Wind, Fire, Frost, and 500mb Cutoffs

By: Pcroton , 11:21 AM GMT on April 23, 2014

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Wind, Fire, Frost, and 500mb Cutoffs


This Morning's updates begin on post #27.

April 24 6AM

Another day of gusty winds are on the way with very low humidity values already present. As a result most of the upper Middle Atlantic and North East is under either Red Flag warnings, Fire Watches, or HWOs mentioning fire potential.


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Blog Header, April 23 6AM
All information below is static at time of blog entry.

Windy and dry conditions over the next two days has led to a high fire danger throughout the Middle Atlantic and North East.







Cold mornings will continue to bring a threat for frost to the region and as thus care should be taken when setting a spring planting schedule.




Significant blocking in the pattern will lead to numerous cutoff lows at the 500mb level. Temperatures will remain generally below normal over the next two weeks.







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50. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:09 AM GMT on April 26, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
49. goofyrider
11:57 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
looks like the bands are parting again over central southern monmouth

like last week

and few years ago
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2796
48. Pcroton
11:04 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 42. originalLT:

I would bet that by this time next week, the worry over the fire danger will be a memory.



I think 7-day QPF is around 2.5" so I would agree.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
47. Pcroton
11:04 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
HRRR precip thru 4am






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
46. Pcroton
11:02 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Evening Everyone. Was very very busy today.

Some very strong storms are hitting NC this evening and some very heavy rain is on the way to NJ .... and thank god... as you all pointed out the fires have been bad.









Gary S of Mount Holly's Twitter Feed has a number of photos from the beachwood fire.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
45. NEwxguy
7:13 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
winds were really bad around me,news reported several trees down on cars and homes.Suspect a lot weakened trees from the winter.
I am glad I'm heading west this week to Las Vegas,weather looks miserable this coming week.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15952
44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:54 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
43. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:51 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
looking towards sw

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
42. originalLT
11:54 AM GMT on April 25, 2014
I would bet that by this time next week, the worry over the fire danger will be a memory.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7767
41. tlawson48
11:33 AM GMT on April 25, 2014
Gusted to around 40 mph yesterday. Neighbors two recycling barrels tipped over and then procedded to spread out over a 6 square block area. Weekend looks like utter crap: mid forties, rain, east wind. I guess I'll bring in what little firewood I have left. Mountains are still picking up snow, Mt. Washington had to reissue avalanche advisories as they have picked up another ten inches of new snow in the last three days.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
40. wxgeek723
2:19 AM GMT on April 25, 2014
Both fires have been contained.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3654
39. cooldogs13
12:38 AM GMT on April 25, 2014
My co worker told me about that fire in Beachwood she lives about 10 blocks from there showed some pictures from family members looked crazy. P this is by far the worst fire year I remember in NJ ever granted I can only remember back about 10-12 years but still everyday I hear about a new brush fire. My other co worker is a volunteer fire fighter in the cassvile section of Jackson NJ which services 6 flags great adventure and said he's had way above normal house fires and even a few mulch fires
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
38. h2oskt
12:22 AM GMT on April 25, 2014
This is a little off topic:
I received a La Crosse Technology weather station for Christmas. Has anyone had any issues with the alert system on these devises? I seem to be stuck in a loop, warning me of a "Freezing Rain Advisory," for the past two weeks. I highly doubt this is an active alert in Bristol, CT.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 54
37. wxgeek723
11:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2014
36. Pcroton
10:32 PM GMT on April 24, 2014
Quoting 34. NEwxguy:

so the winds have been gusting 40-50 mph all day,and they just decided to hoist a high wind warning?
A little late on the warning button aren't they. My guess is since this trash day the neighborhood is probably littered with barrels and trash.



Incredible all day. Funny too because it was quite calm this morning and I was thinking...it's pretty calm and the models wanted it to be screaming out there already - I wonder... and then the first gusts came. So windy all day. Everything bone dry.

Still I was out in it the whole day. Just started getting chilly the past hour so I called it quits. Got a lot of yard work done. First mowing. Replaced some bad grass areas with sod. Planted a few select flowers that can handle these temps. Got my lettuce in. We'll be a bit borderline here but I am confident I will be okay now. Still another two or three weeks for the nicer flowers though that's for sure.



Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

06z nam-hires_namer_042_sim_reflectivity.gif




Hi Keeper. That is looking a whole lot stronger than originally modeled. Good to know - was thinking about putting in the carrot seeds really early tomorrow if the wind was calm. May hold off if we were going to see a downpour. Don't want them scattered all over.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
35. Pcroton
10:29 PM GMT on April 24, 2014
Good Evening. 60F here and 16% humidity outside. Winds were gusting into the 40s regularly today with gusts into the mid 50s mph between 4-5PM. Surprised the entire state isn't up in flames.

