500MB Low to dominate the weather week.

By: Pcroton , 10:09 AM GMT on April 26, 2014

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April 26, 2014 - 6AM


A deep digging 500mb trough in California will cut off from the flow over the Rockies in about 30 hours and slowly march across the country over the next 8-10 days.






This will elevate the severe thunderstorm risk throughout the central plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during the next four days.




Large amounts of precipitation will fall from this slow moving system which will begin to affect the Middle Atlantic and North East states starting Tuesday and ending Thursday with a heavy line of thundershowers.




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114. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:59 AM GMT on May 03, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
113. listenerVT
2:26 AM GMT on May 03, 2014
Quoting 106. tlawson48:

Check out the cold air damming in the CT river valley this morning: North Haven CT is still at 49F and Hatrod is 45F whereas to the east of there it is already approaching 60F in Boston. To the west, upper fiftes are almost to Burlington VT.


We made it over 60 yesterday! :-)
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112. listenerVT
2:25 AM GMT on May 03, 2014
Quoting 110. tlawson48:

It was definitely a gully flusher. I was the only who woke up though. Wife and kids slept right through it.


Yow!
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111. originalLT
5:13 PM GMT on May 02, 2014
"P", check out TomsRiverTommy's first blog. I told him to give your blog a visit. Sounds like a "good guy".
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110. tlawson48
1:04 PM GMT on May 02, 2014
It was definitely a gully flusher. I was the only who woke up though. Wife and kids slept right through it.
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109. originalLT
12:45 PM GMT on May 02, 2014
Wow, t, that's a lot of rain in 10 mins.!
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108. tlawson48
10:45 AM GMT on May 02, 2014
Nice little thundershower last night around 2130. About 50F at the time so instability was not driven by daytime heating. Rained like the dickens, around 0.75 inches in 10 minutes.
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107. PhillySnow
10:05 AM GMT on May 02, 2014
Quoting 105. LansdaleTim:

Ended up with 6.5"+ in coatesville. Wife couldn't get home because every road to the house was flooded out. Drainage basin in the front of the development was about a foot from overflowing, normally it is about 7-8 feet. I have pretty much given up on any weather forecaster, I'll look at all the data from here (Thanks P for all your hard work!) and draw my decisions that way. all the forecasters (Public and private) have turned forecasting into a Me vs the world attitude, and that benefits nobody. I'd rather they say "we could get an inch, or we could get 6, let's plan for the worst and hope for the best". Hope everyone survived without too much water damage.
Good morning, everyone. I agree with you, LansdaleTim. I'd rather a realistic uncertainty than this pretense that people know what will happen. We were lucky with the flooding - not as bad around here as north and west of us. I'm looking forward to the warmth!
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106. tlawson48
1:44 PM GMT on May 01, 2014
Check out the cold air damming in the CT river valley this morning: North Haven CT is still at 49F and Hatrod is 45F whereas to the east of there it is already approaching 60F in Boston. To the west, upper fiftes are almost to Burlington VT.
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105. LansdaleTim
12:37 PM GMT on May 01, 2014
Ended up with 6.5"+ in coatesville. Wife couldn't get home because every road to the house was flooded out. Drainage basin in the front of the development was about a foot from overflowing, normally it is about 7-8 feet. I have pretty much given up on any weather forecaster, I'll look at all the data from here (Thanks P for all your hard work!) and draw my decisions that way. all the forecasters (Public and private) have turned forecasting into a Me vs the world attitude, and that benefits nobody. I'd rather they say "we could get an inch, or we could get 6, let's plan for the worst and hope for the best". Hope everyone survived without too much water damage.
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104. tlawson48
11:31 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Our high temp for the month of April was set way back on the 11th (78.7F). Probably will be another week before we even get close to that.
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103. tlawson48
11:25 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
We escaped the carnage up here in Maine. 0.72" when I left the house this morning, based on radar loops and forecast, I would guess we'll get about 1.25" or so when all is said and done (then it start raining again on Saturday).

