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By: Pcroton , 11:37 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Good Afternoon. Models beginning to find a consensus and that is of a weaker storm with a missed connection.
Updates begin on post #128
One more day of warmth before we return to winter.
A light event will move through the region tonight with the heaviest potential focused over Maine. The chance of a more significant snowfall event exists for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Updates begin on Post #112.
Tonight's maximum event potential:
Good Morning. We still have a weak Sunday night system on the models and our Wednesday threat of which the models still are not within a proper window to generate an agreeable solution.
Update begins on Post #83
Ice, Thunder, Snow, Cold, Coastal Threats
Good Morning. We have quite a rollercoaster ride on our hands here. A powerful low pressure area will be heading through the western Great Lakes into Canada will trail a strong cold front leading to strong and potentially severe thunderstorms Friday.
Due to cold air that is strongly locked in we have a freezing rain threat throughout the period across the northern portions of the North East and across southern Canada.
HPC Hazards Maps:
Ice Potential of a glaze or more through Friday Morning:
Ice Potential of a tenth of an inch or more through Sunday Morning:
There is even the chance of some accumulating snowfall between now and Saturday morning.
This is the HPC Maximum Reasonable Accumulation Potential through Sunday Morning. This is not a forecast.
Temperatures will rise significantly on Friday aiding in a strong to severe thunderstorm threat.
SPC Severe Storm Threats:
Winds will be a major issue with the passage of this low pressure area and cold front. I am concerned for areas of Pennsylvania and western New Jersey who experience the major ice storm not too long ago. Many trees that you believe survived the event are in fact heavily damaged and could be coming down in these wind gusts. An overly saturated ground from heavy rains couple with recent warming will increase the vulnerability of many trees.
Flooding is of high concern given the wide ranging snow pack with a high water content. Heavy Rains are on the way. I think the HPC may be selling us a bit short here on QPF in the middle atlantic and north east.
After this storm system pulls through for the fifth and hopefully last time this season the polar vortex will be influencing our weather. The same processes that have led to the continued return of cold air have remained in place. At least one week out of each month this winter we have seen mild temperatures only to return to three more weeks of well below normal temperatures and renewed snowfall threats.
The North Pacific SST Anomaly: This feature had rebuilt itself in recent weeks but has begun to wane yet not before contributing to the reloading of the winter pattern.
The rebuilding western ridge and active sub-tropical jet stream:
The polar vortex returns:
The cold air plunges back in:
Long range temperature anomaly outlooks:
We also have several coastal threats that could become a reality. At this time frame all we worry about is the fact that the models continue to place disturbances in the region within a favorable pattern for development. Finer details won't be available until within a minimum of 72hrs of the onset of any event. Keep in mind the models will flip flop around on how to render this disturbance and it's energy as they try to time the interaction between polar and sub tropical energy. No model run should be taken seriously at this time. Here is the mid week disturbance:
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