Snow Threat Sunday-Monday - Middle Atlantic States

By: Pcroton , 12:08 AM GMT on March 14, 2014

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Update Section, March 16, 4PM

Afternoon analysis shows that the earlier model solutions showed the high pressure suppression as too strong and storm impacts have nudged northward through Central NJ.


Updates begin on Post #267







March 16, 8AM

Snow and Ice threatens the Middle Atlantic states while Severe Weather hits the Gulf Coast and Florida.

Updates Posts 228-233





Updates Posts 228-233






Blog Opening, March 13, 9PM

A potential snow storm threat exists for the Middle Atlantic States for Sunday into Monday.






Two pieces of energy will combine over the Southern Plains on Saturday.








Here are the 12Z Models from 3/13 - centered at 96hr time frame - 8AM Monday.





Notice the amount of energy we are dealing with of which the models have resolved strung out along the frontal system. These scenarios frequently change as guidance nears in on the event. It would be unwise to trust any model guidance at this distance. Recently we have been somewhere in the 48 to 72 hour window where guidance has locked in. This would be the Friday 12Z runs or perhaps Saturday 0Z runs.




Recently guidance has been struggling with storm systems due to the pattern changing and the split flow patterns in the 500MB layer. The result is wildly ranging model solutions both individually and as a group. Note how wild the pattern is through the Pacific and Western US/Canada. These multiple stream splits will undoubtedly give the models fits.






What we know is a system will enter the Southern Plains on Saturday bringing the chance of severe weather. How the storm tracks from here is in question at this time.








The HPC appears to be fairly interested in the threat.

HPC guidance through 8AM Monday.











The NAO is once again going to be near neutral timed with yet another storm threat. While we've never gotten the "strong negative NAO" we heard was coming most of the winter (and never did) there was always this little dip that coincided with our storm threats along the upper middle atlantic coast.







Taking a peek at the long term it appears the Pacific features that were driving our cold weather outbreaks has begun to break up.


The dominating North Pacific SST anomaly has been relaxing.







The PNA is heading negative.







Our jet stream will feature quite an amplified yet fast moving pattern resulting in quite the temperature roller coaster. No longer are we locked into a persistently strong East Pacific ridge and thus Eastern trough.









Looking ahead we appear to be remaining on the cool side although not nearly as brutal as before.







Here are your CFS2 Temperature and Precipitation Maps. It appears through at least April we will remain cool.


The weeklies:















April Monthly:






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Water poochie want some snow? Come visit your MIL and stop by my March Igloo, which will be up by tomorrow afternoon hopefully!
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Temperatures have been trending 4-5F colder than guidance suggested in central VA, could mean the low is moving faster than the high. You guys in Jersey and PA can have it all, I'm tired!
Member Since: January 21, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
What is the Euro saying with this storm? Can someone post the 12Z Euro when it comes out?
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
The 12Z NAM now has that Wed. Low well off the coast. The 12Z GFS shows nothing for Wed. too. And not much change for tonight's/Mondays event. So it looks close, but "no cigar" for us in the NYC Metro area.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7611
hey P?
my wind is really picking up. It's sunny, not a cloud in the sky- but we are getting REAL gusty. 25mph + gusts.
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Our high is now forecast at 38F instead of 43F. Snow forecast now an inch and a half. I'm curious to see what the storm actually does.

Yes, Aquak, most of us on this blog are a little nuts when it comes to snow. I love a good snowstorm - anytime, anywhere, and the bigger the better!
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Quoting 252. jaypup:
The NAM has shown that second Low blow up along the coast on Wednesday 3 runs in a row, which is interesting. Could there be something to it? It is surprising how much local METS on TV seem to hug the NAM and its southern track.


I'm surprised the model is weighted at all given how it's been all over the place with this storm and now is the only one to have such an amplified version of the second disturbance whereas all the other models have that heading off shore and weaker.

I don't think I'd pay too much attention to it unless other models shifted the 2nd disturbance closer to the coast in future runs.


