Thundershowers - MidAtl NEast

By: Pcroton , 11:28 AM GMT on June 08, 2014

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June 12 - 8AM UPDATE

More showers and possibly some stronger storms possible later this afternoon as the cold front finally enters the region. Updates begin Post #130.





June 8 - 7AM Blog Header
The information below remains static as of the time stamp.

Thundershowers - MidAtl NEast

A frontal boundary will return to the region from the south and slowly pass through as disturbances ride in from the west along it. Periods of scattered showers and thundershowers mixed in with breaks of calm will dominate the week.



Judging by the poor guidance and forecasting performance of the last week I would say we can once again expect forecasts to shift around and some days will go from dry to wet and other from wet to dry and back again.

The faults seem to lie in the inability for guidance to pick out the timing and amplification of these disturbances. Last week instead of a slowly moving west to east frontal boundary set up we had a more typical amplifed front sweep through resulting in short lived disturbances affecting the region through the week.

As with the past week the models are again trying to create more of a stalled out zonal frontal pattern with the occasional disturbance riding along it an amplifying it dragging the front back and forth through the area but allowing each new disturbance to still ride overhead.

What we will want to watch for is whether or not one of these disturbances amplifies so much it takes the frontal system right out of the region as we saw occur last Tuesday into Wednesday which took the week long unsettled weather theory out the window.

Here are the 7 day precipitation outlooks. It's notable that the heavier rain seems to be focused more to our west yet the GFS eventually does bring more of that east in the 8 to 10 day ranges.





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176. listenerVT
5:10 AM GMT on June 16, 2014
Quoting 125. Pcroton:



Pretty cool, Listener.

Amazing how the birds handle the adverse weather around the globe.


So true. Once my son and his research assistant were plucked off an island by the Coast Guard in 70kt winds, during which they had to wade out to a Zodiak to be rescued. The birds weathered the storm by simply turning toward the wind and letting it blow over them.
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175. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:10 PM GMT on June 14, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
174. originalLT
3:56 AM GMT on June 14, 2014
Hi Hoy, and "P". Yes, the line or area did expand westward and "thicken" as it passed through SW CT., so we remained in the precip. longer than I thought we would. My total from this evenings rain was 1.30". The precip. in the morning was 0.38". so quite a lot today. I see there is one more line entering NW NJ now, and might clip NE NJ, the Lower hudson Valley and maybe me. We'll see.
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173. Hoynieva
3:26 AM GMT on June 14, 2014
That last one was a sizable storm in these parts. Heavy rains in the morning and even more in the evening, a fitting end to a very wet and sticky week. Now we need the earth to dry out. I can see the plants drooping over from being far too saturated for too long. Looks like a lovely few days ahead :)
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172. Pcroton
12:47 AM GMT on June 14, 2014
Evening LT. I noticed after the initial bit went through your area the rainfall expanded westward pretty quickly thus thickening the line dramatically.

We never had wind. We had a few initial hints that gusty winds were on the way but it never actually got windy. Under 10mph the whole way after the few first 15mph or so "rips" of wind if you will. Thought we were looking at 40mph or so given the outflow boundary and that lower cloud deck zooming towards us. Nothing though.

Heavy rain was the key. Several good bursts of it.

Several lines still to the west - and we've had little popcorn redevelopment crop up and cross over here. Will have to see how those lines evolve - if they break up and it's hit or miss - if they spread out and become more of a steady light rain instead of a quick hit of heavy rain - or what.


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171. originalLT
11:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
A nice solid T. Storm going on now . Good amount of lightning and thunder and heavy rain. Will check amounts when this storm is over. A few wind gusts up to maybe 15-20mph, but nothing more than that. Temp. down to 67F. Baro. steady at 29.78"
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170. Pcroton
11:01 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
On satellite...different story, there's the front coming in.






