Middle Atlantic Dec21-25 Storms

By: Pcroton , 11:24 AM GMT on December 15, 2013

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On the heels of the impressive and in some cases exciting and surprising storm of Dec 14th we will do what we do best and peek right on ahead and start duping ourselves with the model runs. It's just what we do.


Here's a peek ahead...and remember when you see the below frames the GFS has performed spectacularly going back into October in the 10-16 day range. No joke it's probably been better with the long range peek than the 24-60 hour time frame by a decent margin.

===============================

December 21:



December 24:







=======================

Here is the HPC almost into the timeframe but speaking of the arctic intrusion that is going to set up this event:


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2013

VALID 12Z WED DEC 18 2013 - 12Z SUN DEC 22 2013

...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS POISED TO DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

...OVERVIEW...
NORTH AMERICA APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED BY A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
PACIFIC FLOW PATTERN THAT DIRECTS A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FROM WEST
COAST TO EAST COAST.

A STRONG...NEARLY-STATIONARY RIDGE IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN JET NORTH OF 45N LATITUDE...BUT ALLOW A
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM TO DEVELOP AND PROSPER
ALONG 30N LATITUDE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.

THE PATTERN SETTING UP ALOFT SETS UP A CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES "OVER-RUNNING" THE MID-RIO GRANDE VALLEY

===========================



They do not get to day 9 which is of bigger consequence but they do get to the first event of the 21st.




SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS COULD SEE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ALONG THE FRONT DAYS 5-6...WITH WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
NORTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK. IN ADDITION...SECONDARY
OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST... APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF DAY 7...WITH WINTER
P-TYPE OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AS VERY SHALLOW
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND...DAY 7.


=======

Come Tuesday or Wednesday we should begin to get a peek at the Christmas Eve storm potential.


For now here is the GFS Snow Depth and temps for 7PM XMAS EVE







=================

As always never trust any fine point details on model runs more than a couple days out but I will mention again that the GFS long range has performed remarkably in spotting these systems in the long term...only to inexplicably massacre the solutions once we enter the 24-72 hour range.



Here is the evolution of the potential Xmas Eve storm.








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105. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:58 PM GMT on December 20, 2013
Pcroton has created a new entry.
104. NEwxguy
2:24 PM GMT on December 20, 2013
Yeh,thats strange,although its not been way below normal,we still have been average at best since August.Dec has been quite a bit below normal,although this weekend will cut into that deficit.New England going to have some interesting weather this weekend.The south coast could get into the 60's,While Maine could get into a serious icing situation.We'll have to see where the front settles.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15084
103. Pcroton
2:21 PM GMT on December 20, 2013
These NOAA maps are the absolute worst.

Anyone else feel like November was average or above average while we were freezing? They've done this all year painting us in red at times when we were very cold in June and Aug-Sept, now Nov. What's next? December driest hottest on record in the face of 3 record snowfall events for their respective dates?





The map alone is terrible. To try to use it to analyze or forecast anything....well, I don't have kind words.

There has got to be a better way to go about this. I am simply uncomfortable watching terrible data derived from poor and limited collection methods over a tiny period of time being used to forecast our future.

It's irresponsible at best.

Well, I'm sure our two day warm up will be used to forecast the end of times, and the following 2 day cool down will be disregarded as bad data or something along those lines.


Oh boy.


Well, off to do some chorse, with a good off day here.


We shall look further into our thunderstorm threat as it nears - as that's about the most interesting aspect of the next few days weather wise.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
102. Pcroton
1:53 PM GMT on December 20, 2013
Yeah you made a good call, LT. I can understand the models taking time to catch the quick pattern flip but to see the forecast go from 4 days of unsettled weather to 18 hours of it... kinda scratching my head on that one. Brings us back to the Mt Holly discussions disregarding the GFS for showing this very solution, citing poor QPF and a weak system and the like. Then they dramatically shift their forecast to match the very model they disliked.


