down to 40% here a little bit earlier. P why did they drop so much especially if we had an easterly flow all day off the ocean I thought that would affect more moisture in?


As the temperatures rise the air expands and can hold more moisture and as such the RH drops significantly. This doesn't account for all of the change but probably the majority of it. The rest is likely the sun drying us out.


Speaking of dry...it's coming. Put down the 2nd app of GrubX today (First is April). After our Wednesday thunderstorms we're going warm and dry. Perfect grub weather.



Quoting 211. tlawson48:

Another cool morning makes four days in a row with lows in the 40's. Concord, NH had a very chilly morning yesterday dropping down to 41F, which was only 4 degrees from the record low. We might break 80F this week, but it will be just barely if it does happen. Wed looks pretty wet.


That's just awesome. We've kind of alternated 50s and 60-62F. Lowest I think was 54F one morning. Saw upper 30s in NW NJ that same morning.

Wednesday is a solid frontal system coming in being dragged along by a west to east traveling Canadian low - which signals the end to our blocking - and as such warmer summer weather invades starting Thursday. Looks dry, too.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
211. tlawson48
10:32 AM GMT on June 23, 2014
Another cool morning makes four days in a row with lows in the 40's. Concord, NH had a very chilly morning yesterday dropping down to 41F, which was only 4 degrees from the record low. We might break 80F this week, but it will be just barely if it does happen. Wed looks pretty wet.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
210. cooldogs13
11:15 PM GMT on June 22, 2014
RH levels and dew points were crazy high this morning I think the rh was 98% it was only 72 here this morning and I was turning on the a\c but as the day went on the rh values just dropped dramatically like down to 40% here a little bit earlier. P why did they drop so much especially if we had an easterly flow all day off the ocean I thought that would affect more moisture in?
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 335
209. Pcroton
11:47 AM GMT on June 22, 2014
Meanwhile it's been a dry 7 days overall for the region. It looks to me as if that may continue although the CPC is calling for above normal preciptation over the next 14 days. Yet I just don't see any evidence of that panning out - and as discussed in a post below - I'm never comfortable with the idea of above normal temps AND precipitation this time of year with this type of pattern. It's usually one or the other that wins out and at this time we know the summer warmth is coming.

Here was the previous HPC 7-DAY QPF Forecast posted on June 14 for the same period of the following maps. They did very well with it...which is why I was surprised the CPC wanted us all well above normal which we weren't. Amazing two entities under the same umbrella (NOAA) just can't agree. But we see it with the NWS/SPC/HPC all the time...for whatever reason.


June 14-June 21

Aside from a specific region getting hit multiple days with some thunderstorms while the rest of us watch - allowing that region to say "It's been awfully wet recently" I just kind of don't see it panning out. They wanted us well above normal for this period and look what we got.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
208. Pcroton
11:41 AM GMT on June 22, 2014
Now I struggle with NOAA every year in how when summer comes they paint the map red as if we're all well above normal...when... it's just summer, as summer has always been, and will always be. We all know their underlying business and I truly believe it effects how they create these maps - as if they're creating them to use as evidence for a certain theory most of us, even those who believe in it, are pretty worn down by and really can't stand anymore.




Aside from that I will use it as a tool anyway.... summer warmth is coming. Apocalyptic end of the world? Uh, no. 80s north, 90s south. You know... Summer? Yeah, summer.

Warm days, warm nights with morning wet dew, humidity, people going to the beach, lawn fungus. Summer.




Typical average summer days as we know 'em. Desire to erect a tin foil dome around your property is optional at this time. If interstate contra-flow travel to Canada is approved I'll let you know.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
207. Pcroton
11:32 AM GMT on June 22, 2014
Our NWS forecasting has gone all over the place...and as it looked all along it was probably just going to be a one day event with a front coming through. They had moved the weather to the wed-thur time frame yesterday and now have it tue-wed.

It looks to me to have been fairly solid on guidance to be a Wednesday event...if anything a very late Tuesday start.


NAM has a more amplifed low tracking through southern Canada and a lone weak front dragging through...while the GFS has the low much further north and weaker with a slow moving stronger frontal passage that enters, stalls, reinvigorates, then exits. Not sure which to accept at this time but the GFS version seems complicated - and with a definitive pattern change coming now (summer on its way) I would rather lean more toward's the NAM's less complex view, minus the really intense low pressure area perhaps and with a more active frontal boundary when it comes through.










Pretty much the NAM acts as if blocking is breaking down and the GFS acts as if it's still present.



I would venture to suggest the modeling is behind the actual conditions unfolding. The blocking is out of here and summer weather is on it's way shortly. Even so the modeling shows you the trend. Blocking has ended/is ending. Door is open for summer warmth.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
206. Pcroton
11:29 AM GMT on June 22, 2014
Not much weather wise today. Some light activity in northern Maine this morning may pop some scattered afternoon thundershowers off. Same goes for Virginia and points south.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
205. Pcroton
11:19 AM GMT on June 22, 2014
Quoting 204. listenerVT:

It was cooler here for the first day of Summer and nobody minded. I could take three months of this just fine.

Beautiful sunset.



It's been nice but it may be finally coming to a close. July will be getting....well, it's July on at least for a little while as it always does.


Well, humid morning, foggy, everything was wet. Makes our low 60s feel about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday's low 60s.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
204. listenerVT
4:52 AM GMT on June 22, 2014
It was cooler here for the first day of Summer and nobody minded. I could take three months of this just fine.

