Stormy Pattern for MidAtl-NEast

By: Pcroton , 9:34 AM GMT on June 01, 2014

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June 6, 2014 - 7AM
UPDATE SECTION


Unsettled weather will continue near the upper low through northern and eastern New England for the next two days. Further south the upper middle atlantic should have a nice weekend. Everyone does well on Sunday. Then we turn our attention to the frontal system that will return to the area from the south potentially stalling in the region for the week keeping us unsettled.

If that sounds familiar it should. Same idea as the blog header for this past week except the front is returning from the south. Same issues and questions exist including the end of the period tropical low potential.

I would expect the same guidance and forecasting issues and changes for the coming 10 day period as we saw for this past week. Updates begin Post #142.





Blog Opening
June 1, 2014 - 5AM

(All information below is static as of this time stamp)

Stormy weather pattern on the way particularly for the Middle Atlantic states. As we've seen guidance hint for nearly two weeks now a prolonged period of wet weather will affect the region starting on June 3rd lasting through at least June 12th. Questions still remain as to where exactly this frontal boundary sets up and whether or not it slips southward out of the region thus limiting the unsettled weather to a shorter period of time. Also in question is if and what speed this frontal system is going to travel at.

We've seen some guidance make the trip in two days time, other guidance take as long as six days, and even a third camp that keeps the front in the region for over 10 days. Model guidance has also shifted around in regards to the actual orientation of the frontal system with some hints of a potentially more amplified frontal boundary affecting us on Tuesday before settling into a zonal structure Wednesday through Saturday before yet again amplifying into a south west to north east direction which could allow for any southern low to ride up the coastal regions.

This frontal boundary will act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms and also a pathway for multiple disturbances to travel from west to east enhancing rainfall from day to day.







Severe Thunderstorms are possible for the Wednesday time frame. While the SPC halts the forward progression of the severe potential in the eastern Ohio Valley region the NWS has consistently mentioned the chance for severe weather on Wednesday.



The final piece to the puzzle has been a potential sub-tropical or hybrid tropical low pressure area coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coastal plain. Just how far north this system travels has been tied to the evolution of the frontal system. National Weather Service offices have continued to warn us that they really have very little idea as to how this frontal system is going to behave. As of now we only have a high confidence forecast of showers and thunderstorms affecting the region from June 3rd through June 5th. After that the potential solutions begin to spread apart.



It is certain there is a lot of heavy weather on the way over the next two weeks but after the first few days confidence takes a distinct nose dive. Neither computer model guidance nor professional forecasters can predict just how this all important frontal system is going to behave. Until we truly know where it will set up and how it is going to act we will be unable to pinpoint where the heavy weather will occur. Honestly at this point the forecast is wide open for anywhere from a few stormy days to as much as 10 days of continuous unsettled weather. Throw in the tropical wildcard and you have a forecasting nightmare.

Expect model runs and thus forecasts to shift significantly in the 5-15 day time frame. The further south you head the greater the chances of prolonged stormy weather becomes. While the greater focus is on the Middle Atlantic we just can't be entirely sure if the North East scrapes by with just the mid week disturbances and then clears out or if there will be more to it. From Connecticut northward the uncertainty is quite high. From Virginia southward the confidence is much higher for the continuous stormy pattern. Inbetween is just that..it could be a couple of days or it could be the whole thing.

I don't expect the long term questions to have any resolution until around Thursday the 5th. By then we should know the behavior of the frontal system.

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161. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:28 AM GMT on June 08, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
160. listenerVT
5:30 AM GMT on June 08, 2014
Quoting 159. Pcroton:

Another beautiful day today...continuing the stellar summer.


It's still Spring and I'm not giving in on that! It's my favorite season.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5548
159. Pcroton
11:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Another beautiful day today...continuing the stellar summer.

Mount Holly at it again stripping out rain from the all rain forecast. Tuesday through Wednesday night is now dry.