Well...I don't know if this even is interesting or gross. Kind of leaning towards the latter unless we got a thunderstorm out of it. Check out the "peak" of the warmth with the storm. Some interesting things going on. 65F+ Dewpoints and a high supercell composite? This is a little nuts.














...ERN GULF COAST NEWD TO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC...
A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS TN/AL SWD TO THE GULF COAST...ALONG OR AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING
COLD FRONT. WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF A LLJ
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
SUN MORNING WITHIN AND/OR AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
ACROSS AL/GA AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLS INTO CANADA. THE
LINE SHOULD DECELERATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
DAY ACROSS AL/GA AND BECOME PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO. A SLIGHT RISK
UPGRADE COULD BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.

FARTHER N...INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BUOYANCY WILL BE RATHER WEAK /DESPITE RELATIVELY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AS
WELL WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT CHANGES AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NW. A MARGINAL STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MORE
THAN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES ATTM.










=====

Posts #99-100 on the previous page outline the rest of the threats on board.


.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
101. originalLT
1:24 PM GMT on December 20, 2013
As to post #100, thats what I've been expecting since two days ago-- see my posts #84 and 93.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7071
100. Pcroton
1:02 PM GMT on December 20, 2013
BTW the NWS has been atrocious in handling the forecasting of this upcoming event. It has now been squeezed into an 18 hour at best event when the NWS once had it spanning FOUR FULL DAYS.

We had RAIN for Friday into Tuesdy just 48 hours ago. Now we have this:


TODAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.

SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SUNDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BREEZY WITH LOWS AROUND 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

MONDAY
CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
99. Pcroton
12:58 PM GMT on December 20, 2013
Morning folks, I have been very busy with work with long days. I will take a peek at the mentioned discussions today, thanks!



Meanwhile, GFS wants us wet.

240hr Accumulated Precip:



GFS is also trying to once again introduce the Dec 27-28 system back into the picture. Remember it had it near us a week ago and had it turning the corner up New England's coastline delivering a blow.

Then it took it out to sea far to the south of us all.

Now it has decided to try to push it back into the middle atlantic and begin to do something with some light snow in the southern portions of the area.









I think there are a couple things to consider here.

The GFS like the other models were on the idea that XMas could be a significant snow storm and they saw the sudden jet stream change rather late and then abruptly flipped modeling.

The storm coming in, the NWS has not liked how the GFS kind of peters it out in the region.

Never really like trying to detail a second storm on the heels of the first as once the first is done it seems models then tend to change how they perceive the environment for the second storm.


That being said we still have a number of things to watch unfold over the next two weeks.

The January 1st system is now more intriguing snow potential wise....but that in turn would put what seemed to be a more perfect system, jan 3-4, out to sea. Note the cold blast behind it and note how strong this storm gets. Could be something to watch here the first week of January appears promising.









Snow at 324hr and 384hr.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
98. Jasspjesta
3:25 AM GMT on December 20, 2013
Check out Steve DiMartino's long range discussion he just put out. Usually reserved for premium membership members but put it out to the public as an early Christmas gift from Santa. Pretty awesome discussion on the factors that will drive our cold and stormy weather pattern after this brief warm-up this weekend and the refreshed arctic invasion for Christmas. Also mentions why blocking in the North Atlantic will be back. Getting excited!!
Member Since: December 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
97. originalLT
3:31 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
"P", if you haven't looked at yet, Henry Margusetti's video blog for today on Accuweather, Check it out.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7071
96. Pcroton
2:27 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
If you are LOST the weekend STORM ANALYSIS begins at post #89.


========================================

Bufkit Temps for Rutgers/central NJ and for Stamford CT:


STAMFORD:



RUTGERS:




Okay thats all for now. If you are LOST the weekend STORM ANALYSIS begins at post #89.



=====



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
95. Pcroton
2:19 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
May even see some December thunder as the front pulls through Sunday.




