Light Snow Event, Return of Cold, Stormy open to March

By: Pcroton , 10:25 AM GMT on February 24, 2014

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2/26

Updates begin post #93.

Here is the storm system we will be tracking for the Sunday-Tuesday event.



===================================

2/25 Afternoon

Continuing to track our weak Wednesday morning system. Keeping an eye on the March 3-4 time frame.

Updates begin Post #35.

HPC Hazards Map for Wednesday 2/26:



===============================================

2/25 Morning

Our Wednesday storm has quickly degenerated into a snow shower event.

Updates on Post #24






=====================================

Spring time is near but it won't come easy. A Light snow event will begin late Tuesday night lasting into Wednesday Morning for the central and upper middle Atlantic region, Cape Cod, and Eastern Maine.






The 500mb pattern does not support a more significant event. A broad trough has a strong west to east flow through the region. As a result the storm will slide off the coastline limiting our QPF potential.











All model guidance is in agreement here that the connection between the polar and sub tropical energy will be limited.













Snowfall potential will be limited. I would probably follow the GFS here but I do like to show all guidance. There could still be minor tweaks as we near the event but at worst this would raise some moderate snowfall potential along the NJ/DE coasts. There will be no large surprises.








A renewed hit of the polar vortex for the fifth time this season will bring deep winter cold back into the region for a substantial period of time. The further we go ahead the more relaxed this pattern becomes.












Cold air sticks around through at least the first 10 days of March.
















Long range model guidance has bounced around a large storm in the March 3-5 time frame. This could be our final significant snowfall threat to the big cities.











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106. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:57 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
105. Pcroton
6:57 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 103. VR46L:


Yep and they were not carrying snow either , Just Hurricane Force wind gusts and lots of rain !


Ridiculous cycle here... these two images look near identical but they are not. Just a repeating cycle...



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 6962
104. Pcroton
6:54 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
And this is why hype and models are irrelevant at 4 days or more out.

12Z Euro goes back north/west and goes through twice as fast.






It's rather pointless to look for details in these things until at least Friday if not Saturday.

The storm is currently north of Hawaii. When it is actually in California is when we can begin to wonder about details. Until then we're just guessing.

Here's the 12Z GFS with the storm in California and the polar disturbance to it's north... at 90 HOURS, 6Z Sunday:




If those two pieces of energy are not right there exactly at 90 hours then the whole rest of the run is garbage.

That's just the way it works.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 6962
103. VR46L
6:20 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 98. Pcroton:


Yeah really. It's an atrocity, really! But yet VR has gotten hammered by our exiting storms all winter long.


Well, CMC like the GFS has the same thing going.











Pretty impressive at 4 days out. Will be important if it continues into 3 days and 2 days out.


Yep and they were not carrying snow either , Just Hurricane Force wind gusts and lots of rain !
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102. Roirdan
6:13 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Well... Looks like this was the perfect timing for me to come back from Florida. Crossing fingers for a nice event.
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101. Pcroton
5:59 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
This is the storm that will march right through the Pacific into California and across the country.





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100. Pcroton
5:54 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 99. zotty:


I mean he may be right, but seriously? Well, I guess he is selling newspapers, right?

LT's final line of snow in White Plains now, a nice burst... still not enough to cover the old snowbanks though. It looks like Soviet Russia out there...


Yeah like I said I'd like to hold off on hype but that's Joe B - it's what he does. He's been pretty good this winter.


Henry M released a nicer Euro snow map through the event:



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 6962
99. zotty
5:49 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 96. Pcroton:
Of course it is...

===

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 51m

Raging Weatherbull video discusses why GFS, as impressive as it is, is likely underdone on Major ne snow later next week n/w of big cities

===




I mean he may be right, but seriously? Well, I guess he is selling newspapers, right?

LT's final line of snow in White Plains now, a nice burst... still not enough to cover the old snowbanks though. It looks like Soviet Russia out there...
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98. Pcroton
5:45 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 97. doom22015:


Careful, I don't think attitudes like that are welcome on this snow-lover's blog 8-)


Yeah really. It's an atrocity, really! But yet VR has gotten hammered by our exiting storms all winter long.


Well, CMC like the GFS has the same thing going.











Pretty impressive at 4 days out. Will be important if it continues into 3 days and 2 days out.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 6962
97. doom22015
5:38 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 81. VR46L:
P re post 79 , I can't wait for this winter to finish , Really getting fed up of it . I dream of a nice Crisp Frosty morning ....Instead of these horrible storms .



