Ice, Thunder, Snow, Cold, Coastal Threats

By: Pcroton , 11:37 AM GMT on February 20, 2014

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2/23 3PM

Good Afternoon. Models beginning to find a consensus and that is of a weaker storm with a missed connection.




Updates begin on post #128



=========================================

2/23

One more day of warmth before we return to winter.

A light event will move through the region tonight with the heaviest potential focused over Maine. The chance of a more significant snowfall event exists for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Updates begin on Post #112.


Tonight's maximum event potential:




=================================

2/22/2014

Good Morning. We still have a weak Sunday night system on the models and our Wednesday threat of which the models still are not within a proper window to generate an agreeable solution.

Update begins on Post #83


========================================

Ice, Thunder, Snow, Cold, Coastal Threats


Good Morning. We have quite a rollercoaster ride on our hands here. A powerful low pressure area will be heading through the western Great Lakes into Canada will trail a strong cold front leading to strong and potentially severe thunderstorms Friday.

Due to cold air that is strongly locked in we have a freezing rain threat throughout the period across the northern portions of the North East and across southern Canada.





================================================= =

HPC Hazards Maps:






================================================= =

Ice Potential of a glaze or more through Friday Morning:





================================================= =

Ice Potential of a tenth of an inch or more through Sunday Morning:




================================================= =

There is even the chance of some accumulating snowfall between now and Saturday morning.
This is the HPC Maximum Reasonable Accumulation Potential through Sunday Morning. This is not a forecast.





================================================= =

Temperatures will rise significantly on Friday aiding in a strong to severe thunderstorm threat.




================================================= =

SPC Severe Storm Threats:




Thursday Threats:




================================================= =

Winds will be a major issue with the passage of this low pressure area and cold front. I am concerned for areas of Pennsylvania and western New Jersey who experience the major ice storm not too long ago. Many trees that you believe survived the event are in fact heavily damaged and could be coming down in these wind gusts. An overly saturated ground from heavy rains couple with recent warming will increase the vulnerability of many trees.




================================================= =

Flooding is of high concern given the wide ranging snow pack with a high water content. Heavy Rains are on the way. I think the HPC may be selling us a bit short here on QPF in the middle atlantic and north east.






================================================= =

After this storm system pulls through for the fifth and hopefully last time this season the polar vortex will be influencing our weather. The same processes that have led to the continued return of cold air have remained in place. At least one week out of each month this winter we have seen mild temperatures only to return to three more weeks of well below normal temperatures and renewed snowfall threats.


The North Pacific SST Anomaly: This feature had rebuilt itself in recent weeks but has begun to wane yet not before contributing to the reloading of the winter pattern.





================================================= =

The rebuilding western ridge and active sub-tropical jet stream:





================================================= =


The polar vortex returns:






================================================= =

The cold air plunges back in:





================================================= =

Long range temperature anomaly outlooks:







================================================= =

We also have several coastal threats that could become a reality. At this time frame all we worry about is the fact that the models continue to place disturbances in the region within a favorable pattern for development. Finer details won't be available until within a minimum of 72hrs of the onset of any event. Keep in mind the models will flip flop around on how to render this disturbance and it's energy as they try to time the interaction between polar and sub tropical energy. No model run should be taken seriously at this time. Here is the mid week disturbance:






======================

Threat #2:





================================================= =

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141. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:25 AM GMT on February 24, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
140. VR46L
4:00 AM GMT on February 24, 2014
Hiya P .

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=658005967599 656&set=vb.158734987526759&type=2&theater.
Close-up animation of the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (Feb 13)

This is a close-up animation of the snowstorm that impacted the East Coast from Feb. 12 to 14, and another storm that followed a couple of days later. The animation runs from 12Z (7am EST) Feb 12 through 12Z Feb. 16, 2014. Details regarding the storm can be found in our Storm Summary http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summarie s/storm8/stormsum_11.html


I know you don't do FB but maybe you don't need to belong to FB to see it ! Hope you are well
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
139. PhillySnow
2:24 AM GMT on February 24, 2014
It's springtime here in Tennessee, with a light drizzle that has the remarkably fresh scent of a spring time rain.

I'm with you Noreasterrr, always happy for a big snow; and I have to say that this winter has already been very satisfying and I'm ready for spring.