Severe weather down south could translate to a few isolated embedded thundershowers in our weather. Seeing highs hitting 60-70 would mean the chance is there...so don't be surprised. Don't expect any signficant storm though.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
94. Pcroton
2:09 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
Quoting 93. originalLT:
Thanks for all the info "P",kinda looks like with that arctic front coming in next Monday, is that the only way we'd get some snow out of it, is if a low decided to "spin up" on the front as it pushed thru, and happened to be in just the right position to our SE , moving NE along the front, to have enough cold air get involved. Thats a long shot to work out just right. Otherwise Tuesday and Christmas Day will just be mostly sunny and cold. No chance for any more snow till after XMAS.


Hi LT. Good call on last night's 3rd disturbance btw.

Yes if we believe the GFS then the QPF will depart before the cold enters. However the NWS wording sounds like they aren't big fans of the GFS solution and maybe leaned a little towards Euro - but all the same the Euro doesn't seem to bring any chance at a changeover.

Now we look forward... Arctic hits are coming again thankfully...and this warmup is just a temporary hiccup and not a pattern change.

Looks like a borderline threat January 1st as details this far out on a map are sketchy and who knows where the disturbance will actually be (south or north) and that changes rain or snow forecasts. Nice to see the cold air come in and the disturbances start up again however. January 4th looks like it could be very interesting. At 384 hourse there is a disturbance in the south in good placement and cold air up here. That could be our first good hit.

Yes 16 days is ridiculous to forecast but the GFS continues to have an excellent track record in the long term dating back to late October.


Here's the peek ahead: Arctic Blasts and the future disturbances. (Again folks, we're not putting trust in actual weather here, we're looking for the pattern of cold snaps and disturbances..we will worry about fine point details once they are realized).









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
93. originalLT
2:02 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
Thanks for all the info "P",kinda looks like with that arctic front coming in next Monday, is that the only way we'd get some snow out of it, is if a low decided to "spin up" on the front as it pushed thru, and happened to be in just the right position to our SE , moving NE along the front, to have enough cold air get involved. Thats a long shot to work out just right. Otherwise Tuesday and Christmas Day will just be mostly sunny and cold. No chance for any more snow till after XMAS.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7071
92. Pcroton
1:56 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
When you look at all this...despite the warmup it looks like we're right on climatological target to take a deep plunge into winter right after Christmas.



Here is the GFS Snow DEPTH maps at twp select points.









Here is the Euro modeling of the storm system at various points.

















Well folks, that's really all there is to look at right now. I think Friday is the next day to get a better look at things.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
91. Pcroton
1:49 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
If you've made it that far you are ready for some maps.


Here is the GFS progression of the storms, the zoomed in temperatures on Sunday hitting 60s-70s.

The final two frames are temps at 150hrs and 240hrs which I included to continue to illustrate the orientation of the cold arctic air setup. This has continued to favor our region and despite this week's coming jet stream flip - that seems temporary - and the overall pattern will resume.












====================




====================










Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
90. Pcroton
1:36 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
Now this summary is interesting because it hints that modeling has shifted, or they are going against guidance, in bringing the first low into New England just north of the region - instead of guidance which had it going into the Great Lakes and then Canada.

The first low will set up the front and thus the train of subsequent lows. The further east the first low is, the better chance the final low "gets lucky" and sees cold air before departing.

This summary would allude to that possibility, however, the zone products seem to refute that. Oversight? Both text products not yet aligned? We will see. The detailed discussion goes the other way. Conflicts are always an odd thing especially when within the same text. Different forecasters write different portions of these texts but being released as one product one would think thoughts should be shared.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

809 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013

A COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SAG AND THEN STALL OVER
OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, IT WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. YET ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ITS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY.