Careful, I don't think attitudes like that are welcome on this snow-lover's blog 8-)
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96. Pcroton
5:38 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Of course it is...

===

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 51m

Raging Weatherbull video discusses why GFS, as impressive as it is, is likely underdone on Major ne snow later next week n/w of big cities

===


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 6962
95. Pcroton
5:34 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 82. StormTrackerScott:
While in FL we've had a non Winter.

Here are the highs and lows so far in February for Orlando.




That's just too warm. We'll be posting those temps around here soon enough. I enjoy my seasons.

Quoting 90. mgill91302:
Not so much of a non event here at work in Somerset nj ...got 2" ...heavy snow from 10 to 11am...stopped abruptly and got sunny immediately. Roads got covered and slick quickly ...watched a couple people wipe out in front of work, roads clearing quickly tho.


A couple of people did do well with some of these bursts. I just got a quick coating from the on and off bursts.

Quoting 89. aquak9:
I'd be done gone absolutely ape$hit
if I had to live with ya'lls weather



Variety is good. I've lived in Florida and the absence of seasons got to me.

Quoting 91. originalLT:
Looks like one more thin line of snow coming thru my area(Sw CT.) and Westchester then that's about it.


Yep just some nusiance bursts here and there. Will probably see more of this some time tomorrow, friday, and saturday as several fronts push through the region.

Quoting 84. NYBizBee:
Media jumping all over this! I mean they are not saying 2 feet but are on idea of major snow is poss.

P- if this pans out, it will be crazy how many reporting sites will top, all time snow records.


New York and Philly over 57" for the year according to the news. Of course the burbs have more. Us here in central NJ I have measured 70" on the season thanks to a couple of those bullseyed clippers. I'm sure my measuring technique isn't perfect but what can you do there...no big deal.

The media will start talking but they won't sound the alarms until Friday I think.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 6962
94. Pcroton
5:27 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 92. cooldogs13:
Has any1 seen the 12z gfs run it looks colder than past runs. No? And the qpf amounts that run from Philly to NYC are amazing for sun-Tues I wish this would verify this would be a massive multi day snow storm from Philly to NYC please winter if u really want to go out with a bang this is the way to do it



Yeah it's a pretty intense long duration event. 60 hours plus.












Quoting 83. zotty:


That map is going to get people crazy again...



Not as much as this one and todays Euro/CMC if Joe B releases them. I hope he does.


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93. Pcroton
5:18 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Afternoon. Bursts of snow here. Coating on the ground but wet roads.

Yeah this storm is in the Day 4-6 range and while it could be a significant event I think as always it's better to relax on the hype. I like looking at all the model runs and maps of course but I wouldn't be too confident of the outcome here until Friday at the earliest.

With such a large thermal gradient packed into a tight area and such an overall narrow width of the band of precipitation a shift 50 to 100 miles will drastically alter any presently expected weather for many people.

It looks promising, the pieces are there, and the storm has 2 foot potential. However where exactly is the unanswered question. Me here in central NJ for an example we could see a back and forth of rain and mix amount to just several inches of crap. We could see a primarily snow and sleet event and be talking 12-24". We just don't yet know.

Big storm covering multiple days with a variety of high impact weather is coming. No need to start drawing lines on a map even though this one looks more promising than a number of recent events.

We're still four to six days away....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 6962
92. cooldogs13
5:13 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Has any1 seen the 12z gfs run it looks colder than past runs. No? And the qpf amounts that run from Philly to NYC are amazing for sun-Tues I wish this would verify this would be a massive multi day snow storm from Philly to NYC please winter if u really want to go out with a bang this is the way to do it
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91. originalLT
5:06 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Looks like one more thin line of snow coming thru my area(Sw CT.) and Westchester then that's about it.
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90. mgill91302
4:57 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Not so much of a non event here at work in Somerset nj ...got 2" ...heavy snow from 10 to 11am...stopped abruptly and got sunny immediately. Roads got covered and slick quickly ...watched a couple people wipe out in front of work, roads clearing quickly tho.
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89. aquak9
3:29 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
I'd be done gone absolutely ape$hit
if I had to live with ya'lls weather

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88. originalLT
3:28 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Partial clearing line driving towards me from NW to SE.
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87. originalLT
3:25 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Yeah, a "finger" of snow developed to my West and is moving thru now, maybe another 45Mins. to go. We have about 1/4 to 1/2" of snow. Getting lighter now. But a nice little surprise, after it looked like we up here in Sw CT. and Westchester would get almost nothing.
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86. zotty
2:42 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Whoops- now it is snowing pretty hard in downtown White Plains, NY. It is sticking everywhere. I hope we get enough to put a fresh coat on the giant grey snow banks everywhere...

