Major Winter Storm March 12-13 NY State to New England

By: Pcroton , 1:49 PM GMT on March 03, 2014

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3/12 8AM

Heavy Snow continues to impact north east New England.

Today's updates begin on Post #559






We continue to watch another storm system for early next week. These models have been all over the place with type of storm and track the past three days so I think at this time guidance is largely useless and should be considered very low confidence.








============================================
March 3, 2014
(the following consists of old information)

Winter Pattern Continues


Modeling and Analsysis continue to show that the winter pattern is going to continue for at least another two weeks.

We are getting late in the season and winter is relaxing it's grip but there are a number of factors that could allow a few more systems to produce before we head into Spring.

We still have the North Pacific Anomaly that has been so prevalent in this winter's pattern so while that still exists it is difficult to envision a rapid change.





We will still have the reloading pattern of a strong Pacific ridge and an Eastern US trough which has occurred time and again this season.






We still have cold air available as a result of not only the pattern but the long duration of the cold and snow pack involved and the frozen great lakes.













What we need to keep in mind is that our average highs are pushing into the 50s now in NJ and southward. So while we may remain well below normal we would now require absolutely perfect timing and storm track to get a significant snowfall threat. Most events should remain on the light to moderate side or more of the onset snow quickly changing over variety. We're still not done but the threat is dwindling. It is just that time of year.

While we wonder about Spring and while the significant snowfall threats decrease we still can't count out more snow. In what form and intensity is never a known factor but the elements are in place to continue with renewed arctic fronts, clippers, and a couple of coastal events. When we near these events we will focus in on them closer and try to see what they are really up to.


The most interesting item on the menu appears to be a late week coastal event. Energy from a storm currently affecting the northern Gulf Coast heads east and becomes stretched out and stalls before a second disturbance from the central plains renews cyclogenesis off the coastline.




At this time range it is difficult to ascertain impacts but one could assume we see at least fringe effects from the system. This time of year timing becomes more crucial with each day in regards to frozen versus liquid and how much so it doesn't pay to start guessing.

Friday:





Later on Sunday there are hints of another arctic cold front that could feature a low pressure development before it moves out. On the following Tuesday we also see yet another clipper disturbance affect the region.





After that one storm that is already generating buzz as the one to watch comes in around March 15th.




As we can see the cold and active winter pattern continues. Just exactly what affects the region and in what form remains to be seen.



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614. listenerVT
3:22 AM GMT on March 14, 2014
The last of my snow photos for this storm. Enjoy!









Then the sun came out!





Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5484
613. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:08 AM GMT on March 14, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
612. PhillySnow
11:50 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 602. originalLT:
Lets all just wait for the 12Z on Friday, or the 00Z Friday/Sat.
We're all so funny, aren't we? Wanting that snow whenever we can get it! I think we should all just move to Alaska. :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
611. cchamp6
11:18 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
I dont know what will end up happening. What I do know is that what the models show today most certainly wont happen. LOL
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
610. Pcroton
10:56 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Upton.... and with the key "another DAY OR TWO before good sampling"

So what now, we get no answer tomorrow, and only get good sampling on Saturday?? So what now... no good guidance until the Sunday 00Z models?

Terrible... but at least they're warning us.



THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A TRANSITION
TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MOST
INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR S.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DEVIATE RIGHT OFF THE BAT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW ON FRI AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE
INTERACTION OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS 24-36 HOURS FROM
NOW...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS IS LENDING TO LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AS
THE TWO STREAMS MERGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE ONE STRONG
INDICATOR OF THIS ANALYSIS IS THAT THE EC/GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS ARE ALL INDICATING A TRACK FURTHER N THAN WHAT THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING. THE CMC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IS THE FURTHEST N WITH THE SYSTEM...SO
HAVE WEIGHTED THIS WITH WPC`S GUIDANCE AS IT FIT THE SCENARIO.

WHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THERE IS BETTER
SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DATA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...TODAYS
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N...WHICH IS A STEP IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION.
POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE COLD
AIR FOR A SNOW EVENT...AND THERE IS A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING BUT THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR N DOES THE CENTER OF THE LOW (AND THE
HIGHER QPF VALUES) GET. TIMING IS ALSO AN ISSUE.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
609. Pcroton
10:53 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
DC/Baltimore:




A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
WILL FUNNEL CHILLY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS COLD AIR IN PLACE AND
MORE ON THE WAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO PRODUCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION LINGERING MONDAY EVENING.
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCES ARE
LIKELY MONDAY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD FORM
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EURO MODEL SAYS THE LOW WILL FORM
OFFSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA...THE GFS MODEL SAYS THE LOW WILL FORM
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. LARGE UNCERTAINTIES ON LOW DEVELOPMENT.
THE MODELS DO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE LOW OFFSHORE AND MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
608. Pcroton
10:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Mount Holly for me:



SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT.

MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.


MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.



=================

Remember where we are now. "Highs in the low 30s" means no accumulations. We need to be in the 20s. Tough sell there.




==================


NWS following the HPC because the models are screwy. Well, what is the HPC following? Tea leaves? Squirrel bones? Come'on now.




...



THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE COMPUTER MODELS WITH
REGARDS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
FORM ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE 12Z GFS NOW HAS A SWATH OF MEASURABLE PCPN AFFECTING THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUN NGT/MON ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW ACROSS SRN NJ/SE PA AND THE NRN DELMARVA. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS BEGINNING TO TREND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND ALSO HAS
SOME MEASURABLE PCPN FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THIS
PERIOD...WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO ALONG WITH THE LATEST WPC PROGS
AND
BRING HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS TO SRN NJ/DELMARVA/SE PA FOR SUN
NGT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
607. Pcroton
10:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 606. washingtonian115:
They seem unusually excited.


Well, remember the last storm you ended up with, they had northern New England getting it at the 3 day period. Then you. Then New England again. Then Me. Then all of us. Then just me. Then....

I mean, they were all OVER the place worse than model guidance! Remember that?


So yeah, here we go again, let's see how much they screw this one up in the 24-72 hour range.

:-D


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
606. washingtonian115
10:34 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 605. Pcroton:
HPC through 8PM Sunday - which is the onset of this system.





They seem unusually excited.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
605. Pcroton
10:29 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
HPC through 8PM Sunday - which is the onset of this system.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
604. Pcroton
10:27 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 601. PhillySnow:
I think we are talking ourselves out of this storm, P. Got storm expectation fatigue! :)


Yeah we very well could be. We've had a handful at the end here that looked good for days and then went elsewhere 3 days and in on the models so I am just more and more distrustful of the guidance.

Plus given the split flow pattern which seems to be a known nemesis for guidance it is tough to trust them.

Interesting however that the models may be doing a bit of a reversal for our area though. Instead of starting with bombing us for days on end before ending up elsewhere maybe they're starting elsewhere and ending up here.



Quoting 602. originalLT:
Lets all just wait for the 12Z on Friday, or the 00Z Friday/Sat.


Yeah it's a good plan. We've been averaging 72 hours and in I think with most of the recent storms for trust. That would start with tonights 0Z models.


Quoting 603. cchamp6:
Feeling like this storm was a bust. My rain gauge had .21". I believe forecasts were in the one inch range. Very little freezing rain. Snowfall of around a half an inch. The parts that were forecasted correctly. Temps plunging today and wind gusts. My station recorded a 36 mph gust. I am not having much faith in weather models or forecasts lately. NO knock to you P. Something just doesnt seem right with these models.



No big deal.

The models struggle with the split flow pattern and the changing of patterns and seasons.

The NAM incidentally did pick up on a larger dry slot from Philly to CT whereas the GFS was very wet. Also the NAM was the first model to push the rain/snow line far north into central NY to southern VT/NH but was also disregarded.

Upton NY went with a drier QPF scenario overall and did fairly well with it.

