Heavy Rain and Snow Mid-Atlantic and North East

By: Pcroton , 10:58 PM GMT on April 08, 2014

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Heavy Rain, Wind, Snow, and Freezes on the way.

4/15 7AM
Updates begin Post #156















Blog Header: 4/9 7AM
All data and comments below are static as of that time.


Warmer Temperatures, a weak system towards the end of the week, followed by more unsettled weather next week along with the potential for a rather strong storm system.


Our late week system has fluctuated back and forth between a track through central New England and a track through the upper Middle Atlantic. The majority of the model runs favor the more southerly track at this time. Timing seems to be the early morning hours of Saturday.








The GFS has continued to waver back and forth between bringing in the energy on Tuesday stretched out along a cold front or passing that cold front through rather harmlessly on Tuesday before bringing a much stronger low up from the south late on Wednesday.

I would expect models to continue to bounce between these solutions as we move forward however there seems to be better model support for the more strung out energy at this time.


The storm is currently in the east-central Pacific.









Evolution of the storm system at 500MB. Note how this system cuts off from the main jet and then the sub-tropical energy phases with the northern stream.

The differences between the stronger 4/8 12Z storm solution and the weaker more strung out 4/9 0Z solutions lie in how the 500mb level is resolved.










While the 4/8 and 4/9 0Z GFS runs bring the energy stretched up along the cold front on Tuesday - the 4/8 12Z GFS opted instead to drag the cold front through and then bring the energy up north as a stronger more separate low system.

Here is the 4/8 0Z GFS solution:




Here is the 4/8 12Z GFS solution:





The 4/9 0Z GFS reverted back to the 4/8 0Z solution which seems to also have better model support.







We must keep in mind models do not drive the weather and personal desire should never be used to select a model. These things always change but this is a rather intriguing system in the Pacific that could become a major player. Even though we're far out on the model runs I thought it was interesting enough to open an entry on. As the system comes into better focus we will analyze it deeper.




In regards to our temperatures the big news is the sudden jump in overnight lows. Morning lows may be anywhere from 10 to as much as 25F warmer than recent mornings.









We see several warmer days coming along from Friday through Monday before the cold front pushes through. Coastal regions will find themselves under the marine influence and thus much cooler temperatures while inland areas get a nice treat.













Given the up and down temperatures I would strongly suggest to continue holding off on those early Spring plantings. These warm days may drive you to give it a try but it's just not worth it at this time.







Even just the average norms for frosts and freezes should be enough to cause you to hold off. Early plantings, even if they survive, begin a stunted growth process that can lead to weaker plants and lower your yields. In the past when I have planted early and then did a second planting two weeks later I found the plants sown later quickly catch and surpass the early plantings and go on to be healthier plants with higher yields. In an unknown and volitile pattern such as this it would be best to hold off.

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228. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:47 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
227. tlawson48
9:11 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Escaped! Little dusting of sleet on the grass and that was it. 30F at 0500.
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226. goofyrider
6:56 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
trace snow from 12:00-01:30
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225. listenerVT
5:05 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Looks like 2-3" of snow. We'll see for sure come morning.



Earlier on Tuesday, this was the scene in my yard (those are lilac leaves!) ~
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224. originalLT
4:54 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Good question Brian. So far no, here in Stamford CT. it is down to 33.5F
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223. BaltimoreBrian
4:51 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
The snowbands over northeastern NJ and NYC are amazing! But will it stick?
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222. originalLT
4:48 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Yes, it is snowing here in Stamford CT. So far I've got 1.25' of rain. No snow yet on the grass. Temp. down to 33.7F. Wind NW 5-15mph. Baro. rising, at 29.91" or 1013mb.--Keeper, being a MOD. Can you suggest to the powers that be in WU, that they bring back the , "Community activity" box, that gave us the latest blogs? I really liked that feature.
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221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:30 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55606
220. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:27 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
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219. zotty
3:16 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Fancy New Website!

Well, Heavy Snow is what we are doing here, but without the igloos. Heavy heavy heavy wet snow. It is starting to stick to open areas that are covered in dirt. I'm on the south end of New Rochelle, NY, which is in the southern end of Westchester County, just north of NYC. I'm also about 2000 yards from Long Island Sound, so I don't know how much we'll get, but it is interesting to see all the same.
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218. Pcroton
3:02 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Well I am content. Getting hit with moderate sleet - big chunks of ice at that - and snow equal mix at the moment. Big flakes.


I will hold off on the new blog until the early morning. Careful on sidewalks and streets in the morning - in case we do drop below 32 - many of us might. So test things out a bit first.


