Snow Threat Sunday-Monday - Middle Atlantic States

By: Pcroton , 12:08 AM GMT on March 14, 2014

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Update Section, March 16, 4PM

Afternoon analysis shows that the earlier model solutions showed the high pressure suppression as too strong and storm impacts have nudged northward through Central NJ.


Updates begin on Post #267







March 16, 8AM

Snow and Ice threatens the Middle Atlantic states while Severe Weather hits the Gulf Coast and Florida.

Updates Posts 228-233





Updates Posts 228-233






Blog Opening, March 13, 9PM

A potential snow storm threat exists for the Middle Atlantic States for Sunday into Monday.






Two pieces of energy will combine over the Southern Plains on Saturday.








Here are the 12Z Models from 3/13 - centered at 96hr time frame - 8AM Monday.





Notice the amount of energy we are dealing with of which the models have resolved strung out along the frontal system. These scenarios frequently change as guidance nears in on the event. It would be unwise to trust any model guidance at this distance. Recently we have been somewhere in the 48 to 72 hour window where guidance has locked in. This would be the Friday 12Z runs or perhaps Saturday 0Z runs.




Recently guidance has been struggling with storm systems due to the pattern changing and the split flow patterns in the 500MB layer. The result is wildly ranging model solutions both individually and as a group. Note how wild the pattern is through the Pacific and Western US/Canada. These multiple stream splits will undoubtedly give the models fits.






What we know is a system will enter the Southern Plains on Saturday bringing the chance of severe weather. How the storm tracks from here is in question at this time.








The HPC appears to be fairly interested in the threat.

HPC guidance through 8AM Monday.











The NAO is once again going to be near neutral timed with yet another storm threat. While we've never gotten the "strong negative NAO" we heard was coming most of the winter (and never did) there was always this little dip that coincided with our storm threats along the upper middle atlantic coast.







Taking a peek at the long term it appears the Pacific features that were driving our cold weather outbreaks has begun to break up.


The dominating North Pacific SST anomaly has been relaxing.







The PNA is heading negative.







Our jet stream will feature quite an amplified yet fast moving pattern resulting in quite the temperature roller coaster. No longer are we locked into a persistently strong East Pacific ridge and thus Eastern trough.









Looking ahead we appear to be remaining on the cool side although not nearly as brutal as before.







Here are your CFS2 Temperature and Precipitation Maps. It appears through at least April we will remain cool.


The weeklies:















April Monthly:






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Gary S of Mount Holly defending his forecast but acknowledges potential change. I think it has to if current guidance prevails.


PhillyWx.com ‏@phillywx 1h

@GarySzatkowski Would not be surprised if this changes quite a bit. Sharper cutoff on northern fringe for one...

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h
@phillywx I'd be shocked if it doesn't change.

======

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 2h
Storm total snowfall map has been issued by @NWS_MountHolly for late Sunday into Monday storm.

Jeff Lamb ‏@oxlamb 30m
@GarySzatkowski @NWS_MountHolly seems high for all the dry air expected from the northern high.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 25m
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Possibly, unless we're too low or just right.

Jeff Lamb ‏@oxlamb 22m
@GarySzatkowski @NWS_MountHolly why put out a map if it has a low confidence either way? Just a briefing and statement would suffice.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 21m
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Didn't say that. Stop looking for certainty in an uncertain world.


Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Plus received a half dozen requests from emergency managers for briefing package with snow forecast.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 19m
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Bottom line is, if you don't like it, no one is forcing you to look at it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
112. VR46L
Thanks Folks !

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think DC looks pretty good for this storm absolutely.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 109. VR46L:
P! my Brother is in DC for a few days at a conference , is he going to see real snow You know compared to the half inch per year we get here ?
Yes he is going to see real snow of the models are correct :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
109. VR46L
P! my Brother is in DC for a few days at a conference , is he going to see real snow You know compared to the half inch per year we get here ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 106. PhillySnow:
Too funny watching the models today! I heard a funny thing in the car on my way home: A local met was giving the 5-day and got to Monday and said, "Well, there's the potential for a snowstorm but they don't seem to know what's going to happen, so I guess we have to wait to find out." She seemed baffled, and annoyed at the lack of a simple forecast to read. I had a really good laugh. I think the uncertainty and watching how people respond is pretty interesting.