Also, Steve DiMartino's email this morning sounds pretty optimistic about a long duration snow event this weekend and early next week. (I think I can hear Noreasterrrrrrrrr panting. Maybe Noreasterrrrrrr and HeavySnow should get together sometime and have an igloo contest or something.)
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85. zotty
2:32 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
By the way- light snow falling in downtown White Plains, NY
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84. NYBizBee
2:30 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Media jumping all over this! I mean they are not saying 2 feet but are on idea of major snow is poss.

P- if this pans out, it will be crazy how many reporting sites will top, all time snow records.
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83. zotty
2:26 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 80. Pcroton:




That map is going to get people crazy again...
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82. StormTrackerScott
2:06 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
While in FL we've had a non Winter.

Here are the highs and lows so far in February for Orlando.

Feb. 1 80 59
Feb. 2 85 65
Feb. 3 86 62
Feb. 4 87 66
Feb. 5 86 67
Feb. 6 72 51
Feb. 7 60 51
Feb. 8 61 56
Feb. 9 74 53
Feb. 10 76 51
Feb. 11 82 52
Feb. 12 80 60
Feb. 13 64 45
Feb. 14 66 37
Feb. 15 72 47
Feb. 16 72 39
Feb. 17 77 42
Feb. 18 82 48
Feb. 19 83 55
Feb. 20 86 55
Feb. 21 83 65
Feb. 22 79 64
Feb. 23 87 64
Feb. 24 77 64
Feb. 25 81 59
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81. VR46L
1:54 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
P re post 79 , I can't wait for this winter to finish , Really getting fed up of it . I dream of a nice Crisp Frosty morning ....Instead of these horrible storms .

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80. Pcroton
1:49 PM GMT on February 26, 2014


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79. Pcroton
1:44 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 77. cooldogs13:
P yes we're going to be in the battleground again what's nice about this one is it looks like if your on the same latitude line in central jersey that all that matters dosent seem like closer to the coast will be that much warmer with this even which is good for us here in brick because were central jersey I guess only a stones throw away from 195 so this will be interesting for sure I wonder if there will be a huge difference between here and my summer home in ocean grove

Brick house 7 miles south of 195
Ocean grove house- 2 miles north of 195

Should be veryyyyy interesting I'm exited to watch as the days go on


It does appear we won't be seeing much marine influence from this setup. With each low passage the arctic front will sag further south meaning the next low comes in further south. So by the end of the event everyone could be seeing snow as a result.



...Another north atlantic beast out there today.











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78. noreasterrrrr
12:45 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
I WILL TAKE THIS COMPLETE MISS TODAY AND BE PATIENT AS OLD MAN WINTER WILL TRY TO MAKE UP FOR IT AND MORE COME SUNDAY NIGHT..
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77. cooldogs13
12:39 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
P yes we're going to be in the battleground again what's nice about this one is it looks like if your on the same latitude line in central jersey that all that matters dosent seem like closer to the coast will be that much warmer with this even which is good for us here in brick because were central jersey I guess only a stones throw away from 195 so this will be interesting for sure I wonder if there will be a huge difference between here and my summer home in ocean grove

Brick house 7 miles south of 195
Ocean grove house- 2 miles north of 195

Should be veryyyyy interesting I'm exited to watch as the days go on
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76. Pcroton
12:30 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 74. originalLT:
Seems the bulk of this morning's snow is sliding by , from West to East, South of NYC.


Looks like a complete miss.

I have light snow here but it's not impressive by any means.

Five days ago this storm was modeled to be a 6-12" threat.

Didn't quite work out like that....
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75. Pcroton
12:29 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
The one thing I am convinced of is a large long duration storm event is coming.

What I am not yet convinced of is the rain/snow PType lines and duration of each. NJ is once again the primary battle ground for this.

Whoever finds themselves on the favorable side of the front are going to be seeing totals in the 1 to 2 foot range. Battle zones will see a lot of mixing to snow to mixing to snow type situations as each new low rides along the front and first pushes a bit of a warm surge into the area and then pulls cold air in behind it as it passes by.