Good night.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11329
217. Pcroton
2:52 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Quoting 214. noreasterrrrr:

Yea P with the last couple of storms the way it didnt pan out and I was on here praying for snow..I was thinking maybe im the jinx lol! So I said im gunna stay away this time and keep my mouth shut until in fact I see snowflakes..sure enough im in bed trying to sleep and I said let me take one last look out the window cuz its either raining reeaaalll hard or its sleeting. Sure enough was rain sleet and snowflakes..now mostly snow hahaaaa



Was sure you'd get some 8 days ago or whatever it was when eastern PA got hammered and then central LI. I saw snow in NYC briefly whatever day that was.


Well, we are now all SNOW here in NJ. Light, but, it's snow.

Nice.
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216. noreasterrrrr
2:51 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
It looks like we have a solid 2-3 hours of snow as well
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215. Pcroton
2:49 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Pretty cool.




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214. noreasterrrrr
2:45 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Yea P with the last couple of storms the way it didnt pan out and I was on here praying for snow..I was thinking maybe im the jinx lol! So I said im gunna stay away this time and keep my mouth shut until in fact I see snowflakes..sure enough im in bed trying to sleep and I said let me take one last look out the window cuz its either raining reeaaalll hard or its sleeting. Sure enough was rain sleet and snowflakes..now mostly snow hahaaaa
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
213. Pcroton
2:40 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
I've got a mix of mostly rain and some sleet pellets here. Due to go over shortly.

On radar in Delaware that's probably a lot of sleet aloft with those brighter returns. Also in central NJ and again in northern NJ - that's got to all be sleet signature.



Quoting 211. noreasterrrrr:

If that blob of heavy precip gets here before it pushes offshore yea I think a solid inch is in the cards!! Its sleeping and actually mostly snow here in yonkers ny....wats up boys!!



Was wondering where you were with these last two systems!

Quoting 209. Hoynieva:



Yep, we shall see how they do. It's currently sleeting moderately in Brooklyn and it started about a half an hour ago. I don't want to wake up to white...but I think I might.



It's likely to go over to snow.

:-D


Going to be some icy roads out there tomorrow morning in spots.


And in the time it took me to type this I now hear a lot of sleet pinging off the windows. Unreal. It's April 15. Love it.

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212. noreasterrrrr
2:36 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
*sleeting
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211. noreasterrrrr
2:35 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
If that blob of heavy precip gets here before it pushes offshore yea I think a solid inch is in the cards!! Its sleeping and actually mostly snow here in yonkers ny....wats up boys!!
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
210. Hoynieva
2:32 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Quoting 199. listenerVT:



I should be able to mail it off tomorrow such that it will arrive on her special day! :-D Perfect!


That's might fine of ya :) Thanks again.
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209. Hoynieva
2:31 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Quoting 193. Pcroton:




I think we will survive. You'll like the new blog post. We just have to make it to about the middle of next week and then it should moderate quickly from there.

Having a freeze this late in the season is pretty rare though. Curious to see how the plants handle it. I know the folks who loaded up on all those home depot flowers and plants the past week - including basil and tomatoes if you can believe it - are going down in flames.


Yep, we shall see how they do. It's currently sleeting moderately in Brooklyn and it started about a half an hour ago. I don't want to wake up to white...but I think I might.
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208. Pcroton
2:19 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
0Z NAM more realistically follows the current radar evolution.



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207. Pcroton
2:13 AM GMT on April 16, 2014


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206. Pcroton
1:57 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Upton upgrades.

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205. Pcroton
1:56 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
A couple more pics from PA. Ronks and Lehigh



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204. Pcroton
1:48 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Quoting 201. listenerVT:



Cover them! They'll be fine.



I opted for patience this year so I don't have anything to worry about yet.

Wondering how the flowering trees and those shrubs that just put out there tender leaves will fare. I don't expect any significant effects but wouldn't be surprised to see some leaves burnt a bit and some of the flowering trees/shrubs shed their blooms prematurely.

Those who bought all the warm weather stuff the other day are going to have replacing to do.

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203. Pcroton
1:47 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
A lot of rain I bet Listener. Snowing up there at all?


Buffalo, Burlington, Gray and Caribou Maine have not put up snow maps. Mount Holly and State College have also not done so.

Albany, Binghamton, Upton, and Taunton have maps up: Albany and Washington upped totals. Other maps remain the same from earlier.












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202. listenerVT
1:44 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Quoting 160. PhillySnow:


Congratulations Hoy, tlawson and Peng on your excellent snow pile guesses. And thanks, Listener, for a fun contest!




My pleasure! That's exactly why I started it: to bring some fun into the last weeks of waiting! :-D
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201. listenerVT
1:42 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Quoting 193. Pcroton:




I think we will survive. You'll like the new blog post. We just have to make it to about the middle of next week and then it should moderate quickly from there.

Having a freeze this late in the season is pretty rare though. Curious to see how the plants handle it. I know the folks who loaded up on all those home depot flowers and plants the past week - including basil and tomatoes if you can believe it - are going down in flames.