Quoting 253. originalLT:
Well, I'll take a break too, hope that strong mid-March sun will get to work. Also will be monitoring the Barometer. It's at 30.17" here in Sw CT. and has been steady. Wind is strong though, out of basically the NW at 10-20mph. It's clear. and 31F


Yep, we need several hours to pass so we can compare the progression of the imagery and surface features and then maybe try to extrapolate a moisture boundary. It may be difficult since the low heads ESE for a while early today - until later tonight where it turns NE.

Quoting 254. absurfer:
One thing is for certain whatever falls will melt fast enjoy the moment


This is one of the big keys as to why I'm not all that upset if I get an inch or four inches. It's gone quickly anyway. Almost a nuisance to go shovel something that will melt in a day's time. Unless we had a bigger accumulation I'd almost rather none at all.


Quoting 255. cchamp6:
From my experience here is what your all battling. These strong cold high pressure systems not only hold storms to the south. Which BTW I cannot believe is happening again in March. The cold dry air they provide undercut the moisture falling from the sky. So if your not in the heavier "zone" you really get screwed. Guess what I'm saying is these setups are no good if you want snow and your just north of the more persistent precip. You can pretty much figure on the lower end of what your hoping for. Where as in the reverse setup. Warm air over riding sense cold seems to overproduce.



Interestingly enough - even when we had northern storm tracks this season produced two distinct repeate features with every storm. We had a sharp QPF cutoff and we had a narrow swath of snowfall.

Also last year we did see these suppressed March lows - but they were poorly organized systems with poor vertical stacking which resulted in failed systems - with a few hours each of heavy wet snow flanked by warmer rains.... remember they hovered around the DC area and then slid off the coast.



At this point all I am looking to figure out is do I get an inch or do I get four inches here in central NJ - and that plays northward to NYC in do they get a trace or do they get 2" as a maximum surprise.

Definitely not looking for any sudden change in guidance and forecasting that dramatically shifts the storm's impacts 150 miles north. That's clearly not happening.

However given the sharp QPF cutoffs - a change in 20-30 miles of the precip shield's northern cutoff is the difference between a trace and something that might need a plowing.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Here are the present wind flows.

At the surface you can see the boundary the low will take to the ESE in the short term.





At 850MB and at 700MB (second image) you can see the well stacked low features which aides in moisture transport. You can also see the suppression from both the northern plains high and the departing upper level low in the NE (the current polar vortex).










And at 500mb you can see how the vorticity is stretched out rather than consolidated and also strongly positive in tilt which favors the less amplified and progressive flow.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
From my experience here is what your all battling. These strong cold high pressure systems not only hold storms to the south. Which BTW I cannot believe is happening again in March. The cold dry air they provide undercut the moisture falling from the sky. So if your not in the heavier "zone" you really get screwed. Guess what I'm saying is these setups are no good if you want snow and your just north of the more persistent precip. You can pretty much figure on the lower end of what your hoping for. Where as in the reverse setup. Warm air over riding sense cold seems to overproduce.
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One thing is for certain whatever falls will melt fast enjoy the moment
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Well, I'll take a break too, hope that strong mid-March sun will get to work. Also will be monitoring the Barometer. It's at 30.17" here in Sw CT. and has been steady. Wind is strong though, out of basically the NW at 10-20mph. It's clear. and 31F
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7611
The NAM has shown that second Low blow up along the coast on Wednesday 3 runs in a row, which is interesting. Could there be something to it? It is surprising how much local METS on TV seem to hug the NAM and its southern track.
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82


To see if NWS forecasts are on or not we can follow the HPC's QPF line later today using radar indiciated accumultaions. We can look further west to see if precipitation is accumulating above those contours.






========================
Morning Updates begin Post 228
========================
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Quoting 248. cooldogs13:
P we have a winter weather advisory here in brick for 1-3. Hoping for closer to 3 if the storm came a little more north but can't get too greedy because monmouth dosent have anything and I'm am about 5 mins from monmouth county in extreme northern ocean


Good Morning.