On other maps it's telling as well... although unfortunate these highly detailed maps take up to 2 hours to render and become available - it's still a great visual. We're just quite a bit ahead of this:





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169. Pcroton
10:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Surface and 850mb winds. Note the intense 850mb moisture transport - and intense onshore flow from Cape Cod through Maine. Our front isn't as well pronounced however to our west at the surface or upper levels.



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168. Pcroton
10:54 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Still nothing frequent or close lightning wise here. A lot of deep rumbling - at least 4 per minute. Renewed rumbles to my south west.



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167. Pcroton
10:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2014






Yeah, uhm... so much for the Mt Holly discussion from 230PM: "worst is over" "line breaking up" "just one line remains" "HPC 0.10" forecast" et al...





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166. Pcroton
10:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
No joke..this lightning is bad. Lightning icon next to human icon in northern NJ a bad thing. Raindrop icons next to human icons is stranded in flooding.

Lot of intense lightning with these storms. Here it's not frequent but there's decent strong rumbles. Pitch black here now. Green sky and also the clouds are doing a lot of swirling within the same low deck layer that's now overhead..pictured earlier moving towards the area.

No warnings other than widespread flood advisories...and the special statement about the strong storms.
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165. Pcroton
10:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Moving in quickly now. Decent amount of thunder. Click each to enlarge.





Winds picking up...
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164. Pcroton
10:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Line developed...and filled in. What pocket is left down there will rapidly fill in over the next 15-20 minutes. These are coming right to the beaches. NO inhibiting factors exist - and any possible ones just got run right on over.



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163. Pcroton
10:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Here's a pic outside. To the right is the more northern better developed cells - as you look left you're looking south down the line to the lower cloud heights - but they are gaining QUICK.

CLICK for FULL SIZED pic:



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162. Pcroton
10:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Steadily increasing rumbles and darkening skies. Rapid development and filling in of the weather continues.




Have been watching this form as the northern clouds are tall, due west clouds are medium, and southern clouds are smaller but growing up rapidly. Very cool.
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161. Pcroton
9:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Here's the key: BUILDING. Very very quickly now.


NJZ012>014-132230-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
536 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MIDDLESEX AND
NORTHERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES
AT 532 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
HILLSIDE TO WOODBRIDGE TO ROBERTSVILLE. THE LINE IS BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH
AND OVERALL MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SOUTH AMBOY AROUND 540 PM...UNION BEACH
AROUND 550 PM...PORT MONMOUTH AROUND 600 PM...TINTON FALLS AROUND 610
PM...WEST LONG BRANCH AROUND 620 PM AND SEA BRIGHT AROUND 630 PM.
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160. Pcroton
9:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Rapid development occurring along outflow boundary in Monmouth and Ocean counties.



Be aware of that sudden first crack of thunder folks.

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159. Pcroton
9:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Outflow boundary clearly winning out versus seabreeze front. Eradicated it in Mercer/Monmouth counties and now bearing down on the Ocean county area. Also we have plenty of redevelopment behind, and now along of, the outflow boundary. Looks like a go even for southern and central NJ. Will have to see as the storms cross Route 9 in Monmouth County - that's usually a good line where many do fall apart.




These are flood producers all along the line. Further north looks downright strong. Intense frequent lightning in north east NJ headed for SE NY and SW CT.









Our sea breeze showers ended and now the remains are really growing very dark clouds just to my west with our first thunder coming - so we're getting some rapid development now.
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158. Pcroton
9:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
I have zero idea what the severe thunderstorm warning was for my county... for those weak little seabreeze showers? If it's for the convection to the west... that's not getting here for hours. These guys can be so weird.


Well, here's the radar picture. Storms collapsed forming and outflow boundary and the seabreeze is also causing problems - HOWEVER - in this scenario we're getting refiring behind that outflow boundary so everyone is still in the mix for heavy thundershowers this evening... and obstacle #1, outflow boundary, isn't going to wash anything out.



Let's see what the seabreeze boundary does next. The fact that it's barely firing any showers shows maybe it's not that intense...and maybe won't be undercutting the thundershowers.
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157. Pcroton
8:19 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Mount Holly upgraded me over the past 40 minutes.



TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
EASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
CENTRAL MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT
* AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CYCLING UPWARD TOWARD SEVERE
LEVELS AGAIN. THIS LINE OF DEVELOPING SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
ROXBURG TO BLOOMSBURY TO BYRAM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH OCCURRED AS THIS LINE WENT
THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS.

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156. Pcroton
8:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Well...where it is hitting now it's hitting good.



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155. Pcroton
8:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Will the storms hold together?

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154. Pcroton
8:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 152. originalLT:

Looks like some strong T.Storms in West/Central NJ. heading in my direction. They are about 70miles WSW of me now moving ENE. Lets see if they hold together. The warm front really came thru about 2pm this afternoon. Temp. now 75F wind S at 2-7mph. Baro. down to 29.74". Humidity 88%


That warm front gave us that burst of rain this morning. Shortly after it passed we went into the low 80s with the high humidity. Saw a 10F jump in temp in just minutes and it happened as it was raining which was unique. Not very pleasant out there.

I think the sea breeze in NJ may knock these down some...but just how much I don't know. Some guidance shows a total collapse which I think is incorrect. Other shows full intensity maintained through the coasts but looking at the seabreeze and the stable skies it gave me to the East... not so sure.

Wait and see. Guidance has been awful with intensity and timing through the past two week event. Why would it change now.
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153. Pcroton
8:01 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Storms moving into NJ are heading into higher 2000+ MU Cape.




Surface winds are from the SSW according to the big picture but there is a bit of a sea breeze along the immediate coasts. Not sure this is really thunderstorm killing (down to sprinkles) type of a front though...but looking outside to the East the skies are clear and stable - to the west they're pretty stormy looking.







Dewpoints are high.








A couple of storms just popped last few minutes with the passage of the sea breeze.







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152. originalLT
7:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Looks like some strong T.Storms in West/Central NJ. heading in my direction. They are about 70miles WSW of me now moving ENE. Lets see if they hold together. The warm front really came thru about 2pm this afternoon. Temp. now 75F wind S at 2-7mph. Baro. down to 29.74". Humidity 88%
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151. Pcroton
7:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Some model runs. GFS makes it heavy in NJ around 10PM. NAM Operational (and the RAP not pictured) just kill it. Everything else seems to bring the heavy rains in through the coasts later this evening.





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150. Pcroton
7:08 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Although Mount Holly's discussion...is well one of the worst and unclear I think I've seen in some time.




.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FFA CONTINUES THOUGH THE WORST MAY BE OVER NOW FOR THE POCONOS AND
BERKS COUNTY.

ONE BAND OF TSTMS NOW.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER LEFTOVER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN W PA WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN DIMINISHING MODE BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SPEED SHEAR. THOSE STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER 03Z AND
MOSTLY OFF THE COAST AROUND 08Z.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AS IT CLEARS.




Soooo this intense line in eastern PA has broken up and isn't of any consequence and we're only focused on the line in far western PA? The hell....







Really?
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149. Pcroton
7:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Mount Holly is not buying the HPC's version of those thunderstorms in eastern PA dying out before they reach the NJ coast. As with any event that moves THIS agonizingly slow...we've seen it happen before - but this humidity with that trigger coming in I am hard pressed to believe we're going to just see the line peter out to scattered showers amount to a tenth of an inch of QPF here.


TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7726
148. Pcroton
7:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
As far as QPF goes, as I have been hinting it's something you just throw out the window in these instances.

Our short lived heavy shower this morning had already exceeded total event QPF forecasts. I'm assuming most people in eastern PA and northern NJ have blown those QPF forecasts out of the window with ease after this morning's event...now we have these heavy slow moving storms in PA coming in.

Nonetheless here's the HPC QPF in 6hr intervals hot off the presses. I'm sure the storms in Eastern PA already shattered this in less than 30 minutes time.