============



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
632 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


=============


Detailed versions:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ




.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***RECORD WARMTH POTENTIAL SUNDAY***

THE GFS INITIALIZATION AND SHORT TERM VERIFICATION WAS MUCH BETTER
THAN LAST NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB WERE A BIT TOO COLD AT
850MB OFF THEIR INITIALIZATION, BUT PRETTY GOOD AT 925MB. AS PER
PMDHMD, WE ARE GOING TO USE A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE LONG
TERM.

GIVING CONTINUED MEANING TO THE EXPRESSION THERE IS NO SUCH THING
AS A FREE LUNCH, THE DECEMBER THAW THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND MAY COME WITH A PRICE AS SNOW MELT AND RAIN MIGHT COMBINE TO
PRODUCE FLOODING. AFTER THAT WE ARE SEEING DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN
OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES HEADING TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
CLOSEST PASS TO OUR CWA AS A RETURN FLOW SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD
DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS OUT OF
REACH, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LARGER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN THE HAVES (SNOW) AND HAVE NOTS. WE
WERE CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND SOUTHEAST OF THE FALL LINE, BUT
AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE NORTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS AND WRF-NMMB IN PARTICULAR DEVELOP
EITHER STRATUS OR FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. HAVE TO GO BACK
THREE YEARS TO TRY TO RECALL A SIMILAR SCENARIO AND THAT TRAIN LEFT
THE YARD A LONG TIME AGO. GIVEN THE WINDS, EVEN WITH THE SNOW
COVER, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WRF-NMMB IS TOO BULLISH WITH FORMING
LOW CLOUDS (ALTHOUGH IT DOES HAVE SOME SREF SUPPORT) IN THE SNOW
COVER AREAS. SO WE HEDGED IT PARTLY CLOUDY. WE EXPECT ENOUGH OF A
LULL WITH THE LONG LONG NIGHT FOR MIN TEMPS TO OUTPERFORM AND WE
SIDED TOWARD THE COLDER STAT GUIDANCE.

THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE AND CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SAGS THE FRONT
INTO OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ROOM FOR SOME TEMPERATURE
BUSTS IF THE FRONT DOES SAG FARTHER SOUTH. NONETHELESS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD NOT BE A GEOGRAPHICAL PROBLEM ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN
THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WAS KEPT DOWN, WHILE WE SIDED WITH STAT
GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET IS WELL
SITUATED, EVEN WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF, WE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON POPS
NORTHERN HALF.

TEMPERATURES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE WEATHER BECOMES COMPLICATED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. RIGHT
NOW ITS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. POPS WERE
EMPHASIZED NORTH. WE DOUBLE HEDGED BECAUSE OF THE FRONT AND
REMAINING SNOW TO HAVE CONSERVATIVELY LOWER MINS AND MAXES NORTH.
ALOFT ITS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. HAVE TO WATCH FAR FAR NORTH
ABOUT FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. OP MODELS BRING SFC
TEMPS TO THE MID 30S FAR FAR NORTH, SIMILAR TO STAT GUIDANCE.

IF THERE IS A COLD WIGGLE FOR SATURDAY, ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE BULLISH ABOUT A VERY WARM FOR DECEMBER ON SUNDAY. WE DID
NOT GO AS HIGH AS THEIR STAT GUIDANCE, OUR MINS AND MAX TEMPS ARE
STILL ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL. HERE COMES THE
LACK OF A FREE LUNCH AS THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER SHOULD GIVE
THE SNOW PACK A MAJOR HIT. COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR
MASS, GFS`S PREDICTED PWATS ARE BEYOND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
DECEMBER, COMES THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. MARFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
ALREADY SHOWING SOME FLOODING CHANCES IN OUR AREA, CENTERED AROUND
THE RARITAN BASIN.

