Snow Threat Sunday-Monday - Middle Atlantic States

By: Pcroton , 12:08 AM GMT on March 14, 2014

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Update Section, March 16, 4PM

Afternoon analysis shows that the earlier model solutions showed the high pressure suppression as too strong and storm impacts have nudged northward through Central NJ.


Updates begin on Post #267







March 16, 8AM

Snow and Ice threatens the Middle Atlantic states while Severe Weather hits the Gulf Coast and Florida.

Updates Posts 228-233





Updates Posts 228-233






Blog Opening, March 13, 9PM

A potential snow storm threat exists for the Middle Atlantic States for Sunday into Monday.






Two pieces of energy will combine over the Southern Plains on Saturday.








Here are the 12Z Models from 3/13 - centered at 96hr time frame - 8AM Monday.





Notice the amount of energy we are dealing with of which the models have resolved strung out along the frontal system. These scenarios frequently change as guidance nears in on the event. It would be unwise to trust any model guidance at this distance. Recently we have been somewhere in the 48 to 72 hour window where guidance has locked in. This would be the Friday 12Z runs or perhaps Saturday 0Z runs.




Recently guidance has been struggling with storm systems due to the pattern changing and the split flow patterns in the 500MB layer. The result is wildly ranging model solutions both individually and as a group. Note how wild the pattern is through the Pacific and Western US/Canada. These multiple stream splits will undoubtedly give the models fits.






What we know is a system will enter the Southern Plains on Saturday bringing the chance of severe weather. How the storm tracks from here is in question at this time.








The HPC appears to be fairly interested in the threat.

HPC guidance through 8AM Monday.











The NAO is once again going to be near neutral timed with yet another storm threat. While we've never gotten the "strong negative NAO" we heard was coming most of the winter (and never did) there was always this little dip that coincided with our storm threats along the upper middle atlantic coast.







Taking a peek at the long term it appears the Pacific features that were driving our cold weather outbreaks has begun to break up.


The dominating North Pacific SST anomaly has been relaxing.







The PNA is heading negative.







Our jet stream will feature quite an amplified yet fast moving pattern resulting in quite the temperature roller coaster. No longer are we locked into a persistently strong East Pacific ridge and thus Eastern trough.









Looking ahead we appear to be remaining on the cool side although not nearly as brutal as before.







Here are your CFS2 Temperature and Precipitation Maps. It appears through at least April we will remain cool.


The weeklies:















April Monthly:






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Now we're gusting well into the 40s. Came up really quick.




The storm is beginning to organize in the plains. You can also see the very strong high in Canada that will move East in tandem with the storm thus keeping it on a southern track with a strong QPF cutoff in the north.




Both the northern and southern areas of disturbed weather will combine over the southern plains today.







Stormy in the south.









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Updates Begin Post #132
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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Well we had a couple of nice hours this morning. Set our likely high temp of 58F about 20 minutes ago. A front is pushing in as winds have snapped west and are gusting over 30. Temp down to 56F.

You can see the front on the temps.




And on the winds...more subtle on the current front crossing the area with just a bend in the streams. Out over the Atlantic there are some strong fronts though. Clearly seen.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
12Z NAM is way too south. I'm liking the GFS right now, I haven't seen the 12Z yet but I'm hearing that it's going south as well.

I think if we take the 0z/6z and move it about 40-50 miles south, the GFS has it nailed.
Member Since: January 21, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
Quoting 156. VR46L:


I know , I really have misgiving about the GFS these days , I know the Euro can be annoying for tropical storm watching as it only seems to develop fully fledged storms but I prefer to see a realistic guide rather than the Jokes the CMC and Navgem are and GFS can be ,But Euro is frustrating as free to air stuff is so basic and people get very funny about posting the Not Free stuff . Just my real bug bear !

Regarding the Earth Map , the GFS is probably the best solution they can come up with as the other free Global models are wretched . But I think Prognostics without incorporating the Euro are worthless ! Just my opinion :)


All the models have had some serious faults this past season. I don't even know if I could pick a winner. Yeah the not free stuff thing is a bit annoying with the Euro. I don't really understand that. As for guys like Joe B who put effort into taking that data and producing really nice maps with it - I can understand wanting to charge to view them.