Model guidance isn't even worth posting but here's some hints. RAP guidance: 0.15" maximum for anywhere in PA through the afternoon and evening. NAM a maximum of 0.2" anywhere in PA through the event. GFS 0.6" for eastern PA - the only model with even half a clue.

So I am guessing HPC was reluctant to go way up in QPF values due to all the guidance being way low. Eh, not up for a rant...it speaks for itself (utter failure).

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147. Pcroton
6:54 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Could get a bit interesting later this afternoon for me.








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146. Pcroton
6:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2014

...MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...

TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL/ERN PA TO NRN VA SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AS
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS BACKED SURFACE WINDS INVOF A
STALLED FRONT FROM S-CNTRL/SERN NY TO CNTRL NJ. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS.

========================

This feature on WV imagery down along the VA/NC border spells trouble down the line. There's our wind damage producer for sure - and possibly cell rotation.






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145. Pcroton
6:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 144. tlawson48:

Stupid pouring right now, and the deal to sell our house fell through, so now we get to unpack all our crap and start over again. :(


Well, that's unfortunate.
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144. tlawson48
4:21 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Stupid pouring right now, and the deal to sell our house fell through, so now we get to unpack all our crap and start over again. :(
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143. tlawson48
1:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Yeah, we definitely have a trigger right here as the same cell keeps redeveloping over the same area and there are some wicked returns down over Mass/RI headed this way.
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142. Pcroton
1:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
LOL.

Well look for that to be even more so as the day goes on. (the rain but perhaps the gulls as well) Higher PWats mean heavier rain. Means even modest looking radar returns will be downpours. These 5PM values are extreme especially for your region. Rare even.



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141. tlawson48
12:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Currently one shower sitting over Kittery where I work. Doesn't look like much on the radar but it is coming down in buckets. And I saw a guy get pooped on by a seagull as I looked out the window!
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140. Pcroton
12:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Model Temperatures for the weekend...





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139. Pcroton
12:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Models in good agreement that it's going to rain heavy in Portland, Maine. Sunday still looks salvageable though. QPF seems to tail off by midnight saturday night.





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138. Pcroton
12:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Upton NY NWS QPF, Bufkit model QPF for Newark, NJ: Seems like all significant accumulating rains end around 8AM Saturday morning. NWS halts right about there. Remember though this is a slow moving system so you're quickly adding hours on to the continued accumulations as you head eastward.

Also note how NWS is higher than all model guidance, sans the NAM 4K, which just seems to take the NAM and overly intensify anything and everything.




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137. Pcroton
12:01 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
There's good reason to believe it may.

Look south of Cape Cod. That's all coming northward...and it seems to also be strengthening and expanding westward as it does.

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136. tlawson48
10:25 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
NWS Gray says heavy downpours for us later today. It is definitely a lot more humid this morning: 100%. We shall see....
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135. Pcroton
10:16 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 121. listenerVT:

If you're missing cool weather, or think current conditions are uncomfortable, here's some good reading.

My son, a wildlife biologist, is in upper Hudson Bay doing bird research. The weather is 40's by day and 30's by night, winds often 20-30kts, and they have to take a 12 gauge shotgun to the loo, due to the polar and grizzly bears. He just posted the first report of the three week expedition. Enjoy!

http://shorebirdscience.org/coats-2014-01/



Bumping....
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134. Pcroton
10:15 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
Incredulous there aren't flood advisories out for NE PA and NW NJ.








Of course, not a single model run had that heavy pocket of rain as of late last night. Unreal how faulty it's been during the past two weeks. One frontal system has just blasted the eastern two thirds of the US the last two weeks.
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133. Pcroton
9:57 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
And your QPF outputs....not much agreement here. Also a whole lot of nothing Philly to NYC and points south and east to the coasts. Intensity forecasts have just been horrendous the past two weeks. The big hits from VA-MD-PA-NY were completely undersold.... while the big forecast hits further east just never really happened outside of the one morning of flooding through northern NJ-SW CT.