If you end up in these mix zones who can say what you get... half a foot of snow, hours of sleet, rain, back to sleet, another 4 inches of snow, back to sleet then rain (you know, each low passage) and rinse and repeat.

For zones north of any mixing it's going to be heavy bursts of snow with each low passage and then light to moderate snow inbetween.

Further south it will be rain to mixing back to rain to mix then snow...back to mix and then to all snow - as each new low looks like it will pull the front just a bit further south each time.

I think this is very promising for Philly to NYC and points north of I195 in central NJ....but it's too early to start calling it. Too much going on here at this distance - as always. Friday is the day to start getting confident.

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74. originalLT
12:29 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Seems the bulk of this morning's snow is sliding by , from West to East, South of NYC.
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73. Pcroton
12:19 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Looks like yet again we have a central/southern NJ battle ground setting up. This doesn't translate to points north being all snow - yet. It looks good but it is just too early for that. Let's not jump the gun and start putting 20" of snow into Manhattan quite yet and then show up the day of the storm and find a mix going on.

=======================================

Then sunday into monday the uncertainty lies in which part of our
cwa will be impacted the most. Very few scenarios and ensemble
solutions are indicating at this point that the waves on the front
will go quietly into the night. If last night`s op runs gave us
the warmest solutions (although their ensemble means were colder), the
last two sounding runs have trended colder. We have a blocking
vortex over eastern canada along with enough arctic air to cause
havoc.

The medium range models tonight pretty much keep our far northern
zones as all snow. The central part of our cwa, as waves of low
pressure roll alone, any rain gets replaced as sleet as a
predominate ptype and then snow. While the southern third of our cwa
does this transition slower. The ecmwf`s and gfs`s ensemble means
are farther south, but their northward sd spread tonight suggests
the op run has some legs. Regardless there are way too many moving
parts to confidently forecast at this time. Please stay tuned.


There are differences as to how quickly this will exit and given a
southward trend on the final caboose low we trended tuesday slightly
more optimistically. No matter the ptype outcome, temperatures will
be well below normal throughout the long term.
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72. Pcroton
12:16 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Here is the big key:

A THIRD COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NEARBY CANADA AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

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71. Pcroton
12:15 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 69. noreasterrrrr:
P good morning...as of now this looks like a mostly snow event and possibly a lot of it as we see it now??


Nope. We're not there yet and won't be there for another two days. Plenty of chances the system sets up further north or south of where it's modeled. Tight thermal gradient means big changes with minor shifts.

While it is certainly promising....look at how tightly packed the gradient is.





We're over 4 days out here. We're only one day removed from the models having the systems tracking just 100 miles north and west of where they have it now. Haven't seen enough to discount that solution entirely.

Current:


It's all about the thermal gradient which will be where the stationary front sets up and then the lows ride along it.

We're not within a window where we can discount a 100 mile shift north or south yet.
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70. Pcroton
12:09 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 66. Climate175:
So the storm pretty much will break winter and bring spring behind it? I noticed that it starts getting warm on the GFS after the storm too .


I believe it is the beginning of the pattern change. The warmth won't come immediately. We're not one and done here. The pattern will be active beyond this storm.

Mid March is a good bet. As far as the big cities are concerned the next round of storms may not produce snow. This coming storm may be the last significant coastal plain snow threat.



March 5


March 7


March 10


March 12


March 14


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69. noreasterrrrr
12:05 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
P good morning...as of now this looks like a mostly snow event and possibly a lot of it as we see it now??
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68. Climate175
12:04 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
See around the 13th.
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67. Pcroton
12:00 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Posting models for this event is a challenge with the low res stuff such as CMC and Euro at this range. I just selected a middle of the storm frame from each.

We're talking a multi-lowed event spanning 48 plus hours.

The GFS frames below are from 126hrs to 168hrs and that doesn't cover the entire thing!







126hr, 144hr, 168hr frames:









These models are pretty well locked in for being 4 to 5 days out from the onset. I am guessing as discussed last night the pattern is fairly straight forward and they are not having trouble with sampling it and guessing. That is why we don't see the storm tracks flopping around all over the place. They're in a narrow corridor.

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66. Climate175
12:00 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 56. Pcroton:
Look at the current temps:




We can already see the thermal gradient is setting up where it wants to be. Oklahoma to Virginia.... Look at the excerpt from Maue's twitter again:



Oklahoma to Virginia....