With the models I have noticed since 2011 there have been numerous server/software upgrades and patches to them and in all honestly they have gotten far worse. We're reduced to somewhat trusting them 72 hours and in... Mostly trusting them 48hrs and in. Yet we see forecasts of 3, 5, 7+ days born off of them only to fail miserably time and again.

We just got done with the March 3rd disaster and the NWS/HPC could not help themselves yesterday suddenly going big with the storm when we could see it wasn't going to happen. It was just two weeks ago the same mistakes were made. Amazing.

There is so much wrong with the whole thing from the dilapidated and failing data network, to the awful models that they seem to "patch" to make work for one pattern only to cause them to fault badly in others, the the god awful forecasting that really has no business going beyond 72 hours, to the internal political problems within WFOs and between them. I don't know. It's pretty bad.

Quoting 157. jrzyshore:


Hey,I'm in that boat too !....lol....I'm more of a lurking regular....looks like my brothers down in Charlottesville and Richmond (the new Snow Belt) are taking OUR snow again !!!!
I love the disclaimers on the snow maps showing HEAVY totals. Heaven forbid some AMATEUR causes a run on bread and milk !!!!....again thanks for your effort.



It is interesting to see this happen twice in two weeks in March. However last March the same thing almost occurred it is just that the storms failed to stack properly over the DC area. These on the other hand have done so and have produced. So the pattern was there last year as well for this southern-march-snowstorm situation. Twice too. The outcome was a general failure with just a few hours of heavy wet snow each time before collapsing into rain.




Quoting 158. cooldogs13:
P and jerzy shore I would have never guessed that 2 storms would miss us south in the month of march. Looks like ac expressway south is the place to be on this one


Yeah it's going to be a repeat. If not identical!

Quoting 159. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Looking for our next event of snow

... ... ... Failed, spring coming now

Until next fall


Still a couple shots of some storm-ending wet snow over the next two weeks on the models. New England could be in for one more decent snowfall as well. The storm pattern is very active and the cold air has not retreated...and we're looking at yet another reload and plunging of the cold air into the region.

As for any crazy significant 6" plus DC to Boston type events? Not a chance. It's over and has been for a long time now apparently.



Well, with that, here's the 12Z NAM which sunk even further south.




Funny, it was discounted for being too far north and now it's being applauded by those who want the storm to go south. I tell ya the emotional side of the storms of March has been an absolute train wreck.


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Updates Begin Post #132
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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Looking for our next event of snow

... ... ... Failed, spring coming now

Until next fall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
P and jerzy shore I would have never guessed that 2 storms would miss us south in the month of march. Looks like ac expressway south is the place to be on this one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You and I and cooldogs - we're in the same boat here with what I mentioned above. We're a border zone. We're clearly in a threat zone that is of ZERO inches to as much as FIVE. I'd lean towards what we got before of course. 2-3" give or take.

Hey,I'm in that boat too !....lol....I'm more of a lurking regular....looks like my brothers down in Charlottesville and Richmond (the new Snow Belt) are taking OUR snow again !!!!
I love the disclaimers on the snow maps showing HEAVY totals. Heaven forbid some AMATEUR causes a run on bread and milk !!!!....again thanks for your effort.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
156. VR46L
Quoting 151. Pcroton:



They keep adding stuff to it which is great! I did notice the additional categories.

I too lament it's only based on the GFS. We know we'll never get the Euro but maybe someday the NAM will be incorporated.

I think it can be a great visual tool.


Wind power density?

850mb...




Could be a good tool at certain levels for suppression I suppose?




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Today's Updates and discussion begin on Post #132

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I know , I really have misgiving about the GFS these days , I know the Euro can be annoying for tropical storm watching as it only seems to develop fully fledged storms but I prefer to see a realistic guide rather than the Jokes the CMC and Navgem are and GFS can be ,But Euro is frustrating as free to air stuff is so basic and people get very funny about posting the Not Free stuff . Just my real bug bear !

Regarding the Earth Map , the GFS is probably the best solution they can come up with as the other free Global models are wretched . But I think Prognostics without incorporating the Euro are worthless ! Just my opinion :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Steve's Map from last night.




A morning post now suggests Trace to 2" in NYC from them.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
I can't believe we're going through another pattern reload for the final week of March.