Freeze Warnings to the NW of NYC tonight.











Morning lows - NAM Hires:

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34. NEwxguy
6:30 PM GMT on April 24, 2014
so the winds have been gusting 40-50 mph all day,and they just decided to hoist a high wind warning?
A little late on the warning button aren't they. My guess is since this trash day the neighborhood is probably littered with barrels and trash.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15952
33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:27 PM GMT on April 24, 2014
06z nam-hires_namer_042_sim_reflectivity.gif
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
32. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:24 PM GMT on April 24, 2014
nam-hires_namer_048_sim_reflectivity.gif
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
31. Pcroton
10:10 AM GMT on April 24, 2014
This Morning's updates begin on post #27.

Dropped to 36F last night a few degrees warmer than guidance had shown. No frost as a result of windy conditions most of the night. Another day of gusty winds are on the way with very low humidity values already present. As a result most of the upper Middle Atlantic and North East is under either Red Flag warnings, Fire Watches, or HWOs mentioning fire potential.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
30. Pcroton
10:08 AM GMT on April 24, 2014
Today's weather features a continued fire threat. We are starting the day with very low humidities with gusty winds on tap for today.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
29. Pcroton
10:02 AM GMT on April 24, 2014
Unsettled weather in the East is preceded by a three day severe weather outbreak threat in the central US.








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28. Pcroton
10:01 AM GMT on April 24, 2014
Our following 500mb cutoff is a large one encompassing the entire eastern US. We have been discussing this ever since it popped up in the 10-16 day time frame and it appears nothing has changed model wise. A large cutoff 500mb low will slowly move through the eastern half of the US bringing with it cool and unsettled weather.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
27. Pcroton
9:54 AM GMT on April 24, 2014
Good Morning. Our next 500mb cutoff low hits the region this weekend.











Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
26. Pcroton
12:03 AM GMT on April 24, 2014
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski

Tomorrow, very low relative humidity values are the main fire weather threat. Some locations will drop into the teens




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
25. Pcroton
9:29 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Temperatures were in the 40s and 30s through NY and PA today.






Crop damaging cold coming tonight.







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24. Pcroton
9:23 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Brush fire in Millville, NJ showing on radar.



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23. Pcroton
9:05 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
The values in the upper middle atlantic and north east just aren't as low as were anticipated. Maybe that changes tomorrow. Virginia and North carolina are in bad shape.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
22. Pcroton
8:59 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Red Flag warnings continue to fly and have been expanded. New fire weather watches issued. HWO is also for fire headlines. Flood warnings for Lake Champlain are minor.






The SPC however does not seem all that concerned.





1153 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN AT ROUSES POINT.
* AT 11:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 100.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 100.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 100.3 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 100.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME LAKE FRONT
PROPERTIES. WATER ALSO BEGINS TO THREATEN LOW LYING ROADS...
PIERS...AND DOCKS. WAVE ACTION CAN COMPOUND FLOODING ON WINDWARD
FACING SHORELINES.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
21. Pcroton
6:28 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
As to snowfall potential...wow, UP of Michigan is getting it again. Also the threats for New England.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
20. Pcroton
6:22 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 13. tlawson48:

If this pattern contiues to hold for the summer, I fear the snow on Mount Washungton will not melt until almost August and then start to fall again less than two months later. It has been documented in the 1800's that the snow one year did not melt out completely until mid Sept, only to be followed by 18 fresh inches two weeks later.


NOAA of course wants a hot summer....but they insistend on a hot dry winter for us as well. Rife with agendas perhaps but either way untrustworthy.

I think I recall reading about a winter doing the same in the Rockies where they nearly saw a year round snow pack come up short by about 10 days.


We can clearly see some small pockets of 20" and more remaining in northern Maine.





Just found a map I did not know existed. It's a nice map... NERFC Snow Map

Not sure how trustworthy it is...as it's quite different with it's broad contours in comparison to the other map.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
19. Pcroton
6:15 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 12. NJTom:

Polar Vortex #`12? I've lost count. If I wanted 48 degrees at noon with a howlling wind in late April I would have moved to Wisconsin. I fear a lost summer with a dismal local tomato crop. A few weeks of fall after Labor Day, then back into the freezer for seven months. This is not what I consider living.



Well, recall last year we had no winter. It was warmer in February than it was in March. Then we had about 10 weeks of March lasting into May. Then we had about 10 weeks of April type weather lasting until June 20th.

So given that I'd say we did quite fine this April. We had 10 very warm days of ~75 and greater (depending on location of course) and 3 days in the 80s. Didn't come close to that last year!