What happened here was the structure of the low was more stretched out SW to NE than most models - again the NAM did see this but apparently was not weighted - and it hasn't performed too well in 2014 so that doesn't help it's cause.

Also the well stacked nature of the low held the thermal boundaries really tight so there was no sweeping through of cold air - instead the thermal boundaries help sharp to the low itself regardless of time of day.

The storm also blew itself out a bit as it approached our region - which is what the NAM was trying to show with it's dry slot - so once the cold air raced in - it came with dry air - so there was no back side precip for us.

Unfortunately we don't see or trust these things until the final hours. Seems to have been a problem this winter in several instances. It's always a case of hindsight and the reason is that you don't ever want to just trust the very next model run that takes a jump. By the time we had confirmation this was the way to go - it was already doing it and was no longer a forecast.

These models are god awful and a good part of that is the lack of proper data input. This is something that has worsened over the years and will continue to do so.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
603. cchamp6
9:55 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Feeling like this storm was a bust. My rain gauge had .21". I believe forecasts were in the one inch range. Very little freezing rain. Snowfall of around a half an inch. The parts that were forecasted correctly. Temps plunging today and wind gusts. My station recorded a 36 mph gust. I am not having much faith in weather models or forecasts lately. NO knock to you P. Something just doesnt seem right with these models.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
602. originalLT
9:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Lets all just wait for the 12Z on Friday, or the 00Z Friday/Sat.
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601. PhillySnow
8:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 600. Pcroton:
I think there has been 4 or 5 times this winter that this feature has been talked up - and only once did we get a decent storm anyway....the other times it failed.
I think we are talking ourselves out of this storm, P. Got storm expectation fatigue! :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
600. Pcroton
8:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
500MB:





Surface:





You can see the chaotic nature of the 500mb pattern.

Something else we see is the upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska. Seems a lot of the time this winter when we had that we didn't end up with a good storm on the East coast.

Steve DiMartino seems to really zero in on that feature a lot so go scan his twitter in regards to it.

I think there has been 4 or 5 times this winter that this feature has been talked up - and only once did we get a decent storm anyway....the other times it failed.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
599. PhillySnow
8:48 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Steve D's read on Monday's storm:

"I decided I better address this whole storm idea for Monday before everything gets a bit crazy. The models are at it again, showing a major winter storm five days out, this time Monday. Much like the last threat, which was yesterday (mostly rain btw), there is a lot in this pattern that is missing for a major winter storm. I discussed many of these factors in the Long Range Thoughts Discussion this morning.

Now, I am not saying a winter storm can not happen. I am saying this set up needs perfect interaction and timing for the solution seen on the 12Z models to happen. If the high is a bit too strong, the storm is suppressed south. If the cold air is influenced by the Pacific air mass invading much of North America, then we end up too warm. Then there are factors like shear out the disturbance before ever reaching the East coast. So this is no slam dunk.

Stating that, you will have the usual suspect putting out snow maps or model snow maps, declaring names for the storm, and making the typical comparison to March 1993 or one version or another of the President's Day storm. Don't buy the hype ladies and gentlemen. We'll have a good handle on this storm by tomorrow evening when all the disturbances are completely sampled. In the meantime, enjoy the 50's and 60's on Saturday."
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
598. Pcroton
8:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
For what it's worth here's the 12Z models...they're not nearly as crazy as the 0Z were. You can see all this strung out energy along the frontal system they show. Would consider these in very low confidence. Lower than usual. I think we are targeting Sunday night as the event onset so you'd hope by tomorrows 12Z runs we'd have something acceptable but I'm not so sure. Models have really been struggling with the changing seasons and the 500mb leve with the split flow patterns.

If anything I put these together so we have a reference point for tomorrow so we know if things are closing in or not.
















Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
597. Pcroton
8:33 PM GMT on March 13, 2014










VERMONT

...ADDISON COUNTY...
SALISBURY 21.5

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
ST. JOHNSBURY 17.0

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
1 N NORTH WILLISTON 19.0
1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO 18.6


...ESSEX COUNTY...
1 ENE AVERILL 14.2

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
GEORGIA CENTER 14.0

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE 17.0

...ORANGE COUNTY...
RANDOLPH CENTER 21.5

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
1 WNW WESTFIELD 22.5

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
WEST RUTLAND 24.6

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
EAST ROXBURY 24.3

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
SHARON 26.0




MAINE

...ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...
1 E LIVERMORE FALLS 10.0

...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
SHERMAN 20.2


...CARROLL COUNTY...
2 NNE JACKSON 18.0

...COOS COUNTY...
6 NE PITTSBURG 14.0

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
BRIDGTON 9.3

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
RANGELEY 18.0

...GRAFTON COUNTY...
1 SE FRANCONIA 20.0

...KENNEBEC COUNTY...
WATERVILLE 12.0

...OXFORD COUNTY...
E DIXFIELD 20.0

...PENOBSCOT COUNTY...
LINCOLN 20.0

...PISCATAQUIS COUNTY...
DOVER-FOXCROFT 4 SW 18.0

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
THE FORKS 20.0

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
TOPSFIELD 17.9
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
596. Pcroton
7:53 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Yeah I really wouldn't put much stock into Monday's storm potential at this time. If the models are all over the place both individually and as a group that's a warning sign that something's not right. There is nothing to gain until they start to zero in some.


Meanwhile in regards to temps they look to rebound after a cold night. Saturday looks nice.



Tonight:






Friday Highs:






Saturday Highs:


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
595. washingtonian115
7:48 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 593. cooldogs13:


you stole the last snow storm from us central jersey folks.. We got 3 inches and the day before winter storm warning for 6-10
We deserved that one and the next one.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
594. PhillySnow
7:46 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Congrats on all the snow, Listener. Enjoy! And thanks for the pics - vicarious thrills for me! :)

tlawson and NEwxguy - I'm glad the snow came through in your areas!

I just can't even look at the models of Monday's storm, truly. There are just too many disappointments and I feel it'll be rain here. Not that it hasn't happened in the past. We had a great April storm just a few years ago. This year, though, the models keep predicting storms that keep disappearing.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
593. cooldogs13
7:42 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 592. washingtonian115:
I just want one last hurrah! without anyone trying to steal it from me this time like all winter.


you stole the last snow storm from us central jersey folks.. We got 3 inches and the day before winter storm warning for 6-10
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
592. washingtonian115
7:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 590. Pcroton:


This model has been horrendous the past two days with this system.

From raging south to north coastal low. To zonal northern New England system. To zonal Virginia system. To zonal Georgia system. Now to this two-lowed monster system.




The model couldn't be any more volitile than this on it's own.


Hopefully tomorrow guidance will be a bit more settled and we can have something to look at.
I just want one last hurrah! without anyone trying to steal it from me this time like all winter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
591. Pcroton
7:37 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 587. listenerVT:
Well, we've warmed up to 8F! :-D. Wind is 7 with gusts to 16; feels like -3F.

Went out and shoveled and measured, and I think we were up to 19" at noon. With the wind picking up it's going to blow around now. I'll post more photos later this evening, maybe around 9pm. I know the radar doesn't look like much now, but it is still snowing lightly.

LT, you may be correct that we'll end with around 20". That'll do~!



So you eventually hit your mark of over 18". Fantastic!!! The back side redevelopment of this storm was impressive in that it didn't look like it was going to happen at one point.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
590. Pcroton
7:36 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 586. originalLT:
12Z GFS now has snow moving into the NYC Metro area, on Monday, especially to central and southern NJ and Pa. We''ll see if this northern trend continues.!


This model has been horrendous the past two days with this system.

From raging south to north coastal low. To zonal northern New England system. To zonal Virginia system. To zonal Georgia system. Now to this two-lowed monster system.




The model couldn't be any more volitile than this on it's own.


