Very Heavy Rain, Snow, Flash Flooding 3/29-3/30 North East

By: Pcroton , 11:19 PM GMT on March 26, 2014

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3/30 7AM

UPDATE


Updates begin Post #141

Flash Flooding, Rain, Snow, Freezing Rain continues across the Middle Atlantic and North East states.
















Flooding is a legitimate concern.

A lot of water remains in the present snow pack. In Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine you have 6 to as much as 20 inches of water retained in your snow packs.



Your Liquid Equivalent snow pack in inches. This is the water in the snow pack. If you have 2" of water in your snow pack and are getting 2" of rain - this is equal to a heavy fast falling 4" rain event.

Prepare now for flooding.





3/26 - BLOG HEADER

Data below is not updated.


A cold night follows in the wake of our super storm still affecting the Canadian Maritimes. A warmup featuring temps in the 50s with rain both Friday and Saturday could end with some snow on Sunday.






With a select few winter storms some impressive surprise features can develop. With guidance occasionally showing the potential for a double low structure or perhaps an inverted trough our storm discussion had transitioned from the progressive pattern that would deny us the chance of a bit hit to the potential of these surprise features. In the end we saw perhaps as perfect of a secondary surprise as one could expect at this time of year and watched the Middle Atlantic states accumulate snow in the 4 to 8 inch range.


MODIS color image of the Middle Atlantic snowfall swath.




Some select totals.

NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...SOMERS POINT 4.8
...CAPE MAY COUNTY...CAPE MAY 6.5

DELAWARE

...KENT COUNTY...HARRINGTON 5.2
...SUSSEX COUNTY...GREENWOOD 7.5

MARYLAND

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...GAITHERSBURG 4.0


VIRGINIA

...CULPEPER COUNTY...CARDOVA 5.0
...FAUQUIER COUNTY...WARRENTON 5.3
...GREENE COUNTY...STANARDSVILLE 6.0
...LOUDOUN COUNTY...DULLES INTERNATIONAL 3.8





As our storm continues across the Canadian Maritimes a strong north west flow will usher in what might be the coldest night until next season across the Middle Atlantic states.

Tonights Lows illustrated by the GFS model guidance.







Thereafter a disturbance currently in the Southern Plains organizes and moves towards the East Coast on Friday bringing showers and thundershowers along with temperatures in the 50s.






Temperatures Friday Afternoon







On Saturday a second disturbance develops in the wake of Friday's system and moves towards the region.




This disturbance could tap some colder air and trigger a moderate snowfall event from Pennsylvania into the Upper Middle Atlantic and Southern New England. At this time of year it will be difficult to accumulate snows during the daytime especially with marginal temperatures. It is worthwhile to note we're several days out from this event and things can and always do change.











After a couple of days of near normal temperatures another round of below normal temperatures invades the country accompanied with above normal precipitation.




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205. listenerVT
1:52 AM GMT on April 06, 2014
Moved to new blog.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5593
204. listenerVT
2:52 AM GMT on April 02, 2014
Thanks LT and Philly for the kind words about my SNOWPILE photos. Did you see this part too? ~


Guess the day and time that my driveway SNOWPILE will be gone. The blogger who comes closest wins a box of Snowflake Chocolates (which are made a mile from my house)!

Let's say folks need to have their guess in by the end of the day on Friday, April 4th.

Interested? Post this at the top of your entry so I can spot it easily:


*************************************************
**** MY SNOWPILE GUESS ****

Blogger Name:

Date:

Time:

*************************************************

So far P has the only entry! :-D Are you going to let him win? ;-)


Here's a photo of the same SNOWPILE as in the photos at post #2, only this was taken on March 31t at 7:05pm:

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5593
203. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:23 PM GMT on April 01, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
202. tlawson48
11:47 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Still trapped in the mid 40's for the next seven days, wich is 7 to 8 degrees below normal. It seems warm because its not below freezing, but I want to see some green! Right now the only shades of green I see are pine trees and mountain dew bottles as they melt out of snowbanks.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
201. PhillySnow
11:07 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Interesting pics, Listener!