However I agree it's kind of unfortunate to now see the trends favor staying below normal and perhaps dismal and unsettled with all these 500mb cutoff features affecting us - thanks to the 3 months too late negative NAO blocking.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
18. Pcroton
6:11 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 16. h2oskt:

Interesting this morning in Hartford, CT. I brought my class to volunteer outside, cleaning up a local park, and we experienced a brief period of heavy sleet/frozen rain between 9:30 and 10:00am.


I think this may have been hail generated in small convective cells in the colder air aloft.

For sleet we look for warmer temps aloft and precipitation falling into colder layers below where you have rain freezing into pellets of ice before hitting the surface. 925MB level is key to be cold for sleet.


SPC thermal profiles from 10AM.






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17. Pcroton
6:04 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 12. NJTom:

Polar Vortex #`12? I've lost count. If I wanted 48 degrees at noon with a howlling wind in late April I would have moved to Wisconsin. I fear a lost summer with a dismal local tomato crop. A few weeks of fall after Labor Day, then back into the freezer for seven months. This is not what I consider living.


Summer is still plenty of time off to see a pattern change. We've been stuck in this same pattern since late July 2013.

CFS2 just dumped May as warm....for cold. Been seeing this happen lately where the big warmup of well above temperatures -- just gets dumped in favor of the same returning pattern.





Edit. To Add...look at that Canadian Maritime blocking for May. Warm in Newfoundland and points west.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
16. h2oskt
6:02 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Interesting this morning in Hartford, CT. I brought my class to volunteer outside, cleaning up a local park, and we experienced a brief period of heavy sleet/frozen rain between 9:30 and 10:00am.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 54
15. Pcroton
5:59 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Keeping up with the wind and humidity. Wind rising, humidity dropping. Very low in NC/VA but as far as NJ northward goes it's not too bad, certainly not as low values as expected thus far, yet looks like it's getting pretty low in southern NJ pinelands in closeup graphics.








Middle Atlantic Maps.








Data from Rutgers Maps




.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
14. NEwxguy
5:36 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Ok,guys,your starting to put me in a deep depression,lets not get ahead of ourselves.
In fact the farmers almanac says we going to have a hot summer,and we know they
are always on the money.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15952
13. tlawson48
4:44 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
If this pattern contiues to hold for the summer, I fear the snow on Mount Washungton will not melt until almost August and then start to fall again less than two months later. It has been documented in the 1800's that the snow one year did not melt out completely until mid Sept, only to be followed by 18 fresh inches two weeks later.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
12. NJTom
4:31 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Polar Vortex #`12? I've lost count. If I wanted 48 degrees at noon with a howlling wind in late April I would have moved to Wisconsin. I fear a lost summer with a dismal local tomato crop. A few weeks of fall after Labor Day, then back into the freezer for seven months. This is not what I consider living.
Member Since: December 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 161
11. tlawson48
1:24 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
We had some friends come to visit us yesterday. They live high up on a mountainside in central/northern New Hampshire. They still have plenty of snow and are lucky to break 50F for a high. Sugarloaf ski area in Maine still has over eighty percent of its terrain open with 120 plus trails. With this cutoff low, I bet they pick up some new snow.

April is just about normal for temps this month. Some crazy swings either way and the net result so far is a 0.2F departure from average (above normal).
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10. NEwxguy
1:06 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
showers coming through and we just had one loud crack of thunder.Wet day ahead.
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9. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:36 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
cool this am here in T.O. current temp is 35.8 going to a high of near 50 on the nnw flow today so cooler
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
8. finsterct
12:29 PM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 6. Pcroton:


Seems like a neverending theme doesn't it?

Gets warm for a couple of days on the models in the long term.....and we all think it's the end of the below normal temps.

Then we get there and we find out it's just a few warm days and we're back to the cold pattern.

I'm tired of saying "last one". So this time I won't. Therefore it will be the last one.



Went a couple days over the weekend without looking at 6-10 8-14 day outlooks.... left them when they were showing that nice warm up.... should not have looked again! :)
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7. Pcroton
11:45 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
The morning of May 2nd, temps and surface map.










Ten day GFS total precip.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
6. Pcroton
11:39 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 4. originalLT:

Well, with your maps in post #1, so much, I guess for our big warm-up, starting the first week of May!


Seems like a neverending theme doesn't it?

Gets warm for a couple of days on the models in the long term.....and we all think it's the end of the below normal temps.

Then we get there and we find out it's just a few warm days and we're back to the cold pattern.