Climate data for April is in and we now have 6 straight months of below average temps. We would need May to be 8 to 9 degrees above normal for Spring to have average temperatures.
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102. cooldogs13
11:20 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
3.6 inches here in brick NJ storm totals unless we get some t storms maybe we could top 4 inches
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101. originalLT
11:19 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Good morning "P" and all. I got 4.20" in my rain gauge,--and some water in the basement!
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100. Pcroton
10:52 AM GMT on May 01, 2014


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99. Pcroton
10:47 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
No, no, please rant LONG. I encourage it.

Model Guidance from a distance did well showing the storm and on several runs showed the apocalypse coming. The problem is the guidance then flopped around like a fish on where to put the heavier rains and how much - some times making it appear as if it were to just be a run of the mill heavy rain event (yesterdays 12Z guidance).

I think the bigger problem is that flash flood guidance I trash whenever I post it. That's the guidance they use to determine what kind of a flood event we will face and whether or not to hoist warnings - and how severe.

That's where this failed. And I don't want to hear that they did not expect this because it was there on guidance frequently. If they were model chasing as us hobbyists do - well then - they're at fault. And to HPC dropped it's QPF to match that 12Z guidance of yesterday.

While we did have flood watches up - there wasn't much of an emphasis to them - that would lead you to believe what eventually came. The Warnings came too late and should have honestly been flash flood warnings.

So that is where the failure has occurred.


The media though, news channels and such, for the most part did hype the event as a big one. Unfortunately they do that so often that most people either ignore them, are numb to it, or are led to believe that 1" of rain constitutes a big storm - so then when they hear "big storm" that's what they now believe is coming.

================

THIS is annoying:


Mike Masco ‏@MascoFromABC2 20h

Never saw a local station pump up the rain so much. I actually heard "this area never sees this kinda heavy rain" Avoid the hype watch

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 20h

@MascoFromABC2 Don't you know? It's Noah Ark day in the media! We are all going to drown. lol


===============

As much as I like his videos and follow him in the winter, he has become unbearable in an apparent crusade to downplay every event ever since he jumped the bandwagon on the 40" euro snow map, of which he initially posted and said "not unreasonable" before getting caught up in the clown march of "DONT POST SNOW MAPS. DONT MAKE FORECASTS. CLOSE ALL WEATHER BLOGS."

Since that point in time he has gone out of his way to smugly downplay every event. Four times in March he played that game so strongly that he failed. Now he did it with a flood event and look what happened.

Perhaps it's too much coffee, maybe it's too much ego inflation when he got a few storms right early in the year and his twitter blew up an avalanche of "youre the greatest" posts. I don't know but I hate to see a good feed gone bad. It takes away what was once a good resource and turned it into something I tend to now avoid.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



Remember the outer 30% of a radar scope is not trustworthy and you see values decrease quickly due to the radar beams having to travel too far to give accurate readings.

Refer to water.weather.gov for precipitation analysis - of which unfortunately they update at a random time once each day - and that update will only give you the previous 24 hours of precipitation and not an event total.


Of which, here's the graphic for "yesterday" which preceds all the heavy rain in the upper middle atlantic region. At some time today they will release the next 24 hour block and you then look at both images and total it.





Our results....of which many are incomplete if you notice the times - it was still raining in many of those locations at these times:


DELAWARE

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY... WILMINGTON AIRPORT 4.60 - 200 AM

NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY... HAMMONTON 3.01 - 816 PM
...BURLINGTON COUNTY... MEDFORD 5.00 - 1110 PM
...CAMDEN COUNTY... VOORHEES 3.94 1050 PM
...CUMBERLAND COUNTY... UPPER DEERFIELD TWP 2.91 817 PM
...GLOUCESTER COUNTY... GLASSBORO 4.12 930 PM
...HUNTERDON COUNTY... READINGTON TWP 4.25 947 PM
...MERCER COUNTY... HAMILTON TWP 4.50 1200 AM
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... SOUTH PLAINFIELD 4.50 1030 PM
...MONMOUTH COUNTY... MILLSTONE TWP 6.22 1000 PM
...MORRIS COUNTY... RANDOLPH TWP 3.41 832 PM
...OCEAN COUNTY... WHITING 3.12 1200 AM
...SOMERSET COUNTY... GREENBROOK TWP 5.29 315 AM
...SUSSEX COUNTY... NEWTON 3.15 908 PM
...WARREN COUNTY... BLAIRSTOWN 3.92 1130 PM


PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY... WASHINGTON TWP 4.50 949 PM
...BUCKS COUNTY... WRIGHTSTOWN 4.39 833 PM
...CHESTER COUNTY... GLENMOORE 6.62 1130 PM
...DELAWARE COUNTY... WAYNE 5.50 1100 PM
...LEHIGH COUNTY... ANCIENT OAKS 4.26 1215 AM
...MONROE COUNTY... SAYLORSBURG 3.39 939 PM
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... POTTSTOWN AIRPORT 5.59 200 AM
...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY... PALMER TWP 5.26 940 PM
...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY... NORTHEAST PHILADELPH 4.91 200 AM



MARYLAND

...BALTIMORE COUNTY... 1 NNW ARBUTUS 5.35 951 PM
...BALTIMORE CITY... PIMLICO 4.53 830 PM
...CALVERT COUNTY... 2 N HUNTINGTOWN 4.90 625 PM
...CARROLL COUNTY... 2 SE WESTMINSTER 4.28 926 PM
...CHARLES COUNTY... 2 ESE BRYANS ROAD 5.20 929 PM
...FREDERICK COUNTY... 2 NW NEW MARKET 2.75 945 PM
...HARFORD COUNTY... 2 E PERRYMAN 6.62 1200 AM
...HOWARD COUNTY... HIGHLAND 7.32 820 PM
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... 1 ESE NORBECK 7.23 959 PM
...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY... LAUREL 4.13 925 PM


VIRGINIA

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA... 1 W ALEXANDRIA 3.23 909 PM
...CITY OF MANASSAS... MANASSAS 5.00 721 PM
...FAIRFAX COUNTY... 3 SE CHANTILLY 5.24 915 PM
...FAUQUIER COUNTY... OPAL 3.85 640 PM
...LOUDOUN COUNTY... 2 WNW LEESBURG 3.68 1042 PM
...ORANGE COUNTY... THORNHILL 4.50 637 PM
...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY... HAYMARKET 5.34 735 PM
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7239
98. tlawson48
10:38 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
42F, raining, east wind. Just like the last five days. Warm front appears to be somewhere down in Southwest CT. I certainly hope it gets here today!
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97. wxgeek723
3:21 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Street collapsed in Baltimore. Without a doubt this is the worst regional flood event in the Mid Atlantic since Irene.

Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3472
96. wxgeek723
2:32 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Willing to bet this will go on Mount Holly's "$HI@ we should put in our Event Archive but never do" alongside a long list of events the past few years.

August 14-15, 2011 - Historic flooding in South Jersey
September 2011 - Remnants of TS Lee/more historic flooding/mudslide on I-76 in Philly
April 23, 2012 nor'easter
July 26, 2012 severe weather outbreak
March 6-7, 2013 nor'easter
March 25-26, 2013 nor'easter
Remnants of TS Andrea 6/7/13
June 13, 2013 "Low End" Derecho (the alleged meteotsunami that occurred in NJ makes this bust event a little more notable, warrants further investigation]
July 28, 2013 - Training thunderstorms blast Philly smashing the Floyd rainfall record (you would think they'd have a huge page on this considering Philly is the primary city they serve and a major precip record like that is kind of, um, important)
August 13, 2013 - I think you remember this complex P

I don't know what it is about those guys that they've just stopped bothering to write anything about anything other than a snowstorm. The dedication to the winter storm summaries is definitely nice but that's not the only big thing that goes on around here. At least Upton documents just about everything that transpires over their CWA.