It's pretty funny watching the same event unfold two weeks after the same exact problems occurred.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:
Last march was a absolute fail in D.C.The March 6 fail storm was forecasted to have as high as 21 inches.All we got was cold rain and strong winds.


That is because the system was expected to vertically stack just off shore and remain that way and deepen rapidly thus pulling cold air into the region. Was kind of an odd idea since it was in the lower 30s even in southern canada that day.

What happened instead was the three layers of surface-850-700 all stacked briefly just along the coastline for 3 hours or so allowing strong lift and therefore snow to fall before the upper levels raced eastward blowing out to sea at over 60-80kts!

It was a horrendous modeling and forecasting failure. And they did it not once, but TWICE.

The second storm we had heavy snow all day and only a slushy inch to show for it.

Seems like we have a potential repeat of errors here today as well - just different storms involved than last year's.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Too funny watching the models today! I heard a funny thing in the car on my way home: A local met was giving the 5-day and got to Monday and said, "Well, there's the potential for a snowstorm but they don't seem to know what's going to happen, so I guess we have to wait to find out." She seemed baffled, and annoyed at the lack of a simple forecast to read. I had a really good laugh. I think the uncertainty and watching how people respond is pretty interesting.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1241
So since the HPC maps are on crack right now I re-did the product and isolated for the 48hrs from 8PM Saturday to 8PM Monday and tamed it down to 50% probability range.




Much more reasonable but still in conflict of the model guidance.

Unless you weight the NAM an awful lot and I guess that is what they are doing.

I think this is going to change unless the 0Z model guidance "came back north" in some way.

If not and they keep this up it will be a similiar mistake to the March 3rd system.

Although at least this time they're officially only calling for 4-6" from Philly to NYC instead of 10" plus.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 102. Pcroton:


Yes and I would ignore it completely and entirely. They're doing the same thing they did for the March 3 event. Remember that?


Entire NE painted in heavy snow.
then
Just central PA/NJ
Then entire NE again.
Then just VA-MD
Then entire NE AGAIN!!!
Then just NJ-PA---- AGAIN.

Then..FINALLY, once it was half way over - they went along with the VA-MD-DE guidance LOL.




I guess it's one way to cover all bases but boy did they butcher that product with this release!




To have the same storm twice in March would be incredibly rare for Washington.

Remember this *almost* happened last year twice in March - but both times the storm's lift only stacked for a few hours each time giving wet snow to the region before going back to rain.

This time to have two cold suppressed storms of near identical strength is...pretty rare and amazing.



========================
Afternoon Updates begin Post #66
========================
Last march was a absolute fail in D.C.The March 6 fail storm was forecasted to have as high as 21 inches.All we got was cold rain and strong winds.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
Found the 12z Euro hires posted online.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 98. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
is this the current one you posted there... I'm going to bang my head on the wall



Yes and I would ignore it completely and entirely. They're doing the same thing they did for the March 3 event. Remember that?


Entire NE painted in heavy snow.
then
Just central PA/NJ
Then entire NE again.
Then just VA-MD
Then entire NE AGAIN!!!
Then just NJ-PA---- AGAIN.

Then..FINALLY, once it was half way over - they went along with the VA-MD-DE guidance LOL.


Quoting 100. Roirdan:
I love hpc lol. Snow for everyone! The more the merrier!


I guess it's one way to cover all bases but boy did they butcher that product with this release!

Quoting 99. washingtonian115:
Don't you just love how neatly nestled D.C and surrounding areas are for that 5 inch+ event.



To have the same storm twice in March would be incredibly rare for Washington.

Remember this *almost* happened last year twice in March - but both times the storm's lift only stacked for a few hours each time giving wet snow to the region before going back to rain.

This time to have two cold suppressed storms of near identical strength is...pretty rare and amazing.



========================
Afternoon Updates begin Post #66
========================
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Latest HPC QPF Map: Sure doesn't match that New England snow threat their products show.






========================
Afternoon Updates begin Post #66
========================
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
I love hpc lol. Snow for everyone! The more the merrier!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 71. Pcroton:
Euro 0Z and 12Z snowfall swaths. Remember this product essentially stinks. Low resolution...but still shows a general placement.