Looks very promising. Look at your local forecast highs/lows the next few days. Very similiar because we're not going to get much of a shift one way or another due to this strong pattern setting up.

THIS is a clue to me that maybe the models have a good solution early and don't move much over the coming days. The pattern is already here and not looking to shift much - that is the job of the storm once it exits: to break this pattern up.

So the storm pretty much will break winter and bring spring behind it? I noticed that it starts getting warm on the GFS after the storm too .
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65. Pcroton
11:54 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 63. Matlack:


This just screams ice storm for many areas along the stationary front. Never too early to prepare.


It's possible. Could be a lot of sleet as well.


Quoting 64. tlawson48:
We are far enough north of the current thermal boundary that are main impact may just be a stiff flow of wind from Northern Canada. BTW, 0F this morning.


I think you end up with plenty from the system in the end. It's a long duration event with multiple low centers. Something is bound to get far enough north as a result. A lot of overrunning moisture as well.
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64. tlawson48
11:33 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
We are far enough north of the current thermal boundary that are main impact may just be a stiff flow of wind from Northern Canada. BTW, 0F this morning.
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63. Matlack
11:26 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 55. Pcroton:
Don't pay attention to particulars above...just note the pattern setting up. We're talking multiple low centers riding the thermal boundary one right after another. That boundary will set up and won't move much I think during the event. So once it sets up whatever the first low gives you the next 2 or 3 will follow suit. Long duration multi-piece event possible as a result.



This just screams ice storm for many areas along the stationary front. Never too early to prepare.
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62. doom22015
2:16 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 50. cooldogs13:


google it.

Can you get a rainbow during a snow shower or only during a rain shower?
I ask because I felt like today would have been a chance to get one. On my way home from work got into a heavy flurry where it was coming down nice but still sunny


NErrrrrr:
What happens to form a rainbow is a combination of refraction as P says and internal reflection, relying on droplets of liquid water that are roughly spherical. Sunlight enters the droplet, getting bent a bit as it does so -- the key thing being that different colors bend by different angles. Then the light passes within the droplet to the far (back) side of the drop, where it reflects back. It comes back not exactly the way it came, but at an angle, finding its way to your eyes.
So no, it can't happen with snow or hail or graupel, but it definitely could with freezing rain because that does involve drops of liquid.
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61. Pcroton
1:08 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
This cold outbreak starting tomorrow morning is just incredible for this time of year.





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60. Pcroton
12:58 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Quoting 59. LongbranchWX:
P-NASA and the Japan Space Exploration Agency will launch a satellite called the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission on Thursday at 1307 EST from Tanegashima. It will measure all precipitation over 90% of the Earth every 3 hours, making a major contribution to understanding climate.

Have you heard much about this and it is likely to help much with daily forecasting, or is it more a tool for long-term climate study? If it will help with the daily forecasting stuff, how do you think it will change things? My buddy at NASA said this satellite would be a "game changer" for climate study.



Interesting. Very cool. We need more weather satellites. We need one to replace observation stations and balloon launches! Some day....



Well, I chimed back in because NWS has now treated this a little higher than before tonight/tomorrow.












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59. LongbranchWX
12:11 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
P-NASA and the Japan Space Exploration Agency will launch a satellite called the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission on Thursday at 1307 EST from Tanegashima. It will measure all precipitation over 90% of the Earth every 3 hours, making a major contribution to understanding climate.

Have you heard much about this and it is likely to help much with daily forecasting, or is it more a tool for long-term climate study? If it will help with the daily forecasting stuff, how do you think it will change things? My buddy at NASA said this satellite would be a "game changer" for climate study.

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58. noreasterrrrr
12:11 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Nite P
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57. Pcroton
12:09 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
With that I am out for the evening. Have a good night.

Just an inch or so for tomorrow so no need to post a bunch of maps for it.


=========================
Evening Updates begin Post #35
=========================





.
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56. Pcroton
12:08 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Look at the current temps:




We can already see the thermal gradient is setting up where it wants to be. Oklahoma to Virginia.... Look at the excerpt from Maue's twitter again:



Oklahoma to Virginia....


Looks very promising. Look at your local forecast highs/lows the next few days. Very similiar because we're not going to get much of a shift one way or another due to this strong pattern setting up.

THIS is a clue to me that maybe the models have a good solution early and don't move much over the coming days. The pattern is already here and not looking to shift much - that is the job of the storm once it exits: to break this pattern up.

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Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.