*shrug*

What can ya say/do at this point.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
158. Pcroton
11:40 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
Well...the SPC continues to call for a general threat of severe storms through Maine today. Guidance shows just the slightest of scattered showers between 2 and 6pm in a very narrow corridor. Guidance shows 500mb temps in the negative 14-16C range with surface temps near 80. I don't know why they're so steadfast in keeping the severe threat with no support. We'll see what happens when the release the first daily update at 13Z... I believe it is. Unless they're feeling despite the widely isolated development - will be strong? I know yesterday I did see a handful of tiny cells that dropped heavy rain briefly.

For the rest of us it looks just beautiful today and tomorrow although in the SW portions of the middle atlantic we start to see scattered showers on guidance later Sunday moving WSW to ENE. Not sure if we'll actually see some weather in the late afternoon or if it will hold off until after midnight. NWS did back the wet weather into Sunday night as of this morning.

For now it still appears we'll get the front returning from the south and stalling/meandering back and forth through the region as disturbances from the mid west ride along it and through the area. That would bring a parade of periods of showers and thunderstorms with lulls inbetween throughout the week.

We hear that before and we ended up with a more normal weather pattern this past week - but this second return seems to favor greater chances of the stalled front solution playing out. Last time we were waiting for it to form, arrive, orient, then show it's movement. This time it exists, it's oriented west to east, we saw disturbances ride along it west to east to the south of us all week....and as such this coming week's weather is starting off a lot more advanced/in existence.



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157. Pcroton
11:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
48HR Rainfall totals... from the storm that sorta kinda was heavy rainfall depending on where you were.

8am Wed - 8am Fri (gotta do the math...)



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
156. Pcroton
11:34 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
If all summer was 70s/50s splits....honestly what would there to be complain about weather wise? I wish it was like this every summer all summer.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
155. Pcroton
11:33 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
And here's our overnight temps at 5AM. Another crisp night on the way. Great window weather most places but.... western NY and PA must be wondering what month this is.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
154. Pcroton
11:26 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
Here's the Sunday guidance for that Mid West disturbance... which brings the front in from the south - and then the idea is disturbances keep forming out west and riding East. While we've seen this happen all this past week - as we know the front never stalled in our area instead heading south. So we'll just have to see what happens with the return flow and whether or not we got the week of disturbances this go around - or what else.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
153. Pcroton
11:25 PM GMT on June 06, 2014



I'll tell ya what though....guidance isn't too hot for it one bit.






What's more impressive is what's out in the mid west there....that comes East for late Sunday on guidance but not in forecasts (yet...)
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152. Pcroton
11:17 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
5PM high resolution scans...



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151. Pcroton
11:16 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
500MB temps were too marginal to see widespread instability but you can see where the coldest streak is....is where the showers did form. -16 to -18C. If it were -20 to -22C you would have seen a lot more pop. Just too warm above...while not warm enough below.








While it doesn't make much sense fact is they weren't looking for it to happen today as much as they are tomorrow. Then Sunday is a clear day for all. Wet Thursday, Dry Friday, Wet Saturday, Dry Sunday....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
150. Pcroton
11:09 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
Well, according to the NHC the Gulf is popping. I don't see it but they do apparently. Even if it is and were to...this was the energy that would stay down there. That isn't where we're looking for a northward moving disturbance to originate from any longer. If we get anything long term it'll be from the WCar.

-----





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery shows that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a a well-defined low pressure area located about 25
miles northeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico has diminished during the
past several hours. If thunderstorms redevelop near the center, a
tropical depression could still form before the low reaches the
coast of eastern Mexico later this evening or tonight. The Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate this system
has been delayed. Whether a tropical depression forms or not, this
disturbance could produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and
eastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.



=========================

What is popping is the frontal system in the south. We will have to see just how this front returns north and what rides along it. Nothing this intense would happen this far north....but it looks like the chance for a full week of scattered showers and thundershowers are on the table as of now.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
149. Pcroton
11:09 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
Can't even explain how amazing today was once the wind shifted. For about two hours it got real hot in a hurry but then it got breezy and cool and is still incredible out there.

I see there were scattered showers through northern New England outside of the more unsettled weather to the far north and east.... but it doesn't appear much came of it.