Beautiful sunset.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5518
203. Pcroton
10:52 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
The following, along with many other cool items, come from coolwx.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
202. Pcroton
10:49 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
Quoting 200. tlawson48:

43F at 0445 this morning when I went for my ten mile run. Absolutely beautiful. Now at 1040, we're just about to 70F. Bunch of readings coming in from the mountain valleys where the temps dropped back into the upper thirties. No surprise there as that can happen in July and August.



Some of these temps and dewpoints have been awesome. Another nice night tonight as well. Looks like a bit of a weak back door frontal system is dropping south through northern Maine.




A LOT of small boundaries and features throughout the Mid-Atlantic and North East today.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
201. Pcroton
10:45 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
Somebody at Mount Holly is bored this afternoon. They could always try to develop a forecast and stick to it if they have time on their hands....



SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
553 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

DEZ002>004-NJZ023>025-212300-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
553 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.NOW...
AT 550 PM...SCATTERED SPRINKLES WERE IN THE PROCESS OF ENDING AS THEY
MOVE OUT TO SEA FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
200. tlawson48
2:42 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
43F at 0445 this morning when I went for my ten mile run. Absolutely beautiful. Now at 1040, we're just about to 70F. Bunch of readings coming in from the mountain valleys where the temps dropped back into the upper thirties. No surprise there as that can happen in July and August.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 673
199. Pcroton
1:32 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
The unsettled weather in southern PA/NJ this morning will slide SE. Storms will fire in NC/VA as the day progresses.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
198. Pcroton
1:23 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
Quoting 195. originalLT:

Morning "P", We here in SW CT. had nowhere near that amount, but I know it was above average. Your area more often than not, seemed to be in the "bulls eye" of the heavier snows.


We are certainly the crossroads for active weather here LT.

As witnessed yet again we are affected by both the northern systems (Dec, Feb) and southern systems (each of the four March DC Snowstorms gave us 2-3")...and we get a few bullseyes each year as well (both January clippers netted 30" total!)



Quoting 196. originalLT:

On the almanac page of WU, it says my area will have 15 hours and 8 mins. of sunlight today, and tomorrow will be 2 seconds shorter. Can winter be far behind!


It's on it's way. Steve D says no heat through the next 15 days. If we followed last season that would only leave us with about 3 weeks of warmth - if it even comes.

Ridiculously beautiful this morning. 66F with a 46F dewpoint right now!
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
197. Pcroton
1:20 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
A lot of boundaries and features in our region today. High over NY State. Low over PA/Ohio. A few boundaries around.



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196. originalLT
12:16 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
On the almanac page of WU, it says my area will have 15 hours and 8 mins. of sunlight today, and tomorrow will be 2 seconds shorter. Can winter be far behind!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
195. originalLT
12:12 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
Morning "P", We here in SW CT. had nowhere near that amount, but I know it was above average. Your area more often than not, seemed to be in the "bulls eye" of the heavier snows.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640
194. Pcroton
11:24 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
Article in local paper this morning.... 73.4" of snow fell in Freehold NJ this winter - a town not too far to my west. Article said it was the highest in the region and only High Point NJ, 77", was higher. I know I was around 70" when I kind of lost track....I think we had the two more "almost 3 inch" events when I stopped counting. So this would mean I'm halfway decent with my measurement practices over the course of what was a very long a numerous event (twenty??) season. You always kind of wonder if you're getting it right when you measure the snow storms.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
193. Pcroton
11:12 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
Fully revamped blog header!



And from the concerned department for the tropical season....a weak tropical low is making landfall along the SC/NC border region this morning which will aide in soaking the lower middle atlantic states. This feature will also cause sunny forecasts in the central and possibly northern middle atlantic states to go a little off to more of a mix of sun and clouds.

This low is the second such feature this season to take this kind of a track and it is in line with what several local private forecasters are saying we need to watch for this tropical season along the east coast.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
192. Pcroton
10:58 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
I did a full blog header revamp rather than open a whole new blog entry. The previous blog header has been transferred to the first post of the blog.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
191. Pcroton
10:40 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
Here is the convective outlook for today. The SLGT category in NC is for wind potential of 15%. No hail or tornado threats are listed at this time.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
190. Pcroton
10:39 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
Here's the HPC Hazards for the weekend. The lone change has been Maine getting in on the back door cold front.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
189. Pcroton
10:35 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
Temperature wise we peak around 5PM from Maryland southward... and from Maryland northward (not a typo) we actually peak earlier in the day around 2-3PM - so you can take these maps and add around 3-5F north of say Baltimore and you'll get it about right. Seems to be pretty good agreement here. NWS has finally given up their quest to have me 85F every day for the rest of eternity and has Mid 70s in there now.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
188. Pcroton
10:33 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
Quoting 187. originalLT:

"P", a lot of Partly sunny's and partly cloudy's with a 30-50% "chance" of rain. From Tuesday on. Pretty hard to be wrong with wording like that!


It's almost comical...but I let it drive me crazy. This is how they get their 90% success rate apparently. Haha.

This morning, MUCH to my SURPRISE, it's changed again. They made Tuesday and Friday dry again. heh. Maybe they're forecasting off of analogs :-D


Well, good morning everyone! Guidance the past two days has been good for the morning lows and got it right. Yesterday morning colder than this morning. Not sure why forecasters had it the other way around. You'd expect it coolest the night behind the front this time of year before the rebound.

Another beautiful morning though! Not much to today's weather. A disturbance will affect the southern Mid-Atlantic while some scattered late evening showers along a weak back door cold front are possible in Maine. Inbetween we'll have a mix of sun and clouds.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8648
187. originalLT
4:09 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
"P", a lot of Partly sunny's and partly cloudy's with a 30-50% "chance" of rain. From Tuesday on. Pretty hard to be wrong with wording like that!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.