Don't you just love how neatly nestled D.C and surrounding areas are for that 5 inch+ event.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
is this the current one you posted there... I'm going to bang my head on the wall

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 95. PengSnow:
This is make believe land, if it is predicting 10-20 for SWPA(Pittsburgh area) it will be north or south of Pittsburgh, that is the trend the whole winter.



This is insanity all over again LOL.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this one.

We all know these maps are going to wildly change again with the next release.

Question begs: Why are they doing this to us/themselves - again?

Discussions ought to be real insteresting on this one from the HPC.


And I found it below and it does nothing but seem to hint that their latest threat maps cover BOTH possibilities on one map? Why do they do this to us LOL.

===


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...Middle ms valley/oh valley/central
appalachians/mid-atlantic/srn new york/srn new england...

The models/ensemble means show a southern stream wave moving out
of the southern plains towards the ms valley sat night-sun...With
a closed 700 mb low possibly forming near the ar/mo border. The
12z nam showed a deeper 700 mb low than the remaining
models/ensemble means...Resulting in heavier qpf and resultant
snow amounts in southern mo across to southern il/in/oh. The
06z-12z gfs and 00-12z ecmwf/12z ukmet show less snow potential in
the oh valley north of the oh river than the 12z nam/09z sref
mean. The low tracks and their respective liquid equivalents and
precip-types of the 12-00z ecmwf/12z ukmet/12z gfs/12z gefs mean
were given the most weight.
The direct model output from the gfs/ecmwf support 4 to even 8
inches of snow across part of southern to central missouri.

On day 3 in the mid atlantic/southeast ny/srn new england...Models
appear to be coming into better agreement with higher snow totals
developing across the central appalachians...Where 6 to 12 inches
is expected. Where the heavy snow occurs east of the appalachians
are less clear due to the uncertain phasing of the
northern/southern streams and subsequent spread of solutions.

A band of 6-10 inches is expected in the mid atlantic east of the
mountains with model run to run differences showing north-south
oscillations on the axis of heaviest snow. This is reflected in a
significant drop in 12z gefs mean qpf across northern pa/northern
nj/nyc/long island/srn new england. The south trend on the 12z
gefs/gfs/ecmwf/canadian global leads to an increased threat of
snow in northern and central va...And even freezing rain in
southwest va. The 09z sref mean and 12z nam extend higher
qpf/resultant heavy snow amounts further north into northern
pa/nj/ny/srn new england...So one camp or the other will
eventually make significant adjustments.
The 15z sref has already
made a major reduction in qpf and resultant snow totals in
southern new england/southern ny/northern pa from its 09z run.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
I would seriously caution at this point in time to disregard everything you read and hear and see today on this storm - other than for the fun of following along as we are doing here today.

To attempt to extrapolate or trust a forecast based on this afternoon's events seems like a fools errand to me.

Really...just two weeks removed from a modeling and forecasting debacle we are reliving the same exact event all over again?

Wow....

Confusion reigns on that one.


Unless the NWS/HPC has solid reasoning to entirely ignore not only our 12Z guidance - but honestly ignore all guidance (as none shows a heavy snow threat for New England) - I don't know what to say about these maps except to maybe side with Steve on this current release of them "USELESS"

They did this to us on March 3rd and they're doing it again - and we appear to have a similiar storm event unfolding with southern guidance solutions and suppression concerns - and strung out energy concerns.

I've never seen a scenario where all you have to go back is 2 weeks for an appropriate analog - but well, here we are?

Stay tuned...
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 94. Pcroton:
Ok this is a complete mess now. Just like the March 3rd event the HPC has now painted the entire north east in a massive threat zone for heavy snows.


HPC Maximum Potential Accumulations:



This is make believe land, if it is predicting 10-20 for SWPA(Pittsburgh area) it will be north or south of Pittsburgh, that is the trend the whole winter.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
Ok this is a complete mess now. Just like the March 3rd event the HPC has now painted the entire north east in a massive threat zone for heavy snows.


HPC Maximum Potential Accumulations:





If this seems like dejavu - it is - they did the same thing for the March 3rd event. Disregarded southern model guidance and suppression potential - bathed the entire north east in heavy snows - released premature snow maps - only to scramble and flip flop back and forth the next day - and then finally give into the southern solution.

