Severe Ice and Snow Storm Central Plains to Middle Atlantic

By: Pcroton , 11:57 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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March 3

The winter storm continues to affect the central and southern middle atlantic states this morning.

Updates being on Post #844








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Evening Update 3/2 9PM


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Updates Begin on Post #783
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Good Evening. The southern trends of forecasting continue. A moderate snowfall event begins in central NJ and becomes heavier as you head south. Jackpot regions appear to be situated in northern Virginia and Maryland.

A significant ice and snow threat continues for the central and southern plains through the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions into the Middle Atlantic states.


Monday's HPC Hazards:





Maximum Reasonable Accumulation Potentials:






====================================
Blog Opening 2/26

A long duration winter weather event is in store for the Eastern United States spanning from the south central plains into the upper middle atlantic states.

A strong storm system north of Hawaii will head into the California coast line Friday into Saturday.








The system will head into the south central plains and send multiple areas of low pressure up a developing thermal gradient.




The tightly packed nature of the large thermal gradient leads to a lot of uncertainty down stream along the East coast in terms of PType and PType duration. A slight shift in storm track would result in dramatic changes for many locations. The extremely tight nature of this large thermal gradient will make fine details a near impossibility for many of us until the final day prior to the onset of the event.


Each low that moves along the stationary frontal system will first push some warm air into the border regions ahead of it and then pull cold air in behind as it exits.



This will cause many border regions to experience a roller coaster of PType from snow to mix to rain to mix to snow to mix to rain to mix to snow.

Each successive wave of low pressure should pull the frontal boundary further south as the event moves forward thus giving increasing chances of frozen precip in the border zones.

The current 12Z GFS paints what would be considered a perfect scenario at the 500mb pattern for the Philly to New York City corridor to receive a signifcant snowfall event. In order for the present 12Z GFS or the 0Z Euro model of 2/26 to pan out the following disturbances must be found in these locations shown below.




Then we would see the following transpire at the 500mb level.





Which would lead to near perfection in storm formation and track which could result in something of this nature. The following map is not a forecast but is a good illustration of this storm system's potential if all comes together correctly.





The timing of the sub-tropical and polar disturbances will be cruicial in what transpires along the eastern seaboard.





Todays 0Z and 12Z European Model runs show what might occur given an earlier or later phasing of the two streams. The following maps are not forecasts but can be used to illustrate the storm potential.





Regardless of exactly how the system phases and where the thermal boundary lines up this appears to be a significant long duration event for the region as illustrated by the 12Z GFS run. Models have been showing a system that will be lasting from 48 hours to as long as 60 hours.





Above all remember the models do not drive the weather and any personal emotion should not play into which model you prefer. Do not get attached to any one model run NOR any NEWEST model run until we draw closer to the event. At this far out the newest run doesn't automatically succeed the previous - these runs are initializing off of poor data and will continue to spit out differing solutions. Use them as a loose guide.

At this point we know a large long duration storm event with varied high impact weather will be affecting the region Sunday through Tuesday. Who gets what, when, and for how long is still yet unknown.

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873. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:49 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
872. cooldogs13
1:15 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
We need another surge north to north east very soon other wise the precip is just going to keep collapsing
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
871. terstorm
12:48 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
We gotta learn to look at all the features in our models, not just our storm.

Someone on Friday (I forget who) posted that they were curious as to why the snow being forecast in the GFS wasn't being suppressed to the south because of the high over Montana and part of Canada and the deep and dry Arctic air. Modeling had that on Friday. Then when the models responded and began suppressing the snow to the south, most of us chose to ignore them.

I think modeling more or less did fine. Human beings did not for this bust. This is a bust for people, not necessarily for models.
Member Since: October 11, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
870. Pcroton
12:41 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 868. PhillySnow:
Also I just noticed our temp dropped 4 degrees. Colder, drier air coming in? That can't be good.


Temps are crashing. Won't change what is or isn't coming though. This is about lift and as long as you have it - it will snow. Certainly collapsing over central NJ though.