I just have an HWO here in Monmouth:

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.




Everything I've seen so far I'd lean high because it looks like the moisture is ahead of the suppression some, the high is weaker (2-4MB) than guidance wanted it at this time, and as Gary S said last night "are we chasing this storm or the march 3 storm?" which in some cases it seems like a lot of people are trying to "not make the same mistake" in being too far north like they were March 3.

We'll see how it goes. No giant surprises though I'd think but... you, I, Matlack, jersey and a few others are in this narrow corridor where we could bust at a coating or boon at 4-5" and the difference in the moisture suppression would be so minor between the two.

It looks like the higher totals have a decent shot given this morning's imagery - but as we have found this winter you cannot just extrapolate an error across the board as some times things balance out by the end.

I'll be back in a few hours so we can compare some imagery and see what we have. Minute by Minute won't help this morning.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358



Is the moisture of this storm ahead of the suppressing high?

Is the high, which is weaker than guidance modeled, a litle less of a suppressing player?


I'd say we get our answer in the next 6-9 hours.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
P we have a winter weather advisory here in brick for 1-3. Hoping for closer to 3 if the storm came a little more north but can't get too greedy because monmouth dosent have anything and I'm am about 5 mins from monmouth county in extreme northern ocean
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
Quoting 244. aquak9:
ya'll some crack-head snow freaks


I want 12 feet.

I'll shovel it and enjoy it.

I also enjoy the people who can't stand it....listening to them curse and yell and mumble the whole time they're clearing their driveways and such.

It's a nice sideshow.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Aquak9, well, you are half right, --not a crack-head, just a "snow freak"!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7611
Quoting 242. originalLT:
Well, on your water vapor map on post # 240, that low North of Maine is pulling away, possibly making more "room" for our Tennessee Valley low?


It's certainly a good sign and you can see the moisture streaming NE from the valley region towards that departing low.

That coupled with the weaker than modeled high we see - eh maybe something comes of it here where you guys get 2" and I get 5". That'd be the absolute best case maximums I think we see here in terms of a "northern surprise" LT.

Definitely keep an eye on Wisconsin through this morning and see how that boundary pushes SE. Also see if the storm's moisture can "leap out" ahead of that high that is digging southward.

In a few hours we can see where we're at with the vapor imagery.

Here is a LINK TO the image I drew upon for reference - since it seems to highlight the important boundary features the best.



Quoting 241. HeavySnow:
I'm ready and waiting. As always. Close the schools one more time! What's an extra day of no summer at this point? Hammer time.


Looks like you get another snow storm. While it's not the crippler we all want (54" from DC to Boston) it's better than 70s and mud which is more typical of today for you I would think than this!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
ya'll some crack-head snow freaks
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Vapor seems to show the story. Thoese are the features to watch.







Untouched:







========================
Morning Updates begin Post 228
========================
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Well, on your water vapor map on post # 240, that low North of Maine is pulling away, possibly making more "room" for our Tennessee Valley low?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7611
I'm ready and waiting. As always. Close the schools one more time! What's an extra day of no summer at this point? Hammer time.
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And obviously this is the big picture to watch today.





You can see the suppresion layer moving through Central Wisconsin.








You can see the moisture cutoff on Radar very well.





How far south does that cutoff drop and how far north does the main precip shield build. There's your unanswered question.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Yeah, I wanted one more "big one" to end the season. WCBS radio, which is really Accuweather on the weekends, is saying rain and in the lower 40's for Wed.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7611
Quoting 235. originalLT:
You are right "P", I'm playing the MEGA BALL to win $400 million!! Ha Ha.!


Exactly.



Quoting 236. originalLT:
Steven "Di" has his "final" snow map up. "P" you are a trace to 2", I'm at a "trace".


I shall take a look. He has done well with this one this time around. He seems all too happy and eager for the suppressed idea to work out though. Shame on any weather followers who don't want the storm! Blasphemy!