Cover them! They'll be fine.
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200. Pcroton
1:41 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
A couple of SIMRAD model runs showing that precip is going to hang around quite some time. While these runs are showing 3-4am to clear the NJ coast I think that's probably hanging on too long given radar presentation. However I think 2AM might be a good bet for the final flakes/drips along coastal NJ.




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199. listenerVT
1:40 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
Quoting 163. Hoynieva:



Wowza, thanks, Listener. I'd like to thank the warmth of Spring for getting me here, all those polar vortexes for doubting me, my Mom for having me. Oh boy, I'm sorry to get choked up, but it's been a long time coming. And last but not least, I want to thank all of you, for being you.

I chose that date as it's my wife's birthday. Not because I have any idea about melt rates or future temperatures.
I shall message you now.


I should be able to mail it off tomorrow such that it will arrive on her special day! :-D Perfect!
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198. listenerVT
1:33 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
We broke a precipitation record here for this date. Previous record was 1.41" in 1942. We're already up to 1.51" and it's 9:30pm. So much rain today that the water was over the road in a bunch of places. The fire department was on scene in one place 3 miles from me, where the river was raging along its banks and flooding a road; they were making sure it was safe for folks to cross and ready to close it when needed. It's 2 miles from my house to work, and there was water level with the road when I was driving in. It would have gone over the road, but that the precip turned to snow first. We had an inch on the ground when I got home around 8:20pm. Lake Champlain is reaching flood stage too.
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197. Pcroton
1:30 AM GMT on April 16, 2014
I hear ya TRP but we'll be done for good with winter in another week.


Evening, LT.
Pouring rain here, winds hitting 40, and we've dropped to 39F. Could have sworn I heard a few pings off the window here and there as well.

Snowing steadily in northern NJ and NE PA. Numerous reports of heavy sleet through Philly and western/central NJ now.


I think the snow has a good chance at sweeping through the coasts.











Some pics on the web.









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196. TheRasberryPatch
11:58 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
So far over 1.5" of rain. We've had sleet on and off with a sprinkling of big flake snow here this evening. I prefer NO snow anywhere near April 15th. October 15th, Yes, but not April.

Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey
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195. originalLT
11:44 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Wow, some really heavy precip. moving up from the Sw towards NE NJ, NYC and towards SW CT. Coming up from Southern NJ and the Delaware area--just like you said , "P"!
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194. Pcroton
11:33 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Very heavy rain developed in the DelMarVa and is pushing into southern NJ. Plenty of heavy precipitation still left to go through tonight. Cold air at the upper levels now racing eastward. The sleet reports in PA are at 40F surface temps - so can't go by radar indicated rain/snow lines with that. This is unfolding just how the 18Z models are showing.











PENNSYLVANIA

HAZLETON FLURRIES 34
WILKES BARRE FLURRIES 36
STATE COLLEGE LGT SNOW 34
BRADFORD LGT SNOW 25
JOHNSTOWN FLURRIES 26
ALTOONA FLURRIES 33
SCRANTON FLURRIES 36
CLEARFIELD MIX PCPN 30
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193. Pcroton
10:46 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Quoting 191. Hoynieva:

Thanks, Philly. Yes, I heard about the so-called pollen vortex, P, ha.
It wouldn't surprise me if there are indeed some dustings around some of our areas tonight. My family in SE Michigan picked up 3-4 inches last night, breaking the all time snowfall record for metro Detroit.

It's just depressing after all that warmth to be hit with these temps. Always aware of the possibility of it, but always hoping it won't happen. Alas, it's almost here, and the plants will persevere.



I think we will survive. You'll like the new blog post. We just have to make it to about the middle of next week and then it should moderate quickly from there.

Having a freeze this late in the season is pretty rare though. Curious to see how the plants handle it. I know the folks who loaded up on all those home depot flowers and plants the past week - including basil and tomatoes if you can believe it - are going down in flames.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11329
192. Pcroton
10:45 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Everything says it's going to snow. It has gone to sleet in Harrisburg PA as the cold filters east. Radar returns are moving northward as cold air pulls east and there is plenty of moisture on the way. NAM, GFS, SREF all say snow. HRRR still hasn't updated unfortunately but I would guess would concur.

NAM most aggressive with 2-4" philly to NYC - and I think that's probably high - but hey, we thought 12"in eastern PA and 5" on Long Island was "too high" last time it hinted at snow on the back side of a storm.

GFS a 1-2" threat.

SREF a 1-3" threat.

So it's there....and now it's just about watching the radars and looking out the windows later this evening. It seems the window of opportunity is 10PM-2AM.