Hopefully tomorrow guidance will be a bit more settled and we can have something to look at.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
589. NEwxguy
7:23 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Not a nice day out there at all,wind is gusting over 40 at times.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15639
588. washingtonian115
7:04 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 586. originalLT:
12Z GFS now has snow moving into the NYC Metro area, on Monday, especially to central and southern NJ and Pa. We''ll see if this northern trend continues.!
Screw you and stop taking my damn snow!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
587. listenerVT
4:53 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Well, we've warmed up to 8F! :-D. Wind is 7 with gusts to 16; feels like -3F.

Went out and shoveled and measured, and I think we were up to 19" at noon. With the wind picking up it's going to blow around now. I'll post more photos later this evening, maybe around 9pm. I know the radar doesn't look like much now, but it is still snowing lightly.

LT, you may be correct that we'll end with around 20". That'll do~!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5484
586. originalLT
4:17 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
12Z GFS now has snow moving into the NYC Metro area, on Monday, especially to central and southern NJ and Pa. We''ll see if this northern trend continues.!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7448
585. tlawson48
3:48 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
This is why our snow won't go away: Number of days since Veterans Day above 50F: 6 days, with only one day above 60F.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 539
584. NEwxguy
3:35 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Still got light snow flying around here.couple of inches of fluffly snow
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15639
583. tlawson48
3:22 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Still coming down hard, although I think it will wrap up soon.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 539
582. listenerVT
3:16 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Compare these with post 550.




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581. listenerVT
3:11 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 577. NEwxguy:
VT,you got this one good.
Guess you won't be seeing any bare ground until April


I'm okay with that, as long as my bulbs don't try coming up underneath the snow and never turn green for lack of sunlight (as happened two years ago). I just want it to green up and warm up by Easter on April 20th. My husband's birthday is right after that. :-)


LT, Thanks! Looks like it's finally winding down here. Still snowing, but we got one peek of sunshine, and our plow guy came a second time around 10:30am, so I'm a happy camper.

I think my husband is becoming a real Vermonter. He could have worked from home today, but he went to work ~ on time ~ even though the plow guy hadn't come yet. :-)
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580. originalLT
2:26 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Hi Hurricane614, it bottomed out at 29.03", so never made it below 29.00". Now up to 29.57" and rising rapidly.
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579. Hurricane614
2:21 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
LT, how low did your barometer end up going?
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578. originalLT
2:15 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Congrats on your snow,Listener, I guess you'll wind up with about 20" or more!
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577. NEwxguy
2:15 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
VT,you got this one good.
Guess you won't be seeing any bare ground until April
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576. listenerVT
2:12 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Good Morning, all. At 8am it was 4F here and the snow measurement was 17.5"! It is still falling fast, though should lighten up in a few hours, ending around 10pm. I'm in that sweet little circle of precip hanging over northern Vermont. Here are some photos (note that some are easily compared with the comparison photos I posted here last evening at post 543!









See the Dogwood bush in the foreground? No.




This must be mid-March! Ha!
Spring is one week away, right?
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575. NEwxguy
2:07 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
surpising backend snows,expecting just a coating got almost 2 inches and still snowing.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15639
574. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:43 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 572. Pcroton:


Morning, Keep. Yeah I can understand the sentiment. After I tasted 70F for the third time in the past 4 weeks I am ready for the end.

But true to my nature if warnings suddenly went up for two feet of snow on Monday I'd be happy for it.






Snows have gotten quite heavy on Radar from Maine to Cape Cod. Obviously much stronger than expected - it could offset the missed totals during the early part of the storm.




This hasn't seemed to cause NWS to adjust totals however. You'd think Mass will get a bit more from the renewed radar presentation.













Meanwhile my winds are easily gusting 40-50mph again here in central NJ. Kept me up a lot last night.

we reach a high of 50 on tuseday
then yesterday temp falling all day with heavy snow strong winds

got almost about 20cm in my location
and the wind was drifting it up in the back of the building In 2 foot drifts

nightmare to say the least

now bright sunshine with wind chills of - 18f till later this afternoon then rising temps forecast calls for 45 by tomorrow afternoon with showers crazy weather

welcome to the 2014 roller coaster ride
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
573. Pcroton
1:31 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Mount Holly with a renewed interest in Monday.