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
148. tlawson48
5:19 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
It is super crazy nice out there right now. Temp is 74F and the humidity is 47%. Winds are under 5 mph. Main area of rain is east of Bangor and the few showers over the moutains will most likely fall apart when they lose their lift. I really hate my cubicle today!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1159
147. Pcroton
4:40 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
I think it's less about guidance more about the presence of this low pressure area. If nothing happens in the instability this afternoon then you might end up fair.




Does seem to be a hard line between poor weather and fair weather but we'll see if any of that cumulus grows in the fair weather zone enough to produce some scattered showers. There's probably going to be some. Not sure why they favor Saturday more than today for it. Maybe they anticipate the low to do a bit of a counterclockwise loop before departing thus bring a little trough along the west side of it on Saturday.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
146. Gaara
4:39 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
Cosmic: Enjoy the race, btw. I've been there for a HOT one (2009, my dad had me put in a large win bet on summer bird and I had to walk around with about a grand of his money in my pocket for the rest of the day) and a MUDDY one (2011, $30 place bet on Ruler on Ice paid $390). Neither was a triple crown year, but we still had a blast each time. Tomorrow should be quite the crowd.

I'm rooting for Cali Chrome but I think the price is terrible, so I'll figure out the most efficient way of getting in on Tonalist and Commanding Curve and go from there!
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145. tlawson48
1:40 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
Rain has cleared us this morning, wind has gone northwest and the dewpoint is dropping. Looking to be a fine day. NWS Gray has both days this weekend with full sun, light northwest winds, low humidity and highs around 80F.

I have to say I agree with that, regardless of what any forecast models say. Not a lot driving the bus right now and when winds go northwest in Maine, they almost always stay that way for two to three days if the upper level flow is not very progressive.
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144. Pcroton
12:17 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
I mean....here we go again folks.

0Z GFS Model Run day by day....and missed in this frame by frame is two tropical surges. One around late week and the second you can see developing at the end of the weekend. At least for this run the GFS has abandoned the perfectly developed cyclone - which could have never occurred anyway - and is going with two tropical disturbances shooting up the trough over the Thursday-Sunday period.

Again, we're in the same boat we were this time last week when discussing all of this...but this time around I think there's a higher probability it happens. We already had the front whereas last time we were waiting for it to come in and set up and start moving (or stalling). This time we have it. It's there and it's coming back north.

So the theory is the same really...a front moves in slowly and stalls or wanders through the general region while disturbances form in the central plains and move along it in our direction. Then a tropical disturbance potentially rides up the boundary from the south.

I expect the same problems to plauge us as before in regards to guidance shifting around and the NWS/HPC model chasing. I'm sure if we read around this weekend we'll feel like it's deja vu as we read comments that show us they just don't know what to expect.

As such we'll keep this blog open...until perhaps the end of the weekend when maybe things become clearer.














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143. Pcroton
12:03 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
We can see the upper 500mb capture and cutoff that will plague northern/eastern New England today and tomorrow with some scattered showers. Everyone should do well on Sunday.



Then we can already see the return flow coming back up from the south. This is the same boundary that was to potentially stall over our are this past week....and now it has the potential to move north and stall over our area for all of next week. It's the same boat we were in this time last week when looking ahead. Only difference is the front is returning from the south rather than moving in and coming south through the region. Since it already exists and is in it's west to east orientation it may have a better chance of accomplishing the stall this go around.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
142. Pcroton
11:58 AM GMT on June 06, 2014
Good Morning.

63F over night which is +9 above forecast and +5 to +10 above guidance. Today's forecast dropped to Upper 70s from the Mid 80s and let us hope they are correct.

Forecasting....well, what can you say, except ROUND TWO WEEK TWO.

We're back to all rain all next week now? Mt Holly, after shrinking 3 days or rain to 1 has now expanded again to have rain Monday through Thursday.

Now I caution this is the same difficult pattern that plagued modeling and forecasting this past week - and there were two different times all this past week was all rain on both models and forecasts due to a stalled frontal boundary in the area. Disturbances ride along the boundary and you get your periods of rain.

Well, once again, that's where we are. Just read the blog header over again, assume I just posted it, and replace southward sagging front with northward moving front... and it fits to perfection for the next week of possible weather.