THE GFS REMAINS INEXPLICABLY LIGHT WITH ITS FCST QPF IN SPITE OF
THE FCST PWATS. HERE THE CAN GGEM AND ECMWF AT LEAST PAINT THE
POTENTIAL PICTURE BETTER. THE LONG WAVE TROF IS NOT FORECAST TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED, BUT REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED, PART OF
THE REASON FOR THE SUBDUED QPF. TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE
CONFIDENT THAT THIS TROF FEATURE WILL VERIFY. LASTLY, WHILE NOT ON
THE LEVEL OF THE PAIR OF NCFCB WE HAD IN NOVEMBER, THE FCST 925MB
AND 850MB WINDS REACHING 60-70KTS STARTS TOUCHING THE
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVEL FOR WIND RELATED HEADLINES. RIGHT NOW UPRIGHT
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA.

OUR GRIDDED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 2
DEGREES OF RECORD AND OR EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS RECORD. THE 00Z/18
ECMWF MASS FIELD INFO CONVERTED TO NCEP MOS THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
FCST GEORGETOWN DELAWARE ON SUNDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. IF ITS
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...THAT EXCESSIVE PRE
CHRISTMAS WARMTH WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WE`RE ONLY FCSTG AROUND 70
AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF SKYCOVER...WIND DIRECTION.

WE ADMIT WE ARE DRAGGING OUR POPS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WE
OPTED FOR AN EC AND GFS TIMING BLEND AS THEY ARE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
TIMING CAMPS. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN IS FORECAST TO SHUT OFF
BEFORE A POTENTIAL CHANGE TO WINTRY PTYPE. LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT
TEMPS MONDAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING. THEN TUESDAY
MORE CONFIDENTLY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A RETURN OF SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPS. CHRISTMAS DAY ALSO APPEARS DRY.


============



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE AGREED UPON BY ALL FORECAST MODELS. AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL RISE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS THE
STAGE FOR A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO THE
RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANY WAVES THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
KEEPING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE
WELL DEFINED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES THE EASTERN STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE PERIOD WHEN
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NE NEW JERSEY AND THE CITY
WITH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FORECAST ELSEWHERE. EVEN WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SUNDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE READINGS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 14 TO 16C. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED
THAT SOME GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE MEX MOS AND ECMWF...ARE EVEN WARMER
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
89. Pcroton
1:30 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
Well folks it looks like the Jet Stream pattern has simply completely flipped.

That 12Z GFS run I mocked a few days ago - in turn - seemed to have been the first model run to actually pick up on the pattern change.

Sometimes the models don't know when to quit with a certain pattern and then have a sudden flip in solutions when they do. I'm guessing that is what has happened here. The Euro took another few cycles to catch on.

Given that we're only looking at warm rain we will just continue the discussion in this particular blog entry. Besides it is always of interet to look back and see how the modeling, forecasting, and personal thoughts evolved. Some day we might learn from that....until we see the next major storm on a model and get sucked in with promise. It's just what we do.


Here is Mount Holly for Monmouth County NJ:

SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.

SUNDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.

MONDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S.



====

More to follow.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 29 Comments: 5163
88. Pcroton
12:28 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
Good Morning all.

We will take a look at the weekend-->xmas storm system and see if we can find any hidden gems on the back end of it.

John, good to see you got your snow. I saw the line in central DE last night last I checked and said ah well maybe next time down there but it did swing through after all once the storm wrapped up.

LT was correct the storm slid too far south of me. I last checked at around 9 or 10pm and radar showed no way would it reach up here. Storm did wind up but too far East to orient the precip this far north.

That's fine. 3 busts in one day is a new thing. Setting records all over the place! First wave 0.3" snow. Second wave was drizzle/radar hole/ended has freezing drizzle. Third wave too far south.

Seems like every time I check in on the RAP guidance is when it decides to take a dump.




...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BOSTON MA...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 6.4 INCHES WAS SET AT BOSTON MA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.8 INCHES SET IN 1970.


Eastern CT had 4-6" of snow yesterday/last night. RI (main cities) had 2-3". MA had 5-8".