Central NJ:



Sunday night
mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow.
Lows in the lower 20s.

Monday
mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs
in the mid 30s.

Monday night
mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the
evening...Then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the lower
20s. Chance of snow 40 percent.



==

while another coastal storm may develop off the
southeast coast and move near the mid atlantic region sunday night
into monday.

==

the next system of interest begins to develop along the frontal
boundary that just draped through the region. There is still a lot
of uncertainty with this system as the mid-level pattern doesn`t
provide a good consensus amongst the mid-range guidance. Leaned
heavily on the wpc guidance at this point bringing chance pops into
the region late sunday night into monday. Thermal profiles at this
point would indicate widespread snow across the northern half of the
cwa with a bit more mixing across the south before changing over. Still
plenty of time to figure out how this system will track.

Precipitation chances diminish as we move into monday night and
tuesday as the aforementioned storm moves to our northeast and high
pressure briefly builds across the area. Then models diverge with
what to do with the next potential system. For tuesday night into
wednesday, the gfs brings a low across southeastern canada, while
the ecmwf brings a low right over our area. With the spread and
uncertainty, we followed closely to wpc which is somewhere in
between and introduces chance pops across the area around wednesday.


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Todays Updates begin post 559

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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
572. Pcroton
1:30 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 570. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no more snow

I am done with it


morning p


Morning, Keep. Yeah I can understand the sentiment. After I tasted 70F for the third time in the past 4 weeks I am ready for the end.

But true to my nature if warnings suddenly went up for two feet of snow on Monday I'd be happy for it.



Quoting 571. tlawson48:
Snowing quite hard in Kittery right now. We picked up about an inch in the last hour, more than fell in the previous 24 hours combined!

Morning avanlanche report from the east side of Mount Washington confirmed the boundary layer temps. Tuckerman Ravine got an 18 inch "sandwich": 6 inches dry, then 6 inches wet, then 6 inches dry (analysis fromm the morning snow pit).

Regardless, northen New England is in for at least three more weeks of winter, forecast lows up in the mountains are for -10F or colder tonight.



Snows have gotten quite heavy on Radar from Maine to Cape Cod. Obviously much stronger than expected - it could offset the missed totals during the early part of the storm.




This hasn't seemed to cause NWS to adjust totals however. You'd think Mass will get a bit more from the renewed radar presentation.













Meanwhile my winds are easily gusting 40-50mph again here in central NJ. Kept me up a lot last night.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
571. tlawson48
12:56 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Snowing quite hard in Kittery right now. We picked up about an inch in the last hour, more than fell in the previous 24 hours combined!

Morning avanlanche report from the east side of Mount Washington confirmed the boundary layer temps. Tuckerman Ravine got an 18 inch "sandwich": 6 inches dry, then 6 inches wet, then 6 inches dry (analysis fromm the morning snow pit).

Regardless, northen New England is in for at least three more weeks of winter, forecast lows up in the mountains are for -10F or colder tonight.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 539
570. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:33 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
no more snow

I am done with it


morning p
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
569. Pcroton
12:26 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
When we see the models shape up a little more then a new blog entry will be posted. Maybe tomorrow morning at the earliest. No sense in trying to make any sense of the present guidance. It is quite clear no professional organization is attempting to do so.




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Updates begin Post 559

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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
568. Pcroton
12:25 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
The HPC speaks on next week's system. Sounds very complicated and another modeling nightmare coming up. At this range it pays to stay away from putting any faith into the models in any way shape or form.



Extended forecast discussion
nws weather prediction center college park md
215 am edt thu mar 13 2014

valid 12z sun mar 16 2014 - 12z thu mar 20 2014

...Overview...

A split-flow ridge/trough pattern will lead off the medium range
period and transition toward increased troughing in the pac nw and
eventually the interior west. The east will continue to be stuck
in troughing as we set out sights on spring... Equinox on thu mar
20... But will generally still feel like winter.