Tomorrow Morning Lows





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
869. doom22015
12:34 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Good morning all!

It's snowing and beautiful here in Burke VA, WSW of DC.
Temp was 23F at 7am, now down to 22F, so the arctic front is certainly here. With yesterday's temps, I would not have believed it.

Barometer was 29.86 all last evening, but it rose overnight, now to 29.97 -- not what I expected.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
868. PhillySnow
12:29 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Also I just noticed our temp dropped 4 degrees. Colder, drier air coming in? That can't be good.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
867. PhillySnow
12:26 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Snow has picked up here. Still tiny flakes, but there's a lot more of them. It'll be interesting to see how long this continues.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
866. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:14 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
its cold in T.O. this morning

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 7:00 AM EST Monday 3 March 2014
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:30.4 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:-2.9°F
Dewpoint:-11.9°F
Humidity:65%
Wind:NNW 12 mph
Wind Chill: -21
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
865. cooldogs13
12:13 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Hopefully the rap is right and not the hrrr if that is right we will be on the low end of our 3-6 and if the rap is right we will be on the high end of our 3-6... Whatever My work has a delayed opening till 9:30 don't know what the benefit of that is it actually looks as tho the worst would be from about now till then right when everyone is driving into work but it does also say call back before you leave. Sucks they need to have a delayed opening at like 11 then we would be in good shape
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
864. Pcroton
12:13 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 862. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
to me anyway it looks as if its slowly drifting south while compacting and getting more intense


Thermal gradient at work I believe.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
863. Pcroton
12:13 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Yeah, active two weeks still coming. GFS shows a coastal miss on Wednesday





A closer coastal storm on Friday




An arctic front that develops a low on Sunday




And a clipper system on the following Tuesday

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
862. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:10 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 860. Pcroton:



Good Morning.


That image shows nicely what is going on.

Wonder if that snow hole to my north digs in - versus if the SW surges continue.

to me anyway it looks as if its slowly drifting south while compacting and getting more intense
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
861. Pcroton
12:09 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 856. tlawson48:
Fourth month of below zero temps achieved Saturday morning. We better not have five... :)



LOL!!!


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
860. Pcroton
12:09 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 857. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


morning p



Good Morning.


That image shows nicely what is going on.

Wonder if that snow hole to my north digs in - versus if the SW surges continue.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
859. Pcroton
12:08 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 854. cooldogs13:
Yea from the rap model guidance it actually looks like our heaviet snows are around 8-10am no? As those dark green bands surge up the coast


Here's the HRRR hourly snowfall rates for 9am, 11am, 1pm.

RAP holds us on longer than HRRR guidance. This is the 4am HRRR run.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
858. cooldogs13
12:07 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
P I agree we are seeing a surge right now as we speak actually snow much harder and not those fine granulals . Hopefully it just lasts because it is cold about 21 degrees here and dropping your right which means ratios are crazy high .. I could still see brick getting close to that 6" mark
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
857. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:06 PM GMT on March 03, 2014


morning p
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
856. tlawson48
12:04 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Fourth month of below zero temps achieved Saturday morning. We better not have five... :)
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 536
855. Pcroton
12:03 PM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 852. cooldogs13:
It still looks like central and southern no will hold on for a few more hours to snow than I thought till about 2pm no? Check out the latest rap posted by Steve

Link


That's pretty funny I just went to the RAP after I did the Sref and Hrrr and I saw that.

Not sure if correct but we did see these little bumps and surges yesterday along the line - which kept duping me into thinking the storm would come north - only to see them wane.

Now we can see the result of that process in our favor. Line erodes on back side on hour, resurgence commences the next... and the pattern continues.

What has happened here is the thermal gradient has finally settled on it's location. So the storm is "hung up" in a sense on that - but moreso the LIFT is "hung up" in place.

As long as these dynamics are "stalled" if you will then we will keep getting precip.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
854. cooldogs13
11:57 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Yea from the rap model guidance it actually looks like our heaviet snows are around 8-10am no? As those dark green bands surge up the coast
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
853. Pcroton
11:47 AM GMT on March 03, 2014



With the high ratios we have this will still make out well for a moderate snowfall from Philly to central NJ.