Looks like I'll be able to fly home on time. Unless it changes. :)
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138. noreasterrrrr
9:08 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Euro gives a good hit right
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137. noreasterrrrr
9:07 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
P the track isnt set in stone tho right? Im sure we really will see models flip flop a bit before confirmed path. The way this winter has been we wont know until tomorrow when the pattern changes and csn sample better..we are still in the game for a significant snow Wednesday.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
136. palmettobug53
8:15 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Hiya, PC and friends.

It looks like some folks have got one last hurrah to get through.

It's been great here in the Lowcountry for the last week or so. Spring is here, as is the annual Green Blizzard. Ah, ah, ahhhhCHOO! Oh, joy. Already started on the Zyrtec.

It looks like we'll get some chilly weather, rain and possible severe T-storms.

I'll chime in with my thanks on the weather discussions here. They've been most helpful.

Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 239 Comments: 25386
135. Pcroton
7:59 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Quoting 133. Climate175:
I also think this might be the last cold outbreak of the season, after this we are on the incline.


Yeah that is a given. If you missed it check post #26. It's older data now but it is a good illustration as to what's going on with this cold invasion and how the next one is going to be less.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
134. Pcroton
7:57 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
It appears that the trough will be broad and will have a flow trending out to sea. Everything seems displaced East.






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133. Climate175
7:57 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
I also think this might be the last cold outbreak of the season, after this we are on the incline.
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132. Climate175
7:55 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
3 more weeks until Spring. This cold will hopefully stay for just early March.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
131. Pcroton
7:53 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Quoting 129. johnbluedog69:
almost 64 degrees here in sea ford DE. cant believe it is still winter beautiful outside today calm before the storm iguess...


It's almost Spring. I think every year we get into winter and we tend to forget about the nice days we can and do have a couple times each month throughout the winter season.

We got another 10 day or so bump in the road and then we're in the clear. Might be wet, might be cool, it's March...but it will be Spring.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
130. Pcroton
7:52 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Here are the HPC graphics on the storm which now DO encompass the event. Looks like the 2-4" solution for us here.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
129. johnbluedog69
7:47 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
almost 64 degrees here in sea ford DE. cant believe it is still winter beautiful outside today calm before the storm iguess...
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
128. Pcroton
7:47 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
12Z Models. Still all showing the same general idea. They're just not timing the polar/subtrop energy in a way that would produce a bigger storm that would turn up the coast.

You can see it on all of them now with the low around the great lakes and the low off the coast. They are simply too far away. Whether or not that ends up being the case we ought to know for certain tomorrow. Models seem to be in good agreement that it's not going to occur.

Euro still remains the most "optimistic" if you will. NAM actually came north and is more like the GFS now with some interaction. CMC got very weak on this run.

Overall they seem to be zeroed in on the weaker solution though. I am sure they will still move around some on the 0Z and then tomorrow is when they will close in on a solution. They are all in the same time frame here as well. 72hr and 78hr frames.








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127. Pcroton
7:37 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Afternoon everyone. Did a full yard cleaning. Tshirt weather for that. Turned the veggie and herb gardens over.

57F max but there is no wind so it feels much warmer. Yesterday got so windy so early there was no enjoying it here.

I see the boundary basically held around the turnpike but it did warm a little more north of there than I thought maybe it would.





As to Tuesday-Wednesday...don't know if I'm not really interested in it or what. We've had so much snow this year if it ends up the GFS 2-4" idea versus an up the coast 6-12" it's kind of meaningless at this point.

Being out in the yard today sold me on the fact it's time for the seasons to change. After we get through this 10 day stretch we should be well on our way. I know there's still the whole new idea that all of March is going to be ice cold but I got to be honest - I'm not buying that. At some point the models will just be wrong with wanting to repeat the pattern over and over. It happens every year. Question is when do we catch that moment in time.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
126. aquak9
6:30 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Hi P et al-
ya'll got water coming. Don't know what shape it'll be in, but it's coming- unless it all pulls off east of ya.