Polar Vortex in the region yet again.














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Today's Updates and discussion begin on Post #132

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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting 152. tlawson48:
Cold as it gets for mid March on Monday for us: a high of 24F with full sun!


Yep it's going to be a cold high pressure for you.




Enjoy today though. 2PM temps from guidance. We set our low temps last evening as expected and warmed all night. I'm at 48F right now. Breezy though. After a few 60s and 70s this month....it doesn't entice anymore even though 48 sounds warm.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Cold as it gets for mid March on Monday for us: a high of 24F with full sun!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 150. VR46L:
P have you noticed even more recent additions to the earth map ? I haven't had to look at the map in a few days but noticed new categories Relavity Humidity , air and wind Density ? Its pretty cool stuff , only pity is that it only has future projections of the GFS rather than a choice of projections !



They keep adding stuff to it which is great! I did notice the additional categories.

I too lament it's only based on the GFS. We know we'll never get the Euro but maybe someday the NAM will be incorporated.

I think it can be a great visual tool.


Wind power density?

850mb...




Could be a good tool at certain levels for suppression I suppose?




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Today's Updates and discussion begin on Post #132

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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
150. VR46L
P have you noticed even more recent additions to the earth map ? I haven't had to look at the map in a few days but noticed new categories Relavity Humidity , air and wind Density ? Its pretty cool stuff , only pity is that it only has future projections of the GFS rather than a choice of projections !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Found the 0z euro hires snowfall floating around. Not promising at all. Certainly a possibility given southern track and sunlight during the daytime snowfalls not accumulating.




We should all get our answers with the 12Z guidance. Some will be done by Noon. The rest by 2-3PM.





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Today's Updates and discussion begin on Post #132

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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting 147. PhillySnow:
Good morning! Thanks for the models and explanations, P.

If we get 2 - 4", I'll be surprised. More likely just a bit of snow falling from the sky that melts immediately on the ground. There's no mention of mixing in our forecast, and I'm glad of that.


Hi Philly. It just looks like a March 3rd repeat.

What we get Sunday night will stick and then I feel as if what falls Monday during the day will melt the same speed from underneath that it falls on top.

Best case surprise for Philly would be what... 6" I would guess here?

Let's see if the GFS is into something with shift back into the 4-6" range for you and I. If it corrects back south at 12Z then nah, then it's 2-4" for us.


Well, just when we think things are moderating...they reverse their thinking. Another well below normal period of cold for the final 7 days of March. Thankfully our average highs are in the 50s now - but still - well below normal means temps in the 35-45F range. That's still cold for people who want to get active outside.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Good morning! Thanks for the models and explanations, P.

If we get 2 - 4", I'll be surprised. More likely just a bit of snow falling from the sky that melts immediately on the ground. There's no mention of mixing in our forecast, and I'm glad of that.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1274
Here are the 6Z snowfall maps. The GFS came a litle north. The NAM went far south. I don't know if either of these runs are worth putting any faith into.

I do know again, because I know the questions are there, that anywhere north of Central NJ is out of this event in terms of any significant snowfall potential. I mean the absolute largest surprise I could picture here would be 2" in NYC. I just want to make that clear so when you see me say "gfs went a little north" it means don't jump up and think there's some big trend evolving giving hope of big snows flying north. It is NOT going to happen.

Those in central NJ and southern PA/NJ - SHOULD pay attention to these types of model changes for it could put us from the 2" to 6" category fairly effortlessly - as the sharp gradient cutoff means heavier totals are just right on the doorstep with the southern solutions - and then slide overhead with the northern ones.

I think the NAM, for whatever reason, is too far south. We will see what happens with the 12Z runs but it may prove an outlier south now. GFS seems pretty locked in even though the 6Z has broken the southern trending ranks and slid back north a bit.








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Today's Updates and discussion begin on Post #132

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...
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Manhattan still sticking with some pretty confident language for snowfall. However they once again stripped out any language for accumulations.




SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.




===

Mount Holly adjusted some. They removed Monday nights potential which would have been the second low - which would always follow further SOUTH in this storm scenario. They removed the moderate accumulation wording but replaced it with TWO light accumulation wordings. Which is 1-3" each. So 2-6" range is what the WORDING hints at.


SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

MONDAY
CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting 142. Matlack:


That is why I asked Gary S about it being posted with such a sharp cut off due to the northern dry high pressure on Twitter and I think he took offense to me questioning the map being put out with such high numbers. I just wanted to know what they were seeing that I wasn't.



Yeah I noticed that last night. He wasn't pleased. Too bad for him you asked the proper questions and as we saw this morning - they were in the wrong and he had to adjust.

His "emergency managers" thing is tiresome. He brought them up to defend him hammering hobbyists for the Euro snow map - then uses them to defend putting out a premature and over done snow map.


I had no idea we can have things both ways! Must be nice to live in that world. I certainly can't. Most of the time I cannot even have it one way LOL.



His map did not match any guidance and the SW to NE oriented swath didn't match any patterns - at all.

They now have it "right" in terms of structure and orientation and the numbers are rational.

However I bet it moves around even more.

You and I and cooldogs - we're in the same boat here with what I mentioned above. We're a border zone. We're clearly in a threat zone that is of ZERO inches to as much as FIVE. I'd lean towards what we got before of course. 2-3" give or take.

Hopefully we resolve this today. Not that it's something of significant importance - more just nice to know and then sit back and watch the storm evolve is all.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
6Z Models in. GFS went a bit north. NAM went a lot south.






I think it's quite clear to expect very little if anything at all across northern NJ or NYC. From nothing to a dusting/coating to maybe an inch or so at absolute best. It is highly unlikely there would be any model correction that brings accumulating snows into the region.

What's still left unresolved is how much central NJ, southern NJ, southern third of Pennsylvania gets.

Are we talking a dusting/coating/inch - or 2-4" or perhaps 3-5"... I think that's still largely unresolved as the 6Z models underscore. However given the nature of the models, recent pattern, and recent analog of March 3 - I'd probably lean south/low on totals.

And given the northern border zone unknowns we have the southern zones that react as well - southern/central Virginia. Are we talking ice/rain/sleet? Are we talking several inches of snow and the ice/rain/sleet is for North Carolina?


12Z models will really help us tighten up these border zone questions....which still seem to be questionable at this time.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting 135. Pcroton:


















And the only WFO with a snow map out at present did their adjustment as expected. That was clearly a poorly made map last night and premature as well. It never matched any guidance at the time either.






That is why I asked Gary S about it being posted with such a sharp cut off due to the northern dry high pressure on Twitter and I think he took offense to me questioning the map being put out with such high numbers. I just wanted to know what they were seeing that I wasn't.
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Here are the Bufkit outputs. Remember...the NAM is being discarded as too high and too much. Also we have heavy wet snow. We have marginal temps. We will have a rising sun on Monday morning. All this factors in to putting a dent in these snowfall outputs and maps!










Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting 138. noreasterrrrr:
So zero for me u think..or mmm or maybe an inch??


Flurries? Dusting? Coating? Nothing?

Somewhere in there. Looks to be about the same as the March 3rd event. No snow storm north of central NJ.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Here are some SREF outputs. They look pretty good.

















Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
So zero for me u think..or mmm or maybe an inch??
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
At least unlike the March 3rd storm this one was pretty clearly heading in that direction from the start.

The only real holdup on committing entirely was yesterday's 0Z model runs that were further north but they have proven to be the outliers as their previous 12Z runs and following 12Z runs were south and in line with what we see now.

Subtle tweaks are of course possible but once again we are looking at a repeat of that same system. Whatever you got with the last one would be a good starting point for expectations for this one.

Snowfall will be coming in overnight Sunday and once the sun rises on Monday you will quickly see accumulations halt regardless of how much snow is still falling. In order to continue accumulations and not suffer melt from below you need to be in the 20s. Some locations in western MD, NW Virginia, and West Virginia may very well be cold enough to accumulate the majority of what falls.

Points further East and into New Jersey - once that sun rises high - the rays penetrate the clouds and snow and heat up the ground and pavement.

I will caution there are some models showing 12" plus potential and I would probably dismiss them at this time in favor of say the GFS output which seems to be the most reasonable of all the snowfall maps and guidance.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Why a repeat of March 3?
The pattern is similar. Strong polar vortex involvement. Progressive/flat flow. Stretched out energy.












Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736


















And the only WFO with a snow map out at present did their adjustment as expected. That was clearly a poorly made map last night and premature as well. It never matched any guidance at the time either.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Your 3/15 0Z Model Map Runs















Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736









Snowfall Probabilities: More often than not when you exceed 40% probability you seem to meet the threshold.









The following two maps are the HPC snowfall potential set at 50% and 90%. I believe in the 50% map with this particular storm as these products seem to be overly amplified for this event. I would disregard the 90% "worst case scenario" map entirely. It is not rooted in reality.








ICE is once again a concern for the central Middle Atlantic reaching westward.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting 130. listenerVT:


Thanks tons. I was just reading through your blog post closely and see where you said, " there's not much hope for any significant snows from central NJ northward" and am grateful. Of course, I'll be watching to see how things evolve.


You're in the clear no doubt about it. Other than regional snow showers from some frontal boundaries moving through it will be fine.


Quoting 131. originalLT:
As I just posted on Max's blog, looks like Both the NAM and GFS on the 00Z run , keep the snow South of us(except for may be Philly, and D.C. and Balt.).



As has been the case going back to Thursday now this is a repeat of the March 3rd event. The NWS and HPC were foolish in repeating the very same mistakes of before...and all because of what...the highly amplified NAM model guidance? Made no sense especially when the NAM started to come in line with the other guidance anyway. Just strange especially since they even discussed they were dismissing the NAM but then they put their snow so far north when that was THE ONLY model that had shown it there for so long. I just couldn't buy into that.


March 3rd repeat it is!


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
As I just posted on Max's blog, looks like Both the NAM and GFS on the 00Z run , keep the snow South of us(except for may be Philly, and D.C. and Balt.).
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting 128. Pcroton:
I think you are still fine Listener. It is a southern storm.

We will see noreastrr but the higher confidence lies south right now.

Until morning...


Thanks tons. I was just reading through your blog post closely and see where you said, " there's not much hope for any significant snows from central NJ northward" and am grateful. Of course, I'll be watching to see how things evolve.
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NAM 500MB now more resembles the other guidance and being the northern outlier now coming in line more south.




Here is the QPF - and remember with these maps this is the QPF accumulation per the past 3 hours this isn't radar reflectivity. Still, it's further south.




Now here is the NAM simulated radar reflectivity.







Being the farthest north of all the guidance there's not much hope for any significant snows from central NJ northward. The reason being is that this guidance has been discounted from the start as too amplified, too strong, and thus too far north...and now it has begun to emulate the other models presentation of the 500mb pattern.

So while the earlier runs may seem like a promising foot in the door to a northern solution they probably shouldn't be treated as such and should be dismissed as a northern outlier unless other guidance were to shift in support of it.

At this time it has no such support as other guidance seems to be really locked into the southern solution.

However there are a few of these 12Z models that do deliver a solid hit for central NJ - but everything keeps significant snowfall south of NYC today.

==============

Here were the 12Z runs in detail. Never posted the other models today - so here they are - and we can compare to tomorrows 0Z runs.


























==============

Well, that's about it for tonight, as other guidance comes in even later. We will put it all together in the morning and see what we've got. It's either going to be a March 3rd repeat or a little farther north - but nothing spectacular.

By farther north we'd probably be talking 3" in NYC, 6" central NJ. By March 3 repeat we know what that means... 3" central NJ and zero for NYC.

It seems NWS still holding onto thoughts of the little farther north potential over the March 3rd repeat.

Hopefully we get this all nailed down tomorrow morning.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
I think you are still fine Listener. It is a southern storm.

We will see noreastrr but the higher confidence lies south right now.

Until morning...
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Hmmm…a Monday storm, eh? I suppose somebody has to have one, it being St. Patrick's Day and all. ♧

Wicked windy today! Another branch came down in the driveway. It was probably hanging there since December's ice storm. We had gorgeous sunshine, though.

So, on Monday I'm supposed to drive to Concord, NH for meetings. Bad idea? Any chance the storm could go that far north?
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So a 1-3 2-4 event as of now..I just have a gut feeling it will trend a bit north. Not by much but enough for a general 4-6 across the area. Ul c ;)
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
upton updates and stays with snow.