With around 0.3" liquid and 20:1 or higher ratios we could see 6" maximums....if the model is correct of course and well, with this storm...nothing needs to be said on that note.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
852. cooldogs13
11:46 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
It still looks like central and southern no will hold on for a few more hours to snow than I thought till about 2pm no? Check out the latest rap posted by Steve

Link
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
851. Pcroton
11:45 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
RAP keeps sending enhancing surges of energy through the region which keeps back building the line at times. So the line erodes NW to SE and then a new slug rides on from SW to NE on the back side and reinforces it.

RAP Simulated Reflectivity - 4AM Model Run

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
850. tlawson48
11:41 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
If anyone had predicted a high of this magnitude and extreme cold reaching this far south just two to three weeks ago, they would have been laughed at. This type of setup would not be unreasonable in January and probably would have not garnered anywhere near as much comment. To have it happen in March though, I think a lot of people simply couldn't fathom such a southern storm track because it just doesn't happen frequently enough to have good memories of such an event.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 536
849. Pcroton
11:40 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 847. PhillySnow:
Good morning, P! The radar shows us solidly in snow, but it's so fine as to be less than flurries. Does it show any signs of picking up around here or will people be downgrading us yet again?


NWS seems to have you in 2-4. I guess that's a good range. You're still getting some SW enhancement flow so you may hold on for a few more hours.


This is the fifth time I've had snow and temps in the teens.

Most any other year you wouldn't even expect one - sans snow showers with an arctic front - using the cliche "it's too cold to snow" which is generally speak for the storm is suppressed by the cold northern stream.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
848. Pcroton
11:36 AM GMT on March 03, 2014







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
847. PhillySnow
11:33 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Good morning, P! The radar shows us solidly in snow, but it's so fine as to be less than flurries. Does it show any signs of picking up around here or will people be downgrading us yet again?
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
846. Pcroton
11:28 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
3 to 5 inches, Philly, but the system is on the move - and we have sinking air on the northern/western sides of the band of snow now.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
845. PhillySnow
11:26 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Good morning! 17F here and only a very light snow falling. A very, very light snow. Haven't been out to measure yet; looks like about an inch so far. Radar and forecasts indicate we'll have more snow until around noon, which would be great. I think we're going to struggle to get to 3 inches, and probably won't reach the 6 that's still forecast by some. I'm hoping I'm wrong about that!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
844. Pcroton
11:25 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Good Morning.

Yeah I kept seeing something I liked and wanted to keep discussing each time I went to log off.

2" here, 15F. Maybe we make 3... The radar sheild is eroding to our north.

Looking at the storm presentation there's a particular CMC run that nailed this from several days ago - the very narrow character of the precip banding.

The problems with the models were they shot all north and then all south. The reason I never wanted to jump on the south ones were because whenever models flip like that it's best to wait for more support. Even when they had support the big problem I had with them was they still weren't modeling the QPF field properly.

Even thought they had the storm in the same general location they were either very dry or pretty wet so to me that said they were still mis-handling the environment. I can assume that other forecasters felt the same way and were right to do so.

I didn't want to model chase north when the Euro was hitting northern NY with the storm. I didn't want to chase Climotology and analogs which said no way would a storm hit central and southern NJ/PA - it had to be north. Then the southern flip just went against too many factors we saw playing out and that is why I was stubborn to hold off. For those of you that followed along you saw the graphics I posted and it seemed logical enough to disregard the models. I still felt after all that time the southern most point the heavy swath would go would be the PA/MD line through the AC EXPY.


It happens. On to the next storm later today.



Here's our updates for this morning as the storm continues to hit the region hard.

























Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
843. evsnds
10:44 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
I must have missed it when P said for the 4th or 5th time that he said he was done for the night.