Bill Murray I am not but for this go around it appears we are stuck in Punxsutawney. Where's the rodent when ya need it.

Of course just like this past week we're going to see it flip around all over on guidance and thus forecasts will follow suit.

Here are your modeled high temps. Short range high res products are much warmer than the operational models. Looks like NWS is going with the NAM temps based on some local zone forecasts I pulled up around the region. GFS is very cool... RAP and HRRR are warm but also show just what yesterday's forecasts were calling for.









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
141. Pcroton
11:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Here's the water.weather.gov 24 hour analysis - which according to them ends 8AM.



Will have to see what tomorrow's release shows to add in any post 8am rainfall.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
140. Pcroton
10:56 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Good to see you around Cos!



Well, Dave Curren of NJ12 came on and showed a precip accumulation map. Held it up just briefly but I caught Newark NJ at 0.58", Belmar NJ at 0.21".... and most of Monmouth County NJ looked to be around the 0.25" contour.

Those who got the higher totals appeared to be northern most NJ with some narrow bands.

Looking at the CoCoRaHS reports for New Jersey there was very little rain from this system.

My county of Monmouth has 10 reports with a range of 0.14" to 0.34"



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
139. CosmicEvents
7:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
P...thank you very much for the Elmont(Belmont) forecast. And your tropical thoughts are much welcome.
Put $1 on MATTERHORN(30/1) in the Belmont.
Good luck
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138. Pcroton
6:52 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Very nice night coming tonight. Downright cold out in Pennsylvania!



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137. NEwxguy
6:51 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Its been raining all day,but only have about .25 inches,I see Nantucket island last report was over 2 inches.
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136. Pcroton
6:49 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
I just checked radar indicated and they already reset it...I can't stand it when they're so quick to wipe it.

So we'll see what water.weather.gov shows tomorrow. There's going to be some streaks in the contours from the event with strips of higher amounts adjacent to lower amounts. Incidentally some model guidance such as the RAP and HRRR tried to show just that last night. I think the RAP had you for .9" and had me for .2" -- but each new run shifted the heavy streaks into entirely different spots so I didn't feel it had value to post.

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135. originalLT
3:54 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Rain has stopped, final total, 0.98". Skies getting brighter.
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134. originalLT
2:53 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
"P", just went out and checked my rain gauge, and it's up to 0.90" and still a steady light rain falling, probably for another 45mins. or so, so I'll have that inch or so total.
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133. Pcroton
2:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Models quite agreeable about Saturday being unsettled in Maine and in western NY/PA regions. SPC/HPC agree.

Sunday is the more widespread nice weather through the North East....but then towards the southern Middle Atlantic we have the return of the front squeezing in.








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
132. Pcroton
2:36 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Looking ahead as the models continue to delay the development of the tropical weather the chances it times properly to come north and influence our weather appear to be dwindling now.




We can see at this timing solution that a trough will protect us. So the question becomes does the system develop even later and come up after this trough thus putting us back into solutions that have it affecting us? If models keep delaying it's development the answer to that is yes.

As of now we know it will not develop sooner and thus may not time properly with this trough.

The whole forecast as to whether or not this disturbance is a player is when it develops. It's got to hit a good window to ride up the coast versus being pushed off shore. If the models spend the next three days - continuing to delay the development of the system - then we'll start to see model runs hitting us with it again as it would be timed properly with the next frontal system that would enable a path northward.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
131. Pcroton
2:32 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 130. tlawson48:

Mostly the same as yesterday. A little rain now, but nothing super heavy, still cool and damp. Weekend looks to be nice. As the models push that cold front further and further south, our weather contiues to improve.


Only thing is I'd watch that low that's moving through my area. Looks to get captured and move north just off the New England coast and then to the NE of Maine. Might see some back side unsettled weather rotate through on Saturday before it pulls out of there by Sunday.


The front will dry the rest of us out as it goes south and then we'll watch for it to return northward around late Sunday getting here Monday/Tuesday with another disturbance riding into the area along it. Could be similar to what we're having this morning.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
130. tlawson48
2:19 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Mostly the same as yesterday. A little rain now, but nothing super heavy, still cool and damp. Weekend looks to be nice. As the models push that cold front further and further south, our weather contiues to improve.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1159
129. Pcroton
1:38 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Goodness...