I'm tired of saying "last one". So this time I won't. Therefore it will be the last one.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
5. Pcroton
11:38 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 3. originalLT:

Morning "P", not much rain here at all from this frontal passage. Maybe 2-3 hundredths of an inch. 50F here now, Baro. 29.55" R, Winds just now starting to pick up, NW at 10-15mph.


Good Morning. Looks like the wind will really pick up after 3PM and by 5PM all models have us at 20mph sustained or higher.


I am guessing as the 500mb feature moves east through New England the winds around the eastern Great Lakes region will flow into our area and our winds will increase.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
4. originalLT
11:31 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
Well, with your maps in post #1, so much, I guess for our big warm-up, starting the first week of May!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7767
3. originalLT
11:29 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
Morning "P", not much rain here at all from this frontal passage. Maybe 2-3 hundredths of an inch. 50F here now, Baro. 29.55" R, Winds just now starting to pick up, NW at 10-15mph.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7767
2. Pcroton
11:28 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
Quoting 121. cooldogs13:

P that line may hit us it looked like it was pushing southeast but now looks like its pushing at least due east if not northw
East maybe. All I'll get hit by it but you maybe just a little to far north. Didn't have anything frm the line before just a few huge drops and I only noticed cause I went out in the car and noticed them on the windshield. It is raining right now a little bit in the Bronx just noticed on the Yankee game


Got absolutely nothing yesterday as we were in the split. I thought I heard a distant rumble of thunder perhaps.



Quoting 122. wxgeek723:

Front row seat to today's gust front just as it was initially blowing through. Was en route to Villanova and driving on 76 at sunset. Driving westbound into eastbound storms really speeds up the anxious wait. Saw the sun set behind partly cloudy skies while crossing the Walt but saw the ominous storm clouds just 10-15 minutes later after reaching Germantown. By the time I hit the 476 interchange it all went downhill from there. Spotted some good CTC bolts.

0709 PM HAIL 3 ESE READING 40.31N 75.88W
04/22/2014 E1.00 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 PM HAIL 2 SE ELVERSON 40.14N 75.80W
04/22/2014 E0.50 INCH CHESTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE ELVERSON 40.14N 75.80W
04/22/2014 M54 MPH CHESTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SE READING 40.25N 75.82W
04/22/2014 BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWNED ON WEST BOUND 422. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
RADAR

0734 PM HAIL WEST CHESTER 39.96N 75.61W
04/22/2014 E0.75 INCH CHESTER PA SOCIAL MEDIA

0753 PM TSTM WND DMG PHILADELPHIA 39.95N 75.16W
04/22/2014 PHILADELPHIA PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN IN WEST PHILADELPHIA

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG ROXBOROUGH 40.04N 75.22W
04/22/2014 PHILADELPHIA PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN IN ROXBOROUGH PART OF PHILADELPHIA

Saw downed trees on the way home but on some of the trees that are still bare it is hard to determine whether that is recent or from the Feb. ice storm. There is actually a long stretch of 476 where nearly every tree on the side of the road is either downed completely or has a huge branch sitting on the ground beside it.


What's your take on the new format P?


I think they did a good job but there are some tweaks that should be made. Lines of text seem to have nearly a full line break between them making it difficult to read. Page seems stretched in all directions as a result of the typeface. Wish we had the community blog updates on the right so we could see active blogs. With the post order I think those who use "order posted" should see the new comment box on the bottom otherwise that's a lot of scrolling to do. I just left the default newest first and have been adjusting. Overall pretty nice.


Quoting 123. tlawson48:

50F this morning with really thick fog in the fields on the way to work. That shows that last nights rain was at least somewhat warm, coupled with a high of 72F yesterday. First night where it was starting to get stuffy sleeping since at least September. Fire danger looks very bad tomorrow with the high winds and we have NOTHING that is green enough to counter it, just piles of leaves and brush.


There's a high fire danger to be had. Interestingly enough I went to check modeled humidity levels and NWS maps and the humidity levels are now in the 40s by NWS and 50s-60s on models. Seems yesterday I was seeing forecast/modeled values in the 30s and 40s. Maybe that will help a little. It's been a bad fire season down here. Can't remember the last time it seemed continuous/daily.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707
1. Pcroton
11:26 AM GMT on April 23, 2014
Some more maps... The higher winds head to New England tomorrow. Environment Canada's 8-14 day temperature anomalies. CFS 2 for weeks 3 and 4.








Also remember that frost and freeze is still a threat especially with our continued below normal temperatures. Every time we saw some warmth coming and thought it signaled the end of the below normal temperatures we get hit yet again with a reloaded cold pattern. This one however is different...now blocking causing the 500mb layer to jam up and cut off thus keeping colder air in the region.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 61 Comments: 9707

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.