I want everyone to once again see that in the month of December we have had 3 storm events that set daily snowfall records for their respective dates all through the region.

While we are going to all groan about the weekend getting warm and wet let us remember where we are in the season. It's the tail end of fall. It is December. How many years that turned out to be good snow years didn't see an accumulation until after Xmas? Quite a few of us are almost half way to our average annual totals, especially in the known warmer regions of the coasts, and we haven't even pushed into our usual accepted time frame to even start seeing snow.

It should be a good year...unless that was that. We can't even predict one day's weather, during that day, three times, without being wrong each of the three times. There's no real way of telling whats to come.

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87. johnbluedog69
12:15 PM GMT on December 18, 2013
It started snowing about 10:30 last night and we ended up with about a half inch accumulation. It's a start :)
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86. johnbluedog69
2:48 AM GMT on December 18, 2013
It seems the rain snow line is staying about 15 miles north of me. Soon enough we will get hit.
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85. originalLT
1:15 AM GMT on December 18, 2013
Oh, to answer your post # 77, "P", the roads were both icy and slushy at the same time.--A bit tricky.
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84. originalLT
12:58 AM GMT on December 18, 2013
Hi "P", see you are gone for the night. We here in Stamford got 3-4" of snow, right on target. It was mostly snow, but when I went out about 4pm there was some sleet and freezing rain for a bit, before going back to periods of light to very light snows. Never got above 27F here today. Last night it got down to 11F. Baro. got down to 29.96" during the day, now at 29.99"" and un-steady.. On Channel 2 they said could be near 60F by Sunday, cooling off Monday, Mostly sunny in the 30's Christmas Eve. We'll see on that. I still think that "part II tonight will not get far enough North to affect you--hope I am wrong. Now down to 22F here.NNW winds 3-8mph. Thanks for all your in-put today and all the time.
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83. Pcroton
11:50 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
This evening keeps evolving very nicely over Virgina. 925mb low evident now. Surface low deepening and is pretty strong and intensifying.















Well, good night folks. We'll see what it brings and look into the next sequence of storms tomorrow.

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82. Pcroton
11:25 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
30F. Freezing rain had fallen with the last little bit of precip. Ice coating on driveway and pails.

Tomorrow is a good day to pick apart the weekend warmth/rain and see if the final disturbance has any chance at back side snow before departing the region.


Looking at some PI reports it seems most of north NJ was 2-3" and most of eastern PA topped in the 3-4" range and CT in the 4-5" ranges. A lot of the totals reported in the 2pm-5pm time frame from west to east across the region.


This is also the THIRD snowfall event in the past 10 days that set regional daily snowfall records for the specific date.

617 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 3.6 INCHES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.4 SET IN 1961.



That is impressive and I keep frequently seeing "1961" as the previous record falling in the region. Perhaps those who like analog years for weather might have one to investigate.



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81. Pcroton
11:02 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Let's see who wins. RAP and Steve DiMartino.

Or the NWS which just boldly declared it all over with.


600 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TODAY'S TWO PART SNOW EVENT IS BASICALLY COMPLETED.
TWO TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS A WIDE EXPANSE OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
ELSEWHERE...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...
FELL OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NEAR PHILADELPHIA ON EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

WESTERN MONMOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD
552 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN THIS EVENING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

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80. Pcroton
10:54 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Evening, TRP. Clipper not done yet for me here in NJ.

As to the weekend and beyond I will put forth more into that tomorrow.

I took a peek at it on post #66. We're always looking wet and warm it was Monday that I thought I saw a chance for the final low to see cold air before it finished departing. Models as of now discount that idea.




Here is a good map showing tonight's final disturbance now showing up as a Low over Virginia, the 500mb lines that you can see kink more and more vertical over NJ, and the precip banding should basically emulate that.



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79. TheRasberryPatch
10:49 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Now we have this clipper out of the way. What do you think about Saturday and next week? WU seems to have the area calm down after Saturday
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78. Pcroton
10:42 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Quoting 70. johnbluedog69:
Delawhere??? did somebody say Delaware???