This is strange to see this going on twice in two weeks - all around really - from the chance that DC gets a major snowfall twice in March - to the models and the suppression - to the NWS and HPC reactions to them.

Are we sure we never woke up Monday March 3rd and it's still the weekend prior to that system?

Cause if this isn't a mirror image of events I don't know what is LOL.

Head spins coming on....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Steve is steadfast against this event.


===

Nicholas Evans %u200F@nicksterdude010 44m

Buy or not?





Steven DiMartino %u200F@nynjpaweather 25m

Honestly. hate those maps. Competely useless.

Steven DiMartino %u200F@nynjpaweather 24m

There is a 10% chance for 8" of snow. Or 90% Not
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 24m

@phillywx Hey, look at the new risk area for 12+ inches of snow with this event from WPC.






Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 20m

@phillywx Well, they certainly didn't bite on the 12Z model trend southward. Looking forward to this discussion.


Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 15m

Briefing package for late weekend storm has been issued by @NWS_MountHolly and is available at:

LINK to BRIEFING in PDF Format



====

Versus

====

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 2h

The ECMWF is a complete miss for C NJ on north. A light snowfall for Philadelphia (1-3") and a moderate snow for extreme S NJ (3-6")


Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 4h

And now the 12Z CMC takes a significant shift south. :-)



Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 4h

Don't be surprised to see this suppressed more than what's being shown.




==================

Sounds like Steve is tired of Winter and wants this storm to disappear. You'd never find me winking happily at the idea of a model suppressing a storm.


:-/

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
I had to cap and save just so we can compare the inevitable changes.





I think they are so premature to release this given the wildly shifting guidance still at play.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 85. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Oh goodness, already Mount Holly? Just so you have to change it later tonight?

It doesn't even match any guidance in appearance.

That's one strange map. Bold, too.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Here are the GEM snowfall maps from 0Z and 12Z: Remarkable shift.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Thanks for info P
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
So based on that snow map u just posted ur in a 4-6 and id be in it looks tobe a 2-4...its something
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
At least is shows us getting something as opposed to nothing...you know...even a couple inches is ok...if its gunna be cold then better be some snow at least..if its just cold and dry that's a waste and Canada can have its cold back and let us have spring warmth. Cold dry air useless.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 82. noreasterrrrr:
And what time does that important 0Z come out so I can tune in P?


NAM will hit between 10 and 11. GFS between 11 and 12.

I won't be sticking around for that. Would prefer to do my usual large scale morning update with all the 0Z guidance.


Remember folks waiting for model runs with the daylight savings time now putting us at -4Z time... 12Z is now 8AM and 0Z and now 8PM...so models are coming out an hour later as per our time change.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Thanks for the post TOPH - I see they mentioned March 3rd and noted it is a similar scenario but not as strong (the modeled suppression features) as laid out in post #75.


I think in general we have a similar scenario unfolding but it seems forecasters are waiting on 0Z guidance to support the southern thinking before jumping on it.



18Z NAM has shown up. Here are the four NAM runs at the same forecast hour.








It has certainly shifted south since the northern most 6Z run.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
And what time does that important 0Z come out so I can tune in P?
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Interesting. Both Upton and Mount Holly have updated their zone products after likely looking at 12Z model guidance but they haven't stripped out the wording. In fact Upton put accumulation wording back in but of course it's just light now (which is 1-3") and not the whole light-moderate-light progression of last night.


Manhattan:


SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

MONDAY
SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BRISK AND
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S.






Mount Holly for central NJ has not changed their forecasting at all. I find this curious given the models clearly favoring a near-repeat of the storm 2 weeks ago when everyone made such northern errors.



SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

MONDAY
SNOW LIKELY. BRISK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.





I really would have expected a distinct change in forecasting. I suppose they're waiting for 0Z guidance to confirm the 12Z southern tracks or not before jumping the gun.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
80. toph
Upton not sold on the southern solution (yet):

THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NORTHERN TREND IN
THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA FROM SUNY SB
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...HOWEVER TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS
INTERESTINGLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS INCONSISTENCY STEMS FROM THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT JUST MOVED ONSHORE IN
THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW US.
DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE
NORTH AS IT COULD BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER AND THE MARCH 3RD STORM OR
BETTER THE NON-STORM IS STILL IN RECENT MEMORY. THE HIGH DURING THAT
EVENT WAS ABOUT 10 MB STRONGER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
FOR THIS ONE.