NYZ072-150815-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-743 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

MONDAY SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BRISK AND COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
It's odd to see the NWS so stubborn yet again though. Makes you wonder about this guidance and those who are so on board with the March 3 repeat.

At this point I'd certainly lean towards the March 3 repeat than I would the NAM solutions.

We'll see better tomorrow.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Quoting 121. noreasterrrrr:
P sounds like the confident shift south is not so confident anymore, ? Did the models not all trend south on latest runs like u thought? Is today just a wash?


They're all south except for the NAM.

Leaves you dry.


I'm fairly confident in a March 3rd repeat here.

We'll confirm it one way or another in the morning.

The phasing of this storm still isn't as straight forward as one would think - it's very complicated and we won't quite know what to expect until we get a clearer picture on that.

Yet if you're looking for a miracle here don't expect it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
HPC indicates an ice potential. HPC tracks aren't too well defined at this point.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
P sounds like the confident shift south is not so confident anymore, ? Did the models not all trend south on latest runs like u thought? Is today just a wash?
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
NWS Forecasts:


Mount Holly for Zone 13, Inland Monmouth County:


NJZ013-150800-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD
630 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT
SNOW. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

MONDAY
SNOW. BRISK WITH HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW
80 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.


===========================


Upton for zone 72, Manhattan


NYZ072-151000-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
357 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

MONDAY
SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BRISK AND
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S.



====================

They just won't give in to the model guidance. Strange, really. From where we stand right now these are failed forecasts.

NYC is lucky to see a flurry. Me here lucky to match the 2-3" I got on March 3rd.

I guess we'll see the changes in the morning.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
I think it is clear we have a March 3rd storm repeat here folks.


18Z GFS:






Other than the NAM and RPM models everything is south. So south it is.

We'll confirm tomorrow morning but it sure seems like this is the way to go.



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Afternoon Updates began post #66
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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Glen Schwartz of NBC 10 PA




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Brad Field of NBC CT News

RPM model output for Monday morning:




Way outside the lines of all present guidance including the "crazy Nam"

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
18Z NAM is of course a beautiful map but I don't think it's rooted in reality. It is curious it has not flipped to match other guidance. If you recall with the March 3rd event the NAM did flip to follow along. With this one it has remained steadfastly on the northern side and the strongest. It has marched along with the other guidance during the north and south shifts - it hasn't been some strange outlier in that regard - just constantly north and wet. Do we discount it? Probably. Is the HPC/NWS discounting it? Nope. Other forecasters? Entirely.






18Z GFS snow map is not out yet...as the run hasn't completed.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Just seems like a no go for central NJ to NYC now.





Given that these disturbances are well defined, well sampled, and in the US....I have a hard time discounting the 12Z and 18Z guidance that shows the March 3rd repeat. We would need to see some dramatic guidance shifts at 0Z and 6Z to think otherwise here.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Alright here's the 24hour progression of both the GFS and the NAM. All 4 runs of each model. Seems like SOUTH is the way to go at this point. Question is what do the 0Z and 12Z of tomorrow show - do we have some other flip flop with better sampling of the disturbances? Or are we on the March 3rd storm bandwagon earlier than before....








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Afternoon Updates began post #66
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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736
Gary S of Mount Holly defending his forecast but acknowledges potential change. I think it has to if current guidance prevails.


PhillyWx.com ‏@phillywx 1h

@GarySzatkowski Would not be surprised if this changes quite a bit. Sharper cutoff on northern fringe for one...

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h
@phillywx I'd be shocked if it doesn't change.

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Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 2h
Storm total snowfall map has been issued by @NWS_MountHolly for late Sunday into Monday storm.

Jeff Lamb ‏@oxlamb 30m
@GarySzatkowski @NWS_MountHolly seems high for all the dry air expected from the northern high.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 25m
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Possibly, unless we're too low or just right.

Jeff Lamb ‏@oxlamb 22m
@GarySzatkowski @NWS_MountHolly why put out a map if it has a low confidence either way? Just a briefing and statement would suffice.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 21m
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Didn't say that. Stop looking for certainty in an uncertain world.


Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Plus received a half dozen requests from emergency managers for briefing package with snow forecast.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 19m
@oxlamb @NWS_MountHolly Bottom line is, if you don't like it, no one is forcing you to look at it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12736

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Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.