Just a short rant
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95. Pcroton
2:17 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
wxgeek if you read post 47 or 48 i was surprised at what flood threshold guidance was
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94. Pcroton
2:10 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Home evacs in queens and nj
car rescues throughout nj, philly
severe flooding just about everywherr
mudslide in yonkers took out metro north service
fdny rescuing stranded amtrak passangers in east tunnel

just some stuff hearing on the news
on my tablet
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7239
93. Pcroton
2:06 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Quoting 90. originalLT:

AS Steven DiMartino said on Twitter about an hour ago, :As the cold front runs into the warm front and the marine air mass over the region, the rainfall will expand and further intensify. He has the cold front in western Pa., Western Ny, and West Va. about now.



he was downplaying this
making fun of media and forecast hype
much as he did thru march with snows
he is unreadable

wonder what he thinks now
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92. wxgeek723
1:52 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Probably some of the worst flooding in the Philadelphia metro today since the August 13 storms last summer. Seems like Mount Holly really blew this one, none of the rivers were supposed to even breach moderate stage earlier today. Not good. Some of these neighborhoods may need to resort to overnight evacuation orders.






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91. listenerVT
1:38 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Lake Champlain remains at or above flood stage. Here are a few photos I took yesterday while driving through the Islands.













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90. originalLT
1:14 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
AS Steven DiMartino said on Twitter about an hour ago, :As the cold front runs into the warm front and the marine air mass over the region, the rainfall will expand and further intensify. He has the cold front in western Pa., Western Ny, and West Va. about now.
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89. Pcroton
12:53 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
Post #58 guidance seems like it's going to be the winner for the storm system. From that point forward it faulted. Logically you expect the closer you get to the event the better the guidance to get....but in this instance that wasn't the case.

Regardless we were already well warned so there's not much to it other than a desire for detailed precision.


BTW - 12 to 18" of rain fell in the Florida Panhandle from this system. Incredible totals for a line of convection associated with a 500mb cutoff feature. These are the totals of tropical systems. Some reports of up to 6" per hour rainfall rates.

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88. Pcroton
12:49 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
The whole area has become one large flood warning. Seeing there's been a lot of severe flooding from Maryland into Philadelphia.

With how the radar scopes exploded this evening it is apparent the 12Z guidance was horribly off...and the HPC unfortunately chased it at that time, lowering their QPF significantly.




It will be curious to see how the final tallies look from water.weather.gov (which is superior to radar indicated accumulation) and we will go back and compare it to some of the earlier model guidance which had been painting the region in 3-6" of rainfall.
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87. originalLT
12:39 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
I am at 2.05" of rain here now at my house, and still pouring and should do so for several more hours. Temp. has been around 42-43F all day. Barometer finally down to 30.14". Winds still mostly E to NE at 10-20mph, WHG.
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86. PhillySnow
11:16 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Very intense rain storm. A flood watch is definitely in order here.
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85. Pcroton
8:42 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Quite the ramping up of advisories here.






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84. Pcroton
8:05 PM GMT on April 30, 2014


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83. Pcroton
7:59 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Forecast river flooding.




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82. Pcroton
7:54 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
The warm front is on the move....






...and some warmer temperatures are coming tomorrow.





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81. Pcroton
7:51 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Afternoon Everyone. A very soggy day...consistently moderate rains with the occasional heavy burst - but it seems like we're heading into some very heavy rains for this evening with perhaps thunderstorms as well.

Model guidance shfited once more at the 12Z mark and....look at it...coupled with present radars...I think we can be generally confident in this final run. It sure took model guidance too long to zero in on where it wanted the heavy rains and just how much. If you think in a broader perspective the guidance has done very well at showing a heavy rain event affecting the region from the very moment the storm system entered it's time frame abilities. Yet from a detailed perspective, looking back through the posts here, it flipped around quite a bit.




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80. originalLT
7:20 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
As of 3pm, 1.05" of rain by me in Stamford CT. Large area of Mod/heavy rain to my SW coming towards me, should be here in an hour or two.
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79. noreasterrrrr
7:17 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
LETS GO RANGERS TONIGHT!! GAME 7@ THE GARDEN FAITHFUL!! GUNNA BEAT PHILLY !! LGR!!
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78. tlawson48
5:41 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Windchill is stuck at 36F since this time yesterday.
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77. NJTom
5:19 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Another day with actual temperatures coming in almost 10 degrees below the feckless fickle forecast (and 20 below average). It's 44 degrees outside where I live. This year's eternal winter just won't give up.