Our snow is all gone here, and spring is beginning ever so slowly. It's supposed to go to 60F today and be in the 50's and low 60's for the next week or so.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1270
200. originalLT
4:49 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Nice pics. Listener. Yeah, "P", from about Mineola east for 20-30 miles or so, on Long Island, they did have 4-5" of snow. Caused quite a snarl-up on the LIE and other roads out there , Channel 2 showed the mess.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
199. listenerVT
3:01 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Below are three photos of the snowpile at the end of my driveway. The first two are from March 12th, and the last is from March 31st.

Guess the day and time that the pile of snow will be gone. The blogger who comes closest wins a box of Snowflake Chocolates (which are made a mile from my house)! I can update with photos from time to time, once all guesses are in.

Let's say folks need to have their guess in by the end of the day on Friday, April 4th.

Interested? Post this at the top of your entry so I can spot it easily:



*************************************************
**** MY SNOWPILE GUESS ****

Blogger Name:

Date:

Time:

*************************************************






Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5593
198. listenerVT
2:59 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
My son drove from CT to NW VT overnight. Wild!

We had a lamblike day up here. More 40's coming and even a 50 or two. Amazing!

So, did anyone make a guess on when the snow will be gone from the snow pile in my driveway? I'll repost the note in a moment.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5593
197. Pcroton
9:41 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Just got home. Left here at 430am to light rain. Halfway to the train started to hear pings of sleet.

City was rain when I got there but around 7am or so big wet flakes were flying by the office window.

A couple people from down here texted me that it was snowing hard.

Got home and neighbor said he heard on radio there was 4-5" out on Long Island somewhere.


On the train home in the daylight all the rivers we crossed were just mud brown from all the runoff. Usually a dark black-blue color.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
196. NEwxguy
8:51 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Crazy weather this morning,we got a little coating on grassy surfaces,
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15984
195. cchamp6
7:41 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Woke at 5 am to heavy sleet and freezing rain at 31. Needless to say we were caught off guard. The roads were a mess. It's all melted now. Bring on spring.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1725
194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:22 PM GMT on March 31, 2014


warmest day of 2014 so far
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
193. originalLT
5:00 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
That's cool Gaara. Very windy here, NW 20-30mph. gusts to about 35mph. Sunny now, It's 42F but feels about 32F!.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
192. Gaara
4:16 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Golfball sized aggregate snowflakes this morning in Milford, CT. I guess we ended up with just over an inch.

You could hear individual ones hit your coat and driving in it during the more intense bands made it sound as loud as pouring rain.

Sleet mixed in a couple times but it was some pretty amazing stuff at times.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 400
191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:59 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
we are to break the 50 degree mark today maybe even 55 degree mark

today will be our warmest so far of 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
190. originalLT
12:40 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Yeah, saw the Radar colors went "wild" this morning. Had to be the way it was handling the frozen precipitation.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
189. jerseycityjoan
12:27 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
We had the "red radar" mentioned in #187 when I brought up the New York City weather page around 7:30A. It was all red, with a rim of yellow around it. Right in the center of Long Island there was a tiny blur of purple.

I've never seen anything like it. I am glad someone else mentioned it. I thought I was seeing things. When I clicked the image to enlarge it though, the red was gone and it was shades of pink instead, and shortly thereafter much of the map that had been pink returned to the usual rain colors. The frozen precip must have ended. A lot of activity in a short amount of time.
Member Since: September 29, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
188. cooldogs13
11:54 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
P starting to change back and forth from rain to wet snow as I'm just arriving at work in Lakewood nj
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
187. tlawson48
10:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
32F and sleeting like crazy this morning. Some of the heaviest sleet I have ever seen. It showed up as red on the radar!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
186. wxgeek723
4:37 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

MDZ008-NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-101>103-105-310600-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-140331T1200Z/
CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WEST ERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...
READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
CHALFONT...PERKASIE
626 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA...CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND...WARREN AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH A LIGHT COATING OF ICE.

* TIMING...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
185. listenerVT
4:10 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
We got about an inch of rain here, very little sleet and none of the anticipated icing.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5593
184. tlawson48
11:22 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
We got a total of 2.25" for the day. Plenty of water running everywhere. Parts of the backyard melted out. Now there is 2 inches of mud on top of frozen ground and that is just insanely slippery. The mud and grass slide away and then you fall on your face. Wonderful.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
183. washingtonian115
10:48 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Quoting 181. Pcroton:


Cool.