So much like what we see today...this would have been the next disturbance shooting east along the front to come get us...and it would have been a repeat on down the line. Pretty much every 30 hours or so we'd be getting what we have right now this morning - for another 5-7 days - if those "stalled front" solutions panned out.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
128. Pcroton
1:27 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
A quick look at models and it looks as if the HPC maps are pretty good to follow here heading beyond this disturbance today. Aside from Maine (lol....the NAO has been their thorn) it looks like the rest of us have a really nice stretch of weather here. That cold front sagging deep into the south was the one that models featured as hanging up in our area with the lows going west to east across it. Instead we have lows going up into the maritime blocking and others passing off the coast heading out to sea - and the front is dragged along. So the lows drove the fronts - instead of the fronts driving the lows - and that's pretty much the difference between our 10-days of rain potential - and a few passing disturbances. Why the models had such a hard time with disturbances that were in existence all along - and why forecasters were so blind through it all - we just can't know unless they TELL us. Yet I think it lies in the 500mb pattern - and several days ago I posted a few 500mb maps with all those multiple cutoff features - and that's probably where the problems lie. Predicting those types of features is quite difficult.





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127. Pcroton
1:20 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 126. originalLT:

Getting some pretty good rains, now, maybe we'll hit that inch mark by the time it stops in 2-3 hours.


You've had that much?

I'll be curious to see what the totals are from this event.... but given what I've seen on radar versus what fell I don't think we can trust the radar indicated totals - as they'll see 35dbz and just "pencil me in" for whatever that translates at the surface when I've had light rain.

I just had a brief moderate burst within some light drops and the whole time I've been under heavy echoes. Judging on what's fallen we're somewhere in the 0.25-0.50" range...and I'd lean low on that. It's dry under the thick shrubs and the street gutters and known puddles aren't showing much.



Well, the new NWS forecast out from Mount Holly went from rain Sunday Night through Tuesday night.... to rain on Monday and dry otherwise.

So they're still having their issues with the weather pattern....but as a whole it looks like we went from the potential of two weeks of unsettled weather, along with strong storms --- to just a couple of passing disturbances.

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126. originalLT
12:53 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Getting some pretty good rains, now, maybe we'll hit that inch mark by the time it stops in 2-3 hours.
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125. Pcroton
12:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
It's Thursday and this front coming west to east was the front that was modeled and forecast to stall through the region for the long term.

Now we know this front will sag far to the south over time as some model solutions had shown. In fact some models and forecasts now take it all the way down into Georgia and stall it down there keeping them in the daily rains.


As to the tropical potential we continue to see the models "hold" the storm in the long range which is pretty much model speak for.... "I see the energy and I want to spin it up I just dont know when".

It looks like the bit of a split will happen down there where the Gulf energy kind of meanders down there affecting Mexico and then over time the energy in the western Caribbean takes over, develops, and moves northward.

Again I gotta stress I don't care what storm of perfection the models show - this thing will be a hybrid mess - a low end sub-tropical-storm if it gets there. Then it's track is entirely unknown other than north towards Florida.

If it were to make it all the way up here and be a significant player it would happen in one of two ways: Either a more tropical system that falls apart at landfall but maintains it's core of heavy rains and brings those north. Or a hybrid storm that goes baroclinic as it travels north and then we get heavy rain AND winds.

There's also the chance it gets booted off the SE coastline - or through the SE and then off the southern middle atlantic coast.

These ideas and solutions have not changed and no one solution has taken over for another.

So get ready for continued poor modeling guidance and thus poor forecasting in the long term.

Our next regional disturbances pick up late Sunday lasting into late Tuesday (at this time). This second round of disturbed weather also had, and maybe still has, the potential to stall in the region for several additional days. As of now forecasting is leaning against that idea.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
124. Pcroton
12:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
LT I noticed some oddities as well. Early yesterday morning the precip expanded northward into northern Ohio/Southern Michigan Seemed like the NAM was on to something with a well northern track.