I noticed a discussion on the Year Without A Summer below. Weather historians might enjoy the DVD Little Ice Age: Big Chill (available from the History Channel) or the book The Little Ice AgeHow Climate Made History 1300-1850 (available from Amazon etal).
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76. goofyrider
4:58 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
See the Delaware R. forecast for Fri to crest at or below, action flood stage.
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75. tlawson48
2:47 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
A VEI-8 today would probably throw enough ash into the atmosphere to shut down all air traffic worldwide for months? years? The monetary impacts of that would probably send the worlds economy into an abrupt tailspin well before the environmental impacts killed most of us off.

Truly scary stuff, but no point worrying about it as we currently have a zero percent chance of accurately predicting when something like that will happen.
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74. originalLT
2:38 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Thanks tlawson48 with the volcano facts. What is scary is that in "Geologic Time", 26,500 years is but a " heart beat" in the life of our planet. In other words , not that long ago.
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73. tlawson48
12:39 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Quoting 67. Pcroton:


I love that story. Isn't it tied into volcanic eruptions of the time? I think there is also a European story of a similar kind...dating much farther back (1500s perhaps?)





The volcano you are reffering to is the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora on the island if Sumbawa in Indonesia. On the VEI scale (volcanic explosivity index) it was a VEI-7, or otherwise known as "mega-colossal". That is actually the official description, not something I made up. :)

The scale only goes to VEI-8, which is known as "apocolyptic". Luckily the most recent VEI-8 eruption was approximately 26,500 years ago: the Lake Taupo eruption. Mount Saint Helens was a VEI-5 to put it in perspective.
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72. Pcroton
12:08 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Looking ahead...the weekend appears unsettled for the region due to continued polar 500mb energy affecting the region.








Then towards the end of the first week of May we begin to see more ridging.





This is actually a significant shift in guidance for about a day ago the going theme was cold through May 15th. As we can see with this new guidance, and the response to it in the temperature anomaly forecasts, things are changing.
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71. Pcroton
12:00 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Maybe some good news?




Unfortunately CFS2 [climate model] public products are down/corrupted at this time. They were just restarted after a week long down time however so maybe we get those back shortly.

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70. Pcroton
11:48 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Ugly combo of temps and wind. It's still very breezy here in NJ.



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69. Pcroton
11:43 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Such a massive wind field at 500mb now.




The system out in the Atlantic is impressive as well.

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68. Pcroton
11:40 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Huge storm system now.





So is the previous cutoff 500mb feature now well out into the Atlantic.

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67. Pcroton
11:37 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Quoting 61. cooldogs13:

Found this on steve d's twitter interesting about the flooding risk in the mid atlantic for the next few days

Link


Middle Atlantic river forecast center.... wasn't aware they did storm briefings. I like it. Unfortunately this is now all incorrect forecast data given the shifting guidance. I wonder if they will do a followup or not.



Quoting 62. originalLT:

Zotty's post, #57, reminded me of the year, 1816, commonly referred to as the "Year without a summer". Not saying we'll have that, but it is a reminder. Google that, "year without a summer" , and read the Wikipedia article on it, quite interesting.


I love that story. Isn't it tied into volcanic eruptions of the time? I think there is also a European story of a similar kind...dating much farther back (1500s perhaps?)



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66. Pcroton
11:34 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Good Morning...well, maybe. 42F and moderate rain and breezy.

Guidance starting to zero in (about time?) on the location of the heavier precip. HPC has now changed it's thinking in response.

These products are not reflected in my flood watch which still calls for 3-4" of rain. The products below put me [central coastal nj] in a 1-2" category - of which I prefer here.








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65. tlawson48
10:26 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
39F, spotty showers, light east wind. Still ick.
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64. originalLT
4:00 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Barometer still very high here, at 30.44". My LCD Baro. Icon has a big "Sun" on it. It's fooled again by this very high pressure that is still rising slowly. Wind is N varying to SE at 5-15mph., but still gusts to 25-30mph. Temp. is 42F. And light rain falling on and off. Some heavier rain will be approaching the area in a couple of hours or so. Stamford CT.
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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.