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132. Pcroton
9:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
Weekend...weekend...weekend. Well, I think the same difficulties plague us in determining the clear out. The way guidance has been so far off hour wise with simple weather features as we saw last night I don't see any point in posting it this morning to time the clearout from west to east. through the region for Saturday.

However the SREF has an idea on how it wants to proceed...and it's PType graphs are kind of nice for it:

From south west to north east we can see the POPs drop for the rainfall... but you can notice as we reach central CT there's a problem with Saturday - it's late in the day and still high enough POPs to account for unsettled weather and scattered showers. NYC after "clearing out" then bumps some 5-10% pops through the rest of Saturday - which basically means dry but perhaps lingering clouds with some widely isolated sprinkles through the afternoon.









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131. Pcroton
9:37 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
Guidance seems to largely....not really care here about the weather coming in.

However the HRRR and NAMHIRES are showing some decent storms....and the SPC/NWS seem confident in the strong storms as well. Given we have the moist air in place and some warming temps today along with a pattern changing cold front moving through - I suppose we would lean towards the idea of some strong storms through the region today. Given the faults of the past two weeks I'd want to have low confidence here but logically...you'd expect it to pop a little today.





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130. Pcroton
9:30 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
65F, dense fog, stangnant air. As this morning's commute gets underway expect some very difficult to breath exhaust laden air.




The NWS pulled the trigger on wind damage potential yesterday for this afternoons storms - beating the SPC to it.





...ERN VA/MD AND DELMARVA NWD TO SERN NY...
A WEAK TROUGH PRECEDING THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TROUGH MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT IN PROVIDING SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A FEW STRONGER
TO SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY RESIDE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF
THIS REGION. MOISTENING WILL OCCUR POLEWARD TODAY GIVEN SLY WINDS
IN ADVANCE OF A N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NY. LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO BE WEAK
DUE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...BUT
THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL AID IN
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. 30 KT OF SLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA WILL SUPPORT MODEST BULK SHEAR FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
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129. Pcroton
9:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
So LT, you radar watch, seen the models.... what an odd outcome from yesterday.

Between 6 and 10PM the weather rolled through, on radar it had the physical presentation of the modeling, minus the intensity shown on any model really. Only some various GFS model runs of the past two days snuffed out the weak solution.

However there was an oddity here: The weather came through 10 hours earlier than modeled - which is something I struggled to resolve watching radars yesterday.

Area #1 of precip, was always "our" precip, came through nearly half a day early versus the latest model guidance (including short range hourly runs!!!).....

Really, that was strange all around. Never seen that before.

Overall despite this week's projected "week long wet weather threat" coming about more so than the previous week - just like the previous week the intensity and coverage and duration is much less than anticipated be it guidance or forecasting.

Why we're stuck in two weeks of horrid guidance and forecasting I'm not so sure. I think early in week one it was understood to be troublesome due to an extremely complex North American 500mb pattern that featured about a dozen cutoff low and high features. This week? This week other than a slow moving 500mb central US cutoff feature there was nothing to cause such an overall low success rate.


Well, on to today's weather in the next post, which should be a bit more straight forward given we have the cold front marching along.
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128. originalLT
4:32 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
Just barely got in my evening tennis. It started raining about 7:15pm , we were just about finishing up. (I lost, 6-4, 6-2, Oh well) It was doubles. Had fun though. The shower lasted about 30 mins. Now at 12:30am another area of showers is moving almost due North towards me from Western L.I. Should last about a hour or less.
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127. Pcroton
10:28 PM GMT on June 12, 2014
As discussed the first area of rain has fallen apart. Perhaps it's the second area of rain that will intensify and become the overnight hit.



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126. Pcroton
7:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2014
The one confusing bit here is...that weather I outlined earlier today the models had it dying out this evening. Given our marine layer I'd agree with that. Yet that area of weather is very strong and progressing north. Is this really going to die out? And if not...is it really going to take it 12-14 hours to reach central NJ from it's present location and speed?

Soooo...something amiss there.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 49 Comments: 7726

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.