Might get a surprise later tonight.

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77. Pcroton
10:41 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
I think it fails to get into LI/CT but maybe some flurries.

Me here in central NJ you can see I am right on the line. Maybe its some dusting to inch. Maybe its 2".

It has certainly begun to amplify if you look back a few posts.


How were your roads, LT?

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76. originalLT
10:38 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Well we'll see if #2 "curls" up abit to the N as it moves thru. That would be a nice finish.
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75. Pcroton
10:33 PM GMT on December 17, 2013



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74. Pcroton
9:35 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Quoting 72. zotty:
P- that's the coolest thing I've seen in a long time. Thanks!

Still snowing in White Plains, NY. It is a bit lighter now, with sleet mixed in at times. The back side pretty much filled in all afternoon...

(This meant to be with P's quote but oh well :)


Evening Zotty. Looks like you finish up soon and it's unlikely you see the 2nd disturbance tonight.

How much did you get?

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73. Pcroton
9:35 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Some traffic cam pics.

I84 in CT


I91 in CT


I95 East of New Haven CT


I95 neat Stamford CT


NE of Hartford CT

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72. zotty
9:03 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
P- that's the coolest thing I've seen in a long time. Thanks!

Still snowing in White Plains, NY. It is a bit lighter now, with sleet mixed in at times. The back side pretty much filled in all afternoon...

(This meant to be with P's quote but oh well :)
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71. zotty
9:02 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Quoting 63. Pcroton:
Hi Jass, seems like if you trust the RAP that around 7PM it starts rolling, by Midnight is cranking, and then quickly pulls out by 2AM.



NE: There's the nice surprise for ya. Clipper turned storm. We may get our surprise as well if the 2nd disturbance performs as the RAP thinks so. So far the RAP has been on point today so I'd give it a decent faith at this point.


Meanwhile you must ALL check out THIS WIND PRODUCT MAP

You can click and drag the globe, you can double click to zoom in. You click the "Earth" tab to get the layers.



P- that's the coolest thing I've seen in a long time. Thanks!

Still snowing in White Plains, NY. It is a bit lighter now, with sleet mixed in at times. The back side pretty much filled in all afternoon...
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70. johnbluedog69
9:01 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Delawhere??? did somebody say Delaware???
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69. Pcroton
9:01 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
We'll see what it does. The RAP is pulling it east and then turns it vertical and expands it in response to pressure deepening at the coast. It's a fast evolver so we should know pretty quickly what it is going to do.


Meanwhile, Upton upped it's totals and MASS looks good now. NJ keeping the same map it has had all day. Thinking Upton could pull that 4-6 through all of eastern CT.









Upper levels have cooled significantly throughout the region. Lower levels on the way.














Well, that's it for now, the environment looks good, it's up to the evolution of the second disturbance as the evening progresses.

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68. originalLT
8:38 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
I see that "P", but I think it's going to pass well South of you, may only affect Delaware and southern NJ. --Going out to the gym , be back in 1and 1/2 hours.
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67. Pcroton
8:35 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Quoting 65. originalLT:
"P", not that confident about that "second" storm. The main precipitation shield is rapidly moving eastward and has reached near the Pa/Nj border. Only another hour or two left.--in my opinion.



Thatis is the end of the first disturbance, LT.

The second one is born out of that area of precip out in WV. That is the slug the RAP enhances and amplifies and winds up.





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66. Pcroton
8:33 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Well, this isn't promising. Ever since that 12Z GFS flipped what seem entirely out of bounds from previous runs and all models... well, this is what we see with Xmas morning snow depth. Wow...





GFS and EURO at 12Z the 22nd, 850mb temps. Similar.

Looks like a bust, huh?