WHILE THE 00Z/14 GEFS..NAEFS AND EC ENS MEANS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A
LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN
TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY
SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER
INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS
NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS. A COMPARISON OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE H5 FLOW OVER THE
ERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PAC NW CAN BE MADE AS WELL AND DETERMINATION
IF THESE NRN TRACK SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE OR NOT. THE COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TO THE N WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR NEEDED FOR
A SNOW EVENT...BUT THIS TOO COULD BECOME QUESTIONABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THE SPREAD IN THE ENS MEANS COMES TO
FRUITION.

AM NOT JUMPING ON THE SUPPRESSED SOLNS YET SINCE THERE ARE STILL
MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE SURE IF WE WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES) IN A OVERRUNNING PATTERN...BUT THE
HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IT IS STILL COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
State College has released an HWO just minutes ago: Not a promising read for northern NJ-NYC-CT.



337 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA COULD BRING UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PORTION OF THE
STATE TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.




Mount Holly keeps the same just a new time stamp.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 76. noreasterrrrr:
That would suck if that happens..I want to at least get a 2-4" storm here if anything!! I just wana prove to my neighbor it can snow in march..remember I said he move here from texas so this is his first winter here! It better do something here..I think as we get closer wel c polar vortex not as strong


It would be disappointing but unless 0Z guidance does some significant shift northward we may be looking at a repeat of the March 3 event here.

The 0Z runs were certainly as far north as this pattern seems to support. NAM seems out of bounds in both runs. Oddly everything is consistent though - no wild model swings within themselves and they are all moving in unison be it south or north....unlike the March 3 storm where they were all over the place prior to locking in.

Saturday is the day to worry about model confidence and to make a commitment I think but things sure do look eerily similar to the event 2 weeks ago.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 72. noreasterrrrr:
So if the southern guidance were to prevail then ur saying hete in westchester id get nothing as the storm would pass south?


Yes.


Quoting 73. evsnds:
Crap, I need to catch a plane out of Dulles 10am Monday.



Could be a problem for sure. Even if the heaviest swath were to go more towards NJ like the 0Z runs hinted - you're going to be seeing snow in DC on late Sunday into Monday morning in some way.




Quoting 74. cooldogs13:
P looks like this storm could be like the last one and even go south of us here in central coastal NJ?


Not necessarily. Chances dwindling but...some light to moderate chances still exist in the pipeline although nothing to get excited about.








And then 4 days later a good spring time storm...that maybe ends as some short lived wet snow.







After that I think the answer is yes. We should be done sans the old flurries or snow shower thing.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
That would suck if that happens..I want to at least get a 2-4" storm here if anything!! I just wana prove to my neighbor it can snow in march..remember I said he move here from texas so this is his first winter here! It better do something here..I think as we get closer wel c polar vortex not as strong
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
We can see the GFS/NAM differences in the 500mb Pattern.

GFS digs much further south initally here at 57hrs.






GFS also has a further south influence of the Polar Vortex here at 60hrs.







Quite a strange system evolution at 500mb with the NW Pacific energy diving due south through the central US into Mexico on the GFS and Texas on the NAM...and then sending the surface low ENE having to contend with the Polar Vortex which is accounting for a lack of a northern track possibility.


I think at this time we have our two solutions to watch. Will it be a heavy swath through central NJ or will it be through DC-MD-DE like that one recent storm?

Sounds like a repeat problem here.


Here's some comparitive images from the two storm systems.









We don't have the best setup evolving for a northern track.

It seems like we have a repeat setup for a southern track. The exception being it doesn't appear to be as severe of a suppression as the previous storm which is why the models aren't as far south as they were for the March 3 event.

The flow was broader with the event 2 weeks ago. This one feature a more narrow PV and a more amplified pattern.