It's raining here- been raining, still raining, gonna rain some more (yesterday it was fixin' to rain) there, I think I conjugated all those verbs right, hahaha

I got at LEAST three big laundry baskets of letti to pick, leaves bigger than a snowboard-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26643
125. cooldogs13
5:37 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Just watched steve d's video and and the 12z models for Tuesday into Wednesday looking like a weaker storm :(
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124. doom22015
5:29 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
We have 56F here in Burke VA. Can't wait for the temp to drop!
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123. cooldogs13
5:17 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
We got very warm here today I guess temps are going to drop very soon temp is at 60.8 right now
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122. Matlack
3:06 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Well I got my warmth in this morning, 53* at 10am. Doors open letting in the air!
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121. Pcroton
2:02 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Quoting 115. jrzyshore:
I would like to get my Thanks in here as well. One stop shopping for me too.

I suggest a permanent disclaimer vetted by a team of lawyers at the bottom of each of your posts to prevent from revisiting this seasons nonsense !! lol



Thanks to all who contribute.

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120. Pcroton
2:01 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
There are a few snowfall maps out for tonight's event.







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119. Pcroton
1:58 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Well, looks like we're not going to get all that warm today after all.







...The front today isn't of much concern. Later this afternoon or evening we should see some rain showers go over to snow showers over night. Just some nuisance accumulation on cars and such I would think.


The next system comes in late Tuesday or tuesday night. Of no concern until the overnight hours. Ends Wednesday afternoon.

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118. cooldogs13
1:32 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
P what is the timing on the clipper system and what is the timing on the Tuesday Wednesday event?
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117. tlawson48
1:24 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
For those of us up to the north, we are finally in the last FOUR weeks of winter. Definitely jealous of those of you to the south!
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116. PhillySnow
1:20 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Good morning, all! Thanks for the models and information, P!

I'm in Nashville, TN; hoping I can get home Wednesday evening. I hate to miss the storm, and I'd hate even more to not be able to get home. Right now it looks like the storm ends in the morning sometime, so there's hope. I don't know how long it takes PHL to get flights back on track if they have to shut down.
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115. jrzyshore
1:06 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Quoting 114. rod2635:


Have had your blog on 'speed dial' every day since 12/1. Now I wait til 6/1 for the start of hurricane season.
I would like to get my Thanks in here as well. One stop shopping for me too.

I suggest a permanent disclaimer vetted by a team of lawyers at the bottom of each of your posts to prevent you from having to revisit this seasons nonsense on a daily basis!! lol
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114. rod2635
12:48 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Quoting 112. Pcroton:
Today's high temperatures come early before the front begins to move in.







And the 0Z model runs for the mid week event. CMC and GFS both came north and west as both model runs have more interaction with the polar disturbance thus steering the surface low closer to the coast.









Again, remember what we're dealing with here, they are computer models using whatever little data they have on the disturbances that will play into this, and are trying to come to a solution. These are not forecasts, no one run is "the right run", and there is no need at ALL to say "Oh well, GFS still shows it off shore, break out the beach chair." MUCH AS there is NO REASON to say "Ooo Euro still hits us good, better gas up the blower!"

I mean, they're models, folks.... we've been down this road 20 times before. There's honestly nothing to discuss until we get even closer to the event. Today you'd expect the models to begin to tighten up and resemble each other's solutions more and we see that with the 0Z already. Tomorrow is when we start to get a good consensus. Tuesday is when we start to work out the border zones.

And lastly, it's the end of the season, any snow is good snow. If you're expecting a blockbuster you're going to be disappointed. If you are tired of snow and want to downplay this to rain you're going to be upset as well.

It's the weather... and winter has one last week in it. What can I say...either enjoy it or hole up for another week.


It may be our last event of significance this winter. March on the doorstep and increasingly large temp departures required to sustain a major snow event. Thanks for getting us thru this winter. Have had your blog on 'speed dial' every day since 12/1. Now I wait til 6/1 for the start of hurricane season.
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113. Pcroton
12:46 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Here are your HPC graphics. Keep in mind these only go through 72 hours and terminate at 7am Wednesday - and as such do not encompass the entire mid-week storm event...you're only getting a peek at the storm.













Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
112. Pcroton
12:39 PM GMT on February 23, 2014
Today's high temperatures come early before the front begins to move in.







And the 0Z model runs for the mid week event. CMC and GFS both came north and west as both model runs have more interaction with the polar disturbance thus steering the surface low closer to the coast.