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65. originalLT
8:26 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
"P", not that confident about that "second" storm. The main precipitation shield is rapidly moving eastward and has reached near the Pa/Nj border. Only another hour or two left.--in my opinion.
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64. Pcroton
8:25 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Subtract 5 hours from Z time for EST





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63. Pcroton
8:22 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Hi Jass, seems like if you trust the RAP that around 7PM it starts rolling, by Midnight is cranking, and then quickly pulls out by 2AM.



NE: There's the nice surprise for ya. Clipper turned storm. We may get our surprise as well if the 2nd disturbance performs as the RAP thinks so. So far the RAP has been on point today so I'd give it a decent faith at this point.


Meanwhile you must ALL check out THIS WIND PRODUCT MAP

You can click and drag the globe, you can double click to zoom in. You click the "Earth" tab to get the layers.

I haven't the words...you just gotta go see.



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62. NEwxguy
7:59 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
what seemed to be a minor little nuisance storm,is beginning to evolve into a fairly major snow event for us here in eastern new england,really looks like is taking shape just south LI.
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61. Jasspjesta
7:56 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Quoting 60. Pcroton:
Hope is there. RAP who picked up on the Temp profiles very well for my region (almost too well) are doing this the rest of the day.



Second disturbance for the win?
First disturbance for the win for New England?

Looks like we all win out?



P- what is the timing of the second disturbance. Up in Newark NJ for a meeting now that is supposed to end around 6 with a cocktail hour afterwards. Want to make sure not driving back to Southampton NJ in the thick of it.
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60. Pcroton
7:43 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Hope is there. RAP who picked up on the Temp profiles very well for my region (almost too well) are doing this the rest of the day.



Second disturbance for the win?
First disturbance for the win for New England?

Looks like we all win out?

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59. Pcroton
7:35 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Hi St. Aug thanks for dropping in.

Yeah it sure seems to be winding up quickly and New England may get their surprise now.

As for me here I think it may be dragging the cold front and cold air in. If the NWS is any indication they believe so with their extension of my WWA:


155 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING
* LOCATIONS...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA
AND ITS NEARBY SUBURBS TO NEW BRUNSWICK NEW JERSEY INCLUSIVE
OF ALL OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO THE COAST.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES... HIGHEST IN THE RARITAN
BASIN AND MONMOUTH COUNTY.



212 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

NOW
RAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SHOULD TURN TO A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW DURING MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. STRETCHES OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SHOULD DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 30S FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS.



===





The Rain/Snow line in central NJ is moving SE with the precip motion.

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58. StAugustineFL
6:57 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Hi P, just a drive by post here. Looking at radar south of LI, seems there's a rapidly intensifying surface low starting to get that "look" of a comma appearance (end of loop). Something to monitor throughout the day. I would think it would allow cold air to be pulled back down as it departs to the NE. May not be good news for you but this is looking like a good little system for those upstream.

Static loop.

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57. originalLT
6:53 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Sorry about that"P". I had/have little faith in that second system all along.
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56. Pcroton
6:52 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
Quoting 53. zotty:
there is a crazy temperature gradient out there right now...

Snowing in White Plains NY. Not heavy, not light, just moderate snow. Radar says it won't last but a nice coating is being laid down on everything- roads, trees, sidewalks. It's nice... and still only 23 degrees at White Plains Airport KHPN....



Welcome.


Yeah there is quite the difference out there!





Rutgers Maps




.
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55. Pcroton
6:48 PM GMT on December 17, 2013
We warmed significantly LT. We've been in a radar hole since the snow stopped. 42F now.







925MB level:




WAA doomed us.


==========================






WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON

THIS AFTERNOON
RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.


====


Busted well warm and wet of guidance and forecasting.


Is this stuff just west of NJ border out by Philly actually snow and is freezing line (front) swining through prior to it? If so then more snow. If the precip is just running into our warm air then here comes rain.





Sounds like NWS thinks absolutely nothing of the secondary disturbance aside from snow showers.

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