Then later yesterday the precip was quickly eroding from north to south, exiting western NY and dropping southward through northern PA... and then as the evening wore on you could see a northern push in eastern PA/NJ.

The front kind of had a wobble/sag to it and the disturbance kind of tracked along it in the swooping motion.

All that said, yes it did rain, but then NWS was entirely out to lunch sounding the alarms for heavy rainfall. We've had some nice light rain but I don't think we've even seen any moderate rainfall here.

Definitely did not get the .8 to 1.0" they were predicting. There were no heavy downpours (at my house at least). Despite radar echoes in the 30-40dbz range consistently passing overhead we've had rainfall rates more suited for 15-25dbz on radar...if that.


What a mess of forecasting and guidance this whole period has been. We knew it would be though. Why it was I don't know. Does it ever make sense?



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
123. originalLT
3:27 AM GMT on June 05, 2014
Interesting change of direction in the whole precipitation shield in the last 2 hours. Now moving generally ENE, so the entire NYC Metro area will be in the rain. Probably by 2-3am from W to E. So disregard my post # 122!
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122. originalLT
1:05 AM GMT on June 05, 2014
In my post#121, I should have said this showery area may slide South of me, but looks like your area will get some.
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121. originalLT
12:57 AM GMT on June 05, 2014
Hi "P", all those showers in Pa. appear to be moving ESE and may slide below us. Don't know where and if any more will develop. Looking at your post # 111, I'll take the GFS guidance!--for 5AM.
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120. Pcroton
12:03 AM GMT on June 05, 2014



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE, DELAWARE
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AFTER 2 AM THURSDAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING NEAR DAWN
THURSDAY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING, ESPECIALLY FROM
GREAT EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.
DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY NEAR DAWN THURSDAY.


==================


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
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119. Pcroton
11:53 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Quoting 118. CosmicEvents:

Hi P....what are your thoughts about the probability of rain in Elmont, NY on 6/7? say around 6:42 PM or so.
I see they expect 100k people at Belmont Race Track that day....plus a few horses.
thanks



LOL!

Hi Cos.

After all the back and forth we've seen the past week it appears you couldn't get any more perfect weather at that time and location.

75 and Sunny should do it with a light NW wind.

Track will be about 48 hours removed from any rains.


A tad better than last year, no?
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
118. CosmicEvents
11:10 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Hi P....what are your thoughts about the probability of rain in Elmont, NY on 6/7? say around 6:42 PM or so.
I see they expect 100k people at Belmont Race Track that day....plus a few horses.
thanks
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5673
117. Pcroton
10:49 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Slight upgrade in language by Mount Holly this evening... heh.


ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NJZ013-050800-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-


TONIGHT
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
116. Pcroton
10:06 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Quoting 115. tlawson48:

55F for high with drizzle. Yay for April in June!!


Can we go back to this morning and swap weather?



Speaking of weather....there's an awful lot of it in the tropics.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
115. tlawson48
10:04 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
55F for high with drizzle. Yay for April in June!!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1159
114. Pcroton
10:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Reading, PA.... has seen a lot of big thunderstorms the past few weeks.





Yesterday's storm reports:

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
113. Pcroton
9:36 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
As to the tropical business....what's in the Gulf of Mexico looks like it's going to stay down there and just meander. Models trying to develop something in the WCar and bring it north....in the 8-10 day range. Still the same old story here - we no longer have any confident idea as the when the energy will get going therefore we can't detail any outcomes. Models continue to hold it at the 10 day range along the SE Coast.

Here's the latest GFS take on both the Gulf situation and then the WCar development and movement.










This time of year you can't get on guidance too much. For whatever reason it just keeps trying to spin up energy too quickly. Eventually said energy does get going but there's no real telling when.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
112. Pcroton
9:29 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Here's the SPC Outlooks. Valid 4PM today through 8AM Thursday morning.

Severe weather doesn't make it far east of the Appalachians but some strong cells could exist in the MD/VA/NC regions through the early morning hours. Perhaps even Delaware in an isolated cell could see some small hail or a strong wind gust.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159
111. Pcroton
9:24 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Here's the look at the early morning hit. GFS is the 12Z run but all other guidance is 18Z runs.









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11159

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.