Again, remember what we're dealing with here, they are computer models using whatever little data they have on the disturbances that will play into this, and are trying to come to a solution. These are not forecasts, no one run is "the right run", and there is no need at ALL to say "Oh well, GFS still shows it off shore, break out the beach chair." MUCH AS there is NO REASON to say "Ooo Euro still hits us good, better gas up the blower!"

I mean, they're models, folks.... we've been down this road 20 times before. There's honestly nothing to discuss until we get even closer to the event. Today you'd expect the models to begin to tighten up and resemble each other's solutions more and we see that with the 0Z already. Tomorrow is when we start to get a good consensus. Tuesday is when we start to work out the border zones.

And lastly, it's the end of the season, any snow is good snow. If you're expecting a blockbuster you're going to be disappointed. If you are tired of snow and want to downplay this to rain you're going to be upset as well.

It's the weather... and winter has one last week in it. What can I say...either enjoy it or hole up for another week.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
111. washingtonian115
12:07 AM GMT on February 23, 2014
Quoting 107. Pcroton:



For Philly to NYC I think we're in the 6-12" ballpark if the current Euro verified.


For Washington? That's a tough one. I don't know how much DC would be in on this system...but from the sound of the discussion below for DC I guess in the same general area yet I personally would put DC lower like say 4-8" in this scenario being it's further from the coast and further from the intensifying low (whereas Philly-NY would just get more QPF out of things).



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
333 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
STATES TUESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS LACKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM THERE...AS THE GFS
TAKES THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE AREA AND
THE EURO BRINGS IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP AMOUNT. FAVORED THE EURO SOLUTION IN
KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. PTYPE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE COLD
SECTOR OF THE LOW AND A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE.





Still sounds like a moderate event for Mid-week.Sigh.
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110. Pcroton
11:44 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 108. noreasterrrrr:
I know its too soon to tell but I think the good point you made couple of days ago is coming in to play, when u said the models aren't picking up on the tilt in the jet stream the cold air will create


I think this is a contributing factor, yes. I don't know if I like the flatter idea. More amplified makes sense with the sharp cold air intrusion. Thus a closer to the coast scenario.


Are we Norfolk to the BenchMark?
Are we SC/NC border to 65/40?

Really, that's all that's here that seperates the two ideas.

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109. Pcroton
11:42 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 105. Climate175:


That's pretty cool.

Quoting 106. noreasterrrrr:
Seeming like the storm may take track closer to coast?


I don't think anyone has any idea. The professional consensus is leaning Euro.

I think it's too early to consider one model over the other but the winter in general has suggested you'd go with the closer to the coast idea. Soo... Euro.

What all this comes down to is speed and timing of the disturbances and the Euro is just telling you it thinks the timing will be more opportunistic.

Euro is more amplified at 500mb and the other models are flatter.

The disturbances are not yet sampled and won't be until later Sunday at the earliest.

Same old story.
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108. noreasterrrrr
11:40 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
I know its too soon to tell but I think the good point you made couple of days ago is coming in to play, when u said the models aren't picking up on the tilt in the jet stream the cold air will create
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107. Pcroton
11:39 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 102. washingtonian115:
So say the storm comes closer to the coast on wen.I know making snow totals this far out is foolish.But what would be the range be for possible totals?.I have something important coming up on Wen.



For Philly to NYC I think we're in the 6-12" ballpark if the current Euro verified.


For Washington? That's a tough one. I don't know how much DC would be in on this system...but from the sound of the discussion below for DC I guess in the same general area yet I personally would put DC lower like say 4-8" in this scenario being it's further from the coast and further from the intensifying low (whereas Philly-NY would just get more QPF out of things).



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
333 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
STATES TUESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS LACKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM THERE...AS THE GFS
TAKES THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE AREA AND
THE EURO BRINGS IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP AMOUNT. FAVORED THE EURO SOLUTION IN
KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. PTYPE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE COLD
SECTOR OF THE LOW AND A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE.





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106. noreasterrrrr
11:39 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Seeming like the storm may take track closer to coast?
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105. Climate175
11:37 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
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104. Pcroton
11:32 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
That one has bounced all over the place and we should probably ignore it for now.


Upton chimes in on Tuesday night-Wednesday. They too believe.