...Guidance evaluation and model preferences...

The pattern evolution is rather complicated... With subtle shifts
in the forecast yielding much different results downstream. The
stability of the ensemble means first... And the deterministic
models second... Have proven their worth over the past week. Given
the excessive noise in the day 5-7 time frame... Again have
limited confidence beyond general ideas. The ecens mean continues
to show the best continuity... Which hopefully--and
typically--translates into the best verification later on.

Sun/mon-d3-4 will feature a digging upper low over w tx as ridging
reaches near its peak over california. The models have basically
converged on taking the southern portion of this energy s/ssw
through old mexico toward 20n--no easy feat-- while the northern
portion progresses through the southeast and likely phases
somewhat with additional northern stream energy diving
southeastward out of sw canada. The gfs/gefs have begrudgingly
trended toward a deeper and more developed system closer to the
coast whereas the ecmwf/canadian and now ukmet have been more
consistently closer to the coast for a few runs... Though with
much different forecasts upstream. Regardless... Followed the
ecmwf-led cluster with support from the ecens mean as the low
scoots well out to sea by tue/d5. Cannot speculate as to the
potential forthcoming trends /typically northwestward with east
coast systems/ as there has been no consistent trend in the
guidance this winter from days 3-4 onward.

Farther east... Remains of the once northern portion of the sharp
trough in the pacific should cruise through the plains and midwest
but the ecmwf has varied on speed while the gfs varied on
latitude... With the ec mean again a most reasonable compromise.


...Sensible weather highlights...

In the east... Exiting system through the southeast may impact the
mid-atlantic or even up to southern new england with rain to the
south and snow to the north... Assuming the precip makes it far
enough north into the marginally cold air. Temperatures should be
cold nonetheless /about 10-20f below climo/ as the low departs.
The west should remain near to above climo with temperatures into
the mid-90s along the az/ca border early in the period thanks to
ridging overhead.

Second half of the period should see a moderation in the east with
a return to near normal temperatures ahead of the next northern
stream system. The pac nw into the interior should be more active
as the closed low approaches ca/or... Perhaps weakening into an
open wave. This should bring at least some precip and wind to
ca/nv ahead of the next system to the nw on its heels.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
567. Pcroton
12:22 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Here's the GFS and NAM: 1AM Thursday thru 1AM Friday









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Updates begin Post 559

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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
566. Pcroton
12:18 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Here are some short range guidance. Note the time stamps on each in red.







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Updates begin Post 559

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Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
565. Pcroton
12:10 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Quoting 555. tlawson48:
Well, it was the storm that wasn't for Southern Maine. Rained until well after midnight. As of 6 am the storm is over and we got no sleet, no freezing rain and about 1" of snow. The rain/snow line pushed north almost to Mount Washington yesterday evening. That meant that a lot of places that were forecast to get 18 to 24 inches ended up with about 6 to 8.



Those temperature boundaries we looked at last evening were just so stubbornly tied to the stacked low centers. There was no sweeping cool down with the storm as was expected. Those thermal boundaries never budged and moved with the storm itself. Instead of us seeing a freezing line sweep rapidly through the precip shield it moved with it.

Once we saw that going on last night it was fairly clear there'd be busts along the southern edge of the higher forecast totals.

Being March and having temps of 60-70 degrees across the upper middle atlantic you can't get too upset at forecasting in this instance. The model guidance was atrocious right until the end however. Then when it did shift the rain/snow lines north the HPC never adjusted to that and therefore the NWS never did either and those southern zones faulted.

Big picture isn't bad though looking at the totals and the maps.

This is what we go through here every storm from Westchester county NY, southern CT down south into NJ. Every storm we get these problems. It's why you see us rant so often on models and forecasting because it is EVERY storm where one model run we're creamed and the other we're getting nothing - and then the next run creams us again - and our forecasts swing wildly every six hours trying to keep up.

It's beyond frustrating and annoying.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7265
564. Pcroton
12:06 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
NWS Map of snowfall accumulations.



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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.