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191. Hoynieva
10:39 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Thanks, Philly. Yes, I heard about the so-called pollen vortex, P, ha.
It wouldn't surprise me if there are indeed some dustings around some of our areas tonight. My family in SE Michigan picked up 3-4 inches last night, breaking the all time snowfall record for metro Detroit.

It's just depressing after all that warmth to be hit with these temps. Always aware of the possibility of it, but always hoping it won't happen. Alas, it's almost here, and the plants will persevere.
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190. Pcroton
10:03 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Really black skies came with the narrow squall on radar. Little rain no wind though. Temps dropped 7F in 5 minutes with it however.


18Z NAM and GFS are saying snow. Here's your 2am Maps:










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189. Pcroton
9:26 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Interesting. Part of Philly had a warning and damage.


Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h

Severe thunderstorm warning just issued for Philly metro area! Red box shows warning area.

Why the warning? Philadelphia Terminal Doppler radar showed 60+ mph winds less than 200' off the surface just northeast of Center City.

And storm has now dropped back below severe limits. Remainder of warning has been cancelled.




Kevin ‏@bochan23 36m

@phillywx saw some large branches down in the southeastern delco area.

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188. Pcroton
9:24 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Other WFO Maps in post #171 (from Albany and Binghampton and Mass.


Upton releases a MAP:



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187. Pcroton
9:17 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
18Z NAM is out. Similiar to how it jumped on the snowfall with the last event that surprised. Wish the HRRR guidance would start back up. GFS 12Z also had bumped our snows up.






12Z GFS:






SREF in post 182.
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186. Pcroton
9:11 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Might still see wet snow flakes Philly. There will be instability and temps will drop quickly as the sun sets. All models show precip in the region right through Midnight.


Currently the extremes I can find right now are 28F in NW PA - and 71F in SE PA. Impressive!

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185. Pcroton
9:09 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Yeah gotta adjust, Philly. I already have the new entry ready to go late tonight.

Looks like I was wrong about early may - Models going for above normal temps and drier right off the bat. Details in the new entry.




We have gone from 66 to 69 degrees in the past 20 minutes ahead of the squall line coming in. Temperatures will be dropping 40 degrees tonight. Amazing for any time of year let alone mid April. 36 hour temp change will be pushing 55F.

Still, not as big as some of the crazy drops earlier this season - we had a couple of 60F drops in 18 hours time this year.

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184. PhillySnow
9:06 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Oh, and P, thanks for adapting to the new site configuration. It seems like it could work well, and right now the functionality seems off.
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183. PhillySnow
9:05 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
We've had some very heavy downpours with quite a lot of wind. Looks like the precip will end here before the cold weather comes in, so probably nothing wintry here. It's 54F now and still feels warm.
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182. Pcroton
8:40 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Looks like it will slide through but it's a very narrow band LT. However looking further south towards Virginia there's another heavier pocket of precip that might slide northward into the region. Depends on the speed of the front if it makes it this far north before sweeping east.









Temperatures well on their way








Upper Levels cooling in tandem with the precip motion.








Latest SREF output (from 11am) --- HRRR has not updated since 6AM unfortunately!



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181. originalLT
7:41 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Looks like that line of heavier showers in Eastern Pa. is making progress to the East, and could be by me in Sw CT. by 5:30 or so, you too in your area "P", could get them.
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180. Pcroton
7:14 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Flood warnings have expanded a lot as Lawson pointed out.





Tomorrow morning I will attempt a new blog entry and will try to create it in a format-friendly way. This new site design seems to have made large blog headers an unreadable experience. Perhaps smaller images will do the trick - I will have to tinker some.

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179. Pcroton
7:05 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Quoting 172. tlawson48:

Flood warnings popping up rapidly. Probably thirty different warnings went up today. Some are specific for rivers, others are general county wide, often they overlap each other. Should be fun, especially considering it may be 18F Thurs morning (which would be a record low).



Seems like black ice is going to be an issue the next couple of mornings.

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178. Pcroton
7:03 PM GMT on April 15, 2014
Quoting 175. NEwxguy:

Radar detected a possible rotation in SE Mass briefly now just reporting high winds with the cell.



There are certainly some meso-vorts embedded within either pipeline of moisture. Saw 2 go through eastern pa/western NJ earlier today. Definitely some strong winds just above the surface that could be mixed down with such features.


Quoting 176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we got about 2 to 3 inches of snow here just grassy areas cars and trees sidewalks and roadways are too warm now they remained snow free

29.7 here going down to 19 they say we will see

most has already melted so it won't be sticking around long

which is ok by me





The cold is the story for sure. About 60 hours of much colder temps...moderating to "cool" for the next 5-7 days thereafter.

Snow....well, that's still cool to see for this time of year especially if it rolls into the coastal plains later tonight. It's very late in the year for that - only once every few years do we see that.
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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.