I want four feet of snow tonight. None of this trace stuff.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
So here are the 0Z NAM/GFS runs for 12Z today (8am). And here's the pressure map at 8AM.


Analysis: 1034MB
GFS: 1036MB
NAM: 1038MB

Not sure how much it matters but it leads me to think that the models may be a bit too suppressed.

As we know the highly sensitive border areas such as Central NJ could be anywhere from a coating to 4" based on how this works out in the end.

If the strength of the high is directly related to suppression then the models have the high too strong and therefore too suppressed.

Again we're not talking some huge differences here. For areas of NYC we're talking an absolute maximum of 2" surprise high totals. Central NJ say 4-5" maximum surprise totals. That's only if these models are too far suppressed. There are no visions of 6-12" suddenly arriving in NYC just because the High is 2-4MB weaker than modeled at this stage. Don't torture yourselves LOL.










Impressive storm yet again. Huge sub-tropical connection.












Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Steven "Di" has his "final" snow map up. "P" you are a trace to 2", I'm at a "trace".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7611
You are right "P", I'm playing the MEGA BALL to win $400 million!! Ha Ha.!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7611
Quoting 227. aquak9:
hi P-
hi all you sad muddy snow-freaks-

Can't believe ya'll are STILL havin' to discuss winter weather. Real proud of P, for opening his own place- and it's been real nice seeing everyone's interaction.

As for this event? my locals are still just giving me showers, although someone snuck out a weather write-up; funny how it wasn't reflected in the public write-up, though.

~peace ya'll


You're getting thunderstorms. See Post 232.


Quoting 225. jaypup:
The 06Z GFS looks steady and further north than the NAM. I just don't know what to believe anymore. What if the NAM is correct with an exploding 2nd Low? Unlikely, but what if? One more model run and it's time to jump into "Nowcasting"


The NAM has been fairly volitile with this whole event including the second hit. I am surprised at how much it has been valued in forecasting the event - especially the suppression. I don't know what to think either until we see it unfolding late today.

If the GFS wins I can get up to 4" depending on the model run. If the NAM wins it's a coating or so.


Quoting 226. PhillySnow:
Good morning, all. NWS now has us down to an inch. Oh well. Temperatures rebound quickly and I'll enjoy the onset of spring.


Whether it's an inch or 4" at this stage after having over 6 feet of snow this winter I won't really care much either way. It won't impact me tomorrow either way - but people who have schedules to keep would probably like to know what to expect.

Quoting 223. originalLT:
Maybe tomorrow, as I mentioned on Max's blog, the March Sun will do it's thing and erode or weaken the arctic high somewhat, thus leading to a slightly more northern extent of the precipitation, --less suppression.


We'll be following the high today and seeing where it is versus the NAM and GFS solutions for it and see if we can spot a trend one way or another. Other than that we will watch the vapor and radars as the day unfolds.

Thinking anywhere from nothing to a maximum of 2" surprise for you guys up there. In the end...inconsequential.

Nobody plays the lottery to win $2 back....and that's kinda what we're trying to do here I guess.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
And here are some model maps for the second storm. NAM the only one really big on it - and it's been doing this for a day now. HPC seems on board with the idea in some capacity at least snow wise. Other models seem to just take the 2nd disturbance off shore. Curious how much the NWS/HPC is in love with the NAM solutions regarding this Sunday-Wednesday time frame. The second storm lays somewhere in the late Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
























Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Here is the severe thunderstorm potential along the Gulf Coast and Florida: Today for the Panhandle and tonight/tomorrow for the Penninsula.

























Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Here are the other models.













Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Here are the 0Z and 06 NAM Model Maps














Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Here is the 0Z and 06 GFS Model Maps














Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Good Morning all. Will be doing several posts of images here.

We have snowfall, freezing rain, severe thunderstorms - and a potential 2nd storm on Wednesday to show.