Snow on March 30th in DC.

How many accumulating snows does this make in March? 5?

Yes!.It's funny because people kept declaring winter dead.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
182. tlawson48
10:45 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
The dreaded cutoff low. Just sitting and spinning in the same place all day. Thank god it wasn't snow, there would be three and a half feet of it!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
181. Pcroton
10:31 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Quoting 179. washingtonian115:
Hey P.The snow we got in D.C (It's now mixing) accumulated on cars and grassy areas.About 1 inch of slush remains.


Cool.

Snow on March 30th in DC.

How many accumulating snows does this make in March? 5?

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
180. Pcroton
10:31 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Advisories expanded in PA-MD




Temps are marginal at the surface so I wouldn't expect much - and of course tomorrow warms so away it goes - still we love our snow no matter the context. Might be some surprise hilly terrain totals on grass. The snow will come down quite heavy at times.






850MB Temps are just fine but notice the narrow band of 925MB temps - and that's where we see the SREF and HRRR placing snows - and well confirmation on radars as well.








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
179. washingtonian115
10:22 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Hey P.The snow we got in D.C (It's now mixing) accumulated on cars and grassy areas.About 1 inch of slush remains.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
178. Pcroton
10:19 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Evening. Had a very heavy hit of rain here with one of the bands arcing up and around. Had a flood warning out during it that has since expired.




Washington DC upped their snowfall maps in the northern/eastern portions.





Albany with one of the strangest - most worthless maps I think I've ever seen - peppered with "<1" pixels all over.






Mount Holly and Binghamton continue with the same as posted above.

Upton and State College still without maps.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
177. PengSnow
10:10 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Hey P, usually this time of the year during the day if cold enough aloft, that is when you see some HUGE FLAKES such as been seem in the DC and some of that surrounding area.

Btw, my snow is gone that we had overnight and now right at 50 degrees. Looking forward to the next few days in my area-Monday low 60s sun and Tuesday low 70s sun.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
176. TheRasberryPatch
8:59 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
35F with rain and sleet. NWS has changed the forecast for my area to 2-4" of snow. LSV of PA

We also have flood warnings all around south central PA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
175. Pcroton
8:19 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
NWS: 24 hours ENDING 8AM Sunday.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
174. Pcroton
7:57 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Flood Advisories now up in southern NJ from continued rain.

Winter Weather advisories up in MD/VA, PA/NY for the increasing back end snow threats.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
173. Pcroton
7:51 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Binghamton NY has updated and upgraded potential:






Albany/Mount Holly on the low side:










State College, Upton without maps.



Washington DC with high interior hits:


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
172. Pcroton
7:47 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Higher rates/totals in PA likely due to sleet inclusion. Don't panic. Yet GFS/NAM do show up to 6" or more in the same locations.











Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
171. Pcroton
7:35 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Quoting 163. NatsFan:
Its been pouring rain here in the DC burbs since yesterday, but it changed over to snow half an hour ago and it is sticking to the grass.


Awesome.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
170. Pcroton
7:12 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Quoting 168. PengSnow:
April 9th to 12th might be the pattern buster...........OUCH(BIG TIME)if it happens!!!



At this stage I'm not feeling it anymore. April 6-7 is heading into Canada through the Eastern Great Lakes and is disorganzied.

The system around the 9th seems disorganized and zonal.

The next one around the 13th heads into Canada through the Central/Western great lakes. It might be a close call with the cold air it's showing in it's wake, and could feature a back side snow for the Ohio Valley, but do you think anything will begin to line up there to bring anything significant? If it did it'd probably be the far northern interior.

Seems like we're done here in the big cities and coasts.









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
169. Pcroton
7:05 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Quoting 166. OldUnionRd:
Just wanted to chime in with some observations from my PWS. Still raining pretty hard here (Millville, SNJ), and have totaled a whopping 3.92in of rain so far from this system since Friday. It's a bit damp out there!



Wow. You really cashed in!

The area is achieving the higher totals early guidance had shown a few days ago.