It is a similiar scenario however at least from these runs.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
P looks like this storm could be like the last one and even go south of us here in central coastal NJ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Crap, I need to catch a plane out of Dulles 10am Monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So if the southern guidance were to prevail then ur saying hete in westchester id get nothing as the storm would pass south?
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Euro 0Z and 12Z snowfall swaths. Remember this product essentially stinks. Low resolution...but still shows a general placement.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Quoting 68. noreasterrrrr:
Oh man ..one model give over a foot..another nothing WOW!! What do u think the latest trends are P? Do u think heaviest will stsy north or south? Or is it too early yet?


Nothing to be gained by any of the model guidance at this time. If one wanted to I guess they could say this mornings runs were too far north and these runs corrected.

The NAM solution seems to remain an outlier in northern track and strength. All the other models are south and drier by a substantial margin.

I personally have not been too keen on high totals north of Westchester or the southern coast of New England.

I also caution that during the day Monday if you are in the low 30s then you're going to struggle to accumulate.

Got to be in the 20s and/or it has to be night time.


Above all the models are going to struggle with this type of energy much as they have with recent storms. Is it two or three lows and strung out energy or is it one consolidated low? How amplified is the pattern? They're not performing well with it yet.

One note is aside from the NAM the models themselves are in good agreement with one another. 0Z was north. 12Z and yesterdays 12Z were south.

Given all of that if one were to make a call based solely from this point only then you discard the NAM and ride the southern guidance since it has the most support over the last 36 hours.

Still early though.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Manhattan stripped out the accumulation language from it's zone product.


SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

MONDAY
SNOW LIKELY. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 60 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

TUESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.




Mount Holly hasn't changed wording just the time stamp.

SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT.

MONDAY
SNOW LIKELY. BRISK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.




Curious to see how these read later this afternoon when they update in reflection of the 12Z model runs.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Oh man ..one model give over a foot..another nothing WOW!! What do u think the latest trends are P? Do u think heaviest will stsy north or south? Or is it too early yet?
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Quoting 65. noreasterrrrr:
My local met said on tv nyc can possibly get a moderate to heavy snow event as of now


When one watches the TV or listens to the Radio one must wonder what model guidance has been used to create that broadcast.

Try to catch those same folks in a couple of hours. Watch their tune change.

This is why I don't like to chase these things. I like to watch...but not chase. When they settle down is when it's time to follow along.

NWS warned us Saturday would be the day to do that.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Flip-Flop

Well, it is almost summer lol.











I love how forecasting has been reduced to being a model detective in recent years.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
My local met said on tv nyc can possibly get a moderate to heavy snow event as of now
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Quoting 53. NYBizBee:
Morning P/all,
Ive been lurking but P doesnt it seem temp wise we right on that 32 33 area for forecasted highs on monday. My gut if it snows even moderate its should accumulate rather quick even given this time of year? Just a wait and see if this a mid atlantic system again or does it ride up the coast. Def chatter now about monday.


Hiya. Other way around. 32-34F temps would mean it would struggle to accumulate during the day.


Quoting 54. BCJerseyGirl:
Here's what I'm going to do this time around. I'm going to wait until it's all over and then read the forecasts, LOL. I love watching all of the chaos unfold but based on the last several storms I think trying to predict what's going to happen with all of the model uncertainty is just wearing me down. Last week I thought one more storm would be awesome but now I think I can take it our leave it. Snow Lovers unite - maybe the I don't care attitude will get you all some snow! Watch this one turn out to be the one that ends up being the perfect storm and becomes the blockbuster that we've been thinking would happen all winter! Here in NJ we have had our share of snow this winter but most of the big ones went to our north or to our south. What's the chances of this one being the last gasp for us? Only time will tell.... Would love to say I'm not going to be checking in on this P over the next two days (can't seem to stay away) but it's exhausting!


Might be the best way to go about things. If there's one thing you can expect is the models to flip around and people/forecasts to chase them wherever they may go run to run. I like to stare at it but I'm not going to chase the things emotionally all over.


Quoting 61. NEwxguy:
ahhh,the joy of model watching this winter.Its enough to make one drink.I don't have much to worry up here in Mass.


Probably dry on this one, NEwx. At most fringe effects. Your primary weather should come from the couple of fronts moving through over the weekend.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 9298
Almost made it to freezing today!!
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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.