We will start with the official products from the HPC and NWS




































Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
hi P-
hi all you sad muddy snow-freaks-

Can't believe ya'll are STILL havin' to discuss winter weather. Real proud of P, for opening his own place- and it's been real nice seeing everyone's interaction.

As for this event? my locals are still just giving me showers, although someone snuck out a weather write-up; funny how it wasn't reflected in the public write-up, though.

~peace ya'll
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Good morning, all. NWS now has us down to an inch. Oh well. Temperatures rebound quickly and I'll enjoy the onset of spring.
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The 06Z GFS looks steady and further north than the NAM. I just don't know what to believe anymore. What if the NAM is correct with an exploding 2nd Low? Unlikely, but what if? One more model run and it's time to jump into "Nowcasting"
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
Driving home from town near sunset, we were caught by a squall of ice pellets. The moon is up now and the snow and ice on Lake Champlain can be seen on the Burlington haze cam. Here's half the panoramic image:



Link
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Maybe tomorrow, as I mentioned on Max's blog, the March Sun will do it's thing and erode or weaken the arctic high somewhat, thus leading to a slightly more northern extent of the precipitation, --less suppression.
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Yup
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Quoting 219. noreasterrrrr:
So its not as cut an simple as march 3rd storm shunted south by PV..thereare some tricky players on the field...and according to those latest models they may have a hold on something new here. I know it wont be anything major but a 1-3 vs a 2-4 or so is a difference..especially when trying to move up in list of the top ten snowiest years. Can move up ranks as .5 in to 2" seperates standings lol really


Yeah it's different. Same idea in that a strung out energy is coming ENE and facing suppression but it's of a different kind.

As Gary S said earlier today: Are we fighting the March 3rd storm or today's storm?

I think it was his way of saying...drop the analog and just focus on what's in front of us.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Ah since we have good timing of 2100Z... here's what the 12Z models thought the high would be:




And here's what it is:







Seems the GFS had the strength right. NAM too strong.

Can we just extrapolate that outright and crown the GFS and throw out the NAM? Probably not as these things can recover over time... but it makes you think a little bit more.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
So its not as cut an simple as march 3rd storm shunted south by PV..thereare some tricky players on the field...and according to those latest models they may have a hold on something new here. I know it wont be anything major but a 1-3 vs a 2-4 or so is a difference..especially when trying to move up in list of the top ten snowiest years. Can move up ranks as .5 in to 2" seperates standings lol really
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Quoting 216. noreasterrrrr:
Great explanation P....thanks


Yep no problem.


Catch ya later.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Here's one of the primary differences between the 12Z NAM (south) and 12Z GFS (north).

Both at 39hrs:

NAM: 1032MB HIGH




GFS: 1026MB HIGH - thus less suppression.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Great explanation P....thanks
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Quoting 208. noreasterrrrr:
Boy I think that PV will be a late player in the game..look how moisture is bombing and intensifying in the south. If the northern influence to push storm south is even 10 hours late, wouldnt that make a big difference in track or no?


3 hours is a huge difference nevermind 10.

But this is more about the phasing issue.... and the vortex is less of a player coming in second to the high involved.

Black Circle = Previous storm that is kind of in the way. If it moved out quicker it would open a better northern path for our storm.

Magenta Circle = Strong high pressure that will suppress the storm south.






So let's say that high is a bit slower - and better yet - a bit weaker. Then our storm comes further north.

Let's say that previous storm exits 2-3 hours earlier than expected. Our whole pattern shifts northward.

Those are the inhibiting factors here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358
Always intersting though to see how models can potentially screw something up this time...kinda been the theme this winter ..and only gunna get worse lol
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
Quoting 211. noreasterrrrr:
Oh yea thats right, almost every storm! !!!!!!! Lol.



Every time. One thing that has not been common is the surprise return of higher totals once guidance "took it away from us" after "giving it to us on earlier runs" though. That I haven't seen.

0Z runs will be interesting. I never know if I will try to see them at night or just wait until the morning.

No reason to really hang around for it since we're not talking about a blockbuster event here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 54 Comments: 8358

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.