===

AS THE PV DESCENDS INTO ONTARIO MID WEEK...A POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT...AND THEN
PASS OHD ON WED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...WITH AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
PASSING JUST SE OF 40N/70W PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER AT LEAST A MEDIUM IMPACT SNOWFALL.
MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH VIA INTERACTION OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS...AND POSSIBLE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS IN
THE COLD AIR MASS...COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION LONG ISLAND IN THE HWO
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WINDS DURING THE
EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE INTO WED
NIGHT AS SNOW ENDS...WITH WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY MEETING ADVY CRITERIA
WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS TEMPS THERE FALL TO NEAR ZERO.
EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ELSEWHERE WED NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 BELOW TOWARD MORNING.
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103. noreasterrrrr
11:24 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
P there was a storm threat on the table for next weekend..is there a chance for that or too early?
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
102. washingtonian115
11:20 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 101. Pcroton:
The HPC and OPC are on different pages.




HPC looks like the Euro.
OPC looks like the GFS/CMC.

They're both NOAA.

So say the storm comes closer to the coast on wen.I know making snow totals this far out is foolish.But what would be the range be for possible totals?.I have something important coming up on Wen.
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101. Pcroton
11:17 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
The HPC and OPC are on different pages.




HPC looks like the Euro.
OPC looks like the GFS/CMC.

They're both NOAA.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
100. Pcroton
10:57 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
HPC probabilities first for the little disturbance coming through tomorrow night into Monday. Second frame is the start of the Tuesday-Wednesday event...but the product ends at 7AM Wednesday and does not encompass the event. It does give a feel for where the HPC sees the snow swath though.

Curious how much HPC/NWS is going all Euro here and ignoring all other guidance. You would think if there is something more to this event as the Euro shows - that the other models would at least flinch in that direction by tomorrow's 12Z Runs.







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99. Pcroton
10:52 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Mount Holly really likes Wednesday. High percentages from this distance out.


TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BRISK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.


===

AFTER THIS, ATTN TURNS ONCE AGAIN TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GLFMEX
TUE NIGHT THAT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA CST ERLY WED. THEN IT MOVES
NEWD TWD THE CAN MARITIMES DURG THE DAY ON WED. THE GFS AND CMC
HAVE A MORE EWD TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE WWD TRACK WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW. BASED ON OUR TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER OF MORE
WWD TRACKS AND THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE OF LATE, THE ECMWF SEEMS
LIKE THE BETTER SOLN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NORMALLY
GOOD UKMET IS DOWNPLAYING THIS SYS AS WELL. SO WHILE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TWD THE ECMWF, CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
ATTM. THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYS. BASED ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK(FAMOUS LAST WORDS...) IT WOULD SEEM TO BE A HIGH END
ADVY LOW END WRNG EVENT. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER,
THESE THINGS SEEM TO RAMP UP AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. WE WILL SEE
IF THOSE TRENDS CONTINUE.

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98. Pcroton
10:48 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 93. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I like to call it old man winters last kick in the pants before the march roaring in like a savage good bye


Whatever comes it appears to be the last gasp of deep winter weather.


Plenty of energy in the Pacific ready to contribute to Wednesday.



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97. Pcroton
10:45 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 96. evsnds:
I'm calling it now, P. Wednesday's storm is going to head out to sea, and then hug the coast off New England.


Certainly a chance for that. GFS shows that with it's timing of the disturbances being off.

Euro on the other hand times things right for a significant storm... 6-12" type thing maybe.

I don't really have an opinion on it. Sticking to my Sunday theme for that.


=====

Sunday night's disturbance gathering strength.





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96. evsnds
8:25 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
I'm calling it now, P. Wednesday's storm is going to head out to sea, and then hug the coast off New England.
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95. noreasterrrrr
7:18 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
We want snow we want snow!!! ..looking like a possible bigger storm Wednesday
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:17 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
93. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:15 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 92. Pcroton:
Enjoy it. Boy are we going to tank.









I like to call it old man winters last kick in the pants before the march roaring in like a savage good bye
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
92. Pcroton
7:12 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Enjoy it. Boy are we going to tank.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12569
91. goofyrider
6:42 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Nice basking in the sun by the south side of the new pool.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2938

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.