There are a lot of impressive totals out there but many haven't been updated since early this morning.

Also this is just for the 12 hour time frame 2AM 3/30 thru 2PM 3/30.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
223 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS FOR THE STORM


DELAWARE

...KENT COUNTY...
BLACKISTON 2.04 726 AM

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
TOWNSEND 2.21 815 AM

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
BETHANY BEACH 2.70 855 AM

MARYLAND


...KENT COUNTY...
GALENA 2.44 1050 AM

...TALBOT COUNTY...
CORDOVA 2.50 1210 PM

NEW JERSEY


...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
MAYS LANDING 3.00 400 AM

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
CHATSWORTH 2.61 832 AM

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
BLUE ANCHOR 2.76 1131 AM

...CAPE MAY COUNTY...
WOODBINE 2.21 838 AM

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
MILLVILLE AIRPORT 2.48 200 PM

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
SEWELL 1.72 930 AM

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
READINGTON TWP 2.21 800 AM

...MERCER COUNTY...
WINDSOR 2.60 830 AM

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
OLD BRIDGE 2.48 830 AM

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MILLSTONE TWP 3.37 900 AM

...MORRIS COUNTY...
BOONTON 2.13 830 AM

...OCEAN COUNTY...
LAKEWOOD 2.56 830 AM

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
MIDDLEBUSH 3.07 1131 AM

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
MILLVILLE 2.35 800 AM

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 1.54 750 AM

PENNSYLVANIA

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA INTL AI 2.26 200 PM
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
168. PengSnow
7:03 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
April 9th to 12th might be the pattern buster...........OUCH(BIG TIME)if it happens!!!
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
167. Pcroton
6:57 PM GMT on March 30, 2014








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
166. OldUnionRd
6:55 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Just wanted to chime in with some observations from my PWS. Still raining pretty hard here (Millville, SNJ), and have totaled a whopping 3.92in of rain so far from this system since Friday. It's a bit damp out there!
Member Since: January 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
165. Pcroton
6:34 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Thanks for the info Keeper, TRP, LT.

Unfortunately being on a 100x100 plot of land I don't have many options. Can't see myself getting a larger unit. It would just end up a target around here in some way - also a bit of an eyesore. Also would have difficulty finding a proper location for accuracy be it wind, rain, temperature. So to go big only to end up with compromised readings doesn't pay.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
164. Pcroton
6:30 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Good Afternoon. System taking it's sweet time moving along. This has caused heavy rain and flooding to hit the interior of the Middle Atlantic all day.

On the following images and maps you can just see how the system blew itself out at the 850 and 700 levels.

The would account for the axis of heavy rain moving East of New England early in the process and also for the abundance of just misty weather.

Note on the 700mb map from the SPC where the humidity is and look at the radar. That's the feature to pay attention to. It has begun to trickle East and the weather will follow.

Also note the temps at 850 and 925mb levels - there's your frozen potential that will increase as the sun sets.


































WINDS SURFACE
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12468
163. NatsFan
6:15 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Its been pouring rain here in the DC burbs since yesterday, but it changed over to snow half an hour ago and it is sticking to the grass.
Member Since: October 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
162. originalLT
5:23 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
TRP and Keeper, sounds and looks like a nice W.S. I have a La Cross model # C84612. Supposedly $279.95 BUT I got it at Costco for $79.99 plus tax. I truly wonder if they ever sell my model at that "full price". The WS-1000, looks much nicer than mine.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
161. TheRasberryPatch
4:55 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
I think this is the best for an amateur

Link

Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
160. originalLT
3:01 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Final rain tally at my house in Stamford CT. is, 2.51"--May be some more later this afternoon.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
159. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:01 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
158. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:44 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
I have mine up on roof of building 129 feet up from ground level



as you can see station mounted on a 5 foot 8 tri pod on nw corner of the elevator room roof tri pod mounted to wooden platform bolted with 4 100 lb blocks on platform the block with the stem in front is where weather cam is going facing the east

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:31 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:31 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
the ws 1000 is brand new just released station as of dec 2013 I got mine on march 17 2014 also got a cam for it as well that's going up soon been to cold and windy to work on the roof maybe this week if I get a windless day
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
155. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:29 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
link to supplier

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.