Usually he's awake around this time, especially with a system like this literally knocking on our door.
Member Since: January 21, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
842. evsnds
10:03 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Temps trending between 3-5degrees cooler than guidance suggested in RVA. Precipitation expected to start in the next hour or so. If temps continue to drop and stay below guidance, we will see less sleet and more snow. More totals for the RVA region.

Listening to local news now, two of the 3 major school districts have just announced they are closing. I think they're seeing a higher totals than NWS are predicting, but that's just a gut feeling.
Member Since: January 21, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
841. originalLT
7:07 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Flurries started here at 2am, Stamford CT. 25F
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7444
840. wxgeek723
6:59 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Steady snow. Coating so far.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3479
839. goofyrider
6:58 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Temps finally getting below 32 at GS here. Nothing to see here.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2733
838. originalLT
6:53 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Late look at the radar, at 1:50am, there is a ENE component to the precipitation movement, I have virga over me (Stamford CT) and over NYC and Westchester So maybe I'll get my inch or two after all.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7444
837. noreasterrrrr
4:16 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Absolutely...no matter what, once again the pro mets did not have an edge or come close to your forecasting..this battle no one wins..we only learn more that data modeling sucks and doesnt give us much to wirk with. Makes me wonder what will happen when one day Sandy's big brother comes to town, and models dont have what it takes to give public enough notice to be prepared. Now that's a shame....but yea P ur the man..uve been great all winter and we are all lucky to have you on our side..nite all
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
836. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:09 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 833. Pcroton:
thanks vdb

nice map wash.

enjoy folks!

tablet typing is the death of me


you did a gret job with the storm P... no matter what happened
you deserve a pay for this
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
835. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:09 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 828. washingtonian115:

Washi.. watch out the heaviest snow is pulling south of you
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
834. noreasterrrrr
4:08 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Nite
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
833. Pcroton
4:07 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
thanks vdb

nice map wash.

enjoy folks!

tablet typing is the death of me
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
832. Pcroton
4:06 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
thx
i do see the north bulge pop in pa tho as u said
we will see what comes of it
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
831. noreasterrrrr
4:04 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
In the moment get caught up and forget the most important thing..and u hit the nail right on the head P. On to the next..
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
830. noreasterrrrr
4:03 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
So sad....it truly is.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
829. vdb0422
4:02 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Quoting 824. Pcroton:
another thing was they were steady for days and in agreement
then went haywire thursday i think
so they were dismissed for poor sampling
also never jump on a big model shift after long similarity u will bust frequent doing that

for the record NWS to HPC to good forecasters and tv guys suffer thru this one same mistakes made

only people immune are those who only spoke on the storm late today and did not follow along all these days with all the solutions

no big deal
Okay. Pcroton you did a great job with the storm. I mean nobody bats 100% but I appreciate you spending time and giving daily updates.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
828. washingtonian115
3:59 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
827. Pcroton
3:59 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
nah i think it is a wrap noreasterrr

will see in the am

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
826. Pcroton
3:58 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
ththee other reason ppl held off on model trust is the storm was off cali until late last night
so thought was repeat south solutions were born on same poor sampling
because storm was still off coast outside data network
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
825. noreasterrrrr
3:57 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
P notice how when it gets over the Mountains it gets stronger and tries to be solid again..its a 1-2 for me but I think u just may get a 6 still..nws is guessing..so am I..but its anyone's guess now and its possible.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
824. Pcroton
3:56 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
another thing was they were steady for days and in agreement
then went haywire thursday i think
so they were dismissed for poor sampling
also never jump on a big model shift after long similarity u will bust frequent doing that

for the record NWS to HPC to good forecasters and tv guys suffer thru this one same mistakes made

only people immune are those who only spoke on the storm late today and did not follow along all these days with all the solutions

no big deal
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248
823. Pcroton
3:51 AM GMT on March 03, 2014
hi trp
on tablet now
models were all over far north far south far wet far dry
when they went south they lept
being unreliable and against climo most saw it unreasonable to chase them until proven
many myself included waited too long
i had my reasons they did not pan out
on to the next

yes very cold in storm wake
i had brought it up some time ago but focused on this event instead
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7248

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.